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At least 217 records · Page 12

Investigating drivers of microbial activity and respiration in a forested bog

Northern peatlands store nearly one-third of terrestrial carbon (C) stocks while covering only 3% of the global landmass; nevertheless, the drivers of C cycling in these often-waterlogged ecosystems are different from those that control C dynamics in upland forested soils. To explore how multiple abiotic and biotic characteristics of bogs interact to shape microbial activity in a northern, forested bog, we added a labile C tracer ( 13 C-labeled starch) to in situ peat mesocosms and correlated heterotrophic respiration with natural variation in several microbial predictor variables, such as enzyme activity and microbial biomass, as well as with a suite of abiotic variables and proximity to vascular plants aboveground. We found that peat moisture content was positively correlated with respiration and microbial activity, even when moisture levels exceeded total saturation, suggesting that access to organic matter substrates in drier environments may be limiting for microbial activity. Proximity to black spruce trees decreased total and labile heterotrophic respiration. This negative relationship may reflect the influence of tree evapotranspiration and peat shading effects; i.e., microbial activity may decline as peat dries and cools near trees. Here, we isolated the response of heterotrophic respiration to explore the variation in, and interactions among, multiple abiotic and biotic drivers that influence microbial activity. This approach allowed us to reveal the relative influence of individual drivers on C respiration in these globally important C sinks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Decadal-scale recovery of carbon stocks after wildfires throughout the boreal forests

Boreal forests store 30% of the world's terrestrial carbon (C). Consequently, climate change mediated alterations in the boreal forest fire regime can have a significant impact on the global C budget. Here, we synthesize the effects of forest fires on the stocks and recovery rates of C in boreal forests from 368 plots from 16 long-term (= 100 years) fire chronosequences spread throughout the boreal zone. The mean annual temperature varied from -9.5°C to +5.2°C and annual precipitation from 295 mm to 824 mm in the study sites. Total C stocks decreased on average by 60% (range from <10% to >80%) because of forest fires, primarily due to large declines in the living trees and O-layer C stocks. C emissions of fires ranged from 0.1 to 11.4 kg m-2, and in most cases, the emissions were < 4 kg m-2. Total C stocks increased with time since fire following a sigmoidal shape Gompertz function, and it took 125 years until an average asymptote of 8.1 kg C m-2 was reached. Total C stocks accumulated at a rate of 2–60 g m-2 yr-1 during the first 100 years. We found that potential evapotranspiration (PET) was significantly correlated with C stocks and their post-fire recovery, likely because it integrates temperature, radiation and the length of the growing season. If the fire return interval shortens to under 100 years in the future, this suggests that many boreal forests will be prevented from reaching their full C storage potential. However, our results suggest that climate warming-induced increases in PET may also speed up the post-fire recovery of C stocks.

carbon accumulation, carbon pools, chronosequence,↗

Impacts of Degradation on Water, Energy, and Carbon Cycling of the Amazon Tropical Forests

Selective logging, fragmentation, and understory fires directly degrade forest structure and composition. However, studies addressing the effects of forest degradation on carbon, water, and energy cycles are scarce. Here, we integrate field observations and high-resolution remote sensing from airborne lidar to provide realistic initial conditions to the Ecosystem Demography Model (ED-2.2) and investigate how disturbances from forest degradation affect gross primary production (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET), and sensible heat flux (H). We used forest structural information retrieved from airborne lidar samples (13,500 ha) and calibrated with 817 inventory plots (0.25 ha) across precipitation and degradation gradients in the eastern Amazon as initial conditions to ED-2.2 model. Our results show that the magnitude and seasonality of fluxes were modulated by changes in forest structure caused by degradation. During the dry season and under typical conditions, severely degraded forests (biomass loss ≥66%) experienced water stress with declines in ET (up to 34%) and GPP (up to 35%) and increases of H (up to 43%) and daily mean ground temperatures (up to 6.5°C) relative to intact forests. In contrast, the relative impact of forest degradation on energy, water, and carbon cycles markedly diminishes under extreme, multiyear droughts, as a consequence of severe stress experienced by intact forests. Our results highlight that the water and energy cycles in the Amazon are driven by not only climate and deforestation but also the past disturbance and changes of forest structure from degradation, suggesting a much broader influence of human land use activities on the tropical ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Growing Freshwater Lens in the Arctic Ocean With Sustained Climate Warming Disrupts Marine Ecosystem Function

One of the most robust changes in the hydrological cycle predicted by Earth System Models (ESMs) during the remainder of 21st century is an increase in the difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration (P-E) in arctic and boreal regions. We explore the long-term consequences of this change for marine ecosystems in the Arctic Ocean using the Community Earth System Model forced with a business as usual scenario of future greenhouse gas concentrations. We find that by the year 2300 increases in freshwater delivery considerably reduce Arctic Ocean surface salinity, creating a freshwater lens that has far-reaching impacts on marine biogeochemistry. The expanding freshwater lens limits vertical nutrient supply into the euphotic zone by enhancing vertical stratification and accelerating surface lateral mixing with surface waters in the North Atlantic, which become increasingly nutrient depleted from weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The resulting increase in nutrient stress reduces marine export production in the Arctic Ocean by 53% in 2300 relative to the 1990s and triggers a shift in community composition with small phytoplankton replacing diatoms. At the same time, the seasonal timing of export production undergoes a 2-month forward shift, with the peak advancing from July to May. This suggests that the threat to food webs and higher trophic levels may intensify after the year 2100 as gains in productivity from sea ice loss saturate and freshwater impacts on nutrient stress continue to strengthen. Our analysis highlights the critical importance of changing terrestrial hydrology and land-ocean coupling as drivers of long-term biogeochemical change in the Arctic Ocean and the necessity of multi-century climate change projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ecosystem-Level Energy and Water Budgets Are Resilient to Canopy Mortality in Sparse Semiarid Biomes

Climate-driven woody vegetation mortality is a defining feature of semiarid biomes that drives fundamental changes in ecosystem structure. However, the observed impacts of woody mortality on ecosystem-scale energy and water budgets and the responses of surviving vegetation are highly variable among studies in water-limited environments. A previous girdling manipulation experiment in a piñon-juniper woodland suggested that although ecosystem-scale evapotranspiration was not altered by large-scale piñon mortality, soil water content decreased and the surviving juniper experienced greater water stress than juniper in an undisturbed woodland. Here we experimentally explored to what extent mortality-induced changes in energy balance components can explain these results. We compared energy fluxes measured above two adjacent piñon-juniper woodlands where piñon girdling was implemented at one site and the other subsequently experienced large-scale natural piñon mortality. We found that the mortality-induced decrease in canopy area was not sufficient to alter surface reflectance, roughness, and partitioning between energy budget components at both sites. A radiative transfer model estimated that because of the sparse premortality canopy, surface reflectance is more sensitive to a large increase in understory leaf area than further loss of crown area. Increased water stress in the remaining juniper following both mortality events can be explained by an increase in radiation on the ground that promoted higher soil temperature and evaporation. We found similar responses of ecosystem and tree-level functions to both girdling and natural mortality. This suggests that girdling is an appropriate approach to explore the impact of tree mortality on ecosystem structure, function, and energy balance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Satellite Observations of the Tropical Terrestrial Carbon Balance and Interactions With the Water Cycle During the 21st Century

A constellation of satellites are now in orbit providing information about terrestrial carbon and water storage and fluxes. These combined observations show that the tropical biosphere has changed significantly in the last two decades from the combined effects of climate variability and land use. Large areas of forest have been cleared in both wet and dry forests, increasing the source of carbon to the atmosphere. Concomitantly, tropical fire emissions have declined, at least until 2016, from changes in land-use practices and rainfall, increasing the net carbon sink. Measurements of carbon stocks and fluxes from disturbance and recovery and of vegetation photosynthesis show significant regional variability of net biosphere exchange (NBE) and gross primary productivity (GPP) across the tropics and are tied to seasonal and interannual changes in water fluxes and storage. Comparison of satellite based estimates of evapotranspiration (ET), photosynthesis, and the deuterium content of water vapor with patterns of total water storage and rainfall demonstrate the presence of vegetation-atmosphere interactions and feedback mechanisms across tropical forests. However, these observations of stocks, fluxes and inferred interactions between them do not point unambiguously to either positive or negative feedbacks in carbon and water exchanges. These ambiguities highlight the need for assimilation of these new measurements with Earth System models for a consistent assessment of process interactions, along with focused field campaigns that integrate ground, aircraft and satellite measurements, to quantify the controlling carbon and water processes and their feedback mechanisms.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Estimating and Forecasting Time-Varying Groundwater Recharge in Fractured Rock: A State-Space Formulation with Preferential and Diffuse Flow to the Water Table

Rapid infiltration following precipitation may result in groundwater contamination from surface contaminants or pathogens. In fractured rock, contaminants can migrate rapidly to points of groundwater withdrawals. In contrast to the temporal availability of groundwater quality chemical indicators, meteorological and groundwater level observations are available in real-time to estimate time-varying recharge, which can act as a surrogate to identify periods of rapid infiltration that may indicate contamination susceptibility. Estimating recharge using methods, such as base-flow recession, unsaturated infiltration models, or Water-Table Fluctuations (WTF), cannot capitalize on currently available technologies and telecommunication infrastructure to conduct real-time recharge estimation at scales relevant to characterizing rapid infiltration. We present a linear, physics-based State-Space (SS) model of one-dimensional infiltration to estimate recharge, which includes preferential and diffuse-flow to the water table. The model can take advantage of real-time data for water-table altitude, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. Model parameters are calibrated over an observation period, and the Kalman Filter (KF) is subsequently applied to continuously update the observed (water-table altitude) and unobserved (groundwater recharge) system states and predict future states as new data become available. The SS/KF algorithm is demonstrated at the Masser Groundwater Recharge Site in Pennsylvania, USA and comparisons are made with recharge estimates from WTF methods. Model results indicate that the frequency of observations (daily versus sub-daily) dictates the allocation between preferential and diffuse flow. Additionally, because infiltration processes encompass many nonlinearities, model parameters estimated from observation periods need to be updated at least seasonally to account for changing recharge conditions.

groundwater, Recharge, infiltration, recursive est↗

Characterizing Drought Behavior in the Colorado River Basin Using Unsupervised Machine Learning

Drought is a pressing issue for the Colorado River Basin (CRB) due to the social and economic value of water resources in the region and the significant uncertainty of future drought under climate change. Here, we use climate simulations from various Earth System Models (ESMs) to force the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model and project multiple drought indicators for the sub-watersheds within the CRB. We apply an unsupervised machine learning (ML) based on Non-Negative Matrix Factorization using K-means clustering (NMFk) to synthesize the simulated historical, future, and change in drought indicators. The unsupervised ML approach can identify sub-watersheds where key changes to drought indicator behavior occur, including shifts in snowpack, snowmelt timing, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. While changes in future precipitation vary across ESMs, the results indicate that the Upper CRB will experience increasing evaporative demand and surface-water scarcity, with some locations experiencing a shift from a radiation-limited to a water-limited evaporation regime in the summer. Large shifts in peak runoff are observed in snowmelt-dominant sub-watersheds, with complete disappearance of the snowmelt signal for some sub-watersheds. The work demonstrates the utility of the NMFk algorithm to efficiently identify behavioral changes of drought indicators across space and time and to quickly analyze and interpret hydro climate model results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Large Divergence in Tropical Hydrological Projections Caused by Model Spread in Vegetation Responses to Elevated CO 2

Increasing atmospheric CO 2 and associated global warming are expected to alter the global hydrological cycle, thereby posing widespread threats to freshwater availability. However, future hydrological projections differ greatly between models, particularly over the tropical regions. The large difference between model projections directly limits policy planning efforts, and the responsible modeling processes remain unclear. Here, we identify the primary processes accounting for model differences in tropical hydrological changes using multiple CO 2 sensitivity experiments in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We show that differences in projected changes to tropical evapotranspiration, precipitation, and surface water availability mainly arise from model representations of vegetation cover and stomatal conductance responses to elevated CO 2 and associated changes in atmospheric moisture and circulation. Atmospheric responses to sea surface warming contribute additionally to the divergence in hydrological projections. Given the importance of vegetation responses to elevated CO 2 and associated atmosphere feedbacks, our results underscore the need to improve representations of the vegetation physiological response to rising CO 2 and its coupling to the atmosphere, to provide reliable tropical hydrological projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Vegetation Response to Rising CO 2 Amplifies Contrasts in Water Resources Between Global Wet and Dry Land Areas

Rising atmospheric CO 2 impacts on vegetation physiological processes can alter land feedbacks on precipitation and water resources, but understanding of regional differences in these changes is uncertain. We investigate the impact of rising CO 2 on land water resources for different wetness levels using four Earth system models. We find an overall tendency of runoff to increase across all wetness levels. However, runoff increases in wet regions are much larger than those in dry regions, especially in wet seasons. This substantial amplification of contrasts between wet and dry regions increases at 3% per 100 ppm increase in CO 2 relative to the historical period, reaching 18% for a quadrupling of CO 2 , quantified by a new wetting contrast index (WCI). Physiological effects suppress evapotranspiration more in wet than dry regions, which has a larger contribution than radiative forcing to the amplification of runoff contrast, reshaping the spatial distribution of future land water resources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Earth System Model Overestimation of Cropland Temperatures Scales With Agricultural Intensity

Intensive crop growth can modify regional climate by partitioning energy to latent heating through transpiration, cooling growing season temperatures. Recent work shows that cooling associated with agriculture can dampen anthropogenic warming over breadbasket regions. However, it is unknown whether climate models reproduce crop influences on regional climate, and thus the future risk of extreme climate events over global breadbasket regions. Here, we show that models overestimate growing season temperatures and underestimate evapotranspiration (ET) over global croplands, and that these differences increase with cropped area. We trace this warm and dry difference through each model's representation of the surface energy budget, showing that model differences in transpiration, leaf area index, and the ratio of transpiration to total ET drive the overall effect. While the implications of these model deficiencies for future projections are uncertain, they point to the importance of improving representations of crop-climate processes to better assess breadbasket vulnerability to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Amazonian Moisture Recycling Revisited Using WRF With Water Vapor Tracers

Previous studies have estimated that 25%–35% of Amazonian precipitation comes from evapotranspiration (ET) within the basin. However, due to simplifying assumptions of traditional models, these studies primarily focus on large spatial and temporal scales. This study is the first to analyze the moisture of Amazonian origin at the annual to daily timescale in four different subregions of the Amazon. We analyze the sources, sinks and stores of moisture that originates as Amazonian ET. To do this, we use the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) regional meteorological model with the added capability of water vapor tracers to track this moisture. Moisture of Amazonian origin shows strong annual and semi-annual signals, with contrasting behavior between the northern and southern parts of the basin. The tracers reveal a strong diurnal cycle of Amazonian water vapor which had not been previously reported. This signal is related to the diurnal cycle of ET, convective precipitation and advected moisture. ET's contribution to atmospheric moisture increases from early morning into the afternoon. Some of this moisture is rained out through convective storms in the early evening. Later in the night and following morning, strong winds associated with the South American Low Level Jet advect moisture downwind. Overall, the beating pattern becomes apparent when visualizing the Amazonian water vapor as an animation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Amazon and La Plata River Basins as Moisture Sources of South America: Climatology and Intraseasonal Variability

Abstract Land‐atmosphere interactions are critical for precipitation (PPT) over South America where terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) constitutes a significant fraction of moisture for rainfall over the ecologically and socio‐economically vital Amazon (AMZ) and La Plata (LPB) river basins. We quantify the contribution of ET from AMZ and LPB to PPT over the continent with a focus on the intraseasonal time scale. Using numerical water tracers embedded in the Weather Research and Forecasting model we track the moisture originating from the two basins. Our findings indicate that approximately 40% of annual rainfall over the eastern foothills of the Andes originates as AMZ ET, and nearly 30% of rainfall over northern Argentina originates as LPB ET. Analysis of moisture transport during both phases of the dominant intraseasonal oscillation pattern over South America reveals an intraseasonal “sloshing” of LPB moisture between the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) and southeastern South America (SESA) regions. AMZ and LPB each supply approximately 6% of moisture for SACZ PPT during periods of intraseasonal enhancement (positive anomalies), highlighting the importance of moisture from the Atlantic Ocean. For the SESA region, LPB supplies 26% of the moisture for PPT during periods of intraseasonal enhancement while AMZ supplies 5%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Diurnal rainfall response to the physiological and radiative effects of CO 2 in tropical forests in the Energy exascale earth system model v1

Understanding how the connection between rainfall and tropical forests will respond to increasing CO$_2$ concentrations is a key element in understanding how the tropical water cycle will respond to increasing CO$_2$. The plant physiological and radiative impacts of CO$_2$ on rainfall patterns over tropical forest regions are examined in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1.1 (E3SMv1.1-BGC) biogeochemistry experiments. Composite analysis reveals a dampening of the diurnal cycle of rainfall over the Amazon, Congo, and Maritime Continent in response to rising CO$_2$ levels, regardless of the sign of total rainfall change. A full factorial model experiment confirms that the CO$_2$ radiative and CO$_2$ plant physiological effects can individually or jointly reduce the magnitude of the rainfall diurnal cycle, though the physical pathway giving rise to the reduction differs between the two effects. For the physiological response, stomatal closure reduces evapotranspiration, which dries the boundary layer and raises the lifting condensation level. These effects combine to reduce deep convective rainfall during its peak occurrence in the late daytime to early nighttime period. For the radiative response, a relative reduction in daytime CAPE (consistent with a reduction in the diurnal temperature range) leads to less frequent triggering of deep convection and a reduction of rainfall diurnal amplitude. These diurnal rainfall changes are structurally similar across seasons, and show little sensitivity to representation of nutrient coupling for the land biogeochemistry. In agreement with previous findings, the physiological response has only minor impact on extreme rainfall relative to the radiative response.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Root Foraging Alters Global Patterns of Ecosystem Legacy From Climate Perturbations

The response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate perturbations typically persist longer than the timescale of the forcing, a phenomenon broadly referred to as legacy. Understanding the strength of legacy is critical for predicting ecosystem sensitivity to climate extremes and the extent that persistent changes in surface-atmosphere exchange might feedback onto climate. The cause of ecosystem legacy has been associated with myriad factors such as changes in aboveground biomass, however, few studies have tested how changes in the depth distribution of fine roots in response to perturbation might alter an ecosystem's recovery time. We explore this question using an Earth System Model that includes a dynamic root module where vegetation can forage for water and nutrients by altering their root profiles. The global simulations presented here show that in response to water stress events most ecosystems deepen their root profiles. In semi-arid ecosystems, this response expedites recovery (i.e., less legacy) relative to simulations without dynamics roots because access to deeper water pools after the initial event remains favorable. In wetter ecosystems, the development of deeper root profiles slows down the recovery timescale (i.e., more legacy) because the deeper root profile reduces access to nutrients and is thus unfavorable. Here, the simulations show that while the inclusion of dynamic roots might only minimally affect global patterns of Gross Primary Productivity and Evapotranspiration, the shift in root profile alters the timescale of recovery. Studies interested in the sustained response of land surfaces fluxes to climate disturbances should consider models that include dynamic root capability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Combined Effects of Stream Hydrology and Land Use on Basin‐Scale Hyporheic Zone Denitrification in the Columbia River Basin

Abstract Denitrification in the hyporheic zone (HZ) of river corridors is crucial to removing excess nitrogen in rivers from anthropogenic activities. However, previous modeling studies of the effectiveness of river corridors in removing excess nitrogen via denitrification were often limited to the reach‐scale and low‐order stream watersheds. We developed a basin‐scale river corridor model for the Columbia River Basin with random forest models to identify the dominant factors associated with the spatial variation of HZ denitrification. Our modeling results suggest that the combined effects of hydrologic variability in reaches and substrate availability influenced by land use are associated with the spatial variability of modeled HZ denitrification at the basin scale. Hyporheic exchange flux can explain most of spatial variation of denitrification amounts in reaches of different sizes, while among the reaches affected by different land uses, the combination of hyporheic exchange flux and stream dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration can explain the denitrification differences. Also, we can generalize that the most influential watershed and channel variables controlling denitrification variation are channel morphology parameters (median grain size (D50), stream slope), climate (annual precipitation and evapotranspiration), and stream DOC‐related parameters (percent of shrub area). The modeling framework in our study can serve as a valuable tool to identify the limiting factors in removing excess nitrogen pollution in large river basins where direct measurement is often infeasible.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Earlier Ecological Drought Detection by Involving the Interaction of Phenology and Eco-Physiological Function

Meteorological drought indices like the Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI) are frequently used to diagnose “ecological drought,” despite the fact that they were not explicitly designed for this purpose. More recently developed indices like the Evaporative Stress Index (ESI), which is based on the degree of coupling between actual to potential evapotranspiration, may better capture dynamic plant response to moisture limitations. However, the skill of these indices at describing plant water stress is rarely evaluated at sub-seasonal timescales over which drought evolves. Moreover, it remains unclear how variability in phenological timing impacts and complicates early drought detection. Here, we compared the ability of ESI and SPEI to reflect the dynamics of ecological drought in forests and grasslands, based on anomalies of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), surface conductance (G s , a proxy for stomatal conductance), soil moisture, and vapor pressure deficit. ESI performed better than SPEI in capturing the dynamics of GPP and G s , but still missed early ecological drought signals due to biases linked to earlier onset of spring leaf development. Thus, we developed a modified variant of the ESI (ESI LAI ) that accounts for the complicating effects of phenological shifts in leaf area index (LAI). The ESI LAI detected drought onset up to 7–10 weeks earlier than SPEI and ESI. Additionally, drought onset dates determined from ESI LAI are close to (±2 weeks) the dates determined from LAI-corrected anomalies of G s , and GPP, as well as the onset dates of soil water deficit and atmospheric aridity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Causes of Missing Snowmelt Following Drought

Abstract Water management in snowy mountainous regions hinges on forecasting snowmelt runoff. However, droughts are altering snowpack‐runoff relationships with ongoing debate about the driving mechanisms. For example, in 2021 in California, less than half of predicted streamflow arrived. Mechanisms proposed for this “missing” streamflow included changes in evapotranspiration ( ET ), rainfall, and subsurface moisture conditions. Here, we demonstrate that ET in drought years generates dry subsurface conditions that reduce runoff in subsequent years. A model including this legacy of depleted moisture storage reduced median error in 2021 forecasts from 60% to 20% at 15 minimally disturbed basins and from 18% to 2% at 6 water supply basins in the Sierra Nevada (basins range in area from 5 to 23,051 km 2 and mean annual precipitation from 814 to 1,549 mm). Our findings indicate that the relationship between snowpack and runoff will evolve as plant ecosystems respond to climate change and alter subsurface water storage dynamics.

Lapides, Dana A.↗