Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “event localization”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

An Inventory of AI-ready Benchmark Data for US Fires, Heatwaves, and Droughts

Extreme weather events, including fires, heatwaves, and droughts, have significant impacts on earth, environmental, and energy systems. Mechanistic and predictive understanding, as well as probabilistic risk assessment of these extreme weather events, are crucial for detecting, planning for, and responding to these extremes. Records of extreme weather events provide an important data source for understanding present and future extremes, but the existing data needs preprocessing before it can be used for analysis. Moreover, there are many nonstandard metrics defining the levels of severity or impacts of extremes. In this study, we compile a comprehensive benchmark data inventory of extreme weather events, including fires, heatwaves, and droughts. The dataset covers the period from 2001 to 2020 with a daily temporal resolution and a spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5° (~55km×55km) over the continental United States (CONUS), and a spatial resolution of 1km × 1km over the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region, together with the co-located and relevant meteorological variables. By exploring and summarizing the spatial and temporal patterns of these extremes in various forms of marginal, conditional, and joint probability distributions, we gain a better understanding of the characteristics of climate extremes. The resulting AI/ML-ready data products can be readily applied to ML-based research, fostering and encouraging AI/ML research in the field of extreme weather. This study can contribute significantly to the advancement of extreme weather research, aiding researchers, policymakers, and practitioners in developing improved preparedness and response strategies to protect communities and ecosystems from the adverse impacts of extreme weather events. Usage Notes We presented a long term (2001-2020) and comprehensive data inventory of historical extreme events with daily temporal resolution covering the separate spatial extents of CONUS (0.5°×0.5°) and PNW(1km×1km) for various applications and studies. The dataset with 0.5°×0.5° resolution for CONUS can be used to help build more accurate climate models for the entire CONUS, which can help in understanding long-term climate trends, including changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, predicting future extreme events as well as understanding the implications of extreme events on society and the environment. The data can also be applied for risk accessment of the extremes. For example, ML/AI models can be developed to predict wildfire risk or forecast HWs by analyzing historical weather data, and past fires or heateave , allowing for early warnings and risk mitigation strategies. Using this dataset, AI-driven risk assessment models can also be built to identify vulnerable energy and utilities infrastructure, imrpove grid resilience and suggest adaptations to withstand extreme weather events. The high-resolution 1km×1km dataset ove PNW are advantageous for real-time, localized and detailed applications. It can enhance the accuracy of early warning systems for extreme weather events, helping authorities and communities prepare for and respond to disasters more effectively. For example, ML models can be developed to provide localized HW predictions for specific neighborhoods or cities, enabling residents and local emergency services to take targeted actions; the assessment of drought severity in specific communities or watersheds within the PNW can help local authorities manage water resources more effectively.

Lin, Xinming↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating downscaled products with expected hydroclimatic co-variances

Abstract. There has been widespread adoption of downscaled products amongst practitioners and stakeholders to ascertain risk from climate hazards at the local scale (e.g., ∼ 5 km resolution). Such products must nevertheless be consistent with physical laws to be credible and of value to users. Here we evaluate statistically and dynamically downscaled products by examining local co-evolution of downscaled temperature and precipitation during convective and frontal precipitation events (two mechanisms testable with just temperature and precipitation). We find that two widely used statistical downscaling techniques (Localized Constructed Analogs version 2, LOCA2, and Seasonal Trends and Analysis of Residuals Empirical Statistical Downscaling Model, STAR-ESDM) generally preserve expected co-variances during convective precipitation events over the historical and future projected intervals as compared to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) and two observation-based data products (Livneh and nClimGrid-Daily). However, both techniques dampen future intensification of frontal precipitation that is otherwise robustly captured in global climate models (i.e., prior to downscaling) and with process-based dynamical downscaling across five different regional climate models. In the case of LOCA2, this leads to appreciable underestimation of future frontal precipitation event intensity. This study is one of the first to quantify a likely ramification of the stationarity assumption underlying statistical downscaling methods and identify a phenomenon where projections of future change diverge depending on data production method employed. Finally, our work proposes expected co-variances during convective and frontal precipitation as useful evaluation diagnostics that can be universally applied to a wide range of statistically downscaled products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

HANDBOOK BEST PRACTICES FOR ORGANIZING PUBLIC E WASTE COLLECTION EVENTS Indoor and Outdoor Settings

This handbook was created to share best practices of organizing public e-waste collection events in the United States. The steps and checklists outlined in this handbook have been drawn from Sunnking’s decade’s long experience of organizing large scale outdoor collection events in New York. These practices have been verified by INL and ECyclers of Idaho to work well for both indoor and outdoor events in Idaho at a smaller scale. Understanding that the local conditions vary significantly, we have compiled key deciding factors to share in this handbook. We hope that by following these steps, you will succeed in organizing your own events. Although e-waste events typically require careful logistics planning due to the nature of the materials, the experience is very rewarding to bring the community together.

Collection Event↗
DOE OSTI2026

Search for the chiral magnetic effect through beam energy dependence of charge separation using event shape selection

High-energy, heavy-ion collisions can create local domains of chirality-imbalanced quarks, reflecting the topological features of quantum chromodynamics. The chiral magnetic effect (CME) predicts an electric charge separation of quarks in such topological domains along the magnetic field ($\vec{B}$) generated by the passing of two high-Z nuclei. Here, we use a correlation observable Δ⁢𝛾$^{112}$ between charged meson pairs to detect the CME-induced charge separation and a novel event shape selection (ESS) method to mitigate the background effects related to elliptic flow (𝑣 2 ). The ESS method classifies events based on the emission pattern of final-state particles and determines Δ⁢𝛾$^{112}_{ESS}$ from the zero-flow limit. We reconstruct the $\vec{B}$ field direction from the spectator nucleons, which minimizes backgrounds unrelated to the collective motion of the system. In this work, we report the measurements of Δ⁢𝛾$^{112}$ and a background indicator Δ⁢𝛾$^{132}$ in Au+Au collisions from the Brookhaven National Laboratory Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) Beam Energy Scan phase II and at the top RHIC energy. After background suppression, Δ⁢𝛾$^{132}_{ESS}$ aligns with zero, and Δ⁢𝛾$^{112}_{ESS}$ is reduced to no more than 20% of Δ⁢𝛾$^{112}$. We observe a finite residual charge separation with 2.5⁢𝜎, 3⁢𝜎, and 3.2⁢𝜎 significance in the 20–50% centrality range of Au + Au collisions at 11.5, 14.6, and 19.6 GeV. The results at 17.3 and 27 GeV also show positive values but with a lower significance of 1.3⁢𝜎 and 1.1⁢𝜎, respectively. The corresponding Δ⁢𝛾$^{112}_{ESS}$ values at 7.7, 9.2, and 200 GeV are consistent with zero within uncertainties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multiple Sources of Solar High-energy Protons

During the 24th solar cycle, the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) has observed a total of 27 solar flares possessing delayed γ -ray emission, including the exceptionally well-observed flare and coronal mass ejection (CME) on 2017 September 10. Based on the Fermi/LAT data, we plot, for the first time, maps of possible sources of the delayed >100 MeV γ -ray emission of the 2017 September 10 event. The long-lasting γ -ray emission is localized under the CME core. The γ -ray spectrum exhibits intermittent changes in time, implying that more than one source of high-energy protons was formed during the flare–CME eruption. We find a good statistical correlation between the γ -ray fluences of the Fermi/LAT-observed delayed events and the products of corresponding CME speed and the square root of the soft X-ray flare magnitude. Data support the idea that both flares and CMEs jointly contribute to the production of subrelativistic and relativistic protons near the Sun.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

J-PLUS: Uncovering a large population of extreme [OIII] emitters in the local Universe

Over the past decades, several studies have discovered a population of galaxies that undergo very strong star formation events. They are called extreme emission line galaxies (EELGs). We exploit the capabilities of the Javalambre Photometric Local Universe Survey (J-PLUS), a wide-field multifilter survey, with which 2000 square degrees of the northern sky are already observed. We use it to identify EELGs at low redshift by their [OIII]5007 emission line. We intend to provide a more complete, deep, and less biased sample of local EELGs. We selected objects with an excess of flux in the J-PLUS medium-band J0515 filter, which covers the [OIII] line at z < 0.06. We removed contaminants (stars and higher-redshift systems) using J-PLUS and WISE infrared photometry, with SDSS spectra as a benchmark. We performed spectral energy distribution fitting to estimate the physical properties of the galaxies: line fluxes, equivalent widths (EWs), masses, stellar population ages, and so on. We identify 466 EELGs at z < 0.06 with [OIII] EW over 300 Å and an r-band magnitude below 20, of which 411 were previously unknown. Most show compact morphologies, low stellar masses (log(M • /M ⊙ ) ~ 8.13 –0.58 +0.61 ), low dust extinction (E( B–V ) ~ 0.1 –0.1 +0.2 ), and very young bursts of star formation (3.0 –2.0 +2.7 Myr). Our method is up to ~20 times more efficient in detecting EELGs per Mpc 3 than broadband surveys, and it is as complete as magnitude-limited spectroscopic surveys (but reaches fainter objects). The sample is not directly biased against strong Hα emitters, in contrast with works using broadband surveys. We demonstrate that J-PLUS can identify a large sample of previously unknown EELGs showing unique properties following a clear selection process. A fraction of the EELGs are probably similar to the first galaxies in the Universe, but they are at a much lower redshift, which makes them ideal targets for follow-up studies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying Moisture Sources of Arctic Atmospheric Rivers During the Recent Historical Period

Atmospheric rivers (ARs), filaments of intense atmospheric moisture transport, play a significant role in delivering moisture poleward into the Arctic and triggering weather extremes. Although previous studies have focused on large‐scale circulations driving these events, this study investigates ARs through attributing their moisture sources using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) with moisture‐tagging capability. Examining ARs in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors of the Arctic separately revealed distinct contributions from remote versus local, and ocean versus land, moisture sources. Unlike non‐AR events, Arctic ARs primarily draw moisture from their respective ocean basins in lower‐latitude regions during the cold season, and shift to land sources in the warm season. Cold‐season ARs in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors source 73.2% and 85.3% of their moisture from their respective ocean basins at lower latitudes, however warm‐season contributions decrease to 41.3% and 29.4%. In contrast, mid‐ and high‐latitude continents combined contribute 40.1% and 51.3% in the warm season. Trajectory clustering analysis shows that AR moisture sources depend on both their genesis regions and transport pathways. In recent decades, the Arctic has experienced a moistening trend in both the cold and warm seasons. Our results suggest that local and remote sources equally drive the observed cold‐season moistening, whereas remote sources predominantly drive the warm‐season moistening. A better understanding of Arctic AR moisture sources under current climate conditions provides valuable insights into their potential future changes amid the projected heterogeneous northern hemispheric warming.

Arctic↗
DOE OSTI2022

The influence of recent and future climate change on spring Arctic cyclones

In recent decades, the Arctic has experienced rapid atmospheric warming and sea ice loss, with an ice-free Arctic projected by the end of this century. Cyclones are synoptic weather events that transport heat and moisture into the Arctic, and have complex impacts on sea ice, and the local and global climate. However, the effect of a changing climate on Arctic cyclone behavior remains poorly understood. This study uses high resolution (4 km), regional modeling techniques and downscaled global climate reconstructions and projections to examine how recent and future climatic changes alter cyclone behavior. Results suggest that recent climate change has not yet had an appreciable effect on Arctic cyclone characteristics. However, future sea ice loss and increasing surface temperatures drive large increases in the near-surface temperature gradient, sensible and latent heat fluxes, and convection during cyclones. The future climate can alter cyclone trajectories and increase and prolong intensity with greatly augmented wind speeds, temperatures, and precipitation. Such changes in cyclone characteristics could exacerbate sea ice loss and Arctic warming through positive feedbacks. The increasing extreme nature of these weather events has implications for local ecosystems, communities, and socio-economic activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

HL-2A's ELM cycle simulations by integrating BOUT++'s drift MHD and transport code

A new integrating model has been developed to couple tokamak edge multiscale magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) events and transport simulations, such as edge-localized mode (ELM) cycles. As a proof of principle, we first start from a set of three-field two-fluid model equations, which includes the pressure, current, and vorticity. Here, the equations are separated into the slowly evolving part of the axisymmetric component by taking a time average of the axisymmetric component. The time-averaged fluxes, which are quadratic in fluctuating quantities, act as driven terms for the time-averaged axisymmetric quantities that determine the plasma transport, and therefore the large-scale evolution of the plasma profiles. Then the HL-2A's ELM cycles are simulated using the model. Good agreements of ELM size and pedestal recovery time have been achieved for the solutions obtained from the coupled simulation compared with experiment. For one ELM cycle simulation, the coupled code can achieve a speedup of a factor of up to 30 over standalone code.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

In Situ Micro-Pillar Compression to Examine Radiation-Induced Hardening Mechanisms of FeCrAl Alloys

Here, the effects of 5 MeV Fe 2+ ion irradiation at 300°C on the microstructure evolution and deformation behavior of a FeCrAl C26M alloy are presented. It has been found that dislocation loop density increases an order of magnitude from 1 dpa to 16 dpa irradiations, whereas, the dislocation loop size saturates with increasing damage. Micropillars, 600 nm in diameter and 1.3 µm in height, were fabricated and compressed inside grains with <001>, <011> and <111> crystallographic orientations, respectively. {112} <111> has been identified as the primary slip system in both unirradiated and irradiated alloy. The increase in yield stress after irradiation is observed with measurable variation along <001> and <011> vs. along <111>. By applying the Orowan dispersed barrier model, the increase of yield stress is found mainly due to the slip resistance of radiation generated defect loops. Detailed transmission electron microscopy (TEM) studies were performed to quantify the Burgers vector and the distribution of irradiation induced dislocations at elevated strains. It is revealed that localized shear instability is caused by avalanche slip events of ½<111> dislocations gliding out of tested pillars. Simultaneously, a large number of sessile/immobile <100> dislocations formed in the vicinity of slip band, leading to the hardening at elevated strains.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Functional diversification within the heme-binding split-barrel family

Due to neofunctionalization, a single fold can be identified in multiple proteins that have distinct molecular functions. Depending on the time that has passed since gene duplication and the number of mutations, the sequence similarity between functionally divergent proteins can be relatively high, eroding the value of sequence similarity as the sole tool for accurately annotating the function of uncharacterized homologs. Here, we combine bioinformatic approaches with targeted experimentation to reveal a large multifunctional family of putative enzymatic and nonenzymatic proteins involved in heme metabolism. This family (homolog of HugZ (HOZ)) is embedded in the “FMN-binding split barrel” superfamily and contains separate groups of proteins from prokaryotes, plants, and algae, which bind heme and either catalyze its degradation or function as nonenzymatic heme sensors. In prokaryotes these proteins are often involved in iron assimilation, whereas several plant and algal homologs are predicted to degrade heme in the plastid or regulate heme biosynthesis. In the plant Arabidopsis thaliana, which contains two HOZ subfamilies that can degrade heme in vitro (HOZ1 and HOZ2), disruption of AtHOZ1 (AT3G03890) or AtHOZ2A (AT1G51560) causes developmental delays, pointing to important biological roles in the plastid. In the tree Populus trichocarpa, a recent duplication event of a HOZ1 ancestor has resulted in localization of a paralog to the cytosol. Structural characterization of this cytosolic paralog and comparison to published homologous structures suggests conservation of heme-binding sites. This study unifies our understanding of the sequence-structure-function relationships within this multilineage family of heme-binding proteins and presents new molecular players in plant and bacterial heme metabolism.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Projected Changes to Cool‐Season Storm Tides in the 21st Century Along the Northeastern United States Coast

Abstract This study investigates changes and uncertainties to cool‐season (November‐March) storm tides along the U.S. northeast coast in the 21st century under the high RCP8.5 emission scenario compared to late 20th century. A high‐fidelity (50‐m coastal resolution) hydrodynamic storm tide model is forced with three dynamically downscaled regional climate models (RCMs) over three decadal periods (historical, mid‐21st century, and late‐21st century) to project future changes in peak storm tide elevations at coastal counties in the region. While there is no absolute consensus on future changes to storm tides, for any one future decade two out of the three RCMs project an increase at counties along the Hudson River, Delaware River, and northern Chesapeake Bay due to more intense cyclones that track inland of these locations leading to favorable surge generating conditions. The same RCMs also project a decrease at counties facing the open ocean in the mid‐Atlantic Bight as cyclone densities just offshore of the coastline decrease, particularly by late‐century. The greater tidal range in northern areas of the region leads to uncertainty in the magnitude and sign of the projected changes to storm tide levels due to the arbitrary timing of the local tidal stage and the surge‐producing weather event. This random tide‐weather timing is less important in the Chesapeake Bay and unimportant in Albemarle Sound and Pamlico Sound. Similar to other recent studies, we highlight that sea level rise is likely to be more critical than storm climatology for future changes to the cool‐season coastal flooding potential.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Broadband X-ray burst spectroscopy of the fast-radio-burst-emitting Galactic magnetar

Magnetars are young, magnetically powered neutron stars that possess the strongest magnetic fields in the Universe. Fast radio bursts (FRBs) are extremely intense millisecond-long radio pulses of primarily extragalactic origin, and a leading attribution for their genesis focuses on magnetars. A hallmark signature of magnetars is their emission of bright, hard X-ray bursts of sub-second duration. On 27 April 2020, the Galactic magnetar SGR J1935+2154 emitted hundreds of X-ray bursts within a few hours. One of these temporally coincided with an FRB, the first known detection of an FRB from the Milky Way. Here, we present spectral and temporal analyses of 24 X-ray bursts emitted 13 hours prior to the FRB and seen simultaneously with the Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER) mission of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and with the Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM) mission in their combined energy range of 0.2 keV to 30 MeV. These broadband spectra permit direct comparison with the spectrum of the FRB-associated X-ray burst (FRB-X). We demonstrate that all 24 NICER and GBM bursts are very similar temporally to the FRB-X, but strikingly different spectrally. The singularity of the FRB-X burst is perhaps indicative of an uncommon locale for its origin. We suggest that this event originated in quasi-polar open or closed magnetic field lines that extend to high altitudes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Differential roles of kinetic on- and off-rates in T-cell receptor signal integration revealed with a modified Fab’-DNA ligand

Antibody-derived T-cell receptor (TCR) agonists are commonly used to activate T cells. While antibodies can trigger TCRs regardless of clonotype, they bypass native T cell signal integration mechanisms that rely on monovalent, membrane-associated, and relatively weakly binding ligand in the context of cellular adhesion. Commonly used antibodies and their derivatives bind much more strongly than native peptide major histocompatibility complex (pMHC) ligands bind their cognate TCRs. Because ligand dwell time is a critical parameter that tightly correlates with physiological function of the TCR signaling system, there is a general need, both in research and therapeutics, for universal TCR ligands with controlled kinetic binding parameters. To this end, we have introduced point mutations into recombinantly expressed α-TCRβ H57 Fab to modulate the dwell time of monovalent Fab binding to TCR. When tethered to a supported lipid bilayer via DNA complementation, these monovalent Fab’-DNA ligands activate T cells with potencies well-correlated with their TCR binding dwell time. Single-molecule tracking studies in live T cells reveal that individual binding events between Fab'-DNA ligands and TCRs elicit local signaling responses closely resembling native pMHC. The unique combination of high on- and off-rates of the H57 R97L mutant enables direct observations of cooperative interplay between ligand binding and TCR-proximal condensation of the linker for activation of T cells, which is not readily visualized with pMHC. This work provides insights into how T cells integrate kinetic information from TCR ligands and introduces a method to develop affinity panels for polyclonal T cells, such as cells from a human patient.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Benchmarking machine learning strategies for phase-field problems

Abstract We present a comprehensive benchmarking framework for evaluating machine-learning approaches applied to phase-field problems. This framework focuses on four key analysis areas crucial for assessing the performance of such approaches in a systematic and structured way. Firstly, interpolation tasks are examined to identify trends in prediction accuracy and accumulation of error over simulation time. Secondly, extrapolation tasks are also evaluated according to the same metrics. Thirdly, the relationship between model performance and data requirements is investigated to understand the impact on predictions and robustness of these approaches. Finally, systematic errors are analyzed to identify specific events or inadvertent rare events triggering high errors. Quantitative metrics evaluating the local and global description of the microstructure evolution, along with other scalar metrics representative of phase-field problems, are used across these four analysis areas. This benchmarking framework provides a path to evaluate the effectiveness and limitations of machine-learning strategies applied to phase-field problems, ultimately facilitating their practical application.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Inclusive Search for Anomalous Single-Photon Production in MicroBooNE

We present an inclusive search for anomalous production of single-photon events from neutrino interactions in the MicroBooNE experiment. The search and its signal definition are motivated by the previous observation of a low-energy excess of electromagnetic shower events from the MiniBooNE experiment. We use the Wire-Cell reconstruction framework to select a sample of inclusive single-photon final-state interactions with a final efficiency and purity of 7.0% and 40.2%, respectively. We leverage simultaneous measurements of sidebands of charged current 𝜈 𝜇 interactions and neutral current interactions producing 𝜋 0 mesons to constrain signal and background predictions and reduce uncertainties. We perform a blind analysis using a dataset collected from February 2016 to July 2018, corresponding to an exposure of 6.34 × 10 20 protons on target from the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab. In the full signal region, we observe agreement between the data and the prediction, with a goodness-of-fit 𝑝 value of 0.11. We then isolate a subsample of these events containing no visible protons, and observe 93 ± 22⁢(stat) ±35⁢(syst) data events above prediction, corresponding to just above 2⁢𝜎 local significance, concentrated at shower energies below 600 MeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Removing solar artifacts from Geostationary Lightning Mapper data to document lightning extremes

Here, we compare the performance of three different filters that identify solar artifacts in the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) data. These filters differ in their complexity and intended use. We use the most appropriate filters to document the severity of GLM solar contamination and to compute the frequency of extreme Americas lightning. Solar artifacts occur at an average rate of one every ~8 min. Due to their continuous emissions across a portion of the GLM CCD array, these events disproportionately contribute to the GLM event and group rates. Up to 40% of all events recorded between 10:00 and 12:00 local time during 2018 were solar artifacts. The frequency-domain solar filter also reveals a carrier wave at 50 to 60 Hz in some lightning flashes and solar episodes that appears to be anthropogenic in origin. Removing the relatively frequent solar artifact cases reveals rare cases of extreme lightning flashes. Exceptional flashes on the order of 500+ km in length and 10+ s in duration only occur a few times per year and are produced by storms that are predisposed for exceptional lightning rather than as single random occurrences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Distances to Prompt Effects for a Nuclear Device

In 2010, nuclear weapon effects experts at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) were asked to provide a quick reference document containing estimated prompt nuclear effects. This report is an update to the 2010 document that includes updated model assumptions. This report addresses only the prompt effects associated with a nuclear detonation (e.g., blast, thermal fluence, and prompt ionizing radiation). The potential medium- and longer-term health effects associated with nuclear fallout are not considered in this report because, in part, of the impracticality of making generic estimates given the high dependency of fallout predictions on the local meteorological conditions at the time of the event. The results included in this report also do not consider the urban environment (e.g., shielding by or collapse of structures) which may affect the extent of prompt effects. It is important to note that any operational recommendations made using the estimates in this report are limited by the generic assumptions considered in the analysis and should not replace analyses made for a specific scenario/device. Furthermore, nuclear effects experts (John Hogan, SNL, and Byron Ristvet, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA)) have indicated that the accuracy of effects predictions below 0.5 kilotons (kT) or 500 tons nuclear yield have greater uncertainty because of the limited data available for the prompt effects in this regime. The Specialized Hazard Assessment Response Capability (SHARC) effects prediction tool was used for these analyses. Specifically, the NUKE model within SHARC 2021 Version 10.2 was used. NUKE models only the prompt effects following a nuclear detonation. The algorithms for predicting range-to-output data contained within the NUKE model are primarily based on nuclear test effects data. Probits have been derived from nuclear test data and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) protective action guides. Probits relate the probability of a hazard (e.g., fatality or injury) caused by a given insult (e.g., overpressure, thermal fluence, dose level). Several probits have been built into SHARC to determine the fatality and injury associated with a given level of insult. Some of these probits differ with varying yield. Such probits were used to develop the tables and plots in this report.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗