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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1994

Integrated active and passive control design methodology for the LaRC CSI evolutionary model

A general design methodology to integrate active control with passive damping was demonstrated on the NASA LaRC CSI Evolutionary Model (CEM), a ground testbed for future large, flexible spacecraft. Vibration suppression controllers designed for Line-of Sight (LOS) minimization were successfully implemented on the CEM. A frequency-shaped H2 methodology was developed, allowing the designer to specify the roll-off of the MIMO compensator. A closed loop bandwidth of 4 Hz, including the six rigid body modes and the first three dominant elastic modes of the CEM was achieved. Good agreement was demonstrated between experimental data and analytical predictions for the closed loop frequency response and random tests. Using the Modal Strain Energy (MSE) method, a passive damping treatment consisting of 60 viscoelastically damped struts was designed, fabricated and implemented on the CEM. Damping levels for the targeted modes were more than an order of magnitude larger than for the undamped structure. Using measured loss and stiffness data for the individual damped struts, analytical predictions of the damping levels were very close to the experimental values in the (1-10) Hz frequency range where the open loop model matched the experimental data. An integrated active/passive controller was successfully implemented on the CEM and was evaluated against an active-only controller. A two-fold increase in the effective control bandwidth and further reductions of 30 percent to 50 percent in the LOS RMS outputs were achieved compared to an active-only controller. Superior performance was also obtained compared to a High-Authority/Low-Authority (HAC/LAC) controller.

Voth, Christopher T.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Long-period classical Cepheids - Theory versus observation

New full amplitude models of classical Cepheids having periods longer than 13 days have been calculated, allowing the complete systematics of the observed light and velocity curves of classical Cepheids to be discussed in detail. Assuming that a normal evolutionary mass-luminosity relation is obeyed, the models reproduce such empirical phenomena as the full Hertzsprung progression of light and velocity curves and the gradual shift in phase of the Hertzsprung bump, together with the persistence in phase of the postmaximum shoulder on the light curve. Also reproduced are the retardation of maximum expansion velocity after maximum light, the correlation of light and velocity amplitudes, and the period-amplitude scatter diagram for both the light and the velocity amplitude. The average period predicted for a Cepheid light curve type is noted to be about 40 percent longer than that actually observed.

Carson, T. R.↗
DOE OSTI2024

New Muon Campus Simulations for the Muon $g\textrm{-}2$ Experiment at Fermilab

The Muon $g\textrm{-}2$ Experiment (E989) at Fermilab conducted high-precision measurements of the muon anomalous magnetic moment $a_{\mu}$ using a storage ring from 2018 to 2023, achieving a remarkable precision of $200\:\mathrm{ppb}$ over Runs 1-3, with analyses for Runs 4-6 ongoing. A comprehensive understanding of the storage ring's beam dynamics and its accurate simulations are crucial for achieving the experiment's ambitious goals. One of the requirements for this effort is a very detailed knowledge of the phase space distribution of the beam. To address this requirement, we performed high-statistics simulations of the Muon $g\textrm{-}2$ Target Station (AP0) and the Muon Campus beamlines: M2 and M3, followed by the Delivery Ring, and then M4 and M5. The resulting muon distribution at the end of the M5 beamline from our previous $3\times10^{12}$ protons-on-target (PoT) simulation serves as an essential input for the storage ring simulations. In 2024, to facilitate the analyses of Runs 4-6, we have updated our Muon Campus models and re-optimised certain parameters to reflect the operational currents and wire chamber measurements of the beam. For these optimisations, we employed the heterogeneous island method, implemented in our evolutionary optimisation tool, glyfada. This key update addresses the need to use the best possible beam for the storage ring simulations and thus supports the experiment's overall precision. The Muon $g\textrm{-}2$ Experiment at Fermilab has successfully achieved its $70\:\mathrm{ppb}$ systematic uncertainty goal and collected 21 times more data than its predecessor at BNL. The updated and improved Muon Campus models and simulations not only facilitate the experiment's efforts to potentially resolve the current tension between experimental measurements and theoretical predictions of $a_{\mu}$, but also provide a basis for future simulations for the Mu2e Experiment (E-973), which utilises shared Muon Campus beamlines.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Impact of Back-Sputtered Carbon on the Accelerator Grid Wear Rates of the NEXT and NSTAR Ion Thrusters

A study was conducted to quantify the impact of back-sputtered carbon on the downstream accelerator grid erosion rates of the NEXT (NASA's Evolutionary Xenon Thruster) Long Duration Test (LDT1). A similar analysis that was conducted for the NSTAR (NASA's Solar Electric Propulsion Technology Applications Readiness Program) Life Demonstration Test (LDT2) was used as a foundation for the analysis developed herein. A new carbon surface coverage model was developed that accounted for multiple carbon adlayers before complete surface coverage is achieved. The resulting model requires knowledge of more model inputs, so they were conservatively estimated using the results of past thin film sputtering studies and particle reflection predictions. In addition, accelerator current densities across the grid were rigorously determined using an ion optics code to determine accelerator current distributions and an algorithm to determine beam current densities along a grid using downstream measurements. The improved analysis was applied to the NSTAR test results for evaluation. The improved analysis demonstrated that the impact of back-sputtered carbon on pit and groove wear rate for the NSTAR LDT2 was negligible throughout most of eroded grid radius. The improved analysis also predicted the accelerator current density for transition from net erosion to net deposition considerably more accurately than the original analysis. The improved analysis was used to estimate the impact of back-sputtered carbon on the accelerator grid pit and groove wear rate of the NEXT Long Duration Test (LDT1). Unlike the NSTAR analysis, the NEXT analysis was more challenging because the thruster was operated for extended durations at various operating conditions and was unavailable for measurements because the test is ongoing. As a result, the NEXT LDT1 estimates presented herein are considered preliminary until the results of future posttest analyses are incorporated. The worst-case impact of carbon back-sputtering was determined to be the full power operating condition, but the maximum impact of back-sputtered carbon was only a four percent reduction in wear rate. As a result, back-sputtered carbon is estimated to have an insignificant impact on the first failure mode of the NEXT LDT at all operating conditions.

Soulas, George C.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Integrating Intermediate Traits in Phylogenetic Genotype-to-Phenotype Studies

A major goal of research in evolution and genetics is linking genotype to phenotype. This work could be direct, such as determining the genetic basis of a phenotype by leveraging genetic variation or divergence in a developmental, physiological, or behavioral trait. The work could also involve studying the evolutionary phenomena (e.g., reproductive isolation, adaptation, sexual dimorphism, behavior) that reveal an indirect link between genotype and a trait of interest. When the phenotype diverges across evolutionarily distinct lineages, this genotype-to-phenotype problem can be addressed using phylogenetic genotype-to-phenotype (PhyloG2P) mapping, which uses genetic signatures and convergent phenotypes on a phylogeny to infer the genetic bases of traits. The PhyloG2P approach has proven powerful in revealing key genetic changes associated with diverse traits, including the mammalian transition to marine environments and transitions between major mechanisms of photosynthesis. However, there are several intermediate traits layered in between genotype and the phenotype of interest, including but not limited to transcriptional profiles, chromatin states, protein abundances, structures, modifications, metabolites, and physiological parameters. Each intermediate trait is interesting and informative in its own right, but synthesis across data types has great promise for providing a deep, integrated, and predictive understanding of how genotypes drive phenotypic differences and convergence. We argue that an expanded PhyloG2P framework (the PhyloG2P matrix) that explicitly considers intermediate traits, and imputes those that are prohibitive to obtain, will allow a better mechanistic understanding of any trait of interest. Furthermore, this approach provides a proxy for functional validation and mechanistic understanding in organisms where laboratory manipulation is impractical.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Impact of Back-Sputtered Carbon on the Accelerator Grid Wear Rates of the NEXT and NSTAR Ion Thrusters

A study was conducted to quantify the impact of back-sputtered carbon on the downstream accelerator grid erosion rates of the NASA's Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) Long Duration Test (LDT1). A similar analysis that was conducted for the NASA's Solar Electric Propulsion Technology Applications Readiness Program (NSTAR) Life Demonstration Test (LDT2) was used as a foundation for the analysis developed herein. A new carbon surface coverage model was developed that accounted for multiple carbon adlayers before complete surface coverage is achieved. The resulting model requires knowledge of more model inputs, so they were conservatively estimated using the results of past thin film sputtering studies and particle reflection predictions. In addition, accelerator current densities across the grid were rigorously determined using an ion optics code to determine accelerator current distributions and an algorithm to determine beam current densities along a grid using downstream measurements. The improved analysis was applied to the NSTAR test results for evaluation. The improved analysis demonstrated that the impact of back-sputtered carbon on pit and groove wear rate for the NSTAR LDT2 was negligible throughout most of eroded grid radius. The improved analysis also predicted the accelerator current density for transition from net erosion to net deposition considerably more accurately than the original analysis. The improved analysis was used to estimate the impact of back-sputtered carbon on the accelerator grid pit and groove wear rate of the NEXT Long Duration Test (LDT1). Unlike the NSTAR analysis, the NEXT analysis was more challenging because the thruster was operated for extended durations at various operating conditions and was unavailable for measurements because the test is ongoing. As a result, the NEXT LDT1 estimates presented herein are considered preliminary until the results of future post-test analyses are incorporated. The worst-case impact of carbon back-sputtering was determined to be the full power operating condition, but the maximum impact of back-sputtered carbon was only a 4 percent reduction in wear rate. As a result, back-sputtered carbon is estimated to have an insignificant impact on the first failure mode of the NEXT LDT1 at all operating conditions.

Soulas, George C.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Calculation of skin-friction coefficients for low Reynolds number turbulent boundary layer flows

An analysis is presented of the reliability of various generally accepted empirical expressions for the prediction of the skin-friction coefficient C/sub f/ of turbulent boundary layers at low Reynolds numbers in zero-pressure-gradient flows on a smooth flat plate. The skin-friction coefficients predicted from these expressions were compared to the skin-friction coefficients of experimental profiles that were determined from a graphical method formulated from the law of the wall. These expressions are found to predict values that are consistently different than those obtained from the graphical method over the range 600 Re/sub theta 2000. A curve-fitted empirical relationship was developed from the present data and yields a better estimated value of C/sub f/ in this range. The data, covering the range 200 Re/sub theta 7000, provide insight into the nature of transitional flows. They show that fully developed turbulent boundary layers occur at Reynolds numbers Re/sub theta/ down to 425. Below this level there appears to be a well-ordered evolutionary process from the laminar to the turbulent profiles. These profiles clearly display the development of the turbulent core region and the shrinking of the laminar sublayer with increasing values of Re/sub theta/.

Barr, P. K.↗
NASA NTRS1993

The detectability of brown dwarfs - Predictions and uncertainties

In order to determine the likelihood for the detection of isolated brown dwarfs in ground-based observations as well as in future spaced-based astronomy missions, and in order to evaluate the significance of any detections that might be made, we must first know the expected surface density of brown dwarfs on the celestial sphere as a function of limiting magnitude, wavelength band, and Galactic latitude. It is the purpose of this paper to provide theoretical estimates of this surface density, as well as the range of uncertainty in these estimates resulting from various theoretical uncertainties. We first present theoretical cooling curves for low-mass stars that we have computed with the latest version of our stellar evolution code. We use our evolutionary results to compute theoretical brown-dwarf luminosity functions for a wide range of assumed initial mass functions and stellar birth rate functions. The luminosity functions, in turn, are utilized to compute theoretical surface density functions for brown dwarfs on the celestial sphere. We find, in particular, that for reasonable theoretical assumptions, the currently available upper bounds on the brown-dwarf surface density are consistent with the possibility that brown dwarfs contribute a substantial fraction of the mass of the Galactic disk.

Nelson, L. A.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Common 5S rRNA variants are likely to be accepted in many sequence contexts

Over evolutionary time RNA sequences which are successfully fixed in a population are selected from among those that satisfy the structural and chemical requirements imposed by the function of the RNA. These sequences together comprise the structure space of the RNA. In principle, a comprehensive understanding of RNA structure and function would make it possible to enumerate which specific RNA sequences belong to a particular structure space and which do not. We are using bacterial 5S rRNA as a model system to attempt to identify principles that can be used to predict which sequences do or do not belong to the 5S rRNA structure space. One promising idea is the very intuitive notion that frequently seen sequence changes in an aligned data set of naturally occurring 5S rRNAs would be widely accepted in many other 5S rRNA sequence contexts. To test this hypothesis, we first developed well-defined operational definitions for a Vibrio region of the 5S rRNA structure space and what is meant by a highly variable position. Fourteen sequence variants (10 point changes and 4 base-pair changes) were identified in this way, which, by the hypothesis, would be expected to incorporate successfully in any of the known sequences in the Vibrio region. All 14 of these changes were constructed and separately introduced into the Vibrio proteolyticus 5S rRNA sequence where they are not normally found. Each variant was evaluated for its ability to function as a valid 5S rRNA in an E. coli cellular context. It was found that 93% (13/14) of the variants tested are likely valid 5S rRNAs in this context. In addition, seven variants were constructed that, although present in the Vibrio region, did not meet the stringent criteria for a highly variable position. In this case, 86% (6/7) are likely valid. As a control we also examined seven variants that are seldom or never seen in the Vibrio region of 5S rRNA sequence space. In this case only two of seven were found to be potentially valid. The results demonstrate that changes that occur multiple times in a local region of RNA sequence space in fact usually will be accepted in any sequence context in that same local region.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗
NASA NTRS2007

Fragmentation hierarchy of bright sungrazing comets and the birth and orbital evolution of the Kreutz System. II. the case for cascading fragmentation

We examine the process of cascading fragmentation for the Kreutz sungrazer system to continue our exploration of its birth, orbital evolution, and temporal clumping. We modify and broaden the two-superfragment model from Paper I to include clusters of ~30 bright comets spanning four centuries and 1000 SOHO sungrazers from 1996 to 2006. The spectacular parent sungrazer X/1106 C1 is assumed to have tidally split shortly after perihelion into a train of major protofragments immersed in a cloud of particulate debris, which at larger heliocentric distances were breaking up nontidally over and over again. We describe potential evolutionary paths for the Kreutz system by linking X/1106 C1 in subgroup I-type orbit with the comet of February 423 in one scenario or with the comet of February 467 in another. The latter scenario accounts for sungrazer clusters in as early as the 16th century, suggests that the progenitor object may have been observed as the comet of 214 BCE, is quite consistent with the orbital distribution of the SOHO sungrazers that sample the central filament of the Kreutz system between the clusters of major sungrazers, and predicts future clusters until ~2120. Comet X/1106 C1 and the common parent of C/1882 R1 and C/1965 S1 were two first-generation fragments of the progenitor that split nontidally on the way to its 5th century perihelion, reminiscent of the superfragments in Paper I. We provide computational tools needed for solving the problem of the Kreutz system’s orbital evolution, but no unique scenarios are presented for the individual comets. Another cluster of bright sungrazers is expected to arrive in the coming decades, its earliest member possibly just several years from now.

Chodas, Paul W.↗
NASA NTRS1991

ECLSS predictive monitoring

On Space Station Freedom (SSF), design iterations have made clear the need to keep the sensor complement small. Along with the unprecendented duration of the mission, it is imperative that decisions regarding placement of sensors be carefully examined and justified during the design phase. In the ECLSS Predictive Monitoring task, we are developing AI-based software to enable design engineers to evaluate alternate sensor configurations. Based on techniques from model-based reasoning and information theory, the software tool makes explicit the quantitative tradeoffs among competing sensor placements, and helps designers explore and justify placement decisions. This work is being applied to the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) testbed at MSFC to assist design personnel in placing sensors for test purposes to evaluate baseline configurations and ultimately to select advanced life support system technologies for evolutionary SSF.

Doyle, Richard J.↗
DOE OSTI2025

A non-canonical fungal peroxisome PTS-1 signal, SYM, and its evolutionary aspects

Abstract Proteins localized to peroxisomes, particularly those expressed under specific conditions or in low abundance, are often undetected by routine proteomics methods due to detection sensitivity limits. In silico identification and experimental validation of peroxisomal targeting signals (PTSs) offer a reliable alternative. We demonstrate that SYM, a non-canonical plant PTS-1 signal, functions similarly inAspergillus nidulans, as GFP tagged with a SYM C-terminal tripeptide localizes to peroxisomes. One of two nativeA. nidulansproteins with C-terminal SYM tripeptide shows weak peroxisomal localization alongside cytoplasmic presence, indicating that only a subset of proteins with non-canonical signals access peroxisomes.In silicoanalysis of 1,010 fungal genomes identified diverse SYM-proteins with variable functions, suggesting that non-canonical PTS-1 signals may evolve spontaneously. Two-thirds of SYM-proteins are predicted to localize to specific intracellular compartments other than the peroxisome. We propose that despite their predicted localization, these proteins possessing SYM as a non-canonical peroxisomal signal might also have peroxisomal presence. Among SYM-proteins, pectinesterases, known plant pathogen virulence factors, were frequent. Notably, 25% of fungal pectinesterases harbor non-canonical PTS-1 signals, suggesting that partial peroxisomal localization of pectinesterases has evolved convergently. This suggests that partial peroxisomal localization may enhance protein functional flexibility, contributing to the organism’s adaptability.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
NASA NTRS1995

The luminosity function of quasars

We propose a new evolutionary model for the optical luminosity function of quasars. Our analytical model is derived from fits to the empirical luminosity function estimated by Hartwick and Schade and Warren, Hewett, and Osmer on the basis of more than 1200 quasars over the range of redshifts 0 approximately less than z approximately less than 4.5. We find that the evolution of quasars over this entire redshift range can be well fitted by a Gaussian distribution, while the shape of the luminosity function can be well fitted by either a double power law or an exponential L(exp 1/4) law. The predicted number counts of quasars, as a function of either apparent magnitude or redshift, are fully consistent with the observed ones. Our model indicates that the evolution of quasars reaches its maximum at z approximately = 2.8 and declines at higher redshifts. An extrapolation of the evolution to z approximately greater than 4.5 implies that quasars may have started their cosmic fireworks at z(sub f) approximately = 5.2-5.5. Forthcoming surveys of quasars at these redshifts will be critical to constrain the epoch of quasar formation. All the results we derived are based on observed quasars and are therefore subject to the bias of obscuration by dust in damped Ly alpha systems. Future surveys of these absorption systems at z approximately greater than 3 will also be important if the formation epoch of quasars is to be known unambiguously.

Pei, Yichuan C.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Viral niche-partitioning: comparative genomics of giant viruses across environmental gradients in a high Arctic freshwater-saltwater lake

Giant viruses (GVs; Nucleocytoviricota) impact the biology and ecology of a wide range of eukaryotic hosts, with implications for global biogeochemical cycles. Here, we investigated GV niche separation in highly stratified Lake A at the northern coast of Ellesmere Island, Nunavut, Canada. This lake is composed of a layer of ice-covered freshwater that overlies saltwater derived from the ancient Arctic Ocean, and it therefore provides a broad gradient of environmental conditions and ecological habitats, each with a distinct protist community and rich assemblages of associated GVs. The upper layer (mixolimnion) had measurable light and oxygen, and contained diverse GVs linked to photosynthetic protists, indicating adaptation to surface biotic and abiotic conditions. In contrast, the saline lower layer (monimolimnion), lacking oxygen and light, hosted GVs associated with predicted heterotrophic protists, some of which are known for a predatory lifestyle, and with several viral genes suggesting adaptation to deep-water anaerobic conditions. Our observations underscore the coupling between physical and chemical gradients, microeukaryotes and their associated GVs in Lake A, and provide insight into the potential for GVs to directly and indirectly impact host metabolism. There were similarities between the genetic composition of GVs and the metabolic processes of their potential hosts, implying co-evolution and niche-adaptation within the lake habitats. Notably, we found a greater presence of viral rhodopsins in deeper water layers, suggesting an evolutionary relationship with potential hosts capable of supplementing their energetic needs to thrive in low energy, anoxic conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1981

Photochemistry in planetary atmospheres

Widely varying paths of evolutionary history, atmospheric processes, solar fluxes, and temperatures have produced vastly different planetary atmospheres. The similarities and differences between the earth atmosphere and those of the terrestrial planets (Venus and Mars) and of the Jovian planets are discussed in detail; consideration is also given to the photochemistry of Saturn, Uranus, Pluto, Neptune, Titan, and Triton. Changes in the earth's ancient atmosphere are described, and problems of interest in the earth's present troposphere are discussed, including the down wind effect, plume interactions, aerosol nucleation and growth, acid rain, and the fate of terpenes. Temperature fluctuations in the four principal layers of the earth's atmosphere, predicted decreases in the ozone concentration as a function of time, and spectra of particles in the earth's upper atmosphere are also presented. Finally, the vertical structure of the Venus cloud system and the thermal structure of the Jovian planets are shown graphically.

Levine, J. S.↗
NASA NTRS1978

An orbital service module systems concept

An Orbital Service Module (OSM) system represents a concept for an evolutionary program that will provide utilities services such as electrical power, heat rejection, attitude control, and communications to support payload operations in both Shuttle-tended and untended (free-flyer) modes. The initial program step is a Space Transportation System (STS) power extension package (a solar array system carried by the Orbiter and deployed by the remote manipulator system). The power extension package (PEP) develops the major components of the more sophisticated OSM vehicles. Major objectives of such an approach are (1) the continuous matching of a capability to meet real needs while avoiding the pitfalls usually associated with the uncertainties inherent in long-range prediction of future requirements, and (2) the economies attendant with program continuity and hardware commonality. The initial Orbiter-carried PEP and several later OSM system growth options are discussed.

Craig, J. W.↗
NASA NTRS1992

A differential CDM model for fatigue of unidirectional metal matrix composites

A multiaxial, isothermal, continuum damage mechanics (CDM) model for fatigue of a unidirectional metal matrix composite volume element is presented. The model is phenomenological, stress based, and assumes a single scalar internal damage variable, the evolution of which is anisotropic. The development of the fatigue damage model, (i.e., evolutionary law) is based on the definition of an initially transversely isotropic fatigue limit surface, a static fracture surface, and a normalized stress amplitude function. The anisotropy of these surfaces and function, and therefore the model, is defined through physically meaningful invariants reflecting the local stress and material orientation. This transversely isotropic model is shown, when taken to it's isotropic limit, to directly simplify to a previously developed and validated isotropic fatigue continuum damage model. Results of a nondimensional parametric study illustrate (1) the flexibility of the present formulation in attempting to characterize a class of composite materials, and (2) the capability of the formulation in predicting anticipated qualitative trends in the fatigue behavior of unidirectional metal matrix composites. Also, specific material parameters representing an initial characterization of the composite system SiC/Ti 15-3 and the matrix material (Ti 15-3) are reported.

Arnold, S. M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

A model for the evolution of CO2 on Mars

We have constructed a model that predicts the evolution of CO2 on Mars from the end of the heavy bombardment period to the present. The model draws on published estimates of the main processes believed to affect the fate of CO2 during this period: chemical weathering, regolith uptake, polar cap formation, and atmospheric escape. Except for escape, the rate at which these processes act is controlled by surface temperatures which we calculate using a modified version of the Gierasch and Toon energy balance model. The modifications account for the change in solar luminosity with time, the greenhouse effect, and a polar and equatorial energy budget. Using published estimates for the main parameters, we find no evolutionary scenario in which CO2 is capable of producing a warm (global mean temperatures greater than 250 K) and wet (surface pressures greater than 30 mbar) early climate, and then evolves to present conditions with approximately 7 mbar in the atmosphere, less than 300 mbar in the regolith, and less than 5 mbar in the caps. Such scenarios would only exist if the early sun were brighter than standard solar models suggest, if greenhouse gases other than CO2 were present in the early atmosphere, or if the polar albedo were significantly lower than 0.75. However, these scenarios generally require the storage of large amounts of CO2 (greater than 1 bar) in the carbonate reservoir. If the warm and wet early Mars constraint is relaxed, then we find best overall agreement with present day reservoirs for initial CO2 inventories of 0.5-1.0 bar. We also find that the polar caps can have a profound effect on how the system evolves. If the initial amount of CO2 is less than some critical value, then there is not enough heating of the poles to prevent permanent caps from forming. Once formed, these caps control how the system evolves, because they set the surface pressure and, hence, the thermal environment. If the initial amount of CO2 is greater than this critical value, then caps do not form initially, but can form later on, when weathering and escape lower the surface pressure to a point at which polar heating is no longer sufficient to prevent cap formation and the collapse of the climate system. Our modeling suggests this critical initial amount of CO2 is between 1 and 2 bar, but its true value will depend on all factors affecting the polar heat budget.

Haberle, Robert M.↗