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At least 217 records · Page 12

Field-scale dynamics of planting dates in the US Corn Belt from 2000 to 2020

Crop planting dates are a dynamic feature of agricultural systems that respond to short- and long-term climate signals, crop and cultivar selection, and technology changes. Planting date records are essential for yield gap analyses, accurate crop modeling, and tracking farmer adaptations to weather and climate change. Although planting dates have high variation at local scales due to heterogeneity in farm resources and decision-making, available long-term data on planting dates is largely restricted to aggregated regional statistics or, at best, satellite-derived datasets with limited spatiotemporal extent and at resolutions unable to distinguish individual fields (> 250 m). Here, we generated retrospective annual field-scale (30 m) planting date maps for both maize and soybeans spanning 2000-2020 across a 12 state region in the United States Corn Belt based on Landsat satellite data and a large ground sample of over 28,000 maize and soybean fields. Using training data from 2015-2020 for model selection, we found that planting date predictions improved with harmonic regression of Landsat data and additional annual weather covariates. The preferred random forests model approximately doubled performance compared to a null model based on state median planting dates, capturing 47% of field-level variation for maize (mean absolute error, MAE = 7.4 days) and 44% for soybeans (MAE = 7.5 days) against held-out ground truth test data for 2008-2014. We also evaluated the full 2000-2020 dataset with state agricultural statistics, finding strong agreement with median planting dates for maize (R 2 = 0.76, MAE = 4.4 days) and slightly lower agreement for soybeans (R 2 = 0.65, MAE = 5.4 days) when aggregated to the state level. We then used this new dataset to analyze environmental determinants of planting dates at a finer-scale than previously possible, controlling for unobserved variation at the sub-state district level. We found that during 2000-2020, each standard deviation increase in rainfall delayed planting by ~ 2.5 days, and fields with higher soil productivity ratings tended to be planted earlier. We did not find meaningful trends over the last two decades in planting dates for maize or soybeans, in contrast to trends towards earlier planting dates late last century and predicted for this period in climate adaptation studies. We hypothesize increases in early season rainfall may have inhibited these shifts towards earlier planting. Remotely sensed planting dates will be a useful tool for yield gap analyses, crop simulation modeling, and ongoing assessment of climate adaptation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spectral estimates of intercepted solar radiation by corn and soybean canopies

Attention is given to the development of methods for combining spectral and meteorological data in crop yield models which are capable of providing accurate estimates of crop condition and yields throughout the growing season. The present investigation is concerned with initial tests of these concepts using spectral and agronomic data acquired in controlled experiments. The data were acquired at the Purdue University Agronomy Farm, 10 km northwest of West Lafayette, Indiana. Data were obtained throughout several growing seasons for corn and soybeans. Five methods or models for predicting yields were examined. On the basis of the obtained results, it is concluded that estimating intercepted solar radiation using spectral data is a viable approach for merging spectral and meteorological data in crop yield models.

Gallo, K. P.↗

Opportunities for bioenergy crops to support transitions from irrigated agriculture and conserve the U.S. High Plains Aquifer

This study investigates potential economic and groundwater driven transitions from irrigated maize production—the dominant irrigated cropping system in the High Plains Aquifer (HPA) region—to alternative crops such as sorghum and switchgrass, two common bioenergy feedstocks. Unsustainable groundwater extraction in the U.S. High Plains presents critical challenges including reduced irrigation capacities, diminished crop yields, lower land values, and escalating energy costs. Using a spatially explicit optimization framework combined with comprehensive economic and hydrogeological data, we evaluate optimal land-use strategies and irrigation system investments over a 30-year planning period. Results indicate significant regional variability in the future economic viability of irrigated agriculture, driven by differences in aquifer recharge rates, groundwater availability, and market conditions. Nebraska and parts of northern Texas can sustain irrigated maize profitability due to relatively favorable groundwater conditions and lower land rents, respectively. In contrast, many portions of Kansas and southern Texas are more likely to transition to dryland agriculture within two decades. Colorado and New Mexico show potential for significant adoption of switchgrass production as an alternative biomass-based energy crop. Overall, over the 30-year horizon, our model implies that approximately 23% of currently irrigated maize area across the HPA region may transition to dryland farming under business-as-usual conditions. This transition is complemented by a threefold increase in non-irrigated sorghum production, from 0.20 to 0.77 Mt yr−1, indicating that groundwater-driven shifts in agricultural production may support a larger regional base for bioenergy feedstocks. The study also reveals opportunities for producers to optimize economic returns and biomass production potential.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Fine resolution remote sensing spectra improves estimates of gross primary production of croplands

Gross primary production (GPP) is a fundamental measure of the terrestrial carbon cycle critical to our understanding of ecosystem function under the changing climate and land use. Remote sensing enables access to continuous spatial coverage, but remains challenged in heterogeneous croplands. Coarse resolution products, like MOD17A (500 m), may aggregate fragmented land cover types commonly found in heavily managed landscapes and misrepresent their respective contribution to carbon production. Consequently, this study demonstrates the capability of fine-resolution imagery (20-30 m) and available red-edge vegetation indices to characterize GPP across seven Midwest cropping systems. Four sites were established on a 22-year-old USDA Conservation Reserve Program (CRP); and the other three on land conventionally farmed with corn-soybean-wheat rotation (AGR). We compare in situ GPP estimates from eddy-covariance towers with ten satellite models: eight variants of the vegetation photosynthesis models (VPM), of which five include a red-edge vegetation index, as well as conventional products Landsat CONUS GPP (30 m) and MOD17A2H V6 (500 m). Daily and cumulative fine-resolution imagery integrated within VPM generally agreed with tower-based GPP in heterogeneous landscapes more than those from MODIS 500 m VPM or conventional GPP products from MOD17AH V6 or Landsat 8 CONUS. Here, replacing EVI2 with red-edge indices NDRE2, NDRE1, and MTCI in Sentinel 2 VPMs notably improved explanation of variance and estimation of cumulative GPP. While existing methods using MODIS- and Landsat-derived GPP are important baselines for regional and global studies, future research may benefit from the higher spatial, temporal, and radiometric resolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Future Farming: National Predictive Modeling Tool Initiative (NPMTI) [Slides]

The National Predictive Modeling Tool Initiative (NPMTI) is a multi-year program to develop research-based “tools” to forecast incidences of diseases and mycotoxins affecting U.S. crops. The overall goals of NPMTI are to: (1) ensure crop sustainability and crop quality; (2) provide climate change resilience; (3) improve soil health; (4) monitor pathogens and microbial diversity in the environment, but not limited to crop residues, soils, and air; (5) improve disease management thereby reducing yield losses; (6) increase precision of in-season disease management tactics; and (7) increase precision of pesticide use.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The role of social support on midwestern farmers’ willingness to grow perennial bioenergy crops

The lack of farmers' willingness to grow perennial bioenergy crops (PBCs) presents a critical barrier to the emergence of cellulosic biofuel production. The willingness relies on a complex network of economic, environmental, and social drivers, among which the influence of social factors (e.g., the influence of neighborhood, community, and communication) is less understood. This study addresses this knowledge gap via a survey analysis of midwestern farmers. The survey data are analyzed through ordinary least square regression and structural equation model, which together investigate the individual and interactive impacts of multiple factors on farmers' decisions to adopt PBCs. Based on a farm-scale analysis, six statistically significant predictors of farmer willingness to grow PBCs are identified: perception of PBCs' environment benefits, education level, willingness to take risks, familiarity with PBCs, portion of peers already growing PBCs, and support of biorefineries locating in the local community. Among these, the latter three predictors are social support variables. It is found that familiarity with the crops is the most significant predictor of willingness; familiarity is also an important intermediate variable that mediates the influence of many other predictors. In addition, peer adoption can both directly and indirectly affect willingness via its influence on familiarity. Furthermore, these findings suggest that it is a pressing need to improve farmers’ knowledge of PBCs to promote the adoption of such crops.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Monitoring the vernal advancement and retrogradation (green wave effect) of natural vegetation

The author has identified the following significant results. The asserted homogeneity of the Great Plains Corridor was established, as evidenced from test site characteristic determinations. First-look visual analysis of ERTS-1 black and white images reveals the ability to locate network test sites. Geological formations associated with major vegetation types are readily apparent on the imagery. Grasslands are readily distinguishable from forested and cropped areas. Under magnification, pastures as small as five to ten acres can be recognized in areas of contrasting vegetation. Bodies of water (rivers, lakes, and large farm ponds) are easily located on bands 6 and 7. Urban areas and major highways are also easily observed and useful as landmarks.

Rouse, J. W., Jr.↗

GPM, TRMM, and Other Global Precipitation Products and Services at NASA GES DISC

Precipitation is a key environmental variable. For example, in agriculture, precipitation, temperature, water (soil moisture), solar radiation, NDVI, etc., are key variables.Rainfed agriculture – major farming practices that rely on rainfall for water.Rainfed agriculture: >95% of farmed land (sub-Saharan Africa); 90% (Latin America); 75% (Near East and North Africa); 65% (East Asia); 60% (South Asia).Droughts and floods can cause severe crop loss. The Goddard Earth Sciences (GES) Data and Information Services Center (DISC), one of 12 NASA data centers, is located in Greenbelt, Maryland, USA. The NASA GES DISC is a major data archive center for global precipitation, water & energy cycles, atmospheric composition, and climate variability.

Liu, Z.↗

Farmers’ Perceptions of Marginal Land for Biofuel Crops

The dataset includes the survey results about farmers’ perceptions of marginal land availability and the likelihood of a land pixel being marginal based on a machine learning model trained from the survey. Two spreadsheet files are the farmer and farm characteristics (marginal_land_survey_data_shared.xlsx), and the existing land use of marginal lands (land_use_info_sharing.xlsx). Note: the blank cells in these two spreadsheets mean missing values in the survey response. The GeoTiff file includes two bands, one the marginal land likelihood in the Midwestern states (0-1), the other the dominant reason of land marginality (0-5; 0 for farm size, 1 for growing season precipitation, 2 for root zone soil water capacity, 3 for average slope, 4 for growing season mean temperature, and 5 for growing season diurnal range of temperature). To read the data, please use a GIS software such as ArcGIS or QGIS.

marginal land↗

Land management effects on wet aggregate stability and carbon content

Land management affects soil structure and many other soil properties and processes. Our objectives were to evaluate soil organic C (SOC), aggregate size distribution, aggregate-associated C, and soil structure as affected by long-term land management and slope. A chronosequence of 38 on-farm sites with low to high (5–18%) slopes was selected to evaluate 5–40 yr of management. The sites were classified as business as usual (BAU) cropland (BAU-Crop), BAU pasture (BAU-Past), newly established conservation reserve program (CRP) areas (CRP-New), and established CRP (CRP-Old). Soil samples were collected from the 0-to-5- and 5-to-15-cm depth increments and processed for soil property measurements including fractionation by wet sieving into five aggregate size classes (>2,000, 1,000–2,000, 500–1,000, 250–500, and 53–250 μm). Within the surface 5 cm, mean weight diameter (MWD) and geometric mean diameter (GMD) were used to characterize soil structural stability. The BAU-Past and CRP-Old sites had 79% more macroaggregates (>2,000, 1,000–2,000, and 500–1,000 μm), 123% higher MWD, 38% higher GMD, and 47% higher SOC than BAU-Crop or CRP-New sites. The 5-to-15-cm depth increment showed a similar but lower magnitude response. Aggregate-associated C was quantified using a constant soil mass that reflected aggregate size distribution to prevent overestimating C content. Lower-slope locations had more SOC, more macroaggregates, more C associated with macroaggregates, and higher GMD and MWD compared with high-slope locations across all management classifications and soil depths. The results support our hypothesis that the high-slop soils may benefits from specific management decisions than the lower-sloping soils as a function of landscape property. We recommend reestablishing grassland on sloping land that is susceptible to excessive soil erosion, although those practices will likely take a long time to restore soil structural stability and SOC content to precultivation levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Scaling Spectroradiometric Monitoring to an Algal Factory Farm

This report briefly summarizes the spectroradiometric approach adapted and deployed as part of Task 4.2 within the BETO-funded D evelopment of I ntegrated S creening, C ultivar O ptimization, and V erification R esearch (DISCOVR) project, specifically task 4, “Increase crop protection and culture stability.” The goals of this subtask were to monitor ponds cultivating a variety of DISCOVR strains at the Arizona Center for Algae Technology and Innovation (AzCATI) with spectroradiometric technology to: • Predict biomass concentrations with high temporal frequency. • Optimize automated analysis methods that enabled feedback for pond automation strategies • Identify pond crash indicators from primary (pest/predator) and indirect (change in algal host) spectroscopic signals with potential for early treatment/intervention • Provide recommendations for technology deployment at scale. This report fulfills the deliverable requirement for the final bullet “provide recommendations for technology deployment at scale”.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Remote Sensing and Information Technology for Large Farms

A method of applying of remote sensing (RS) and information management technology to help large farms produce at maximum efficiency is undergoing development. The novelty of the method does not lie in the concept of "precision agriculture," which involves variation of seeding, of application of chemicals, and of irrigation according to the spatially and temporally local variations in the growth stages and health of crops and in the chemical and physical conditions of soils. The novelty also does not lie in the use of RS data registered with other data in a geographic information system (GIS) to guide the use of precise agricultural techniques. Instead, the novelty lies in a systematic approach to overcoming obstacles that, heretofore, have impeded the timely distribution of reliable, relevant, and sufficient GIS data to support day-to-day, acre-to-acre decisions concerning the application of precise agricultural techniques to increase production and decrease cost. The development and promotion of the method are inspired in part by a vision of equipping farm machinery to accept GIS (including RS) data and using the data for automated or semiautomated implementation of precise agricultural techniques. Primary examples of relevant GIS data include information on plant stress, soil moisture, and effects of applied chemicals, all derived by automated computational analysis of measurements taken by one or more airborne spectroradiometers. Proper management and timeliness of the large amount of GIS information are of paramount concern in agriculture. Information on stresses and changes in crops is especially perishable and important to farmers. The need for timeliness and management of information is satisfied by use of computing hardware and software capable of (1) rapid georectification and other processing of RS data, (2) packaging the output data in the form of GIS plots, and (3) making the data available to farmers and other subscribers by Internet password access. It is a goal of this development program to make RS data available no later than the data after an aerial survey. In addition, data from prior surveys are kept in the data base. Farmers can, for example, use current and prior data to analyze changes.

Williams, John E.↗

Remote Sensing and Information Technology for Large Farms

A method of applying remote sensing (RS) and information-management technology to help large farms produce at maximum efficiency is undergoing development. The novelty of the method does not lie in the concept of precision agriculture, which involves variation of seeding, of application of chemicals, and of irrigation according to the spatially and temporally local variations in the growth stages and health of crops and in the chemical and physical conditions of soils. The novelty also does not lie in the use of RS data registered with other data in a geographic information system (GIS) to guide the use of precise agricultural techniques. Instead, the novelty lies in a systematic approach to overcoming obstacles that, heretofore, have impeded the timely distribution of reliable, relevant, and sufficient GIS data to support day-to-day, acre-to-acre decisions concerning the application of precise agricultural techniques to increase production and decrease cost. The development and promotion of the method are inspired in part by a vision of equipping farm machinery to accept GIS (including RS) data and using the data for automated or semi-automated implementation of precise agricultural techniques. Primary examples of relevant GIS data include information on plant stress, soil moisture, and effects of applied chemicals, all derived by automated computational analysis of measurements taken by one or more airborne spectroradiometers. Proper management and timeliness of the large amount of GIS information are of paramount concern in agriculture. Information on stresses and changes in crops is especially perishable and important to farmers. The need for timeliness and management of information is satisfied by use of computing hardware and software capable of (1) rapid geo-rectification and other processing of RS data, (2) packaging the output data in the form of GIS plots, and (3) making the data available to farmers and other subscribers by Internet password access. It is a goal of this development program to make RS data available no later than the data after an aerial survey. In addition, data from prior surveys are kept in the data base. Farmers can, for example, use current and prior data to analyze changes.

Williams, John E.↗

Separating Oil-Water Mixtures Using Bump Arrays

Particle separation is an important process step across many fields. One technique being applied for separating solids such as blood components or sand particles from carrier fluids is the use of arrays of aligned posts called deterministic lateral arrays to bump particles to one side in the flow stream to enhance separation. This technique may be useful for separation of deformable particles. The ability to efficiently separate two-phase industrial (oil/water) mixtures is key for future use of valuable resources. Over 1 trillion gallons of petroleum production water could be reclaimed annually for reuse in the drought-ridden western US states. The ability to reclaim this petroleum production water may be critical for the Central High Plains (Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and New Mexico). Trends in just the High Plains area already lost 20 to 25% of the irrigated farming area due to insufficient ground water storage to irrigate, and farmland losses are expected to grow to 40%. Proving this technology is key to reuse of petroleum production water for crop irrigation or to replace water from currently failing aquifers in rich agricultural lands of the Central High Plains. We conducted experiments applying mesofluidic separation for flowing two-phase (oil/water) mixtures. Experiments were conducted using oils of differing viscosities with water as the carrier fluid; separation was achieved over a range of oil-water concentrations. We describe the results of these experiments in this paper.

oil-water separation, micelle, droplet separation,↗

Frost Monitoring and Forecasting Using MODIS Land Surface Temperature Data and a Numerical Weather Prediction Model Forecasts for Eastern Africa

Frost is a major challenge across Eastern Africa, severely impacting agricultural farms. Frost damages have wide ranging economic implications on tea and coffee farms, which represent a major economic sector. Early monitoring and forecasting will enable farmers to take preventive actions to minimize the losses. Although clearly important, timely information on when to protect crops from freezing is relatively limited. MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) data, derived from NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites, and 72‐hr weather forecasts from the Kenya Meteorological Service's operational Weather Research Forecast model are enabling the Regional Center for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD) and the Tea Research Foundation of Kenya to provide timely information to farmers in the region. This presentation will highlight an ongoing collaboration among the Kenya Meteorological Service, RCMRD, and the Tea Research Foundation of Kenya to identify frost events and provide farmers with potential frost forecasts in Eastern Africa.

Kabuchanga, Eric↗

Plant productivity in controlled environments

To assess the cost and area/volume requirements of a farm in a space station or Lunar or Martian base, a few laboratories in the United States, the Soviet Union, France, and Japan are studying optimum controlled environments for the production of selected crops. Temperature, light, photoperiod, CO2, humidity, the root-zone environment, and cultivars are the primary factors being manipulated to increase yields and harvest index. Our best wheat yields on a time basis (24 g m-2 day-1 of edible biomass) are five times good field yields and twice the world record. Similar yields have been obtained in other laboratories with potatoes and lettuce; soybeans are also promising. These figures suggest that approximately 30 m2 under continuous production could support an astronaut with sufficient protein and about 2800 kcal day-1. Scientists under Iosif Gitelzon in Krasnoyarsk, Siberia, have lived in a closed system for up to 5 months, producing 80% of their own food. Thirty square meters for crops were allotted to each of the two men taking part in the experiment. A functional controlled-environment life-support system (CELSS) will require the refined application of several disciplines: controlled-environment agriculture, food preparation, waste disposal, and control-systems technology, to list only the broadest categories. It has seemed intuitively evident that ways could be found to prepare food, regenerate plant nutrients from wastes, and even control and integrate several subsystems of a CELSS. But could sufficient food be produced in the limited areas and with the limited energy that might be available? Clearly, detailed studies of food production were necessary.

NASA Discipline Life Support Systems↗

Perennializing marginal croplands: going back to the future to mitigate climate change with resilient biobased feedstocks

Managing annual row crops on marginally productive croplands can be environmentally unsustainable and result in variable economic returns. Incorporating perennial bioenergy feedstocks into marginally productive cropland can engender ecosystem services and enhance climate resiliency while also diversifying farm incomes. We use one of the oldest bioenergy-specific field experiments in North America to evaluate economically and environmentally sustainable management practices for growing perennial grasses on marginal cropland. This long-term field trial called 9804 was established in 1998 in eastern Nebraska and compared the productivity and sustainability of corn (Zea mays L.)—both corn grain and corn stover—and switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) bioenergy systems under different harvest strategies and nitrogen (N) fertilizer rates. This experiment demonstrated that switchgrass, compared to corn, is a reliable and sustainable bioenergy feedstock. This experiment has been a catalyst for other bioenergy projects which have also expanded our understanding of growing and managing bioenergy feedstocks on marginal cropland. We (1) synthesize research from this long-term experiment and (2) provide perspective concerning both the knowledge gained from this experiment and knowledge gaps and how to fill them as well as the role switchgrass will play in the future of bioenergy.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗