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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2008

A VARI-Based Relative Greenness from MODIS Data for Computing the Fire Potential Index

The Fire Potential Index (FPI) relies on relative greenness (RG) estimates from remote sensing data. The Normalized Difference Vegetation index (NDVI), derived from NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) imagery is currently used to calculate RG operationally. Here we evaluated an alternate measure of RG using the Visible Atmospheric Resistant Index (VARI) derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) data. VARI was chosen because it has previously been shown to have the strongest relationship with Live Fuel Moisture (LFM) out of a wide selection of MODIS-derived indices in southern California shrublands. To compare MODIS-based NDVI-FPI and VARI-FPI, RG was calculated from a 6-year time series of MODIS composites and validated against in-situ observations of LFM as a surrogate for vegetation greenness. RG from both indices was then compared in terms of its performance for computing the FPI using historical wildfire data. Computed RG values were regressed against ground-sampled LFM at 14 sites within Los Angeles County. The results indicate the VARI-based RG consistently shows a stronger relationship with observed LFM than NDVI-based RG. With an average R2 of 0.727 compared to a value of only 0.622 for NDVI-RG, VARI-RG showed stronger relationships at 13 out of 14 sites. Based on these results, daily FPI maps were computed for the years 2001 through 2005 using both NDVI-RG and VARI-RG. These were then validated against 12,490 fire detections from the MODIS active fire product using logistic regression. Deviance of the logistic regression model was 408.8 for NDVI-FPI and 176.2 for VARI-FPI. The c-index was found to be 0.69 and 0.78, respectively. The results show that VARI-FP outperforms NDVI-FPI in distinguishing between fire and no-fire events for historical wildfire data in southern California for the given time period.

Schneider, P.↗
NASA NTRS1974

The science of the Viking missions

The Viking missions involve the launching of two identical spacecraft in the summer of 1975. Each spacecraft consists of a Lander and an Orbiter combination. The initial deceleration of the Lander during its descent to the Martian surface will be caused by aerodynamic drag. At about 5 km above the surface, a parachute is deployed. At 2 km three retrorockets are fired. The investigations to be conducted are discussed, giving attention to studies of the Martian surface with the aid of TV cameras, water mapping with an IR spectrometer, a thermal mapping experiment, studies of the Martian atmosphere, investigations conducted with a surface sampler, the search for life, and studies of the Martian surface composition.

Soffen, G. A.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Restoring Historic Forest Disturbance Frequency Would Partially Mitigate Droughts in the Central Sierra Nevada Mountains

Forest thinning and prescribed fire are expected to improve the climate resilience and water security of forests in the western U.S., but few studies have directly modeled the hydrological effects of multi-decadal landscape-scale forest disturbance. By updating a distributed process-based hydrological model (DHSVM) with vegetation maps from a distributed forest ecosystem model (LANDIS-II), we simulate the water resource impacts of forest management scenarios targeting partial or full restoration of the pre-colonial disturbance return interval in the central Sierra Nevada mountains. In a fully restored disturbance regime that includes fire, thinning, and insect mortality, reservoir inflow increases by 4%–9% total and 8%–14% in dry years. At sub-watershed scales (10–100 km2), thinning dense forests can increase streamflow by >20% in dry years. In a thinner forest, increased understory transpiration compensates for decreased overstory transpiration. Consequentially, 73% of streamflow gains are attributable to decreased overstory rain and snow interception loss. Thinner forests can increase headwater peak flows, but reservoir-scale peak flows are almost exclusively influenced by climate. Uncertainty in future precipitation causes high uncertainty in future water yield, but the additional water yield attributable to forest disturbance is about five times less sensitive to annual precipitation uncertainty. This partial decoupling of the streamflow disturbance response from annual precipitation makes disturbance especially valuable for water supply during dry years. Our study can increase confidence in the water resource benefits of restoring historic forest disturbance frequencies in the central Sierra Nevada mountains, and our modeling framework is widely applicable to other forested mountain landscapes.

Boardman, Eli N. [University of Nevada, Reno, NV (↗
NASA NTRS1997

Soot Volume Fraction Maps for Normal and Reduced Gravity Laminar Acetylene Jet Diffusion Flames

The study of soot particulate distribution inside gas jet diffusion flames is important to the understanding of fundamental soot particle and thermal radiative transport processes, as well as providing findings relevant to spacecraft fire safety, soot emissions, and radiant heat loads for combustors used in air-breathing propulsion systems. Compared to those under normal gravity (1-g) conditions, the elimination of buoyancy-induced flows is expected to significantly change the flow field in microgravity (O g) flames, resulting in taller and wider flames with longer particle residence times. Work by Bahadori and Edelman demonstrate many previously unreported qualitative and semi-quantitative results, including flame shape and radiation, for sooting laminar zas jet diffusion flames. Work by Ku et al. report soot aggregate size and morphology analyses and data and model predictions of soot volume fraction maps for various gas jet diffusion flames. In this study, we present the first 1-g and 0-g comparisons of soot volume fraction maps for laminar acetylene and nitrogen-diluted acetylene jet diffusion flames. Volume fraction is one of the most useful properties in the study of sooting diffusion flames. The amount of radiation heat transfer depends directly on the volume fraction and this parameter can be measured from line-of-sight extinction measurements. Although most Soot aggregates are submicron in size, the primary particles (20 to 50 nm in diameter) are in the Rayleigh limit, so the extinction absorption) cross section of aggregates can be accurately approximated by the Rayleigh solution as a function of incident wavelength, particles' complex refractive index, and particles' volume fraction.

Greenberg, Paul S.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Aerosol Retrievals from Different Polarimeters During the ACEPOL Campaign Using a Common Retrieval Algorithm

In this paper, we present aerosol retrieval results from the ACEPOL (Aerosol Characterization from Polarimeter and Lidar) campaign, which was a joint initiative between NASA and SRON – the Netherlands Institute for Space Research. The campaign took place in October–November 2017 over the western part of the United States. During ACEPOL six different instruments were deployed on the NASA ER-2 high-altitude aircraft, including four multi-angle polarimeters (MAPs): SPEX airborne, the Airborne Hyper Angular Rainbow Polarimeter (AirHARP), the Airborne Multi-angle SpectroPolarimetric Imager (AirMSPI), and the Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP). Also, two lidars participated: the High Spectral Resolution Lidar-2 (HSRL-2) and the Cloud Physics Lidar (CPL). Flights were conducted mainly for scenes with low aerosol load over land, but some cases with higher AOD were also observed. We perform aerosol retrievals from SPEX airborne, RSP (410–865 nm range only), and AirMSPI using the SRON aerosol retrieval algorithm and compare the results against AERONET (AErosol RObotic NETwork) and HSRL-2 measurements (for SPEX airborne and RSP). All three MAPs compare well against AERONET for the aerosol optical depth (AOD), with a mean absolute error (MAE) between 0.014 and 0.024 at 440 nm. For the fine-mode effective radius the MAE ranges between 0.021 and 0.028 µm. For the comparison with HSRL-2 we focus on a day with low AOD (0.02–0.14 at 532 nm) over the California Central Valley, Arizona, and Nevada (26 October) as well as a flight with high AOD (including measurements with AOD>1.0 at 532 nm) over a prescribed forest fire in Arizona (9 November). For the day with low AOD the MAEs in AOD (at 532 nm) with HSRL-2 are 0.014 and 0.022 for SPEX and RSP, respectively, showing the capability of MAPs to provide accurate AOD retrievals for the challenging case of low AOD over land. For the retrievals over the smoke plume a reasonable agreement in AOD between the MAPs and HSRL-2 was also found (MAE 0.088 and 0.079 for SPEX and RSP, respectively), despite the fact that the comparison is hampered by large spatial variability in AOD throughout the smoke plume. A good comparison is also found between the MAPs and HSRL-2 for the aerosol depolarization ratio (a measure of particle sphericity), with an MAE of 0.023 and 0.016 for SPEX and RSP, respectively. Finally, SPEX and RSP agree very well for the retrieved microphysical and optical properties of the smoke plume.

Fu, Guangliang↗
NASA NTRS1969

Vegetation changes caused by fire in the Florida flatwoods as observed by remote sensing

The nature of the flatwoods and the role that ground fires have played in maintaining them are discussed. Emphasis is placed on the areal and temporal extent of burns as recorded uniformly by remote sensors. Thermal infrared, color infrared, and Ektachrome imagery were obtained from sensors flown by a NASA aircraft at 15,000 feet over a test site in Osceola County, Florida, in March 1968. The overall pattern of burning can be sequenced and mapped uniformly from the imagery. By comparing the various imagery, areal and temporal extent of burned areas can be determined. It was concluded that remote sensed imagery provides more accurate and areally comprehensive media for assessing the impact of ground fires on the landscape of the flatwoods region than are available from any other data source.

Mealor, W. T., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1980

An automatic locating system for cloud-to-ground lightning

Automatic locating systems which respond to cloud to ground lightning and which discriminate against cloud discharges and background noise are described. Subsystems of the locating system, which include the direction finder and the position analyzer, are discussed. The direction finder senses the electromagnetic fields radiated by lightning on two orthogonal magnetic loop antennas and on a flat plate electric antenna. The position analyzer is a preprogrammed microcomputer system which automatically computes, maps, and records lightning locations in real time using data inputs from the direction finder. The use of the locating systems for wildfire management and fire weather forecasting is discussed.

Krider, E. P.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Enhancements in Deriving Smoke Emission Coefficients from Fire Radiative Power Measurements

Smoke emissions have long been quantified after-the-fact by simple multiplication of burned area, biomass density, fraction of above-ground biomass, and burn efficiency. A new algorithm has been suggested, as described in Ichoku & Kaufman (2005), for use in calculating smoke emissions directly from fire radiative power (FRP) measurements such that the latency and uncertainty associated with the previously listed variables are avoided. Application of this new, simpler and more direct algorithm is automatic, based only on a fire's FRP measurement and a predetermined coefficient of smoke emission for a given location. Attaining accurate coefficients of smoke emission is therefore critical to the success of this algorithm. In the aforementioned paper, an initial effort was made to derive coefficients of smoke emission for different large regions of interest using calculations of smoke emission rates from MODIS FRP and aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements. Further work had resulted in a first draft of a 1 1 resolution map of these coefficients. This poster will present the work done to refine this algorithm toward the first production of global smoke emission coefficients. Main updates in the algorithm include: 1) inclusion of wind vectors to help refine several parameters, 2) defining new methods for calculating the fire-emitted AOD fractions, and 3) calculating smoke emission rates on a per-pixel basis and aggregating to grid cells instead of doing so later on in the process. In addition to a presentation of the methodology used to derive this product, maps displaying preliminary results as well as an outline of the future application of such a product into specific research opportunities will be shown.

Ellison, Luke↗
NASA NTRS2010

NASA Tech Briefs, January 2010

Topics covered include: Cryogenic Flow Sensor; Multi-Sensor Mud Detection; Gas Flow Detection System; Mapping Capacitive Coupling Among Pixels in a Sensor Array; Fiber-Based Laser Transmitter for Oxygen A-Band Spectroscopy and Remote Sensing; Low-Profile, Dual-Wavelength, Dual-Polarized Antenna; Time-Separating Heating and Sensor Functions of Thermistors in Precision Thermal Control Applications; Cellular Reflectarray Antenna; A One-Dimensional Synthetic-Aperture Microwave Radiometer; Electrical Switching of Perovskite Thin-Film Resistors; Two-Dimensional Synthetic-Aperture Radiometer; Ethernet-Enabled Power and Communication Module for Embedded Processors; Electrically Variable Resistive Memory Devices; Improved Attachment in a Hybrid Inflatable Pressure Vessel; Electrostatic Separator for Beneficiation of Lunar Soil; Amorphous Rover; Space-Frame Antenna; Gear-Driven Turnbuckle Actuator; In-Situ Focusing Inside a Thermal Vacuum Chamber; Space-Frame Lunar Lander; Wider-Opening Dewar Flasks for Cryogenic Storage; Silicon Oxycarbide Aerogels for High-Temperature Thermal Insulation; Supercapacitor Electrolyte Solvents with Liquid Range Below -80 C; Designs and Materials for Better Coronagraph Occulting Masks; Fuel-Cell-Powered Vehicle with Hybrid Power Management; Fine-Water-Mist Multiple-Orientation-Discharge Fire Extinguisher; Fuel-Cell Water Separator; Turbulence and the Stabilization Principle; Improved Cloud Condensation Nucleus Spectrometer; Better Modeling of Electrostatic Discharge in an Insulator; Sub-Aperture Interferometers; Terahertz Mapping of Microstructure and Thickness Variations; Multiparallel Three-Dimensional Optical Microscopy; Stabilization of Phase of a Sinusoidal Signal Transmitted Over Optical Fiber; Vacuum-Compatible Wideband White Light and Laser Combiner Source System; Optical Tapers as White-Light WGM Resonators; EPR Imaging at a Few Megahertz Using SQUID Detectors; Reducing Field Distortion in Magnetic Resonance Imaging; Fluorogenic Cell-Based Biosensors for Monitoring Microbes; A Constant-Force Resistive Exercise Unit; GUI to Facilitate Research on Biological Damage from Radiation; On-Demand Urine Analyzer; More-Realistic Digital Modeling of a Human Body; and Advanced Liquid-Cooling Garment Using Highly Thermally Conductive Sheets.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2021

Carolina Coastal Plain Ecological Forecasting: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Map Suitable Venus Flytrap Habitat in an Effort to Inform Conservation, Seed Banking, and Reintroduction in the Carolina Coastal Plain and Sandhills Regions

Although the carnivorous plant Venus flytrap (Dionaea muscipula) is recognized globally, its native range is restricted to a small portion of the North and South Carolina Coastal Plain and Sandhills. Within this limited range, Venus flytrap populations are threatened by habitat loss, fire suppression, and poaching. NASA DEVELOP partnered with the North Carolina Botanical Garden (NCBG), the University of North Carolina Herbarium (NCU), and the North Carolina Natural Heritage Program (NCNHP) to support Venus flytrap conservation. The team developed models based on species presence data and environmental variables using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM) to create a 2021 habitat suitability map for Venus flytrap. These models incorporated Earth observations collected by Landsat 8 Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Advanced Land Observation Satellite (ALOS) Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR), and Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI). To predict areas at high risk of development, the team produced a 2050 land-use change map using TerrSet Land Change Modeler. The team found potential areas of conflict between predicted habitat and forecasted future development. Many areas of suitable habitat were concentrated along the coast where development was likely to occur, placing populations there at risk of extirpation. Overlaying suitable habitat with forecasted land change also identified suitable habitats with minimal risk of development, which may serve as lasting Venus flytrap habitat. These results can inform the NCBG and NCNHP’s conservation decision-making, including targeted seed banking, reintroduction, and prioritization of enduring habitats for protection and management.

Monika Rock↗
NASA NTRS2007

All Source Solution Decision Support Products Created for Stennis Space Center in Response to Hurricane Katrina

In the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and in response to the needs of SSC (Stennis Space Center), NASA required the generation of decision support products with a broad range of geospatial inputs. Applying a systems engineering approach, the NASA ARTPO (Applied Research and Technology Project Office) at SSC evaluated the Center's requirements and source data quality. ARTPO identified data and information products that had the potential to meet decision-making requirements; included were remotely sensed data ranging from high-spatial-resolution aerial images through high-temporal-resolution MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) products. Geospatial products, such as FEMA's (Federal Emergency Management Agency's) Advisory Base Flood Elevations, were also relevant. Where possible, ARTPO applied SSC calibration/validation expertise to both clarify the quality of various data source options and to validate that the inputs that were finally chosen met SSC requirements. ARTPO integrated various information sources into multiple decision support products, including two maps: Hurricane Katrina Inundation Effects at Stennis Space Center (highlighting surge risk posture) and Vegetation Change In and Around Stennis Space Center: Katrina and Beyond (highlighting fire risk posture).

Ross, Kenton W.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Building the Fire Energetics and Emissions Research (FEER) Smoke Emissions Inventory Version 1.0

The Fire Energetics and Emissions Research (FEER) group's new coefficient of emission global gridded product at 1x1 resolution that directly relates fire readiative energy (FRE) to smoke aerosol release, FEERv1.0 Ce, made its public debut in August 2013. Since then, steps have been taken to generate corresponding maps and totals of total particulate matter (PM) emissions using different sources of FRE, and subsequently to simulate the resulting PM(sub 2.5) in the WRF-Chem 3.5 model using emission rates from FEERv1.0 as well as other standard biomass burning emission inventories. An flowchart of the FEER algorithm to calculate Ce is outlined here along with a display of the resulting emissions of total PM globally and also regionally. The modeling results from the WRF-Chem3.5 simulations are also shown.

particulate matter↗
NASA NTRS1990

Plume mechanics and stratocumulus convection

The First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE) marine stratocumulus Intensive Field Observation (IFO) held in July, 1987 produced a data set that is far more comprehensive than data sets from previous stratocumulus experiments. One exciting new development was the use of the 10.6 micron lidar system for cloud-top mapping that was available on the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Electra. This system provided a unique look at the small scales of the turbulence in the clouds, images of the turbulent structures that are quantitatively revealed by conditional sampling (e.g., Khalsa and Greenhut, 1987). The behavior of these updrafts and downdrafts is central to the dynamics of the stratocumulus-topped marine boundary layer. FIRE's objectives of understanding cloud dynamics and how they affect the cloud optical depth - which, in turn, is the crucial factor in determining the clouds' albedo - therefore require the investigation of these drafts. Given here are initial results from a simple model capable of simulating moist, entraining plumes that are subject to water phase changes and radiative heating and cooling. These results correspond, therefore, to the 'dry cloud' case discussed by Lilly and Schubert (1980). The model's simplicity limits the realism of the results - the plumes are assumed not to interact, for example - but the role of radiative processes in influencing the plume dynamics is clear. Also revealed is the role the plumes play is maintaining the cloud-top inversion. The model equations and methodology used, and qualitative results are given.

Hanson, Howard P.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Discrimination of unique biological communities in the Mississippi lignite belt

Small scale hardcopy LANDSAT prints were manually interpreted and color infrared aerial photography was obtained in an effort to identify and map large contiguous areas of old growth hardwood stands within Mississippi's lignite belt which do not exhibit signs of recent disturbance by agriculture, grazing, timber harvesting, fire, or any natural catastrophe, and which may, therefore, contain unique or historical ecological habitat types. An information system using land cover classes derived from digital LANDSAT data and containing information on geology, hydrology, soils, and cultural activities was developed. Using computer-assisted land cover classifications, all hardwood remnants in the study area which are subject to possible disturbance from surface mining were determined. Twelve rare plants were also identified by botanists.

Miller, W. F.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXV: Lunar Remote Sensing: Fire, Ice, and Regolith

The session "Lunar Remote Sensing: Fire, Ice, and Regolith" included the following:Compositional and Structural Study of the Aristarchus Plateau from Integrated UV-VIS-NIR Spectral Data; Clementine 2.7-?m Data: Mapping the Mare and Searching for Water; On the Search for Water at the Lunar Poles: Results of Forward Modeling of Permanently Shaded Areas and Lunar Prospector Measurements; Searching the Moon for Aluminous Mare Basalts Using Compositional Remote-Sensing Constraints I: Finding the Regions of Interest; Semi-automated Extraction of Contours from Lunar Topographic Maps; Basalts in Mare Humorum and S.E. Procellarum; The Hansteen and Helmet Volcanic Dome Regions on the Moon: Stratigraphy and Ages; Derivation of Elemental Abundance Maps at 15-km Spatial Resolution from the Merging of Clementine Optical and Lunar Prospector Geochemical Data; Remote Sensing and Geologic Studies of the Balmer Region of the Moon; Lava Flows in Mare Nubium and Mare Cognitum: A Geological History Based on Analysis of Multispectral Data; Development of Ground-based Lunar VIS/NEAR IR Spectral Imager; A BRDF Measurement Apparatus for Lab-based Samples; A New Source of High Resolution Lunar Images: Amateur Astronomers! ; Leakage of Gamma Rays and Neutrons from Thick Targets Bombarded by Energetic Protons; Progress on Reviving Lunar Orbiter: Scanning, Archiving, and Cartographic Processing at USGS; Modeling Lateral and Vertical Mixing by Impact Cratering with Applications for the Moon; Optical Maturity Study of Stuart#s Crater Candidate Impact; Evidence for Three Basins Beneath Oceanus Procellarum; and Ellipses of the South Pole-Aitken Basin: Implications for Basin Formation.

Source record↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using remotely sensed information to support landslide hazard and exposure assessment throughout the disaster lifecycle

The global coverage and temporal frequency that satellites provide offers a unique opportunity to estimate landslide hazard and exposure throughout the disaster lifecycle, from pre-event planning and forecasting to post-event mapping and impact assessment, and finally to recovery and mitigation. The relevance of satellite-derived data and model products is largely contingent on the spatiotemporal sampling, the hazard characteristics, and the needs from the research or applications community. This work presents an advanced Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) framework that brings together satellite and model products with new machine learning techniques and global inventory data to better model landslide hazard and exposure. We present several new ways to map, model, and assess landslide hazard using a range of satellite data. Two new thrusts of this work are to better account for the exacerbating impacts of fires and to provide a multi-day forecast of potential hazard. Together, these additional components blend information from a suite of satellite and model sources to improve early warning of potentially hazardous areas, identify landslide occurrence and impacts in near real-time, and better characterize the spatiotemporal patterns of landslide hazard and exposure more broadly for future awareness and planning. This suite of tools and products is open to the public and provides information to better assess the potential occurrence and impacts of landslides within different regions of the world. This presentation explores both the architecture behind this framework and examples of how the model components and products have been used by different stakeholders around the world.

Thomas Stanley↗
NASA NTRS2019

Integrating Remote Sensing Observations with NASA's GEOS-5 Modeling Framework in Support of Retrospective Analyses and Seasonal Prediction of Biosphere-Atmosphere CO2 Flux

The absorption of nearly half of all anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by terrestrial and marine ecosystems has played a critical role in mitigating climate change. However, a persistent lack of understanding of these uptake processes impedes attribution, and thereby introduces large uncertainties into projections of the trajectory of carbon and climate in coming decades. A better understanding and quantification of the seasonal and interannual variability of carbon flux between the atmosphere and ocean and terrestrial biospheres is critically needed to improve predictions from Earth system models. We propose to bring together a diverse suite of remote sensing observations, mechanistic models, and NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5) model to address two objective 1) quantify the processes controlling the temporal variability of biosphere-atmosphere CO2 flux on seasonal and interannual timescales from 1989 to 2018 and 2) evaluating the predictability of the components of carbon flux on seasonal timescales. Because GEOS-5 has been developed to incorporate a variety of Earth system observations and includes a complete and physically consistent depiction of the atmosphere, land, and ocean carbon cycles, it represents a unique and ideal synthesis framework for this effort. By expanding the realism of processes that could be included in GEOS-5 seasonal forecasts, this effort supports NASA's goals toward an integrated Earth system modeling and prediction framework.We propose to integrate a number of observations into the GEOS-5 modeling system to refine retrospective estimates of both terrestrial and marine carbon flux and to test hypotheses regarding the effects of climate drivers on terrestrial carbon flux. This will include assimilating several satellite ocean color products in the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model (NOBM) to improve the representation of ocean biology. We will also utilize remote sensing datasets to increase the temporal resolution of global land-use change estimates and fire emissions to better constrain the temporal variability of the terrestrial carbon cycle. This information will be incorporated into two NASA terrestrial biosphere models Catchment-CN, a dynamic vegetation model that is integrated within GEOS-5 and the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, a core modeling resource supporting the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) mission to map biomass. Fluxes will be evaluated through 1) comparison to top-down flux estimates inferred from surface CO2 observations and 2) comparison against available aircraft and satellite observations.By combining predictions of net ecosystem exchange and air-sea CO2 flux from land and ocean models with statistical predictions of land use change, fire, and fossil fuel emissions, we propose to create the first dynamical CO2 forecast on seasonal timescales. Because of the experimental nature of this endeavor, an important project objective will be to evaluate the limits to the predictability of different carbon cycle processes over lead times of 1-12 months using different satellite and surface data streams.

Ott, Lesley↗