NASA NTRS2013
Game changing advances come about by the introduction of new technologies at a time when societal needs create the opportunity for new market solutions. A unique opportunity exists for NASA to bring about such a mobility revolution in General Aviation, extendable to other aviation markets, to maintain leadership in aviation by the United States. This report outlines the research carried out so far under NASA's leadership towards developing a new mobility choice, called Zip Aviation1,2,3. The feasibility, technology and system gaps that need to be addressed, and pathways for successful implementation have been investigated to guide future investment. The past decade indicates exciting trends in transportation technologies, which are quickly evolving. Automobiles are embracing automation to ease driver tasks as well as to completely control the vehicle with added safety (Figure 1). Electric propulsion is providing zero tail-pipe emission vehicles with dramatically lower energy and maintenance costs. These technologies have not yet been applied to aviation, yet offer compelling potential benefits across all aviation markets, and in particular to General Aviation (GA) as an early adopter market. The benefits of such an adoption are applicable in the following areas: Safety: The GA market experiences accident rates that are substantially higher than automobiles or commercial airlines, with 7.5 fatal accidents per 100 million vehicle miles compared to 1.3 for automobiles and.068 for airlines. Approximately 80% of these accidents are caused by some form of pilot error, with another 13% caused by single point propulsion system failure. Emissions: Environmental constraints are pushing for the elimination of 100Low Lead (LL) fuel used in most GA aircraft, with aviation fuel the #1 source of lead emissions into the environment. Aircraft also have no emission control systems (i.e. no catalytic converters etc.), so they are gross hydrocarbon polluters compared to automobiles. Community Noise: Hub and smaller GA airports are facing increasing noise restrictions, and while commercial airliners have dramatically decreased their community noise footprint over the past 30 years, GA aircraft noise has essentially remained same, and moreover, is located in closer proximity to neighborhoods and businesses. Operating Costs: GA operating costs have risen dramatically due to average fuel costs of over $6 per gallon, which has constrained the market over the past decade and resulted in more than 50% lower sales and 35% less yearly operations. Infusion of autonomy and electric propulsion technologies can accomplish not only a transformation of the GA market, but also provide a technology enablement bridge for both larger aircraft and the emerging civil Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) markets. The NASA Advanced General Aviation Transport Experiments (AGATE) project successfully used a similar approach to enable the introduction of primary composite structures and flat panel displays in the 1990s, establishing both the technology and certification standardization to permit quick adoption through partnerships with industry, academia, and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Regional and airliner markets are experiencing constant pressure to achieve decreasing levels of community emissions and noise, while lowering operating costs and improving safety. But to what degree can these new technology frontiers impact aircraft safety, the environment, operations, cost, and performance? Are the benefits transformational enough to fundamentally alter aircraft competiveness and productivity to permit much greater aviation use for high speed and On-Demand Mobility (ODM)? These questions were asked in a Zip aviation system study named after the Zip Car, an emerging car-sharing business model. Zip Aviation investigates the potential to enable new emergent markets for aviation that offer "more flexibility than the existing transportation solutions." These studies indicate that autonomy and electric propulsion technology infusions offer a unique opportunity to provide breakthrough capabilities for new high speed, on-demand travel alternatives that can leapfrog the need for future expensive ground-based infrastructure investment. At the same time, such investments offer a method of laying the foundation for these technologies to be incubated for commercial aviation at lower cost, and with lower initial certification thresholds due to the relatively poor capabilities of GA aircraft to permit early adoption and private market capitalization by rapid technology accelerations, as depicted in Figure 2.