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At least 217 records · Page 12

A Multi-Satellite Assimilation and Modeling Platform to Construct a Global and Complete view of the Hydrologic Cycle

What captivates me about the research field of satellite remote sensing of the earth system science is the opportunity to help human beings by addressing challenging questions related to the current and future availability of natural resources for domestic, agricultural, and industrial needs. For example, a continuously varying climate poses a threat to the water resource, not only in developing countries, but also in economically well-developed regions, creating the urgent need to characterize and predict its spatial and temporal availability. Specifically, my curiosity is driven by the challenge of merging cutting-edge space technology and earth observations (i.e., remote sensing) with state-of-the-art models for the purpose of improving our scientific knowledge about the variability and the change of the hydrologic cycle.The only practical way to observe the land surface processes (e.g., hydrologic cycle) on continental to global scales is via satellite remote sensing. Though remote sensing can make spatially comprehensive measurements of various components of the land surface system, it cannot provide direct information on the entire system, and the measurements represent only a snapshot in time. Physical based models may be used to continuously predict the temporal and spatial earth processes, but these predictions are often poor, due to model initialization, parameter and meteorological forcing errors, and inadequate model physics and/or resolution. Thus, an attractive prospect is to combine the strengths of land surface models and observations (and minimize the weaknesses of both) to provide a superior land surface state estimate. This is the goal of land surface data assimilation. Data assimilation provides a better estimate of the environmental states than either models or observations could individually do. The broad concept of data assimilation can be applied to various disciplines such as hydrology, ecology, environmental hazards, agriculture and economy.My research is targeted to integrating multiple satellite information having multi-sensor and multi-resolution assimilation within today's state-of-the-art hydrologic models. Multi-sensor and multi-resolution assimilation techniques represent a necessary milestone in future earth science applications because they offer the capability of comprehensively integrating disparate types of earth observations via deep-learning techniques. A multi-satellite assimilation and modeling platform will ultimately provide a robust and complete dataset to more fully understand earth's dynamics. In fact, the multi-satellite assimilation platforms build a comprehensive description of the earth processes that is geared toward accurately representing the complexity of natural and anthropogenic interactions in land surface processes. Most importantly, these platforms are suitable as decision support tools for applications across different aspects of earth system science.My recent work has focused on recent multi-sensor data assimilation techniques targeted at improving snow, soil moisture, groundwater, and terrestrial water storage hydrological states.

Girotto, Manuela↗

Relative Contributions of Mean-State Shifts and ENSO-Driven Variability to Precipitation Changes in a Warming Climate

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of regional hydroclimate variability through far-reaching teleconnections. This study uses simulations performed with Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) to investigate how regional precipitation in the 21st century may be affected by changes in both ENSO-driven precipitation variability and slowly-evolving mean rainfall. First, a dominant, time-invariant pattern of canonical ENSO variability (cENSO) is identified in observed SST data. Next, the fidelity with which 33 state-of-the-art CGCMs represent the spatial structure and temporal variability of this pattern (as well as its associated precipitation responses) is evaluated in simulations of 20th century climate change. Possible changes in both the temporal variability of this pattern and its associated precipitation teleconnections are investigated in 21st century climate projections. Models with better representation of the observed structure of the cENSO pattern produce winter rainfall teleconnection patterns that are in better accord with 20th century observations and more stationary during the 21st century. Finally, the model-predicted 21st century rainfall response to cENSO is decomposed into the sum of three terms: 1) the 21st century change in the mean state of precipitation; 2) the historical precipitation response to the cENSO pattern; and 3) a future enhancement in the rainfall response to cENSO, which amplifies rainfall extremes. By examining the three terms jointly, this conceptual framework allows the identification of regions likely to experience future rainfall anomalies that are without precedent in the current climate.

Celine J W Bonfils↗

Changing Arctic Snow Cover: A Review of Recent Developments and Assessment of Future Needs for Observations, Modelling, and Impacts

Snow is a critically important and rapidly changing feature of the Arctic. However, snow-cover and snowpack conditions change through time pose challenges for measuring and prediction of snow. Plausible scenarios of how Arctic snow cover will respond to changing Arctic climate are important for impact assessments and adaptation strategies. Although much progress has been made in understanding and predicting snow-cover changes and their multiple consequences, many uncertainties remain. In this paper, we review advances in snow monitoring and modelling, and the impact of snow changes on ecosystems and society in Arctic regions. Interdisciplinary activities are required to resolve the current limitations on measuring and modelling snow characteristics through the cold season and at different spatial scales to assure human well-being, economic stability, and improve the ability to predict manage and adapt to natural hazards in the Arctic region.

climate change↗

Disturbance and the Carbon Balance of US Forests: A Quantitative Review of Impacts from Harvests, Fires, Insects, and Droughts

Disturbances are a major determinant of forest carbon stocks and uptake. They generally reduce land carbon stocks but also initiate a regrowth legacy that contributes substantially to the contemporary rate of carbon stock increase in US forestlands. As managers and policy makers increasingly look to forests for climate protection and mitigation, and because of increasing concern about changes in disturbance intensity and frequency, there is a need for synthesis and integration of current understanding about the role of disturbances and other processes in governing forest carbon cycle dynamics, and the likely future of this and other sinks for atmospheric carbon. This paper aims to address that need by providing a quantitative review of the distribution, extent and carbon impacts of the major disturbances active in the US. We also review recent trends in disturbances, climate, and other global environmental changes and consider their individual and collective contributions to the US carbon budget now and in the likely future. Lastly, we identify some key challenges and opportunities for future research needed to improve current understanding, advance predictive capabilities, and inform forest management in the face of these pressures. Harvest is found to be the most extensive disturbance both in terms of area and carbon impacts, followed by fire, windthrow and bark beetles, and lastly droughts. Collectively these lead to the gross loss of about 200 Tg C y(exp -1) in live biomass annually across the conterminous US. At the same time, the net change in forest carbon stocks is positive (190 Tg C y(exp -1)), indicating not only forest resilience but also an apparently large response to growth enhancements such as fertilization by CO2 and nitrogen. Uncertainty about disturbance legacies, disturbance interactions, likely trends, and global change factors make the future of the US forest carbon sink unclear. While there is scope for management to enhance carbon sinks in US forests, tradeoffs with other values and uses are likely to significantly limit practical implementation. Continued and expanded remote sensing and field-based monitoring capabilities and manipulative experimentation are needed to improve understanding of the US forest carbon sink, and assess how disturbance processes are responding to the pressures of global environmental change. In addition, continued development and application of holistic, decision support tools that consider a range of forest values are needed to enable managers and policy makers to use the best available information for guiding forest resources now and into the future.

Williams, Christopher A.↗

Analysis of Present Day and Future OH and Methane Lifetime in the ACCMIP Simulations

Results from simulations performed for the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Modeling Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) are analysed to examine how OH and methane lifetime may change from present day to the future, under different climate and emissions scenarios. Present day (2000) mean tropospheric chemical lifetime derived from the ACCMIP multi-model mean is 9.8+/-1.6 yr (9.3+/-0.9 yr when only including selected models), lower than a recent observationally-based estimate, but with a similar range to previous multi-model estimates. Future model projections are based on the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and the results also exhibit a large range. Decreases in global methane lifetime of 4.5 +/- 9.1% are simulated for the scenario with lowest radiative forcing by 2100 (RCP 2.6), while increases of 8.5+/-10.4% are simulated for the scenario with highest radiative forcing (RCP 8.5). In this scenario, the key driver of the evolution of OH and methane lifetime is methane itself, since its concentration more than doubles by 2100 and it consumes much of the OH that exists in the troposphere. Stratospheric ozone recovery, which drives tropospheric OH decreases through photolysis modifications, also plays a partial role. In the other scenarios, where methane changes are less drastic, the interplay between various competing drivers leads to smaller and more diverse OH and methane lifetime responses, which are difficult to attribute. For all scenarios, regional OH changes are even more variable, with the most robust feature being the large decreases over the remote oceans in RCP8.5. Through a regression analysis, we suggest that differences in emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds and in the simulation of photolysis rates may be the main factors causing the differences in simulated present day OH and methane lifetime. Diversity in predicted changes between present day and future OH was found to be associated more strongly with differences in modelled temperature and stratospheric ozone changes. Finally, through perturbation experiments we calculated an OH feedback factor (F) of 1.24 from present day conditions (1.50 from 2100 RCP8.5 conditions) and a climate feedback on methane lifetime of 0.33+-0.13 yr/K, on average. Models that did not include interactive stratospheric ozone effects on photolysis showed a stronger sensitivity to climate, as they did not account for negative effects of climate-driven stratospheric ozone recovery on tropospheric OH, which would have partly offset the overall OH/methane lifetime response to climate change.

atmospheric composition↗

Modelling the hydrological cycle in assessments of climate change

The predictions of climate change studies depend crucially on the hydrological cycles embedded in the different models used. It is shown here that uncertainties in hydrological processes and inconsistencies in both climate and impact models limit confidence in current assessments of climate change. A future course of action to remedy this problem is suggested.

Rind, D.↗

Relative Contributions of Mean-State Shifts and ENSO-Driven Variability to Precipitation Changes in a Warming Climate

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of regional hydroclimate variability through far-reaching teleconnections. This study uses simulations performed with coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) to investigate how regional precipitation in the twenty-first century may be affected by changes in both ENSO-driven precipitation variability and slowly evolving mean rainfall. First, a dominant, time-invariant pattern of canonical ENSO variability (cENSO) is identified in observed SST data. Next, the fidelity with which 33 state-of-the-art CGCMs represent the spatial structure and temporal variability of this pattern (as well as its associated precipitation responses) is evaluated in simulations of twentieth-century climate change. Possible changes in both the temporal variability of this pattern and its associated precipitation teleconnections are investigated in twenty-first-century climate projections. Models with better representation of the observed structure of the cENSO pattern produce winter rainfall teleconnection patterns that are in better accord with twentieth-century observations and more stationary during the twenty-first century. Finally, the model-predicted twenty-first-century rainfall response to cENSO is decomposed into the sum of three terms: 1) the twenty-first-century change in the mean state of precipitation, 2) the historical precipitation response to the cENSO pattern, and 3) a future enhancement in the rainfall response to cENSO, which amplifies rainfall extremes. By examining the three terms jointly, this conceptual framework allows the identification of regions likely to experience future rainfall anomalies that are without precedent in the current climate.

Simulation↗

Increasing Contribution of the Atmospheric Vertical Motion to Precipitation in a Warming Climate

Global warming already influences precipitation, with more intense precipitation in many locations. Although the ‘wet-get-wetter, dry-get-drier’ tendency in mean precipitation holds in many locations, the situations for precipitation extremes are more complex, due to changes in dynamic and thermodynamic influences on atmospheric moisture distributions. Here, we build a dynamically interactive atmospheric moisture model for the present (2006–2025) and the future climate (2081–2100), using outputs from coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models. We find that the dynamic process of vertical advection of moisture dominates the same-day precipitation, while the smaller impact of the thermodynamic process provides available moisture for several days. As climate warms, we find that the dynamical-induced precipitation more completely exhausts the vertically-integrated moisture and the distribution of the dynamic process’s impact on precipitation exhibits a greater spread in the warmer future. The dynamical process is primarily responsible for more extreme heavy precipitation as climate warms, at all latitudes.

Climate and Earth system modelling↗

Confronting Future Models with Future Satellite Observations of Clouds and Aerosols

The NASA Aerosol, Clouds, Convection and Precipitation (ACCP) Study convened a workshop in November 2020 to understand the future of modeling aerosols, clouds, convection and precipitation, and how satellite data can contribute to that future. ACCP is a project to define a satellite mission to be launched late in the 2020’s to advance cloud and aerosol science, following the recommendations of the latest NASA Decadal Survey. The ACCP modeling workshop goal was to answer the following questions: 1. What will be the critical science questions for clouds and aerosols in 10 years? 2. Where will simulations of clouds and aerosols across scales of space (process models to global) and time (nowcasting to climate prediction) be in 10 years? 3. What data will be available from space? What data would provide the most benefit? 4. What are the state of the art methods for confronting models with cloud and aerosol observations, including assimilation and climatological analysis techniques? The virtual workshop was anchored by a series of pre-recorded talks. Two days of synchronous sessions focused on discussion of the talks, along with small group breakout exercises. After an introduction to the ACCP concept came a panel discussing the future of modeling clouds and aerosols across scales. Participants were then asked to contribute their ideas. On the second day, there were two panel discussions. First came a discussion of the future of satellite observing systems. Second was a discussion of model-data synthesis methods. Finally, participants were asked to develop their own model-data synthesis proposal. The meeting began with an overview of the ACCP mission concept by Graeme Stephens (NASA-JPL). ACCP is a satellite mission for clouds and aerosols, likely anchored by advanced active lidar and radar systems in space, designed to observe detailed aerosol profile and type information, as well as cloud microphysics and dynamics. ACCP will integrate across sensors and observational types to get multi-spectral views of the same scenes, with better resolution than is available today. Launch is scheduled for 2027 or 2029. ACCP is being thought of as a comprehensive mission that may comprise more than one platform and more than one orbit plane (i.e., inclined and polar), with multiple combinations of sensors.

Future Models↗

Attribution of Recovery in Lower-Stratospheric Ozone

Multiple satellite and ground-based observations provide consistent evidence that the thickness of Earth's protective ozone layer has stopped declining since 1997, close to the time of peak stratospheric halogen loading. Regression analyses with Effective Equivalent Stratospheric Chlorine (EESC) in conjunction with further analyses using more sophisticated photochemical model calculations constrained by satellite data demonstrate that the cessation of ozone depletion between 18-25 km altitude is consistent with a leveling off of stratospheric abundances of chlorine and bromine, due to the Montreal Protocol and its amendments. However, ozone increases in the lowest part of the stratosphere, from the tropopause to 18 km, account for about half of the improvement in total column ozone during the past 9 years at northern hemisphere mid-latitudes. The increase in ozone for altitudes below 18 km is most likely driven by changes in transport, rather than driven by declining chlorine and bromine. Even with this evidence that the Montreal Protocol and its amendments are having the desired, positive effect on ozone above 18 km, total column ozone is recovering faster than expected due to the apparent transport driven changes at lower altitudes. Accurate prediction of future levels of stratospheric ozone will require comprehensive understanding of the factors that drive temporal changes at various altitudes, and partitioning of the recent transport-driven increases between natural variability and changes in atmospheric structure perhaps related to anthropogenic climate change.

Yang, Eun-Su↗

Attribution of Recovery in Lower-stratospheric Ozone

Multiple satellite and ground-based observations provide consistent evidence that the thickness of Earth's protective ozone layer has stopped declining since 1997, close to the time of peak stratospheric halogen loading. Regression analyses with Effective Equivalent Stratospheric Chlorine (EESC) in conjunction with further analyses using more sophisticated photochemical model calculations constrained by satellite data demonstrate that the cessation of ozone depletion between 18-25 km altitude is consistent with a leveling off of stratospheric abundances of chlorine and bromine, due to the Montreal Protocol and its amendments. However, ozone increases in the lowest part of the stratosphere, from the tropopause to 18 km, account for about half of the improvement in total column ozone during the past 9 years at northern hemisphere mid-latitudes. The increase in ozone for altitudes below 18 km is most likely driven by changes in transport, rather than driven by declining chlorine and bromine. Even with this evidence that the Montreal Protocol and its amendments are having the desired, positive effect on ozone above 18 km, total column ozone is recovering faster than expected due to the apparent transport driven changes at lower altitudes. Accurate prediction of future levels of stratospheric ozone will require comprehensive understanding of the factors that drive temporal changes at various altitudes, and partitioning of the recent transport-driven increases between natural variability and changes in atmospheric structure perhaps related to anthropogenic climate change.

Yang, Eun-Su↗

The Role of Clouds: An Introduction and Rapporteur Report

This paper presents an overview of discussions during the Cloud s Role session at the Observing and Modelling Earth s Energy Flows Workshop. N. Loeb and B. Soden convened this session including 10 presentations by B. Stevens, B. Wielicki, G. Stephens, A. Clement, K. Sassen, D. Hartmann, T. Andrews, A. Del Genio, H. Barker, and M. Sugi addressing critical aspects of the role of clouds in modulating Earth energy flows. Presentation topics covered a diverse range of areas from cloud microphysics and dynamics, cloud radiative transfer, and the role of clouds in large-scale atmospheric circulations patterns in both observations and atmospheric models. The presentations and discussions, summarized below, are organized around several key questions raised during the session. (1) What is the best way to evaluate clouds in climate models? (2) How well do models need to represent clouds to be acceptable for making climate predictions? (3) What are the largest uncertainties in clouds? (4) How can these uncertainties be reduced? (5) What new observations are needed to address these problems? Answers to these critical questions are the topics of ongoing research and will guide the future direction of this area of research.

Taylor, Patrick C.↗

SERVIR: Connecting Space to Village

From space, we can view our planet in new ways. SERVIR empowers people in developing countries to use that view for gaining knowledge and insights about their environments and adaptation to a changing climate. We work with regional decision-makers to foster use of Earth observation satellite data, GIS, and predictive models for addressing water and land use, natural disasters, agricultural problems, biodiversity, and more. These tools can improve the lives, livelihoods, safety, and future of people in communities around the world.

Limaye, Ashutosh S.↗

SERVIR Connecting Space to Village

From space, we can view our planet in new ways. SERVIR empowers people in developing countries to use that view for gaining knowledge and insights about their environments and adaptation to a changing climate. We work with regional decision-makers to foster use of Earth observation satellite data, GIS, and predictive models for addressing water and land use, natural disasters, agricultural problems, biodiversity, and more. These tools can improve the lives, livelihoods, safety, and future of people in communities around the world.

Puzzi Nicolau, Andrea↗

SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere ADditional OZonesondes): A New Ozonesonde Data Set for the Earth Science Community

In the past several years, new tropical tropospheric ozone data products have been developed from TOMS and other satellites. Global chemical-transport models have been developed for interpretation of satellite data and to predict future ozone levels in the troposphere and stratosphere. However, the lack of ozone profile measurements for validation and evaluation of these data sets and models is critical in regions like the tropics. In 1998 NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, in partnership with NOAA/CMDL (Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Lab) and other nations, began a 2-year project to collect weekly ozonesonde measurements at southern hemisphere tropical sites and make the data available to the scientific community at a single electronic location: http://code9lQ.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data services/Shadoz/shadoz hmpq2.htmi A summary of data from the SHADOZ sites will be presented: Ascension Island, Fiji, Tahiti, Galapagos, American Samoa, Natal (Brazil), Reunion Island, Watukosek (Java), Nairobi and Irene, South Africa. SHADOZ is designed to meet other needs: (1) Provide the first climatology of tropical ozone along the equatorial zone for the wave-one pattern in total ozone; (2) Supplement field project observations. (3) Guide algorithm development for future satellite instruments; (4) Train scientists and educators in southern hemisphere tropical locations. From time to time, intensive tropical campaigns are making data available to SHADOZ. Data from the first half of 1999 will include INDOEX (Indian Ocean Experiment), SOWER (Stratospheric Ozone and Water in the Equatorial Region) at Christmas Island (2N, 157W), and a cruise from Norfolk, Virginia to Cape Town and Mauritius on NOAA's RN 'Ronald H Brown.'

Witte, J. C.↗

Understanding Recent Mass Balance Changes of the Greenland Ice Sheet

The ultimate goal of this project is to better understand the current transfer of mass between the Greenland Ice Sheet, the world's oceans and the atmosphere, and to identify processes controlling the rate of this transfer, to be able to predict with greater confidence future contributions to global sea level rise. During the first year of this project, we focused on establishing longer-term records of change of selected outlet glaciers, reevaluation of mass input to the ice sheet and analysis of climate records derived from ice cores, and modeling meltwater production and runoff from the margins of the ice sheet.

vanderVeen, Cornelius↗

Reducing uncertainty about carbon dioxide as a climate driver

The lack of an adequate ancient analogue for future climates means that we ultimately must use and trust climate models, evaluated against modern observation and our best geologic records of warm and cold climates of the past. Armed with an elevated confidence in the models, we will then be able to make reliable predictions of the Earth's response to our risky experiment with the climate system.

Climate↗

Dynamical Forecasts of Tropical Terrestrial Carbon Fluxes with the NASA S2S Retrospective Forecast System

Recent advances in the ability to predict climate anomalies at sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales allow us to explore the possibility of forecasting carbon flux anomalies. Although carbon flux forecasting is a relatively new concept, it is potentially beneficial as it can help us better understand global and regional land-atmosphere carbon feedbacks associated with climate variations and can provide guidance for future field mission design. Here we evaluate the skill of forecasted terrestrial carbon anomalies generated from meteorological anomalies produced with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) S2S forecast system. We focus here on three representative time periods (the most recent 2015-2016 El Nino, 2011 La Nina, and 2014 as a neutral year), with each corresponding 9-month forecast comprising four ensemble members initialized in the preceding December. The meteorological variables produced by the GMAO forecast system were bias-corrected using a climatology derived from the Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) before being used to drive a suite of offline simulations with the NASA Catchment-CN terrestrial biosphere model, a model that computes water-energy-carbon dynamics. Forecasts are evaluated by comparing against satellite-driven estimates of gross primary production (GPP) and inverse model estimates of net carbon flux that incorporate satellite carbon dioxide measurements. We find that the restrospectively predicted carbon fluxes in the tropics reasonably reproduce the signs and magnitudes of the observed anomalies between the 2015-2016 El Nino and the 2011 La Nina for both net flux and GPP. For instance, for the El Nino period, the magnitude of the forecasted negative GPP anomaly in the South American tropics (which undergoes anomalously warm and dry conditions) agrees with the observed GPP anomaly at leads of up to three or four months. Overall, this study demonstrates potential skill in the forecast of biospheric carbon fluxes a few months in advance, a capability that could contribute to attribution studies focusing on carbon flux variations and support innovative observation strategies in the future.

Lee, Eunjee↗