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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Capacity Gain in Li-Ion Cells with Silicon-Containing Electrodes

Silicon-containing lithium-ion batteries can exhibit capacity gain early in life, which makes forecasting future cell behavior difficult. We have observed these anomalous trends even in conditions where known mechanisms, such as overhang equalization and excessive electrolyte oxidation, are unlikely to be significant. Here, we combine simulations and experiments to analyze four cases that can produce increased capacity in Si cells. Three of these pathways relate to “break-in” processes, where improved mass and charge transport can lead to increased access to active electrode domains and decreased cell impedance. The fourth case occurs at high levels of prelithiation, when the positive electrode (PE) is completely replenished with Li + at the end of cell discharge. We show that the commonality among these mechanisms is that the underlying transformations change the potentials experienced by electrodes at the end of half-cycles, increasing the Li + inventory available to the cell. A quantitative framework to describe these effects is presented, enabling these ideas to be extended to other battery systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Providing Geospatial Intelligence through a Scalable Imagery Pipeline

This chapter describes ORNL’s (Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s) contributions to imagery preprocessing for geospatial intelligence research and development (R&D) in four sections. First, we discuss challenges involved in building an effective imagery preprocessing workflow and the world-class high-performance computing (HPC) resources at ORNL available to process petabytes of imagery data. Second, we highlight how we developed imagery preprocessing tools over three decades while paving the way for our current cutting-edge machine learning and computer vision algorithms that are impacting humanitarian and disaster response efforts. Third, we discuss how PIPE modules work together to turn raw images into analysis-ready datasets. Fourth, we look toward the future and discuss planned advancements to PIPE and computing trends that will affect geospatial intelligence R&D.

Reith, Andrew↗
DOE OSTI2024

Compound Flooding in Halmstad: Common Causes, Interannual Variability and the Effects of Climate Change

Compound flooding was investigated in Halmstad on the Swedish west coast. The highest sea level ever recorded in Sweden was recorded by the Halmstad tide gauge. Moreover, through the city runs Nissan, one of the largest hydropower-producing rivers in southern Sweden. Together these features make the city an interesting location to study compound flooding. Co-variability between different hazards are studied using a unique set of downscaled climate scenario projections produced using state-of-the-art regional atmosphere, ocean and hydrological models. River discharge and sea level annual maxima are found to be correlated with peak strength on interannual time scales. This co-variability is found to derive from a mutual dependence that these hazards have on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Precipitation also shares this dependence in winter months and acts as a driver, building up the fluvial river hazard, while potentially adding additional pluvial hazard. Trends are also assessed, and it was found that future changes in compound flooding will most likely be driven primarily by mean sea level rise and secondarily by increases in mean river discharge.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Clean Grid Vision: A U.S. Perspective - Executive Summary

Clean Grid Vision: A U.S. Perspective aims to present a range of possible pathways for future grid development and call attention to some common trends. It focuses on the lessons learned through NREL’s studies of the U.S. power sector that have measured the impacts of high-penetration VRE and have tested strategies for enhancing grid flexibility and reliability. As such, this report is limited in its scope and does not attempt to review or summarize all grid integration literature. While it refers to relevant external literature to provide context when needed, this report is primarily a summary of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) research in the past 5 years on five key topics: grid planning and operation, grid reliability at the distribution level, grid reliability at the transmission level, demand-side resources, and power markets—each corresponds to a chapter in this report. The main insights of the report are presented in this executive summary.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Workshop on Integrated Sensor Systems for Manufacturing Applications (Workshop Report)

On January 25th and 26th, the Department of Energy’s Advanced Manufacturing Office (AMO) held the first in a series of workshops on different topics related to semiconductor research and development (R&D). This workshop focused on integrated sensor system R&D for manufacturing applications. As AMO is housed within the office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), the workshop addressed not only industry needs and R&D opportunities, but also the impacts that improvements in sensor systems can have on energy efficiency and greenhouse gas production. The output of this workshop will inform AMO’s future portfolio of R&D investments, provide perspectives on trends, drivers, and challenges for next generation semiconductor sensor systems, and help the stakeholder community understand the opportunities on the horizon.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transitioning to Hybrid Power Plants

Hybrid power plants are power generation systems that combine two or more types of electricity generation or storage, creating systems where the optimal dispatch provides more benefits that the sum of the individual components can. These plants exemplify the interconnected challenges of grid modernization. On one hand, rapid increase in deployment and enhanced controllability of renewable energy assets is needed to meet clean energy targets, but on the other, increasing electrification makes it more difficult to manage load and growth in the number of endpoints and stakeholders involved with hybrid plants complicates asset management and cybersecurity. This talk will cover trends in hybrid power plant technologies and deployments, identify future prospects for hybrid systems, and discuss the challenges and research opportunities that exist to transition from the traditional power grids of today to smart, distributed, hybrid power grids we may see in the next few decades.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Warming response of peatland CO 2 sink is sensitive to seasonality in warming trends

Peatlands have acted as net CO 2 sinks over millennia, exerting a global climate cooling effect. Rapid warming at northern latitudes, where peatlands are abundant, can disturb their CO 2 sink function. In this work, we show that sensitivity of peatland net CO 2 exchange to warming changes in sign and magnitude across seasons, resulting in complex net CO 2 sink responses. We use multiannual net CO 2 exchange observations from 20 northern peatlands to show that warmer early summers are linked to increased net CO 2 uptake, while warmer late summers lead to decreased net CO 2 uptake. Thus, net CO 2 sinks of peatlands in regions experiencing early summer warming, such as central Siberia, are more likely to persist under warmer climate conditions than are those in other regions. Our results will be useful to improve the design of future warming experiments and to better interpret large-scale trends in peatland net CO 2 uptake over the coming few decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

An Analysis of Future Wind Energy Resources and Cost Uncertainties Across the United States

Wind power is a growing source of energy generation that relies on complex global atmospheric and earth system processes. There has been evidence of reductions in average wind speeds over land in North America since the 1980s, and several models project that average wind speeds will continue to decrease. Concurrently, the cost of wind energy systems in the United States has been decreasing since around 2010, a trend also projected to continue. There is considerable uncertainty in these future projections, with quantitative estimates of future wind resource and system costs varying widely. To study this, we run wind energy models with possible future system costs, turbine designs, and meteorological inputs from multiple downscaled earth system models over the contiguous United States. Changes in mean annual energy production from 2000-2019 to 2040-2059 can be as high as +10% in South Texas or as low as -20% in Iowa. Larger turbines and moderate reductions in system costs can offset the largest projected decreases in wind resource, but much uncertainty remains in the extent to which wind resources will change and to what extent system costs can be reduced. An analysis of variance shows, in several states in the Midwest, uncertainty in future wind resources can influence the cost of wind energy nearly as much as uncertainty in future system costs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Disaggregating Future Retail Electricity Rate Growth [Slides]

Recent Berkeley Lab research found that modest retail rate increases over the past 10 years were mostly driven by large increases in capital expenditures (CapEx) that were offset in part by substantial wholesale price reductions. Decision-makers are increasingly concerned about the potential future rate impacts of a number of policies and industry trends that support rapid decarbonization, electrification, and grid modernization. Using historical FERC Form 1 data and the existing literature on policies and industry trends that are likely to affect utility-incurred costs and retail sales, Berkeley Lab researchers developed ranges of forecasted growth rates for cost-related rate drivers (i.e., fuel and purchased power; transmission, distribution, generation, and other categories of both non-fuel operations & maintenance and CapEx) and non-cost related rate drivers (i.e., retail sales, peak demand, and customers). These were then used as inputs to a pro-forma utility financial model (FINDER) that estimated the growth in retail electric rates between 2020 and 2030 for a prototypical vertically-integrated investor-owned utility in the United States. The analysis produced the following results: 1. Assuming average growth rates in all rate drivers, future retail rate growth is driven by sizable increases in all CapEx costs, where fuel and purchased power costs are replaced by generation CapEx as the largest rate component between 2020 and 2030. 2. Growth in sales/peak demand/customers, generation CapEx costs, and fuel and purchased power (FPP) costs, in isolation, produce the most uncertainty in rate growth. Specifically, a 1% increase in the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of retail sales, coincident peak demand (CP), and customers (Sales-CP-Cust) results in a 0.88-0.93% decrease in the CAGR of rates, in isolation. However, a 1% increase in the CAGR of generation CapEx budgets results in a 0.07-0.14% increase in the CAGR of rates, while a 1% increase in the CAGR of FPP costs causes a 0.10-0.14% increase in the CAGR of rates, all else being equal. 3. Taking into account the correlation and variability of the growth in all rate drivers jointly, generation CapEx is expected to be both the largest and most uncertain rate component by 2030 (20-25% share of the retail rate). Transmission and distribution CapEx, along with fuel and purchased power costs are each expected to comprise between 12% and 17% of retail rates.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Are scenario projections overly optimistic about future yield progress?

Historical increases in agricultural production were achieved predominantly by large increases in agricultural productivity. Intensification of crop and livestock production also plays a key role in future projections of agricultural land use. Here, we assess and discuss projections of crop yields by global agricultural land-use and integrated assessment models. To evaluate these crop yield projections, we compare them to empirical data on attainable yields by employing a linear and plateauing continuation of observed attainable yield trends. While keeping in mind the uncertainties of attainable yields projections and future climate change impacts, we find that, on average for all cereals on the global level, global projected yields by 2050 remain below the attainable yields. Additionally, this is also true for future pathways with high technological progress and mitigation efforts, indicating that projected yield increases are not overly optimistic, even under systemic transformations. Furthermore, on a regional scale, we find that for developing regions, specifically for sub-Saharan Africa, projected yields stay well below attainable yields, indicating that the large yield gaps which could be closed through improved crop management, may also persist in the future. In OECD countries, in contrast, current yields are already close to attainable yields, and the projections approach or, for some models, even exceed attainable yields by 2050. This observation parallels research suggesting that future progress in attainable yields in developed regions will mainly have to be achieved through new crop varieties or genetic improvements. The models included in this study vary widely in their implementation of yield progress, which are often split into endogenous (crop management) improvements and exogenous (technological) trends. More detail and transparency are needed in these important elements of global yields and land use projections, and this paper discusses possibilities of better aligning agronomic understanding of yield gaps and yield potentials with modelling approaches.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Future Wind Energy Resources and Cost Uncertainties Across the United States

This dataset contains results estimating projections of change of annual capacity factors and levelized cost of energy for several turbine technologies in the 2024 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB). Projections of change are based on downscaled earth system model (ESM) data from Sup3rCC. There has been evidence of reductions in average wind speeds over land in North America since the 1980s, and several models project that average wind speeds will continue to decrease. Concurrently, the cost of wind energy systems in the United States has been decreasing since around 2010, a trend also projected to continue. There is considerable uncertainty in these future projections, with quantitative estimates of future wind resource and system costs varying widely. To study this, we run land-based wind energy models with a range of possible future system costs, turbine designs, and meteorological inputs from multiple downscaled earth system models over the contiguous United States to estimate critical system performance metrics such as annual energy production (AEP) and levelized cost of energy. Where multiple earth system models agree, changes in mean AEP from the time period 2000-2019 to 2040-2059 can be as high as +10% in South Texas or as low as -20% in Iowa. Several additional states in the Midwest that currently have considerable wind generation capacity show the possibility of substantial decreases in AEP by mid-century. Larger turbines and moderate reductions in system costs can offset even the largest projected decreases in wind resource, but much uncertainty remains in the extent to which wind resources will actually change into the future and to what extent wind energy systems can drive down future costs. An analysis of variance shows, in several states in the Midwest, the uncertainty in future wind resource can be almost as important for future changes in the cost of wind energy as the uncertainty in future system costs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Changing Trends in Drought Patterns over the Northeastern United States Using Multiple Large Ensemble Datasets

Since the infamous extreme drought of the 1960s, the climate of the northeastern United States (NEUS) has generally trended toward warmer and wetter conditions. Nonetheless, there is mounting evidence that short-term droughts will continue to pose a significant risk for this region. To better explore the processes governing events such as these, climate models have adopted more complex representations of the fully coupled atmosphere–land–ocean–sea ice system; however, large uncertainties in future projections still persist, with internal variability necessitating large ensembles to understand trends in both rare and high-impact extreme events such as rapidly developing droughts (a term here that includes flash droughts developing on monthly scales). In this study, seven large ensemble (LE) models are employed to answer the outstanding question: How are the frequency and character of drought in the NEUS changing under a warming climate? We find that most LE models indicate the NEUS will experience a long-term wetting trend with more “extremely wet” months, but also more frequent short-term extreme droughts. These changes are associated with increasing precipitation, atmospheric water demand, and climate variability. We also conclude that discrepant trends in precipitation and evapotranspiration variability will lead to increasing anticorrelation of these variables, which is relevant to the intensification of rapidly developing drought, particularly in the spring season. These changes are associated with an increase in evapotranspiration from plants, brought by an earlier emergence of the growing season and denser vegetation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Direct sensitivity analysis on the parameterization of crystal plasticity models

Various methods for calibrating crystal plasticity finite element (CPFE) models lead to non-unique input parameter values, which subsequently introduce uncertainty in the predicted mechanical response. Sensitivity analysis (SA) conducted on crystal plasticity models is used to identify how variability in these parameters contribute to output uncertainty. Traditional SA on CPFE parameters uses simplified surrogate models to save computational time. However, the accuracy of the surrogate models depends on the quantity of training data used, and any modeling error can propagate into the SA results, potentially affecting their reliability. In this work, the elementary effects test (EET) method, a global SA technique using direct CPFE simulations was employed, and the results obtained were compared with the First Order Second Moment (FOSM) method. ExaConstit, an open-source GPU-enabled CPFE code, was used to perform the simulations and direct SA. The EET method was accurately able to capture the non-linear effects of all the input parameters on the output and is a valuable approach for reliably attributing parameter sensitivities in CPFE models. Based on the results, efficient strategies to perform future parameter calibration and SA are discussed. Additionally, the SA trends observed in different single crystal orientations closely mirrored the activity of the slip systems.

Elementary Effects Test↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantification of human contribution to soil moisture-based terrestrial aridity

Abstract Current knowledge of the spatiotemporal patterns of changes in soil moisture-based terrestrial aridity has considerable uncertainty. Using Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) calculated from multi-source merged data sets, we find widespread drying in the global midlatitudes, and wetting in the northern subtropics and in spring between 45°N–65°N, during 1971–2016. Formal detection and attribution analysis shows that human forcings, especially greenhouse gases, contribute significantly to the changes in 0–10 cm SSI during August–November, and 0–100 cm during September–April. We further develop and apply an emergent constraint method on the future SSI’s signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios and trends under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5. The results show continued significant presence of human forcings and more rapid drying in 0–10 cm than 0–100 cm. Our findings highlight the predominant human contributions to spatiotemporally heterogenous terrestrial aridification, providing a basis for drought and flood risk management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Economic Valuation of Coccidioidomycosis (Valley Fever) Projections in the United States in Response to Climate Change

Coccidioidomycosis, or valley fever, is an infectious fungal disease currently endemic to the southwestern United States. Symptoms of valley fever range in severity from flu-like illness to severe morbidity and mortality. Warming temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns may cause the area of endemicity to expand northward throughout the western United States, putting more people at risk for contracting valley fever. This may increase the health and economic burdens from this disease. We developed an approach to describe the relationship between climate conditions and valley fever incidence using historical data and generated projections of future incidence in response to both climate change and population trends using the Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) framework developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. We also developed a method to estimate economic impacts of valley fever that is based on case counts. For our 2000–15 baseline time period, we estimated annual medical costs, lost income, and economic welfare losses for valley fever in the United States were 400,000 USD per case, and the annual average total cost was 3.9 billion USD per year. For a high greenhouse gas emission scenario and accounting for population growth, we found that total annual costs for valley fever may increase up to 164% by year 2050 and up to 380% by 2090. By the end of the twenty-first century, valley fever may cost 620,000 USD per case and the annual average total cost may reach $18.5 billion per year. This work contributes to the broader effort to monetize climate change–attributable damages in the United States.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Status and prospects of lithium iron phosphate manufacturing in the lithium battery industry

Abstract Lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO 4 , LFP) has long been a key player in the lithium battery industry for its exceptional stability, safety, and cost-effectiveness as a cathode material. Major car makers (e.g., Tesla, Volkswagen, Ford, Toyota) have either incorporated or are considering the use of LFP-based batteries in their latest electric vehicle (EV) models. Despite LFP’s well-researched status as a cathode material, it is expected to fulfill additional demands in electric vehicle applications, such as fast-charging capabilities, wide temperature range adaptability, and higher energy density. This perspective examines the LFP supply chain, synthetic approaches, manufacturing processes, market trends, recent advancements, and evolving demands to better understand its future role in the EV market. Graphical abstract

Lu, Yanying↗
DOE OSTI2023

Next-Generation Marine Energy Software Needs Assessment

Over the past decade the marine energy industry has continued to grow and evolve, with new concepts and technologies constantly being pursued. Additionally, the field of computing is vastly different today than it was five or ten years ago. By utilizing advanced software and hardware architectures, like graphics processing units as well as parallelization and high-performance computing resources, software can produce higher quality outputs and a higher volume of outputs. These software and hardware resources can enable the marine energy community to exploit computational advancements from other research fields, which can include machine learning, differentiable programming, and controls co-design. Better integration of existing software and development of potential new software is necessary to take advantage of trends in modern computing and respond to the current and future needs of the marine energy community. In order to better understand the existing marine energy software landscape and industry needs, DOE's Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO) tasked Sandia National Laboratories and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to update the needs assessment by identifying existing software gaps and software needs, and assisting WPTO in planning the next wave of marine energy software development. The proposed effort involved cataloguing and analyzing the available data on existing software related to marine energy. The marine energy software landscape has vastly changed in the last ten years. There are now nearly 230 different software packages utilized by the marine energy sector, compared to a decade ago when the Cardinal Engineering survey identified approximately 40 software packages. In 2012, the marine energy software landscape was captured in two tables, whereas the current marine energy software landscape required development of a software database to collect and categorize software.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗