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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Aqueous organic flow batteries for sustainable energy storage

Aqueous Organic Redox Flow Batteries (RFBs) have the potential to address the large-scale need for storing electrical energy from intermittent sources like solar- and wind-based generation. Unlike metal-based redox systems, small organic molecules present the prospect of achieving sustainability, by being synthesizable from abundantly available carbon dioxide, water, nitrogen, sulfur, and renewable energy. This mini-review focuses on the progress and challenges in designing water-based RFBs based on small organic molecules that can address the requirements of large-scale energy storage. Further, much of the recent research in this area involves discovering new molecular architectures via computational screening, understanding degradation, and cell configurations to address the techno-economic challenges of extraordinary electrochemical durability, recyclability, low cost of precursor materials, and good solubility. Redox materials for the positive side of the cell are notably few. Future research must continue to focus on these techno-economic challenges through rapid materials discovery.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of a high-fidelity multi-physics coupling between MCNP6.2 and CTF4.0 for VVER applications

Ensuring system safety in the design, licensing, and operation phases is a priority in the nuclear industry. Performing extensive, full-scale reactor safety experiments is often prohibitive due to the large associated costs. Computational simulations offer an alternative safety analysis method, typically with significant cost reductions. Recent high-level developments in technology and increased availability of computational resources have allowed the development of high-fidelity, high-resolution multi-physics coupled codes. Such developments may be used to generate reference models for deterministic core calculations. Under this framework, the high-fidelity continuous energy Monte Carlo-based neutron transport code MCNP6.2 was coupled externally with the state-of-the-art thermal-hydraulics subchannel code, CTF4.0 for VVER (Water-Water Energetic Reactor) applications. A VVER-1000 fuel assembly model was used to demonstrate the capability of the coupled code. The converged coupled solution is compared to initial results, consisting of the first MCNP evaluation and first CTF evaluation after initialization. The VVER-1000 type assembly results are compared to other evaluations of the same assembly model. The findings indicate good agreement with expectations and reference cases, where available. The initial results of the coupled MCNP6.2/CTF4.0 calculations at the assembly level for steady-state calculations are presented in this study, which may support future work toward high-fidelity coupled full-core modeling capabilities. The multi-physics model may be further improved, enhanced, and expanded for both cycle depletion and transient applications. Such a multi-physics system will also be applicable to the VVER-1200 and other triangular lattice designs and support their deployment and operation safely and economically. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hydrogenerate: Open Source Python Tool To Estimate Hydropower Generation Time-series

Hydropower is one of the most mature forms of renewable energy generation. The United States (US) has almost 103 GW of installed, with 80 GW of conventional generation and 23 GW of pumped hydropower [1]. Moreover, the potential for future development on Non-Powered Dams is up to 10 GW. With the US setting its goals to become carbon neutral [2], more renewable energy in the form of hydropower needs to be integrated with the grid. Currently, there are no publicly available tool that can estimate the hydropower potential for existing hydropower dams or other non-powered dams. The HydroGenerate is an open-source python library that has the capability of estimating hydropower generation based on flow rate either provided by the user or received from United States Geological Survey (USGS) water data services. The tool calculates the efficiency as a function of flow based on the turbine type either selected by the user or estimated based on the “head” provided by the user.

Mitra, Bhaskar↗
DOE OSTI2022

A coupled ground heat flux–surface energy balance model of evaporation using thermal remote sensing observations

Abstract. One of the major undetermined problems in evaporation (ET) retrieval using thermal infrared remote sensing is the lack of a physically based ground heat flux (G) model and its integration within the surface energy balance (SEB) equation. Here, we present a novel approach based on coupling a thermal inertia (TI)-based mechanistic G model with an analytical surface energy balance model, Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC, version STIC1.2). The coupled model is named STIC-TI. The model is driven by noon–night (13:30 and 01:30 local time) land surface temperature, surface albedo, and a vegetation index from MODIS Aqua in conjunction with a clear-sky net radiation sub-model and ancillary meteorological information. SEB flux estimates from STIC-TI were evaluated with respect to the in situ fluxes from eddy covariance measurements in diverse ecosystems of contrasting aridity in both the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere. Sensitivity analysis revealed substantial sensitivity of STIC-TI-derived fluxes due to the land surface temperature uncertainty. An evaluation of noontime G (Gi) estimates showed 12 %–21 % error across six flux tower sites, and a comparison between STIC-TI versus empirical G models also revealed the substantially better performance of the former. While the instantaneous noontime net radiation (RNi) and latent heat flux (LEi) were overestimated (15 % and 25 %), sensible heat flux (Hi) was underestimated (22 %). Overestimation (underestimation) of LEi (Hi) was associated with the overestimation of net available energy (RNi−Gi) and use of unclosed surface energy balance flux measurements in LEi (Hi) validation. The mean percent deviations in Gi and Hi estimates were found to be strongly correlated with satellite day–night view angle difference in parabolic and linear pattern, and a relatively weak correlation was found between day–night view angle difference versus LEi deviation. Findings from this parameter-sparse coupled G–ET model can make a valuable contribution to mapping and monitoring the spatiotemporal variability of ecosystem water stress and evaporation using noon–night thermal infrared observations from future Earth observation satellite missions such as TRISHNA, LSTM, and SBG.

Bhattacharya, Bimal K.↗
DOE OSTI2023

First feedback-controlled divertor detachment in W7-X: Experience from TDU operation and prospects for operation with actively cooled divertor

In the last experimental campaign (OP1.2b) of the stellarator Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X), boronisation as a mean for first wall conditioning was applied for the first time which led to strongly reduced impurity fluxes from plasma-facing components. Thermal detachment at the uncooled target plates of the test divertor unit (TDU) was reached at higher plasma densities and was accompanied by high recycling of neutrals at the target plate. A feedback control system was established in W7-X to actively control the gas injection (actuator) for plasma fuelling and impurity seeding [3] through the divertors. It allowed very successful stabilisation of the detached plasma condition state as well as mitigation of thermal overloads to some baffle tiles. Different routinely available diagnostic signals were used as input parameters (sensors). We describe the setup of the feedback control system, its performance and provide some example results with the main focus on the development of the control scheme which led to the detachment stabilisation over the entire longest (30 s) high-power discharge at W7-X so far. In view of the achieved very successful detachment stabilisation and the necessity to include simultaneous optimisation of the core performance in the future, the feedback control system is being upgraded for the upcoming campaign (OP2.1) in which the water cooled and hereby inherently steady-state capable divertor has been currently installed. The prospects and some experiment ideas for active detachment control are discussed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Leveraging Existing Assets for Long Duration Energy Storage

Increased renewables penetration to electrical grid is necessary to reduce overall emissions from the electrical power generation sector. Nonetheless, its integration creates challenges to grid operators who must match the power being generated by intermittent renewables and other traditional energy sources with the demand from consumers, while ensuring the reliability and power quality for the entire system. Energy storage has been proposed as an alternative to natural gas peaking plants and a form to deliver excess renewable energy generation at times of peak demand. For energy storage to provide benefits to end customers (energy consumers), it must be reliable, efficient, and cost effective. The Illinois Sustainable Technology Center (ISTC), one of the surveys that integrate the Prairie Research Institute (PRI), aims to develop a Center for Energy Storage at Existing Assets (CESEA) at UIUC with the participation of Waste Pressure Corp and Ecotek Engineering USA LLC. CESEA will focus on LDES systems that can integrate to existing infrastructure in a manner that reduces the initial capital expenditure and demonstrates the ability to repurpose fossil assets that would otherwise become stranded, to serve the energy transition. CESEA aims to leverage UIUC’s unique facilities to validate LDES systems performance at a relevant operating environment. UIUC’s facilities include a 85-MW combined heat and power (CHP) power plant, two (2) solar PV plants totaling over 18 MWdc of installed capacity, an electrical grid along with a substation at transmission and distribution voltages, a 22-mile gas pipeline network operating at two pressure levels, along with steam and chilled water distribution networks. The new LDES systems will connect to the existing UIUC grid through a new test electrical station, which will have the capacity to accommodate additional connections to test new devices and technologies as part of future CESEA R&D activities. The test electrical station will contain meters, instrumentation, and controls to accurately capture data and allow optimization of control algorithms. CESEA will initially focus on technologies that: i) utilize existing equipment or facilities to perform at least one of the process steps in LDES (charging, storage, or discharging), ii) leverage mature or commercially available components or controls, iii) show potential for cost-leadership in 10+ hour storage at a commercial scale. Initial technologies that were identified to meet these criteria include Compressed Gas Energy Storage (CGES), and TES. CGES stores electricity by raising the pressure of a compressible gas inside a control volume and converting the stored energy to electricity via expansion-generation. CGES is a generalization of CAES that covers any working gas (not just air). A successful CGES demo will help to circumvent many challenges faced by CAES (long development times due to site prospecting, high cost of compression and storage, heat recovery management, etc.) by: 1) utilizing existing infrastructure (compressors, pipelines, underground storage or pressure vessels) used in the transportation and storage of industrial gases for LDES charging and storage; 2) deploying over sites already-developed for industrial applications with minor additional work; 3) leveraging the price structure of commercial industrial gas to cover the costs of electricity used during charging. A previous DOE-sponsored conceptual study (DE-FE-0032018) estimated the levelized cost of energy of a 1.1 MW / 17 MWh CGES system at $0.08/kWh, with a commercial 10x scale system cost estimated at <$0.04/kWh (Giardinella, 2022). The pilot-sized system was estimated to avoid up to 2693 tons of CO2/year.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Large Area Transfer of Bismuth‐Based Layered Oxide Thin Films Using a Flexible Polymer Transfer Method

Magnetic and ferroelectric oxide thin films have long been studied for their applications in electronics, optics, and sensors. The properties of these oxide thin films are highly dependent on the film growth quality and conditions. To maximize the film quality, epitaxial oxide thin films are frequently grown on single-crystal oxide substrates such as strontium titanate (SrTiO 3 ) and lanthanum aluminate (LaAlO 3 ) to satisfy lattice matching and minimize defect formation. However, these single-crystal oxide substrates cannot readily be used in practical applications due to their high cost, limited availability, and small wafer sizes. One leading solution to this challenge is film transfer. In this demonstration, a material from a new class of multiferroic oxides is selected, namely bismuth-based layered oxides, for the transfer. A water-soluble sacrificial layer of Sr 3 Al 2 O 6 is inserted between the oxide substrate and the film, enabling the release of the film from the original substrate onto a polymer support layer. The films are transferred onto new substrates of silicon and lithium niobate (LiNbO 3 ) and the polymer layer is removed. These substrates allow for the future design of electronic and optical devices as well as sensors using this new group of multiferroic layered oxide films.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

GCAM-USA: IM3 Phase 2 Official Simulations

Overview GCAM-USA simulates 21st century energy-water-land interactions in global regions with sub-national detail in the United States (US). The IM3 project is focused on US multisector dynamics and has created eight GCAM-USA simulations by combining two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) with four high-resolution climate projections specific to the United States (see https://tgw-data.msdlive.org/). These climate projections include "hotter" and "cooler" variants for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The resulting eight GCAM-USA simulations are named: rcp45cooler_ssp3 rcp45cooler_ssp5 rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85cooler_ssp3 rcp85cooler_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 Detailed Assumptions The SSPs describe alternative socioeconomic futures and their implications for both the US and global environmental challenges. As implemented in GCAM-USA, the primary difference between SSP3 and SSP5 in the US is their population growth projections, with SSP3 foreseeing lower growth and SSP5 projecting higher growth. The four climate projections explore moderate (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas emission (GHG) trajectories, each with a hotter and cooler climate variation based on the range of global climate model simulations in CMIP6s. These four climate projections are used in precursor models to develop climate impacts on building heating and cooling degree-hours, water availability, and agricultural yields that are provided as inputs to GCAM-USA. GCAM-USA reproduces the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 GHG emissions trajectories consistent with each climate projection, using dynamic carbon prices to achieve RCP4.5. When the four climate projections are combined with the two SSP projections, the resulting eight scenarios allow GCAM-USA to explore how a wide, yet plausible, range of climate and socioeconomic impacts affects the interconnected energy, water, and land systems across the contiguous United States. Technical Details IM3 uses a version of GCAM-USA v5.3 that has an enhanced electricity sector and an updated data system needed to represent regional to local scale dynamics.

IM3↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling and Simulation of Xe-100-type Pebble Bed Gas-Cooled Reactor with SCALE

The US Department of Energy (DOE) announced the Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program (ARDP) to accelerate the deployment of advanced reactor concepts. Awardees of ARDP funds are expected to demonstrate the operation of an advanced reactor within 7 years of receiving the award. X-Energy’s advanced reactor concept, the Xe-100, was selected as one of two advanced reactor concepts to receive funding to demonstrate the operation of its high-temperature gas-cooled pebble-bed reactor before the end of this decade. As a result of this push to bring advanced reactors to maturation and commercialization, transition and deployment scenario studies are being performed under the Systems Analysis and Integration (SA&I) campaign within the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) to evaluate the transition of the current US commercial fleet of light-water reactors (LWRs) to a future fleet of advanced reactors consisting of a mix of ARDP type reactor concepts and advanced LWRs. To accurately evaluate the front- and back-end resource requirements, it is important to perform reactor physics calculations to determine the discharge burnup and isotopic content, fuel residence time, as well as other parameters. For this purpose, a summer project funded by the SA&I campaign allowed for the setup of SCALE models for full-core Xe-100 type high-temperature gas-cooled pebble-bed reactor and a Xe-100 type slice using publicly available information. The core-averaged equilibrium compositions and zone-wise equilibrium compositions for the slice and 3D models, respectively, were obtained following an iterative depletion method developed by Bostelmann et al. using SCALE’s reactor physics sequence TRITON. The slice model was used with TRITON to generate burnup-dependent cross section libraries at different temperatures which can be used with SCALE’s ORIGAMI code to rapidly determine fuel inventory and therefore to perform quick sensitivity studies on parameters such as the pebble location in the core. The SCALE/TRITON transport and depletion calculation for the Xe-100 type slice model indicates that the isotopic concentrations are in good agreement at 1,300 effective full power days (EFPD) for 235 U. An analysis of 236 U results match 239 Pu results would seem to indicate a typographical error in Mulder and Boyes wherein the reported results of 236 U and 239 Pu are reversed. In addition to SCALE/TRITON calculations, a new capability within SCALE/ORIGAMI for the simulation of pebble-bed reactors was used to study the burnup sensitivity with respect to the pebble pathway through the core. The SCALE/ORIGAMI results show that pebbles that travel closer to the reflector for the entire depletion history have a higher burnup than pebbles that travel through the middle of the core because of the higher thermal to fast flux ratio near the reflector. Consequently, a pebble’s burnup is strongly affected by the pebble’s pathway for each pass. Additional phenomena such as temperature distributions in the core and different travel times of the pebbles in the individual radial zones further affect the burnup distribution. The sensitivity of the discharge vector to the pebble pathways taken during each pass can be evaluated in the future using SCALE/ORIGAMI now that the SCALE inputs have been established.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Representing farmer irrigated crop area adaptation in a large-scale hydrological model

Abstract. Large-scale hydrological models (LHMs) are commonly used for regional and global assessment of future water shortage outcomes under climate and socioeconomic scenarios. The irrigation of croplands, which accounts for the lion's share of human water consumption, is critical in understanding these water shortage trajectories. Despite irrigation's defining role, LHM frameworks typically impose trajectories of land use that underlie irrigation demand, neglecting potential dynamic feedbacks in the form of human instigation of and subsequent adaptation to water shortages via irrigated crop area changes. We extend an LHM, MOSART-WM, with adaptive farmer agents, applying the model to the continental United States to explore water shortage outcomes that emerge from the interplay between hydrologic-driven surface water availability, reservoir management, and farmer irrigated crop area adaptation. The extended modeling framework is used to conduct a hypothetical computational experiment comparing differences between a model run with and without the incorporation of adaptive farmer agents. These comparative simulations reveal that accounting for farmer adaptation via irrigated crop area changes substantially alters modeled water shortage outcomes, with US-wide annual water shortages being reduced by as much as 42 % when comparing adaptive and non-adaptive versions of the model forced with US climatology from the period 1950–2009.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A life cycle assessment of e-hydrogen production using proton-exchange membrane water electrolysis coupled with desalination in Saudi Arabia

Hydrogen, considered a crucial element in the transition towards a sustainable energy future, offers the potential to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and reduce reliance on fossil fuels. Here, this study explores the viability of hydrogen production using proton exchange membrane water electrolysis (PEMWE) as a key driver of decarbonization within the Vision 2030 framework in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. A first-of-a-kind life cycle assessment (LCA) of electrolytic hydrogen (e-hydrogen) production using PEMWE in the Kingdom is performed. As the hydrogen will be produced in a freshwater scarce region, the inclusion of water desalination processes adds an important dimension to the assessment, reflecting the local context and resource availability. Two main renewable energy scenarios are assessed: solar energy through photovoltaics (PV) and wind energy through onshore turbines. The global warming potential (GWP) results indicate a GHG emissions reduction of up to 95 % compared to the state-of-the-art steam methane reforming process if the electrolysis process is powered exclusively by renewable electricity. The scenarios powered by solar and wind energy result in 3.66 and 0.76 kg CO 2 eq/kg H 2 , respectively. The metal depletion is assessed to consider the requirement of rare materials, with a 7.19 × 10 −2 kg Cu eq/kg H 2 for the solar scenario and 2.82 × 10 −2 kg Cu eq/kg H 2 for the wind scenario. A contribution analysis reveals that the majority of emissions in both scenarios originate from the electricity used for electrolysis, with the electrolyser itself contributing minimally. The absolute impact of the water desalination process is the same in both scenarios; however, it appears more prominent in the wind-powered case due to the significantly lower overall emissions in that scenario. The findings underscore the importance of renewable energy integration and process optimization in minimizing environmental impacts and advancing the sustainability of e-hydrogen production.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Leaf water potential, Feb2016-May2016, PA-SLZ, PA-PNM, PA-BCI: Panama

This data package contains leaf water potential data from the Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Parque Natural Metropolitano (PNM), and Bosque Protector San Lorenzo (SLZ) NGEE Tropics field sites in Panama. Pre-dawn and diurnal leaf water potential were measured on a monthly basis from February to May 2016 at SLZ and PNM. Data from BCI are only available for the month of March. This data was collected as part of the 2016 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) campaign. Included in the attached zip file are data and metadata folders. The single data file "2016ENSO_Panama_LWP" has been provided in both Excel and CSV formats for usability purposes. The metadata file "Metadata_description_2016_ENSO_Panama" provides protocols, site descriptions, equipment information, and more, and has been provided in .docx and PDF file formats. See related datasets (existing and future) for further sample details, leaf spectra, leaf mass area (LMA), gas exchange and leaf chemistry data. VERSION 2 update. The identification of a species from the PNM site has been corrected as follows: the identification of the tree initially identified as Pseudosamanea guachapele (ALBIED) has been revised to Albizia adinocephala (ALBIAD). The updated data package includes revised data, metadata and protocol documents updated to reflect this change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Prognostics and Health Management in Nuclear Power Plants: An Updated Method-Centric Review With Special Focus on Data-Driven Methods

In a carbon-constrained world, future uses of nuclear power technologies can contribute to climate change mitigation as the installed electricity generating capacity and range of applications could be much greater and more diverse than with the current plants. To preserve the nuclear industry competitiveness in the global energy market, prognostics and health management (PHM) of plant assets is expected to be important for supporting and sustaining improvements in the economics associated with operating nuclear power plants (NPPs) while maintaining their high availability. Of interest are long-term operation of the legacy fleet to 80 years through subsequent license renewals and economic operation of new builds of either light water reactors or advanced reactor designs. Recent advances in data-driven analysis methods—largely represented by those in artificial intelligence and machine learning—have enhanced applications ranging from robust anomaly detection to automated control and autonomous operation of complex systems. The NPP equipment PHM is one area where the application of these algorithmic advances can significantly improve the ability to perform asset management. This paper provides an updated method-centric review of the full PHM suite in NPPs focusing on data-driven methods and advances since the last major survey article was published in 2015. The main approaches and the state of practice are described, including those for the tasks of data acquisition, condition monitoring, diagnostics, prognostics, and planning and decision-making. Research advances in non-nuclear power applications are also included to assess findings that may be applicable to the nuclear industry, along with the opportunities and challenges when adapting these developments to NPPs. Finally, this paper identifies key research needs in regard to data availability and quality, verification and validation, and uncertainty quantification.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Consideration of Nonideal Detonation Regimes Influenced by Wave Modes in a Water-Cooled Rotating Detonation Engine Using OH* Chemiluminescence

Although inherently unstable, existing research in rotating detonation combustion supports its application in notionally steady processes resulting in greater availability compared to conventional, constant pressure combustion. Further improvements rely on a more in-depth understanding of system losses and identifying conditions which optimize device performance. Within this study, the presence and proportion of ideal and nonideal combustion regimes are compared across a variety of process conditions and wave modes. Here, large-scale data analysis seeks to summarize proportional heat release associated with commensal, parasitic, and detonative combustion averaged across individual traces of OH* chemiluminescent data acquired at the detonation plane. Means of regime partitioning based on the anatomy of the time-resolved OH* signal are proposed to ensure consistent analysis throughout the current and future studies concerning combustion regimes. Of particular interest is the possible influence of wave on the nonideal combustion in relative proportion to the desired detonation. Results showed improved percent detonation with increasing significance for the following trends: decreasing equivalence ratio, increasing wave count, decreasing wave velocity, and increasing detonation time. Increased wave number, brought on by decreased equivalence ratios and wave velocities, is thought to decrease fill region surface area, and therefore, decrease nonideal contact burning. Additional analysis is performed to consider possible trend variation due to the presence of stable galloping waves, which were found to have minimal influence on relative percent detonation values. The outcome of this study suggests operational states, which correspond to increased wave quantities for increased proportions of reactants consumed by the targeted detonative combustion regime.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Pellet Cladding Interaction In-Reactor Ramp Testing in a World without the Halden Boiling Water Reactor

One of the most crucial performance areas for fuel rods in water cooled nuclear power plants is interaction between cladding tubes and fuel pellets. Experimental programs in test reactors have provided key data to help fuel developers and plant operators understand Pellet Cladding Interaction (PCI) phenomena and optimize their strategies for reliable fuel performance. Approximately 50 years of “ramp” testing programs, where the fission heating rate is deliberately manipulated in test rods, have been performed in a handful of test reactors to reveal and understand PCI behaviors such as iodine-assisted stress corrosion cracking. Unfortunately, the test reactors most engaged in this type of work have all been retired over the years up to the recent and unexpected closure of the Halden Boiling Water Reactor which effectively caused a hiatus in PCI ramp testing programs. The need for ramp testing is crucial at this time to enable refined PCI understanding as more plants consider implementing flexible operations, increased fuel rod burnup limits, and new fuel technologies with enhanced accident tolerance. This paper reviews some of the key PCI phenomena that must be addressed with in-pile testing and surveys past test reactor’s methods for achieving the needed conditions. A strategic approach is then presented using test reactors and complimentary facilities which are still available today. Near term data opportunities are put forth along with capability development strategies that will ensure future longevity in this field of research.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Compounding Uncertainties in Economic and Population Growth Increase Tail Risks for Relevant Outcomes Across Sectors

Understanding the long-term effects of population and GDP changes requires a multisectoral and regional understanding of the coupled human-Earth system, as the long-term evolution of this coupled system is influenced by human decisions and the Earth system. This study investigates the impact of compounding economic and population growth uncertainties on long-term multisectoral outcomes. We use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to explore the influence of compounding and feedback between future GDP and population growth on four key sectors: final energy consumption, water withdrawal, staple food prices, and CO 2 emissions. The results show that uncertainties in GDP and population compound, resulting in a magnification of tail risks for outcomes across sectors and regions. Compounding uncertainties significantly impact metrics such as CO 2 emissions and final energy consumption, particularly at the upper tail at both global and regional levels. However, the impact of staple food prices and water withdrawal depends on regional factors. Additionally, an alternative low-carbon transition scenario could compound uncertainties and increase tail risk, particularly in staple food prices, highlighting the influence of emergent constraints on land availability and food-energy competition for land use. The findings underscore the importance of considering and adequately accounting for compounding uncertainties in key drivers of multisectoral systems to enhance our comprehensive understanding of the complex nature of multisectoral systems. The paper provides valuable insights into the potential implications of compounding uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Basic Energy Sciences Roundtable: Foundational Science to Accelerate Nuclear Energy Innovation

Energy security, availability, and reliability are among the greatest challenges facing the nation and the planet. An abundant potential source of energy resides in the fundamental atomic building blocks of the universe in the form of nuclear fission and fusion reactions. In fact, energy from nuclear fission currently provides the majority of the world’s zero-carbon electricity, and future fusion energy systems offer great promise; carbon-free nuclear energy technologies can be key to the world’s decarbonized energy future. Although contemporary fission systems use well-established technologies to supply safe and efficient baseload power, they could be more fuel efficient and less costly. Moving beyond massive light-water fission reactors to a variety of advanced nuclear systems—which will vary in size and operate in extremes of temperature, corrosivity, and other parameters—will place stringent conditions on materials and chemical systems. New demands will be placed on the coolants and solvents, the materials, and the monitoring tools used in these reactors. Fusion-based nuclear energy will require superior materials to withstand extremely high temperatures, plasma exposure, radiation damage, and implanted gases. The advantages associated with these new fission and fusion technologies will be realized only through continued advancements in the fundamental science underpinning our knowledge of the physics and chemistry of nuclear systems gained via improved experimental and computational methods. In July 2022, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Basic Energy Sciences—in coordination with the Offices of Nuclear Energy, Fusion Energy Sciences, and Advanced Scientific Computing Research—held a virtual roundtable titled “Foundational Science to Accelerate Nuclear Energy Innovation” to discuss the scientific and technical barriers for advanced nuclear energy systems. Five priority research opportunities were identified to address these scientific and technical challenges and to accelerate progress toward the realization of next-generation fusion and fission energy systems. The foundational science gaps inhibiting the advancement of nuclear energy technologies are identified and tackled in five priority research opportunities. These opportunities pave the way to accelerate the development and ultimately the adoption of new nuclear energy systems. They include the fundamental aspects of ion-electron interactions; novel properties of next-generation coolants and solvents; interfacial dynamics, not only in solids, but in other aspects of nuclear reactors; novel operando and in situ monitoring and sensing; and artificial intelligence to accelerate condensed phases discovery. Building on the foundation established by previous Basic Energy Sciences workshops, these opportunities encompass recent advances in fundamental knowledge and focus on the experimental and computational methods needed to resolve major technical challenges for nuclear energy technologies. Through developing fundamental scientific insight as well as pushing the frontiers of modeling complex systems and probing the operation of materials and chemical systems in extreme environments, research motivated by the priorities identified here will further develop the promise, potential, and utilization of nuclear energy for a clean energy future.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Global and regional hydrological impacts of global forest expansion

Abstract. Large-scale reforestation, afforestation, and forest restoration schemes have gained global support as climate change mitigation strategies due to their significant carbon dioxide removal (CDR) potential. However, there has been limited research into the unintended consequences of forestation from a biophysical perspective. In the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2), we apply a global forestation scenario, within a Paris Agreement-compatible warming scenario, to investigate the land surface and hydroclimate response. Compared to a control scenario where land use is fixed to present-day levels, the forestation scenario is up to 2 °C cooler at low latitudes by 2100, driven by a 10 % increase in evaporative cooling in forested areas. However, afforested areas where grassland or shrubland are replaced lead to a doubling of plant water demand in some tropical regions, causing significant decreases in soil moisture (∼ 5 % globally, 5 %–10 % regionally) and water availability (∼ 10 % globally, 10 %–15 % regionally) in regions with increased forest cover. While there are some increases in low cloud and seasonal precipitation over the expanded tropical forests, with enhanced negative cloud radiative forcing, the impacts on large-scale precipitation and atmospheric circulation are limited. This contrasts with the precipitation response to simulated large-scale deforestation found in previous studies. The forestation scenario demonstrates local cooling benefits without major disruption to global hydrodynamics beyond those already projected to result from climate change, in addition to the cooling associated with CDR. However, the water demands of extensive forestation, especially afforestation, have implications for its viability, given the uncertainty in future precipitation changes.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗