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NASA NTRS2022

Detailing Cloud Property Feedbacks with a Regime-Based Decomposition

Diagnosing the root causes of cloud feedback in climate models and reasons for inter-model disagreement is a necessary first step in understanding their wide variation in climate sensitivities. Here we bring together two analysis techniques that illuminate complementary aspects of cloud feedback. The first quantifies feedbacks from changes in cloud amount, altitude, and optical depth, while the second separates feedbacks due to cloud property changes within specific cloud regimes from those due to regime occurrence frequency changes. We find that in the global mean, shortwave cloud feedback averaged across ten models comes solely from a positive within-regime cloud amount feedback countered slightly by a negative within-regime optical depth feedback. These within-regime feedbacks are highly uniform: In nearly all regimes, locations, and models, cloud amount decreases and cloud albedo increases with warming. In contrast, global-mean across-regime components vary widely across models but are very small on average. This component, however, is dominant in setting the geographic structure of the shortwave cloud feedback: Thicker, more extensive cloud types increase at the expense of thinner, less extensive cloud types in the extratropics, and vice versa at low latitudes. The prominent negative extratropical optical depth feedback has contributions from both within- and across-regime components, suggesting that thermodynamic processes affecting cloud properties as well as dynamical processes that favor thicker cloud regimes are important. The feedback breakdown presented herein may provide additional targets for observational constraints by isolating cloud property feedbacks within specific regimes without the obfuscating effects of changing dynamics that may differ across timescales.

climate sensitivity↗

NASA NTRS1993

On the global dynamics of adaptive systems - A study of an elementary example

The inherent nonlinear character of adaptive systems poses serious theoretical problems for the analysis of their dynamics. On the other hand, the importance of their dynamic behavior is directly related to the practical interest in predicting such undesirable phenomena as nonlinear oscillations, abrupt transients, intermittence or a high sensitivity with respect to initial conditions. A geometrical/qualitative description of the phase portrait of a discrete-time adaptive system with unmodeled disturbances is given. For this, the motions in the phase space are referred to normally hyperbolic (structurally stable) locally invariant sets. The study is complemented with a local stability analysis of the equilibrium point and periodic solutions. The critical character of adaptive systems under rather usual working conditions is discussed. Special emphasis is put on the causes leading to intermittence. A geometric interpretation of the effects of some commonly used palliatives to this problem is given. The 'dead-zone' approach is studied in more detail. The predicted dynamics are compared with simulation results.

Espana, Martin D.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Effective Materials Property Information Management for the 21st Century

This paper discusses key principles for the development of materials property information management software systems. There are growing needs for automated materials information management in various organizations. In part these are fueled by the demands for higher efficiency in material testing, product design and engineering analysis. But equally important, organizations are being driven by the need for consistency, quality and traceability of data, as well as control of access to sensitive information such as proprietary data. Further, the use of increasingly sophisticated nonlinear, anisotropic and multi-scale engineering analyses requires both processing of large volumes of test data for development of constitutive models and complex materials data input for Computer-Aided Engineering (CAE) software. And finally, the globalization of economy often generates great needs for sharing a single "gold source" of materials information between members of global engineering teams in extended supply chains. Fortunately, material property management systems have kept pace with the growing user demands and evolved to versatile data management systems that can be customized to specific user needs. The more sophisticated of these provide facilities for: (i) data management functions such as access, version, and quality controls; (ii) a wide range of data import, export and analysis capabilities; (iii) data "pedigree" traceability mechanisms; (iv) data searching, reporting and viewing tools; and (v) access to the information via a wide range of interfaces. In this paper the important requirements for advanced material data management systems, future challenges and opportunities such as automated error checking, data quality characterization, identification of gaps in datasets, as well as functionalities and business models to fuel database growth and maintenance are discussed.

Ren, Weiju↗

DOE OSTI2024

Exploring rapidity-even dipolar flow in isobaric collisions at RHIC

Abstract Employing the AMPT transport model, we investigate the response of the rapidity-even dipolar flow ( v 1 even ) and its associated Global Momentum Conservation (GMC) parameterKto structural disparities within 96 Ru and 96 Zr nuclei. We analyze Ru + Ru and Zr + Zr collisions at a center-of-mass energy of s NN = 200 GeV. Our analysis demonstrates that the eccentricityε 1 , v 1 even andKexhibit subtle yet discernible sensitivity to the input nuclear structure distinctions between 96 Ru and 96 Zr isobars. This observation suggests that measuring v 1 even and the GMC parameter in these isobaric collisions could serve as a means to fine-tune the comprehension of their nuclear structure disparities and offer insights to enhance the initial condition assumptions of theoretical models.

Physics↗

NASA NTRS1990

Comparison of 30 day integrations with and without interactive clouds

A cloud radiation interaction parameterization package has recently been incorporated into a global spectral General Circulation Model (GCM) used for extended range prediction studies at GFDL. The elements of this package are summarized. Analysis of the time mean radiative and dynamical responses suggests that cloud radiation interaction has a favorable impact, overall, on systematic errors. The possible relevance of this sensitivity study to FIRE is mentioned.

Gordon, C. T.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Analyses of Scenarios for Past and Possible Future Aircraft Emissions

This project contains several components to work with the NASA AEAP program in better definition of scenarios for aircraft emissions and in determining the sensitivity of the atmosphere to such emissions. Under this project, Don Wuebbles continues as chair of the Operations and Emissions Scenarios Committee for AEAP. We are also coordinating with the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) to ensure the highest quality possible in the emissions scenarios promoted by the Emissions Scenarios committee. We continue to help coordination of NASA AEAP with international activities. This includes work with ICAO towards international analysis of aircraft emissions inventories; performing analyses to compare and evaluate databases of aircraft emissions developed for NASA and by various international groups and from these analyses, develop guidelines for future emissions scenarios development. Special sensitivity analyses, using our two-dimensional chemical-transport model of the global troposphere and stratosphere, have been used to determine potential sensitivity of further enhancements that could be made to emissions scenarios development. The latter studies are to be used in prioritizing further emissions scenario development.

Wuebbles, Donald J.↗

NASA NTRS2000

An Adaptive Buddy Check for Observational Quality Control

An adaptive buddy check algorithm is presented that adjusts tolerances for outlier observations based on the variability of surrounding data. The algorithm derives from a statistical hypothesis test combined with maximum-likelihood covariance estimation. Its stability is shown to depend on the initial identification of outliers by a simple background check. The adaptive feature ensures that the final quality control decisions are not very sensitive to prescribed statistics of first-guess and observation errors, nor on other approximations introduced into the algorithm. The implementation of the algorithm in a global atmospheric data assimilation is described. Its performance is contrasted with that of a non-adaptive buddy check, for the surface analysis of an extreme storm that took place in Europe on 27 December 1999. The adaptive algorithm allowed the inclusion of many important observations that differed greatly from the first guess and that would have been excluded on the basis of prescribed statistics. The analysis of the storm development was much improved as a result of these additional observations.

Dee, Dick P.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Rationalizing Burned Carbon with Carbon Monoxide Exported from South America

We present several estimates cross-checking the fluxes of carbon to the atmosphere from burning, comparing models that are based on simple land-surface parameterizations and atmospheric transport dynamics. Both estimates made by NASA Ames and USP modeling techniques are quite high compared to some detailed satellite/land-use studies of emissions. The flux of carbon liberated to the atmosphere via biomass burning is important for several reasons. This flux is a fundamental statistic for the parameterization of the large-scale flux of gases controlling the reactive greenhouse gases methane and ozone. Similarly, it is central to the estimation of the translocation of nitrogen and pyrodenitrification in the tropics. Thirdly, CO2 emitted from rainforest clearing contributes directly to carbon lost from the rainforest system as it contributes to greenhouse gas forcing. While CO2 from pasturage, agriculture, etc, is considered to be reabsorbed seasonally, and so "off budget" for the carbon cycle, it must also be accounted. CO2 anomalies related to daily weather and interannual climatic variation are strong enough to perturb our scientific perception of long-term carbon storage trends. We compare fluxes deduced from land-use statistics (originally, W.M. Hao) and from satellite hot pixels (A. Setzer) with atmospheric fluxes determined by the mesoscale/continental scale models RAMS and MM5, and point to some new work with highly resolved global models (the NASA Data Assimilation Office's GEOS4). Our simulations are tied to events, so that measured tracers like CO tie the models directly to the burning and meteorology of a specific period. We point out a particular sensitivity in estimates based on CO, and indicate how analysis of CO2 along with other biomass-burning tracers may lead to an improved multi-species estimator of carbon burned.

Chatfield, R.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Direct sensitivity analysis on the parameterization of crystal plasticity models

Various methods for calibrating crystal plasticity finite element (CPFE) models lead to non-unique input parameter values, which subsequently introduce uncertainty in the predicted mechanical response. Sensitivity analysis (SA) conducted on crystal plasticity models is used to identify how variability in these parameters contribute to output uncertainty. Traditional SA on CPFE parameters uses simplified surrogate models to save computational time. However, the accuracy of the surrogate models depends on the quantity of training data used, and any modeling error can propagate into the SA results, potentially affecting their reliability. In this work, the elementary effects test (EET) method, a global SA technique using direct CPFE simulations was employed, and the results obtained were compared with the First Order Second Moment (FOSM) method. ExaConstit, an open-source GPU-enabled CPFE code, was used to perform the simulations and direct SA. The EET method was accurately able to capture the non-linear effects of all the input parameters on the output and is a valuable approach for reliably attributing parameter sensitivities in CPFE models. Based on the results, efficient strategies to perform future parameter calibration and SA are discussed. Additionally, the SA trends observed in different single crystal orientations closely mirrored the activity of the slip systems.

Elementary Effects Test↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quantum-enhanced detection of viral cDNA via luminescence resonance energy transfer using upconversion and gold nanoparticles

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly impacted global economies and healthcare systems, revealing critical vulnerabilities in both. In response, our study introduces a sensitive and highly specific detection method for cDNA, leveraging Luminescence Resonance Energy Transfer (LRET) between upconversion nanoparticles (UCNPs) and gold nanoparticles (AuNPs), and achieves a detection limit of 242 fM for SARS-CoV-2 cDNA. This innovative sensing platform utilizes UCNPs conjugated with one primer and AuNPs with another, targeting the 5′ and 3′ ends of the SARS-CoV-2 cDNA, respectively, enabling precise differentiation of mismatched cDNA sequences and significantly improving detection specificity. Through rigorous experimental analysis, we established a quenching efficiency range from 10.4 % to 73.6 %, with an optimal midpoint of 42 %, thereby demonstrating the superior sensitivity of our method. Our work uses SARS-CoV-2 cDNA as a model system to demonstrate the potential of our LRET-based detection method. This proof-of-concept study highlights the adaptability of our platform for future diagnostic applications. Instrumental validation confirms the synthesis and formation of AuNPs, addressing the need for experimental verification of the preparation of nanomaterial. Our comparative analysis with existing SARS-CoV-2 detection methods revealed that our approach provides a low detection limit and high specificity for target cDNA sequences, underscoring its potential for targeted COVID-19 diagnostics. This study demonstrates the superior sensitivity and adaptability of using UCNPs and AuNPs for cDNA detection, offering significant advances in rapid, accessible diagnostic technologies. Our method, characterized by its low detection limit and high precision, represents a critical step forward in developing next-generation biosensors for managing current and future viral outbreaks. By adjusting primer sequences, this platform can be tailored to detect other pathogens, contributing to the enhancement of global healthcare responsiveness and infectious disease control.

Esmaeili, Shahriar [Institute for Quantum Science ↗

NASA NTRS2016

Measuring Global Water Security Towards Sustainable Development Goals

Water plays an important role in underpinning equitable, stable and productive societies and ecosystems. Hence, United Nations recognized ensuring water security as one (Goal 6) of the seventeen sustainable development goals (SDGs). Many international river basins are likely to experience 'low water security' over the coming decades. Water security is rooted not only in the physical availability of freshwater resources relative to water demand, but also on social and economic factors (e.g. sound water planning and management approaches, institutional capacity to provide water services, sustainable economic policies). Until recently, advanced tools and methods are available for the assessment of water scarcity. However, quantitative and integrated-physical and socio-economic-approaches for spatial analysis of water security at global level are not available yet. In this study, we present a spatial multi-criteria analysis framework to provide a global assessment of water security. The selected indicators are based on Goal 6 of SDGs. The term 'security' is conceptualized as a function of 'availability', 'accessibility to services', 'safety and quality', and 'management'. The proposed global water security index (GWSI) is calculated by aggregating indicator values on a pixel-by-pixel basis, using the ordered weighted average method, which allows for the exploration of the sensitivity of final maps to different attitudes of hypothetical policy makers. Our assessment suggests that countries of Africa, South Asia and Middle East experience very low water security. Other areas of high water scarcity, such as some parts of United States, Australia and Southern Europe, show better GWSI values, due to good performance of management, safety and quality, and accessibility. The GWSI maps show the areas of the world in which integrated strategies are needed to achieve water related targets of the SDGs particularly in the African and Asian continents.

sustainable-development goals↗

DOE OSTI2025

Constraining Black Carbon Aging in Global Models to Reflect Timescales for Internal Mixing

The radiative effects of black carbon depend critically on its atmospheric lifetime, which is controlled by the rate at which freshly emitted combustion particles become internally mixed with other aerosol components. Global aerosol models strive to represent this process, but the timescale for aerosol mixing is not easily constrained using observations. In this study, we apply a timescale parameterization derived from particle‐resolved simulations to quantify, in a global aerosol model, the timescale for internal mixing. We show that, while highly variable, the average timescale for internal mixing is approximately 3 hr, which is much shorter than the 24‐hr aging timescale traditionally applied in bulk aerosol models. We then use the mixing timescale to constrain the aging criterion in the Modal Aerosol Module. Our analysis reveals that, to best reflect timescales for internal mixing, modal models should assume that particles transition from the hydrophobic (fresh) to the hydrophilic (aged) class once they accumulate a coating thickness equal to four monolayers of sulfuric acid, as opposed to the model's current aging criterion of eight monolayers. We show that, in remote regions like the Arctic and Antarctic, predictions of black carbon loading and its seasonal variation are particularly sensitive to the model representation of aging. By constraining aging in global models to reflect mixing timescales simulated by the particle‐resolved model, we eliminate one of the free parameters governing black carbon's long‐range transport and spatiotemporal distribution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Coupled Climate Simulations With E3SM‐MMF

Simulations of the recent historical period from 1950 to 2014 are conducted with E3SM‐MMF, which uses an embedded 2D cloud resolving model that runs efficiently on GPUs in place of traditional parameterizations for cloud and turbulence. Analysis of the climate and variability reveal several aspects where E3SM‐MMF produces smaller biases compared to E3SMv2, including better agreement with the observed evolution of global mean surface temperature, although the representation of ENSO is too weak and fast. Three idealized abrupt CO 2 experiments were also conducted to assess climate sensitivity and feedbacks. These yield three estimates of effective climate sensitivity (4.38, 5.21, and 6.06 K), with a corresponding spread in the shortwave cloud feedbacks. These estimates are on the higher end of sensitivity estimates from CMIP ensembles, and the spread indicates substantial state‐dependent feedbacks. These results demonstrate how multiscale modeling framework (MMF) models can be used for climate relevant experiments and projections by leveraging modern GPU enabled computational platforms. The unique qualities of E3SM‐MMF shown in previous literature are largely still present, but various instances of reduced biases suggest that MMF models have utility in improving future projections.

E3SM↗

DOE OSTI2026

Combined dark matter search towards dwarf spheroidal galaxies with Fermi -LAT, HAWC, H.E.S.S., MAGIC, and VERITAS

Dwarf spheroidal galaxies (dSphs) are excellent targets for indirect dark matter (DM) searches using gamma-ray telescopes because they are thought to have high DM content and a low astrophysical background. The sensitivity of these searches is improved by combining the observations of dSphs made by different gamma-ray telescopes. We present the results of a combined search by the most sensitive currently operating gamma-ray telescopes, namely: the satellite-borne Fermi -LAT telescope; the ground-based imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescope arrays H.E.S.S., MAGIC, and VERITAS; and the HAWC water Cherenkov detector. Individual datasets were analyzed using a common statistical approach. Results were subsequently combined via a global joint likelihood analysis. We obtain constraints on the velocity-weighted cross section 〈σv〉 for DM self-annihilation as a function of the DM particle mass. This five-instrument combination allows the derivation of up to 2-3 times more constraining upper limits on 〈σv〉 than the individual results over a wide mass range spanning from 5 GeV to 100 TeV. Depending on the DM content modeling, the 95% confidence level observed limits reach 1.5×10 -24 cm 3 s -1 and 3.2×10 -25 cm 3 s -1 , respectively, in the τ + τ - annihilation channel for a DM mass of 2 TeV.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

VIC-Global Parameter Dataset Sensitivity with the Variable Infiltration Capacity Model: Evaluating the importance of dynamic land surface parameters when using the VIC-Global parameter dataset

Accurate prediction of runoff is essential to water resources management, flood risk assessment, and ecosystem protection. However, many hydrological models still have relatively substantial limitations when representing the influence of land use and land cover (LULC) on runoff generation and routing. Changes in LULC, such as deforestation, urban expansion, agricultural intensification, and wetland loss, have been shown to alter the water balance at the land surface through fundamental hydrologic processes (e.g., interception, infiltration, evapotranspiration, and soil storage). However, it remains an open question what the exact magnitude and timing of these impacts are for the spatial and temporal scales commonly used in engineering applications. In this analysis we focus on one aspect of recent LULC change for assessing human impacts, which is urbanization. Specifically we seek to determine the impacts of urbanization on the magnitude and timing of surface runoff and baseflow in HUC-12 basins in Clark County, Nevada which has experienced rapid urbanization. We use the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model with a widely used off-the-shelf dataset of land surface parameters, VIC-Global, both of which have been commonly used in the past for water and energy balance modeling for large scale hydrologic studies. We examine two scenarios where the first scenario removes all urbanized land cover and parameterizes those areas of the basins as barren or open shrubland. The second scenario tests the opposite case where all areas of the basins are classified as urban regardless of their present classification. The results from the VIC model show there is a low sensitivity for daily surface runoff between scenarios. The daily baseflow values indicate similar low sensitivity to the classification change during specific periods, but then have substantial differences during other period when large precipitation events are occurring. This is likely due to the assumed parameter values for the urban land cover classification made by the VIC-Global dataset. Using a static land cover parameterization is reasonable for large domain hydrology models that are being used for near-term planning horizons (<30 years). However, longer planning horizons where feedbacks between the atmosphere and land surface are important, especially in transient climate situations, considerations for how to update land surface parameters should be incorporated.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1983

Simulation and analysis of differential global positioning system for civil helicopter operations

A Differential Global Positioning System (DGPS) computer simulation was developed, to provide a versatile tool for assessing DGPS referenced civil helicopter navigation. The civil helicopter community will probably be an early user of the GPS capability because of the unique mission requirements which include offshore exploration and low altitude transport into remote areas not currently served by ground based Navaids. The Monte Carlo simulation provided a sufficiently high fidelity dynamic motion and propagation environment to enable accurate comparisons of alternative differential GPS implementations and navigation filter tradeoffs. The analyst has provided the capability to adjust most aspects of the system, the helicopter flight profile, the receiver Kalman filter, and the signal propagation environment to assess differential GPS performance and parameter sensitivities. Preliminary analysis was conducted to evaluate alternative implementations of the differential navigation algorithm in both the position and measurement domain. Results are presented to show that significant performance gains are achieved when compared with conventional GPS but that differences due to DGPS implementation techniques were small. System performance was relatively insensitive to the update rates of the error correction information.

Denaro, R. P.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Global and Regional Temperature-change Potentials for Near-term Climate Forcers

We examine the climate effects of the emissions of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) from 4 continental regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia) using results from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model simulations. We address 3 aerosol species (sulphate, particulate organic matter and black carbon) and 4 ozone precursors (methane, reactive nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds and carbon monoxide). We calculate the global climate metrics: global warming potentials (GWPs) and global temperature change potentials (GTPs). For the aerosols these metrics are simply time-dependent scalings of the equilibrium radiative forcings. The GTPs decrease more rapidly with time than the GWPs. The aerosol forcings and hence climate metrics have only a modest dependence on emission region. The metrics for ozone precursors include the effects on the methane lifetime. The impacts via methane are particularly important for the 20 yr GTPs. Emissions of NOx and VOCs from South Asia have GWPs and GTPs of higher magnitude than from the other Northern Hemisphere regions. The analysis is further extended by examining the temperature-change impacts in 4 latitude bands, and calculating absolute regional temperature-change potentials (ARTPs). The latitudinal pattern of the temperature response does not directly follow the pattern of the diagnosed radiative forcing. We find that temperatures in the Arctic latitudes appear to be particularly sensitive to BC emissions from South Asia. The northern mid-latitude temperature response to northern mid-latitude emissions is approximately twice as large as the global average response for aerosol emission, and about 20-30% larger than the global average for methane, VOC and CO emissions.

North America↗

DOE OSTI2024

Experimental design for the Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project – phase 2 (MISOMIP2)

The Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project – phase 2 (MISOMIP2) is a natural progression of previous and ongoing model intercomparison exercises that have focused on the simulation of ice-sheet and ocean processes in Antarctica. The previous exercises motivate the move towards realistic configurations, as well as more diverse model parameters and resolutions. The main objective of MISOMIP2 is to investigate the performance of existing ocean and coupled ice-sheet–ocean models in a range of Antarctic environments through comparisons to observational data. We will assess the status of ice-sheet–ocean modelling as a community and identify common characteristics of models that are best able to capture observed features. As models are highly tuned based on present-day data, we will also compare their sensitivity to prescribed abrupt atmospheric perturbations leading to either very warm or slightly warmer ocean conditions compared to the present day. The approach of MISOMIP2 is to welcome contributions of models as they are, including global and regional configurations, but we request standardized variables and common grids for the outputs. We target the analysis at two specific regions, the Amundsen Sea and the Weddell Sea, since they describe two different ocean environments and have been relatively well observed compared to other areas of Antarctica. An observational “MIPkit” synthesizing existing ocean and ice-sheet observations for a common period is provided to evaluate ocean and ice-sheet models in these two regions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗