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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1993

Development of deterministic transport methods for low energy neutrons for shielding in space

Transport of low energy neutrons associated with the galactic cosmic ray cascade is analyzed in this dissertation. A benchmark quality analytical algorithm is demonstrated for use with BRYNTRN, a computer program written by the High Energy Physics Division of NASA Langley Research Center, which is used to design and analyze shielding against the radiation created by the cascade. BRYNTRN uses numerical methods to solve the integral transport equations for baryons with the straight-ahead approximation, and numerical and empirical methods to generate the interaction probabilities. The straight-ahead approximation is adequate for charged particles, but not for neutrons. As NASA Langley improves BRYNTRN to include low energy neutrons, a benchmark quality solution is needed for comparison. The neutron transport algorithm demonstrated in this dissertation uses the closed-form Green's function solution to the galactic cosmic ray cascade transport equations to generate a source of neutrons. A basis function expansion for finite heterogeneous and semi-infinite homogeneous slabs with multiple energy groups and isotropic scattering is used to generate neutron fluxes resulting from the cascade. This method, called the FN method, is used to solve the neutral particle linear Boltzmann transport equation. As a demonstration of the algorithm coded in the programs MGSLAB and MGSEMI, neutron and ion fluxes are shown for a beam of fluorine ions at 1000 MeV per nucleon incident on semi-infinite and finite aluminum slabs. Also, to demonstrate that the shielding effectiveness against the radiation from the galactic cosmic ray cascade is not directly proportional to shield thickness, a graph of transmitted total neutron scalar flux versus slab thickness is shown. A simple model based on the nuclear liquid drop assumption is used to generate cross sections for the galactic cosmic ray cascade. The ENDF/B V database is used to generate the total and scattering cross sections for neutrons in aluminum. As an external verification, the results from MGSLAB and MGSEMI were compared to ANISN/PC, a routinely used neutron transport code, showing excellent agreement. In an application to an aluminum shield, the FN method seems to generate reasonable results.

Ganapol, Barry↗
DOE OSTI2025

..delta..-Learning of High-Fidelity Electronic Structure Using Graph Neural Networks with Modified Node-Level Features

In this work, we present a ..delta..-learning approach for predicting the eigenvalues calculated with the hybrid functional HSE06 (..epsilon..nkHSE) for a set of metal and nitrogen doped graphene catalysts (MNCs) from Perdew-Burke-Ernzerhof (PBE) inputs. The model presented here incorporates electronic scalar features along with structural information in a graph neural network (GNN). In particular, the PBE eigenvalues for different bands and k-points and orbital-resolved projectors are combined with the applied potential as node-level features along with structural information within the Atomistic Line Graph Neural Network (ALIGNN) architecture. These features enable flexibility for systems with electrified interfaces, such as in electrocatalysts and achieves mean absolute error (MAE) of less than 0.1 eV. The machine learning model reported here achieves a strong generalization to left-out adsorbates (MAE = 0.074 eV) and leave-one-chemical-space-out (MAE = 0.08 eV) and completely left-out metals (MAE = 0.072 eV), confirming the robustness of the machine learning (ML) model in predicting ..epsilon..nkHSE.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Geometry-complete diffusion for 3D molecule generation and optimization

Abstract Generative deep learning methods have recently been proposed for generating 3D molecules using equivariant graph neural networks (GNNs) within a denoising diffusion framework. However, such methods are unable to learn important geometric properties of 3D molecules, as they adopt molecule-agnostic and non-geometric GNNs as their 3D graph denoising networks, which notably hinders their ability to generate valid large 3D molecules. In this work, we address these gaps by introducing the Geometry-Complete Diffusion Model (GCDM) for 3D molecule generation, which outperforms existing 3D molecular diffusion models by significant margins across conditional and unconditional settings for the QM9 dataset and the larger GEOM-Drugs dataset, respectively. Importantly, we demonstrate that GCDM’s generative denoising process enables the model to generate a significant proportion of valid and energetically-stable large molecules at the scale of GEOM-Drugs, whereas previous methods fail to do so with the features they learn. Additionally, we show that extensions of GCDM can not only effectively design 3D molecules for specific protein pockets but can be repurposed to consistently optimize the geometry and chemical composition of existing 3D molecules for molecular stability and property specificity, demonstrating new versatility of molecular diffusion models. Code and data are freely available on GitHub .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Energy-Screened Many-Body Expansion for Protein–Ligand Interactions: Examining Convergence for Metalloenzymes Through Seven–Body Interactions

Fragment-based quantum chemistry is a powerful strategy for calculating protein−ligand interaction energies using quantum chemistry methods. Rigorous convergence often requires hundreds of atoms in the protein binding-site model, especially if that model is constructed using distance-based criteria to select amino acid residues, while three- and four-body calculations exhibit instability related to combinatorial proliferation in the number of subsystem calculations. Here, we report an energy-based screening protocol for the many-body expansion applied to protein−ligand interactions, implemented in the open-source FRAGME∩T code. Using a combination of aggressive screening based on semiempirical quantum chemistry, with an improved graph-theoretical algorithm to eliminate unimportant subsystems, we are able to perform n-body calculations up to n = 7 using density functional theory in triple-ζ basis sets. Distance cutoffs further reduce the cost without compromising accuracy. Rapid and stable convergence of the many-body expansion is obtained by n = 4, for a pair of metalloenzymes in which a divalent ion coordinates directly to the ligand. As compared to previous results that relied solely on distance cutoffs, oscillations in the n-body corrections are reduced or eliminated, although residual errors remain in one case. This work demonstrates that benchmark-quality protein−ligand interaction energies can be systematically converged using a method with excellent parallel efficiency and scalability.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

A quantitative comparison of the fingerprint of twinned microstructures through surface and three-dimensional techniques

Assessing the fingerprint of a material’s microstructure is key for supporting materials design. With the emergence of a wide range of 3D characterization techniques, it is critical to understand the main differences in fingerprints reconstructed from 2D and 3D datasets. To this end, we introduce a graph-based microstructure reconstruction framework that enables structural comparisons of twin domain networks in high purity Ti using 3D and 2D electron backscatter diffraction. Insights into the structure of the twin networks are facilitated by combining statistical analysis of twin crystallography with visual and graphical analysis of the novel graph abstractions of the twins. We demonstrate that compared to 3D reconstructions, conventional 2D views of twinning miss key aspects of the microstructure including the high interconnectivity of domains into networks that span the full reconstruction volume. The reduced cross-grain and in-grain twin connectivity typically observed in 2D has notable implications on our understanding of how twinning mediates the plastic response of microstructures and how twin networks evolve. It is thus clear that 3D characterization is critical for accurately inferring both twin network morphologies as well as the key unit processes facilitating network formation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty quantification for molecular property predictions with graph neural architecture search

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have emerged as a prominent class of data-driven methods for molecular property prediction. However, a key limitation of typical GNN models is their inability to quantify uncertainties in the predictions. This capability is crucial for ensuring the trustworthy use and deployment of models in downstream tasks. To that end, we introduce AutoGNNUQ, an automated uncertainty quantification (UQ) approach for molecular property prediction. AutoGNNUQ leverages architecture search to generate an ensemble of high-performing GNNs, enabling the estimation of predictive uncertainties. Our approach employs variance decomposition to separate data (aleatoric) and model (epistemic) uncertainties, providing valuable insights for reducing them. In our computational experiments, we demonstrate that AutoGNNUQ outperforms existing UQ methods in terms of both prediction accuracy and UQ performance on multiple benchmark datasets, and generalizes well to out-of-distribution datasets. Additionally, we utilize t-SNE visualization to explore correlations between molecular features and uncertainty, offering insight for dataset improvement. AutoGNNUQ has broad applicability in domains such as drug discovery and materials science, where accurate uncertainty quantification is crucial for decision-making.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

ACES-GNN: can graph neural network learn to explain activity cliffs?

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have revolutionized molecular property prediction by leveraging graph-based representations, yet their opaque decision-making processes hinder broader adoption in drug discovery. This study introduces the Activity-Cliff-Explanation-Supervised GNN (ACES-GNN) framework, designed to simultaneously improve predictive accuracy and interpretability by integrating explanation supervision for activity cliffs (ACs) into GNN training. ACs, defined by structurally similar molecules with significant potency differences, pose challenges for traditional models due to their reliance on shared structural features. By aligning model attributions with chemist-friendly interpretations, the ACES-GNN framework bridges the gap between prediction and explanation. Validated across 30 pharmacological targets, ACES-GNN consistently enhances both predictive accuracy and attribution quality for ACs compared to unsupervised GNNs. Our results demonstrate a positive correlation between improved predictions and accurate explanations, offering a robust and adaptable framework to better understand and interpret ACs. This work underscores the potential of explanation-guided learning to advance interpretable artificial intelligence in molecular modeling and drug discovery.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

HEPOM: Using Graph Neural Networks for the Accelerated Predictions of Hydrolysis Free Energies in Different pH Conditions

Hydrolysis is a fundamental family of chemical reactions where water facilitates the cleavage of bonds. The process is ubiquitous in biological and chemical systems, owing to water’s remarkable versatility as a solvent. However, accurately predicting the feasibility of hydrolysis through computational techniques is a difficult task, as subtle changes in reactant structure like heteroatom substitutions or neighboring functional groups can influence the reaction outcome. Furthermore, hydrolysis is sensitive to the pH of the aqueous medium, and the same reaction can have different reaction properties at different pH conditions. In this work, we have combined reaction templates and high-throughput ab initio calculations to construct a diverse data set of hydrolysis free energies. The developed framework automatically identifies reaction centers, generates hydrolysis products, and utilizes a trained graph neural network (GNN) model to predict ΔG values for all potential hydrolysis reactions in a given molecule. The long-term goal of the work is to develop a data-driven, computational tool for high-throughput screening of pH-specific hydrolytic stability and the rapid prediction of reaction products, which can then be applied in a wide array of applications including chemical recycling of polymers and ion-conducting membranes for clean energy generation and storage.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Analysis of Bis(trifluoromethylsulfonyl)imide Interactions with Metal Cations Through a Chemical Informatics Approach

Nominally weakly coordinating anions are useful for modulating the solubility and chemical properties of metal complexes, but identification and analysis of the systematics of the interactions of anions with cationic metal complexes has not received the attention it deserves. Here, a chemical informatics approach is demonstrated for identifying and quantitatively analyzing the ways that the bis(trifluoromethylsulfonyl)imide anion (TFSI) can interact with metal-containing species. An open access computer program (PyCIFTer) was developed to facilitate large-scale structural analysis of TFSI-containing species by utilization of experimental atomic coordinate data from single-crystal X-ray diffraction (XRD) studies obtained from the Cambridge Structural Database (CSD). PyCIFTer establishes a three-dimensional vector space from the raw atomic coordinates, generating acyclic, undirected graphs that are used to rapidly analyze the structural properties (bond lengths and angles) of TFSI in individual structures in sequential/batch fashion. The structures are sorted by PyCIFTer into groups based on pre-set and chemically sensible criteria, affording a comprehensive and systematic view of TFSI structural chemistry. This approach avoids tedious one-at-a-time interrogation of structures, a prospect unreasonable in this case, and many others of contemporary chemical relevance; there were over 1500 structures in the CSD containing TFSI as of November 2024. The results demonstrate that TFSI only rarely binds to cations in the solid state, favoring the formation of species in which TFSI is found in cations’ outer coordination spheres. The prospect of applying PyCIFTer to other moieties is also discussed. PyCIFTer is also schematically compared to the commercial CSD Python application programming interface (API). Taken together, this work demonstrates the usefulness of modular workflows for sequential/batch analysis of structural data from XRD, an approach that appears poised to accelerate the translation of legacy structural results into new chemical insights and hypotheses.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

ON-OFF neuromorphic ISING machines using Fowler-Nordheim annealers

We introduce NeuroSA, a neuromorphic architecture specifically designed to ensure asymptotic convergence to the ground state of an Ising problem using a Fowler-Nordheim quantum mechanical tunneling based threshold-annealing process. The core component of NeuroSA consists of a pair of asynchronous ON-OFF neurons, which effectively map classical simulated annealing dynamics onto a network of integrate-and-fire neurons. The threshold of each ON-OFF neuron pair is adaptively adjusted by an FN annealer and the resulting spiking dynamics replicates the optimal escape mechanism and convergence of SA, particularly at low-temperatures. To validate the effectiveness of our neuromorphic Ising machine, we systematically solved benchmark combinatorial optimization problems such as MAX-CUT and Max Independent Set. Across multiple runs, NeuroSA consistently generates distribution of solutions that are concentrated around the state-of-the-art results (within 99%) or surpass the current state-of-the-art solutions for Max Independent Set benchmarks. Furthermore, NeuroSA is able to achieve these superior distributions without any graph-specific hyperparameter tuning. For practical illustration, we present results from an implementation of NeuroSA on the SpiNNaker2 platform, highlighting the feasibility of mapping our proposed architecture onto a standard neuromorphic accelerator platform.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2013

Issues and Strategies in Solving Multidisciplinary Optimization Problems

Optimization research at NASA Glenn Research Center has addressed the design of structures, aircraft and airbreathing propulsion engines. The accumulated multidisciplinary design activity is collected under a testbed entitled COMETBOARDS. Several issues were encountered during the solution of the problems. Four issues and the strategies adapted for their resolution are discussed. This is followed by a discussion on analytical methods that is limited to structural design application. An optimization process can lead to an inefficient local solution. This deficiency was encountered during design of an engine component. The limitation was overcome through an augmentation of animation into optimization. Optimum solutions obtained were infeasible for aircraft and airbreathing propulsion engine problems. Alleviation of this deficiency required a cascading of multiple algorithms. Profile optimization of a beam produced an irregular shape. Engineering intuition restored the regular shape for the beam. The solution obtained for a cylindrical shell by a subproblem strategy converged to a design that can be difficult to manufacture. Resolution of this issue remains a challenge. The issues and resolutions are illustrated through a set of problems: Design of an engine component, Synthesis of a subsonic aircraft, Operation optimization of a supersonic engine, Design of a wave-rotor-topping device, Profile optimization of a cantilever beam, and Design of a cylindrical shell. This chapter provides a cursory account of the issues. Cited references provide detailed discussion on the topics. Design of a structure can also be generated by traditional method and the stochastic design concept. Merits and limitations of the three methods (traditional method, optimization method and stochastic concept) are illustrated. In the traditional method, the constraints are manipulated to obtain the design and weight is back calculated. In design optimization, the weight of a structure becomes the merit function with constraints imposed on failure modes and an optimization algorithm is used to generate the solution. Stochastic design concept accounts for uncertainties in loads, material properties, and other parameters and solution is obtained by solving a design optimization problem for a specified reliability. Acceptable solutions can be produced by all the three methods. The variation in the weight calculated by the methods was found to be modest. Some variation was noticed in designs calculated by the methods. The variation may be attributed to structural indeterminacy. It is prudent to develop design by all three methods prior to its fabrication. The traditional design method can be improved when the simplified sensitivities of the behavior constraint is used. Such sensitivity can reduce design calculations and may have a potential to unify the traditional and optimization methods. Weight versus reliability traced out an inverted-S-shaped graph. The center of the graph corresponded to mean valued design. A heavy design with weight approaching infinity could be produced for a near-zero rate of failure. Weight can be reduced to a small value for a most failure-prone design. Probabilistic modeling of load and material properties remained a challenge.

Patnaik, Surya↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine-Learning-Driven Discovery of Water Splitting BaFe 2 O 4 and Human-in-the-Loop Improvement via Al-Substitution for Increased Thermal Stability

Thermochemical hydrogen (TCH) production offers a promising method for converting thermal energy into hydrogen fuel through heat-driven redox cycles of metal oxides. Here, in this work a defect graph neural network (dGNN) was used to predict oxygen vacancy formation energies ΔH V O combined with Materials Project predictions of oxygen chemical potential stability to screen candidate oxides via high-throughput database analysis. BaFe 2 O 4 was identified as a promising material for experimental validation based on its predicted ΔH V O , oxygen chemical potential stability range, and potential for tunable substitutions to improve thermal properties. Experimental validation using thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), stagnation flow reactor (SFR), X-ray diffraction (XRD), and electron microscopy confirmed positive water-splitting behavior but also revealed limitations in thermal stability under aggressive reduction conditions. To address this, a human-in-the-loop modification strategy was employed introducing Al substitution in BaFe 2–x Al x O 4 ; this modification improves thermal stability, alters the crystal structure and enhances overall performance. These results demonstrate a combined computational and experimental workflow in which machine learning accelerates identification of promising candidates, while targeted experimental design enables optimization of functional performance. This approach advances the development of robust, cost-effective TCH materials and highlights the importance of integrating data-driven discovery with human-guided materials design in paving the way for scalable hydrogen production technologies.

organic↗
DOE OSTI2025

Large-scale experimental validation of thermochemical water-splitting oxides discovered by defect graph neural networks

Thermochemical water-splitting (TCH) based on 2-step thermal redox cycles in metal oxides is a promising approach to generating H 2 , but state-of-the-art (SOTA) CeO 2 has several practical limitations, which has motivated continued materials discovery efforts in this field. Here, in this study, we improve upon a SOTA defect graph neural network (dGNN) surrogate model's oxygen vacancy predictions and combine them with materials project phase diagrams to down-select and discover structurally diverse, experimentally known metal oxides whose TCH performance was previously unknown. Amongst twelve candidates selected based on our high-throughput screening and down-selection criteria, we achieved ∼80% accuracy in identifying materials with stable redox cycling and hydrogen production in stagnation flow reactor water-splitting experiments. Closer to 100% accuracy can be achieved if higher-accuracy, hybrid DFT-predicted vacancy formation energies were computed and used in lieu of the most uncertain dGNN-based screening predictions, as they correct false positives to true negatives. Notably, two discovered candidates, Sr 3 PrMn 2 O 8 and Ba 2 Fe 2 O 5 , display hydrogen yields greater than CeO 2 under specific redox conditions. In conclusion, these results demonstrate our ability to computationally predict and experimentally validate promising candidate TCH materials that have the potential to compete with CeO 2 .

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

HydraGNN_Predictive_GFM_2024 - Ensemble of predictive graph foundation models for ground state atomistic materials modeling

We provide the ensemble of fifteen pre-trained graph foundation models (GFMs) for atomistic materials modeling applications. Each one of the fifteen GFMs has been trained on five open-source datasets that (once aggregated) amount to over 154 million atomistic structures, which cover over two-thirds of the natural elements of the periodic table and that comprises a broad set of organic and inorganic compounds. This vast set of atomistic structures comprises ground state configurations that are dynamically stable (i.e., equilibrated structures with atomic forces approximately close to zero values) as well as dynamically unstable structures (i.e., non-equilibrium structures with non-negligible non-zero values of atomic forces). The ensemble of datasets aggregated does NOT include excited states. The datasets have been curated to remove atomistic structures with spectral norm of the force tensor above 100 eV/angstrom. Moreover, a linear term of the energy was computed for each dataset using a linear regression model that uses the chemical concentration of each natural element as regressor. The linear term predicted by the linear regression model has been subtracted from each original energy value to perform a re-alignment of the energy values across different electronic structures approximation theories performed to generate the diverse multi-source, multi-fidelity datasets. The folder "ADIOS_files" contains the set of pre-processed datasets in Adaptable I/O System (ADIOS) format (https://www.exascaleproject.org/research-project/adios/) that have been used for the development and training of GFMs in this work. The "ADIOS_files" directory contains 6 sub-directories named as follows: - ANI1x-v3.bp - MPTrj-v3.bp - OC2020-20M-v3.bp - OC2020-v3.bp - OC2022-v3.bp - qm7x-v3.bp Each sub-directory contains the pre-processed datasets converted in Adaptable I/O System (ADIOS) format (https://www.exascaleproject.org/research-project/adios/) that have been used to the development, training, and performance testing of the ensemble go predictive graph foundation models. Each GFM was developed using HydraGNN (https://github.com/ORNL/HydraGNN) as underlying graph neural network (GNN) architecture. The multi-task learning (MTL) capability of HydraGNN was used to simultaneously train the GFMs on labeled values for direct predictions of energy (a total system property of an atomistic structure that measures the chemical stability) and atomic forces (an atomic level property of an atomistic structure that measures the dynamical stability). The hyper parameters of the GFM have been tuned using scalable hyperparameter optimization (HPO) algorithms implemented in the software DeepHyper (https://github.com/deephyper/deephyper). The pre-training of each HPO trial was performed using distributed data parallelism (DDP) to scale the training across 128 compute nodes of the exascale OLCF supercomputer Frontier. Each HPO trial was trained only for 10 epochs and an early stopping was performed to avoid wasting significant computational resources on GNN architectures that were clearly underperforming. For each HPO trial, the 'omnistat' tool developed by (AMD Research - Advanced Micro Device) was used to measure the total energy consumption in kWh. The ensemble of GFMs was obtained by selecting the fifteen best performing HPO trials. Four models have been selected for their clear advantage in accuracy, and these are the GFMs with IDs 229, 156, 147, 260. Additional eleven models have been selected based on judicious balance between accuracy and energy consumption needed for training, and these are the GFMs with IDs 165, 78, 137, 1, 175, 171, 181, 67, 179, 167, 351. Each selected GFM of the ensemble was continued to cumulate a total of at most 30 epochs. In some cases, the total number of epochs actually performed was les than 30 due to two combined factors: (1) the size of the GFM (i.e., the number of model parameters to train) and (2) the total wall-clock time for which the computational resources could be allocated on OLCF-Frontier. The "Ensemble_of_models" directory contains 15 sub-directories named as follows: - gfm_0.229 - gfm_0.156 - gfm_0.147 - gfm_0.260 - gfm_0.165 - gfm_0.78 - gfm_0.137 - gfm_0.1 - gfm_0.175 - gfm_0.171 - gfm_0.181 - gfm_0.67 - gfm_0.179 - gfm_0.167 - gfm_0.351 Each one of these sub-directories refers to one of the fifteen HPO trials that have been selected to continue the pre-training with at most 30 epochs. With each sub-directory associated with a specific HPO trial, the following files can be found: - config.json: file for argument parsing to develop and train an HydraGNN architecture - gfm_0.ID_epoch_N.pk: file with model parameters for HPO ID trial after N epochs of training The ensemble of fifteen GFM architectures was used for (1) ensemble averaging to stabilize the predictions of energy and atomic forces after pre-training for post-processing analysis and (2) ensemble uncertainty quantification (UQ). The code used to develop, pre-train, and load the pre-trained models for post-processing analysis is available on the ORNL-GitHub at the following link: https://github.com/ORNL/HydraGNN/tree/Predictive_GFM_2024

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Machine Learning Approach to Improve Air Traffic Management Initiatives

Collaborating closely with commercial air carriers and related organizations, the Federal Aviation Administration(FAA) regulates air traffic and ensures the safety and efficiency of air operations. Air traffic controllers make strategic decisions, such as delaying, rerouting, or canceling flights, partly based on guidance provided by the FAA’s Air TrafficControl System Command Center (ATCSCC). The guidance includes, among other things, control measures known asTraffic Management Initiatives (TMIs) designed to enhance safety and improve operational efficiency. TMIs play a crucial role in managing the demand and capacity within the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS). Two major TMIs that are routinely used (primarily to mitigate the adverse effects of bad weather) are Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) andGround Stops (GSs). In a GDP, flights destined for airports facing thunderstorm activity experience delays at their origin airports. This proactive approach minimizes the risk of routing aircraft through hazardous weather conditions and also replaces (fuel burning) airborne delays with ground delays. In a GS, a temporary restriction is imposed on the departure or arrival of aircraft at a specific airport or within a designated airspace. Although other TMIs (e.g., miles-in-trail) are also implemented as part of (air) traffic flow management in the NAS, the focus of this work is on GDPs and GSs. Since TMIs, by design, lead to flight delays or cancellations, it is crucial to put in place the right set of parameters(e.g., scope and duration of the GDP). For example, when the end time of a GDP extends beyond what is necessary, it imposes unnecessary delays on departing flights. This situation could occur as a result of inaccurate prediction of the(required) duration of the GDP based on the weather forecast. On the other hand, if a GDP ends prematurely before the underlying capacity constraints are resolved at the destination airport, it may result in airborne holding. The delicate balance lies in matching the termination of the GDP precisely with the resolution of capacity constraints, avoiding both the imposition of unnecessary ground delays and the need for airborne holding due to premature program termination.Failing to specify the right parameters for TMIs also leads to flight delays, creating a significant obstacle in managing the increasing traffic volumes causing increased work load for the controllers. To address this issue, we propose the integration of Machine Learning (ML) models in the traffic flow management(TFM) pipeline. In current operations, decisions are made by human experts based on extensive training, historical patterns, available traffic and weather data. Since we have an abundance of data from past events that tell us the likely impact of various TMIs, by ingesting historical data, properly trained ML models can offer valuable insights and aid human decision-making. With the FAA increasingly exploring advanced analytics, ML emerges as a focal point for enhancing TFM within the National Airspace System (NAS). As a first step, this study aims to provide traffic controllers with decision-making support for the issuance and adjustment of TMIs. Data analytics and machine learning have been previously employed to address some of the challenges associated with TMIs. Numerous studies have concentrated on various facets of TMI issuance, exploring factors influencing TMI parameters, including arrival rate, airport capacity, and delay prediction. For example, using weather forecasts, several statistical methods were used to produce probabilistic capacity profiles which in conjunction with deterministic models provided insights into the GDP planning process [1–4]. The downside of using deterministic models is that they rely on fixed inputs and predetermined rules, which lack the ability to account for the inherent uncertainty and variability present in real-world scenarios. In a separate series of studies, researchers aimed to predict the occurrences of GDPs and GSs. The majority of these studies utilized various supervised learning methods, including Decision Trees, Naive Bayes, Support VectorMachines, and Random Forests to analyze the influence of weather conditions and arrival demand on TMI incidents[5–8]. However, these studies primarily focused on predicting the incidence of TMIs without explicitly addressing the scope of TMIs, including their duration and their geographical coverage. Furthermore, the emphasis of these studies was largely on GDPs, given their higher frequency and longer duration when compared to GSs. A limited number of studies focused on predicting the parameters of TMIs, specifically addressing their duration and extent. In one such study focusing on optimizing the TMI parameters at San Francisco International Airport (SFO),the authors utilized a probabilistic forecast of fog [9]. They simulated various capacity scenarios based on the (fog)burn-off forecasts, selecting GDP parameters that minimized airborne and overall ground delays. However, this approach exclusively emphasizes stratus (fog) burn-off as the primary determinant of GDP and GS, neglecting other influential factors like severe weather events, runway closures, lower capacity than traffic demand, and other important variables. Given the complexity of predicting the TMI and determining its scope, we seek a more holistic approach. We aim to consider all significant factors that could impact TMIs and their parameters. What sets this research apart is the fusion of all data sources relevant to the issuance and adjustment of TMIs and it represents the first comprehensive attempt to optimize TMIs in this manner. Since this comprehensive solution involves various aspects, we break down the problem into smaller components and input all parameters into a unified model called the “TMI Adjuster”. Figure 1 shows the overall framework and the list of datasets used in each model. The objective of the TMI Adjuster module is to deliver reliable, consistent and expedited recommendations for the progression, adjustment, and termination of TMIs. The ML solution entails developing a pipeline capable of predicting the necessity of a TMI (e.g., GS or GDP) along with its various parameters. For example, in the case of a GS, this includes the scope of the GS either in terms of distance from the destination airport or based on pre-defined airspace sectors. Here, scope refers to those regions and departing airports that are subject to the GS. In this paper, we concentrate on the issuance of GSs in the three major airports in the New York area — LaGuardia(LGA), John F. Kennedy International (JFK), and Newark Liberty International (EWR). We fuse traffic, weather and other relevant aviation data from years 2017 to 2019 to train and validate the ML models. In particular, we use the following datasets: •Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF): meteorological forecasts specific to each airport, issued four times a day, covering predefined time periods. •TMI data: includes all GSs and GDPs along with their respective parameters. •Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM): includes traffic related data such as aircraft delays, arrival, and departure rates. •Notices to Airmen (NOTAMs): utilized to extract runway closure data and manage interdependencies between terminals in close proximity. •Flight cancellation data •Airspace Flow Programs (AFP): includes information on flight airborne holdings caused by TMIs. The data preprocessing entails transforming ASPM, TMI, AFP, NOTAMs, and weather data into an hourly format and consolidating all datasets by merging them based on date and time as the primary key. The TMI Adjuster framework comprises two parallel models: one dedicated to GS and a second model focused on GDP. As previously mentioned, our specific focus is on the GS model as a multi-classification problem. In this framework, each data point of the GS model input summarizes ten hours of data. Specifically, the data loader for the GS model generates the input and output of the model as follows: at a given time step, the input includes the actual traffic, weather, and TMI data from the two-hour window before the time step, alongside the weather forecast and scheduled traffic for the next 8 hours starting from the time step. Based on this information, the output of the GS model for each time interval consists of three dimensions. The first dimension represents a binary decision on whether there should be a GS in place for the next hour or not. The second dimension is related to the scope of the GS in the United States, and the third dimension is related to the scope of the GS in Canada (i.e., to determine if the GS impacts airports in Canada).One of the challenges with TMI modeling is the sparsity of TMI events, particularly regarding its scope. To address this challenge in the scope of the GS model output, we implement grouping. The GS scope for the US region is defined based on a list of centers that should be included when the GS is in place. With 20 centers in the US, we utilized historical data to group them into 4 categories. In particular, we summarized our historical data in a graph format where nodes represent centers, and link weights are defined based on the co-occurrence of centers in the scope parameter ofTMIs. By identified strongly connected components in this graph, we were able to partition the centers into four groups. We consider two model structures for the GS Model. Firstly, a hierarchical classification model [10], where the human decision-making for a GS is of hierarchical nature. The decision-maker first decides whether there is a need fora GS, and if the answer is yes, determines the scope. A hierarchical classification model organizes the problem into a class hierarchy, typically a tree or a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) structure, and considers the dependency of the decision in the previous step to the next component [10]. Here, we employ the local classifier per level approach, which involves training one multi-class classifier for each level of the class hierarchy. The second structure is the independent structure. In this setting, as the name suggests, we do not consider the dependency of the decisions in the different dimensions of the output of the model. Instead, for each dimension, we train a multi-class classifier independently. Table 1 summarizes GS model statistics for training, validation and testing. The table documents the effect of limiting data to the time steps when there was actually a TMI in place or when a TMI had just terminated. This resulted in a more balanced distribution of the GS class(GS positive class)versus “No GS”(GS negative class), which might help the training process. While JFK and LGA follow very similar distributions, with 40% and 42% GS positive class respectively, EWR has proportionally fewer GS incidents at 28%. Our subsequent phase involves evaluating the performance of both hierarchical structure and independent structure using different state-of-the-art multi-class classifier models such as Random Forest, Decision Trees, K-nearest Neighbors, and Logistic Regression and forecast the duration and scope of the GSs.

Farzan Masrour Shalmani↗