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Global atmospheric changes due to ozone destruction and the greenhouse effect are discussed. The work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is reviewed, including its judgements regarding global warming and its recommendations for improving predictive capability. The chemistry of ozone destruction and the global atmospheric budget of nitrous oxide are reviewed, and the global sources of nitrous oxide are described.
The old idea that Venus might possess surface conditions to those of an overcast earth has been thoroughly refuted by space-age measurements. Instead, the two planets may have started out similar, but diverged because of the greater solar flux at Venus. This cannot be proved, but is consistent with everything known. A runaway greenhouse effect could have evaporated an 'ocean'. The hydrogen would escape, and most of the oxygen would be incorporated into the crust. Without liquid water, CO2 would remain in the atmosphere. Chlorine atoms would catalyze the recombination of any free oxygen back to CO2. The same theories apply to the future of the earth, and to the explanation of the polar ozone holes; the analogies are striking. There is no likelihood that the earth will actually come to resemble Venus, but Venus serves both as a warning that major environmental effects can flow from seemingly small causes, and as a testbed for the predictive models of the earth.
It is illustrated how climate forcing by stratospheric aerosols depends on aerosol properties. The climate forcing is a function of aerosols size distribution, but the size dependence can be described well by a single parameter: the area-weighted mean radius, r(eff). If r(eff) is greater than about 2 microns, the global average greenhouse effect of the aerosols exceeds the albedo effect, causing a surface heating. The aerosol climate forcing is less sensitive to other characteristics of the size distribution, the aerosol composition, and the altitude of the aerosols. Thus stratospheric aerosol forcing can be defined accurately from measurements of aerosol extinction over a broad wavelength range.
This pamphlet is a semi-annual report for the period April 1992 through September 1992 dealing with the study of climatology. This introductory pamphlet treats in the simplest of terms such topics as climate change, the greenhouse effect, the global heat engine, hydrology, oceanography, computers and climatology, ice ages, and global warming. Informative charts are included.
A detailed chemical kinetic scheme is applied to stellar envelope profiles of gas density and temperature profiles in order to study the formation of PAH molecules in carbon-rich stellar outflows. Chemical concentration profiles are calculated for several envelope models by integrating the coupled continuity equations that include spherically expanding flows from an inner boundary at the shock formation radius. The influence of the 'inverse greenhouse' effect experienced by small PAHs is investigated and shown to increase the PAH yield by many orders of magnitude. It is shown that the route through propargyl radicals could be an important channel to produce benzene. PAH formation yields are found to be extremely sensitive to gas density and temperature and are much smaller than values inferred from the observed dust content of late-type carbon-rich stellar envelopes. It is therefore unlikely that aromatic molecules are generated in the stellar outflow itself.
How much longer the biosphere can survive on earth is reexamined using a more elaborate model than that of Lovelock and Whitfield (1982). The model includes a more accurate treatment of the greenhouse effect of CO2, a biologically mediated weathering parametrization, and the realization that C4 photosynthesis can persist to much lower concentrations of atmospheric CO2. It is found that a C4-plant-based biosphere could survive for at least another 0.9 Gyr to 1.5 Gyr after the present time, depending respectively on whether CO2 or temperature is the limiting factor. Within an additional 1 Gyr, earth may lose water to space, thereby following the path of Venus.
Several technology needs for future space-based lidar/DIAL applications are outlined in connection with Mission to Planet Earth. First, approved laser radar missions included in Mission to Planet Earth are outlined with emphasis on engineering developments at the NASA Langley Research Center. The current status of solid-state laser materials is then presented with particular reference to those materials that will lead to the development of a 2-micron technology for a variety of wind sensing applications. Finally, recommendations are given for accelerated technology development which will lead to laser radar experiments from space to improve scientific understanding of atmospheric chemistry and dynamics, the greenhouse effect, and improvements in measurements of meteorological parameters.
The epochal climate change and volatile history of Mars are examined, with special attention given to evidence for and mechanisms of long-term climate change. Long-term climate change on Mars is indicated most directly by the presence, age, and distribution of the valley networks. They were almost certainly formed by running water, but it seems more likely that they were formed by groundwater sapping than by rainfall. It is argued to be physically plausible that a higher early intensity of surface insolation caused by a CO2 greenhouse effect could have overcompensated for an early weak sun and raised temperatures to the freezing point near the equator under favorable conditions of obliquity and eccentricity. This could account for the morphological changes.
The relationship between clear sky water vapor anomalies and the SST anomalies (SSTAs) was investigated with the purpose of providing data for evaluating the clear sky greenhouse effect predicted in many global warming scenarios, by statistically analyzing anomaly data sets of SST and the water vapor anomaly data (obtained by subtracting the mean value of the six years of data for a given month from the observed values). Results show that clear sky water vapor anomalies increase in association with increases in SSTAs. The clear sky water vapor anomalies high in the troposphere were also found to increase with increasing SSTA.
From 1979 through 1987, it is believed that variability in the incoming solar energy played a significant role in changing the Earth's climate. Using high-precision spacecraft radiometric measurements, the incoming total solar irradiance (total amount of solar power per unit area) and the Earth's mean, global atmospheric temperatures were found to vary in phase with each other. The observed irradiance and temperature changes appeared to be correlated with the 11-year cycle of solar magnetic activity. During the period from 1979 through 1985, both the irradiance and temperature decreased. From 1985 to 1987, they increased. The irradiance changed approximately 0.1 percent, while the temperature varied as much as 0.6 C. During the 1979-1987 period, the temperatures were forecasted to rise linearly because of the anthropogenic build-up of carbon dioxide and the hypothesized 'global warming', 'greenhouse effect', scenarios. Contrary to these scenarios, the temperatures were found to vary in a periodic manner in phase with the solar irradiance changes. The observed correlations between irradiance and temperature variabilily suggest that the mean, global temperature of the Earth may decline between 1990 and 1997 as solar magnetic activity decreases.
Based on simultaneous measurements of CO2 and CH4 exchange in wetlands extending from subarctic peatlands to subtropical marshes, a positive correlation between CH4 emission and net ecosystem production is reported. It is suggested that net ecosystem production is a master variable integrating many factors which control CH4 emission in vegetated wetlands. It is found that about 3 percent of the daily net ecosystem production is emitted back to the atmosphere as CH4. With projected stimulation of primary production and soil microbial activity in wetlands associated with elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, the potential for increasing CH4 emission from inundated wetlands, further enhancing the greenhouse effect, is examined.
This educational document, designed for grades 9 to 10, discusses the observation of oceans from space. Topics covered include ocean color, the role of phytoplankton, the carbon cycle, and the greenhouse effect. Activities and discussion questions are presented.
A warm climate on early Mars would provide a natural, although not unique, explanation for the presence of fluvial networks on the ancient, heavily cratered terrains. Explaining how the climate could have been kept warm, however, is not easy. The idea that the global average surface temperature, T(sub s), could have been kept warm by a dense, CO2 atmosphere supplied by volcanism or impacts is no longer viable. It was shown that CO2 cloud formation should have kept T(sub s) well below freezing until approximately 2 b.y. ago, when the Sun had brightened to at least 86 percent of its present value. Warm equatorial regions on an otherwise cold planet seem unlikely because atmospheric CO2 would probably condense out at the poles. Warming by impact-produced dust in the atmosphere seems unlikely because the amount of warming expected for silicate dust particles is relatively small. Greenhouse warming by high altitude CO2 ice clouds seems unlikely because such are poor absorbers of infrared radiation at most wavelengths. Warming by atmospheric NH3 seems unlikely because NH3 is readily photodissociated and because N may have been in short supply as consequence of impact erosion and the high solubility of NH3. A brighter, mass-losing young Sun seems unlikely because stellar winds of the required strength were not observed on other solar-type stars. In short, most of the explanations for a warm Martian paleoclimate that were proposed in the past seem unlikely. One possibility that seems feasible from radiative/photochemical standpoint is that CH4 and associated hydrocarbon gases and particles contributed substantially to the greenhouse effect on early Mars. Methane is photochemically more stable than NH3 and the gases and particles that can be formed from it are all good absorbers of infrared radiation. The idea of a CH4-rich Martian paleoatmosphere was suggested a long time ago but has fallen out of favor because of perceived difficulties in maintaining a CH4-rich atmosphere. In particular, it is not obvious where the CH4 might come from, since volcanic gases (on Earth, at least) contain very little CH4. This difficulty could be largely overcome if early Mars was inhabited by microorganisms. Then, methanogenic bacteria living in sediments could presumably have supplied CH4 to the atmosphere in copious quantities.
This video presentation describes the methods and instrumentation used to help in determining future climate changes on Earth and explains the benefits of experimentation with synthetic aperture radar (SAR). It also gives a better understanding of the burning of fossil fuels, deterioration of the biosphere and deforestation of the rain forest which causes the greenhouse effect.
Two issues in the treatment of tropical convection in general circulation models are examined. First, several studies have found significant gradients in clear sky longwave fluxes near large convective systems. Increased upper tropospheric moisture associated with deep convection may explain the reduction in the longwave emission. Similar local gradients are not apparent in measurements from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE), an important data set for model validation. Thus the average cloud forcing and greenhouse effect derived from models and observations may differ systematically over warm tropical oceans. A comparison of ERBE fluxes with radiative calculations using coincident balloon-sonde atmospheric profiles indicates negligible systematic bias in the observations. The effect of convection on the clear sky fluxes may be localized to the edges of individual cloud systems. Second, the balance between shortwave and cloud forcing and longwave forcing is a persistent feature of tropical cloud systems in ERBE data. This cancellation effect has been used to diagnose problems in GCM (General Circulation Model) cloud fields on seasonal time scales. The daily record of net cloud radiative forcing is analyzed to determine the smallest spatial and temporal scales for the balance. The results show cancellation on periods as short as three days for regions smaller than 2.5 by 2.5 deg. The analysis indicates that the balance is primarily a local phenomenon characteristic of tropical convection. This is consistent with findings that the small cloud radiative forcing is due primarily to thick tropical cirrus. These results represent a particularly stringent test of convective parameterizations in GCM's with interactive ocean surfaces.
In order to compare the clear-sky greenhouse effect and cloud-radiative forcing from general circulation models with Earth Radiation Budget Experiments (ERBE) data, it is necessary to calculate the general circulation model (GCM) clear-sky radiative fluxes in a way consistent with ERBE. This study discusses problems associated with the available methods for clear-sky radiative flux computations in GCMs and proposes a new approach, which uses a statistical relationship between the grid cloud cover and the availability of ERBE clear-sky measurement, established from ERBE pixel data, to sample the model radiative fluxes. Calculations with version 2 of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model using observed sea surface temperature (SST) show good agreement of clear-sky sampling from the proposed method with ERBE sampling. It is also shown that large improvements are achieved in the spatial variability of the model clear-sky radiative fluxes over ocean, with reference to ERBE, by using the new clear-sky sampling method.
Because changes in the Earth's environment have become major global issues, continuous, longterm scientific information is required to assess global problems such as deforestation, desertification, greenhouse effects and climate variations. Global change studies require understanding of interactions of complex processes regulating the Earth system. Space-based Earth observation is an essential element in global change research for documenting changes in Earth environment. It provides synoptic data for conceptual predictive modeling of future environmental change. This paper provides a brief overview of remote sensing technology from the perspective of global change research.
The response of radiation budgets to changes in water vapor and clouds in an El Nino episode is investigated using the analyzed sea surface temperature (SST) and satellite-derived clouds and the earth radiation budgets for the tropical Pacific (30 deg N-30 deg S, 100 deg E-100 deg W). Analyses are performed for April 1985 and April 1987. The former is a non-El Nino year and the latter is an El Nino year. Compared to April 1985, when the SST over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific is approximately 2 C lower, the high-level cloudiness in April 1987 increases in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Corresponding to the increase in cloudiness, the outgoing longwave radiation and the net downward solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere decrease. The patterns of these changes are reversed in the western tropical Pacific and the Northern Hemispheric (NH) subsidence region centered at approximately 20 deg N, indicating an eastward shift of the convection center from the maritime continents to the central equatorial Pacific and a strengthened NH Hadley circulation. The earth-atmosphere system in the region receives less radiative energy by 4 W/sq m in the warmer month of April 1987 than in the month of April 1985, which is primarily caused by a reduced atmospheric clear sky greenhouse effect in the NH tropical Pacific in April 1987. Clouds have strong effects on both the IR and solar radiation, but the net effect on the radiation budget at the top of the atmopshere changes only slightly between April 1985 and April 1987. The results are consistent with Lindzen's hypothesis that reduced upper-tropospheric water vapor in the vicinity of the enhanced convection region produces cooling that counteracts warming in the Tropics.