A quantitative analysis of the impact of modern software engineering techniques on software quality and development productivity
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The statistical characteristics of impact ice shear strength are analyzed, with emphasis placed on the most probable shear strength and statistical distribution of an ice deposit. Several distribution types are considered: the Weibull, two-parameter Weibull, and exponential distributions, as well as the Gumbell distribution of the smallest extreme and the Gumbell distribution of the largest extreme. It is concluded that the Weibull distribution yields the best results; however, the expected life, shape parameter, and scale parameter should be determined separately for each case of varying wind speed and droplet size. The theoretical predictions of shear stresses in a specific rotating ice shape are compared, and it is noted that when the effects of lift are added to the theoretical model and the interference is calculated with a new mean and standard deviation, the probability of ice shed is computed as 36.64 pct.
One hundred capture cells from the trailing edge, which had lost their cover foils during flight, were optically scanned for extended impact features caused by high velocity projectiles impinging on the cells while the foils were still intact. Of the 53 candidates, 24 impacts were analyzed by secondary ion mass spectroscopy for the chemical composition of the deposits. Projectile material was found in all impacts, and at least 75 percent of them appear to be caused by interplanetary dust particles. Elemental ratios are fractionated, with refractory elements enriched in the impacts relative to interplanetary dust particles collected in the stratosphere. Although this could be due to systematic differences in the compositions, a more likely explanation is volatility fractionation during the impact process.
The preliminary results from attempts to derive depth and diameter information from digitized stereo images of impact features on the LDEF are reported. Contrary to our prior assumption, we find that impact craters in the T6 A1 alloy are not paraboloid in cross section, but rather are better described by a 6th-order polynomial curve. We explore the implications of this discovery.
The Long Duration Exposure Facility provided a gravity gradient stabilized platform which allowed limited directional information to be derived from particle impact experiments. The morphology of impact craters on semi-infinite materials contains information which may be used to determine the direction of impact much more accurately. We demonstrate the applicability of this technique and present preliminary results of measurements from LDEF and modelling of interplanetary dust and space debris.
Numerous 'extended impacts' found in both leading and trailing edge capture cells were successfully analyzed for the chemical composition of projectile residues by secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS). Most data were obtained from the trailing edge cells where 45 of 58 impacts were classified as 'probably natural' and the remainder as 'possibly man-made debris.' This is in striking contrast to leading edge cells where 9 of 11 impacts so far measured are definitely classified as orbital debris. Although all the leading edge cells had lost their plastic entrance foils during flight, the rate of foil failure was similar to that of the trailing edge cells, 10 percent of which were recovered intact. Ultraviolet embrittlement is suspected as the major cause of failure on both leading and trailing edges. The major impediment to the accurate determination of projectile chemistry is the fractionation of volatile and refractory elements in the hypervelocity impact and redeposition processes. This effect had been noted in a simulation experiment but is more pronounced in the LDEF capture cells, probably due to the higher average velocities of the space impacts. Surface contamination of the pure Ge surfaces with a substance rich in Si, but also containing Mg and Al, provides an additional problem for the accurate determination of impactor chemistry. The effect is variable, being much larger on surfaces that were exposed to space than in those cells that remained intact. Future work will concentrate on the analyses of more leading edge impacts and the development of new SIMS techniques for the measurement of elemental abundances in extended impacts.
A study of the effects on forecast accuracy of adding wind-profiler data is conducted. An observing system simulation test is employed that assumes a sufficient concentration of aerosols to provide global wind profiles (a best case scenario). The simulated data for the series of five day forecasts are produced from a twenty day integration utilizing the ECMWF model, which is also employed to produce the verification forecast for the five day period.
The volume of impact melt relative to that of the transient cavity is known to increase with the magnitude of the impact event. This paper investigates the influence of that phenomenon on the nature of terrestrial impact craters. A model of impact melting was used to estimate the volume of melt produced during the impact of chondritic projectiles into granite targets at velocities of 15, 25, and 50 km per sec. The results were compared with observed melt volumes at terrestrial craters, which were collated from the literature and paired with the transient-cavity diameters of their respective craters. Results show that the record on terrestrial craters is not inconsistent with the predictions of the model.
The impact of the Seasat-A satellite scatterometer wind data and the increased horizontal resolution on the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres model predictions of the Queen Elizabeth II (QE II) storm of 9-11 September 1978 was evaluated for four different GLA model simulations of the QE II storm. It is shown that the largest impact on the simulation was caused by doubling the model's horizontal resolution from 4 deg x 5 deg to 2 deg x 2.5 deg. The increased resolution resulted in a storm track which was much closer to the one observed, with a much deeper surface development, a stronger mass circulation, stronger heating, and stronger increase of angular momentum.
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Many of the synergistic impacts resulting from future changes in emissions as well as changes in ambient temperature, moisture, and UV flux have not been quantified. A three-dimensional regional-scale photo-chemical model (STEM-2) is used in this study to evaluate these perturbations to trace gas cycles over the eastern half of the United States of America. The model was successfully used to simulate a regional-scale ozone episode (base case - June 1984) and four perturbations scenarios - viz., perturbed emissions, temperature, water vapor column, and incoming UV flux cases, and a future scenario (for the year 2034). The impact of these perturbation scenarios on the distribution of ozone and other major pollutants such as SO2 and sulfates were analyzed in detail. The spatial distribution and the concentration of ozone at the surface increased by about 5-15 percent for most cases except for the perturbed water vapor case. The regional scale surface ozone concentration distribution for the year 2034 (future scenario) showed an increase of non-attainment areas. The rural areas of Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Georgia showed the largest change in the surface ozone field for the futuristic scenario when compared to the base case.
The HEX bumper was originally developed for use with the Defensive Shields Demonstration (DSD) Program. The University of Dayton Research Institute was a subcontractor to the Martin Marietta Astronautics Group in Denver Colorado at the time the HEX bumper was designed for use on the DSD Program. The design originated at the University and was essentially made available to interested parties. All HEX bumpers used in the DSD Program were fabricated at the University by rolling sheet stock through a special set of rollers. Two pieces of 3003-H14 aluminum sheet were rolled to produce the bumpers evaluated in Shots 4-1302 and 4-1304. A brief summary of the results of these tests is given in below. Contact prints of the multiple-exposure, orthogonal view radiographs of the debris clouds produced by the tests are attached. A sketch of the HEX bumper design is also attached.
Results of a series of hypervelocity impact tests are presented. In these tests, 1.275-g, 9.53-mm-diameter, 2017-T4 aluminum spheres were fired at normal incidence at eight thicknesses of 6061-T6 aluminum sheet. Bumper thickness to projectile diameter (t/D) ratio ranged from 0.026 to 0.424. Nominal impact velocity was 6.7 km/s. Results of five tests using 6.35, 9.53, and 12.70-mm-diameter aluminum spheres and other aluminum alloy bumpers are also given. A large chunky fragment of projectile was observed at the center of the debris clouds produced by the impacts. The equivalent diameter of this large fragment ranged from 5.5 mm for the lowest t/D ratio to a minimum of 0.6 mm for the case where maximum breakup of the projectile occurred (t/D approximately 0.2 to 0.3). When the t/D ratio was 0.42, numerous large flaky fragments were evenly distributed in the external bubble of bumper debris. Velocity of the large central fragments decreased continuously with increasing t/D ratio, ranging from about 99 percent to less than 80 percent of the impact velocity. The change in the velocity of small fragments spalling from the rear of the projectile was used to obtain a relationship showing a linear increase in the size of the central projectile fragment with decrease in the shock-induced stress in the projectile.
Full-scale aircraft crash simulations performed with nonlinear, transient dynamic, finite element codes can incorporate structural complexities such as: geometrically accurate models; human occupant models; and advanced material models to include nonlinear stressstrain behaviors, laminated composites, and material failure. Validation of these crash simulations is difficult due to a lack of sufficient information to adequately determine the uncertainty in the experimental data and the appropriateness of modeling assumptions. This paper evaluates probabilistic approaches to quantify the uncertainty in the simulated responses. Several criteria are used to determine that a response surface method is the most appropriate probabilistic approach. The work is extended to compare optimization results with and without probabilistic constraints.
This report presents the testing and analyses of a foam projectile impacting onto thirteen 6x6 inch flat panels at a 90 degrees incidence angle. The panels tested in this investigation were fabricated of Reinforced-Carbon-Carbon material and were used to aid in the validation of an existing material model, MAT58. The computational analyses were performed using LS-DYNA, which is a physics-based, nonlinear, transient, finite element code used for analyzing material responses subjected to high impact forces and other dynamic conditions. The test results were used to validate LS-DYNA predictions and to determine the threshold of damage generated by the MAT58 cumulative damage material model. The threshold of damage parameter represents any external or internal visible RCC damage detectable by nondestructive evaluation techniques.
Asteroids or comets striking a planetary surface at shallow angles typically produce elliptical-shaped craters.
Carbon monoxide (CO) total column observations from the SCanning Imaging Absorption SpectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartography (SCIAMACHY) on board ENVISAT are assimilated into the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) constituent assimilation system for the period July 18-October 31, 2004. This is the first assimilation of CO observations from a near infrared sounder. The impact of the assimilation on CO distribution is evaluated using independent Measurement of Ozone and Water vapor by Airbus In-service Aircraft (MOZAIC) in-situ CO profiles. Assimilation of satellite data improves agreement with MOZAIC CO globally, especially in the upper troposphere.
One of the critical non-replaceable systems of a long-term manned orbital station is the propulsion system. Since the propulsion system operates beginning with the launch of station elements into orbit, its service life determines the service life of the station overall. Weighing almost a million pounds, the International Space Station (ISS) is about four times as large as the Russian space station Mir and about five times as large as the U.S. Skylab. Constructed over a span of more than a decade with the help of over 100 space flights, elements and modules of the ISS provide more research space than any spacecraft ever built. Originally envisaged for a service life of fifteen years, this Earth orbiting laboratory has been in orbit since 1998. Some elements that have been launched later in the assembly sequence were not yet built when the first elements were placed in orbit. Hence, some of the early modules that were launched at the inception of the program were already nearing the end of their design life when the ISS was finally ready and operational. To maximize the return on global investments on ISS, it is essential for the valuable research on ISS to continue as long as the station can be sustained safely in orbit. This paper describes the work performed to extend the service life of the ISS propulsion system. A system comprises of many components with varying failure rates. Reliability of a system is the probability that it will perform its intended function under encountered operating conditions, for a specified period of time. As we are interested in finding out how reliable a system would be in the future, reliability expressed as a function of time provides valuable insight. In a hypothetical bathtub shaped failure rate curve, the failure rate, defined as the number of failures per unit time that a currently healthy component will suffer in a given future time interval, decreases during infant-mortality period, stays nearly constant during the service life and increases at the end when the design service life ends and wear-out phase begins. However, the component failure rates do not remain constant over the entire cycle life. The failure rate depends on various factors such as design complexity, current age of the component, operating conditions, severity of environmental stress factors, etc. Development, qualification and acceptance test processes provide rigorous screening of components to weed out imperfections that might otherwise cause infant mortality failures. If sufficient samples are tested to failure, the failure time versus failure quantity can be analyzed statistically to develop a failure probability distribution function (PDF), a statistical model of the probability of failure versus time. Driven by cost and schedule constraints however, spacecraft components are generally not tested in large numbers. Uncertainties in failure rate and remaining life estimates increase when fewer units are tested. To account for this, spacecraft operators prefer to limit useful operations to a period shorter than the maximum demonstrated service life of the weakest component. Running each component to its failure to determine the maximum possible service life of a system can become overly expensive and impractical. Spacecraft operators therefore, specify the required service life and an acceptable factor of safety (FOS). The designers use these requirements to limit the life test duration. Midway through the design life, when benefits justify additional investments, supplementary life test may be performed to demonstrate the capability to safely extend the service life of the system. An innovative approach is required to evaluate the entire system, without having to go through an elaborate test program of propulsion system elements. Evaluating every component through a brute force test program would be a cost prohibitive and time consuming endeavor. ISS propulsion system components were designed and built decades ago. There are no representative ground test articles for some of the components. A 'test everything' approach would require manufacturing new test articles. The paper outlines some of the techniques used for selective testing, by way of cherry picking candidate components based on failure mode effects analysis, system level impacts, hazard analysis, etc. The type of testing required for extending the service life depends on the design and criticality of the component, failure modes and failure mechanisms, life cycle margin provided by the original certification, operational and environmental stresses encountered, etc. When specific failure mechanism being considered and the underlying relationship of that mode to the stresses provided in the test can be correlated by supporting analysis, time and effort required for conducting life extension testing can be significantly reduced. Exposure to corrosive propellants over long periods of time, for instance, lead to specific failure mechanisms in several components used in the propulsion system. Using Arrhenius model, which is tied to chemically dependent failure mechanisms such as corrosion or chemical reactions, it is possible to subject carefully selected test articles to accelerated life test. Arrhenius model reflects the proportional relationship between time to failure of a component and the exponential of the inverse of absolute temperature acting on the component. The acceleration factor is used to perform tests at higher stresses that allow direct correlation between the times to failure at a high test temperature to the temperatures to be expected in actual use. As long as the temperatures are such that new failure mechanisms are not introduced, this becomes a very useful method for testing to failure a relatively small sample of items for a much shorter amount of time. In this article, based on the example of the propulsion system of the first ISS module Zarya, theoretical approaches and practical activities of extending the service life of the propulsion system are reviewed with the goal of determining the maximum duration of its safe operation.