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DOE OSTI2026

Emergence of Diverse Failure Patterns in Weathering‐Induced Landslides: Insights From Particle Finite Element Simulations

Weathering is a fundamental driver of landslide evolution over geological timescales. Despite its ubiquity and importance, quantifying how weathering drives the progressive destabilization of rock slopes remains challenging. In this work, we develop a unified computational framework based on the particle finite element method to investigate the evolution of weathering‐induced landslides, from long‐term weathering to short‐term slope failure and runout dynamics. The framework integrates key processes, including weathering front propagation, time‐dependent strength degradation, rupture surface development, and post‐failure runout dynamics. Through numerical simulation experiments, we elucidate how interactions among weathering characteristics (type, intensity, and rate law), bedrock strength, fracture distribution, and slope geometry govern the failure modes and kinematics of weathering‐induced landslides. Simulations show that matrix‐dominated weathering leads to shallow translational failures, whereas fracture‐dominated weathering produces deep‐seated rotational and compound landslides. Pre‐existing fractures and slope morphology also strongly influence the movement of destabilized landmasses, affecting the failure pattern (e.g., kinematic mode and rupture surface geometry) and post‐failure behavior (e.g., runout velocity). We further demonstrate that the failure time and volume of weathered slopes are governed by the competition between gravitational driving forces and cohesive resisting forces during progressive destabilization. These findings provide new insights into the fundamental mechanisms that drive the emergence of diverse failure patterns of weathering‐induced landslides with important implications for landslide hazard assessment.

Wang, Liang [Eidgenoessische Technische Hochschule↗

DOE OSTI2024

A New Simplified Discrete Fracture Model for Shearing of Intersecting Fractures and Faults

Abstract Shearing of fractures and faults is important because it can result in permeability change or even induce seismicity—both are keys for efficient and safe energy recovery and storage in Earth systems. Quantitative analysis of shearing of intersecting fractures and faults is challenging because it can involve dynamic frictional contacts that are complicated by deformation of the rock matrix. To predict the shearing of intersecting fractures/faults, we attempt to answer the question of how intersections impact the shearing of a fracture network and whether we can simplify the description as compared to classical discrete fracture network (DFN) models. To answer these questions, we conducted a series of numerical simulations on scenarios for variable numbers of intersecting fractures. All these examples yield consistent results: the results of using DFNs are consistent with those of using hypothetical major paths. This leads to a new model, which we name simplified discrete fracture network model , to analyze shearing of intersecting fractures/faults using major path(s). We found that the intersections of fractures do not fundamentally change the shearing of two intersecting fractures if the intersecting angles are small. Furthermore, increasing the number of fractures/faults may relax the stress as more fractures/faults become available for shearing and distributing the stress. The simplified DFN model, which can capture efficiently the shearing behavior of each major paths from a large number of intersecting fractures/faults, will be a promising conceptual model that is complementary to existing equivalent continuum and discrete fracture models to analyze shearing of intersecting fractures/faults.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Fracture toughness evaluation for Zr-4 clad tubing structure with pellet inserts

Applying fracture mechanics approach to spent nuclear fuel (SNF) system reliability investigation is warranted due to the inherent flaws and hydride structures existed in a SNF system after nuclear reactor operation. However, none of the existing fracture toughness data deal with fuel cladding specific geometry or spent fuel material conditions, such as cladding structure with the pellet-inserts and the associated pellet clad mechanical interactions induced mixed-mode damage mechanisms. Thus, the development of an intrinsic fracture mechanics approach that is suitable for SNF materials is needed. Due to thin wall and small dimension of clad tubing structure, the spiral notch torsion test (SNTT) method of small specimen approach was used to estimate the clad tubing structure fracture toughness. The estimated fracture toughness for Zr-4 cladding with alumina-pellet inserts are presented in this report. For SNTT samples with a short or medium crack length, between 5.4-mm and 8-mm, the estimate JIQ upon fracture initiation for the baseline Zr-4 cladding is at 50 kJ/m2 with 2-sigma uncertainty of 3.26 kJ/m2, and the associated KIQ is at 67.46 MPa√m. For SNTT samples with a long crack length, around 13-mm, the crack initialization is deviated from that of the Mode-I tensile fracture and appears to be a mixed-mode fracture of Mode I – tensile stress and Mode III – out of plane shear stress; the estimated JMQ is at 18.9 kJ/m2, the associated KMQ is at 41.4 MPa√m.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Fracture toughness evaluations for spent nuclear fuel dry storage canister welds and spent nuclear fuel clad-pellet structures

Integrity of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) interim storage canisters is very important to the safety of the back-end nuclear fuel cycle. Stress corrosion cracking (SCC) potential of interim storage canister has been considered as a high priority. Because no post-weld heat treatment was required for forming these canisters, the high tensile residual stress existed within these canister welds. This can change the fracture resistance capacity significantly as well as increase SCC potential. Due to relative thin shell thickness of a canister weldment, the spiral notch torsion test (SNTT) method was used to estimate the canister weldment fracture toughness. SNTT was developed to measure the intrinsic fracture toughness of structural materials using small specimens. The SNTT method has been applied to a wide variety of structural materials, such as low-alloy steels, stainless steel, aluminum alloy, ceramics, concrete, and composites. The SNTT system operates by applying pure torsion to cylindrical specimens with a notch line that spirals around the specimen at a 45° pitch. In order to carry out pure torsion load mode, biaxial tension/torsion tester was developed accordingly to perform SNTT protocol. Moreover, applying fracture mechanics approach to SNF system reliability investigation is warranted due to the inherent flaws and hydride structures existed in a SNF system after nuclear reactor operation. However, none of the existing fracture toughness data deal with fuel cladding specific geometry or spent fuel material conditions, such as cladding structure with the pellet-inserts and the associated pellet clad mechanical interactions induced mixed-mode damage mechanisms. Thus, the development of an intrinsic fracture mechanics approach that is suitable for SNF materials is needed. Furthermore, due to thin wall and small dimension of clad tubing structure, the SNTT method was used to estimate the clad tubing structure fracture toughness. Fracture testing were performed on the received stainless steel canister weldment, most SNTT weld samples fracture initiation sites are at heat-affected zone (HAZ) regions. The estimated fracture toughness J Q ’ for the baseline SS304 steel is at 283 kJ/m². The estimated JQ’ for the SS304/308 weld and baseline metals are 148 kJ/m 2 and 459 kJ/m 2 , respectively. Out of cell fracture testing for spent fuel structure were carried out on the surrogate rods made of Zr-4 clad and alumina inserts, the estimated fracture toughness values for baseline Zr-4 cladding with alumina-pellet inserts are: (1) For SNTT samples with a short or medium crack length, between 5.4-mm and 8-mm, the estimate J IQ upon fracture initiation for the baseline Zr-4 cladding is at 50 kJ/m 2 with 2-sigma uncertainty of 3.26 kJ/m 2 , and the associated K IQ is at 67.46 MPa$\sqrt{m}$; and (2) For SNTT samples with a long crack length, around 13-mm, the crack initialization is deviated from that of the Mode-I tensile fracture and appears to be a mixed-mode fracture of Mode I - tensile stress and Mode III - out of plane shear stress; the estimated J MQ is at 18.9 kJ/m 2 , the associated K MQ is at 41.4 MPa$\sqrt{m}$.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Report Summarizing the Mechanical Properties of a Large ODS Ferritic Alloy Ingot by Forging at High Temperatures for Future Mother Tube Production

Oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) ferritic alloys are considered the benchmark fuel cladding and core structural material in advanced nuclear energy reactors that require high-temperature strength and creep properties and resistance to radiation damage. The ODS ferritic alloys including 14YWT are produced by mechanical alloying (MA), which is time-consuming and is associated with high manufacturing costs that are not beneficial to being used in advanced nuclear energy reactors. This report summarizes the accomplishments in FY24 in the INM program for producing an ODS ferritic alloy by high-deformation, high-temperature processing of reactive and ferritic alloy powders for advanced reactor fuel cladding applications. Following four hot forging experiments, it was concluded that several significant challenges were encountered that were difficult to overcome. These challenges were related to using high annealing temperatures for pressure assisted sintering processes to produce dense microstructures, but the high annealing temperatures result in long range diffusion of Ti through the bcc Fe lattice and react with the YIG particles that are distributed on the prior surfaces of the ferritic alloy powders. In addition, it was determined that the high deformations induced by forging at high temperatures were not very effective for fracturing the reactive YIG particles into smaller particles and distributing them into the interior of the ferritic alloy powders. Spark plasma sintering was attempted for shortening the time at high temperatures, which led to full densification but the microstructure characterization results still showed that Ti atoms diffused over long distances in the bcc Fe lattice and reacted with the YIG particles. Finally, a short 30 minute high intensity ball milling experiment was conducted on blended 14WT and YIG powders for inducing severe deformations that caused the initially spherical powders of 14WT decorated with the YIG particles on the surfaces to transform to flakes and fracturing of YIG particles into smaller particles that were incorporated into the bcc Fe lattice. Two forgings were performed with the high intensity milled powders: first annealing for 20 minutes at 850ºC followed by forging and second annealing for 20 minutes at 1,100ºC followed by forging. At 850ºC, Ti atoms are effectively immobile, thus allowing for densification albeit incomplete. The deformation by forging after annealing for 20 minutes at 1,100ºC favored dynamic recrystallization processes that led to nano-size grains with very high stored energy due to high dislocation density. The corresponding VH data showed significant hardening that correlated with estimated strengthening of ~1650 MPa. This hybrid processing approach combining high intensity ball milling of powder with annealing and forging showed the most promise for producing an oxide dispersing strengthened ferritic alloy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Environmental influence on cracking and debonding of electrically conductive adhesives

Electrically conductive adhesives (ECAs) are starting to replace metallic solders in recent designs of photovoltaic (PV) modules. This transition represents a significant material change, and a proper understanding of the durability and reliability of the new interconnect needs to be established. This paper presents our continued work on developing a degradation model for ECA interconnects in PV modules. Here, we characterize the fracture mechanics properties of an epoxy-based ECA, for both critical and subcritical, mode I and mode II loading conditions. Emphasis is on the influence of different environmental conditions such as temperature and humidity. We use the Finite Element Method to account for residual stresses, induced by temperature changes and moisture absorption, and correct the apparent fracture toughness. We found that high moisture levels not only can weaken the fracture resistance of the ECA interconnect, but can also promote subcritical debonding at significantly lower driving forces than in dry environments.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Mechanisms of Mitigating Chloride-Induced Stress Corrosion Cracking of Austenitic Steels by Laser Shock Peening

This study investigates the effect of laser shock peening (LSP) on the chloride-induced stress corrosion cracking (SCC) of 304 austenitic steels. LSP can induce a high compressive residual stress to a depth of 700 µm and plastic deformation structures of dislocations, deformation twins, and stacking faults. Constant-load SCC tests in MgCl2 solution suggested that LSP can retard the crack initiation and slow the crack growth. LSP-treated subsurface layers experience ductile fracture while the central regions exhibit intergranular SCC. The LSP-induced deformation structures may impede dislocation slips, while the LSP-induced compressive residual stress can lessen the stress intensity factor of crack tips and decrease the local stress for film rupture.

Materials Science↗

DOE OSTI2020

Creation of a Mixed-Mode Fracture Network at Mesoscale Through Hydraulic Fracturing and Shear Stimulation

Enhanced Geothermal Systems could provide a substantial contribution to the global energy demand if their implementation could overcome inherent challenges. Examples are insufficient created permeability, early thermal breakthrough, and unacceptable induced seismicity. In this study we report on the seismic response of a mesoscale hydraulic fracturing experiment performed at 1.5-km depth at the Sanford Underground Research Facility. We have measured the seismic activity by utilizing a 100-kHz, continuous seismic monitoring system deployed in six 60-m length monitoring boreholes surrounding the experimental domain in 3-D. The achieved location uncertainty was on the order of 1 m and limited by the signal-to-noise ratio of detected events. These uncertainties were corroborated by detections of fracture intersections at the monitoring boreholes. Three intervals of the dedicated injection borehole were hydraulically stimulated by water injection at pressures up to 33 MPa and flow rates up to 5 L/min. We located 1,933 seismic events during several injection periods. The recorded seismicity delineates a complex fracture network comprised of multistrand hydraulic fractures and shear-reactivated, preexisting planes of weakness that grew unilaterally from the point of initiation. We find that heterogeneity of stress dictates the seismic outcome of hydraulic stimulations, even when relying on theoretically well-behaved hydraulic fractures. Once hydraulic fractures intersected boreholes, the boreholes acted as a pressure relief and fracture propagation ceased. In order to create an efficient subsurface heat exchanger, production boreholes should not be drilled before the end of hydraulic stimulations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Tritium Aging Effects on Fracture Toughness of Stainless Steel Weldments

The long-term embrittlement effects of tritium and decay helium on the structural properties of stainless steels have been studied for years at Savannah River to provide required data for establishing safe operating conditions and lifetimes of pressure vessels used to contain tritium gas. In this study, the fracture toughness properties of the longest-aged tritium-precharged stainless-steel base metals and weldments tested at Savannah River were measured and compared to earlier results. The fracture toughness values were the lowest recorded here for tritium-exposed stainless steel. As-forged and as-welded specimens were thermally precharging with tritium gas at 34.5 MPa and 623 K, then aged for up to 17 years to buildin decay helium prior to testing. ASTM J-Integral fracture mechanics analyses, transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and small angle neutron scattering (SANS) examinations were conducted to characterize the effects of tritium and its radioactive decay product, helium-3. Results show that the fracture toughness values were reduced to less than 2-4% of the as-forged values for specimens with more than 1300 appm helium from tritium decay. The trend of decreasing fracture toughness values with increasing helium content was consistent with earlier observations, and the data show that Type 304L stainless steel is more resistant to tritium-induced cracking than Type 21-6-9 stainless at similar decay helium levels. The fracture toughness properties of long-aged weldments were also affected, but the reductions were not as severe over time because weldments did not retain as much tritium as did the base metals. TEM observations were used to characterize the effects of decay helium bubbles on the deformation substructures, but nanometer-sized helium bubbles were not easily resolved because of high dislocation densities within the forged microstructures. SANS results are presented that suggest the technique can provide information on decay helium bubble size, spacing, and distribution in these steels.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

On the bulk compaction of brittle granular materials, Part II: Representing interparticle comminution by K COMP

An applied and empirical compaction fracture resistance parameter, K COMP , was developed to represent the compression-induced interparticle-comminution response of granular brittle materials (e.g., ceramic or glass particles). The development of K COMP is an outcome from Part I of this three-paper series. The K COMP represents a continuum response of compaction fracture resistance and was adapted from established Griffith linear elastic fracture mechanics theory. From that, the K COMP relates macroscopically applied compressive stress to a corresponding inverse-square-root representative particle size, where the latter is estimated from an entire particle size distribution or specific surface area measurement. In conclusion, the K COMP value was not constant over a wide range of stresses for all examined brittle granular materials, and this is indicative of a change in the dominant mode of permanent deformation at higher compaction stresses.

brittle↗

DOE OSTI2026

Seismic Elastic Double-Beam Characterization of Faults and Fractures for CO₂ Storage Site Selection

Site characterization for underground injection and storage of gigatonne-scale CO₂ requires reliable and cost-effective methods to detect and characterize faults and fractures and to assess their stress state and fault activation potential. This is critical, as wastewater injection and disposal have been shown to activate faults and induce earthquakes, and CO₂ leakage remains a key concern for long-term storage. In this project, we developed seismic methods to detect and characterize large-scale sedimentary and crystalline basement faults and associated small-scale fractures below conventional seismic imaging resolution using multicomponent (9C) surface seismic data. Machine learning was used to automatically interpret large-scale faults, providing key information for estimating the maximum magnitude of potential induced earthquakes. High-fidelity imaging was achieved by exploiting redundancy across multiple elastic wave modes, where independent images from different modes and frequencies cross-validate each other. We also used our nonlinear signal comparison (NLSC) method for ground roll removal, improving data quality in complex near-surface conditions. The methods were validated using field data acquired in central Montana. Results show that basement faults extend into the sedimentary section and that small-scale fractures are widespread above the basement. The inferred stress orientation is consistent with regional stress data, and the estimated maximum induced earthquake magnitude is small (Mw ~2.3). The developed workflow provides a practical approach for fault and fracture characterization and for assessing induced seismicity and leakage risk. It is directly applicable to CO₂ storage site selection and to other subsurface systems.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2021

A workflow to assess the efficacy of brine extraction for managing injection-induced seismicity potential using data from a CO 2 injection site near Decatur, Illinois

Injection of CO 2 for storage in a geologic formation increases pore pressure and alters in situ stresses. Depending on the orientation of any existing fault and fracture planes, such as critically stressed planes, this stress alteration will modify normal stresses acting on planes and could result in frictional sliding and release stored energy in the form of seismicity. Brine extraction (BE) is a technique that can be applied prior to, or during, CO 2 injection to reduce pore pressure for increasing storage capacity and, potentially, for reducing the likelihood of frictional sliding. Here a workflow is described to assess the efficacy of BE for mitigating frictional sliding (i.e., seismicity) during injection and entails: site characterization, stress calculations and failure assessment, static and dynamic modeling, and BE operational planning. Site characterization describes the stress field used to calculate the Coulomb Failure Function (CFF) that constrains allowable pore pressure changes and injection rates in the numerical simulation of CO 2 injection scenarios. The inclusion of BE in the workflow allows for determination of the potential need for pressure reduction, and evaluation of the effectiveness of this operation. Example application of the workflow using an injection field dataset near Decatur, IL, provides insight on fracture planes and stresses at the site, formation properties and the impact of variable CO 2 injection-rate targets on whether BE plans are required. The study workflow indicates that BE could enhance CO 2 injection rate by 39% and correspondingly reduce the potential for injection-induced seismicity as indicated by a reduction in CFF.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Material Characterization-Based Wear Mechanism Investigation for Biomass Hammer Mills

Biomass, as harvested, is composed of inorganic compounds both intrinsically and extrinsically and can be abrasive. The present study investigates the wear modes and mechanisms of two types of blades of hammer mills used in biomass size reduction (impacting the particle size and distribution) and densification (impacting the size, shape, and density). The dominant wear modes for the stage 1 steel blades are determined to be erosive and polishing wear. For the stage 2 blades with a carbide weld overlay, the main wear mechanisms are erosion and fracture. Partial replacement of Co by Fe in the outer layer of the carbide grits, likely induced by diffusion during high-temperature welding, has been correlated to the observed microcracking. Finally, the microcracking is believed to weaken the grit strength and fracture toughness to make the overlay prone to fracture and erosion due to repetitive contact with the inorganic contents in chopping biomass.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Utah FORGE: Seismic DAS and Geophone Borehole Data Processing and 3D Imaging of Vp/Vs Ratio in the 2024 Stimulated Reservoir

This dataset includes a final report and a 3D velocity model derived from seismic DAS and geophone borehole data collected during the April 2024 stimulation of the reservoir at Utah FORGE. The report details the processing of over 50,000 P- and S-wave travel times used in a tomographic inversion to estimate the Vp/Vs ratio, revealing anomalies adjacent to wells 16A and 16B that may be associated with injected fracturing fluids. Additionally, Wadati analysis of more than 27,000 pairs of differential P- and S-wave travel times supports this interpretation with a high Vp/Vs estimate of 1.86, averaged over the dimensions of the earthquake cluster. The accompanying data file provides a 3D model of P- and S-wave velocities and Vp/Vs ratios, structured with spatial coordinates and velocity values.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Making ultrastrong steel tough by grain-boundary delamination

Developing ultrahigh-strength steels that are ductile, fracture resistant, and cost effective would be attractive for a variety of structural applications. We show that improved fracture resistance in a steel with an ultrahigh yield strength of nearly 2 gigapascals can be achieved by activating delamination toughening coupled with transformation-induced plasticity. Delamination toughening associated with intensive but controlled cracking at manganese-enriched prior-austenite grain boundaries normal to the primary fracture surface dramatically improves the overall fracture resistance. As a result, fracture under plane-strain conditions is automatically transformed into a series of fracture processes in “parallel” plane-stress conditions through the thickness. The present “high-strength induced multidelamination” strategy offers a different pathway to develop engineering materials with ultrahigh strength and superior toughness at economical materials cost.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Benchmark study of a new simplified DFN model for shearing of intersecting fractures and faults

It is challenging to quantitatively predict shearing of intersecting fractures/faults because of dynamic frictional contacts accompanied by possible nonlinear rock deformation. To address such challenges, a new conceptual model—the simplified DFN model—was proposed and validated by Hu et al. 46 to use major paths (MPs) to represent complicated DFNs for calculation of shearing. In this work, we conducted a benchmark study for three examples that involve different levels of complexity of intersecting fractures, and correspondingly different numbers of MPs. The codes and software that were used in the benchmark cover a range of continuum, discontinuum and hybrid numerical methods: NMM (LBNL), FLAC3D (LBNL), GBDEM (KIGAM), FRACOD (DynaFrax), and CASRock (CAS). The general consistency between DFN and MP cases as predicted by all the codes/software demonstrates that major paths can be used to simplify the geometry of DFNs in a wide range of software. Disagreement in results made by some software and potential future improvements are discussed. We show that (1) shearing of one or multiple major fractures can be reduced if there are multiple smaller intersecting fractures in that area, which is a useful basis for understanding and controlling induced seismicity and merits further analysis, and (2) the agreement achieved in the benchmark examples provide confidence that the simplified DFN model is a promising conceptual model that can be used for different types of numerical approaches and software for simplifying the analysis of the shearing of intersecting fractures and faults.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Inertia-induced mixing and reaction maximization in laminar porous media flows

Solute transport and biogeochemical reactions in porous and fractured media flows are controlled by mixing, as are subsurface engineering operations such as contaminant remediation, geothermal energy production, and carbon sequestration. Porous media flows are generally regarded as slow, so the effects of fluid inertia on mixing and reaction are typically ignored. Here, we demonstrate through microfluidic experiments and numerical simulations of mixing-induced reaction that inertial recirculating flows readily emerge in laminar porous media flows and dramatically alter mixing and reaction dynamics. An optimal Reynolds number that maximizes the reaction rate is observed for individual pore throats of different sizes. This reaction maximization is attributed to the effects of recirculation flows on reactant availability, mixing, and reaction completion, which depend on the topology of recirculation relative to the boundary of the reactants or mixing interface. Recirculation enhances mixing and reactant availability, but a further increase in flow velocity reduces the residence time in recirculation, leading to a decrease in reaction rate. The reaction maximization is also confirmed in a flow channel with grain inclusions and randomized porous media. Interestingly, the domain-wide reaction rate shows a dramatic increase with increasing Re in the randomized porous media case. This is because fluid inertia induces complex three-dimensional flows in randomized porous media, which significantly increases transverse spreading and mixing. This study shows how inertial flows control reaction dynamics at the pore scale and beyond, thus having major implications for a wide range of environmental systems.

Chen, Michael A. (ORCID:0000000294614710)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Slip Tendency Analysis of Fracture Networks to Determine Suitability of Candidate Testbeds for the EGS Collab Hydroshear Experiment

Experiment 2 of the EGS Collab project is aimed at testing stimulation by hydro-shearing of existing natural fractures, versus Experiment 1, which is focused on hydraulic fracturing a rock mass to enhance permeability. The main criterion for the testbed selection in Experiment 2 is the presence of an interconnected network of fractures, at least 10 meters in extent, and with orientations such that shear slip can be induced at injection pressures less than the minimum horizontal stress (Shmin). The feasibility analysis for this experiment requires a well-constrained stress state along with well-characterized fracture networks. The fracture systems at two candidate locations in the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF), the 4850 Level (number refers to depth below ground surface in feet) and the 4100 Level, have been characterized to different extents. The 4850 Level has a well-characterized Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) from borehole (drilled for an experimental test bed) and drift observations. In contrast, the 4100 level has a fracture network characterized only by observations from the drift wall, which provides little constraint on fracture extents. This paper will present assessments for the interpreted slip potential for the natural fractures at the two locations. Data uncertainties are addressed by performing a probabilistic analysis that takes into account the uncertainty in the stress state, uncertainty in the fracture properties, and preliminary borehole locations. There is strong evidence of shear stimulation of some natural fractures in Experiment 1 on the 4850 level. We use examples of natural fractures strongly linked to shear stimulation in Experiment 1 from multiple monitoring indicators to test the consistency of the stress model and guide the uncertainty interpretation. This analysis is intended to guide the site selection process for Experiment 2 by highlighting the fracture orientations that are likely to be shear-stimulated in a majority of modeled realizations.

40 EE - Geothermal Technologies Office (EE-4G)↗