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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2007

Long-range Transport of Asian Dust Storms: A Satellite/Surface Perspective on Societal and Scientific Influence

Among the many components contributing to air pollution, airborne mineral dust plays an important role due to its biogeochemical impact on the ecosystem and its radiative forcing effect on the weather/climate system. As much as one-third to half of the global dust emissions, estimated about 800 Tg, are introduced annually into Earth's atmosphere from various deserts in China. Asian dust storm outbreaks are believed to have persisted for hundreds and thousands years over the vast territory of north and northwest China, but not until recent decades that many studies reveal the compelling evidence in recognizing the importance of these eolian dust particles for forming Chinese Loess Plateau and for biogeochemical cycling in the North Pacific Ocean to as far as in the Greenland ice-sheets through long-range transport. The Asian dust and air pollution aerosols can be detected by its colored appearance on current Earth observing satellites and its evolution monitored by satellite and surface network. In this paper, we will demonstrate the capability of a new satellite algorithm, called Deep Blue, to retrieve aerosol properties, particularly but not limited to, over bright-reflecting surfaces such as urban areas and deserts. Recently, many field campaigns were designed and executed to study the compelling variability in spatial and temporal scale of both pollution-derived and naturally occurring aerosols, which often exist in high concentrations over eastern Asia and along the rim of the western Pacific. We will provide an overview of the outbreak of Asian dust storms, near source/sink and their evolution along transport pathway, from space and surface observations. The climatic effects and societal impacts of the Asian dusts will be addressed in depth. (to be presented in the International Workshop on Semi-Arid Land Surface-

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2025

Network of networks: Time series clustering of AmeriFlux sites

Environmental observation networks, such as AmeriFlux, are foundational for monitoring ecosystem response to climate change, management practices, and natural disturbances; however, their effectiveness depends on their representativeness for the regions or continents. We proposed an empirical, time series approach to quantify the similarity of ecosystem fluxes across AmeriFlux sites. We extracted the diel and seasonal characteristics (i.e., amplitudes, phases) from carbon dioxide, water vapor, energy, and momentum fluxes, which reflect the effects of climate, plant phenology, and ecophysiology on the observations, and explored the potential aggregations of AmeriFlux sites through hierarchical clustering. While net radiation and temperature showed latitudinal clustering as expected, flux variables revealed a more uneven clustering with many small (number of sites < 5), unique groups and a few large (> 100) to intermediate (15–70) groups, highlighting the significant ecological regulations of ecosystem fluxes. Many identified unique groups were from under-sampled ecoregions and biome types of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), with distinct flux dynamics compared to the rest of the network. At the finer spatial scale, local topography, disturbance, management, edaphic, and hydrological regimes further enlarge the difference in flux dynamics within the groups. Nonetheless, our clustering approach is a data-driven method to interpret the AmeriFlux network, informing future cross-site syntheses, upscaling, and model-data benchmarking research. Finally, we highlighted the unique and underrepresented sites in the AmeriFlux network, which were found mainly in Hawaii and Latin America, mountains, and at under-sampled IGBP types (e.g., urban, open water), motivating the incorporation of new/unregistered sites from these groups.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1993

Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) and the Continental-scale International Project (GCIP)

A discussion of the objectives of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) and the Continental-scale International Project (GCIP) is presented in vugraph form. The objectives of GEWEX are as follows: determine the hydrological cycle by global measurements; model the global hydrological cycle; improve observations and data assimilation; and predict response to environmental change. The objectives of GCIP are as follows: determine the time/space variability of the hydrological cycle over a continental-scale region; develop macro-scale hydrologic models that are coupled to atmospheric models; develop information retrieval schemes; and support regional climate change impact assessment.

Vane, Deborah↗
NASA NTRS2015

Future Changes in Major Stratospheric Warmings in CCMI Models

Major stratospheric warmings (MSWs) are one of the most important phenomena of wintertime Arctic stratospheric variability. They consist of a warming of the Arctic stratosphere and a deceleration of the polar night jet, triggered by an anomalously high injection of tropospheric wave activity into the stratosphere. Due to the relevance and the impact of MSWs on the tropospheric circulation, several model studies have investigated their potential responses to climate change. However, a wide range of results has been obtained, extending from a future increase in the frequency of MSWs to a decrease. These discrepancies might be explained by different factors such as a competition of radiative and dynamical contributors with opposite effects on the Arctic polar vortex, biases of models to reproduce the related processes, or the metric chosen for the identification of MSWs. In this study, future changes in wintertime Arctic stratospheric variability are examined in order to obtaina more precise picture of future changes in the occurrence of MSWs. In particular, transient REFC2 simulations of different CCMs involved in the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) are used. These simulations extend from 1960 to 2100 and include forcings by halogens and greenhouse gases following the specifications of the CCMI-REF-C2 scenario. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea-ice distributions are either prescribed from coupled climate model integrations or calculated internally in the case of fully coupled atmosphere-ocean CCMs. Potential changes in the frequency and main characteristics of MSWs in the future are investigated with special focus on the dependence of the results on the criterion for the identification of MSWs and the tropospheric forcing of these phenomena.

Chemistry-Climate Modeling↗
DOE OSTI2024

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Evidence-based decision-making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely information on key indicators of the state of the climate system and of the human influence on the global climate system. However, successive IPCC reports are published at intervals of 5–10 years, creating potential for an information gap between report cycles. We follow methods as close as possible to those used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report. We compile monitoring datasets to produce estimates for key climate indicators related to forcing of the climate system: emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers, greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, the Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed to human activities, the remaining carbon budget, and estimates of global temperature extremes. The purpose of this effort, grounded in an open-data, open-science approach, is to make annually updated reliable global climate indicators available in the public domain. As they are traceable to IPCC report methods, they can be trusted by all parties involved in UNFCCC negotiations and help convey wider understanding of the latest knowledge of the climate system and its direction of travel. The indicators show that, for the 2014–2023 decade average, observed warming was 1.19 [1.06 to 1.30] °C, of which 1.19 [1.0 to 1.4] °C was human-induced. For the single-year average, human-induced warming reached 1.31 [1.1 to 1.7] °C in 2023 relative to 1850–1900. The best estimate is below the 2023-observed warming record of 1.43 [1.32 to 1.53] °C, indicating a substantial contribution of internal variability in the 2023 record. Human-induced warming has been increasing at a rate that is unprecedented in the instrumental record, reaching 0.26 [0.2–0.4] °C per decade over 2014–2023. This high rate of warming is caused by a combination of net greenhouse gas emissions being at a persistent high of 53±5.4 Gt CO 2 e yr -1 over the last decade, as well as reductions in the strength of aerosol cooling. Despite this, there is evidence that the rate of increase in CO 2 emissions over the last decade has slowed compared to the 2000s, and depending on societal choices, a continued series of these annual updates over the critical 2020s decade could track a change of direction for some of the indicators presented here.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1989

Rain attenuation measurements: Variability and data quality assessment

Year to year variations in the cumulative distributions of rain rate or rain attenuation are evident in any of the published measurements for a single propagation path that span a period of several years of observation. These variations must be described by models for the prediction of rain attenuation statistics. Now that a large measurement data base has been assembled by the International Radio Consultative Committee, the information needed to assess variability is available. On the basis of 252 sample cumulative distribution functions for the occurrence of attenuation by rain, the expected year to year variation in attenuation at a fixed probability level in the 0.1 to 0.001 percent of a year range is estimated to be 27 percent. The expected deviation from an attenuation model prediction for a single year of observations is estimated to exceed 33 percent when any of the available global rain climate model are employed to estimate the rain rate statistics. The probability distribution for the variation in attenuation or rain rate at a fixed fraction of a year is lognormal. The lognormal behavior of the variate was used to compile the statistics for variability.

Crane, Robert K.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Climate Change Effects on Agriculture: Economic Responses to Biophysical Shocks

Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(sup 2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.

farm crops↗
NASA NTRS2013

A Single-column Model Ensemble Approach Applied to the TWP-ICE Experiment

Single-column models (SCM) are useful test beds for investigating the parameterization schemes of numerical weather prediction and climate models. The usefulness of SCM simulations are limited, however, by the accuracy of the best estimate large-scale observations prescribed. Errors estimating the observations will result in uncertainty in modeled simulations. One method to address the modeled uncertainty is to simulate an ensemble where the ensemble members span observational uncertainty. This study first derives an ensemble of large-scale data for the Tropical Warm Pool International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) based on an estimate of a possible source of error in the best estimate product. These data are then used to carry out simulations with 11 SCM and two cloud-resolving models (CRM). Best estimate simulations are also performed. All models show that moisture-related variables are close to observations and there are limited differences between the best estimate and ensemble mean values. The models, however, show different sensitivities to changes in the forcing particularly when weakly forced. The ensemble simulations highlight important differences in the surface evaporation term of the moisture budget between the SCM and CRM. Differences are also apparent between the models in the ensemble mean vertical structure of cloud variables, while for each model, cloud properties are relatively insensitive to forcing. The ensemble is further used to investigate cloud variables and precipitation and identifies differences between CRM and SCM particularly for relationships involving ice. This study highlights the additional analysis that can be performed using ensemble simulations and hence enables a more complete model investigation compared to using the more traditional single best estimate simulation only.

numerical weather forecasting↗
DOE OSTI2025

Blue Carbon Stocks Along the Pacific Coast of North America Are Mainly Driven by Local Rather Than Regional Factors

Coastal wetlands, including seagrass meadows, emergent marshes, mangroves, and temperate tidal swamps, can efficiently sequester and store large quantities of sediment organic carbon (SOC). However, SOC stocks may vary by ecosystem type and along environmental or climate gradients at different scales. Quantifying such variability is needed to improve blue carbon accounting, conservation effectiveness, and restoration planning. We analyzed SOC stocks in 1,284 sediment cores along >6,500 km of the Pacific coast of North America that included large environmental gradients and multiple ecosystem types. Tidal wetlands with woody vegetation (mangroves and swamps) had the highest mean stocks to 1 m depth (357 and 355 Mg ha −1 , respectively), 45% higher than marshes (245 Mg ha −1 ), and more than 500% higher than seagrass (68 Mg ha −1 ). Unvegetated tideflats, though not often considered a blue carbon ecosystem, had noteworthy stocks (148 Mg ha −1 ). Stocks increased with tidal elevation and with fine (<63 μm) sediment content in several ecosystems. Stocks also varied by dominant plant species within individual ecosystem types. At larger scales, marsh stocks were lowest in the Sonoran Desert region of Mexico, and swamp stocks differed among climate zones; otherwise stocks showed little correlation with ecoregion or latitude. More variability in SOC occurred among ecosystem types, and at smaller spatial scales (such as individual estuaries), than across regional climate gradients. These patterns can inform coastal conservation and restoration priorities across scales where preserving stored carbon and enhancing sequestration helps avert greenhouse gas emissions and maintains other vital ecosystem services.

emergent marsh↗
DOE OSTI2026

Building Energy Analysis of Manufactured and Multifamily Housing Types in Juneau, Alaska

This report details the results of building energy modeling analysis evaluating the potential energy savings, economic outcomes, and grid-level electricity reduction associated with cold climate air source heat pump (ccASHP) adoption across multifamily and manufactured housing (MMFH) building typologies in the City and Borough of Juneau (CBJ). Three building archetypes were evaluated: multifamily 4-plex apartments, multifamily 8-plex apartments, and manufactured housing units. Building energy models were developed using OpenStudio-HPXML and calibrated to actual utility consumption data and local meteorological data from the Juneau International Airport weather station using an automated calibration tool following the BPI-2400-S-2015 v.2 standard for model calibration. Occupant behaviors present the greatest variability in successful calibrations. Calibrated models were benchmarked against a baseline electric resistance heating condition, with the selected ccASHP modeled as the retrofit condition and typical meteorological year weather data for all results generation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2001

Implications of the Observed Mesoscale Variations of Clouds for Earth's Radiation Budget

The effect of small-spatial-scale cloud variations on radiative transfer in cloudy atmospheres currently receives a lot of research attention, but the available studies are not very clear about which spatial scales are important and report a very large range of estimates of the magnitude of the effects. Also, there have been no systematic investigations of how to measure and represent these cloud variations. We exploit the cloud climatology produced by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) to: (1) define and test different methods of representing cloud variation statistics, (2) investigate the range of spatial scales that should be included, (3) characterize cloud variations over a range of space and time scales covering mesoscale (30 - 300 km, 3-12 hr) into part of the lower part of the synoptic scale (300 - 3000 km, 1-30 days), (4) obtain a climatology of the optical thickness, emissivity and cloud top temperature variability of clouds that can be used in weather and climate GCMS, together with the parameterization proposed by Cairns et al. (1999), to account for the effects of small-scale cloud variations on radiative fluxes, and (5) evaluate the effect of observed cloud variations on Earth's radiation budget. These results lead to the formulation of a revised conceptual model of clouds for use in radiative transfer calculations in GCMS. The complete variability climatology can be obtained from the ISCCP Web site at http://isccp.giss.nasa.gov.

Rossow, William B.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Connecting Regional Aerosol Emissions Reductions to Local and Remote Precipitation Responses

The unintended climatic implications of aerosol and precursor emission reductions implemented to protect public health are poorly understood. We investigate the precipitation response to regional changes in aerosol emissions using three coupled chemistry-climate models: NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model 3 (GFDL-CM3), NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM1), and NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE2 (GISS-E2). Our approach contrasts a long present-day control simulation from each model (up to 400 years with perpetual year 2000 or 2005 emissions) with 14 individual aerosol emissions perturbation simulations (160-240 years each). We perturb emissions of sulfur dioxide and/or carbonaceous aerosol within six world regions and assess the significance of precipitation responses relative to internal variability determined by the control simulation and across the models. Global and regional precipitation mostly increases when we reduce regional aerosol emissions in the models, with the strongest responses occurring for sulfur dioxide emissions reductions from Europe and the United States. Precipitation responses to aerosol emissions reductions are largest in the tropics and project onto the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Regressing precipitation onto an Indo-Pacific zonal sea level pressure gradient index (a proxy for ENSO) indicates that the ENSO component of the precipitation response to regional aerosol removal can be as large as 20% of the total simulated response. Precipitation increases in the Sahel in response to aerosol reductions in remote regions because an anomalous interhemispheric temperature gradient alters the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). This mechanism holds across multiple aerosol reduction simulations and models.

Westervelt, Daniel M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Importance of an Ensemble Approach for Modeling Aerosol‐Convection Interactions

Aerosol-convection interactions modulate cloud microphysics, thermodynamics, and updraft intensity, contributing to climate-scale aerosol-radiative forcing. However, quantifying aerosol indirect effects in mixed-phase deep convection remains challenging due to uncertainties in parameterized physics and initial conditions driving nonlinear evolution of convective processes. This study investigates the convective updraft sensitivity to random initial temperature perturbations using an idealized ensemble modeling framework informed by in situ thermodynamic and aerosol observations from the DOE TRACER field campaign. We analyze the impact of small-scale initial perturbations on updraft velocity and supersaturation, and determine the ensemble size required to minimize stochastic internal variability. Results show that minor thermodynamic perturbations can produce updraft variability comparable to aerosol-induced changes reported in prior work. An ensemble of 10 members sufficiently reduces variability, enabling robust investigation of aerosol-related updraft invigoration and informing the design of future ensemble-based aerosol-convection interaction studies in environments with significant spatiotemporal mesoscale thermodynamic and aerosol heterogeneity.

aerosol-convection interactions↗
NASA NTRS1979

Martian meteorology

Viking mission results concerning the structure and dynamics of the Martian atmosphere are reviewed. The large-scale variability of pressure, temperature, and zonally averaged wind at the Lander sites is described, and small-scale phenomena involving the boundary layer and internal gravity waves are discussed. Observational evidence for the existence of transient planetary-scale waves, forced quasi-stationary waves, and thermal tides on Mars is examined. Atmospheric dynamics and properties of dust storms are considered, with emphasis on dust properties and distribution, the time evolution of planetwide dust storms, and dust-storm genesis and decay. Attention is also given to the nature of past Martian climates, the sizes and composition of volatile reservoirs, and volatile escape from the atmosphere.

Leovy, C. B.↗
NASA NTRS2017

The South/Southeast Asia Research Initiative (SARI) Update and Meeting Objectives

Land Use/Cover Change (LU/CC) is one of the most important types of environmental change in South and Southeast Asian countries. Several studies suggest that LU/CC in these countries is in large part driven by population growth and economic development. In the region, changes that are most common include urban expansion, agricultural land loss, land abandonment, deforestation, logging, reforestation, etc. To address the research needs and priorities in the region, a regional initiative entitled South Southeast Asia Regional Initiative (SARI) has been developed involving US and regional scientists. The initiative is funded by NASA Land Cover, Land Use Change program. The goal of SARI is to integrate state-of-the-art remote sensing, natural sciences, engineering and social sciences to enrich LU/CC science in South Southeast Asian countries. In the presentation, LU/CC change research in SARI countries will be highlighted including the drivers of change. For example, in South Asia, forest cover has been increasing in countries like India, Nepal and Bhutan due to sustainable afforestation measures; whereas, large-scale deforestation in Southeast Asian countries is still continuing, due to oil palm plantation expansion driven by the international market demand in Malaysia and Indonesia. With respect to urbanization, South and Southeast Asian countries contain 23 megacities, each with more than 10 million people. Rapid urbanization is driving agricultural land loss and agricultural intensification has been increasing due to less availability of land for growing food crops such as in India, Vietnam, and Thailand. The drivers of LUCC vary widely in the region and include such factors as land tenure, local economic development, government policies, inappropriate land management, land speculation, improved road networks, etc. In addition, variability in the weather, climate, and socioeconomic factors also drive LU/CC resulting in disruptions of biogeochemical cycles, radiation and the surface energy balance of the atmosphere. The presentation will also highlight SARI collaborative activities with space agencies, universities and non-government organizations including data sharing mechanisms in the region.

Research↗
NASA NTRS2008

The Joint Aerosol-Monsoon Experiment: A New Challenge to Monsoon Climate Research

Aerosol and monsoon related droughts and floods are two of the most serious environmental hazards confronting more than 60% of the population of the world living in the Asian monsoon countries. In recent years, thanks to improved satellite and in-situ observations, and better models, great strides have been made in aerosol, and monsoon research respectively. There is now a growing body of evidence suggesting that interaction of aerosol forcing with water cycle dynamics in monsoon regions may substantially alter the redistribution of energy at the earth surface and in the atmosphere, and therefore significantly impact monsoon rainfall variability and long term trends. In this talk, I will describe issues related to societal needs, scientific background, and challenges in studies of aerosol-water cycle interaction in Asian monsoon regions. As a first step towards addressing these issues, the authors call for an integrated observation and modeling research approach aimed at the interactions between aerosol chemistry and radiative effects and monsoon dynamics of the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system. A Joint Aerosol-Monsoon Experiment (JAMEX) is proposed for 2007-2011, with an enhanced observation period during 2008-09, encompassing diverse arrays of observations from surface, aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles, and satellites of physical and chemical properties of aerosols, long range aerosol transport as well as meteorological and oceanographic parameters in the Indo-Pacific Asian monsoon region. JAMEX will leverage on coordination among many ongoing and planned national programs on aerosols and monsoon research in China, India, Japan, Nepal, Italy, US, as well as international research programs of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation, Volume 41 : GDIS Workshop Report

The workshop "An International Global Drought Information System Workshop: Next Steps" was held on 10-13 December 2014 in Pasadena, California. The more than 60 participants from 15 countries spanned the drought research community and included select representatives from applications communities as well as providers of regional and global drought information products. The workshop was sponsored and supported by the US National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) program, the World Climate Research Program (WCRP: GEWEX, CLIVAR), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the Group on Earth Observations (GEO), the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), the US Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) program, and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) programs on Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP) and Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP). NASA/JPL hosted the workshop with logistical support provided by the GEWEX program office. The goal of the workshop was to build on past Global Drought Information System (GDIS) progress toward developing an experimental global drought information system. Specific goals were threefold: (i) to review recent research results focused on understanding drought mechanisms and their predictability on a wide range of time scales and to identify gaps in understanding that could be addressed by coordinated research; (ii) to help ensure that WRCP research priorities mesh with efforts to build capacity to address drought at the regional level; and (iii) to produce an implementation plan for a short duration pilot project to demonstrate current GDIS capabilities. See http://www.wcrp-climate.org/gdis-wkshp-2014-objectives for more information.

GEO↗
DOE OSTI2024

Trends and Drivers of Terrestrial Sources and Sinks of Carbon Dioxide: An Overview of the TRENDY Project

The terrestrial biosphere plays a major role in the global carbon cycle, and there is a recognized need for regularly updated estimates of land-atmosphere exchange at regional and global scales. An international ensemble of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), known as the “Trends and drivers of the regional scale terrestrial sources and sinks of carbon dioxide” (TRENDY) project, quantifies land biophysical exchange processes and biogeochemistry cycles in support of the annual Global Carbon Budget assessments and the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes, phase 2 project. DGVMs use a common protocol and set of driving data sets. A set of factorial simulations allows attribution of spatio-temporal changes in land surface processes to three primary global change drivers: changes in atmospheric CO 2 , climate change and variability, and Land Use and Land Cover Changes (LULCC). Here, we describe the TRENDY project, benchmark DGVM performance using remote-sensing and other observational data, and present results for the contemporary period. Simulation results show a large global carbon sink in natural vegetation over 2012–2021, attributed to the CO 2 fertilization effect (3.8 ± 0.8 PgC/yr) and climate (–0.58 ± 0.54 PgC/yr). Forests and semi-arid ecosystems contribute approximately equally to the mean and trend in the natural land sink, and semi-arid ecosystems continue to dominate interannual variability. The natural sink is offset by net emissions from LULCC (–1.6 ± 0.5 PgC/yr), with a net land sink of 1.7 ± 0.6 PgC/yr. Despite the largest gross fluxes being in the tropics, the largest net land-atmosphere exchange is simulated in the extratropical regions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗