Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “internal variability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Historical sensible-heat-flux variations key to predicting future hydrologic sensitivity

Under anthropogenic climate change (CC), the global hydrological cycle intensifies at a rate known as hydrologic sensitivity (HS). Global climate models (GCMs) exhibit substantial uncertainty in HS. Past work suggests that another form of HS, derived from internal climate variability (IV), is useful for constraining this uncertainty. However, these two forms of HS are weakly related. Here we show that decomposing HS under both CC and IV, based on the global energy budget, provides insight into the likely range of future HS. We find that sensible heat exchange between the atmosphere and ocean is not accounted for in the atmospheric energy budget under IV, masking the connection between HS under IV and CC. Removing this term, a closer relationship emerges. We use observations in conjunction with this relationship to suggest an upward shift in the likely range of future HS (66% confidence interval: 2.00–2.36 W m -2 K -1

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Changing windstorm characteristics over the US Northeast in a single model large ensemble

Abstract Extreme windstorms pose a significant hazard to infrastructure and public safety, particularly in the highly populated US Northeast (NE). However, the influence climate change and changing land use will have on these events remains unclear. A large ensemble generated using the Max-Planck Institute (MPI) Earth system model is used to generate projections of NE windstorms under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and to attribute changes to projected land use land cover (LULC) change, externally forced changes and internal climate variability. To reduce the influence of coarse grid cell resolution and uncertainties in surface roughness lengths, windstorms are identified using simultaneous widespread exceedance of local 99th percentile 10 m wind speeds (U 99 ). Projected declines in forest cover in the NE and the resulting reductions in surface roughness length under SSP3-7.0 lead to projections of large increases in U 99 and derived windstorm intensity and scale. However, these projected changes in regional LULC under SSP3-7.0 are unprecedented in a historical context and may not be realistic. After corrections are applied to remove the influence of LULC on wind speeds, regionally averaged U 99 exhibit declines for most of the single model initial-condition large ensemble (SMILE) members which are broadly proportional to the radiative forcing and global air temperature increase in the SSPs, with a median value of −0.15 ms −1 °C −1 . While weak cyclones are projected to decline in frequency in the NE, intense cyclones and the resulting windstorms and indices of socioeconomic loss do not. Where present, significant trends in these loss indices are positive, and some MPI SMILE members generate future windstorms that are unprecedented in the historical period.

Coburn, Jacob (ORCID:0000000309538117)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impacts of the Large Seasonal Cycle of Upwelling Zone Sea Surface Temperatures on the Atmosphere

Abstract The amplitude of the annual cycle of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) within the tropics is the largest in the eastern Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Upwelling activity in these regions is maximum during late boreal summer and autumn, resulting in cool SSTs, and minimum in spring, leading to warm SSTs. The fundamental question of how this large seasonal cycle affects the atmosphere has received relatively little scientific attention. In this study, we use perturbed-SST experiments in an atmosphere model to identify the effects of the seasonal cycle of upwelling zone SSTs on the atmospheric state. Although annual-mean upwelling zone SSTs are cool, preventing their convective coupling with the free troposphere for much of the year, their boreal spring warmth can activate precipitating convection. We find that in this season, upwelling zone SSTs affect the atmosphere by 1) altering the intensity and position of the local intertropical convergence zone and 2) inducing a thermally forced Matsuno–Gill response, altering subtropical winds. On the seasonal time scale, the Atlantic upwelling zone is more effective than the Pacific in inducing this response. We also find that, consistent with prior work, the Pacific upwelling zone excites extratropical modes of internal atmospheric variability. Upwelling zone SSTs have remained poorly simulated through generations of climate models; our experiments allow us to diagnose the atmospheric biases that arise in response to upwelling zone SST biases. Our experiments show that upwelling zone SST biases are most impactful in boreal spring, particularly over the Atlantic.

Ramesh, Nandini↗
DOE OSTI2025

Distinctive Pattern of Global Warming in Ocean Heat Content

Abstract Huge heat anomalies in the atmosphere and ocean in recent years are not yet explained. Strong characteristic patterns in temperatures for upper layers of the ocean occurred from 2000 to 2023 in the presence of global warming from increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases. Here, we show that the deep tropics are warming, although sharply modulated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation events, with strong heating in the extratropics near 40°N and 40°–45°S but little heating near 20°N and 25°–30°S. The heating is most clearly manifested in zonal-mean ocean heat content and is evident in sea surface temperatures. The strongest heating is in the Southern Hemisphere, where aerosol effects are small. Estimates are made of the contributions to heating of top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation, atmospheric energy transports, surface fluxes of energy, and redistribution of energy by surface winds and ocean currents. The patterns of change are not directly related to TOA radiation but are evident in net surface energy fluxes and inferred ocean heat transports, underscoring their coupled origin. Changes in the atmospheric circulation through a poleward shift in ocean jet streams and storm tracks are reflected in surface wind-driven ocean Ekman transports. As well as human-induced climate change, internal natural variability is likely in play. Hence, the atmosphere and ocean currents are systematically redistributing heat from global warming, profoundly affecting local climates. Significance Statement As the climate changes, it has been difficult to discern meaningful patterns. Distinctive patterns of change have occurred in the ocean when examined as zonal averages around latitude bands. Most excess heat from global warming resides in the ocean and, since 2005, has become focused into bands near 40°N and 40°S, with little net warming in the subtropics. The strongest warming is in the Southern Hemisphere, although sea surface temperatures have increased more in the Northern Hemisphere. Changes in the atmospheric circulation through a poleward shift in the jet stream and storm tracks are primarily responsible along with corresponding changes in ocean currents. These changes are linked through surface exchanges of energy via heat, moisture, and wind stress.

Trenberth, Kevin E. [National Center for Atmospher↗
NASA NTRS1972

Mathematical characterization of mechanical behavior of porous frictional granular media

A new definition of loading and unloading along the yield surface of Roscoe and Burland is introduced. This is achieved by noting that the strain-hardening parameter in the plastic potential function is deduced from the yield locus equation of Roscoe and Burland. The analytical results are compared with the experimental results for plate-bearing and cone-penetrometer problems and close agreements are demonstrated. The wheel-soil interaction is studied under dynamic loading. The rate-dependent plasticity or viscoelastoplastic behavior is considered. This is accomplished by the internal (hidden) variables associated with time-dependent viscous properties directly superimposed with inelastic behavior governed by the yield criteria of Roscoe and Burland. Effects of inertia and energy dissipation are properly accounted for. Example problems are presented.

Chung, T. J.↗
NASA NTRS1986

A lumped parameter mathematical model for simulation of subsonic wind tunnels

Equations for a lumped parameter mathematical model of a subsonic wind tunnel circuit are presented. The equation state variables are internal energy, density, and mass flow rate. The circuit model is structured to allow for integration and analysis of tunnel subsystem models which provide functions such as control of altitude pressure and temperature. Thus the model provides a useful tool for investigating the transient behavior of the tunnel and control requirements. The model was applied to the proposed NASA Lewis Altitude Wind Tunnel (AWT) circuit and included transfer function representations of the tunnel supply/exhaust air and refrigeration subsystems. Both steady state and frequency response data are presented for the circuit model indicating the type of results and accuracy that can be expected from the model. Transient data for closed loop control of the tunnel and its subsystems are also presented, demonstrating the model's use as a control analysis tool.

Krosel, S. M.↗
NASA NTRS1988

A viscoplastic theory applied to copper

A phenomenologically based viscoplastic model is derived for copper. The model is thermodynamically constrained by the condition of material dissipativity. Two internal state variables are considered. The back stress accounts for strain-induced anisotropy, or kinematic hardening. The drag stress accounts for isotropic hardening. Static and dynamic recovery terms are not coupled in either evolutionary equation. The evolution of drag stress depends on static recovery, while the evolution of back stress depends on dynamic recovery. The material constants are determined from isothermal data. Model predictions are compared with experimental data for thermomechanical test conditions. They are in good agreement at the hot end of the loading cycle, but the model overpredicts the stress response at the cold end of the cycle.

Freed, Alan D.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Prediction and experimental observation of damage dependent damping in laminated composite beams

The equations of motion are developed for laminated composite beams with load-induced matrix cracking. The damage is accounted for by utilizing internal state variables. The net result of these variables on the field equations is the introduction of both enhanced damping, and degraded stiffness. Both quantities are history dependent and spatially variable, thus resulting in nonlinear equations of motion. It is explained briefly how these equations may be quasi-linearized for laminated polymeric composites under certain types of structural loading. The coupled heat conduction equation is developed, and it is shown that an enhanced Zener damping effect is produced by the introduction of microstructural damage. The resulting equations are utilized to demonstrate how damage dependent material properties may be obtained from dynamic experiments. Finaly, experimental results are compared to model predictions for several composite layups.

Allen, D. H.↗
NASA NTRS1989

A study of material damping in large space structures

A constitutive model was developed for predicting damping as a function of damage in continuous fiber reinforced laminated composites. The damage model is a continuum formulation, and uses internal state variables to quantify damage and its subsequent effect on material response. The model is sensitive to the stacking sequence of the laminate. Given appropriate baseline data from unidirectional material, and damping as a function of damage in one crossply laminate, damage can be predicted as a function of damage in other crossply laminates. Agreement between theory and experiment was quite good. A micromechanics model was also developed for examining the influence of damage on damping. This model explicitly includes crack surfaces. The model provides reasonable predictions of bending stiffness as a function of damage. Damping predictions are not in agreement with the experiment. This is thought to be a result of dissipation mechanisms such as friction, which are not presently included in the analysis.

Highsmith, A. L.↗
NASA NTRS1988

A cumulative damage model for continuous fiber composite laminates with matrix cracking and interply delaminations

The present cumulative damage model for the prediction of stiffness loss in graphite/epoxy laminates applies a thermomechanical constitutive theory for elastic composites with distributed damage. The model proceeds from a continuum mechanics and thermodynamics approach in which the distributed damage is characterized by a set of second-order tensor-valued internal state variables. A set of damage-dependent laminated plate equations is obtained; this is developed by modifying classical Kirchhoff plate theory.

Allen, David H.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Effect of microstructural damage on ply stresses in laminated composites

The mechanisms involved in damage and failure of laminated orthotropic composites are investigated theoretically. The continuum model developed accounts for both matrix cracks and interply delamination using second-order tensor-valued internal-state variables based on the locally averaged microcrack dynamics. The derivation of the model is given in detail, and numerical results for sample problems are presented in extensive graphs and tables. The model is shown to be effective in predicting stresses at the ply level, and significant damage-induced decreases in laminate stress states are found.

Allen, D. H.↗
NASA NTRS1990

A review of nonlinear constitutive models for metals

Over the past two decades a number of thermomechanical constitutive theories have been proposed for viscoplastic metals. These models are in most cases similar in that they utilize a set of internal state variables which provide locally averaged representations of microphysical phenomena such as dislocation rearrangement and grain boundary sliding. The state of development of several of these models is now at the point where accurate theoretical solutions can be obtained for a wide variety of structural problems at elevated temperatures. The fundamentals of viscoplasticity are briefly reviewed and a general framework is outlined. Several of the more prominent models are reviewed, and predictions from models are compared to experimental results.

Allen, David H.↗
NASA NTRS1991

On the thermodynamics of stress rate in the evolution of back stress in viscoplasticity

A thermodynamic foundation using the concept of internal state variables is presented for the kinematic description of a viscoplastic material. Three different evolution equations for the back stress are considered. The first is that of classical, nonlinear, kinematic hardening. The other two include a contribution that is linear in stress rate. Choosing an appropriate change in variables can remove this stress rate dependence. As a result, one of these two models is shown to be equivalent to the classical, kinematic hardening model; while the other is a new model, one which seems to have favorable characteristics for representing ratchetting behavior. All three models are thermodynamically admissible.

Freed, Alan D.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Viscoplastic analysis of an experimental cylindrical thrust chamber liner

A viscoplastic stress-strain analysis of an experimental cylindrical thrust chamber is presented. A viscoelastic constitutive model incorporating a single internal state variable that represents kinematic hardening was employed to investigate whether such a viscoplastic model could predict the experimentally observed behavior of the thrust chamber. Two types of loading cycles were considered: a short cycle of 3.5 sec. duration that corresponded to the experiments, and an extended loading cycle of 485.1 sec. duration that is typical of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) operating cycle. The analysis qualitatively replicated the deformation behavior of the component as observed in experiments designed to simulate SSME operating conditions. The analysis also showed that the mode and location in the component may depend on the loading cycle. The results indicate that using viscoplastic models for structural analysis can lead to a more realistic life assessment of thrust chambers.

Arya, Vinod K.↗
NASA NTRS1991

On the thermodynamic framework of generalized coupled thermoelastic-viscoplastic-damage modeling

A complete potential based framework using internal state variables is put forth for the derivation of reversible and irreversible constitutive equations. In this framework, the existence of the total (integrated) form of either the (Helmholtz) free energy or the (Gibbs) complementary free energy are assumed a priori. Two options for describing the flow and evolutionary equations are described, wherein option one (the fully coupled form) is shown to be over restrictive while the second option (the decoupled form) provides significant flexibility. As a consequence of the decoupled form, a new operator, i.e., the Compliance operator, is defined which provides a link between the assumed Gibb's and complementary dissipation potential and ensures a number of desirable numerical features, for example the symmetry of the resulting consistent tangent stiffness matrix. An important conclusion reached, is that although many theories in the literature do not conform to the general potential framework outlined, it is still possible in some cases, by slight modifications of the used forms, to restore the complete potential structure.

Arnold, S. M.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Thermomechanical deformation behavior of a dynamic strain aging alloy, Hastelloy X

An experimental study was performed to identify the effects of dynamic strain aging (solute drag) and metallurgical instabilities under thermomechanical loading conditions. The study involved a series of closely controlled thermomechanical deformation tests on the solid-solution-strenghened nickel-base superalloy, Hastelloy X. This alloy exhibits a strong isothermal strain aging peak at approximately 600 C, promoted by the effects of solute drag and precipitation hardening. Macroscopic thermomechanical hardening trends are correlated with microstructural characteristics through the use of transmission electron microscopy. These observations are compared and contrasted with isothermal conditions. Thermomechanical behavior unique to the isothermal database is identified and discussed. The microstructural characteristics were shown to be dominated by effects associated with the highest temperature of the thermomechanical cycle. Results indicate that the deformation behavior of Hastelloy X is thermomechanically path dependent. In addition, guidance is given pertaining to deformation modeling in the context of macroscopic unified theory. An internal state variable is formulated to qualitatively reflect the isotropic hardening trends identified in the TMD experiments.

Castelli, Michael G.↗
NASA NTRS1992

A differential CDM model for fatigue of unidirectional metal matrix composites

A multiaxial, isothermal, continuum damage mechanics (CDM) model for fatigue of a unidirectional metal matrix composite volume element is presented. The model is phenomenological, stress based, and assumes a single scalar internal damage variable, the evolution of which is anisotropic. The development of the fatigue damage model, (i.e., evolutionary law) is based on the definition of an initially transversely isotropic fatigue limit surface, a static fracture surface, and a normalized stress amplitude function. The anisotropy of these surfaces and function, and therefore the model, is defined through physically meaningful invariants reflecting the local stress and material orientation. This transversely isotropic model is shown, when taken to it's isotropic limit, to directly simplify to a previously developed and validated isotropic fatigue continuum damage model. Results of a nondimensional parametric study illustrate (1) the flexibility of the present formulation in attempting to characterize a class of composite materials, and (2) the capability of the formulation in predicting anticipated qualitative trends in the fatigue behavior of unidirectional metal matrix composites. Also, specific material parameters representing an initial characterization of the composite system SiC/Ti 15-3 and the matrix material (Ti 15-3) are reported.

Arnold, S. M.↗