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At least 217 records · Page 12

On the sensitivity of complex, internally coupled systems

A method is presented for computing sensitivity derivatives with respect to independent (input) variables for complex, internally coupled systems, while avoiding the cost and inaccuracy of finite differencing performed on the entire system analysis. The method entails two alternative algorithms: the first is based on the classical implicit function theorem formulated on residuals of governing equations, and the second develops the system sensitivity equations in a new form using the partial (local) sensitivity derivatives of the output with respect to the input of each part of the system. A few application examples are presented to illustrate the discussion.

Sobieszczanskisobieski, Jaroslaw↗

Sensitivity of complex, internally coupled systems

A method is presented for computing sensitivity derivatives with respect to independent (input) variables for complex, internally coupled systems, while avoiding the cost and inaccuracy of finite differencing performed on the entire system analysis. The method entails two alternative algorithms: the first is based on the classical implicit function theorem formulated on residuals of governing equations, and the second develops the system sensitivity equations in a new form using the partial (local) sensitivity derivatives of the output with respect to the input of each part of the system. A few application examples are presented to illustrate the discussion.

Sobieszczanski-Sobieski, Jaroslaw↗

On the adequacy of the fixed locations of the surface-based international network for inferring interannual ozone variability

The influence of the geographical distribution and the number of the surface stations in the ozone detecting network on changes in global ozone inferred from the surface measurements is investigated by comparison with information obtained from satellite backscattered UV observations on the Nimbus 4 with nearly complete global coverage for the period 1970-1972. Results show that the geographical distribution of the stations does not properly represent different latitudes. While the number of stations in the north temperate zone appears adequate to represent monthly ozone averages to within 0.5% except during the early phase of the Northern Hemisphere spring maximum, the resultant error in the derived change in north temperature zone ozone between 1970-1972 is 0.5%. In the tropical and south temperate zones the smaller number of stations reduces precision, and the ozone averages for use in deriving seasonal variability and trends are uncertain by about 1%. However, in the south temperature zone, the average from the sample may differ as much as 5% in some months from the averages derived from the full set. It is concluded that the resulting uncertainty in the global averages is comparable in size to typical yearly changes.

Heath, D. F.↗

New Local, National and Regional Cereal Price Indices for Improved Identification of Food Insecurity

Large price increases over a short time period can be indicative of a deteriorating food security situation. Food price indices developed by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) are used to monitor food price trends at a global level, but largely reflect supply and demand conditions in export markets. However, reporting by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID)'s Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) indicates that staple cereal prices in many markets of the developing world, especially in surplus-producing areas, often have a delayed and variable response to international export market price trends. Here we present new price indices compiled for improved food security monitoring and assessment, and specifically for monitoring conditions of food access across diverse food insecure regions. We found that cereal price indices constructed using market prices within a food insecure region showed significant differences from the international cereals price, and had a variable price dispersion across markets within each marketshed. Using satellite-derived remote sensing information that estimates local production and the FAO Cereals Index as predictors, we were able to forecast movements of the local or national price indices in the remote, arid and semi-arid countries of the 38 countries examined. This work supports the need for improved decision-making about targeted aid and humanitarian relief, by providing earlier early warning of food security crises.

Brown, Molly E.↗

IUE observations of cataclysmic variable

Twenty two approved International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) programs were studied over a 14 year period. These programs are listed. The observations and subsequent analysis centered on cataclysmic variables (close binaries with a late main sequence star transferring material to a primary white dwarf via an accretion disk). The early studies highlighted the flux distribution of the accretion disk at outburst and quiescence, while later studies accomplished time-resolved observations throughout the orbital cycles, the study of the outflowing winds present at outburst, the study of the white dwarf in those systems with low accretion rate. There are 39 publications resulting from this work which are listed. These results include those for individual systems (Stepanian's star, Lanning 10, AM Her, MV Lyr, TV Col, VW Hyi, T Leo, IR Gem, TT Ari, Z Cam, BV Pup, IP Peg, PG1030+590, V1315 Aql, SW UMa, V426 Oph, WZ Sge, BY Cam, and U Gem) as well as review articles in journals and publications from reviews at meetings that summarize the impact of IUE on the study of accretion disks, white dwarfs, and hot spots resulting from stream impact as well as magnetic accretion columns.

Szkody, Paula↗

Internal Dynamics and Boundary Forcing Characteristics Associated with Interannual Variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon

In this paper, we present a description of the internal dynamics and boundary forcing characteristics of two major components of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), i.e., the South Asian (SAM) and the Southeast-East Asian monsoon (SEAM). The description is based on a new monsoon-climate paradigm in which the variability of ASM is considered as the outcome of the interplay of a "fast" and an "intermediate" monsoon subsystem, under the influenced of the "slow" varying external forcings. Two sets of regional monsoon indices derived from dynamically consistent rainfall and wind data are used in this study. For SAM, the internal dynamics is represented by that of a "classical" monsoon system where the anomalous circulation is governed by Rossby-wave dynamics, i.e., generation of anomalous vorticity induced by an off-equatorial heat source is balanced by planetary vorticity advection. On the other hand, the internal dynamics of SEAM is characterized by a "hybrid" monsoon system featuring multi-cellular meridional circulation over the East Asian section, extending from the deep tropics to midlatitudes. These meridional-cells link tropical heating to extratropical circulation system via the East Asian jetstream, and are responsible for the characteristic occurrences of zonally oriented anomalous rainfall patterns over East Asian and the subtropical western Pacific. In the extratropical regions, the major upper level vorticity balance is by anomalous vorticity advection and generation by the anomalous divergent circulation. A consequence of this is that compared to SAM, the SEAM is associated with stronger teleconnection patterns to regions outside the ASM. A strong SAM is linked to basin-scale sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuation with significant signal in the equatorial eastern Pacific. During the boreal spring SST warming in the Arabian Sea and the subtropical western Pacific may lead to a strong SAM. For SEAM, interannual variability is tied to SSTA over the Sea of Japan and the South China Sea regions, while the linkage to equatorial basin-scale SSTA is weak at best. A large scale SSTA dipole with warming (cooling) in the subtropical central (eastern) Pacific foreshadows a strong SEAM.

Lau, K.- M.↗

Large-Scale Circulation and Climate Variability

The causes of regional climate trends cannot be understood without considering the impact of variations in large-scale atmospheric circulation and an assessment of the role of internally generated climate variability. There are contributions to regional climate trends from changes in large-scale latitudinal circulation, which is generally organized into three cells in each hemisphere-Hadley cell, Ferrell cell and Polar cell-and which determines the location of subtropical dry zones and midlatitude jet streams. These circulation cells are expected to shift poleward during warmer periods, which could result in poleward shifts in precipitation patterns, affecting natural ecosystems, agriculture, and water resources. In addition, regional climate can be strongly affected by non-local responses to recurring patterns (or modes) of variability of the atmospheric circulation or the coupled atmosphere-ocean system. These modes of variability represent preferred spatial patterns and their temporal variation. They account for gross features in variance and for teleconnections which describe climate links between geographically separated regions. Modes of variability are often described as a product of a spatial climate pattern and an associated climate index time series that are identified based on statistical methods like Principal Component Analysis (PC analysis), which is also called Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis (EOF analysis), and cluster analysis.

Perlwitz, J.↗

International Ultraviolet Explorer observations of the peculiar variable spectrum of the eclipsing binary R Arae

The eclipsing binary system R Arae = HD 149730 is a relatively bright southern system with an orbital period of about 4.4 days. It is a single-lined spectroscopic binary. The spectral class of the primary component is B9 Vp. The system was included in a study of mass flow and evolution in close binary systems using the International Ultraviolet Explorer satellite (IUE). Four spectra in the wavelength range from 1150 to 1900 A were obtained with the far-ultraviolet SWP camera, and six spectra in the range from 1900 to 3200 range were obtained with the mid-ultraviolet LWR camera. The close binary R Arae exhibits very unusual ultraviolet spectra. It appears that no other close binary system, observed with any of the orbiting satellites, shows outside-eclipse ultraviolet continuum flux variations of this nature.

Mccluskey, G. E.↗

Techno-Political Space Cooperation: A Longitudinal Analysis of NASA's Bilateral and Multilateral Agreements

NASA's international programs are both numerous and successful, with over two thousand international agreements forming a foundation of U.S. government cooperation that involved over half the United Nation's membership. Previous research, by the author, into these agreements has identified five variables underlying NASA's international cooperation efforts and these variables form a framework for explaining international cooperation behavior on a macro-level. This paper builds upon that research to effectively explain lower-level patterns of cooperation in NASA's experience. Two approaches for analyzing the space agency's history are used: aggregation of all agreements and a cluster (disaggregated) analysis of four key segments. While researchers of NASA's international cooperation often considered individual cases first, and then generalize to macro-level explanations. This study, in contrast, begins by considering all agreements together in order to explain as much as possible at the macro level before proceeding to lower tier explanations. These lower tier assessments are important to understanding regional and political influences on bilateral and multilateral cooperation. In order to accomplish this lower-tier analysis, the 2000 agreements are disaggregated into logical groupings enabling an analysis of important questions and clearer focus on key patterns concerning developing states, such as the role of international institutions or privatization on international cooperation in space technology.

Hudiburg, John J.↗

A natural conservative flux difference splitting for the hyperbolic systems of gasdynamics

Gasdynamic hyperbolic systems are treated by a novel conservative flux difference splitting upwind method which is applicable to explicit or implicit and iterative or direct schemes, for marching in time or space with the Euler or compressible Navier-Stokes equations. The method is able to capture sharp shocks correctly by maintaining global conservation. The embedded characteristics formulation is cast in the volumetric internal energy primitive variable, which is effective for real as well as perfect gases. Higher order upwind formulae are constructed from the distribution of pieces of the simple internal flux difference splitting, and the method reverts to first order at the appropriate points in order not to violate the domain of dependence by differencing across discontinuities. At insignificant computational overhead, switching is done by simple algebraic extensions of the truth functions that determine upwind direction for the first order scheme.

Lombard, C. K.↗

Multi-attribute subjective evaluations of manual tracking tasks vs. objective performance of the human operator

A computational method to deal with the multidimensional nature of tracking and/or monitoring tasks is developed. Operator centered variables, including the operator's perception of the task, are considered. Matrix ratings are defined based on multidimensional scaling techniques and multivariate analysis. The method consists of two distinct steps: (1) to determine the mathematical space of subjective judgements of a certain individual (or group of evaluators) for a given set of tasks and experimental conditionings; and (2) to relate this space with respect to both the task variables and the objective performance criteria used. Results for a variety of second-order trackings with smoothed noise-driven inputs indicate that: (1) many of the internally perceived task variables form a nonorthogonal set; and (2) the structure of the subjective space varies among groups of individuals according to the degree of familiarity they have with such tasks.

Siapkaras, A.↗

Low Earth Orbit Plasma Variability Model

The empirical International Reference Ionosphere is a widely used model for estimating low Earth orbit plasma characteristics for use in spacecraft design and mission analysis. The climatological model provides mean values of plasma density, temperature, composition, and other ionospheric parameters that can be used to estimate the average magnitude of spacecraft charging, current collection for electrodynamic tethers, and other effects on spacecraft design. Mean IRI parameters are not adequate to answer questions such as what is the maximum or minimum value of the spacecraft potential, does the maximum spacecraft potential exceed a program requirement, will an electrodynamic tether provide adequate drag to deorbit a satellite at end of life, and will the tether provide sufficient thrust to reboost a spacecraft at any time in the solar cycle. These questions require estimates of the variability of the ionospheric environment about the mean values. This presentation describes the status of work at MSFC to develop an empirical ionospheric variability model that can be used in conjunction with the climatological IRI model to provide both mean ionospheric parameters and variations of the environment about the mean. Our technique will use an extensive database of satellite and radar observations of the electron density and temperature to derive variances of the data about the model values. The variances will then be incorporated into Fortran wrapper software that calls the IRI-2001 model and provides statistical estimates of the deviation of the environment about the mean IRI values. We will provide an update on the state of the database development and provide examples of analysis and modeling efforts completed specifically for an International Space Station application.

Minow, Joseph I.↗

Internal waves in the Gulf of California - Observations from a spaceborne radar

Pronounced signatures of internal waves were detected repeatedly in the Gulf of California by the Seasat synthetic aperture radar (SAR). A series of nine images with exactly repeating ground coverage was used to study the temporal variability of the internal wave field in the area. It was found that the number of observed wave groups was highly correlated with the strength of the local tides: the maximum number occurred during spring tides and the minimum number occurred during neap tides, indicating that the internal waves were tidally forced. Most of the wave activity was found to the north of 28 deg N where the tides were the strongest in the Gulf. The application of a simple, nonlinear internal wave model to the observations indicated that the peak-to-peak amplitude of the observed waves was about 50 m with an uncertainty of a factor of 2. The estimated upper bound for the rate of the loss of tidal energy to internal waves was about 5 x 10 to the 15th erg/s, representing only 10 percent of the rate of the dissipation of the dominant M2 tide in the Gulf.

Fu, L.-L.↗

LAI Assimilation Schedules to Constrain Uncertain Cultivars and Soils in CERES-Maize

In anticipation of large-domain crop model applications where precise local configuration and calibration is not possible, we describe benefits and potential drawbacks of employing a crop pest module to achieve leaf area index (LAI) assimilation into a high performing CERES-Maize crop model configuration at a field experiment site in Perry, Iowa. Simulation experiments explore the use of MODIS satellite-derived LAI to constrain and adjust LAI to counter imprecise cultivar and soil configurations often occurring in the absence of high-quality local information. Simulations using single-day, window, and continuous LAI replacement across 5 cultivars and 2 soil calibration approaches for nine corn rotation years from 2004 to 2020 led to different yield outcomes and reverberations throughout the field environment. Evaluating variance and mean bias, results indicate minimal interventions in early vegetative and grain-filling stages were more beneficial than use of continuous LAI adjustments, as they minimized disruptions to the internal resource balances governing plant stresses and grain production. LAI adjustment was particularly helpful in constraining growth related to uncertain thermal unit requirements and leaf tip appearance rates (P1 and PHINT cultivar parameters, respectively). Findings underscore the need to assimilate additional state variables to ensure internal biophysical coherence. This approach shows promise for applications spanning wider domains with prediction time pressure where detailed configuration, more complex assimilation methods, or recalibration of crop model parameters may not be practical.

Phenology↗

Effects of state recovery on creep buckling under variable loading

Structural alloys embody internal mechanisms that allow recovery of state with varying stress and elevated temperature, i.e., they can return to a softer state following periods of hardening. Such material behavior is known to strongly influence structural response under some important thermomechanical loadings, for example, that involving thermal ratchetting. The influence of dynamic and thermal recovery on the creep buckling of a column under variable loading is investigated. The column is taken as the idealized (Shanley) sandwich column. The constitutive model, unlike the commonly employed Norton creep model, incorporates a representation of both dynamic and thermal (state) recovery. The material parameters of the constitutive model are chosen to characterize Narloy Z, a representative copper alloy used in thrust nozzle liners of reusable rocket engines. Variable loading histories include rapid cyclic unloading/reloading sequences and intermittent reductions of load for extended periods of time; these are superimposed on a constant load. The calculated results show that state recovery significantly affects creep buckling under variable loading. Structural alloys embody internal mechanisms that allow recovery of state with varying stress and time.

Robinson, D. N.↗

A laboratory measurement of CCD photometric and dimensional stability

The sun exhibits periodic and quasi-periodic variability in its total luminosity, which provides information about its internal structure and dynamics. Variability ranges from a few minutes to many-year time scales, with amplitudes as small as a few ppm in the milliHz band. Extension of this analysis to a large sample of outer stars would be interesting: a panoramic detector such as a CCD could record many stars at once. To meet this objective, a ppm time-series differential precision is required. Laboratory CCD photometric measurements presented here are promising for such an instrument. Normalizing the response from a portion of the CCD area removes most of the individual-frame variability. When a trend attributed to a thermal transient in the CCD dewar is removed, the individual-frame photometric precision is about 0.0001, limited by photoelectron counting statistics. The time-series power spectrum is flat within the desired frequency domain. Analysis of the dimensional stability of the CCD within the same data set indicates better than ppm performance, when first-order bulk motion and magnification changes are removed.

Buffington, Andrew↗

The structure of short gravity waves on the ocean surface

A brief review is given of the salient properties of short gravity waves and the way in which their structure is modified by longer waves or swell, by variable currents, and by internal waves. It is noted that an underlying swell produces a mottled pattern in synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery, and an expression is derived giving the fractional modulation in backscattering cross section of the ocean surface in terms of the slope of an underlying swell, the wind direction, and the direction of swell propagation relative to the angle of observation. The expression provides the possibility in appropriate circumstances of estimating the swell slope by remote sensing, in addition to the wavelength and direction of propagation, which can be measured directly from the imagery. An account is also given of the refraction of waves in variable currents and internal waves.

Phillips, O. M.↗