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At least 217 records · Page 12

Integrating LEO and GEO Observations: Toward Optimal Summertime Satellite Precipitation Retrieval

Abstract Reliable quantitative precipitation estimation with a rich spatiotemporal resolution is vital for understanding the Earth’s hydrological cycle. Precipitation estimation over land and coastal regions is necessary for addressing the high degree of spatial heterogeneity of water availability and demand, and for resolving the extremes that modulate and amplify hazards such as flooding and landslides. Advancements in computation power along with unique high spatiotemporal and spectral resolution data streams from passive meteorological sensors aboard geosynchronous Earth-orbiting (GEO) and low Earth-orbiting (LEO) satellites offer exciting opportunities to retrieve information about surface precipitation phenomena using data-driven machine learning techniques. In this study, the capabilities of U-Net–like architecture are investigated to map instantaneous, summertime surface precipitation intensity at the spatial resolution of 2 km. The calibrated brightness temperature products from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) radiometer are combined with multispectral images (visible, near-infrared, and infrared bands) from the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) aboard the GOES-R satellites as main inputs to the U-Net–like precipitation algorithm. Total precipitable water and 2-m temperature from the Global Forecast System (GFS) model are also used as auxiliary inputs to the model. The results show that the U-Net–like algorithm can capture fine-scale patterns and intensity of surface precipitation at high spatial resolution over stratiform and convective precipitation regimes. The evaluations reveal the potential of extracting relevant, high spatial features over complex surface types such as mountainous regions and coastlines. The algorithm allows users to interpret the inputs’ importance and can serve as a starting point for further exploration of precipitation systems within the field of hydrometeorology.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Kilauea Magnetotelluric Dataset

In 2002 and 2003 a collaborative effort was undertaken between Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Sandia National Laboratories, the USGS Menlo Park, the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, and Electromagnetic Instruments Inc. to study the Kilauea volcano in Hawaii using the magnetotelluric (MT) technique. The work was motivated by a desire to improve understanding of the magma reservoirs and conduits within Kilauea and the East and Southwest Rift zones, which has implications for understanding Kilaueas plumbing system. An improved understanding of the rift zones has implications in understanding large-scale landslides that are generated in the Hilina Slump, which produce significant impacts on coastal communities. Up to eight stations operated simultaneously, with multiple remote reference sites, and data were processed using multi-station robust processing techniques. In total, data were acquired at 70 sites over the Southwest and East rift zones. Good to excellent quality data were obtained even in the harshest conditions, such as those encountered on the fresh lava flows of the East Rift Zone (ERZ), where electrical contact resistances are on the order of 100 kOhm. This data supports the continuing efforts to increase geothermal power on the island of Hawaii. Each of the 70 EDI files are the MT impedance tensors for 1 site. There is also a description of the processing of the data and a site map showing the locations of each site.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Solute chemistry for streams draining geomorphic features and varying land cover gradients in the East River watershed, Colorado

This dataset contains solute chemistry data and GPS coordinates for surface water samples collected in the East River watershed in the Elk and West Elk Ranges of Colorado from August 3rd through August 11th, 2022. Samples were collected from streams and groundwater seeps as part of a comprehensive analysis within the watershed of how different geomorphic features (such as landslides and rock glaciers) along with variations in land cover (such as the presence of vegetation) affect stream water quality in this Rocky Mountain headwater environment. This dataset includes concentrations of the following in a single csv file: fluoride, chloride, sulfate, nitrate, calcium, potassium, magnesium, sodium, silicon, and total organic carbon (TOC). All concentrations are reported in mg/L. The sulfate data in this version have been updated to account for an earlier ion chromatograph instrument method error whereby sulfate and bromide peaks overlapped in calibration solution samples, biasing calculated sulfate concentrations low by 30-50%. Sulfate data reported herein are from a re-run of the samples performed in December 2024 using a corrected instrument method. All samples were stored under refrigerated conditions and filtered on initial collection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing the Expansion of Ground-Motion Sensing Capability in Smart Cities via Internet Fiber-Optic Infrastructure

Monitoring ground motion in smart cities can improve the public safety by providing critical insights on natural and anthropogenic hazards, for example, earthquakes, landslides, explosions, infrastructure failures, and so forth. Although seismic activity is typically measured using dedicated point sensors (e.g., geophones and accelerometers), techniques such as distributed acoustic sensing have demonstrated the utility of using fiber-optic cable to detect seismic activity over comparable distances. In this article, we present the results of a study that quantifies the expansion in an area monitored for low-amplitude ground-motion events by augmenting existing point sensors with the internet fiber-optic cable infrastructure. Here we begin by describing our methodology, which utilizes geospatial data on point sensors and internet optical fiber deployed in metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the United States. We extend these data to identify the area that can be monitored by (1) considering the observed seismic noise data in target locations, (2) applying the model from Wilson et al. (2021) to understand the potential coverage area gains using optical fiber sensing, and (3) optimizing the selection of fiber segments to maximize coverage and minimize deployment costs. We implement our methodology in ArcGIS to assess the additional area that can be monitored for low-amplitude ground-motion events (i.e., magnitude >0.5) by utilizing internet fiber-optic cables in the 100 most populous MSAs in the United States. We find that the addition of internet fiber-based sensors in MSAs would increase the area monitored on average by over an order of magnitude from 1% to 12%, if the subset of fiber cable segments that maximize coverage and minimize deployment costs is chosen even if only 20% of all fibers are used.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Ocean & Geohazard Analysis Tool

The Ocean & Geohazard Analysis (OGA) software tool is designed to summarize insights into key offshore hazards drawing from a diverse set of approaches, including artificial intelligence, machine learning, probabilistic and statistical, and offshore data sources. The offshore hazards that can be analyzed include submarine landslides, extreme wind/wave/current event probabilities, earthquakes, and metocean pathways (CIAM Climatological Isolation and Attraction Model–Climatological Lagrangian Coherent Structures - Submissions - EDX (doe.gov)). Currently, the tool is developed for use in the Gulf of Mexico. The data underlying the offshore hazard analyses can be found here: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/gulf-of-mexico-risk-analysis-database-gomrad This work was conducted under the Advanced Offshore Research Portfolio, FWP Number 1022409 at National Energy Technology Laboratory, U.S. Dept. of Energy. Disclaimer This project was funded by the United States Department of Energy, National Energy Technology Laboratory, in part, through a site support contract. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, nor the support contractor, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof.

AIML↗

A Methodological Overview of Seismic Analysis for Nuclear Event Detection

Underground explosions generate potentially detectable signatures, including energy waves that travel through the Earth’s subsurface (i.e., seismic waves), low-frequency sound waves (i.e., infrasound and hydroacoustic waves), and radioactive gases and/or particles that might leak from the test cavity (if the event was nuclear). There can also be intelligence indicators of a test, such as observations of modified patterns of life and activity at a suspected test site. If all of these detectable signatures and intelligence indicators are present and self-consistent, then analysts have high confidence in classifying a signature generating event as an explosion. However, because only partial information about an event is likely to be available, determining whether an event was natural (e.g., an earthquake or landslide) or manmade (e.g., a chemical or nuclear explosion) is much more challenging. This primer describes how one category of event signatures—seismic signatures—can augment event analyses. While universities and government organizations have generated detailed technical descriptions of seismic analytic techniques, we seek to translate seismic event analysis for a broad, non-technical audience. When the geologic conditions near an event are well-characterized, seismic data can be used to calculate critical information, such as event location and depth, with relatively high accuracy. Moreover, specific features within seismic datasets can help determine whether an event was an explosion. However, a key challenge in seismic analysis is that geologic site conditions are often poorly characterized, complicating the ability to discern the true nature of the event. To overcome this challenge, geologists answer a series of questions (discussed in section 1) to guide seismic event analysis and determine the most probable nature of an event. As more information is gathered during each analytic step, confidence grows regarding the nature of the event. Section 2 addresses uncertainties in seismic analysis and the vital nature of high-fidelity geologic data for accurate seismic event analysis.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Distributed Acoustic Sensing as a Monitoring Tool at LANL [Slides]

DAS records a variety of signals, including (1) earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, (2) explosions (DAG, mining, etc.), (3) acoustic waves, (4) ocean (waves, whales), (5) vehicle, ship and pedestrian traffic, (6) glaciology and landslides, and (7) oil and gas. Main questions include: (1) what is the extent of the signal content? (2) how does DAS compare to traditional sensors? (3) how do interrogators, fiber types, and fiber depth burials impact measurements? (4) special applications offshore to overcome the lack of instrumentation.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Remote Sensing Approach for Monitoring Tree Health Adjacent to Transmission Corridors

This study presents an initial proof-of-concept for a satellite-based remote sensing approach to identify and monitor potential areas of poor tree health across the entire BPA service territory on an annual basis. We tested three variants of “delta peak NDVI” ( ΔPN ) change detection metrics that express interannual variation in primary productivity relative to a baseline by comparing ΔPN values for known insect/disease disturbances and nearby reference locations. All three metrics showed promise for detecting poor tree health in the year during disturbance, but the metric based on the difference from the long-term (2016-2024) median ( Δ Med PN ) was preferred due to its responsiveness to change in the years during and after disturbance, resilience to interannual variation, and ease of interpretation as being above or below normal. Comparison of Δ Med PN grouped by relative severity of disturbance indicated it was not sensitive enough to detect “low” severity disturbances, as mapped by USGS’s LANDFIRE program, but could distinguish “moderate” and “high” severity disturbances from reference locations. These findings informed selection of a threshold for Δ Med PN , which was combined with areas exhibiting negative NDVI to map potential areas of concern. Visual inspection of before/after high-resolution imagery and NDVI time series showed that many areas of concern aligned with visible signs of defoliation and die-off as well as other types of disturbance (e.g., landslides, logging, road grading, flooding). Some areas of concern are thought to be false detections caused by persistent shadow, and some could not be explained with visual inspection due to spatiotemporal limitations of before/after imagery. In summary, our approach shows promise for large-scale monitoring of tree health adjacent to BPA transmission lines, but additional work is recommended to improve model sophistication and remove noise.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

CLEAP Project: OR-SAGE Analysis for MT, UT, and CO States

The OR-SAGE tool is designed to use industry-accepted practices in screening sites and then employ the proper array of data sources through the considerable computational capabilities of GIS technology available at ORNL. The tool was developed to screen the potential for NPP siting on a national and regional basis. However, because of the tool granularity, it is often focused specifically on the immediate area around user sites of interest. If data center siting parameters can be added to OR-SAGE, the ability to evaluate data center siting on a localized scale will be beneficial.1 More than 60 data sets have been collected and processed by ORNL to develop exclusionary, avoidance, and suitability criteria for screening sites for a variety of power generation types, including nuclear power plants. Available site evaluation parameters include population density, slope, seismic activity, proximity to cooling-water sources, proximity to hazard facilities, avoidance of protected lands and floodplains, susceptibility to landslide hazards, and many others. All siting parameters should be considered as flags to inform siting decisions and should not be used to rule in or rule out any NPP site. Once data center siting parameters are identified, appropriate data sets will be collected and processed. The OR-SAGE process is very versatile. Essentially, OR-SAGE is a visual, relational database. The database partitions the contiguous United States, a total of 720 million hectares (~1.8 billion acres), into 100-m by 100-m (1 hectare or ~2.5 acre) cells. The database is tracking just under 700 million individual land cells. Successive suitability criterion is applied to each cell in the database. User-specified thresholds can be applied to each siting parameter data layer. In this manner, a variety of scenarios can be quickly and thoroughly evaluated. Data can be added and/or revised within OR-SAGE to address user interests. Siting security assessment capability is currently being added to OR-SAGE. Security is expected to be of concern at data centers whether it is collocated with a nuclear power generating technology or not. If data center is collocated with a nuclear power generating source, the security threat attractiveness level of both will likely increase. It will be of additional benefit if a potential data center site is also assessed for security vulnerability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Leveraging ARM Data to Improve Models for Predictive Understanding of Energy and Security Challenges

Extreme weather and natural hazards can disrupt the energy sector, affecting demand, generation, transmission, distribution, consumption and operational planning at regional and national scales. These disruptions stem from a broad range of atmospheric phenomena, including winter storms, freezing rain, wet snow loading, severe convection, flooding and landslides, wildfires, prolonged heat, and drought. Many of these same phenomena can also affect national security through impacts to transportation and infrastructure. To support the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) focus on energy resilience and national security, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility is uniquely positioned to contribute measurement data, analyses, and modeling frameworks that can significantly improve predictive understanding of these hazards to mitigate their effects. To explore this opportunity, ARM convened a two-part virtual workshop in November 2025. The workshop engaged interdisciplinary experts in atmospheric science, energy systems, modeling, and operations. The goal of the meeting was to engage with these interdisciplinary experts to address three questions: • What are examples of atmospheric processes that represent significant risks to energy security or national security and where are those risks greatest? • What measurements or measurement strategies would improve ARM’s capacity to address these issues? • How can ARM and users of the ARM facility better work with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and multi-sector modeling communities to apply ARM data to improving E3SM simulations of these phenomena? Participants were asked to submit white papers ahead of the meeting to initiate thinking on these themes and to help organize discussions. Workshop sessions were then organized around themes identified in the white papers. First from the white papers and then through subsequent discussions, workshop participants identified many examples that address the three questions listed above. Participants called out energy system vulnerabilities to weather phenomena such as the impact of freezing rain, strong winds, and excessive heat on power grids. They also noted the effects that weather phenomena could have on energy demand or supply (e.g., through effects of extreme temperatures). They called out security vulnerabilities such as impacts to crops from aerosol-borne pathogens and risks to industry due to melting permafrost in the Arctic. In all, over a dozen meteorological phenomena were linked to energy or security vulnerabilities. For many of the identified phenomena, participants pointed out where ARM was well poised to address issues (e.g., through measurements of cloud microphysics to inform studies of freezing rain) but also noted needs for additional measurements or modified measurement strategies. For example, adaptive scanning of severe weather would be valuable for probing winter storms or severe convection. Participants pointed out the value in integrating external observations with ARM measurements and with applying artificial intelligence (AI) to ARM observation analysis and they advocated for using model simulations to help optimize measurement strategies through Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs). It was clear from the workshop that there are many ways that ARM observations can be used to mitigate energy and security concerns, but meeting participants were also asked to identify what they considered to be the greatest opportunities by ranking issues pertaining to the three workshop questions. This was accomplished through a survey administered to participants between the two virtual sessions. The highest-priority phenomena identified were winter storms, severe convection, and arctic processes. Discussion in the second session, therefore, focused primarily on these three areas, which were most fully developed in exploring ARM opportunities. Nevertheless, it was also clear that ARM has opportunities to contribute to all the identified topics. This report describes the workshop, including input from discussion and white papers (Sections 2 and 3) and a list of priority recommendations (section 4). Many other ideas for ARM contributions are discussed in individual white papers (Appendix D).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Fracture Network Localization Preceding Catastrophic Failure in Triaxial Compression Experiments on Rocks

We quantify the spatial distribution of fracture networks throughout six in situ X-ray tomography triaxial compression experiments on crystalline rocks at confining stresses of 5–35 MPa in order to quantify how fracture development controls the final macroscopic failure of the rock, a process analogous to those that control geohazards such as earthquakes and landslides. Tracking the proportion of the cumulative volume of fractures with volumes >90th percentile to the total fracture volume, ∑ v 90 / v t o t indicates that the fracture networks tend to increase in localization toward these largest fractures for up to 80% of the applied differential stress. The evolution of this metric also matches the evolution of the Gini coefficient, which measures the deviation of a population from uniformity. These results are consistent with observations of localizing low magnitude seismicity before large earthquakes in southern California. In both this analysis and the present work, phases of delocalization interrupt the general increase in localization preceding catastrophic failure, indicating that delocalization does not necessarily indicate a reduction of seismic hazard. However, the proportion of the maximum fracture volume to the total fracture volume does not increase monotonically. Experiments with higher confining stress tend to experience greater localization. To further quantify localization, we compare the geometry of the largest fractures, with volumes >90th percentile, to the best fit plane through these fractures immediately preceding failure. The r 2 scores and the mean distance of the fractures to the plane indicate greater localization in monzonite than in granite. The smaller mean mineral diameter and lower confining stress in the granite experiments may contribute to this result. Tracking these various metrics of localization reveals a close association between macroscopic yielding and the acceleration of fracture network localization. Near yielding, ∑ v 90 / v t o t and the Gini coefficient increase while the mean distance to the final failure plane decreases. Macroscopic yielding thus occurs when the rate of fracture network localization increases.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Life Expectancy of Evaporating Capillary Bridges Predicted by Tertiary Creep Modeling

The evaporation of capillary bridges is experimentally investigated at the microscale through a three-grain capillary cluster. This setting provides the minimum viable description of Haines jumps during evaporation, that is, capillary instabilities stemming from air entry into a saturated granular material. The displacement profile of a meniscus is obtained via digital image correlation for different grain materials, geometries, and separations. While it is well known that Haines jumps are triggered at the pore throat, we find that these instabilities are of three types depending on the separation. We also provide a temporal characterization of Haines jumps; we find that they are accurately described, as tertiary creep instabilities, by Voight’s relation, similarly to landslides and volcanic eruptions. This finding extends the description of capillary instabilities beyond their onset predicted by Laplace equilibrium. Our contribution also paves the way for a microscopically-informed description of desiccation cracks, of which Haines jumps are the precursors.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

A New Method for High Resolution Surface Change Detection: Data Collection and Validation of Measurements from UAS at the Nevada National Security Site, Nevada, USA

The use of uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) increases the opportunities for detecting surface changes in remote areas and in challenging terrain. Detecting surface topographic changes offers an important constraint for understanding earthquake damage, groundwater depletion, effects of mining, and other events. For these purposes, changes on the order of 5–10 cm are readily detected, but sometimes it is necessary to detect smaller changes. An example is the surface changes that result from underground explosions, which can be as small as 3 cm. Previous studies that described change detection methodologies were generally not aimed at detecting sub-5-cm changes. Additionally, studies focused on high-fidelity accuracy were either computationally modeled or did not fully provide the necessary examples to highlight the usability of these workflows. Detecting changes at this threshold may be critical in certain applications, such as global security research and monitoring for high-consequence natural hazards, including landslides. Here we provide a detailed description of the methodology we used to detect 2–3 cm changes in an important applied research setting—surface changes related to underground explosions. This methodology improves the accuracy of change detection data collection and analysis through the optimization of pre-field planning, surveying, flight operations, and post-processing the collected data, all of which are critical to obtaining the highest output data resolution possible. We applied this methodology to a field study location, collecting 1.4 Tb of images over the course of 30 flights, and location data for 239 ground control points (GCPs). We independently verified changes with orthoimagery, and found that structure-from-motion, software-reported root mean square errors (RMSEs) for both control and check points underestimated the actual error. We found that 3 cm changes are detectable with this methodology, thereby improving our knowledge of a rock’s response to underground explosions.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Farmers’ Perception of Climate Change and Its Impacts on Agriculture

Climate change and climate variability drive rapid glacier melt and snowpack loss, extreme precipitation and temperature events, and alteration of water availability in the Himalayas. There is increasing observational evidence of climate change impacts on water resource availability and agricultural productivity in the central Himalayan region. Here, we assess the farmers’ perception of climate change and its impacts on agriculture in western Nepal. We interviewed 554 households and conducted eight focus group discussions to collect farmers’ perceptions of temperature and rainfall characteristics, water availability, onset and duration of different seasons, and the impacts of such changes on their lives and livelihoods. Our results indicate that the farmers’ perceptions of rising annual and summer temperatures are consistent with observations. Perception, however, contradicts observed trends in winter temperature, as well as annual, monsoon, and winter precipitation. In addition, farmers are increasingly facing incidences of extreme events, including rainfall, floods, landslides, and droughts. These hazards often impact agricultural production, reducing household income and exacerbating the economic impacts on subsistence farmers. Integrated assessment of farmers’ perceptions and hydrometeorological observations is crucial to improving climate change impact assessment and informing the design of mitigation and adaptation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Observations of extreme wave runup events on the US Pacific Northwest coast

Extreme, tsunami-like wave runup events in the absence of earthquakes or landslides have been attributed to trapped waves over shallow bathymetry, long waves created by atmospheric disturbances, and long waves generated by abrupt breaking. These runup events are associated with inland excursions of hundreds of meters and periods of minutes. While the theory of radiation stress implies that nearshore energy transfer from the carrier waves to the infragravity waves can also lead to very large runup, there have not been observations of runup events induced by this process with magnitudes and periods comparable to the other three mechanisms. This work presents observations of several runup events in the US Pacific Northwest that are comparable to extreme runup events related to the other three mechanisms. It also discusses possible generation mechanisms and shows that energy transfer from carrier waves to bound infragravity waves is a plausible generation mechanism. In addition, a method to predict and forecast extreme runup events with similar characteristics is presented.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Gage for measuring coastal erosion and sedimentation

Underwater sand height gage, which measures heights up to 12 inches, is comprised of two standard flush-diaphragm pressure transducers. Gage is very sensitive to buried water heights and is useful as a research tool in study of wet earth and landslide phenomena.

Carpini, T. D.↗

Remote sensing of permafrost and geological hazards in Alaska

The author has identified the following significant results. The study of the ERTS-1 imagery of Alaska indicates the following: that areas of different topographic expression affecting the distribution and character of permafrost can be distinguished clearly; that on the Arctic North Slope, regional differences in the distribution and character of permafrost-related oriented thaw lakes can be observed; that the distribution of certain types of geologic materials having a significant effect on the character of permafrost can be delineated on a regional scale; and that the resolution of the imagery is adequate to identify large scale geologic hazards such as landslides, glacier-dammed lakes, aufeis fields, etc. The information concerning the distribution and character of permafrost and geologic hazards to the gained in accomplishing the objectives of this project will be an invaluable aid in solving engineering-geologic and environmental problems related to route and site selection for structures such as roads, railroads, pipelines, and large installations; to distribution of natural construction materials; and to construction and maintenance.

Ferrians, O. J., Jr.↗

Comparative evaluation of ERTS imagery for resource inventory in land use planning

The author has identified the following significant results. Numerous previously unmapped faults in central Oregon have been distinguished on ERTS-1 imagery. Tectonic mapping of fault-controlled linears demonstrates the utility of ERTS-1 imagery as a mean of illustrating and studying the regional tectonics of the state. Soil colors observed on ERTS-1 frame 1075-18150-5 at the eastern end of the Columbia basin correlate very well with those from descriptions of soils from that area. Digital output from frame 1021-18151 has shown the enhanced ability to interpret such features as joint patterns, shadowed landslide blocks, bottomlands, and drainage patterns. Widespread use of wheat-fallow rotation in northern Umatilla County, Oregon, insures that nearly one-half of the cultivated soil is devoid of vegetation much of the time. On ERTS-1 imagery, fallow fields are only slightly darker than fields of wheat stubble at the western end of the transect. Similar climate-related contrasts in soil color are visible on ERTS-1 Imagery from several other portions of the Columbia Basin. Absence of steep topography in the area mentioned, however, minimizes the disturbing effect caused by shadows.

Simonson, G. H.↗