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At least 217 records · Page 12

Modeling impacts of ice-nucleating particles from marine aerosols on mixed-phase orographic clouds during 2015 ACAPEX field campaign

Abstract. A large fraction of annual precipitation over the western United States comes from wintertime orographic clouds associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs). Transported African and Asian dust and marine aerosols from the Pacific Ocean may act as ice-nucleating particles (INPs) to affect cloud and precipitation properties over the region. Here we explored the effects of INPs from marine aerosols on orographic mixed-phase clouds and precipitation at different AR stages for an AR event observed during the 2015 ACAPEX field campaign under low dust (<0.02 cm−3) conditions. Simulations were conducted using the chemistry version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled with the spectral-bin microphysics at 1 km grid spacing, with ice nucleation connected with dust and marine aerosols. By comparing against airborne and ground-based observations, accounting for marine INP effects improves the simulation of AR-precipitation. The marine INPs enhance the formation of ice and snow, leading to less shallow warm clouds but more mixed-phase and deep clouds, as well as to a large spillover effect of precipitation after AR landfall. The responses of cloud and precipitation to marine INPs vary with the AR stages, with more significant effects before AR landfall and post-AR than after AR landfall, mainly because the moisture and temperature conditions change with the AR evolution. This work suggests weather and climate models need to consider the impacts of marine INPs since their contribution is notable under low dust conditions despite the much lower relative ice nucleation efficiency of marine INPs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Machine Learning Using Open Data Sources for Detection of Nuclear Proliferation Activities (U)

In FY2020, Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) in collaboration with the Sanghani Center for Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics (SCAIDA) at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (VT) and funded by the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Research and Development, began developing a demonstration prototype system that uses multiple machine learning and data analytic methods on large-scale open data sources to identify new, developing, and/or undeclared nuclear programs. Using the announcement in May 2018 of the proposed Savannah River Plutonium Processing Facility (SRPPF) as a test subject, the goal of this 2-year project is to forecast the SRPPF using only data prior to May 2018. The project work is split into a preliminary prototype development for the first year with an initial evaluation of viability followed by the second year of development to create an integrated prototype system and more extensive performance evaluation. This report documents the results of the preliminary-phase tasks.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

The Amazon Water Cycle: Perspectives from Water Budget Closure and Ocean Salinity

Global and regional water cycle includes precipitation, water vapor divergence, and change of column water vapor in the atmosphere, and land surface evapotranspiration, terrestrial water storage change, and river discharge, which is linked to ocean salinity near the river mouth. The water cycle is a crucial component of the Earth system, and numerous studies have addressed its individual components (e.g., precipitation). Here we assess, for the first time, if remote sensing and reanalysis datasets can accurately and self-consistently portray the Amazon water cycle. This is further assisted with satellite ocean salinity measurements near the mouth of the Amazon River. The widely used practice of taking the mean of an ensemble of datasets to represent water cycle components (e.g., precipitation) can produce large biases in water cycle closure. Additionally, closure is achieved with only a small subset of data combinations (e.g., ERA5 precipitation and evapotranspiration plus GRACE satellite terrestrial water storage), which rules out the lower precipitation and higher evapotranspiration estimates, providing valuable constraints on assessments of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and their ratio. The common approach of using the Óbidos stream gauge (located hundreds of kilometers from the river mouth) multiplied by a constant (1.25) to represent the entire Amazon discharge is found to misrepresent the seasonal cycle, and this can affect the apparent influence of Amazon discharge on tropical Atlantic salinity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Foundational Dataset for Developing Large-Sample Stream Temperature Models in the Conterminous United States

This dataset provides inputs, evaluation results, and trained weights from a large-sample Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model designed to predict daily stream temperatures across unregulated river reaches in the conterminous United States (CONUS). It includes dynamic meteorological and hydrologic forcings, static physiographic attributes, and model outputs from cross-validation experiments spanning 300 basins. It supports reproducible modeling, direct application for new basins, and provides data suitable for integration with reservoir and river simulations under current and future climates. It contains two .zip files described below · RQ-AI_runs.zip: Model outputs from 10-fold cross-validation experiments, including observed and predicted daily stream temperatures, along with test performance metrics for water years 2017–2019. Two versions are included: 1. Model trained and validated using subbasin-area weighted dynamic features. 2. Model trained and validated using whole-basin area weighted dynamic features. · RQ-AI_inputs.zip: Collection of all formatted dynamic and static predictor datasets (meteorological, hydrologic, and physiographic features) used in model training and analysis. Detailed instructions and data structure is held at the following GitLab repository: https://code.ornl.gov/tempwise/training.

Gomez-Velez, Jesus [Oak Ridge National Laboratory ↗

Technology Development for Dry Storage of Aluminum-Clad Spent Nuclear Fuel - 20490

A candidate disposition pathway for the > 13 MTHM of aluminum-clad spent nuclear fuel (ASNF), owned and managed by the U.S. Department of Energy, is the drying and placement of the SNF into sealed-canister dry storage, with the ASNF-in- canisters 'road-ready' for transportation to and final direct disposal in a repository waste package. Technical information gaps in fuel drying, and fuel dry storage behavior, have previously challenged the declaration of technology readiness for drying and placement of this fuel into the DOE Standard Canister design for > 50 years of safe dry storage. The principal technical information gaps included: i) characterization and thermal dehydration behavior of aluminum (oxy)hydroxide films attendant on the cladding due to film formation during reactor operation and during post-discharge up to long-term wet storage histories; and ii) G-value data to enable estimation of the radiolytic gas generation from the cladding with its (oxy)hydroxide films. Thus, the oxide films on the ASNF challenged the safety of a sealed storage canister with thermal and radiolytic decomposition of the waters on the films that can lead to corrosion, pressurization, and flammability issues. These gaps in the technical information base have largely been closed. This paper discusses the investigations at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and the Savannah River National laboratory (SRNL), and outlines the pending technology development work for input to an engineering design to enable a road-ready dry storage system for ASNF. The ASNF inventory considered for road-ready dry storage is stored at the Savannah River Site (SRS) and at the Idaho Nuclear Technology and Engineering Center (INTEC) at the INL. The ASNF inventory in the SRS L Basin is from foreign and domestic research reactors (FRR and DRR), and is diverse in terms of design, irradiation, and post-reactor-discharge storage conditions; these factors yield a range of characteristics of cladding oxide films on ASNF. Mixed aluminum (oxy)hydroxide (boehmite and bayerite/gibbsite) films, non-uniform in thicknesses up to a maximum local thickness bounded by 25 μm, were observed on ASNF materials removed from wet storage in the L Basin and in non-sealed dry storage at the SRS following reactor service and a long-term (up to 40+ years) interim storage history. The ASNF inventory at INTEC, in both wet and vented dry storage, is predominantly from the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR), but it also includes DRR and FRR fuel. To address a profound behavior of these films, radiolysis testing of aluminum specimens with mixed type boehmite/bayerite oxide films was performed to develop basic data on G-values for production of radiolytic hydrogen under dry storage conditions with nominal relative humidity, temperature, and cover gas. Modeling and simulation of canister internal environments with postulated inventories of oxide films provides estimation of the evolution of the conditions of the canister loaded with ASNF. Simultaneous Thermal Analysis (TGA/DSC) of hydrated oxide powders, and laboratory-scale aluminum specimens with a bayerite film (∼10 μm) using TGA methods, inform drying time/temperature conditions to be used for the ASNF. A demonstration project is recommended for Verification and Validation of the drying and storage of the ASNF. Remaining major tasks leading up to the hot demonstration include scale-up radiolysis testing and scale-up drying testing. Engineering design with the information from the technology program will establish the safety basis and enable long-term (> 50 years) dry storage compatibility with ASNF in the DOE Standard Canister pending its transportation to and disposal in a repository. This full capability would show the ASNF-in-canister storage system to be road-ready. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Continental-Scale Controls on Hyporheic Respiration Revealed by Knowledge-Guided Machine Learning

Hyporheic zone sediments regulate organic matter turnover and in-stream respiration, yet controls on sediment respiration remain poorly constrained across heterogeneous river networks, limiting prediction of stream metabolism and carbon processing at continental scales. Here, we integrate observations from ~90 river corridors across the United States in the WHONDRS consortium with a knowledge-guided machine learning (KGML) framework that couples thermodynamic rate theory with machine learning to identify dominant controls on hyporheic respiration. Diagnostic analyses show that organic matter concentration and thermodynamic favorability define an upper bound on respiration potential, whereas biological catalytic capacity and physical accessibility jointly govern realized respiration rates through interaction effects. To represent unmeasurable accessibility constraints, we use the mechanistic model as a scaffold for KGML, allowing machine learning to target residual structure not explained by process theory. This hybrid framework improves predictive skill relative to both the mechanistic model alone and fully data-driven models while preserving interpretability. These results indicate that variability in hyporheic respiration is largely mechanistically structured and demonstrate how integrating process theory with explainable AI enhances predictive performance while enabling scalable synthesis of river corridor observations.

Zheng, Jianqiu↗

Structuring Nutrient Yields throughout Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin Using Machine Learning Approaches

To minimize the eutrophication pressure along the Gulf of Mexico or reduce the size of the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico, it is important to understand the underlying temporal and spatial variations and correlations in excess nutrient loads, which are strongly associated with the formation of hypoxia. This study’s objective was to reveal and visualize structures in high-dimensional datasets of nutrient yield distributions throughout the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB). For this purpose, the annual mean nutrient concentrations were collected from thirty-three US Geological Survey (USGS) water stations scattered in the upper and lower MARB from 1996 to 2020. Eight surface water quality indicators were selected to make comparisons among water stations along the MARB over the past two decades. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to comprehensively evaluate the nutrient yields across thirty-three USGS monitoring stations and identify the major contributing nutrient loads. The results showed that all samples could be analyzed using two main components, which accounted for 81.6% of the total variance. The PCA results showed that yields of orthophosphate (OP), silica (SI), nitrate–nitrites (NO 3 -NO 2 ), and total suspended sediment (TSS) are major contributors to nutrient yields. It also showed that land-planted crops, density of population, domestic and industrial discharges, and precipitation are fundamental causes of excess nutrient loads in MARB. These factors are of great significance for the excess nutrient load management and pollution control of the Mississippi River. It was found that the average nutrient yields were stable within the sub-MARB area, but the large nitrogen yields in the upper MARB and the large phosphorus yields in the lower MARB were of great concern. t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE) revealed interesting nonlinear and local structures in nutrient yield distributions. Clustering analysis (CA) showed the detailed development of similarities in the nutrient yield distribution. Moreover, PCA, t-SNE, and CA showed consistent clustering results. This study demonstrated that the integration of dimension reduction techniques, PCA, and t-SNE with CA techniques in machine learning are effective tools for the visualization of the structures of the correlations in high-dimensional datasets of nutrient yields and provide a comprehensive understanding of the correlations in the distributions of nutrient loads across the MARB.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Model Inputs, Outputs, and Scripts associated with: “Spatial microbial respiration variations in the hyporheic zones within the Columbia River Basin”

This data package is associated with the publication “Spatial microbial respiration variations in the hyporheic zones within the Columbia River Basin” published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences (Son et al. 2022) available at doi: 10.1029/2021JG006654. This data package includes the key model inputs/outputs of the river corridor model for the Columbia River Basin (CRB) and the model source codes, which were used in the manuscript. The model is a carbon-nitrogen-coupled river corridor model (RCM), and the model is used to quantify hyporheic zone (HZ) aerobic and anaerobic respiration at the NHDPLUS stream reach scales. The RCM used in this study combines empirical substrate models derived from observations and three microbially driven reactions to compute respiration of the HZ for each National Hydrography Dataset (NHD) reach within the CRB. The reactions in HZs of each NHD reach include anaerobic respiration and two-step anaerobic respiration via denitrification. Our HZ respiration estimates are limited to the lotic (or flowing) stream/river systems, and do not account for the respiration process in water column. Note that the RCM only simulates the HZ’s contribution to the dissolved carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations in the streams, and the CO2 emissions to the atmosphere are not modelled. The model computes at hourly timesteps because of the fast reaction rates. The key input data of the model are exchange flux, residence time, and stream solute (dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved oxygen (DO), and nitrate concentrations). These inputs are constant over time and represent long-term averaged values.This modeling framework successfully quantified HZ respiration components over multiple scales. It revealed key mechanisms driving the spatial variation of HZ aerobic and anaerobic respiration in reaches with varying hydrologic and substrate conditions. Thus, this modeling study offers a testing hypothesis in different river system (e.g., climate and biomes) for the HZ respiration processes, and can be used as a sampling design tool for large-scale HZ experimental studies.This dataset contains five folders: (1) model_inputs, (2) model_outputs, (3) Rscripts, (4) figures, and (5) model_codes. It also contains a readme, file level metadata (FLMD), and data dictionary (dd). Please see the FLMD for a list of all the files contained in this data package and descriptions for each. The model_inputs folder contains the model inputs used to drive the model simulations. The model_outputs folder contains key model output files from the river corridor model. The Rscripts folder contains the Rscripts for pre- and post- processing model results. The figures folder contains the raw figures associated with the manuscript. The model_codes folder includes key model source codes/input files. All files are .jpg, .jpeg, .out, .e, .od, .dat, .sub, .F90, .0, .R, .sbx, .cpg, .sbn, .shx, .shp, .dbf, .prj, .tfw, .tif, .xml, .pdf, or .csv.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Alternative Treatment of Defense Waste Processing Facility Recycle via Reuse of Existing Liquid Waste Facilities - 20097

The Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) at Savannah River Site (SRS) has been immobilizing high level waste since 1996. The chemical process within DWPF generates a large volume of condensate, which is recycled to the SRS H-Area Tank Farm. The recycle stream includes a small quantity of sludge solids, as well as soluble cesium that is volatilized during melter operation. The recycle waste is currently received into a large, underground waste tank that separates insoluble solids via decanting. The supernate is treated by an evaporator with a concentrate stream that is stored for future processing. The evaporator overheads are collected and sent to the Effluent Treatment Project (ETP) for final polishing and testing prior to discharge to local surface water. Recycle storage and treatment as described above complicates the overall mission within the tank farms, which are primarily engaged in waste retrieval and preparation activities that support sludge and salt disposition, as well as tank characterization and closure. The need to devote a portion of available storage space to recycle treatment limits operational flexibility, and ultimately the DWPF recycle stream must be diverted to fully close all the SRS waste tanks. An alternative treatment process is being explored to decouple the recycle stream from the tank farm. The proposed treatment process will accomplish solids separation via crossflow filtration and will utilize a wiped film evaporator to volume-reduce the filtrate stream. Evaporator overheads will continue to be further processed in ETP while the solids stream and evaporator concentrate stream will be returned for reprocessing with the DWPF and Salt Waste Processing Facility (SWPF). This process will utilize existing facilities within DWPF and the tank farm that were previously dedicated to Interim Salt Disposition (ISD), but no longer have an identified mission with the startup of SWPF. The reuse of these facilities will remove several constraints from the current Liquid Waste (LW) System Plan without expanding the current footprint of Department of Energy Environmental Management (EM) infrastructure within LW. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Summary of Savannah River Site FY21 Salt Waste Qualification Data and Characterization Data from Salt Waste Batches Processed Since 2008

The Savannah River National Laboratory analyzed samples from Savannah River Site Waste Tank 41H and 21H to support qualification of Salt Waste Processing Facility Waste Batches 3 and 4 (the FY21 Salt Batch Qualification samples) for processing. Neither of the samples displayed any unusual or unexpected characteristics such as large amounts of solids, floating solids, or unusual color. Characterization of these samples confirmed similar chemical composition and characteristics to previous salt waste batches. These results were initially provided to Savannah River Remediation (Liquid Waste Operations Sub-contractor) as External Sample Results LIMS Reports. The analytical results (both expedited and routine) are now summarized and discussed in this technical report.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

An Assessment of the Influence of Uncertainty in Temporally Evolving Streamflow Forecasts on Riverine Inundation Modeling

Continental-scale river forecasting platforms forecast streamflow at reaches that can be used as boundary conditions to drive a local-scale flood inundation model. Uncertainty accumulated during this process stems not only from any part of the forecasting chain but can also be caused by the daily variations in weather forcing that keeps evolving as the event advances. This work aims to examine the influence of the evolving forecast streamflow on predicting the maximum inundation for extreme floods. A diagnostic case study was made on the basis of a hindcast of Hurricane Matthew striking the eastern U.S. in 2016. The U.S. National Water Model was one-way coupled to a hydrodynamic inundation model through a developed automated workflow. Although the river forcing has significantly mismatched hydrographs versus observations, the simulated peak water surface elevations and maximum extents were validated to be comparable with the observations, which indicates that the inundation model may not be sensitive to the inherited uncertainty from the weather forcing. Moreover, the uncertainty of the forecast streamflow time series caused only one order of magnitude fewer variations in inundation prediction; this dampening effect may become clearer for extreme events with large areas inundated. In addition, the forecast total volume of stream discharge appears to be an important metric for assessing the performance of river forcing for inundation mapping, as a linear correlation between the total volume and the accuracy of the predicted peak water surface elevation and maximum extent was found, with the coefficients of determination all above 0.8. Extra best-practice experience of running similar operational tasks demonstrated the tradeoff between the cost and accuracy gain.

flood, national water model, RIFT↗

The Budyko shape parameter as a descriptive index for streamflow loss

Increases in evapotranspiration (ET) from global warming are decreasing streamflow in headwater basins worldwide. However, these streamflow losses do not occur uniformly due to complex topography. To better understand the heterogeneity of streamflow loss, we use the Budyko shape parameter (ω) as a diagnostic tool. We fit ω to 37-year of hydrologic simulation output in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), an important headwater basin in the US. We split the UCRB into two categories: peak watersheds with high elevation and steep slopes, and valley watersheds with lower elevation and gradual slopes. Our results demonstrate a relationship between streamflow loss and ω. The valley watersheds with greater streamflow loss have ω higher than 3.1, while the peak watersheds with less streamflow loss have an average ω of 1.3. This work highlights the use of ω as an indicator of streamflow loss and could be generalized to other headwater basin systems.

large scale analysis↗

Modeling of streamflow in a 30 km long reach spanning 5 years using OpenFOAM 5.x

Abstract. Developing accurate and efficient modeling techniques for streamflow at the tens-of-kilometers spatial scale and multi-year temporal scale is critical for evaluating and predicting the impact of climate- and human-induced discharge variations on river hydrodynamics. However, achieving such a goal is challenging because of limited surveys of streambed hydraulic roughness, uncertain boundary condition specifications, and high computational costs. We demonstrate that accurate and efficient three-dimensional (3-D) hydrodynamic modeling of natural rivers at 30 km and 5-year scales is feasible using the following three techniques within OpenFOAM, an open-source computational fluid dynamics platform: (1) generating a distributed hydraulic roughness field for the streambed by integrating water-stage observation data, a rough wall theory, and a local roughness optimization and adjustment strategy; (2) prescribing the boundary condition for the inflow and outflow by integrating precomputed results of a one-dimensional (1-D) hydraulic model with the 3-D model; and (3) reducing computational time using multiple parallel runs constrained by 1-D inflow and outflow boundary conditions. Streamflow modeling for a 30 km long reach in the Columbia River (CR) over 58 months can be achieved in less than 6 d using 1.1 million CPU hours. The mean error between the modeled and the observed water stages for our simulated CR reach ranges from −16 to 9 cm (equivalent to approximately ±7 % relative to the average water depth) at seven locations during most of the years between 2011 and 2019. We can reproduce the velocity distribution measured by the acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP). The correlation coefficients of the depth-averaged velocity between the model and ADCP measurements are in the range between 0.71 and 0.83 at 75 % of the survey cross sections. With the validated model, we further show that the relative importance of dynamic pressure versus hydrostatic pressure varies with discharge variations and topography heterogeneity. Given the model's high accuracy and computational efficiency, the model framework provides a generic approach to evaluate and predict the impacts of climate- and human-induced discharge variations on river hydrodynamics at tens-of-kilometers and decadal scales.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Summary of Savannah River Site FY22 Salt Waste Qualification Data

The Savannah River National Laboratory analyzed samples from Savannah River Site Waste Tank 41H, 21H and 42H to support qualification of Salt Waste Processing Facility (SWPF) Waste Batches 5, 6, and 7 for processing (the FY22 Salt Batch Qualification samples). None of the samples displayed any unusual or unexpected characteristics such as large amounts of solids, floating solids, or unusual color. Characterization of these samples confirmed similar chemical composition and characteristics to previous salt waste batches. These results were initially provided to Savannah River Mission Completion (Liquid Waste Operations subcontractor) as External Sample Results LIMS Reports and the Tank 41H (Salt Batch 5 sample) was also summarized in two separate technical reports. The analytical results (both rapid and long term) are now summarized and discussed in this technical report.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Stream Temperature Responses to Summer Urban Rain Events Along the Savannah River

The hydrological urban heat island (HUHI) is a recent facet of the urban heat island (UHI), describing thermal enhancement of bodies of water in response to urbanization. Although the forefront of this work has been studied for large Metropolitan areas, this effect on developing cities is currently unknown. To locally measure and quantify HUHI effects in a developing city, we utilized Multi-Radar Multi Sensor (MRMS) radar-derived rainfall data to estimate rainfall in the Augusta Metropolitan Area (AMA) and the Savannah Metropolitan Area (SMA), two developing communities adjacent to the Savannah River. We analyzed mean temperature trends of two stream gauges measuring temperature at, and downstream of the central AMA and the SMA. Results show overall peak stream temperatures within AMA are reached within a 2hr timeframe with surge temperatures between 1-2 K, perhaps assisted by the presence of the Augusta Shoals further upstream. The SMA appears to have little HUHI effects due to urban greening and impacts to coastal meteorology. It is suggested that Moderate rainfall events (10-25mm of rainfall) have a significant correlation (~0.1 correlation coefficient with a significance level of 0.05) between stream temperature and rainfall, indicating potential warmer runoff input into the Savannah River. Although results seem promising, further research into moderate rainfall events are needed to determine the extent of the HUHI for AMA.

Wermter, Joseph E. [Savannah River National Labora↗

Response of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers on the U.S. West Coast to Local Sea Surface Temperature Perturbations

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) play a crucial role in the hydroclimate of the U.S. west coast. While the impact of large-scale sea surface temperature (SST) patterns on ARs is well recognized, the specific roles of local SST on ARs have not been systematically investigated. Here, we analyzed the landfalling ARs from two regional climate simulations that differ only in the local SST. With local SST warming, AR frequency increases across the U.S. west coast, with comparable contributions from the spatial expansion of ARs and emergence of new ARs. AR landfalling area, inland intrusion distance, and intensity also increase, with landfalling area showing the largest sensitivity. Although local SST warming only increases the AR moisture by ~0.4%/K, AR-related precipitation increases by 3%/K, demonstrating the important impact of local SST warming on intensifying storms. Hence, local SST is important for accurate depiction of ARs and their precipitation in the western United States.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Achieving Productivity to Recover and Restore Columbia River Stream-Type Chinook Salmon Relies on Increasing Smolt-To-Adult Survival

Abstract We analyzed and compared productivity and survival rates of populations of stream-type Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha from the upper and middle ranges of their distribution in the Columbia River basin. These two groups of populations undergo vastly different exposures during migration through the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS). Declines of the Snake River populations, listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, have been associated with the development and operation of the FCRPS. In contrast, John Day River stream-type Chinook Salmon populations, which were less affected by the FCRPS, have declined to a lesser extent and are not listed. Smolt-to-adult survival rates (SARs) accounted for a majority of the variation in life cycle survival rates of Snake River Chinook Salmon. Productivity declined to 13% and 44% of historical productivity levels for Snake River and John Day River populations, respectively. A synthesis of previous studies contrasting anthropogenic impacts between the two regions supports the conclusion that FCRPS impacts explain the large difference in population productivity. Our results suggest that SARs of 4% would result in an expected productivity of up to 70% of historical levels (a SAR level consistent with regional restoration objectives). The SARs have been shown to be highly influenced by conditions within the FCRPS (e.g., water velocity and passage through dam powerhouses). Marine conditions also influence SARs; however, meaningful management actions are only available to affect conditions within the FCRPS. Given the importance of SARs to overall life cycle productivity, recovery and restoration strategies need to prioritize actions that have potential to substantially increase SARs by addressing the significant impacts of main-stem dams. This study highlights the importance of considering river management options in the face of increasingly variable and warming ocean conditions.

Petrosky, Charles E.↗

Applying cumulative effects to strategically advance large-scale ecosystem restoration

Programs restoring large terrestrial-aquatic ecosystems are expected to increase in area and number over the next decade. Factors ensuring long-term effectiveness at the program scale differ from those at the individual restoration project scale, necessitating a new synthesis. Here we contextualize hydrological, geomorphological, and biological effects of large-scale ecosystem restoration activities within a cumulative-effects paradigm. Evidence of eight modes of cumulative effects benefiting species and ecosystems was elucidated by reviewing restoration efforts in the greater Florida Everglades, Gulf Coast, lower Columbia River and estuary, Puget Sound estuary, Missouri River, northeastern coastal states, San Francisco Bay and Sacramento Delta. Additive and nonlinear cumulative effects of interacting restoration projects propagated across landscape and regional geographic scales, and throughout trophic levels, affecting population structures. Applying a cumulative-effects paradigm to planning, implementing, and evaluating large-scale restoration will avoid countervailing effects and capitalize on positive feedback, advancing evidence-based programs to recover priority species and ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗