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NASA NTRS2010

Aircraft Trajectory Optimization and Contrails Avoidance in the Presence of Winds

There are indications that persistent contrails can lead to adverse climate change, although the complete effect on climate forcing is still uncertain. A flight trajectory optimization algorithm with fuel and contrails models, which develops alternative flight paths, provides policy makers the necessary data to make tradeoffs between persistent contrails mitigation and aircraft fuel consumption. This study develops an algorithm that calculates wind-optimal trajectories for cruising aircraft while avoiding the regions of airspace prone to persistent contrails formation. The optimal trajectories are developed by solving a non-linear optimal control problem with path constraints. The regions of airspace favorable to persistent contrails formation are modeled as penalty areas that aircraft should avoid and are adjustable. The tradeoff between persistent contrails formation and additional fuel consumption is investigated, with and without altitude optimization, for 12 city-pairs in the continental United States. Without altitude optimization, the reduction in contrail travel times is gradual with increase in total fuel consumption. When altitude is optimized, a two percent increase in total fuel consumption can reduce the total travel times through contrail regions by more than six times. Allowing further increase in fuel consumption does not seem to result in proportionate decrease in contrail travel times.

Ng, Hok K.↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Effect of Modified Control Limits on the Performance of a Generic Commercial Aircraft Engine

This paper studies the effect of modifying the control limits of an aircraft engine to obtain additional performance. In an emergency situation, the ability to operate an engine above its normal operating limits and thereby gain additional performance may aid in the recovery of a distressed aircraft. However, the modification of an engine s limits is complex due to the risk of an engine failure. This paper focuses on the tradeoff between enhanced performance and risk of either incurring a mechanical engine failure or compromising engine operability. The ultimate goal is to increase the engine performance, without a large increase in risk of an engine failure, in order to increase the probability of recovering the distressed aircraft. The control limit modifications proposed are to extend the rotor speeds, temperatures, and pressures to allow more thrust to be produced by the engine, or to increase the rotor accelerations and allow the engine to follow a fast transient. These modifications do result in increased performance; however this study indicates that these modifications also lead to an increased risk of engine failure.

Csank, Jeffrey T.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Integration of Product, Package, Process, and Environment: A Food System Optimization

The food systems slated for future NASA missions must meet crew nutritional needs, be acceptable for consumption, and use resources efficiently. Although the current food system of prepackaged, moderately stabilized food items works well for International Space Station (ISS) missions, many of the current space menu items do not maintain acceptability and/or nutritive value beyond 2 years. Longer space missions require that the food system can sustain the crew for 3 to 5 years without replenishment. The task "Integration of Product, Package, Process, and Environment: A Food System Optimization" has the objective of optimizing food-product shelf life for the space-food system through product recipe adjustments, new packaging and processing technologies, and modified storage conditions. Two emergent food processing technologies were examined to identify a pathway to stable, wet-pack foods without the detrimental color and texture effects. Both microwave-assisted thermal sterilization (MATS) and pressure-assisted thermal stabilization (PATS) were evaluated against traditional retort processing to determine if lower heat inputs during processing would produce a product with higher micronutrient quality and longer shelf life. While MATS products did have brighter color and better texture initially, the advantages were not sustained. The non-metallized packaging film used in the process likely provided inadequate oxygen barrier. No difference in vitamin stability was evident between MATS and retort processed foods. Similarly, fruit products produced using PATS showed improved color and texture through 3 years of storage compared to retort fruit, but the vitamin stability was not improved. The final processing study involved freeze drying. Five processing factors were tested in factorial design to assess potential impact of each to the quality of freeze-dried food, including the integrity of the microstructure. The initial freezing rate and primary freeze drying temperature and pressure were linked to final product quality in freeze-dried corn, indicating processing modifications that could lead to improved product shelf life. Storage temperatures and packaging systems were also assessed for the impact to food quality. Reduced temperature storage had inconclusive impact to the progression of rancidity in butter cookies. Frozen storage was detrimental to fruit and vegetable textural attributes but refrigerated storage helped to sustain color and organoleptic ratings for plant-based foods. With regard to packaging systems, the metallized film overwrap significantly decreased the progression of the rancidity of butter cookies as compared to the highest barrier non-metallized film. The inclusion of oxygen scavengers resulted in noticeable moisture gains in butter cookies over time, independent of packaging film systems. Neither emergent processing technology nor the freeze dry optimization resulted in compelling quality differences from current space food provisions such that a five-year shelf life is likely with these processing changes alone. Using a combination of refrigeration and PATS processing is expected to result in organoleptically-acceptable fruit quality for most fruits through five years. The vitamin degradation will be aided somewhat by the cold temperatures but, given the labile nature of vitamin C, a more stable fortification method, such as encapsulation, should also be investigated to ensure vitamin delivery throughout the product life. Similarly, significant improvement to the packaging film used in the MATS processing, optimization of formulation for dielectric properties, vitamin fortification, and reduced temperature storage should be investigated as a hurdle approach to reach a five year shelf life in wet-pack entrees and soups. Baked goods and other environmentally-sensitive spaceflight foods will require an almost impenetrable barrier to protect the foods from oxygen and moisture ingress but scavengers and reduced storage temperature did not improve baked good shelf life and are not recommended at this time for these foods.

Cooper, Maya R.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Global Landslide Forecasting System for Hazard Assessment and Situational Awareness

Landslides triggered by extreme rainfall can be devastating, resulting in loss of life, property, and infrastructure. Landslide forecasting systems provide an opportunity to build awareness of potential hazards and ultimately take preemptive measures. There is currently a dearth of forecasting systems that provide regional or global coverage, but these systems can offer important situational awareness in data-sparse, ungauged, or large-scale catchments. A near global, primarily satellite-based system calledthe Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) provides near real-time estimates of potential landslide hazard and exposure around the world. In this work, a precipitation forecast module is introduced into LHASA to complement the existing LHASA framework and provide an estimate of landslide hazard up to three days in advanceat 1km resolution. The model-based Goddard Earth Observing System-Forward Processing (GEOS-FP) precipitation forecast product is used as the forcing input for the model in place of the satellite-based Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Mission product. Soil moisture and snow depth from the GEOS-FP assimilated product are also incorporated. The study period January 2020–January 2021 is usedto test the model performance against the LHASA near real-time estimates at multiple spatiotemporal scales. Validation of the model is carried out using a collection of rainfall-triggered landslide inventories from around the world as case studies to demonstrate the potential utility and limitations of this system.The rescaling of the GEOS-FP precipitation product is a critical step in incorporating the forecasted precipitation data within LHASA-Forecast (LHASA-F). Combining different streams of forecasted data within the LHASA-F framework shows promise, particularly for larger events at the 1-and 2-day lead time for events. Results indicate that for the case studies evaluated, the LHASA-F is generally able to resolve major landslide events triggered by extreme rainfall, such as from tropical cyclones. The analysis shows that landslide forecast outputs may be represented differently depending on the user’s needs. This framework serves as a first milestone in providing a global predictive view of landslide hazard.

Landslide forecasting system↗

NASA NTRS2021

Lower-Hybrid Drift Waves and Their Interaction With Plasmas in A 3D Symmetric Reconnection Simulation With Zero Guide Field

We investigate lower-hybrid drift waves (LHDW) in symmetric magnetic reconnection with zero guide field using three-dimensional particle-in-cell simulations. The long-wavelength mode with develops in the bifurcated electron current layer around the X-line within the width of the electron meandering motion from the mid-plane, where is the ion (electron) gyroradius. The short-wavelength mode with develops in the separatrix region downstream of the electron outflow jet, producing electron vortices in the background flow frame. Electrons follow the E × B drift with corrections from the diamagnetic drift and are heated inside the vortices with diverging electric fields. In the vortices, ions have comparable E × B and inertia drifts, which together mostly cancel the diamagnetic drift. Toward the center of diverging field vortices, ions are decelerated, leading to a decrease in the perpendicular temperature, while the loss of low-energy ions results in an increase in the parallel temperature. Parallel electric fields exist as a combination of the LHDW wave field projected to the magnetic field direction and the penetration of whistler waves that are mainly outside of the LHDW layer. The magnetic flux tube is twisted in the vortices. The twist may potentially lead to slippage reconnection, as indicated by the non-uniform parallel potential variation across field lines, while the periodic variations of the twisting directions are a limiting factor.

Shan Wang↗

DOE OSTI2026

Influence of Operating Conditions on Ethanol Passive Prechamber Cold-start Operation

Cold-start operation in spark ignition engines is characterized by many drawbacks such as poor fuel vaporization, substantial wall film formation, and weak ignition which can result in unstable combustion and high concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and unburnt hydrocarbons (UHC) prior to catalyst light-off. These challenges are particularly important for ethanol as the fuel’s high latent heat of vaporization and low vapor pressure can hinder reliable ignition during cold-start. In this context, passive prechamber ignition systems offer a viable pathway to improve ignitability by producing hot turbulent jets that can promote combustion in the main chamber. In this study, the influence of operating conditions on jet formation and combustion characteristics in an ethanol-fueled passive prechamber spark ignition engine is investigated. Two intake pressures (40 kPa and 60 kPa) and two engine speeds (450 and 600 rpm) are studied to represent various stages of the cold-start ramp-up. Results indicate that lower intake pressures lead to delayed and asymmetric turbulent jet formation, and lower peak heat release rates. Lower engine speeds, on the other hand, produced higher peak heat release and faster combustion due to greater residence time in the engine. This greater residence time also increases the likelihood of autoignition in the main chamber, potentially promoting quicker heat release for lower engine speeds. These results provide insight into the role of operating conditions on cold-start ramp-up of passive prechamber engines.

Banagiri, Shrikar [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000239745099)↗

NASA NTRS2016

Risk of Performance Decrements and Adverse Health Outcomes Resulting from Sleep Loss, Circadian Desynchronization, and Work Overload

Sleep loss, circadian desynchronization, and work overload occur to some extent for ground and flight crews, prior to and during spaceflight missions. Ground evidence indicates that such risk factors may lead to performance decrements and adverse health outcomes, which could potentially compromise mission objectives. Efforts are needed to identify the environmental and mission conditions that interfere with sleep and circadian alignment, as well as individual differences in vulnerability and resiliency to sleep loss and circadian desynchronization. Specifically, this report highlights a collection of new evidence to better characterize the risk and reveals new gaps in this risk as follows: Sleep loss is apparent during spaceflight. Astronauts consistently average less sleep during spaceflight relative to on the ground. The causes of this sleep loss remain unknown, however ground-based evidence suggests that the sleep duration of astronauts is likely to lead to performance impairment and short and long-term health consequences. Further research is needed in this area in order to develop screening tools to assess individual astronaut sleep need in order to quantify the magnitude of sleep loss during spaceflight; current and planned efforts in BHP's research portfolio address this need. In addition, it is still unclear whether the conditions of spaceflight environment lead to sleep loss or whether other factors, such as work overload lead to the reduced sleep duration. Future data mining efforts and continued data collection on the ISS will help to further characterize factors contributing to sleep loss. Sleep inertia has not been evaluated during spaceflight. Ground-based studies confirm that it takes two to four hours to achieve optimal performance after waking from a sleep episode. Sleep inertia has been associated with increased accidents and reduced performance in operational environments. Sleep inertia poses considerable risk during spaceflight when emergency situations necessitate that crewmembers wake from sleep and make quick decisions. A recently completed BHP investigation assesses the effects of sleep inertia upon abrupt awakening, with and without hypnotics currently used in spaceflight; results from this investigation will help to inform strategies relative to sleep inertia effects on performance. Circadian desynchrony has been observed during spaceflight. Circadian desynchrony during spaceflight develops due to schedule constraints requiring non-24 operations or 'slam-shifts' and due to insufficient or mis-timed light exposure. In addition, circadian misalignment has been associated with reduced sleep duration and increased medication use. In ground-based studies, circadian desynchrony has been associated with significant performance impairment and increased risk of accidents when operations coincide with the circadian nadir. There is a great deal of information available on how to manage circadian misalignment, however, there are currently no easily collected biomarkers that can be used during spaceflight to determine circadian phase. Current research efforts are addressing this gap. Work overload has been documented during current spaceflight operations. NASA has established work hour guidelines that limit shift duration, however, schedule creep, where duty requirements necessitate working beyond scheduled work hours, has been reported. This observation warrants the documentation of actual work hours in order to improve planning and in order to ensure that astronauts receive adequate down time. In addition to concerns about work overload, ground based evidence suggests that work underload may be a concern during deep space missions, where torpor may develop and physically demanding workload will be exchanged for monitoring of autonomous systems. Given that increased automation is anticipated for exploration vehicles, fatigue effects in the context of such systems needs to be further understood. Performance metrics are needed to evaluate fitness-for-duty during spaceflight. Although ground-based evidence supports the notion that sleep loss, circadian desynchronization and work overload lead to performance impairment, inconsistency in the measures used to evaluate performance during spaceflight make it difficult to evaluate the magnitude of performance impairment during spaceflight. Work is underway to standardize measures of performance evaluation during spaceflight. Once established, such performance indicators need to be correlated with operational performance. Individual differences in sleep need and circadian preference, phase shifting ability and period have been documented in ground-based studies. Individual differences in response to sleep loss and circadian misalignment have also been documented and are presumed to be associated with genetic polymorphisms. No studies have systematically reported individual differences in sleep or circadian-related outcomes during spaceflight. More work is needed in this area in order to identify genetic or phenotypic biomarkers that predict resilience or vulnerability to sleep loss in order to personalize countermeasure strategies and mitigate performance impairment during spaceflight. Two laboratory and field investigations specific to this topic are currently ongoing; additional efforts, including an effort to mine existing biological data from spaceflight relative to sleep and circadian outcomes, are planned. Sex differences in sleep need and circadian period and phase have been reported in ground-based studies. The impact of these sex differences on performance is unclear. Sex differences in sleep need and circadian rhythms have not been systematically studied during spaceflight, presumably due to the small number of women that have flown in space. More research is needed in this area to evaluate whether any of the observed sex differences in physiology lead to altered performance in spaceflight and on the ground.

Flynn-Evans, Erin↗

NASA NTRS2021

Developing a Set of Indicators to Identify, Monitor, and Track Impacts and Change in Forests of the United States

United States forestland is an important ecosystem type, land cover, land use, and economic resource that is facing several drivers of change including climatic. Because of its significance, forestland was identified through the National Climate Assessment(NCA) as a key sector and system of concern to be included in a system of climate indicators as part of a sustained assessment effort. Here, we describe 11 informative core indicators of forests and climate change impacts with metrics available or nearly available for use in the NCA efforts. The recommended indicators are based on a comprehensive conceptual model which recognizes forests as a land use, an ecosystem, and an economic sector. The indicators cover major forest attributes such as extent, structural components such as biomass, functions such as growth and productivity, and ecosystem services such as biodiversity and outdoor recreation. Interactions between humans and forests are represented through indicators focused on the wildland-urban interface, cost to mitigate wildfire risk, and energy produced from forest-based biomass. Selected indicators also include drought and disturbance from both wildfires and biotic agents. The forest indicators presented are an initial set that will need further refinement in coordination with other NCA indicator teams. Our effort ideally will initiate the collection of critical measurements and observations and lead to additional research on forest-climate indicators.

U.S. forests↗

NASA NTRS2015

High Ice Water Content at Low Radar Reflectivity near Deep Convection: Part II. Evaluation of Microphysical Pathways in Updraft Parcel Simulations

The aeronautics industry has established that a threat to aircraft is posed by atmospheric conditions of substantial ice water content (IWC) where equivalent radar reflectivity (Ze) does not exceed 20-30 dBZ and supercooled water is not present; these conditions are encountered almost exclusively in the vicinity of deep convection. Part 1 (Fridlind et al., 2015) of this two-part study presents in situ measurements of such conditions sampled by Airbus in three tropical regions, commonly near 11 km and -43 C, and concludes that the measured ice particle size distributions are broadly consistent with past literature with profiling radar measurements of Z(sub e) and mean Doppler velocity obtained within monsoonal deep convection in one of the regions sampled. In all three regions, the Airbus measurements generally indicate variable IWC that often exceeds 2 gm (exp -3) with relatively uniform mass median area-equivalent diameter (MMD(sub eq) of 200-300 micrometers. Here we use a parcel model with size-resolved microphysics to investigate microphysical pathways that could lead to such conditions. Our simulations indicate that homogeneous freezing of water drops produces a much smaller ice MMD(sub eq) than observed, and occurs only in the absence of hydrometeor gravitational collection for the conditions considered. Development of a mass mode of ice aloft that overlaps with the measurements requires a substantial source of small ice particles at temperatures of about -10 C or warmer, which subsequently grow from water vapor. One conceivable source in our simulation framework is Hallett-Mossop ice production; another is abundant concentrations of heterogeneous ice freezing nuclei acting together with copious shattering of water drops upon freezing. Regardless of the production mechanism, the dominant mass modal diameter of vapor-grown ice is reduced as the ice-multiplication source strength increases and as competition for water vapor increases. Both mass and modal diameter are reduced by entrainment and by increasing aerosol concentrations. Weaker updrafts lead to greater mass and larger modal diameters of vapor-grown ice, the opposite of expectations regarding lofting of larger ice particles in stronger updrafts. While stronger updrafts do loft more dense ice particles produced primarily by raindrop freezing, we find that weaker updrafts allow the warm rain process to reduce competition for diffusional growth of the less dense ice expected to persist in convective outflow.

Reflectivity↗

NASA NTRS1992

Model flight tests of a spin-resistant trainer configuration

Powered, radio-controlled flight tests were conducted on a 1/4-scale model of a spin-resistant trainer configuration to determine the stall departure and spin resistance characteristics provided by an outboard wing leading-edge droop modification. The model was instrumented to provide quantitative as well as qualitative information on flight characteristics. Flight test results indicated that the unmodified configuration (wing leading-edge droop off) exhibited an abrupt, uncontrollable roll departure at the stall. With the outboard wing leading-edge droop installed, the modified configuration exhibited flight characteristics that were resistant to stall departure and spin entry. The stall departure and spin resistance characteristics of the modified configuration were demonstrated in flight maneuvers that included idle-power stalls, full-power stalls, sideslip stalls, and accelerated stalls.

Yip, Long P.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Load distribution on a closed-coupled wing canard at transonic speeds

A wind tunnel test where load distributions were obtained at transonic speeds on both the canard and wing surfaces of a closely coupled wing canard configuration is reported. Detailed component and configuration arrangement studies to provide insight into the various aerodynamic interference effects for the leading edge vortex flow conditions encountered are included. Data indicate that increasing the Mach number from 0.70 to 0.95 caused the wing leading edge vortex to burst over the wing when the wing was in the presence of the high canard.

Gloss, B. B.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Surface-Pressure and Flow-Visualization Data at Mach Number of 1.60 for Three 65 deg Delta Wings Varying in Leading-Edge Radius and Camber

An experimental investigation of the effect of leading-edge radius, camber, Reynolds number, and boundary-layer state on the incipient separation of a delta wing at supersonic speeds was conducted at the Langley Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel at Mach number of 1.60 over a free-stream Reynolds number range of 1 x 106 to 5 x 106 ft-1. The three delta wing models examined had a 65 deg swept leading edge and varied in cross-sectional shape: a sharp wedge, a 20:1 ellipse, and a 20:1 ellipse with a -9.750 circular camber imposed across the span. The wings were tested with and without transition grit applied. Surface-pressure coefficient data and flow-visualization data indicated that by rounding the wing leading edge or cambering the wing in the spanwise direction, the onset of leading-edge separation on a delta wing can be raised to a higher angle of attack than that observed on a sharp-edged delta wing. The data also showed that the onset of leading-edge separation can be raised to a higher angle of attack by forcing boundary-layer transition to occur closer to the wing leading edge by the application of grit or the increase in free-stream Reynolds number.

McMillin, S. Naomi↗

NASA NTRS2000

Formation of Leading-Edge Pinholes in the Space Shuttle Wings Investigated

The space shuttle wing leading edge and nose cap are composed of a carbon/carbon composite that is protected by silicon carbide. The coefficient of thermal expansion mismatch leads to cracks in the silicon carbide. The outer coating of the silicon carbide is a sodium-silicate-based glass that becomes fluid at the shuttles high reentry temperatures and fills these cracks. Small pinholes roughly 0.1 mm in diameter have been observed on these materials after 12 or more flights. These pinholes have been investigated by researchers at the NASA Johnson Space Center, Rockwell International, the Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation, and the NASA Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field to determine the possible sources and the extent of damage. A typical pinhole is illustrated in the photomicrographs. These pinholes are found primarily on the wing leading edges and not on the nose cap, which is covered when the orbiter is on the launch pad. The pinholes are generally associated with a bead of zincrich glass. Examination of the orbiter and launch structure indicates that weathering paint on the launch structure leads to deposits of zinc-containing paint flakes on the wing leading edge. These may become embedded in the crevices of the wing leading edge and form the observed zinc-rich glass. Laboratory experiments indicate that zinc oxide reacts vigorously with the glass coating on the silicon carbide. Thus, it is likely that this is the reaction that leads to pinhole formation (Christensen, S.V.: Reinforced Carbon/Carbon Pin Hole Formation Through Zinc Oxide Attack. Rockwell International Internal Letter, RDW 96 057, May 1996). Cross-sectional examination of pinholes suggests that they are enlarged thermal expansion mismatch cracks. This is illustrated in the photomicrographs. A careful microstructural analysis indicates that the pinhole walls consist of layers of zinc-containing glass. Thus, pinholes are likely formed by zinc oxide particles lodging in crevices and forming a corrosive zinc-rich glass that enlarges existing cracks. Having established the likely source of the pinholes, we next needed to model the damage. Our concern was that if a pinhole went through the silicon carbide to the carbon/carbon substrate, oxygen would have a clear path to oxidize the carbon at high temperatures. This possibility was examined with studies in a laboratory furnace. An ultrasonic drill was used to make artificial pinholes in a sample of protected carbon/carbon. After exposure, the specimens were weighed and cross-sectioned to quantify the extent of oxidation below the pinhole. The results at higher temperatures showed good agreement with a simple diffusion-control model. This model is based on the two-step oxidation of carbon to carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide. The fluxes are illustrated in the final figure. The model indicates a strong dependence on pinhole diameter. For smaller diameters and short times, the oxidation of carbon is very limited.

Jacobson, Nathan S.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evolution of the Thermodynamic Properties of Clusters of Galaxies out to Redshift of 1.8

The thermodynamic properties of the hot plasma in galaxy clusters retains information on the processes leading to the formation and evolution of the gas in their deep, dark matter potential wells. These processes are dictated not only by gravity but also by gas physics, e.g. AGN feedback and turbulence. Here, we study the thermodynamic properties, e.g. density, temperature, pressure, and entropy, of the most massive and the most distant (z > 1.2) SPT-selected clusters, and compare them with those of the nearby clusters (z < 0.1) to constrain their evolution as a function of time and radius. We find that thermodynamic properties in the outskirts of high redshift clusters are remarkably similar to the low redshift clusters, and their evolution follows the prediction of the self-similar model. Their intrinsic scatter is larger, indicating that the physical properties that lead to the formation and virialization of cluster outskirts show evolving variance. On the other hand, thermodynamic properties in the cluster cores deviates significantly from self-similarity indicating that the processes that regulate the core are already in place in these very high redshift clusters. This result is supported by the unevolving physical scatter of all thermodynamic quantities in cluster cores.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evolution of the Thermodynamic Properties of Clusters of Galaxies out to Redshift of 1.8

The thermodynamic properties of the hot plasma in galaxy clusters retains information on the processes leading to the formation and evolution of the gas in their deep, dark matter potential wells. These processes are dictated not only by gravity but also by gas physics, e.g. AGN feedback and turbulence. In this work, we study the thermodynamic properties, e.g. density, temperature, pressure, and entropy, of the most massive and the most distant ($z > 1.2$) SPT-selected clusters, and compare them with those of the nearby clusters ($z<0.1$) to constrain their evolution as a function of time and radius. We find that thermodynamic properties in the outskirts of high redshift clusters are remarkably similar to the low redshift clusters, and their evolution follows the prediction of the self-similar model. Their intrinsic scatter is larger, indicating that the physical properties that lead to the formation and virialization of cluster outskirts show evolving variance. On the other hand, thermodynamic properties in the cluster cores deviates significantly from self-similarity indicating that the processes that regulate the core are already in place in these very high redshift clusters. This result is supported by the unevolving physical scatter of all thermodynamic quantities in cluster cores.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1996

Surface-Pressure and Flow-Visualization Data at Mach Number of 1.60 for Three 65 deg Delta Wings Varying in Leading-Edge Radius and Camber

An experimental investigation of the effect of leading-edge radius, camber, Reynolds number, and boundary-layer state on the incipient separation of a delta wing at supersonic speeds was conducted at the Langley Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel at Mach number of 1.60 over a free-stream Reynolds number range of 1 x 106 to 5 x 106 ft-1. The three delta wing models examined had a 65 deg swept leading edge and varied in cross-sectional shape: a sharp wedge, a 20:1 ellipse, and a 20:1 ellipse with a -9.750 circular camber imposed across the span. The wings were tested with and without transition grit applied. Surface-pressure coefficient data and flow-visualization data are electronically stored on the CD-ROM. The data indicated that by rounding the wing leading edge or cambering the wing in the spanwise direction, the onset of leading-edge separation on a delta wing can be raised to a higher angle of attack than that observed on a sharp-edged delta wing. The data also showed that the onset of leading-edge separation can be raised to a higher angle of attack by forcing boundary-layer transition to occur closer to the wing leading edge by the application of grit or the increase in free-stream Reynolds number.

McMIllin, S. Naomi↗

NASA NTRS2002

Intermittent Flow Regimes in a Transonic Fan Airfoil Cascade

A study was conducted in the NASA Glenn Research Center linear cascade on the intermittent flow on the suction surface of an airfoil section from the tip region of a modern low aspect ratio fan blade. Experimental results revealed that, at a large incidence angle, a range of transonic inlet Mach numbers exist where the leading-edge shock-wave pattern was unstable. Flush mounted high frequency response pressure transducers indicated large local jumps in the pressure in the leading edge area, which generates large intermittent loading on the blade leading edge. These measurements suggest that for an inlet Mach number between 0.9 and 1.0 the flow is bi-stable, randomly switching between subsonic and supersonic flows. Hence, it appears that the change in overall flow conditions in the transonic region is based on the frequency of switching between two stable flow states rather than on the continuous increase of the flow velocity. To date, this flow behavior has only been observed in a linear transonic cascade. Further research is necessary to confirm this phenomenon occurs in actual transonic fans and is not the byproduct of an endwall restricted linear cascade.

Lepicovsky, J.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Toward Integrated Seasonal Predictions of Land and Ocean Carbon Flux: Lessons from the 2015-16 El Nino

Seasonal forecasts made by coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) are increasingly able to provide skillful forecasts of climate anomalies. At some centers, the capabilities of these models are being expanded to represent carbon-climate feedbacks including ocean biogeochemistry (OB), terrestrial biosphere (TB) interactions, and fires. These advances raise the question of whether such models can support skillful forecasts of carbon fluxes.Here, we examine whether land and ocean carbon flux anomalies associated with the 2015-16 El Nino could have been predicted months in advance. This El Nino was noteworthy for the magnitude of the ocean temperature perturbation, the skill with which this perturbation was predicted, and the extensive satellite observations that can be used to track its impact. We explore this topic using NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model, which routinely produces an ensemble of seasonal climate forecasts, and a suite of offline dynamical and statistical models that estimate carbon flux processes. Using GEOS forecast fields from 2015-16 to force flux model hindcasts shows that these models are able to reproduce significant features observed by satellites. Specifically, OB hindcasts are able to predict anomalies in chlorophyll distributions with lead times of 3-4 months. The ability of TB hindcasts to reproduce NDVI anomalies is driven by the skill of the climate forecast, which is greatest at short lead times over tropical landmasses. Statistical fire forecasts driven by ocean climate indices are able to predict burned area in the tropics with lead times of 3-12 months. We also integrate the ocean and land hindcast fluxes into the GEOS GCM to examine the magnitude of the atmospheric carbon dioxide anomaly and compare with satellite and ground-based observations.While seasonal forecasting remains an active area of research, these results demonstrate that forecasts of carbon flux processes can support a variety of applications, potentially allowing scientists to understand carbon-climate feedbacks as they happen and to capitalize on more flexible satellite technologies that allow areas of interest to be targeted with lead times of weeks to months. We also provide a first glimpse at the spring 2019 carbon forecast using the GEOS-based forecasting system.

Ott, L.↗