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NASA NTRS2024

Celebrating 10 Years of the Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project and Looking to the Future

The conference clearly demonstrated the increasing interest and growth of the scientific community working on the development and application of sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction since the start of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP)/World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction project in 2013. The conference, which was held at the University of Reading (United Kingdom), was organized into three main themes as briefly summarized below, with eleven invited talks, 74 oral contributed talks, and 101 posters. The conference also included a two-hour breakout session, wherein eight groups discussed the current state and prospect for S2S prediction, and an early career researcher event. A summary of these discussions and recommendations is presented below. The conference web page (https://research.reading.ac.uk/s2s-summit2023/) is archived at the University of Reading. Introductory comments by representatives of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) WWRP and WCRP emphasized the importance of the weather–climate linkage, targeted by S2S forecasts (from 2 weeks to a season ahead), addressing the challenges of creating “end-to-end” forecasts that encompass the entire climate-services chain from the prediction science and forecast, to the development and issuing of forecast products tailored to informing user-decisions. They also emphasized the efficacy of multi-model ensemble efforts and databases to foster collaborations internationally and between operational centres and academia. Although the WWRP/WCRP S2S project comes to an end in 2023, S2S prediction will remain an important focus for WWRP and WCRP. In WWRP, a new project called SAGE (Sub-seasonal to seasonal predictions for Agriculture and Environment) will start in 2024. Another important legacy of the S2S project will be the maintenance of the S2S database (Vitart et al. 2017) and the establishment of a WMO Lead Center for sub-seasonal prediction multi-model ensemble (LC-SSPMME) which will provide real-time multi-model S2S climate information. In two keynote presentations, Prof. Brian Hoskins (University of Reading) and Dr. Gilbert Brunet (Australian Bureau of Meteorology) discussed the potential of S2S predictability and the ongoing journey for understanding and improving these predictions. This conference was a sequel to the International Conference on Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (Robertson et al., 2014) which took place in College Park (Maryland, USA) in February 2014 to celebrate the start of the WWRP/WCRP S2S project, and to WCRP and WWRP conferences in Boulder, USA, in 2018 (Merryfield et al., 2020). A significant development compared to the previous S2S conferences was the large number of presentations on research to operation (R2O) and S2S applications and on the use of artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) methods for S2S prediction. Some of these methods provide empirical S2S forecasts which are competitive with state-of-the-art dynamical models. Other presentations demonstrated that AI/ML can provide alternative calibration of dynamical model outputs to traditional methods. Several talks and posters highlighted the increasing use of AI/ML, including deep learning, in S2S forecast post-processing and using AI to identify higher flow-dependent skill. Finally, some presentations demonstrated the value of AI/ML methods for a better understanding of S2S sources of predictability and attribution of extreme events.

S. J. Woolnough↗
NASA NTRS2017

A 3D Active Learning Application for NeMO-Net, the NASA Neural Multi-Modal Observation and Training Network for Global Coral Reef Assessment

NeMO-Net, the NASA neural multi-modal observation and training network for global coral reef assessment, is an open-source deep convolutional neural network and interactive active learning training software aiming to accurately assess the present and past dynamics of coral reef ecosystems through determination of percent living cover and morphology as well as mapping of spatial distribution. We present an interactive video game prototype for tablet and mobile devices where users interactively label morphology classifications over mm-scale 3D coral reef imagery captured using fluid lensing to create a dataset that will be used to train NeMO-Nets convolutional neural network. The application currently allows for users to classify preselected regions of coral in the Pacific and will be expanded to include additional regions captured using our NASA FluidCam instrument, presently the highest-resolution remote sensing benthic imaging technology capable of removing ocean wave distortion, as well as lower-resolution airborne remote sensing data from the ongoing NASA CORAL campaign. Active learning applications present a novel methodology for efficiently training large-scale Neural Networks wherein variances in identification can be rapidly mitigated against control data. NeMO-Net periodically checks users input against pre-classified coral imagery to gauge their accuracy and utilize in-game mechanics to provide classification training. Users actively communicate with a server and are requested to classify areas of coral for which other users had conflicting classifications and contribute their input to a larger database for ranking. In partnering with Mission Blue and IUCN, NeMO-Net leverages an international consortium of subject matter experts to classify areas of confusion identified by NeMO-Net and generate additional labels crucial for identifying decision boundary locations in coral reef assessment.

NeMO=NET↗
NASA NTRS1988

Emulating a flexible space structure: Modeling

Control Dynamics, in conjunction with Marshall Space Flight Center, has participated in the modeling and testing of Flexible Space Structures. Through the series of configurations tested and the many techniques used for collecting, analyzing, and modeling the data, many valuable insights have been gained and important lessons learned. This paper discusses the background of the Large Space Structure program, Control Dynamics' involvement in testing and modeling of the configurations (especially the Active Control Technique Evaluation for Spacecraft (ACES) configuration), the results from these two processes, and insights gained from this work.

Waites, H. B.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Expanding NeMO-Net Machine Learning Capabilities for Citizen Science

NASA NeMO-Net, the neural multi-modal observation and training network for global coral reef assessment, is an open-source deep convolutional neural network and interactive active learning training software aiming to accurately assess the present and past dynamics of coral reef ecosystems through determination of percent living cover and morphology as well as mapping of spatial distribution. We present an interactive citizen science video game, released this April, for desktop and iOS devices where users interactively label morphology classifications over mm-scale 3D coral reef imagery captured using diver photomosaic imagery, the UAV enabled NASA FluidCam instrument, and satellite datasets. To date, the application has had over 40,000 downloads and over60,000 unique coral reef classifications, each filtered through a user-based rating and expert evaluation system. We also present results from NeMO-Net’s convolutional neural network (CNN) models used to semantically segment 2D satellite imagery as well as projections of 3D coral reconstructions using user input data as training datasets. Fusing datasets using machine learning from multiple remote sensing platforms presents novel methodologies for assessing the health of coral ecosystems, which are critically endangered by a changing climate. In partnering with Mission Blue, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the Living Oceans Foundation (LOF), NeMO-Net leverages an international consortium of subject matter experts to provide both proper training for citizen scientists and the generation of a labeled datasets to ingest into machine learning algorithms for global coral reef identification.

NeMO-Net↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Expanding NeMO-Net Machine Learning Capabilities for Citizen Science

NASA NeMO-Net, the neural multi-modal observation and training network for global coral reef assessment, is an open-source deep convolutional neural network and interactive active learning training software aiming to accurately assess the present and past dynamics of coral reef ecosystems through determination of percent living cover and morphology as well as mapping of spatial distribution. We present an interactive citizen science video game, released this April, for desktop and iOS devices where users interactively label morphology classifications over mm-scale 3D coral reef imagery captured using diver photomosaic imagery, the UAV enabled NASA FluidCam instrument, and satellite datasets. To date, the application has had over 40,000 downloads and over 60,000 unique coral reef classifications, each filtered through a user-based rating and expert evaluation system. We also present results from NeMO-Net’s convolutional neural network (CNN) models used to semantically segment 2D satellite imagery as well as projections of 3D coral reconstructions using user input data as training datasets. Fusing datasets using machine learning from multiple remote sensing platforms presents novel methodologies for assessing the health of coral ecosystems, which are critically endangered by a changing climate. In partnering with Mission Blue, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the Living Oceans Foundation (LOF), NeMO-Net leverages an international consortium of subject matter experts to provide both proper training for citizen scientists and the generation of a labeled datasets to ingest into machine learning algorithms for global coral reef identification.

NeMO-Net↗
NASA NTRS2020

Evaluation of global terrestrial evapotranspiration using state-of-the-art approaches in remote sensing, machine learning and land surface modeling

Evapotranspiration (ET) is critical in linking global water, carbon and energy cycles. However, direct measurement of global terrestrial ET is not feasible. Here, we first reviewed the basic theory and state-of-the-art approaches for estimating global terrestrial ET, including remote-sensing-based physical models, machine-learning algorithms and land surface models (LSMs). We then utilized 4 remote-sensing-based physical models, 2 machine-learning algorithms and 14 LSMs to analyze the spatial and temporal variations in global terrestrial ET. The results showed that the ensemble means of annual global terrestrial ET estimated by these three categories of approaches agreed well, with values ranging from 589.6 mm/yr (6.56×10^4 cu.km/yr) to 617.1 mm/yr (6.87×10^4 cu.km/yr). For the period from 1982 to 2011, both the ensembles of remote-sensing-based physical models and machine-learning algorithms suggested increasing trends in global terrestrial ET (0.62 mm/sq.yr with a significance level of p<0.05 and 0.38 mm yr−2 with a significance level of p<0.05, respectively). In contrast, the ensemble mean of the LSMs showed no statistically significant change (0.23 mm/sq.yr, p>0.05), although many of the individual LSMs reproduced an increasing trend. Nevertheless, all 20 models used in this study showed that anthropogenic Earth greening had a positive role in increasing terrestrial ET. The concurrent small interannual variability, i.e., relative stability, found in all estimates of global terrestrial ET, suggests that a potential planetary boundary exists in regulating global terrestrial ET, with the value of this boundary being around 600 mm/yr. Uncertainties among approaches were identified in specific regions, particularly in the Amazon Basin and arid/semiarid regions. Improvements in parameterizing water stress and canopy dynamics, the utilization of new available satellite retrievals and deep-learning methods, and model–data fusion will advance our predictive understanding of global terrestrial ET.

surface modeling↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Strategies for the GPU Implementation of the OVERFLOW CFD Code

Wondering how to port a large, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solver, written in Fortran, to run effectively on GPUs? Join this talk to learn about the strategies NASA’s OVERFLOW CFD code has used to effectively utilize GPUs to greatly improve the time to solution compared to CPUs. OVERFLOW is an overset, structured grid, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) flow solver developed by NASA and widely used by government, US industry, and academia. It is known for its effective use of CPU hardware, but this talk will discuss recent efforts to modify the code to run efficiently on GPUs. We will describe our use of OpenACC, CUDA Fortran, and CUDA C++, discussing why and how we use each to map our problem onto NVIDIA GPUs. We will also describe structural changes we made in the code to expose enough parallelism to effectively use the GPU hardware. Finally, we will present the performance benefits from running OVERFLOW on GPUs compared to the well optimized CPU version of the code.

GPU Programming↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling Ring-Opening Polymerization with Machine-Learned Committors

Many important industrial and biological processes depend on ring-opening polymerization (ROP), including large-scale production polymers, such as nylon 6, and a variety of biodegradable polymers and high-performance resins. Large-scale simulations (>200K atoms) of ROP were performed using a deep neural network-based method that captured the effect of the local chemical environment of the reactive sites using training data from quantum chemical methods. The utility of this method was demonstrated by modeling the cationic ROP of bis-benzoxazine, a promising resin for use in advanced high-temperature application composites (>200°C). Density functional theory calculations were used to map out the various ring opening and polymerization reaction paths that occur during the thermal processing of bis-benzoxazine. The probabilities of these reactions, as a function of local atomic configurations, were used to construct committor functions using a neural network approach. The learned committor functions were then used to determine when a particular reaction occurred within the REACTER framework for reactive molecular dynamics simulations. The experimentally observed exotherm that occurs during bis-benzoxazine ROP was captured in an effective manner in the simulations by imposing a local heating of the system that corresponds to the enthalpy of reaction for each reaction. The dependence of the final polymer morphology on the ROP reaction temperature was analyzed at the molecular scale. The results presented in this work indicate that machine-learned committor functions are a promising approach for incorporating high-fidelity reactivity criteria that capture the effect of local chemical environments into large-scale polymerization simulations.

machine learning, polymer simulations, molecular d↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Construction of a Fluid Flowfield from Discrete Point Data using Machine Learning

Many verification and validation procedures in aerospace engineering involve the comparison of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) data to experimental results from sources like wind tunnel tests. However, an incongruity exists between the data available from these sources: flow visualization is available by default in computational data, whereas in most experimental setups the available data is far more discrete and far more limited: integrated forces and moments, discrete pressure and temperature probes, etc. When differences exist between quantities of interest like lift and drag coefficients, the lack of full-field flow data from the experiments complicates most attempts to reconcile why the different data sources disagree. To this end, a shallow neural network, constrained by certain fluid flow properties, was trained to approximate flow field snapshots given only discrete data like that available in a wind tunnel test. The constructed snapshots, even for complex incompressible fluid flows, were found to agree at the large scales with the true flow fields. With this tool, researchers can more readily and easily understand why quantities of interest differ between their experimental and computational datasets. This in turn improves the resulting data's uncertainty measures.

Yury Lebedev↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Construction of a Fluid Flowfield from Discrete Point Data using Machine Learning

Many verification and validation procedures in aerospace engineering involve the comparison of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) data to experimental results from sources like wind tunnel tests. However, an incongruity exists between the data available from these sources: flow visualization is available by default in computational data, whereas in most experimental setups the available data is far more discrete and far more limited: integrated forces and moments, discrete pressure and temperature probes, etc. When differences exist between quantities of interest like lift and drag coefficients, the lack of full-field flow data from the experiments complicates most attempts to reconcile why the different data sources disagree. To this end, a shallow neural network, constrained by certain fluid flow properties, was trained to approximate flow field snapshots given only discrete data like that available in a wind tunnel test. The constructed snapshots, even for complex incompressible fluid flows, were found to agree at the large scales with the true flow fields. With this tool, researchers can more readily and easily understand why quantities of interest differ between their experimental and computational datasets. This in turn improves the resulting data's uncertainty measures.

Yury Lebedev↗
NASA NTRS2008

Developing Humanoid Robots for Real-World Environments

Humanoids are steadily improving in appearance and functionality demonstrated in controlled environments. To address the challenges of operation in the real-world, researchers have proposed the use of brain-inspired architectures for robot control, and the use of robot learning techniques that enable the robot to acquire and tune skills and behaviours. In the first part of the paper we introduce new concepts and results in these two areas. First, we present a cerebellum-inspired model that demonstrated efficiency in the sensory-motor control of anthropomorphic arms, and in gait control of dynamic walkers. Then, we present a set of new ideas related to robot learning, emphasizing the importance of developing teaching techniques that support learning. In the second part of the paper we propose the use in robotics of the iterative and incremental development methodologies, in the context of practical task-oriented applications. These methodologies promise to rapidly reach system-level integration, and to early identify system-level weaknesses to focus on. We apply this methodology in a task targeting the automated assembly of a modular structure using HOAP-2. We confirm this approach led to rapid development of a end-to-end capability, and offered guidance on which technologies to focus on for gradual improvement of a complete functional system. It is believed that providing Grand Challenge type milestones in practical task-oriented applications accelerates development. As a meaningful target in short-mid term we propose the 'IKEA Challenge', aimed at the demonstration of autonomous assembly of various pieces of furniture, from the box, following included written/drawn instructions.

Stoica, Adrian↗
NASA NTRS1987

Task path planning, scheduling and learning for free-ranging robot systems

The development of robotics applications for space operations is often restricted by the limited movement available to guided robots. Free ranging robots can offer greater flexibility than physically guided robots in these applications. Presented here is an object oriented approach to path planning and task scheduling for free-ranging robots that allows the dynamic determination of paths based on the current environment. The system also provides task learning for repetitive jobs. This approach provides a basis for the design of free-ranging robot systems which are adaptable to various environments and tasks.

Wakefield, G. Steve↗
NASA NTRS2026

Proactive Wildfire Management: A Remote Sensing and Multimodal CNN-MLP Architecture for Ignition Risk Forecasting

As the frequency and intensity of wildfires increase, with fire seasons now starting earlier and ending later than they have over the past decades, current monitoring systems, such as lookout towers and satellites, are hindered by cloud cover, low-resolution imagery, and static data gaps that fail to track vegetation moisture levels fast enough to catch rapid pre-ignition changes. This report proposes a Machine Learning-enabled Wildfire Ignition Prediction framework that combines satellite monitoring with dynamic and high-resolution remote sensing from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) swarms. The method would use multispectral and thermal data from the Landsat program to create a baseline for vegetation health, calculating a two-band Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2) and the moisture content of the vegetation. These inputs will later be fused with microscale UAV weather data, including thermal hotspots found through thick canopies, hyperspectral chemical signatures of pre-visual combustion, and local weather streams. The multispectral satellite, multispectral Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), and thermal data would then be processed through a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), alongside a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) for the micro-weather telemetry. The outputs of these networks would be fused into a single feature representation and passed through a final prediction network to generate real-time ignition risk scores and hotspot alerts. Model performance would be assessed using standard classification metrics, including a Receiver Operating Characteristic - Area Under the Curve (ROC AUC) and F1 score. This system would allow first responders to identify high-risk zones and intervene before ignition occurs, improving emergency response time compared to current approaches.

machine learning↗
NASA NTRS1987

Dynamics of long period comets

The appearance of Halley's Comet in 1985 to 1986 and the related emphasis on research on physical models of cometary nuclei, led to a more moderate pace for the dynamical studies of the Oort cloud and the motion of long-period comets this year. Specific areas studied included the dynamical evolution of cometary showers as a result of stars passages through the inner Oort cloud and the possible relationship to observed stepwise mass extinctions at geological boundaries, revised estimates for the total mass of comets in the Oort cloud as a result of lessons learned from the spacecraft encounters with Halley's Comet, and study of the possible dynamical sources for the short-period comets in the solar system as part of a wider study of physical processing of cometary nuclei prior to their becoming visible comets. The work on cometary showers used a Monte Carlo simulation of the evolution of cometary orbits under a combination of planetary, nongravitational, and stellar perturbations, and with physical removal by disruption, sublimation of all volatiles, and collision.

Weissman, Paul R.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Cascade Error Projection: An Efficient Hardware Learning Algorithm

A new learning algorithm termed cascade error projection (CEP) is presented. CEP is an adaption of a constructive architecture from cascade correlation and the dynamical stepsize of A/D conversion from the cascade back propagation algorithm.

learning algorithm pattern recognition cascade err↗
NASA NTRS1989

An improved adaptive control for repetitive motion of robots

An adaptive control algorithm is proposed for a class of nonlinear systems, such as robotic manipulators, which is capable of improving its performance in repetitive motions. When the task is repeated, the error between the desired trajectory and that of the system is guaranteed to decrease. The design is based on the combination of a direct adaptive control and a learning process. This method does not require any knowledge of the dynamic parameters of the system.

Pourboghrat, F.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Planets around pulsars - Implications for planetary formation

Data on planets around pulsars are summarized, and different models intended to explain the formation mechanism are described. Both theoretical and observational evidence suggest that very special circumstances are required for the formation of planetary systems around pulsars, namely, the prior presence of a millisecond pulsar with a close binary companion, probably a low mass main-sequence star. It is concluded that the discovery of two planets around PSR 1257+12 is important for better understanding the problems of dynamics and stellar evolution. The process of planetary formation should be learned through intensive studies of the properties of disks near young objects and application of techniques for detection of planets around main-sequence solar-type stars.

Bodenheimer, Peter↗
NASA NTRS1988

Biomedical support of man in space

In its broadest sense, biomedical support of man in space must not be limited to assisting spacecraft crew during the mission; such support should also ensure that flight personnel be able to perform properly during landing and after leaving the craft. Man has developed mechanisms that allow him to cope with specific stresses in his normal habitat; there is indisputable evidence that, in some cases, the space environment, by relieving these stresses, has also allowed the adaptive mechanisms to lapse, causing serious problems after re-entry. Inflight biomedical support must therefore include means to simulate some of the normal stresses of the Earth environment. In the area of cardiovascular performance, we have come to rely heavily on complex feedback mechanisms to cope with two stresses, often combined: postural changes, which alter the body axis along which gravitational acceleration acts, and physical exercise, which increases the total load on the system. Unless the appropriate responses are reinforced continuously during flight, crew members may be incapacitated upon return. The first step in the support process must be a study of the way in which changes in g, even of short duration, affect these responses. In particular we should learn more about effects of g on the "on" and "off" dynamics, using a variety of approaches: increased acceleration on one hand at recumbency, immersion, lower body positive pressure, and other means of simulating some of the effects of low g, on the other. Once we understand this, we will have to determine the minimal exposure dose required to maintain the response mechanisms. Finally, we shall have to design stresses that simulate Earth environment and can be imposed in the space vehicle. Some of the information is already at hand; we know that several aspects of the response to exercise are affected by posture. Results from a current series of studies on the kinetics of tilt and on the dynamics of readjustment to exercise in different postures will be presented and discussed.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗