Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “load forecast”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

203 records · Page 12

Quantifying the Aerosol Semi-Direct Effect in the NASA GEOS-5 AGCM

Aerosols such as black carbon, dust, and some organic carbon species both scatter and absorb incoming solar radiation. This direct aerosol radiative forcing (DARF) redistributes solar energy both by cooling the surface and warming the atmosphere. As a result, these aerosols affect atmospheric stability and cloud cover (the semi-direct effect, or SDE). Furthermore, in regions with persistent high loadings of absorbing aerosols (e.g. Asia), regional circulation patterns may be altered, potentially resulting in changes in precipitation patterns. Here we investigate aerosol-climate coupling using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model version 5 (GEOS-5) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), in which we have implemented an online version of the Goddard Chemistry, Aerosol, Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model. GOCART includes representations of the sources, sinks, and chemical transformation of externally mixed dust, sea salt, sulfate, and carbonaceous aerosols. We examine a series of free-running ensemble climate simulations of the present-day period (2000-2009) forced by observed sea surface temperatures to determine the impact of aerosols on the model climate. The SDE and response of each simulation is determined by differencing with respect to the control simulation (no aerosol forcing). In a free-running model, any estimate of the SDE includes changes in clouds due both to atmospheric heating from aerosols and changes in circulation. To try and quantify the SDE without these circulation changes we then examine the DARF and SDE in GEOS-5 with prescribed meteorological analyses introduced by the MERRA analysis. By doing so, we are able to examine changes in model clouds that occur on shorter scales (six hours). In the GEOS-5 data assimilation system (DAS), the analysis is defined as the best estimate of the atmospheric state at any given time, and it is determined by optimally combining a first-guess short-term GCM forecast with all available observations. The Incremental Analysis Update (IAU) is added to the model forecast tendencies to align them with the analysis every six hours, thus preventing longer timescale feedbacks due to the aerosol forcing. We calculate the SDE by comparing model runs with and without aerosols, and the difference in the IAU between these runs is a useful metric with which to evaluate the impact of the SDE on the model atmosphere and clouds. Decreasing the IAU indicates that the aerosol direct and semi-direct effects act to reduce the bias between the model and observations and vice versa.

Randles, Cynthia A.↗

Data Communications Performance of AOCDL and AUTOMET Over a VDL Mode 2 Link

Airline Operational Control Data Link (AOCDL) is a service that allows for downlink of in-flight data to help an airline operate efficiently. Automated Meteorological Transmission (AUTOMET) is a weather reporting system that provides forecasts and atmospheric conditions to pilots during flight. These are two examples of new or extended services that will be enabled by implementation of the ATN and its digital air/ground communications data links. One of the possible data links identified for these services is VDL Mode 2. This research focuses on the data link performance of AOCDL and AUTOMET services in a 2015 scenario using VDL Mode 2 as the data link. In the near term, it is expected that the Controller-Pilot Data Link Communication (CPDLC) and Decision Support System Data Link (DSSDL) services will also use the VDL Mode 2 link. CPDLC and DSSDL are high-priority services that communicate aircraft control information and require low end-to-end delays for safety. VDL Mode 3, which is the preferred link for these services because it provides priority-based link access, will not be deployed in time for earlier implementations of these services to use. As such, the research also investigates the impact of CPDLC and DSSDL services on the same VDL link as AOCDL and AUTOMET. Performance of these services over the data link will be separately examined for the airport, terminal, and en route domains. OPNET simulations are performed for each domain. The number of aircraft for each domain is representative of the expected peak aircraft in 2015. Results are collected during a steady-state condition, with aircraft neither entering nor exiting the domain. The study explores the services in terms of the traffic load they present to the VDL Mode 2 radio. The amount of load each service contributes to the data link will be shown for each domain. The end-to-end delays for each service will be discussed. Data link metrics such as subnetwork and queuing delays, channel utilization, and protocol overhead will be used to show the impact of these services on VDL Mode 2. All results will be presented both with and without the inclusion of CPDLC and DSSDL services.

Bretmersky, Steven↗

Seasonal variability of wake impacts on US mid-Atlantic offshore wind plant power production

Abstract. The mid-Atlantic will experience rapid wind plant development due to its promising wind resource located near large population centers. Wind turbines and wind plants create wakes, or regions of reduced wind speed, that may negatively affect downwind turbines and plants. We evaluate wake variability and annual energy production with the first yearlong modeling assessment using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, deploying 12 MW turbines across the domain at a density of 3.14 MW km−2, matching the planned density of 3 MW km−2. Using a series of simulations with no wind plants, one wind plant, and complete build-out of lease areas, we calculate wake effects and distinguish the effect of wakes generated internally within one plant from those generated externally between plants. We also provide a first step towards uncertainty quantification by testing the amount of added turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) by 0 % and 100 %. We provide a sensitivity analysis by additionally comparing 25 % and 50 % for a short case study period. The strongest wakes, propagating 55 km, occur in summertime stable stratification, just when New England's grid demand peaks in summer. The seasonal variability of wakes in this offshore region is much stronger than the diurnal variability of wakes. Overall, yearlong simulated wake impacts reduce power output by a range between 38.2 % and 34.1 % (for 0 %–100 % added TKE). Internal wakes cause greater yearlong power losses, from 29.2 % to 25.7 %, compared to external wakes, from 14.7 % to 13.4 %. The overall impact is different from the linear sum of internal wakes and external wakes due to non-linear processes. Additional simulations quantify wake uncertainty by modifying the added amount of turbulent kinetic energy from wind turbines, introducing power output variability of 3.8 %. Finally, we compare annual energy production to New England grid demand and find that the lease areas can supply 58.8 % to 61.2 % of annual load. We note that the results of this assessment are not intended to make nor are they suitable to make commercial judgments about specific wind projects.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Parallelization of the Physical-Space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS)

Atmospheric data assimilation is a method of combining observations with model forecasts to produce a more accurate description of the atmosphere than the observations or forecast alone can provide. Data assimilation plays an increasingly important role in the study of climate and atmospheric chemistry. The NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO) has developed the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS) to create assimilated datasets. The core computational components of the GEOS DAS include the GEOS General Circulation Model (GCM) and the Physical-space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS). The need for timely validation of scientific enhancements to the data assimilation system poses computational demands that are best met by distributed parallel software. PSAS is implemented in Fortran 90 using object-based design principles. The analysis portions of the code solve two equations. The first of these is the "innovation" equation, which is solved on the unstructured observation grid using a preconditioned conjugate gradient (CG) method. The "analysis" equation is a transformation from the observation grid back to a structured grid, and is solved by a direct matrix-vector multiplication. Use of a factored-operator formulation reduces the computational complexity of both the CG solver and the matrix-vector multiplication, rendering the matrix-vector multiplications as a successive product of operators on a vector. Sparsity is introduced to these operators by partitioning the observations using an icosahedral decomposition scheme. PSAS builds a large (approx. 128MB) run-time database of parameters used in the calculation of these operators. Implementing a message passing parallel computing paradigm into an existing yet developing computational system as complex as PSAS is nontrivial. One of the technical challenges is balancing the requirements for computational reproducibility with the need for high performance. The problem of computational reproducibility is well known in the parallel computing community. It is a requirement that the parallel code perform calculations in a fashion that will yield identical results on different configurations of processing elements on the same platform. In some cases this problem can be solved by sacrificing performance. Meeting this requirement and still achieving high performance is very difficult. Topics to be discussed include: current PSAS design and parallelization strategy; reproducibility issues; load balance vs. database memory demands, possible solutions to these problems.

Larson, J. W.↗

Modeling and Analysis of Stirling Power Convertors

Modeling and Analysis of Stirling Power Convertors Luis A. Rodriguez1 Steven M. Geng, Terry V. Reid, Scott D. Wilson NASA Glenn Research Center, Cleveland, OH, 44135, USA NASA Glenn’s Thermal Energy Conversion Branch is supporting the development of the next generation free-piston Stirling power convertors. American Superconductor (AMSC) and Sunpower Inc. are the two firms under contract to develop the Flexure Isotope Stirling Convertor (FISC) and the Sunpower Robust Stirling Convertor (SRSC), respectively. To comprehend and forecast convertor performance, Sage, ANSYS® Maxwell, and ANSYS® Fluent were used to model the Stirling thermodynamic cycle, alternator electromagnetics, and piston and displacer dynamics. I. Introduction Stirling convertors are being developed by NASA as a potential steady source of electrical power for NASA’s future scientific space missions. Currently, NASA Glenn Research Center has two corporations under contract, American Superconductor (AMSC) and Sunpower Inc., for the development of the next generation of free-piston Stirling convertors for dynamic radioisotope power systems. AMSC is developing the Flexure Isotope Stirling Convertor (FISC), which uses flexures to prevent side motion and rubbing of the piston. Similarly, Sunpower Inc, is developing the Sunpower Robust Stirling Convertor (SRSC). The SRSC uses gas bearings to prevent radial contact of the moving piston. As convertor development continues, it is increasingly important to understand and predict the interactions of components in the system, how they respond to one another, and how they perform as a response to changes in operating conditions. A suitable and enlightening way to demonstrate and foresee these interactions is with the use of accurate modeling software. Sage, ANSYS® Maxwell, and ANSYS® Fluent are the current modeling tools used by NASA to analytically determine convertor performance. Sage is a one-dimensional object-oriented commercial software package used for modeling and optimizing Stirling convertors for Dynamic Radioisotope Power Systems (DRPS) and it is one of the most accurate Stirling convertor codes in use by NASA. This code is the successor to GLIMPS (Globally-Implicit Stirling Cycle Simulation) and GLOP (GLIMPS Optimization) software created by Gedeon Associates [1]. Model input parameters are typically material/gas type, component physical dimensions, temperatures, frequency, charge pressure, and number of time/space nodes. Sage is used to model both the FISC’s and SRSC’s Stirling cycle thermodynamics and piston/displacer dynamics. Performance maps were created and analyzed for both power systems to better understand the relationship between the following conditions: cold-end temperature, hot-end temperature, piston/displacer amplitudes, pressure drop, and thermal input power. The synergy between these conditions will help determine parameter sensitivity. ANSYS® Maxwell was used to create a three-dimensional (3-D) axisymmetric model for both FISC and SRSC alternators. The significant physical components included in each model are the magnets, magnet carrier, outer/inner laminations, and the coil. Inputs to the model are piston amplitude, piston frequency, alternator load, coil resistance, tuning capacitance, and specific material properties. The alternator models calculate terminal voltage, current, piston/current phase, voltage/current phase, coil inductance, terminal power and efficiency. The RI2 losses, core (hysteresis and eddy) losses, and magnet/can eddy losses are also a part of the final results. ANSYS® Fluent is used to build 3-D computational fluid dynamic (CFD) models to examine the Stirling cycle thermodynamics for both the FISC and SRSC systems. Three-dimensional Computer Aided Design (CAD) models were used to create the physical components of each convertor. Steady-state simulations were conducted for hardware testing, prediction of environmental losses during testing, and generation of radiation look-up tables. The model inputs to the aforementioned analysis are the material properties and boundary thermal conditions. The steady-state model calculates temperature and heat flow distributions. Transient 3-D calculations were also part of the CFD analysis. In this study a physically reduced version of the FISC is used to obtain a prediction of available engine power. For the gas bearing SRSC, the transient effort is used to obtain a prediction of bearing pad performance and its sensitivity to micro-channel geometric variation. The model inputs to the transient simulations are the piston amplitude, displacer amplitude, frequency, displacer/piston phase angle, dynamic deforming CFD grid, temperature boundary conditions, and user defined files describing motion profile of piston/displacer. The results of the model are temperature distributions, heat distributions, and PV power produced at pre-determined conditions.

Luis A Rodriguez↗