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At least 217 records · Page 12

Landslide Hazard and Exposure Modelling in Data-Poor Regions: The Example of the Rohingya Refugee Camps in Bangladesh

Landslide hazards significantly affect economies and populations around the world, but locations where the greatest proportional losses occur are in data-poor regions where capacity to estimate and prepare for these hazards is most limited. Earth observation (EO) data can fill key knowledge gaps, and can be rapidly used in settings with lower analytical capacity. In this study, we describe a novel series of methods designed to analyze landslide susceptibility, hazard and exposure in the region in and around the Rohingya refugee camps in Bangladesh, where limited data is juxtaposed with a major humanitarian crisis. We demonstrate that a high degree of accuracy is possible even when estimating susceptibility of relatively small landslides. In the context of this example, we also explore how estimates of landslide hazard and exposure are most beneficial to decisions made by humanitarian stakeholders relevant to natural hazards and risk. The unique opportunity to work alongside humanitarian end-users has allowed us to produce focused products that can be tested while in development. In particular, we stress the importance of communicating the difference between a landslide ‘early warning system’ –for which satellite data may be unsuitable at local scales –and a model that provides relative hazard estimates, where EO may be valuable. The toolbox of methods presented here could be used to generate landslide hazard and exposure maps in other data-poor regions around the globe.

R A Emberson↗

Surface Melting Over the Greenland Ice Sheet Derived From Enhanced Resolution Passive Microwave Brightness Temperatures (1979–2019)

Surface melting is a major component of the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance, and it affects sea level rise through direct runoff and the modulation of ice dynamics and hydrological processes, supraglacially, englacially and subglacially. Passive microwave (PMW) brightness temperature observations are of paramount importance in studying the spatial and temporal evolution of surface melting due to their long temporal coverage (1979–present) and high temporal resolution (daily). However, a major limitation of PMW datasets has been the relatively coarse spatial resolution, which has historically been of the order of tens of kilometers. Here, we use a newly released PMW dataset (37 GHz, horizontal polarization) made available through a NASA “Making Earth System Data Records for Use in Research Environments” (MeASUREs) program to study the spatiotemporal evolution of surface melting over the Greenland ice sheet at an enhanced spatial resolution of 3.125 km. We assess the outputs of different detection algorithms using data collected by automatic weather stations (AWSs) and the outputs of the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) regional climate model. We found that sporadic melting is well captured using a dynamic algorithm based on the outputs of the Microwave Emission Model of Layered Snowpack (MEMLS), whereas a fixed threshold of 245 K is capable of detecting persistent melt. Our results indicate that, during the reference period from 1979 to 2019 (from 1988 to 2019), surface melting over the ice sheet increased in terms of both duration, up to 4.5 (2.9) d per decade, and extension, up to 6.9 % (3.6 %) of the entire ice sheet surface extent per decade, according to the MEMLS algorithm. Furthermore, the melting season started up to 4.0 (2.5) d earlier and ended 7.0 (3.9) d later per decade. We also explored the information content of the enhanced-resolution dataset with respect to the one at 25 km and MAR outputs using a semi-variogram approach. We found that the enhanced product is more sensitive to local-scale processes, thereby confirming the potential of this new enhanced product for monitoring surface melting over Greenland at a higher spatial resolution than the historical products and for monitoring its impact on sea level rise. This offers the opportunity to improve our understanding of the processes driving melting, to validate modeled melt extent at high resolution and, potentially, to assimilate these data in climate models.

Surface melting↗

OPTIMIZING MEASUREMENTS OF THE NEAR-SURFACE WATER CYCLE ON MARS: INSIGHTS FOR HABITABILITY.

The Martian regolith may act as a sink and source of water vapor for the lower atmosphere through processes such as frost formation, physisorption, solid-state hydration, and brine formation [e.g., 1- 12]. These processes are all dependent on temperature and humidity, as well as regolith properties such as porosity, tortuosity, and composition. In particular, the salty nature of the Martian regolith may increase its role in atmosphere-regolith interactions as hygroscopic salts interact with the ambient water vapor. Although to date experimental works near Mars-relevant conditions have constrained some of the potential effects of a salty regolith on water vapor exchange processes [e.g., 13-18], vital in situ measurements are lacking to link these to the near-surface water cycle on Mars. This is because previous and ongoing environmental payloads for landed Mars missions were not designed to investigate atmosphere-regolith exchange processes [12, 19-20]. Resolving the Martian near-surface water cycle is relevant to both climatic processes and astrobiology. There is the potential to presently form (meta)stable brines on Mars; their stability would be largely controlled by water vapor exchange processes [9, 21]. Here we argue for optimizing in situ measurements of water vapor exchange processes and regolith properties to advance our understanding of the local scale Martian water cycle and inform habitability studies.

E G Rivera-Valentin↗

Atmospheric Measurements With Kites and Miniaturized Sensors

Recent work on kite-based instrumentation is intended to make routine distributed measurements practical. Several important developments have contributed to increasing confidence in an affordable path towards measurements of local-scale conditions. Of particular interest are vertical distributions of temperature, wind speed, wind direction and humidity, and reliable flight in a wide range of conditions from low/no wind to high wind/high turbulence are also a subject of study. Progress towards creating such systems for community-based environmental observations will be presented.

Geoff Bland↗

The optimization of model ensemble composition and size can enhance the robustness of crop yield projections

Linked climate and crop simulation models are widely used to assess the impact of climate change on agriculture. However, it is unclear how ensemble configurations (model composition and size) influence crop yield projections and uncertainty. Here, we investigate the influences of ensemble configurations on crop yield projections and modeling uncertainty from Global Gridded Crop Models and Global Climate Models under future climate change. We performed a cluster analysis to identify distinct groups of ensemble members based on their projected outcomes, revealing unique patterns in crop yield projections and corresponding uncertainty levels, particularly for wheat and soybean. Furthermore, our findings suggest that approximately six Global Gridded Crop Models and 10 Global Climate Models are sufficient to capture modeling uncertainty, while a cluster-based selection of 3-4 Global Gridded Crop Models effectively represents the full ensemble. The contribution of individual Global Gridded Crop Models to overall uncertainty varies depending on region and crop type, emphasizing the importance of considering the impact of specific models when selecting models for local-scale applications. Our results emphasize the importance of model composition and ensemble size in identifying the primary sources of uncertainty in crop yield projections, offering valuable guidance for optimizing ensemble configurations in climate-crop modeling studies tailored to specific applications.

Agriculture↗

Capitol Reef Ecological Conservation: Mapping Vegetation Functional Groups to Inform Invasive Vegetation Management, Ecological Conservation and Restoration in Capitol Reef National Park

Invasive exotic plant (IEP) species have been found within the park boundaries of Capitol Reef National Park (CARE) in Utah. Currently, remotely sensed datasets such as the Rangeland Analysis Platform (RAP) from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) have been used to investigate IEP species within the park, but validation of the national RAP program is necessary for informing decisions at a local scale. CARE seeks a remote monitoring solution that can precisely target managerial efforts within the park’s challenging terrain and hard-to-reach locations. To fulfill this objective, we harnessed Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) imagery and leveraged Random Forest (RF) modeling to generate classification maps characterizing vegetation functional groups for 2013 and 2022 within the park. Subsequently, the Land Change Modeler (LCM) in Idrisi TerrSet facilitated the production of a predicted classification map for 2033. The team also devised an annual grass probability map to accentuate areas impacted by exotic grasses. A comparative assessment between the RF classification map and the RAP map for 2022 revealed an overall agreement of 47.41%, with disparities primarily arising from differences in bare soil and shrub areas. Significantly, the 2022 RF-generated classification map showcased an impressive overall accuracy of 92.17%. In short, the probability map, the land cover change detection spanning 2013 to 2022, and the forecasting of observed trends into the future aids in the evaluation of invasive plant impacts and facilitation of CARE’s preparedness for potential ecological disturbances. Notably, in comparison to the RAP, the RF classification method generates functional group maps that are more representative of the study area.

Vanchy Li↗

Observed Changes in Hydroclimate Attributed to Human Forcing

Observational and modeling studies indicate significant changes in the global hydroclimate in the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries due to anthropogenic climate change. In this review, we analyze the recent literature on the observed changes in hydroclimate attributable to anthropogenic forcing, the physical and biological mechanisms underlying those changes, and the advantages and limitations of current detection and attribution methods. Changes in the magnitude and spatial patterns of precipitation minus evaporation ( P–E ) are consistent with increased water vapor content driven by higher temperatures. While thermodynamics explains most of the observed changes, the contribution of dynamics is not yet well constrained, especially at regional and local scales, due to limitations in observations and climate models. Anthropogenic climate change has also increased the severity and likelihood of contemporaneous droughts in southwestern North America, southwestern South America, the Mediterranean, and the Caribbean. An increased frequency of extreme precipitation events and shifts in phenology has also been attributed to anthropogenic climate change. While considerable uncertainties persist on the role of plant physiology in modulating hydroclimate and vice versa, emerging evidence indicates that increased canopy water demand and longer growing seasons negate the water-saving effects from increased water-use efficiency.

Drought↗

Mobile Observations of Ozone and Aerosols in Alabama: Southeastern US Summer Pollution and Coastal Variability

We present a detailed analysis of measurements of ozone (O 3 ) and aerosols collected using multiple platforms and instruments during a 5-day mini-campaign in Alabama, for improving our understanding of the chemistry and air quality in the Southeastern United States. Our study features the first on-road O 3 lidar profiling on highways and the coordinated airborne observations that captured O 3 and aerosol structures associated with synoptic weather conditions, stratospheric intrusions, wildfire smoke transport, and enhancements in urban areas. The Doppler wind lidar data suggest that the vertical structures and variability of O 3 and aerosols at Dauphin Island, a coastal site in the Gulf of Mexico, were related to both the synoptic flow and local-scale land-sea breeze circulation. The onshore gulf breeze, which typically started in the afternoon, helped to quickly dilute air pollutants near the surface, resulting in large gradients toward inland areas. In contrast, gradients were much smaller on days without a gulf breeze. O 3 and humidity were highly anti-correlated in the lower free troposphere, but weakly anti-correlated in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) suggesting more complicated emissions and sink of O 3 in the PBL. Our on-road and airborne measurement strategies to quantify the vertical and horizontal chemical gradients will be useful for future geostationary satellite validation.

Shi Kuang↗

Evaluation of Vertical Patterns in Chlorophyll-A Derived From A Data Assimilating Model of Satellite-Based Ocean Color

Satellite-based sensors of ocean color have become the primary tool to infer changes in surface chlorophyll, while BGC-Argo floats are now filling the information gap at depth. Here we use BGC-Argo data to assess depth-resolved information on chlorophyll-a derived from an ocean biogeochemical model constrained by the assimilation of surface ocean color remote sensing. The data-assimilating model replicates well the general seasonality and meridional gradients in surface and depth-resolved chlorophyll-a inferred from the float array in the Southern Ocean. On average, the model tends to overestimate float-based chlorophyll, particularly at times and locations of high productivity such as the beginning of the spring bloom, subtropical deep chlorophyll maxima, and non-iron limited regions of the Southern Ocean. The highest model RMSE in the upper 50 m with respect to the float array is of 0.6 mg Chl m −3 , which should allow the detection of seasonal changes in float-based biomass (varying between 0.01 and >1 mg Chl m −3 ) but might hinder the identification of subtle changes in chlorophyll at narrow local scales. Both model and float profiling data show good agreement with in situ data from station ALOHA, with model estimates showing a slight accuracy edge in inferring depth-resolved observations. Uncertainties in float bio-optical estimates impede their use as a reliable benchmark for validation, but the general qualitative agreement between model and float data provides confidence in the ability of model to replicate biogeochemical features below the surface, where data is not directly constrained by the assimilation of satellite ocean color.

Lionel A Quintero↗

Impact Of Rotation on the Sun’s Subsurface Structure

It is well known that the dynamical evolution of subsurface flows of the Sun and magnetic fields is strongly linked to rotation. Observational investigation of sub surface structuring and dynamics can be performed only with relatively low resolution using helioseismic inversion techniques. To confidently model the coupling of turbulent convection, magnetic fields, and rotation in the solar interior, we perform advanced radiative hydrodynamic and MHD modeling of local scales. To explore the coupling effects in the upper layers of the convection zone, we present results of analysis from a series of hydrodynamic simulations performed for a 25-Mm-deep computational domain at different latitudes obtained for 1) the Carrington rotation rate at all latitudes and 2) the realistic rotation rate from the global helioseismic inversions during the solar minimum. Using additional 3D radiative hydrodynamic models, we reveal how physical properties of the solar convection are affected by rotation.

Heliophysics↗

An algorithm for recognition and localization of rotated and scaled objects

An algorithm for recognition and localization of objects, which is invariant to displacement and rotation, is extended to the recognition and localization of differently scaled, rotated, and displaced objects. The proposed algorithm provides an optimum way to find if a match exists between two objects that are scaled, rotated, and displaced, while the number of computations is of the same order as for equally scaled objects.

Peli, T.↗

Feasibility Studies as Catalysts for Capacity Building: The DEVELOP Experience from Local to National Scale

The NASA DEVELOP National Program occupies a unique niche in the capacity development ecosystem. It is not a traditional training or educational program primarily focused on individual capacity, nor is it a full-scale co-development program focused on institutional capacity. NASA DEVELOP conducts 10-week feasibility studies that bring together teams of participants and decision making partners. The participants are competitively selected students and emerging or transitioning professionals, who build their STEM and professional skillsets. The partners are groups that have decision making requirements that may benefit from insights that Earth observations can provide. The interaction of the participants and partners over the intense 10-week time period is especially well adapted to building capacity at smaller scales. DEVELOP projects have shown good results when working at municipal and smaller administrative levels like U.S. counties. Even when working with higher administrative levels like provinces, U.S states, or even national or federal levels, DEVELOP has shown most success when working with more localized institutions like state forests or national parks. This presentation will recount case studies of how DEVELOP projects worked with more local or “localized” partners and compare with outcomes with partners at other scales: state/provincial and federal/national levels.

NASA DEVELOP↗

Feasibility Studies as Catalysts for Capacity Building: The DEVELOP Experience from Local to National Scale

The NASA DEVELOP National Program occupies a unique niche in the capacity development ecosystem. It is not a traditional training or educational program primarily focused on individual capacity, nor is it a full-scale co-development program focused on institutional capacity. NASA DEVELOP conducts 10-week feasibility studies that bring together teams of participants and decision making partners. The participants are competitively selected students and emerging or transitioning professionals, who build their STEM and professional skillsets. The partners are groups that have decision making requirements that may benefit from insights that Earth observations can provide. The interaction of the participants and partners over the intense 10-week time period is especially well adapted to building capacity at smaller scales. DEVELOP projects have shown good results when working at municipal and smaller administrative levels like U.S. counties. Even when working with higher administrative levels like provinces, U.S states, or even national or federal levels, DEVELOP has shown most success when working with more localized institutions like state forests or national parks. This presentation will recount case studies of how DEVELOP projects worked with more local or “localized” partners and compare with outcomes with partners at other scales: state/provincial and federal/national levels.

Capacity Building↗

X-ray Binary Luminosity Function Scaling Relations for Local Galaxies Based on Subgalactic Modeling

We present new Chandra constraints on the X-ray luminosity functions(XLFs)of X-ray binary(XRB)populations, as well as their scaling relations, for a sample of 38 nearby galaxies(D = 3.4–29 Mpc). Our galaxy sample is drawn primarily from the Spitzer Infrared Nearby Galaxies Survey(SINGS)and contains a wealth of Chandra(5.8 Ms total)and multiwavelength data, allowing for star formation rates(SFRs)and stellar masses(M⁎)to be measured on subgalactic scales. We divided the 2478 X-ray-detected sources into 21 subsamples in bins of specific SFR(sSFR ≡ SFR/M⁎)and constructed XLFs. To model the XLF dependence on sSFR, we fit a global XLF model, containing contributions from high-mass XRBs(HMXBs), low-mass XRBs(LMXBs), and background sources from the cosmic X-ray background that respectively scale with SFR, M⁎, and sky area. We find an HMXB XLF that is more complex in shape than previously reported and an LMXB XLF that likely varies with sSFR, potentially due to an age dependence. When applying our global model to XLF data for each individual galaxy, we discover a few galaxy XLFs that significantly deviate from our model beyond statistical scatter. Most notably, relatively low-metallicity galaxies have an excess of HMXBs above≈10^(38)erg/s, and elliptical galaxies that have relatively rich populations of globular clusters(GCs)show excesses of LMXBs compared to the global model. Additional modeling of how the XRB XLF depends on stellar age, metallicity, and GC specific frequency is required to sufficiently characterize the XLFs of galaxies.

Bret D. Lehmer↗

Wrinkle ridges on Venusian plains: Indicators of shallow crustal stress orientations at local and regional scales

The plains regions of Venus exhibit a complex array of structural features, including deformation belts of various types, wrinkle ridges, grabens, and enigmatic radar-bright linears. Probably the most pervasive of these structures are the wrinkle ridges, which appear to be morphologically identical to their counterparts on the Moon and Mars. Almost all workers agree that wrinkle ridges result from horizontal compressive stresses in the crust; they either are explained as flexural fold structures, or alternatively as scarps or folds related to reverse faults. Wrinkle ridges generally are narrow, have small amplitudes, and commonly are closely spaced as well, characteristics that imply a shallow crustal origin. If wrinkle ridges are due to horizontally directed compressive stresses in the shallow crust, as generally has been inferred, then the trends of these features provide a means to map both local and regional orientations of principal stresses in the uppermost part of the venusian crust: maximum compressive stress is normal to the ridges, minimum compressive stress is normal to the topographic surface, and thus the wrinkle ridge trends trace the orientation of the intermediate principal stress. Because there are few plains areas on Venus totally devoid of wrinkle ridges, it should be possible to establish a number of interesting relationships on a near-global scale by mapping the trends of wrinkle ridges wherever they occur. The present study is addressing three questions: (1) Do the trends of wrinkle ridges define domains that are large relative to the sizes of individual plains regions? If so, can these domains be related to large-scale topographic or geologic features? (2) Are regional trends of wrinkle ridges affected by local features such as coronae? If so, is it possible to determine the relative ages of the far-field and local stresses from detailed study of trend inheritance or superposition relationships? (3) What is the relationship between wrinkle ridges and the larger ridges that make up ridge belts?

Mcgill, George E.↗

Global-, local-, and intermediate-scale structures in prototype spiral galaxies

The relationship between galactic spiral structure and the matter in the underlying disk constitutes one of the central problems in galactic dynamics. In Bertin et al. (1989), disk matter characterized by a low-dispersive speed is shown to be capable of playing a key role in the generation of large-scale spiral structure. In Roberts et al. (1992), this self-gravitating, low-dispersion disk matter is shown to be capable of playing an essential role in the formation of structure on local and intermediate scales. Both in computed cases where large-scale spiral structure is present and in those where it is not, the same dominant physical processes and fundamental dynamical mechanisms are active on local scales. The new perception, in which large-scale and small-scale phenomena operate somewhat independently as evidenced in the computational studies, permits a range of flocculent, multiarmed, and grand design spiral types to be simulated. In particular, grand design galaxies with ragged appearances exhibiting spurs, arm branchings, and interarm bridges in addition to the major spiral arms, similar to those often observed, can be generated.

Roberts, William W., Jr.↗

Local and large scale galactic gamma-ray emission

A study of the gas-to-dust ratio suggests that interstellar reddening may provide an accurate way of assessing column densities in various directions in the Galaxy. A gamma ray intensity of 7.25 x 10 to the -5th E sub B-V photon/sq cm/s/sterad is predicted for regions of the Galaxy where the medium cosmic ray density is equal to that observed close to the sun. It is found that in the longitude range of about 0-180 degrees, the large scale cosmic ray distribution producing the gamma rays follows that of extreme population I stars put in evidence by giant H II regions, and that of molecular hydrogen traced by carbon monoxide emission. The gamma-ray production exhibits a maximum at R roughly equal to 5 kpc, and practically vanishes at R not less than 11 kpc, beyond the location of the outermost H II regions.

Puget, J. L.↗