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DOE OSTI2025

MHD, disruptions and control physics: Chapter 4 of the special issue: on the path to tokamak burning plasma operation

In this chapter, we review the progress in MHD stability, disruptions and control in magnetic fusion research that has occurred over the past (more than) one and a half decades since the publication by Hender et al in 2007 on the same topic as part of the update of ITER Physics Basis. During this period, remarkable progress has been achieved in the understanding of the basic physics and overall control of MHD instabilities through a wide spectrum of dedicated experiments, theory and modeling. The sawtooth activities are probably today one of the best understood of MHD events and very robust control schemes have been developed for reliable operation of tokamaks through core heating. Similarly, significant improvements have been achieved in understanding and control of neoclassical tearing modes, resistive wall modes or locked modes and their control through ECCD or error field control. The field of disruption prediction through application of artificial intelligence, machine learning or deep learning methods, which had already started at the time of the 2007 review, has progressed significantly due to general progress in these fields and application of newer, more sophisticated algorithms. However, although remarkable progress has been achieved in the field of Disruptions, their understanding, prediction, possible avoidance and mitigation still remain probably the most active fields of R&D globally in this field. This is especially because reactor grade machines like ITER and DEMO will be much less tolerant in respect of disruptions and runaway currents, and their occurrences must be either avoided altogether or minimized to an acceptable value without causing any significant hindrance to robust machine operations. This review is intended to present a broad spectrum of the R&D that has occurred in this field in support of ITER, which will also be of immense significance for all future machines, especially reactors like DEMO.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Recent progress in atomic-scale controlled plasma processing

Atomic-scale control in plasma processing is becoming increasingly critical for fabricating of advanced semiconductor devices, particularly as the industry shifts toward three-dimensional (3D) architectures and high-aspect-ratio (HAR) structures. This review presents a comprehensive overview of recent developments in atomic-scale controlled plasma processes, organized along two key directions: the hierarchical structure of plasma–surface interactions and the generational evolution of atomic layer processing (ALP) technologies. We examined the gas phase, where molecular design enables selective generation of ions and radicals; the boundary layer, where transport phenomena govern species delivery into nanoscale features, and the surface, where temperature-dependent reactions and cyclic processing determine etching selectivity and precision. Building on this foundation, we outline five generations of ALP—from thermal atomic layer deposition to transport-aware, temporally and structurally decoupled processes—highlighting the increasing sophistication of process control. The review further explores the transition from empirical recipe development to science-based, data-driven methodologies. By integrating quantum-chemical modeling, advanced diagnostics, and machine learning, we demonstrated how predictive models can link plasma species composition to process outcomes, enabling autonomous and adaptive control strategies. Finally, this review discusses the broader societal implications of plasma process innovation through the E4 quartet: energy and resource efficiency, environmental sustainability, evolutionary advancement, and educational promotion. These principles guide the development of sustainable and intelligent atomic-scale manufacturing technologies that are not only technically advanced but also socially responsible.

Ishikawa, Kenji [Nagoya Univ. (Japan)] (ORCID:0000↗

DOE OSTI2024

Molecular-scale insights into the electrical double layer at oxide-electrolyte interfaces

The electrical double layer (EDL) at metal oxide-electrolyte interfaces critically affects fundamental processes in water splitting, batteries, and corrosion. However, limitations in the microscopic-level understanding of the EDL have been a major bottleneck in controlling these interfacial processes. Herein, we use ab initio-based machine learning potential simulations incorporating long-range electrostatics to unravel the molecular-scale picture of the EDL at the prototypical anatase TiO 2 -electrolyte interface under various pH conditions. Our large-scale simulations, capable of capturing interfacial water dissociation/recombination reactions and electrolytic proton transport, provide unprecedented insights into the detailed structure of the EDL. Moreover, the larger capacitance of the EDL under basic relative to acidic conditions, originating from the higher affinity of the cations for the oxide surface, is found to give rise to distinct charging mechanisms on negative and positive surfaces. Our results are validated by the agreement between the computed EDL capacitance and experimental data.

Chemical physics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Mechanical behaviour of additively manufactured metals

Additive manufacturing is reshaping the production of engineering components in diverse industries, such as the automotive, aerospace, defense, and biomedical sectors, by offering unprecedented design flexibility. The non-equilibrium processing conditions of additive manufacturing generate materials with unique microstructures and tailored mechanical properties that are often unattainable through conventional routes. This review focuses on recent advances in additively manufactured metals that demonstrate distinctive mechanical behaviors, including strength-ductility synergy, microstresses and gradient plasticity, fracture and fatigue resistance, and high-temperature creep performance. Here, we examine the mechanisms and micromechanical effects arising from the heterogeneous microstructures fabricated by additive manufacturing, to guide the design of a wide range of high-performance structural materials. Furthermore, we discuss critical research needs and emerging opportunities in process control, alloy design, advanced characterization, high-fidelity computational modeling, and machine learning aimed at achieving exceptional mechanical properties in additively manufactured metals.

Additive Manufacturing↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing collimator positions using bayesian optimization in the Fermilab MI-8 transfer line

Collimators are used to minimize losses and to remove particles that would otherwise get lost downstream and irradiate the machine. Finding the optimal jaw positions is time consuming and with the upstream beam properties changing, the collimation settings would need to be readjusted each time. Therefore, a method to optimize collimator positions and to operate them at full capacity in a short time is required for loss control downstream. A study of collimator positions was conducted and a machine learning (ML) model was developed to predict optimal collimator positions. Bayesian Optimization (BO) was used to calculate new jaw positions from the ML model. The results of BO and usage of ML for better performance of the collimation system are presented in this paper.

Babacan, Betiay [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Diagnostics, Prognostics, and Optimization for Lithium-Ion Battery Systems

Health management of lithium-ion battery systems presents a host of challenges due to their complex physics, large numbers of components, and a wide variety of degradation behaviors across different battery types. Dr. Paul Gasper will present on research from the Electrochemical Energy Storage Group on Lithium-ion battery diagnostics, prognostics, and optimization. Diagnostics research, including state-estimation via machine-learning from electrochemical impedance spectroscopy and DC pulses as well as continuous state-estimation via Kalman filters, will highlight the ongoing challenges for accurately measuring the state of batteries without performing time-consuming characterization tests. NLR's industry-recognized battery prognostics work, which predicts real-world battery degradation by identifying degradation rate models from accelerated aging data using statistical modeling and machine-learning, will be used to demonstrate the critical impact of battery controls, thermal management, and operating strategy on durability and lifetime. Finally, the use of prognostic models for financial or lifetime optimization will be discussed.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Virtual Growth of SRF Materials

Niobium's native surface oxide affects SRF cavity and superconducting qubit performance, motivating interest in controlling its crystalline structure. We combine a literature-derived machine-learning analysis with temperature-dependent XRD to study crystalline ordering in Nb2O5. Random Forest models, trained on 74 processing conditions from 17 papers and validated by leave-one-group-out cross-validation, predicted broad crystallinity outcomes well (balanced accuracy 0.809), but struggled with specific polymorph identity (0.577). Annealing temperature was the dominant predictor across all targets; oxygen partial pressure showed negligible importance, reflecting narrow literature coverage rather than physical irrelevance. Temperature-dependent XRD on anodized and H2O2-treated Niobium showed structural evolution consistent with the machine learning predictions. Our model and overall approach provide a data-driven framework for identifying and optimizing conditions that promote crystallization in initially amorphous oxides. This framework can guide the selection of growth and post-annealing conditions for Nb surfaces by narrowing the experimental parameter space, thereby reducing trial-and-error efforts in developing oxide structures relevant to SRF applications.

Tilkin, Anthony [Fermilab]↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Where IMERG Goes Next: Version 08 and Beyond

With the Version 07 (V07) Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) algorithm finalized and production initiated, the focus turns to enhancements for Version 08. These include innovations not included in V07 due to time constraints, plus issues revealed by the initial V07 products. One high priority is to evaluate and revise the schemes in V07 that rectify temporal artifacts caused by the time interpolation that fills the gaps between the various passive microwave (PMW) sensor overpasses. A second priority is to improve the homogeneity between the TRMM and GPM eras by characterizing differences between the two eras, determining the causes of these differences, and applying corrections as feasible, perhaps by enforcing spatial scale consistency (an overarching issue). Certainly, we must account for GPROF and the Combined Radar-Radiometer Algorithm converting to Machine Learning schemes in V08. Other priority topics include additional automated quality control for artifacts in the IR brightness temperatures and PMW precipitation fields, revisions to the specification algorithm for the probability of liquid precipitation, and accommodating new PMW sensors, which include the next generation of small-sats. We also consider the post-V08 landscape; the final GPM reprocessing will be restricted to fixing known code or algorithmic errors. Nonetheless, there are several data sources on the horizon to consider, including more small-sat PMW radiometers, AVHRR-based precipitation estimates (most useful in high latitudes), and the ISCCP-Next Generation and GEO-Ring projects that could provide easy access to multiple geosynchronous satellite channels and enable significantly improved algorithms compared to GEO-IR alone.

George J. Huffman↗

NASA NTRS2014

MARGInS: Model-Based Analysis of Realizable Goals in Systems

Under NASAs Constellation effort, the Exploration Technology Development Program funded research toward a system validation capability that applied machine learning and test-case generation techniques to the analysis of black-box system behavior. The behavior analysis capability scaled to spaces of hundreds of input parameters and tens of thousands of test cases. Aerospace systems at the vehicle level, especially those systems which contain some level of autonomy, are best described by hybrid and non-linear mathematics. Even simplified models of such systems need parameter dimensionalities in the hundreds or thousands of parameters in order to capture sufficient fidelity. The System Safety Assessments (such as those described in the SAE ARP 4761A Safety Assessment Process guidelines) for these systems are prone to errorinteractions between the vehicles subsystems are complex, and can display emergent behaviors. NASA captured this new analysis in the Model-based Analysis of Realizable Goals in Systems (MARGInS) tool and applied it to the Pad Abort 1 (PA-1) simulation as part of the independent validation and verification cycle before the PA-1 flight test in May of 2010. MARGInS evaluated the adherence of the high-fidelity simulation to its requirements, and deter- mined the margins to failure from the expected nominal input conditions. Following the PA-1 test, the capabilities within the MARGInS framework have been extended with sophisticated statistical and white-box test case generation techniques and applied to other NASA missions. The frame- work now includes a critical factors analysis that was applied to NASAs Orion simulation and design. NASAs Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) leveraged the existing MARGInS framework for work on aviation safety for civil transport vehicles and for research on autonomy issues. The NASA ARMD effort created a time series output prediction capability that has been used to characterize trajectories for a plane with an adaptive control system, and a safety boundary detection capability that has been applied to an air traffic control concept of operation for the Federal Aviation Administration. The statistical and machine- learning based techniques within MARGInS have been successfully combined with concolic execution to improve the coverage of a critical unit by driving system-level inputs. The use case driving the concolic execution and MARGInS integration was inspired by the Air France 447 disaster in which the loss of a critical functionality (the airspeed calculation from the pitot tubes) led to loss of the entire plane with the people aboard. To illustrate capabilities and limitations, we will highlight the analyses for the applications listed above. We will then discuss the future plans for MARGInS and its interfaces with other tools.

Validation↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning-enhanced MPC for demand flexibility in small commercial buildings: An experimental study

Small- and medium-sized commercial buildings (SMCBs) represent the majority of U.S. commercial building stock and a significant share of peak electricity demand, yet they often lack centralized building automation systems, representing a significant untapped resource for urban energy management. This infrastructure gap makes advanced control implementation challenging, limiting the potential for widespread demand flexibility. Model Predictive Control (MPC) has shown strong potential for load shifting, peak demand reduction, and cost savings, but its effectiveness is hindered by unmeasured disturbances such as internal heat gains. This paper presents a Hybrid MPC framework that integrates a physics-based gray-box building thermal model, identified using a lumped disturbance (LD) approach, with a machine learning (ML) model for forecasting unmeasured disturbances. The hybrid approach is designed for buildings with multiple individually controlled heat pump and thermostat pairs, common in SMCBs, and aims to optimize coordinated scheduling of multiple heat pumps under dynamic electricity pricing while respecting comfort constraints. The methodology is validated through both simulations of case study buildings and experimental studies at a highly-instrumented test facility. Simulation results show that the Hybrid MPC achieves substantial load shifting and peak demand reduction, approaching the performance of an ideal MPC with perfect disturbance knowledge, and outperforming a conventional MPC without disturbance forecasting. In experiments, the Hybrid MPC reduced daily HVAC energy costs by 8.7%, peak-price time load (load shifting) by 41.7%, and peak demand by 29.2% compared to baseline control, demonstrating comparable benefits to the 11.6% cost savings, 42.9% load shifting, and 23.2% peak reduction of the ideal MPC. These results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid modeling approach can significantly improve MPC performance in real-world SMCB applications without requiring additional disturbance measurements.

Demand Flexibility↗

NASA NTRS2023

BRAINSTACK – A Platform for Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning Collaborative Experiments on a Nano-Satellite

As the space economy continues to expand through increasingly easy access to advanced and inexpensive technology, space missions themselves have become more ambitious with exploration targets growing ever distant while simultaneously requiring larger guidance and communication budgets. These conflicting desires of distance and control drive the need for advanced on-board intelligent decision making to reduce communication and control limitations by automating as many mission functions as possible in-situ. While the amount of research on such Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML) software modules has grown exponentially, the capacity to experimentally validate such software modules in space in a rapid and inexpensive format has not. To this end, the Nano Orbital Workshop (NOW) group at NASA Ames Research Center has been at the forefront of performing initial flight evaluation tests of ‘commercially’ available bleeding-edge computational platforms via what is programmatically referred to as the BrainStack on the TechEdSat (TES-n) flight series. This on-orbit computational platform provides an evaluation laboratory where advanced software experiments are pre-loaded into memory prior to launch, then executed as payloads during mission operations with results reported back and program tweaks or new training sets uploaded as needed. Processors selected as part of the BrainStack are of ideal size, packaging, and power consumption for easy integration into a cube satellite structure. These experiments have included the evaluation of small, high-performance GPUs and, more recently, neuromorphic processors, in LEO operations. Neuromorphic processors are of particular interest due to their superior power efficiency over GPUs in intelligent automation applications. The first TES-n flight test of an Intel first-generation Loihi neuromorphic processor launched on TES-13, January 13, 2022, and continues to operate in orbit despite no significant modifications to harden the processor against the space environment. The Intel Loihi Gen-1 on TES-13 is characterized by a 14nm 128-core Spiking Neural Network (SNN) able to support on-chip training. The processor is packaged in the Kapoho Bay USB module, providing a relatively straight-forward interface to the bus avionics system. The Kapoho Bay was in turn managed by an Intel Pentium single-board computer to handle scheduling of the software application payloads and communications with the satellite’s primary computer. The recently released Intel Loihi Gen-2, able to support integer-valued spike payloads and produced using 7nm process, will form part of the continually evolving BrainStack in the upcoming three TES-n/NOW flights. The Kapoho Point unit will incorporate eight Loihi-2 processors, enabling neural networks of up to one million neurons and one billion synapsis. Additionally, it is planned to measure the radiation environment these processors experience to understand any degradation or computational artifacts caused by long term space radiation exposure on these novel architectures. This evolving flexible and collaborative environment involving various research teams across NASA and other organizations is intended to be a convenient orbital test platform from which many anticipated future space automation applications may be initially tested.

Artificial Intelligence↗

DOE OSTI2025

Active oversight and quality control in standard Bayesian optimization for autonomous experiments

The fusion of experimental automation and machine learning has catalyzed a new era in materials research, prominently featuring Gaussian Process (GP) Bayesian Optimization (BO) driven autonomous experiments. Here we introduce a Dual-GP approach that enhances traditional GPBO by adding a secondary surrogate model to dynamically constrain the experimental space based on real-time assessments of the raw experimental data. This Dual-GP approach enhances the optimization efficiency of traditional GPBO by isolating more promising space for BO sampling and more valuable experimental data for primary GP training. We also incorporate a flexible, human-in-the-loop intervention method in the Dual-GP workflow to adjust for unanticipated results. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the Dual-GP model with synthetic model data and implement this approach in autonomous pulsed laser deposition experimental data. This Dual-GP approach has broad applicability in diverse GPBO-driven experimental settings, providing a more adaptable and precise framework for refining autonomous experimentation for more efficient optimization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Tuning water dissociation at oxide–electrolyte interfaces with electric fields

Understanding how electric fields influence water dissociation at heterogeneous interfaces is crucial for controlling interfacial chemical reactions and advancing next-generation energy technologies. Herein, ab initio–based machine learning simulations show that even small electric field changes can significantly alter the water dissociation fraction at planar TiO 2 –electrolyte interfaces. The resulting free energy difference between undissociated and dissociated interfacial water exhibits a linear dependence on the field change with a slope of 1.97 eÅ, which far exceeds the dissociation-induced dipole change of a water molecule. Employing a machine-learned collective variable to investigate the reaction statistics of thousands of water dissociation/recombination events, we find that small electric field changes exert minor effects on individual reaction energy barriers but significantly influence the populations of local configurations associated with initial states that are most favorable for reactions. These findings elucidate the pronounced impact of electric fields on interfacial water dissociation and reveal a mechanism for electric-field-controlled chemical reactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Nanoscale wetting controls reactive Pd ensembles in synthesis of dilute PdAu alloy catalysts

The performance of bimetallic dilute alloy catalysts is largely determined by the size of minority metal ensembles on the nanoparticle surface. By analyzing the synthesis of catalysts comprising Pd 8 Au 92 nanoparticles supported on silica using surface-sensitive techniques, we report that whether Pd overgrowth occurs before or after Au nanoparticle deposition onto the support controls the surface Pd ensemble size and abundance. These differences in Pd ensembles influence catalytic reactivity in H 2 –D 2 isotope exchange and benzaldehyde hydrogenation, which, in correlation with theoretical calculations, is used to elucidate the active site(s) in each reaction. To clarify how the synthetic sequence controls the formation of Pd ensembles, we combine numerical wetting calculations and molecular dynamics simulations (with a machine-learned force field) to visualize Pd deposition and migration on the nanoparticle surface, respectively. Our results suggest that the nanoparticle–support interface restricts nanoparticle accessibility to Pd deposition, which consequently controls the Pd ensemble size, illustrating the critical role of nanoscale wetting phenomena during bimetallic catalyst preparation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Integration of scanning probe microscope with high-performance computing: Fixed-policy and reward-driven workflows implementation

The rapid development of computation power and machine learning algorithms has paved the way for automating scientific discovery with a scanning probe microscope (SPM). The key elements toward operationalization of the automated SPM are the interface to enable SPM control from Python codes, availability of high computing power, and development of workflows for scientific discovery. Here, we build a Python interface library that enables controlling an SPM from either a local computer or a remote high-performance computer, which satisfies the high computation power need of machine learning algorithms in autonomous workflows. We further introduce a general platform to abstract the operations of SPM in scientific discovery into fixed-policy or reward-driven workflows. Furthermore, our work provides a full infrastructure to build automated SPM workflows for both routine operations and autonomous scientific discovery with machine learning.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

NASA NTRS2025

Improving Adhesive Bondline Time of Flight Predictions During Autoclave Cure Utilizing Machine Learning

Composite materials are increasingly being used in aerospace applications due to their superior strength-to-weight ratio compared to commonly used metals. A current limitation to widespread adoption is the certification of adhesively bonded joints. One approach to improving adhesive bonding in composites is accurately measuring the thickness of adhesive bondlines in composite laminates. Precise bondline thickness control is essential for aerospace applications where adhesive layer thickness directly affects joint fracture properties and structural performance. This study focused on implementing machine learning techniques to determine the ultrasonic time of flight (directly correlated to thickness) in adhesive bondlines throughout autoclave cure cycles. A high-temperature (use up to 180°C) ultrasonic scanning system was deployed in an autoclave to provide time of flight data through composite panels. Three experiments were conducted on the curing of 305 mm × 305 mm unidirectional composite panels. In the first experiment, a piecewise function was fit for the temperature correction factor to account for changing autoclave temperatures. Due to deficiencies in the first calibration experiment, a second experiment was run, and the results were used to train a machine learning model. The revised experiment, in combination with the machine learning model, significantly increased the accuracy of the bondline time of flight predictions (~14% error reduced to <1%). Data was processed using the Regression Learner Application in MATLAB®, with a Support Vector Machine selected for the model. The result was a machine learning algorithm capable of reliably quantifying ultrasonic time of flight through adhesive bondlines. The third experiment provided independent test data for the machine learning model, demonstrating that the model produces accurate predictions from data beyond its training set.

Machine Learning↗

NASA NTRS2013

Modeling Weather Impact on Airport Arrival Miles-in-Trail Restrictions

When the demand for either a region of airspace or an airport approaches or exceeds the available capacity, miles-in-trail (MIT) restrictions are the most frequently issued traffic management initiatives (TMIs) that are used to mitigate these imbalances. Miles-intrail operations require aircraft in a traffic stream to meet a specific inter-aircraft separation in exchange for maintaining a safe and orderly flow within the stream. This stream of aircraft can be departing an airport, over a common fix, through a sector, on a specific route or arriving at an airport. This study begins by providing a high-level overview of the distribution and causes of arrival MIT restrictions for the top ten airports in the United States. This is followed by an in-depth analysis of the frequency, duration and cause of MIT restrictions impacting the Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL) from 2009 through 2011. Then, machine-learning methods for predicting (1) situations in which MIT restrictions for ATL arrivals are implemented under low demand scenarios, and (2) days in which a large number of MIT restrictions are required to properly manage and control ATL arrivals are presented. More specifically, these predictions were accomplished by using an ensemble of decision trees with Bootstrap aggregation (BDT) and supervised machine learning was used to train the BDT binary classification models. The models were subsequently validated using data cross validation methods. When predicting the occurrence of arrival MIT restrictions under low demand situations, the model was able to achieve over all accuracy rates ranging from 84% to 90%, with false alarm ratios ranging from 10% to 15%. In the second set of studies designed to predict days on which a high number of MIT restrictions were required, overall accuracy rates of 80% were achieved with false alarm ratios of 20%. Overall, the predictions proposed by the model give better MIT usage information than what has been currently provided under current day operations. Traffic flow managers can use these predictions to identify potential MIT restrictions to eliminate (e.g., those occurring during low arrival demand periods), and to determine the days in which a significant number of restrictions may be required

Operation↗

NASA NTRS2020

Machine Learning for Dynamical Modeling of a Flexible Inverted Pendulum System

The inverted pendulum system, a canonical example of an unstable mechanical system, is often used to model the control problems encountered in the flight of rockets in the initial stages of launch, when the airspeed is too small for aerodynamic stability. A system with a flexible pendulum is a variant that more accurately simulates rocket flight nonlinearities (particularly, the flex modes of the rocket). To increase NASA capability of modeling dynamical systems for which closed form solutions are not clear or easily developed, this project aims to provide a machine learning approach that produces a learned dynamical model of the PENNY robot (a rover with a flexible inverted pendulum) from operational data. The developed approach can then be generalized to other complex dynamical systems, including but not limited to rockets and other robotic systems.

M. A. DuPuis↗