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DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty-Guided Prediction Horizon of Phase-Resolved Ocean Wave Forecasting Under Data Sparsity: Experimental and Numerical Evaluation

Accurate short-term wave forecasting is critical for the safe and efficient operation of marine structures that rely on real-time, phase-resolved ocean wave information for control and monitoring purposes (e.g., digital twins). These systems often depend on environmental sensors (e.g., waverider buoys, wave-sensing LIDAR). Challenges arise when upstream sensor data are missing, sparse, or phase-shifted due to drift. This study investigates the performance of two machine learning models, time-series dense encoder (TiDE) and long short-term memory (LSTM), for forecasting phase-resolved ocean surface elevations under varying degrees of data degradation. We introduce the τ-trimming algorithm, which adapts the prediction horizon based on uncertainty thresholds derived from historical forecasts. Numerical wave tank (NWT) and wave basin experiments are used to benchmark model performance under short- and long-term data masking, spatially coarse sensor grids, and upstream phase shifts. Results show under a 50% probability of upstream data loss, the τ-trimmed TiDE model achieves a 46% reduction in error at the most upstream target, compared to 22% for LSTM. Furthermore, phase misalignment in upstream data introduces a near-linear increase in forecast error. Under moderate model settings, a ±3 s misalignment increases the mean absolute error by approximately 0.5 m, while the same error is accumulated at ±4 s using the more conservative approach. These findings inform the design of resilient, uncertainty-aware wave forecasting systems suited for realistic offshore sensing environments.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Advancements and opportunities to improve bottom–up estimates of global wetland methane emissions

Wetlands are the single largest natural source of atmospheric methane (CH 4 ), contributing approximately 30% of total surface CH 4 emissions, and they have been identified as the largest source of uncertainty in the global CH 4 budget based on the most recent Global Carbon Project CH 4 report. High uncertainties in the bottom–up estimates of wetland CH 4 emissions pose significant challenges for accurately understanding their spatiotemporal variations, and for the scientific community to monitor wetland CH 4 emissions from space. In fact, there are large disagreements between bottom–up estimates versus top–down estimates inferred from inversion of atmospheric CH 4 concentrations. To address these critical gaps, we review recent development, validation, and applications of bottom–up estimates of global wetland CH 4 emissions, as well as how they are used in top–down inversions. These bottom–up estimates, using (1) empirical biogeochemical modeling (e.g. WetCHARTs: 125–208 TgCH 4 yr -1 ); (2) process-based biogeochemical modeling (e.g. WETCHIMP: 190 ± 39 TgCH 4 yr -1 ); and (3) data-driven machine learning approach (e.g. UpCH4: 146 ± 43 TgCH 4 yr -1 ). Bottom–up estimates are subject to significant uncertainties (~80 Tg CH 4 yr -1 ), and the ranges of different estimates do not overlap, further amplifying the overall uncertainty when combining multiple data products. These substantial uncertainties highlight gaps in our understanding of wetland CH 4 biogeochemistry and wetland inundation dynamics. Major tropical and arctic wetland complexes are regional hotspots of CH 4 emissions. However, the scarcity of satellite data over the tropics and northern high latitudes offer limited information for top–down inversions to improve bottom–up estimates. Recent advances in surface measurements of CH 4 fluxes (e.g. FLUXNET-CH 4 ) across a wide range of ecosystems including bogs, fens, marshes, and forest swamps provide an unprecedented opportunity to improve existing bottom–up estimates of wetland CH 4 estimates. We suggest that continuous long-term surface measurements at representative wetlands, high fidelity wetland mapping, combined with an appropriate modeling framework, will be needed to significantly improve global estimates of wetland CH 4 emissions. There is also a pressing unmet need for fine-resolution and high-precision satellite CH 4 observations directed at wetlands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

High-resolution leaf area index maps generated from unoccupied aerial system, Teller Mile 27, Seward Peninsula, Alaska

Leaf area index (LAI), a measure of the amount of one-side leaf area per ground unit, is an important indicator of plant carbon, energy, and water cycle. In the heterogeneous Arctic landscapes, it has been challenging to accurately measure LAI across species and space needed for Earth system model validation. Here, we use multispectral unoccupied aerial systems (UASs) to scale up and map leaf area index (LAI) , in a low-Arctic tundra landscape on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. We linked previous published LAI measurements with high-resolution, UAS-collected multispectral data collected over the region of Next Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic)’s Teller Mile Maker 27 site in 2022 to develop random forest (RF) machine learning models to predict and map LAI. 100 RF models were developed to account for uncertainties in ground LAI plot measurements and process scaling. This dataset includes a raster (*.tif) map of the mean LAI value of the 100 RF models, a raster (*.tif) map of the standard deviation of the RF-modeled LAI data, and a user guide (*.pdf).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2005

Automated Planning and Scheduling for Space Mission Operations

Research Trends: a) Finite-capacity scheduling under more complex constraints and increased problem dimensionality (subcontracting, overtime, lot splitting, inventory, etc.) b) Integrated planning and scheduling. c) Mixed-initiative frameworks. d) Management of uncertainty (proactive and reactive). e) Autonomous agent architectures and distributed production management. e) Integration of machine learning capabilities. f) Wider scope of applications: 1) analysis of supplier/buyer protocols & tradeoffs; 2) integration of strategic & tactical decision-making; and 3) enterprise integration.

scheduling↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Novel Hourly-Resolved Global Cloud Property Composite from Operational Satellites Imagers

Numerous applications in satellite remote sensing of surface properties, atmospheric state, composition, and radiation require accurate knowledge of the location and characteristics of clouds. Operational satellite imager radiances are valuable for cloud detection and for deriving many different physical parameters that can be used for a variety of weather, aviation, and energy applications. The NASA Satellite ClOud and Radiation Property retrieval System (SatCORPS) applies a suite of algorithms to meteorological satellite data to provide cloud properties, radiative fluxes and other parameters on a global scale. This paper describes a new global high-resolution dataset of cloud properties made available for community use that is constructed from analyses of a constellation of meteorological satellite imagers. Data taken from Meteosat-8/9 and -11, Himawari-8/9, GOES-16, and -17/-18, Aqua, Terra, Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20 are processed and composited on a 3-km grid to provide hourly global coverage. A historical multi-year dataset is available to serve various needs including modeling challenges related to cloud evaluations and parameterizations. Near real-time data products are also currently available between 60N and 60S. Efforts are underway to operationalize polar orbiting satellite cloud detection methods for low-latency applications over polar regions. The cloud detection and retrieval algorithms have been developed over many years to support NASA weather and climate programs such as the Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES). To improve the utility of the data products, machine learning and other innovative methods are applied in various ways to help minimize data product uncertainties under the most challenging conditions and to improve their consistency at all times of day. A brief description of the methods highlighting the unique aspects of the SatCORPS data products will be presented along with information on their status and availability.

SatCORPS↗

NASA NTRS2022

Machine-Learning Reveals Climate Forcing From Aerosols is Dominated by Increased Cloud Cover

Aerosol-cloud interactions have a potentially large impact on climate, but are poorly quantified and thus contribute a significant and long-standing uncertainty in climate projections. The impacts derived from climate models are poorly constrained by observations, because retrieving robust large-scale signals of aerosol-cloud interactions are frequently hampered by the considerable noise associated with meteorological co-variability. The Iceland-Holuhraun effusive eruption in 2014 resulted in a massive aerosol plume in an otherwise near-pristine environment and thus provided an ideal natural experiment to quantify cloud responses to aerosol perturbations. Here we disentangle significant signals from the noise of meteorological co-variability using a satellite-based machine-learning approach. Our analysis shows that aerosols from the eruption increased cloud cover by approximately 10%, and this appears to be the leading cause of climate forcing, rather than cloud brightening as previously thought. We find that volcanic aerosols do brighten clouds by reducing droplet size, but this has a significantly smaller radiative impact than changes in cloud fraction. These results add substantial observational constraints on the cooling impact of aerosols. Such constraints are critical for improving climate models, which still inadequately represent the complex macro-physical and micro-physical impacts of aerosol-cloud interactions.

Aerosols↗

DOE OSTI2025

Parameter uncertainties for imperfect surrogate models in the low-noise regime

Abstract Bayesian regression determines model parameters by minimizing the expected loss, an upper bound to the true generalization error. However, this loss ignores model form error, or misspecification, meaning parameter uncertainties are significantly underestimated and vanish in the large data limit. As misspecification is the main source of uncertainty for surrogate models of low-noise calculations, such as those arising in atomistic simulation, predictive uncertainties are systematically underestimated. We analyze the true generalization error of misspecified, near-deterministic surrogate models, a regime of broad relevance in science and engineering. We show that posterior parameter distributions must cover every training point to avoid a divergence in the generalization error and design a compatible ansatz which incurs minimal overhead for linear models. The approach is demonstrated on model problems before application to thousand-dimensional datasets in atomistic machine learning. Our efficient misspecification-aware scheme gives accurate prediction and bounding of test errors in terms of parameter uncertainties, allowing this important source of uncertainty to be incorporated in multi-scale computational workflows.

Swinburne, Thomas D. (ORCID:0000000232554257)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bridging the time scale in exascale computing of chemical systems (Final Technical Report)

This report summarizes the work carried out with support of the United States Department of Energy under Award DE-SC0019441. The theme of this project was to develop and apply methods that allowed for the acceleration of atomistic calculations, particularly in challenging areas such as multiphase systems, electrified interfaces, uncertainty estimation, and applications requiring chemical accuracy, which tend to be applications where simulation time is severely bottlenecked by the computational time requirements. Much of the focus was on the application of emerging machine-learning methodologies, although a wide range of methodologies were employed. This report has two major sections. The first focuses on the methodological advances themselves. Within this part, we report a number of major advances, a few examples of which are described here. We report the first machine-learning scheme for the acceleration of electronically grand-canonical calculations (that is, those applicable to electrochemistry). We report new methods of performing transfer learning, in which physics-based priors can be used to provide predictions, often with uncertainty estimates, of images well outside of training sets; we also offer ways to fine-tune these transfer-learning models. We provide a new systematic means to generate and apply minimal training data sets to very large (10,000’s of atoms) systems, with only small training sets appropriate for electronic structure. We developed new methodologies to integrate surface vibrations into surface adsorption calculations. We made advances to the applicability of diffusion Monte Carlo methods to allow (learned) force prediction, finite-size error correction, and force-free means of searching for transition states. We integrated machine-learned atomistic predictions into mechanism generation codes. Additionally, we released new software including AmpTorch, a modernized version of our original atomistic machine-learning code Amp. The second part of this report focuses on the scientific applications that accompanied, and were often enabled by, the methodological advances described earlier. A few examples follow, but full details are in the individual chapters of the report. For example, we developed a general theory of phonon-induced friction on molecular adsorbates. We showed fundamentally how solvent influences the adsorption and desorption process and how it differs from the processes typically involved at the solid–gas interface, making aqueous-phase and electrocatalysis different from traditional thermocatalysis. We examined how metal–insulator and magnetic transitions can be probed, and accelerated exciton dynamics via Frenkel Hamiltonian parameters. We showed that the nearsighted force-training approach, developed within this project, can predict both the stability and reactivity of large nanoparticles, and can also lead to insights on catalyst coverage on binding energies and entropies. These applied studies, which generally integrated with our method development, allowed us to push forward the theoretical understanding of several reaction classes.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Electronic structure prediction of multi-million atom systems through uncertainty quantification enabled transfer learning

The ground state electron density — obtainable using Kohn-Sham Density Functional Theory (KS-DFT) simulations — contains a wealth of material information, making its prediction via machine learning (ML) models attractive. However, the computational expense of KS-DFT scales cubically with system size which tends to stymie training data generation, making it difficult to develop quantifiably accurate ML models that are applicable across many scales and system configurations. Here, we address this fundamental challenge by employing transfer learning to leverage the multi-scale nature of the training data, while comprehensively sampling system configurations using thermalization. Our ML models are less reliant on heuristics, and being based on Bayesian neural networks, enable uncertainty quantification. We show that our models incur significantly lower data generation costs while allowing confident — and when verifiable, accurate — predictions for a wide variety of bulk systems well beyond training, including systems with defects, different alloy compositions, and at multi-million-atom scales. Moreover, such predictions can be carried out using only modest computational resources.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Combining Data with Physical Knowledge for Uncertainty Quantification in Certification and Reliability Analysis

Unifying empirical data with predictive models can enable engineering cost-savings through certification by analysis and reliability-based design. Both concepts require rigorous uncertainty quantification (UQ) and robust understanding and treatment of relevant physics. Combining sampling-based UQ algorithms with high-fidelity simulations creates a computational bottleneck that is often alleviated through the use of machine learning (ML). ML can be used to create computationally efficient surrogates for simulations of complex or high-dimensional physical interactions (e.g., multi-phase interactions associated with melt pools in laser powder bed fusion or spatially-dependent material properties in functionally graded materials). However, negative side effects of ML may include a lack of interpretability and negative correlation between event rarity and simulation accuracy due to a lack of training data. As such, it is important to infuse ML algorithms with physics-based guardrails to provide confidence in their predictions. This talk will provide a brief review of recent NASA research at this intersection of physics-based simulation, ML, and UQ with a focus on certification and reliability analysis.

uncertainty quantification↗

DOE OSTI2021

AI-Batt (Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models) [SWR 21-36]

Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models (AI-Batt) AI-Batt is a MATLAB code base for developing lifetime models for batteries from accelerated aging data. The code base provides many functions for processing, visualizing, and modeling battery aging data, making the data processing, exploration, and modeling workflow substantially faster. These tools are tailored for working with battery aging data sets, which usually consist of many separate time-series for each cell, with many test conditions and possible replicates at each condition, which makes it difficult to simply process or visualize the data set. Complex modeling tasks, such as cross-validation, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification have been implemented to enable thorough statistical investigation of model predictions. Additionally, several machine-learning algorithms are implemented to autonomously identify suitable models via symbolic regression. Data processing functions automatically cast data from the struct data type, which is commonly used to store experimental data, but is not an acceptable input for most algorithms, to the table data type, which can be easily used as input to any optimization algorithm. Also, the data can be separated into time-invariant and time-variant data tables, which is helpful for exploring the data set as well as developing separate models for time-variant and time-invariant aging mechanisms. For example, in aging tests with constant temperature, temperature is a time-invariant experimental condition. Visualization tools enable plotting of data, model fits, and model simulations possible with single-line function calls, empowering data exploration of complex data sets with both time-varying and time-invariant trends. Plots can be automatically generated for the whole data set, or separated by data group (groups of test replicates) or individual data series. Data points or data series can be automatically colored by the value of a variable with a variety of color maps, and model predictions can also be colored by the value of a fit statistic. Comparisons between data sets and the predictions/simulations of different models on the same data set can be easily plotted as well. Distributions of parameter values from bootstrap resampling can be plotted to visualize the reliability of parameter estimation, or determine any correlations between parameters. Modeling tools handle the complex task of creating and parsing symbolic equations for modeling battery lifetime. Equations are parsed to grab relevant data variables, parameter values, or specified sub-models for input into optimization, evaluation, or simulation functions. Models can be optimized locally (one set of parameters for each data series), bi-level (some parameters shared across the data set), or globally (single set of parameters for all data). Functions implementing symbolic regression algorithms help users to discover effective model equations, even in poorly sampled, high-dimensional data.

Smith, Kandler [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NR↗

DOE OSTI2025

Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis - Simulated Wave

The U.S. Department of Energy and the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) demonstrate hydrogen electrolysis, hydrogen compression and storage, and variable hydrogen fuel cell power production using megawatt-scale equipment at NLR’s Flatirons Campus as part of the Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) initiative. This dataset represents part of that effort and is intended for academic, national laboratory, industrial, and other stakeholders to plan, design, and validate models of megawatt-scale hydrogen technologies and diverse energy infrastructure nationwide. These data provide a baseline for how existing hydrogen electrolysis technologies perform when coupled with various energy technologies. Future datasets will demonstrate how existing hydrogen fuel cell technologies can provide controllable, dispatchable, and variable power output for artificial intelligence (AI) data centers and other variable loads. This dataset entry describes hydrogen production using a single, simulated wave energy conversion device. The electrolyzer is a 1.25-MW proton exchange membrane type MC250 system manufactured by Nel Hydrogen. While the unit supports up to 2.5 MW of electrolysis, NLR only has a single 1.25-MW electrolysis stack. For the wave energy, NLR used a wave energy converter model from PacWave. These devices can be equipped with accumulators and pressure relief values to smooth the power output by storing and releasing hydraulic energy. Using a peak power output of 10 MW, the model created two 25-minute profiles: one with and one without the accumulators and pressure relief valves. To down select the profile data from the native resolution of 20 Hz to 1 Hz, NLR took the mean of every 20 data points. NLR experimented with two simulated wave energy power plants: one that peaks at 10 MW, and one that peaks at 5 MW. These profiles were scaled for the physical 1.25 MW electrolyzer by multiplying the original profiles by one eighth and one quarter, respectively. The first profile matches the capacity rating of eight of the 1.25 MW electrolyzers, while the second matches four electrolyzers. Finally, NLR experimented with two settings for the electrolyzer power supply minimum and maximum current ramp rates (gain and slew): 200 and 400 amperes per second. The simulated profiles were translated from power (kilowatts) to current (amperes) using a curve fit with calibration data and sent to the electrolyzer power supply at 1-Hz frequency. These datasets report relevant hydrogen balance-of-plant and system data, all captured at 1 Hz, including hydrogen mass production measured with an Emerson Coriolis flow meter. Each .zip file represents a single wave electrolysis experiment and is formatted as follows: {technology}-{accumulator?}_{number of 1.25 MW electrolyzers connected}-{electrolyzer ramp rate in amperes/second} For instance, “wavePacWave-Noacc_4-400.zip” represents the 25 minute-long experiment using the PacWave’s wave energy converter model, equipped with no accumulator, connected to four 1.25-MW electrolyzers with their power supplies set to a maximum current ramp rate (gain and slew) of 400 A/s. Each .zip folder contains the following files: A .csv file containing raw data. An .xlsx file explaining all the fields in the raw data. A .png plot showing the time series of hydrogen production in kilograms per hour, electrolysis power consumption, and input wave power. An experiment, labeled “characterization_200.zip”, demonstrates the MC250 electrolyzer steady-state response with 30 minute load steps for a total duration of 5 hours. Finally, a .csv file is provided with all wave profiles combined into one dataset labeled "combined_wave_experiments.csv". NLR also built an AI/machine-learning predictive model based on these datasets. The model ingests the electrolyzer current command in amperes, as well as various pressures and temperatures across the system, and predicts hydrogen output in kilograms per hour. The complete model can be found at https://huggingface.co/NatLabRockies/ptmelt-hydrogen-electrolysis.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2026

Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis - NLR Historical Wind

The U.S. Department of Energy and the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) demonstrate hydrogen electrolysis from variable sources, hydrogen compression and storage, and hydrogen fuel cell power production using megawatt-scale equipment at NLR’s Flatirons Campus as part of the Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) initiative. This dataset represents part of that effort and is intended for academic, national laboratory, industrial, and other stakeholders to plan, design, and validate models of megawatt-scale hydrogen technologies and diverse energy infrastructure nationwide. These data provide a baseline for how existing hydrogen electrolysis technologies perform when coupled with various energy technologies. Future datasets will demonstrate how existing hydrogen fuel cell technologies can provide controllable, dispatchable, and variable power output for artificial intelligence (AI) data centers and other variable loads. This dataset entry describes hydrogen production by conducting a statistical analysis of historical wind data over a five-year period (2020-2025) from a single 1.5MW turbine manufactured by General Electric (GE) located at NLR’s Flatirons Campus, to generate an experimental test profile that was deployed on a 1.25-MW proton exchange membrane type MC250 electrolyzer system manufactured by Nel Hydrogen . [1] While the electrolyzer balance-of-plant supports up to 2.5 MW of electrolysis, NLR only has a single 1.25-MW electrolysis stack. The historical wind data provided several metrics, however, the analysis particularly focused on the measured power output by the wind turbine. The power output time series of data for each day was categorized by total energy generation and standard deviation, and the day that represented the highest combination of these two metrics was chosen – December 25th, 2022. This process was then repeated for a moving four-hour window within this day to identify the most statistically variable period. Finally, this four-hour period was scaled by 65% to match the 1.25 MW electrolyzer. The electrolysis system controls hydrogen production by varying DC current applied to the stack, from a maximum of 3000 A to a minimum safe operation of 300 A, or 10%. Because the current – voltage characteristic changes as the stack ages and efficiency degrades, the actual minimum safe operating power changes over time. The historical wind profiles were translated from power (kilowatts) to current (amperes) using a curve fit with calibration data and sent to the electrolyzer power supply at 1 Hz frequency. For more details on the statistical analysis process, see the presentation labeled “ Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis” provided with each data entry. These datasets report relevant hydrogen balance-of-plant and system data, all captured at 1 Hz, including hydrogen mass production measured with an Emerson Coriolis flow meter. Each .zip file represents a single wind turbine electrolysis experiment and is formatted as follows: {technology}_{scaling factor}-{electrolyzer ramp rate in amperes/second} For instance, “wind-GE1.5MW_0.65-400.zip” represents the hour-long experiment using historical data from the wind-GE1.5MW turbine, scaled to 65%, with the electrolyzer power supply set to a maximum ramp rate (gain and slew) of 400 A/s. Each .zip folder contains the following files: A .csv file containing raw data An .xlsx file explaining all the fields in the raw data. A .png plot showing the time series of hydrogen production, electrolysis power consumption, and wind power input. A PDF file detailing the historical wind data statistical analysis used to generate the wind profile. An experiment labeled “characterization_200.zip” demonstrates the MC250 electrolyzer steady-state response with 30-minute load steps for a total duration of 5 hours. Finally, a .csv file is provided with all simulated wind experiments combined into one dataset labeled "combined_historical_wind_experiments.csv". NLR also built an AI/machine-learning predictive model based on these datasets. The model ingests the electrolyzer current command in amperes, as well as various pressures and temperatures across the system, and predicts hydrogen output in kilograms per hour. The complete model can be found at https://huggingface.co/NatLabRockies/ptmelt-hydrogen-electrolysis [1] nelhydrogen.com/product/mc-series-electrolyser .

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2025

Rare Lepton Decays and Differentiable Hadronization Models - From Signatures of New Physics to Data-driven Event Generation

This dissertation is partitioned into two parts: phenomenological studies focused on rare lepton decays as probes of heavy and light new physics, and the development of differentiable, data-driven hadronization models. Part I develops the phenomenology of new physics signatures stemming from rare charged lepton flavor violating decays probed by experiments at the intensity frontier. These include interactions mediated by both high-scale effective operators and light new physics, manifesting in multi-lepton final states ($\mu \to 5e$), elastic nuclear transitions ($\mu \to e$ conversion), baryon-number-violating muon capture, and time-dependent signals from ultralight dark matter ($\mu \to e \phi, \tau \to \ell \phi$). Part II develops two distinct strategies for advancing differentiable and data-driven hadronization models. One involves comprehensive reweighting frameworks for hadronization that enable efficient uncertainty estimation, facilitate parameter tuning, and interface naturally with differentiable programming paradigms. The other introduces machine-learning-based methods for extracting microscopic fragmentation dynamics directly from macroscopic observables through the deformation of existing models -- effectively providing solutions to the inverse problem of hadronization. Altogether, these studies advance the interpretability, flexibility, and precision of theoretical predictions for both high-intensity and high-energy experiments.

Menzo, Tony [Cincinnati U.] (ORCID:000000022013457↗

NASA NTRS2022

A Framework for Deep Learning Emulation of Numerical Models With a Case Study in Satellite Remote Sensing

Numerical models based on physics represent the state of the art in Earth system modeling and comprise our best tools for generating insights and predictions. Despite rapid growth in computational power, the perceived need for higher model resolutions overwhelms the latest generation computers, reducing the ability of modelers to generate simulations for understanding parameter sensitivities and characterizing variability and uncertainty. Thus, surrogate models are often developed to capture the essential attributes of the full-blown numerical models. Recent successes of machine learning methods, especially deep learning (DL), across many disciplines offer the possibility that complex nonlinear connectionist representations may be able to capture the underlying complex structures and nonlinear processes in Earth systems. A difficult test for DL-based emulation, which refers to function approximation of numerical models, is to understand whether they can be comparable to traditional forms of surrogate models in terms of computational efficiency while simultaneously reproducing model results in a credible manner. A DL emulation that passes this test may be expected to perform even better than simple models with respect to capturing complex processes and spatiotemporal dependencies. Here, we examine, with a case study in satellite-based remote sensing, the hypothesis that DL approaches can credibly represent the simulations from a surrogate model with comparable computational efficiency. Our results are encouraging in that the DL emulation reproduces the results with acceptable accuracy and often even faster performance. We discuss the broader implications of our results in light of the pace of improvements in high-performance implementations of DL and the growing desire for higher resolution simulations in the Earth sciences.

Bayesian Deep Learning↗

NASA NTRS2017

Machine Learning Approaches to Increasing Value of Spaceflight Omics Databases

The number of spaceflight bioscience mission opportunities is too small to allow all relevant biological and environmental parameters to be experimentally identified. Simulated spaceflight experiments in ground-based facilities (GBFs), such as clinostats, are each suitable only for particular investigations -- a rotating-wall vessel may be 'simulated microgravity' for cell differentiation (hours), but not DNA repair (seconds) -- and introduce confounding stimuli, such as motor vibration and fluid shear effects. This uncertainty over which biological mechanisms respond to a given form of simulated space radiation or gravity, as well as its side effects, limits our ability to baseline spaceflight data and validate mission science. Machine learning techniques autonomously identify relevant and interdependent factors in a data set given the set of desired metrics to be evaluated: to automatically identify related studies, compare data from related studies, or determine linkages between types of data in the same study. System-of-systems (SoS) machine learning models have the ability to deal with both sparse and heterogeneous data, such as that provided by the small and diverse number of space biosciences flight missions; however, they require appropriate user-defined metrics for any given data set. Although machine learning in bioinformatics is rapidly expanding, the need to combine spaceflight/GBF mission parameters with omics data is unique. This work characterizes the basic requirements for implementing the SoS approach through the System Map (SM) technique, a composite of a dynamic Bayesian network and Gaussian mixture model, in real-world repositories such as the GeneLab Data System and Life Sciences Data Archive. The three primary steps are metadata management for experimental description using open-source ontologies, defining similarity and consistency metrics, and generating testing and validation data sets. Such approaches to spaceflight and GBF omics data may soon enable unique insight into which measured phenomena correlate to biological mechanisms that are truly affected by spaceflight conditions; which are most likely to be confounded by other variables; and which are insufficiently characterized, significantly increasing existing and future science return from ISS and spaceflight missions.

Gentry, Diana↗

DOE OSTI2025

Toward equitable environmental exposure modeling through convergence of data, open, and citizen sciences: an example of air pollution exposure modeling amidst increasing wildfire smoke

Exposure modeling is critical in environmental epidemiology and human health but may face challenges (e.g., skewed data, unequal error, context-insensitive validation, and computational demands). Modeling decisions reflect the intended use of the models and the values that modelers prioritize. We aimed to provide a conceptual framework and machine learning (ML) modeling protocols that address these issues. With 500m-gridded hourly PM 2.5 and O 3 levels in Illinois before, during, and after the 2023 Canadian wildfire season as a motivating example, we conducted modeling experiments to evaluate modeling methods, guided by three domains we propose based on theories of science: 1) Data Diversity, leveraging open and citizen science data to enhance inclusivity, parsimony, and representativeness; 2) Equitable Accuracy, ensuring fairly distributed uncertainties across subpopulations; and 3) Sustainable Modeling, balancing accuracy with reducing computational demands to promote accessibility for under-resourced researchers. Here, we found that ML with publicly available data can achieve high accuracy. Depending on methods, performance may vary substantially, even with identical input data. Large but skewed data may reduce performance. Misuse of cross-validation protocols can underestimate prediction error; although we observed R 2 s of ∼98 %, the modeled estimates varied significantly, indicating the need for careful model validation. By using new modeling protocols including representativeness-considered training and validation data and a new loss function, we achieved high agreement between estimates and ground-based measurements (e.g., R 2 = ∼90 % for PM 2.5 ; ∼80 % for O 3 ), equally distributed errors across sociodemographic strata and urban–rural divides, and reduction in computation time—from several weeks or months to a few days.

Exposure assessment↗

DOE OSTI2024

AEOLUS: Advances in Experimental Design, Optimal Control, and Learning for Uncertain Complex Systems

Sustained advances in the mathematics of modeling and simulation have resulted in the capability today for routine simulation of a number of large scale complex DOE-relevant systems. As remarkable as this capability for solving the so-called forward problem is, it is typically only the first step-an inner loop within an outer loop that explores the simulation model's parameter space and decision space to characterize uncertainty in the model's predictions, learn unknown model parameters from data, design the most informative experiments, determine optimal control strategies, and create optimal designs. Broadly, what unifies all of these outer loop problems is that they are, in one form or another, optimization problems over parameter/control/design space that are constrained by complex uncertain models. To fully realize the power of scientific simulation as a basis for scientific discovery, technological innovation, and rational decision-making, it is imperative to move beyond simulation to tackle the outer loop of optimization for learning from data, experimental design, and control with complex uncertain models. When the models under consideration are large-scale and complex, and when the optimization variable and uncertain parameter spaces are high (or infinite) dimensional, this constitutes a grand challenge of the highest order, and is intractable with conventional methods. To overcome these challenges, the AEOLUS Center was established to develop a unified mathematical, computational, and statistical framework for (1) Learning predictive models from complex data via Bayesian inference and optimization, and (2) Optimizing experiments, processes, and designs using the resulting uncertain models. These problems are intractable with conventional methods, for several reasons: (1) The simulation problems that govern the inner loops of the optimization problems are expensive to execute (due to severe nonlinearity, heterogeneity, multiphysics/multiscale coupling); (2) The optimization variable and uncertain parameter spaces are high dimensional, often stemming from discretizations of infinite dimensional fields such as initial conditions, sources, or material properties. We argue that the key to overcoming these challenges is to develop new mathematical, computational, and statistical methods that exploit the structure of the Bayesian inference and optimization problems mediated by their underlying complex uncertain models. This structure includes the regularity, sparsity, geometry, low intrinsic dimensionality, and multifidelity nature of the maps from uncertain parameter/optimization variable spaces to the specific objectives targeted: Bayesian inference, optimal experimental design, and optimal control design. Black box methods developed as generic tools are incapable of exploiting this structure. To be successful, we must create, integrate, and cross-fertilize ideas across multiple areas of applied math--including approximation theory, Bayesian inference, data science, experimental design, information theory, machine learning, model reduction, optimal control theory, parallel algorithms, PDE-constrained optimization, randomized algorithms, stochastic optimization, and uncertainty quantification--all while exploiting the structure of the problems at hand. With this goal in mind, we have marshaled a team of leading authorities in these areas. While the methods we develop will be broadly applicable across a wide spectrum of DOE problems in which experiments inform models and the systems those models describe must be optimized under uncertainty, we have chosen a specific area, advanced manufacturing and materials, to drive our work. AMM is characterized by complex models across multiple scales, and is a rich source of challenging problems in inference, experimental design, and optimal control, requiring multifaceted and integrated advances in applied mathematics. As such, AMM serves as an excellent vehicle to motivate and demonstrate the advances in applied mathematics developed by our center.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗