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Results for “mesoscale convective systems”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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207 records · Page 12

Mesoscale Organization in Cumulus-Coupled Stratocumulus

Marine cloud systems cover a substantial portion of the world’s oceans. Most of these clouds form relatively close to the ocean surface, typically within one to two kilometers, a region referred to by meteorologists as the marine boundary layer. They are composed predominantly of liquid water, although ice particles can occur in mid- and high-latitude marine clouds during winter. In satellite imagery, these clouds appear bright against the darker ocean surface below, reflecting a large fraction of incoming sunlight back into space that would otherwise warm the ocean. Because marine boundary layer clouds cover such an extensive area of the ocean, they exert a significant influence on Earth’s overall transfer of solar energy absorbed by the surface and thermal energy emitted to space, a balance known as the planetary radiation budget. Marine boundary layer clouds are typically thin, and their formation and dissipation depend on a delicate balance between processes acting at the ocean surface below and the warm, dry air above. They are notoriously difficult to simulate accurately in weather forecast models, which often produce too few marine low clouds in midlatitudes and clouds in tropical regions that are excessively bright, meaning they reflect too much solar radiation. The marine boundary layer is frequently characterized by widespread overcast cloud cover that often transitions from a continuous, single-layer deck to more broken cloud fields toward the tropics. These transitions typically proceed through an intermediate stage in which shallow, broken clouds form beneath the overlying stratiform cloud deck. Once broken clouds develop below the overcast, they frequently self-organize into cloud clusters known as marine boundary layer convective complexes (MBLCCs), although the mechanisms governing the formation and organization of MBLCCs remain poorly understood. Accurately representing these transitions in long-range weather forecast models is essential because they influence the properties of air masses advected over the continental United States and Europe, and they become increasingly important for forecasts on seasonal and longer timescales. We employed two complementary approaches to investigate the processes controlling MBLCCs and their impact on marine cloud cover. Long-term observations from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) Observatory provided a unique dataset that allowed us to characterize fundamental properties of MBLCCs, including their typical size and frequency of occurrence. These observations were combined with high-resolution numerical simulations performed on supercomputers to examine the evolution of MBLCCs during cold-air outbreaks over the ENA region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improving the representation of shallow cumulus convection with the simplified-higher-order-closure–mass-flux (SHOC+MF v1.0) approach

Abstract. Parameterized boundary layer turbulence and moist convection remain some of the largest sources of uncertainty in general circulation models. High-resolution climate modeling aims to reduce that uncertainty by explicitly attempting to resolve deep moist convective motions. An example of such a model is the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) with a target global resolution of 3.25 km, allowing for a more accurate representation of complex mesoscale deep convective dynamics. Yet, small-scale planetary boundary layer turbulence and shallow convection still need to be parameterized, which in SCREAM is accomplished through the turbulent-kinetic-energy-based (TKE-based) simplified higher-order closure (SHOC) – a simplified version of the assumed-double-Gaussian-PDF (probability density function) higher-order-closure method. In this paper, we implement a stochastic-multiplume mass-flux (MF) parameterization of dry and shallow convection in SCREAM to go beyond the limitations of double-Gaussian-PDF closures and couple it to SHOC (SHOC+MF). The new parameterization implemented in a single-column model type version of SCREAM produces results for two shallow cumulus convection cases (marine and continental shallow convection) that agree well with the reference data from large-eddy simulations, thus improving the general representation of the thermodynamic quantities and their turbulent fluxes as well as cloud macrophysics in the model. Furthermore, SHOC+MF parameterization shows weak sensitivity to the vertical grid resolution and model time step.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Lake Huron Enhances Snowfall Downwind of Lake Erie: A Modeling Study of the 2010 New Year’s Lake Effect Snowfall Event

In the Northeast and Great Lakes regions of the United States, the influence of multiple lakes on the overlying air can greatly affect lake-effect snowfall over downwind communities. To assess the impact of Lake Huron on snowfall downwind of Lake Erie, we simulated a lake-effect snow event which occurred from 1 to 6 January 2010 using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). We found that the presence of Lake Huron enhances snowfall downwind of Lake Erie by almost 20% and leads to much heavier local snowfall totals than when Lake Huron is not present. This increase in snowfall is due to a lake-to-lake (L2L) convective band, as secondary circulations associated with lake-effect convection form over Lake Huron and persist overland between the lakes before reintensifying over Lake Erie. As these secondary circulations move over Lake Erie, lifting within the upward branch of the circulations accelerates the development of convection within the L2L band. Surface fluxes and convection over Lake Huron deepen the boundary layer, promoting deeper vertical development of this L2L band over Lake Erie. However, although this boundary layer modification strengthens the L2L band, we found that it actually reduced lake-effect snowfall produced by wind-parallel bands (WPB) in other parts of the lake. This indicates that boundary layer modification from upstream lakes may impact L2L bands differently than WPB which are not connected to upstream secondary circulations.

Lake effects↗

Quantifying the Thermodynamic Impacts on the Atmospheric Boundary Layer due to the Sea Breeze in the Coastal Houston Region

The atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is unique in coastal regions because of kinematic and thermodynamic influences from continental and marine environments. Sea-breeze (SB) circulations act to equilibrate the land–sea temperature gradient through advecting marine air onshore. The strength of the SB varies in terms of stability, temperature, and moisture advection and influences air quality and weather forecasts. The Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) collected a wealth of data on coastal boundary layer evolution, including observations from uncrewed aerial systems (UASs). Vertical profiles of temperature, humidity, and winds were collected by the OU CopterSonde UAS from June to September in the coastal region of Houston. These profiles offer 5-m vertical resolution, on average, every 30 min through diurnal transitions, SB events, and nearby deep convection. During the campaign, CopterSonde observations were gathered through 17 SB events, six of which led to convection initiation. The UAS data can resolve the thermodynamic evolution and interactions between the SB and the preexisting convective boundary layer. Results show large variability across observed SBs and their impacts on temperature and moisture. The intensity of thermodynamic changes depends on the time of sea-breeze passage and influence from the Galveston Bay Breeze, a secondary marine circulation commonly observed in this region. In quantifying the spectrum of SB impacts, equivalent potential temperature θ e is used to contextualize its role in convection initiation and evolution. In conclusion, while all SBs tend to increase θ e from moisture advection, the rate and timing of the θ e rise can distinguish convective from nonconvective cases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Amazonian Low-Level Jet and Its Connection to Convective Cloud Propagation and Evolution

In this work, we describe the existence of an Amazonian low-level jet (ALLJ) that can affect the propagation and life cycle of convective systems from the northeast coast of South America into central Amazonia. Horizontal winds from reanalysis were analyzed during March–April–May (MAM) of the two years (2014–15) of the GoAmazon2014/5 field campaign. Convective system tracking was performed using GOES-13 infrared imagery and classified into days with high and weak convective activity. The MAM average winds show a nocturnal enhancement of low-level winds starting near the coast in the early evening and reaching 1600 km inland by late morning. Mean 3-hourly wind speeds maximize at 9–10 m s -1 near 900 hPa, but individual days can have nighttime low-level winds exceeding 12 m s -1 . Based on objective low-level wind criteria, the ALLJ is present 10%–40% of the time over the Amazon during MAM depending on the location and time of day. The evolution of the ALLJ across the Amazon impacts the frequency of occurrence of cloud clusters and the intensity of the moisture flux. In addition, the ALLJ is associated with the enhancement of northeasterly flow in the midtroposphere during active convective days, when vertical momentum transport may be occurring in the organized cloud clusters. During the weakly active convective period, the ALLJ is weaker near the coast but stronger across the central Amazon and appears to be linked more directly with the South American low-level jet.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Improving the representation of isopycnal mixing in E3SM (Final Report)

The DOE-supported Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) is a major attempt by the Department of Energy to develop a new Earth System Model using unstructured grids, which allow for the model to concentrate resolution where it is most needed and avoid numerical artifacts experienced by previous Earth System Models (ESMs) using regular grids in which the lateral resolution becomes extremely fine as the resolution shrinks at the poles. This effort required rewriting many of the algorithms previously developed for regular grids. One algorithm that was problematic in the first version of E3SM was the representation of mixing due to turbulent ocean eddies with scales smaller than the model grid. These mesoscale eddies are the primary way by which tracers are stirred along density surfaces in the ocean interior. In particular, the process of isopycnal mixing exchanges fresher, more oxygenated waters from polar regions with saltier, nutrient-rich and oxygen poor waters from tropical regions. Previous work in our group has shown that this mechanism is vitally important for bringing oxygen into poorly ventilated tropical regions (Gnanadesikan et al., 2012, 2013) and plays a significant role in determining the uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (Gnanadesikan et al., 2015). However, in E3SMv1 this process was turned off, as turning it on caused the model to become unstable. Additionally, the rate of isopycnal mixing is directly proportional to a mixing coefficient $A_{Redi}$ whose value varies from less than 400 m 2 /s to 2000 m 2 /s across contemporary climate models. The main thrusts of this proposal therefore were to: 1.) Improve the numerics of isopycnal mixing in E3SM; 2.) Identify ways in which climate models are sensitive to the isopycnal mixing coefficient; and 3.) Develop better representations of the isopycnal mixing coefficient.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Influence of Antarctic and Greenland Continental Shelf Circulation on High‐Latitude Oceans in E3SM

The science objectives of this project are to simulate and understand the impacts of both deep-basin warm-water intrusions and land-ice melt on the continental shelf circulations and sea-ice distributions around the margins of Greenland and Antarctica. As well, the role of subsurface ocean heat from the Atlantic on declining sea-ice cover in the Arctic is explored. Mesoscale processes and fine bathymetry are implicated in cross-shelf property transports around both Greenland and Antarctica. Therefore, we configured and ran an atmospheric reanalysis-forced global ocean/sea-ice simulation on a grid that reduces from 8 km at the Equator to 2 km at the poles (UH8to2) with 60 vertical levels. It was produced using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model ‘‘HiLAT’’ code (E3SMv0-HiLAT) that uses the Parallel Ocean Program (POP) and CICE5 as its ocean and sea-ice components, respectively. Two main UH8to2 simulations were carried out: one for 1975-2009 and the other for July 2016-2020 after it was initialized from a 1/25° data-assimilative ocean/sea-ice prediction system ocean/sea-ice state. The UH8to2 is not coupled to an active land-ice model. Rather, land-ice melt is represented by observationally informed freshwater fluxes (FWFs). Short (multi-year) UH8to2 simulations were conducted to understand sensitivities when Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) melt is released only at the ocean surface or when it is distributed over the upper water column in accordance with fjord melt plume behavior; these cases were compared with a no GrIS melt case. West Greenland continental shelf currents were fastest in the vertical distribution case and an increase in baroclinic conversion at the shelf break associated with increased eddy kinetic energy was found relative to the surface release case. Further, salinity is lower and meltwater volume greater in the eastern Labrador Sea in the vertical distribution case. For the Arctic, the veracity of the UH8to2 was evaluated for 2017-2020 using available observations. Simulated seasonal sea-ice thickness and concentration are realistic, but the ice is unrealistically thin in the central and eastern Arctic in the fall. Comparisons of vertical sections of ocean temperature, salinity, and buoyancy collected from Ice-Tethered Profilers (ITPs) in the eastern Arctic in the fall and winter of 2019/2020 and co-located/concurrent UH8to2 fields show the stratification over the top 100 m of the water column is too low in the model, the simulated mixed layer too deep, and the simulated subsurface Atlantic Water (AW) too warm; these biases may contribute to the sea-ice biases. A model intercomparison study using the UH8to2 and a forced 1/25° regional Arctic ocean/sea-ice (uses the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model and CICE5) simulation further investigates the relationship between AW and sea-ice in the eastern Arctic. The models show a mesoscale-rich pulse of Atlantic Water extending into the eastern basin that reaches maximum intensity in late winter of 2018, after which it decreases in strength. Concurrent and co-located sea-ice melt or the inhibition of sea-ice growth is seen and is attributed to halocline mesoscale eddies doming into the mixed layer with convection bringing this heat into the vicinity of the sea-ice.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Assimilation of a Coordinated Fleet of Uncrewed Aircraft System Observations in Complex Terrain: Observing System Experiments

Uncrewed aircraft system (UAS) observations from the Lower Atmospheric Profiling Studies at Elevation–A Remotely-Piloted Aircraft Team Experiment (LAPSE-RATE) field campaign were assimilated into a high-resolution configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. The impact of assimilating targeted UAS observations in addition to surface observations was compared to that obtained when assimilating surface observations alone using observing system experiments (OSEs) for a terrain-driven flow case and a convection initiation (CI) case observed within Colorado’s San Luis Valley (SLV). The assimilation of UAS observations in addition to surface observations results in a clear increase in skill for both flow regimes over that obtained when assimilating surface observations alone. For the terrain-driven flow case, the UAS observations improved the representation of thermal stratification across the northern SLV, which produced stronger upvalley flow over the eastern half of the SLV that better matched the observations. For the CI case, the UAS observations improved the representation of the pre-convective environment by reducing dry biases across the SLV and over the surrounding terrain. This led to earlier CI and more organized convection over the foothills that spilled outflows into the SLV, ultimately helping to increase low-level convergence and CI there. In addition, the importance of UAS capturing an outflow that originated over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and triggered CI is discussed. These outflows and subsequent CI were not well captured in the simulation that assimilated surface observations alone. We report that observations obtained with a fleet of UAS are shown to notably improve high-resolution analyses and short-term predictions of two very different mesogamma-scale weather events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Amplified Mesoscale and Submesoscale Variability and Increased Concentration of Precipitation under Global Warming over Western North America

Abstract Cold-season precipitation statistics in simulations from the storm-resolving WRF Model at 6-km and 1-h resolution over western North America are analyzed. Pseudo–global warming future simulations for the 2041–80 period, constrained by GCMs under the RCP8.5 scenario, are compared to the 1981–2020 historical simulation. The analysis focuses on the dynamical properties of precipitation time series at subdaily scales and on the morphology of storms. The statistical distribution of precipitation intensities in each pixel of the simulation domain is characterized through nonparametric statistical indicators: frequency of wet hours, mean wet-hour precipitation intensity, and Gini coefficient as a measure of the temporal concentration of the precipitation volume. Additionally, the temporal and spatial Fourier power spectra of precipitation time series and precipitation fields are analyzed. The half-power period (HPP) and half-power wavelength (HPW) are defined as spectral measures of the characteristic scales of precipitation’s temporal and spatial patterns. The results show statistically significant increases in the mean wet-hour precipitation intensity and in the Gini coefficient in 99% of the pixels, indicating that the seasonal precipitation volume becomes more concentrated within a smaller number of hours with higher precipitation intensity. The statistics of change in the frequency of wet hours are more contrasted across the simulation domain. The changes are also reflected in the power spectra, which show the spatial and temporal variability increasing proportionally more with finer spatial and temporal scales and the HPW and HPP decreasing. These projected changes are expected to have consequences, not only in terms of hydrologic impacts but also in terms of the predictability of precipitation patterns. Significance Statement The precipitation characteristics of winter storms over the western United States and southwestern Canada are analyzed in future climate simulations for the 2041–80 period. As compared to present-day climate, the most intense parts of the storms are projected to produce a higher rainfall volume, with increased concentration over smaller areas and shorter time intervals. The propensity of rainfall intensity to vary rapidly over time will be enhanced in the future according to the simulations. These model predictions imply an increased risk of rapid flooding in small basins. They also suggest that predicting several hours ahead the time and location at which a storm will produce maximum rainfall may become more challenging in the future.

Climate change↗