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DOE OSTI2021

Gap-filling eddy covariance methane fluxes: Comparison of machine learning model predictions and uncertainties at FLUXNET-CH4 wetlands

Time series of methane fluxes measured by eddy-covariance require gap-filling to estimate annual emissions. Gap-filling methane fluxes is challenging because of high variability and complex responses to multiple drivers. To date, there is no widely established gap-filling standard for methane, with regards both to the best model algorithms and predictors. In this study, we address the need for standardization by synthesizing results of gap-filling methods applied at 17 wetland sites spanning boreal to tropical regions including all major wetlands classes and two rice paddies. We introduce new procedures for: 1) creating realistic artificial gap scenarios, 2) training and evaluating gap-filling models without overstating performance, and 3) predicting half-hourly methane fluxes and annual emissions with robust uncertainty estimates. We tested a conventional method (marginal distribution sampling) and four machine learning algorithms - penalized linear regression, artificial neural networks, random forests, and boosted decision trees - and four predictor sets, including temporal, meteorological, ecosystem carbon and energy flux, and soil predictors. We find that the conventional method can achieve similar median performance to the machine learning models but is worse than the best machine learning models and relatively insensitive to predictor choices. Of the machine learning models, decision tree algorithms performed the best in cross-validation experiments, even with a baseline predictor set, and artificial neural networks showed comparable performance when using all predictors. Soil temperature was frequently the most important predictor whilst water table depth was important at sites with substantial water table fluctuations, highlighting the value of data on soil conditions. Raw gap-filling uncertainties from the machine learning models were underestimated and we propose a method to calibrate uncertainties to observations. Finally, we gap-fill and provide summary evaluation metrics for all 81 sites in the FLUXNET-CH4 community dataset and publicly release the python code for model development, evaluation, and uncertainty estimation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multi-fidelity microstructure-induced uncertainty quantification by advanced Monte Carlo methods

Quantifying uncertainty associated with the microstructure variation of a material can be a computationally daunting task, especially when dealing with advanced constitutive models and fine mesh resolutions in the crystal plasticity finite element method (CPFEM). Numerous studies have been conducted regarding the sensitivity of material properties and performance to the mesh resolution and choice of constitutive model. However, a unified approach that accounts for various fidelity parameters, such as mesh resolutions, integration time-steps and constitutive models simultaneously is currently lacking. Further, this paper proposes a novel uncertainty quantification (UQ) approach for computing the properties and performance of homogenized materials using CPFEM, that exploits a hierarchy of approximations with different levels of fidelity. In particular, we illustrate how multi-level sampling methods, such as multi-level Monte Carlo (MLMC) and multi-index Monte Carlo (MIMC), can be applied to assess the impact of variations in the microstructure of polycrystalline materials on the predictions of homogenized materials properties. We show that by adaptively exploiting the fidelity hierarchy, we can significantly reduce the number of microstructures required to reach a certain prescribed accuracy. Finally, we show how our approach can be extended to a multi-fidelity framework, where we allow the underlying constitutive model to be chosen from either a phenomenological plasticity model or a dislocation-density-based model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

A review of coal heating value correlations with application to coal char, tar, and other fuels

Accurately measuring a fuel’s heating value is one of the first steps in the classification of a new fuel. Heating values are widely used in coal combustion research and are becoming more useful in other fuel types as well. Many different empirical correlations to predict heating values based on primary organic (CHONS) elemental composition are found in the literature, many of which were originally created to predict heating values of parent coal, and some of which have been extended for biomass. However, no correlations exist for heating values of coal chars and tars. Thirteen literature heating value correlations (10 model forms with 13 unique sets of coefficients) were evaluated for their predictive accuracy of a wide variety of fuel types, including 353 coals. This comparative analysis showed that the predictive capabilities of many of these literature models are very similar for coal-based fuels, with good correlation of coal char heating values. Correlation of coal tar heating values was hampered by the lack of heating value data. The choice of which model to use becomes more important for biomass fuels as well as for more unique fuel types like propellants and explosives, municipal solid waste, etc. Finally, the best model forms for each fuel type are suggested based on several statistical measures of fit.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2020

Shell-model study of calcium isotopes toward their drip line

Here, we report in this paper a study in terms of the nuclear shell model about the location of the calcium isotopes drip line. The starting point is considering the realistic two-body potential derived by Entem and Machleidt within chiral perturbation theory at next-to-next-to-next-to-leading order (N 3 LO), as well as a chiral three-body force at next-to-next-to-leading order (N 2 LO) whose structure and low-energy constants are consistent with the two-body potential. Then we construct the effective single-particle energies and residual interaction needed to diagonalize the shell-model Hamiltonian. The calculated two-neutron separation energies agree nicely with experiment until 56 Ca, which is the heaviest isotope whose mass has been measured, and do not show any sign of two-neutron emission until 70 Ca . We discuss the role of the choice of the model space in determining the neutron drip line, and also the dependence of the results on the parameters of the shell-model Hamiltonian.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2023

SALT2 versus SALT3: updated model surfaces and their impacts on type Ia supernova cosmology

ABSTRACT For the past decade, SALT2 has been the most common model used to fit Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) light curves for dark energy analyses. Recently, the SALT3 model was released, which upgraded a number of model features but has not yet been used for measurements of dark energy. Here, we evaluate the impact of switching from SALT2 to SALT3 for a SN cosmology analysis. We train SALT2 and SALT3 on an identical training sample of 1083 well-calibrated Type Ia supernovae, ensuring that any differences found come from the underlying model framework. We publicly release the results of this training (the SALT ‘surfaces’). We then run a cosmology analysis on the public Dark Energy Survey 3-Yr Supernova data sample (DES-SN3YR), and on realistic simulations of those data. We provide the first estimate of the SN + CMB systematic uncertainty arising from the choice of SALT model framework (i.e. SALT2 versus SALT3), Δw = + 0.001 ± 0.005 – a negligible effect at the current level of dark energy analyses. We also find that the updated surfaces are less sensitive to photometric calibration uncertainties than previous SALT2 surfaces, with the average spectral energy density dispersion reduced by a factor of two over optical wavelengths. This offers an opportunity to reduce the contribution of calibration errors to SN cosmology uncertainty budgets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Initializing BSQ with Open-Source ICCING

While it is well known that there is a significant amount of conserved charges in the initial state of nuclear collisions, the production of these due to gluon splitting has yet to be thoroughly investigated. The ICCING (Initial Conserved Charges in Nuclear Geometry) algorithm reconstructs these quark distributions, providing conserved strange, baryon, and electric charges, by sampling a given model for the g → qq¯ splitting function over the initial energy density, which is valid at top collider energies, even when µB = 0. The ICCING algorithm includes fluctuations in the gluon longitudinal momenta, a structure that supports the implementation of dynamical processes, and the c++ version is now open-source. A full analysis of parameter choices on the model has been done to quantify the effect these have on the underlying physics. We find there is a sustained difference across the different charges that indicates sensitivity to hot spot geometry.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hard jet substructure in a multistage approach

We present predictions and postdictions for a wide variety of hard jet-substructure observables using a multistage model within the framework. The details of the multistage model and the various parameter choices are described in []. A novel feature of this model is the presence of two stages of jet modification: a high-virtuality phase [modeled using the modular all twist transverse-scattering elastic-drag and radiation model ()], where modified coherence effects diminish medium-induced radiation, and a lower virtuality phase [modeled using the linear Boltzmann transport model ()], where parton splits are fully resolved by the medium as they endure multiple scattering induced energy loss. Energy-loss calculations are carried out on event-by-event viscous fluid dynamic backgrounds constrained by experimental data. The uniform and consistent descriptions of multiple experimental observables demonstrate the essential role of modified coherence effects and the multistage modeling of jet evolution. Using the best choice of parameters from [], and with no further tuning, we present calculations for the medium modified jet fragmentation function, the groomed jet momentum fraction z g and angular separation r g distributions, as well as the nuclear modification factor of groomed jets. These calculations provide accurate descriptions of published data from experiments at the Large Hadron Collider. Furthermore, we provide predictions from the multistage model for future measurements at the BNL Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

An unstructured C-grid type variational formulation for the sea ice dynamics

Historically, B-grid formulations of sea ice dynamics have been dominant because they have matched the grid type used by ocean models. The reason for the grid match is simple – it facilitates penetration of the curl of ice-ocean stress into the deep ocean with minimal numerical diffusivity because sea ice and ocean velocity are co-located. In recent years, as ocean models have increasingly progressed to C-grids, sea ice models have followed suit on quadrilateral meshes, but the implementation of an unstructured C-grid sea ice models is new. We present an unstructured C-grid discretization of the Elastic Viscous Plastic (EVP) rheology, where the velocity unknowns are discretized at the edges of the mesh cells with n-sides, where typically n is greater than or equal to four, rather than at the vertices, as in the B-grid. Our framework of choice is the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) within E3SM, the climate model of the U.S. Department of Energy, although our approach is general and could be applied to other models as well. While MPAS-Seaice is currently defined on a B-grid, MPAS-Ocean runs on a C-grid, hence interpolation operators are heavily used when coupled simulations are performed. In this work, we describe a mathematical formulation to transition the dynamics of MPAS-Seaice to a C-grid, in order to ultimately facilitate the coupling with MPAS-Ocean and reduce numerical errors associated with this communication. Numerical results are reported to highlight the features of the method.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Hydrodynamic computations of high-power laser drives generating metal ejecta jets from surface grooves

Understanding dynamic fragmentation in shock-loaded metals and predicting properties of the resulting ejecta are of considerable importance for both basic and applied science. The nature of material ejection has been shown to change drastically when the free surface melts on compression or release. In this work, we present hydrodynamic simulations of laser-driven microjetting from micron-scale grooves on a tin surface. We study microjet formation across a range of shock strengths from drives that leave the target solid after release to drives that induce shock melting in the target. The shock-state particle velocity (Up) varies from 0.3 to 3 km/s and the shock breakout pressure is 3–120 GPa. The microjet tip velocity is 1–8 km/s and the free-surface velocity varies from 0.1 to 5 km/s. Two tin equations of state are examined: a “soft” model (LEOS 501) where the target melts for U p > 1 km/s and a more detailed multiphase model (SESAME 2161) that melts for U p > 1.4 km/s. We use these two models to examine the influence of phase change and the choice of the material model on microjet formation and evolution. We observe in our computational results that jet formation can be classified into three regimes: a low-energy regime where material strength affects jet formation, a moderate-energy regime dominated by the changing phase of tin material, and a high-energy regime where results are insensitive to the material model and jet formation is described by an idealized steady-jet theory. Using an ensemble of 2D simulations, we show that these trends hold across a wide range of drive energies and groove angles.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Frequentist cosmological constraints from full-shape clustering measurements in DESI DR1

We present a frequentist analysis of clustering measurements from Data Release 1 of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) using the standard profile likelihood method. While Bayesian inferences for effective field theory models of galaxy clustering can be highly sensitive to prior choices for extended cosmological models, frequentist inferences are not susceptible to such effects. We compare frequentist and Bayesian constraints for the parameter set {σ 8 , H 0 , Ω m , w 0 , w a } using the full-shape power spectrum multipoles, post-reconstruction baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements, and external datasets from the CMB and type Ia supernovae measurements. The frequentist confidence intervals are significantly shifted relative to the Bayesian credible intervals for the w 0 w a CDM model, unless supernovae data are included. When DESI full-shape and BAO data are fit jointly, we obtain the following 1σ frequentist confidence intervals for ΛCDM (w 0 w a CDM): σ 8 = 0.863 +0.048 -0.040 , H 0 = 68.96 +0.81 -0.80 km s -1 Mpc -1 , Ω m = 0.3034 ± 0.0110 (σ 8 = 0.782 +0.060 -0.036 , H 0 = 63.7 +4.2 -2.0 km s -1 Mpc -1 , Ω m = 0.378 +0.024 -0.047 , w 0 = -0.16 +0.10 -0.50 , w a = -3.0 +1.7 ), corresponding to 0.8σ, 0.3σ, 0.7σ (2.1σ, 4.1σ, 6.5σ, 6.3σ, 6.6σ) shifts between the maximum likelihood estimate and the Bayesian posterior mean for ΛCDM (w 0 w a CDM) respectively.

Bayesian reasoning↗

DOE OSTI2020

High-contrast Thermal Infrared Spectroscopy with ALES: The 3–4 μm Spectrum of κ Andromedae b

We present the first L-band (2.8–4.1 μm) spectroscopy of κ Andromedae b, a ~20 M Jup companion orbiting at 1" projected separation from its B9-type stellar host. We combine our Large Binocular Telescope (LBT) Arizona Lenslets for Exoplanet Spectroscopy (ALES) integral field spectrograph data with measurements from other instruments to analyze the atmosphere and physical characteristics of κ And b. We report a discrepancy of ~20% (2σ) in the L' flux of κ And b when comparing to previously published values. We add an additional L' constraint using an unpublished imaging data set collected in 2013 using the LBT Interferometer/LMIRCam, the instrument in which the ALES module has been built. The LMIRCam measurement is consistent with the ALES measurement, both suggesting a fainter L-band scaling than previous studies. The data, assuming the flux scaling measured by ALES and LMIRCam imaging, are well fit by an L3-type brown dwarf. Atmospheric model fits to measurements spanning 0.9–4.8 μm reveal some tension with the predictions of evolutionary models, but the proper choice of cloud parameters can provide some relief. In particular, models with clouds extending to very low pressures composed of grains ≤1 μm appear to be necessary. If the brighter L' photometry is accurate, there is a hint that subsolar metallicity may be required.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Numerical and experimental investigation of the flame kernel growth in a methane/air mixture near the lean flammability limit

Lean combustion has the potential to improve the thermal efficiency of spark-ignition engines, but it faces the significant challenge of increased cycle-to-cycle variation due to low mixture reactivity and unstable flame dynamics. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) employing predictive models can guide engine design and optimize operating strategies for lean combustion. However, ignition and combustion models have rarely been validated at fuel-lean conditions, and a fundamental understanding of the early flame kernel growth process is also lacking for a successful sub-model development. Here, the present study develops a numerical simulation framework used to investigate early flame kernel growth in methane/air mixtures. A nanosecond-pulsed discharge (NPD) approach is employed to effectively decouple the flame kernel growth from the electrical discharge due to their difference in timescales, and equivalence ratios near the experimentally measured lean flammability limit (LFL) are selected to focus on challenging mixture conditions. Three numerical investigations, such as the choice of turbulence modeling, grid size, and grid control strategies, are examined to match both LFL and flame kernel structure measured from experiments. It is demonstrated that a quasi-direct numerical simulation (QDNS) with a fixed grid embedding of 10 μm can predict the LFL as φ CFD =0.61 and match the displacement speed of the kernel’s boundary marked in schlieren images. To predict the LFL and flame kernel shape, a fine grid (Δ≤12.5 μm) is needed to capture the consumption of formaldehyde (CH 2 O) in kernel’s reaction branches attached to the anode, and adaptive mesh refinement is replaced with the fixed embedding due to loss of simulation accuracy. Also, it is found that a large-eddy simulation (LES) using the Dynamic Structure model is not suitable for the NPD-induced flame kernel simulation because artificial sub-grid turbulent kinetic energy induced by shock dynamics alters the flow velocity calculation, resulting in divergence of LES from QDNS. Lastly, the simulation well matches the experimental data for the flame kernel evolution in three mixture conditions (φ = 0.7, 0.61, 0.55), showing toroidal flame kernel expansion and flame kernel growth/extinction.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty

Abstract. The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from −5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). ISMIP6 highlighted the different behaviors of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the possible role of increased surface mass balance in offsetting the dynamic ice loss in response to changing oceanic conditions in ice shelf cavities. However, the detailed contribution of individual glaciers, as well as the partitioning of uncertainty associated with this ensemble, have not yet been investigated. Here, we analyze the ISMIP6 results for high carbon emission scenarios, focusing on key glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we quantify their projected dynamic mass loss, defined here as mass loss through increased ice discharge into the ocean in response to changing oceanic conditions. We highlight glaciers contributing the most to sea level rise, as well as their vulnerability to changes in oceanic conditions. We then investigate the different sources of uncertainty and their relative role in projections, for the entire continent and for key individual glaciers. We show that, in addition to Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica, Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica present comparable future dynamic mass loss and high sensitivity to ice shelf basal melt. The overall uncertainty in additional dynamic mass loss in response to changing oceanic conditions, compared to a scenario with constant oceanic conditions, is dominated by the choice of ice sheet model, accounting for 52 % of the total uncertainty of the Antarctic dynamic mass loss in 2100. Its relative role for the most dynamic glaciers varies between 14 % for MacAyeal and Whillans ice streams and 56 % for Pine Island Glacier at the end of the century. The uncertainty associated with the choice of climate model increases over time and reaches 13 % of the uncertainty by 2100 for the Antarctic Ice Sheet but varies between 4 % for Thwaites Glacier and 53 % for Whillans Ice Stream. The uncertainty associated with the ice–climate interaction, which captures different treatments of oceanic forcings such as the choice of melt parameterization, its calibration, and simulated ice shelf geometries, accounts for 22 % of the uncertainty at the ice sheet scale but reaches 36 % and 39 % for Institute Ice Stream and Thwaites Glacier, respectively, by 2100. Overall, this study helps inform future research by highlighting the sectors of the ice sheet most vulnerable to oceanic warming over the 21st century and by quantifying the main sources of uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improving Projections of Antarctic Ice Sheet Contribution to Sea‐Level Change Through 2300 by Capturing Gravitational, Rotational, and Deformational Effects

Ice-mass change induces regionally varying patterns of sea-level change due to gravitational, rotational, and deformational (GRD) effects, which in turn influence marine-based ice stability in Antarctica. For improved projection of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS), there is a need for including GRD effects in modeling and improving understanding of basin-by-basin sensitivity of ice evolution to GRD effects under a range of climate scenarios. We couple a high-resolution, higher-order ice-sheet model with a 1D global sea-level model that fully captures GRD effects, and simulate ice evolution in Antarctica under the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 experiments. We perform two sets of coupled simulations incorporating 1D Maxwell solid Earth structure suitable for West and East Antarctica and show that the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) in West Antarctica has the highest sensitivity to GRD effects—in high-emission scenarios, grounding-line retreat accelerates by hundreds of kilometers by 2300 without GRD effects, but GRD effects delay this retreat on a timescale of decades. However, we find that delay times do not show a clear relationship to the strength of climate forcing alone. Furthermore, GRD effects can influence ice-sheet dynamics more than the choice of climate model for a given emissions scenario. In contrast, East Antarctica exhibits minimal sensitivity to GRD effects throughout the study period. These findings underscore the critical role of GRD effects in shaping future West AIS evolution, highlighting the importance of constraining the regional 3D Earth structure and bed topography in West Antarctica, particularly the ASE.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Cross-code comparison of the impact of the fill tube on high yield implosions on the National Ignition Facility

Fill tubes are used to inject deuterium and tritium fuel into inertial confinement fusion capsules fielded on the National Ignition Facility. These fill tubes have been shown to have a detrimental effect on capsule performance, primarily by introducing a low-density pathway into the central fuel region that enables the jetting of ablation material into the hot spot. Due to the complexity of the highly nonlinear flow associated with the fill tube and the challenge of diagnosing the evolution of the fill tube jet late in the implosion experiments, the uncertainty in how this perturbation source evolves is great. In this work, we report on the results of a detailed code comparison performed to understand uncertainties in computational modeling of the impact of fill tubes on implosion performance. The study employed two radiation-hydrodynamics codes, HYDRA and xRAGE, which employ very different meshing strategies and hydrodynamics solvers, as well as two radiation transport methodologies, discrete ordinates and multi-group diffusion. Our results demonstrate generally good agreement between codes through most of the implosion although they indicate sensitivity to opacity averaging methods. Late in the implosion, differences arise in the distribution and amount of contaminant although these differences have a remarkably small impact on the amount of yield reduction due to the fill tube. While these results demonstrate sensitivity in fill tube modeling to algorithmic choices, the observed differences between codes are small relative to known sensitivities due to expected variations in the fill tube geometry. Finally, we have developed a methodology for performing multi-group diffusion simulations that show good agreement with the more accurate discrete ordinates method

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of Conduction Cooling Strategies for Wire Arc Additive Manufacturing

Metal additive manufacturing (AM) processing consists of numerous parameters which take time to optimize for various geometries. One aspect of the metal AM process that continues to be explored is the control of thermal energy accumulation during component manufacturing due to the melting and solidification of the feedstock. Excessive energy accumulation causes thermal failure of the component while minimal energy accumulation causes lack of fusion with the build plate or previous layer. The ability to simulate the thermal response of an AM component can increase research efficiency by reducing the time to optimize thermal energy accumulation. This paper presents an effective implementation of finite element analysis to determine the thermal response of a wire arc additive manufactured component with various build plate sizes and cooling methods including, integral build plate cooling, oversized build plates with passive cooling, and non-integral build plate cooling. The use of integral build plate cooling channels was shown to decrease the interpass temperature at the conclusion of the build process by 55% and build plate temperature by 96% compared to the conventionally deposited sample with 20 second dwell time. The use of a tall build plate with passive cooling was shown to reduce the interpass temperature by 32% as compared to the conventionally deposited sample with 20 second dwell time. Each cooling strategy evaluated decreased the interpass temperature within a range of 20–55% which enables higher deposition rates and decreased dwell times during depositions. The cooling strategies are designed to be implemented in a hybrid or retrofit AM platform to mitigate concerns of the thermal input from the additive process having detrimental effects on the precision of the machining process. This paper shows that accurate simulations of all strategies can be used to accurately predict the thermal response of the various strategies discussed. These cooling strategies will allow for increased deposition rates with comparable interpass temperature and decreased dwell time, increasing deposition efficiency. This model and these simulations are verified by experimental results. It is concluded that passive strategies, such as the over-sized tall build plate, can be used when liquid coolant in the AM environment could negatively affect the deposition process. Active cooling strategies, such as the integral build plate cooling could be used if low thermal conductivity materials are deposited or higher material deposition rates are desired. This paper discusses the use of active and passive cooling used during AM and shows how a simulation model can be used to make design choices for cooling strategies. The model also enables verification of select critical process parameters such as dwell times for a desired interpass temperature.

Heinrich, Lauren↗

DOE OSTI2025

Requirements on the gain calibration for LiteBIRD polarisation data with blind component separation

The detection of primordial B modes of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) could provide information about the early stages of the Universe's evolution. The faintness of this signal requires exquisite calibration accuracy and control of instrumental systematic effects which otherwise could bias the measurements. In this work, we study the impact of an imperfect relative polarisation gain calibration on the recovered value of the tensor-to-scalar ratio r for the LiteBIRD experiment, through the application of the blind Needlet Internal Linear Combination (NILC) foreground-cleaning method. We derive requirements on the relative calibration accuracy of the overall polarisation gain (Δg ν ) for each LiteBIRD frequency channel. Our results show that minimum variance techniques, as NILC, are less sensitive to systematic gain calibration uncertainties compared to a parametric approach, if the latter is not equipped with a proper modelling of these instrumental effects. In this study, the most stringent requirements are found in the channels where the CMB signal is relatively brighter, with the tightest constraints at 166 GHz (Δg ν ≈ 0.16%). This differs from the outcome of an analogous analysis performed with a parametric method, where the tightest requirements are obtained for the foreground-dominated channels. Gain calibration uncertainties, corresponding to the derived requirements, are then simultaneously propagated into all frequency channels. By doing so, we find that the overall impact on estimated r is lower than the total gain systematic budget for LiteBIRD approximately by a factor 5, due to the correlations of the impacts of gain calibration uncertainties in different frequency channels. In order to decouple the systematic effect from the specific choice of the model, we derive the requirements assuming constant spectral parameters for the foreground emission. To assess the robustness of the obtained results against more realistic scenarios, we repeat the analysis assuming sky models of intermediate and high complexity. In these further cases, we adopt an optimised NILC pipeline, called the Multi-Clustering NILC (MC-NILC). We find that the impact of gain calibration uncertainties on r is lower than the LiteBIRD gain systematics budget for the intermediate-complexity sky model. For the high-complexity case, instead, it would be necessary to tighten the requirements by a factor 1.8.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fully implicit crystal plasticity models representing orientations with modified Rodrigues parameters

Here, this work describes a crystal plasticity formulation combining several mathematical, numerical, and implementation choices to produce a highly efficient model. Specifically, the key choices in the implementation are (1) representing orientations with modified Rodrigues parameters, (2) implementing a fully coupled implicit time integration for the elastic stretch, the crystal orientations, and the model internal variables, (3) implementing the model in the NEML2 constitutive modeling framework, based on PyTorch, to vectorize the calculations and port the computation to GPUs and other hardware accelerators, and (4) an exact implementation of the consistent tangent matrix, even for arbitrary coupling to other field variables beyond the displacements, like temperature, neutron fluence, etc. The first two features of the model are, to our knowledge, novel. The paper considers each of these choices individually as well as the final model as a whole. This includes a full description of modified Rodrigues parameters, their advantages over other representations of orientations, the mathematical formulae and tools required to implement a model with modified Rodrigues parameters, and a detailed description of the geometry of the space of modified Rodrigues parameters (in an appendix). It also includes a description of a fully implicit time integration scheme for the orientations and the advantages in representing orientations with modified Rodrigues parameters in implementing such a model. The work then assess, via numerical examples, the advantages of fully coupled implicit time integration versus more common decoupled and explicit time integration schemes. These studies demonstrate the computational advantages of fully coupled integration versus other time integration algorithms, though the performance of the competing models depends on the complexity of the underlying single crystal model. The study concludes by demonstrating that the choice of time integration method affects the sharpness of the predicted texture, with explicit methods for integrating the orientations overestimating texture sharpness and implicit methods underestimating texture sharpness.

Crystal plasticity↗