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At least 217 records · Page 12

Simulation of a High-Confinement Tidal Energy Array (Abstract)

When the projected area of a current turbine array occupies a substantial fraction of a tidal or river channel cross-sectional area, the confinement associated with the channel boundaries substantially increases turbine efficiency. This effect can be exploited to substantially reduce the levelized cost of energy for current turbine arrays. However, the presence of such an array will affect inflow velocity, water depth, and circulation in the surrounding area. This has implications for array performance and environmental impacts. This project combines existing numerical modeling capability from PNNL with an understanding of confined array performance from UW. The work will 1) Simulate tidal currents and water surface elevation in a regional circulation model that includes the Knik Arm site at appropriate resolution; 2) Incorporate a varying thrust coefficient into this model that reflects the outcomes of tidal hydrodynamic simulations of confined turbine arrays; 3) Use the model to determine the effects of array operation on water levels and inflow conditions as a function of different blockage ratios and control strategies; and 4) Identify the “far field” environmental implications of operating an array of this type. UW will use the outputs from this model to evaluate the implications of “feedback effects” and variable inflow conditions on levelized cost of energy estimates for a confinement exploiting array of cross-flow turbines.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Abundances and Transients from Neutron Star–White Dwarf Mergers

Abstract We systematically investigate the mergers of neutron star–white dwarf binaries from beginning to end, with a focus on the properties of the inflows and outflows in accretion disks and their electromagnetic emissions. Using population synthesis models, we determine a subset of these binaries in which the white dwarf companion undergoes unstable mass transfer and complete tidal disruption, forming a large accretion disk around the neutron star. The material evolves according to a one-dimensional advection-dominated accretion-disk model with nuclear burning, neutrino emissions, and disk-surface wind ejection. The extreme dynamics of the entire process have proven difficult to analyze, and thus currently, the properties are poorly understood. The outflows from the mergers are iron- and nickel-rich, giving rise to optical and infrared emissions powered by the decay of the radioactive iron-type isotopes, calculated via the SuperNu light-curve code. We find these systems capable of powering bright, yet short-lived, optical transients with the potential to power gamma-ray bursts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Fast Machine Learning for Quantum Control of Microwave Qudits on Edge Hardware

Quantum optimal control is a promising approach to improve the accuracy of quantum gates, but it relies on complex algorithms to determine the best control settings. CPU or GPU-based approaches often have delays that are too long to be applied in practice. It is paramount to have systems with extremely low delays to quickly and with high fidelity adjust quantum hardware settings, where fidelity is defined as overlap with a target quantum state. Here, we utilize machine learning (ML) models to determine control-pulse parameters for preparing Selective Number-dependent Arbitrary Phase (SNAP) gates in microwave cavity qudits, which are multi-level quantum systems that serve as elementary computation units for quantum computing. The methodology involves data generation using classical optimization techniques, ML model development, design space exploration, and quantization for hardware implementation. Our results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach, with optimized models achieving low gate trace infidelity near $10^{-3}$ and efficient utilization of programmable logic resources.

Sanders, Flor [Columbia U.]↗

Using lower-redshift, non-CMB, data to constrain the Hubble constant and other cosmological parameters

Here we use updated Hubble parameter and baryon acoustic oscillation data, as well as other lower-redshift Type Ia supernova, Mg ii reverberation-measured quasar, quasar angular size, H ii starburst galaxy, and Amati-correlated gamma-ray burst data, to jointly constrain cosmological parameters in six cosmological models. The joint analysis provides model-independent determinations of the Hubble constant, H 0 = 69.7 ± 1.2 km s -1 Mpc -1 , and the current non-relativistic matter density parameter, Ω m0 = 0.295 ± 0.017. These error bars are factors of 2.2 and 2.3 larger than the corresponding error bars in the flat ΛCDM model from Planck TT,TE,EE+lowE+lensing cosmic microwave background anisotropy data. Based on the deviance information criterion (DIC), the flat ΛCDM model is most favored but mild dark energy dynamics and a little spatial curvature are not ruled out.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Commensuration Effects in Layered Nanoparticle Solids.

We have developed a hierarchical nanoparticle transport simulator (HINTS) and adapted it to study commensuration effects in two classes of nanoparticle (NP) solids: (1) a bilayer NP solid (BNS) with an energy offset and (2) a BNS as part of a field effect transistor (FET). HINTS integrates the ab initio characterization of single NPs with the phonon-assisted tunneling transition model of the NP-NP transitions into a kinetic Monte Carlo based simulation of the charge transport in NP solids. First, we studied a BNS with an interlayer energy offset Delta, possibly caused by a fixed electric field. Our results include the following. First, in the independent energy-offset model, we observed the emergence of commensuration effects when scanning the electron filling factor (FF) across integer values. These commensuration effects were profound as they reduced the mobility by several orders of magnitude. We analyzed these commensuration effects in a five-dimensional parameter space, as a function of the on-site charging energy E-C, energy offset Delta, disorder D, the electron FF, and temperature k(B)T. We demonstrated the complexity of our model by showing that at integer FFs commensuration effects are present in some regions of the parameter space, while they vanish in other regions, thus defining distinct dynamical phases of the model. We determined the phase boundaries between these dynamical phases. Second, using these results as a foundation, we shifted our focus to the experimentally much-studied NP-FETs. NP-FETs are also characterized by an interlayer energy offset Delta, which, in contrast to our first model, is set by the gate voltage V-G and thereby related to the electron FF. We repeated many of our simulations and again demonstrated the emergence of commensuration effects and distinct dynamical phases in these NP-FETs. Notably, the commensuration effects in the NP-FETs showed many similarities to those in the independent energy-offset BNS.

Qu, Luman↗

H 0 = 69.8 ± 1.3 km s - 1 Mpc - 1 , Ω m 0 = 0.288 ± 0.017 , and other constraints from lower-redshift, non-CMB, expansion-rate data

Here, we use updated Type Ia Pantheon+ supernova, baryon acoustic oscillation, and Hubble parameter (now also accounting for correlations) data, as well as new reverberation-measured C $\tiny{IV}$ quasar data, and quasar angular size, H $\tiny{II}$ starburst galaxy, reverberation-measured Mg $\tiny{II}$ quasar, and Amati correlated gamma-ray burst data to constrain cosmological parameters. We show that these data sets result in mutually consistent constraints and jointly use them to constrain cosmological parameters in six different spatially-flat and non-flat cosmological models. Our analysis provides summary model independent determinations of two key cosmological parameters: the Hubble constant, H 0 = 69.8 ± 1.3 km s -1 Mpc -1 , and the current non-relativistic matter density parameter, Ω m0 = 0.288 ± 0.017. Our summary error bars are 2.4 and 2.3 times those obtained using the flat ΛCDM model and Planck TT,TE,EE + lowE + lensing cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy data. Our H 0 value is very consistent with that from the local expansion rate based on the Tip of the Red Giant Branch and Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) data, is 2σ lower than that from the local expansion rate based on Cepheid and SN Ia data, and is 2σ higher than that in the flat ΛCDM model based on Planck TT,TE,EE + lowE + lensing CMB data. Our data compilation shows at most mild evidence for non-flat spatial hypersurfaces, but more significant evidence for dark energy dynamics, 2σ or larger in the spatially-flat dynamical dark energy models we study.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

THERMAL MODELING OF HANFORD LEAD CANISTER’S HEATER BENCH TESTS

A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was built to simulate planned testing of heater assemblies for the Hanford Lead Canister (HLC) project. The HLC is a canister storage system that will contain heaters to simulate the decay heat of nuclear material and provide the canister storage system with environmental conditions equivalent to the operating conditions on a dry storage pad. The HLC will be equipped with long-term data collection and monitoring systems to provide an early warning of corrosion, pitting, cracking, or other signs of canister degradation that might threaten the integrity of the containment boundary over the potentially long term of dry storage. An important part of the HLC development is to confirm the function and ability of the electric heater assemblies that were specially designed to provide heating similar to the decay heat of nuclear material contained within the canister storage system. Heater bench testing is planned for early 2022 in a test configuration that does not include the canister. The goal of the bench testing is to verify that the heaters can replicate the decay heat of a canister with nuclear material and to validate the thermal models, which are critical to understanding the HLC’s thermal environment, including the local air flow within the canister storage system. Testing of the heater assemblies inside the canister system are planned in the future to validate canister level thermal models, and rigorous pre-deployment testing of the complete HLC cask and canister system is intended to be completed before the HLC is deployed in the 2025-2026 timeframe. This study presents the pre-test temperature predictions of the bench testing. A description of the heater assemblies and planned bench testing is presented. The model was developed with the commercial CFD code STAR-CCM+. An uncertainty analysis was run with the CFD model to determine the uncertainty in the temperature predictions and provide a range over which the predicted temperatures are expected to vary. The uncertainty analysis was performed by coupling STAR-CCM+ with the software Dakota, which provides advanced parametric analyses, including quantification of margins and uncertainty with computational models. This work is expected to provide insight into SNF canister behavior.

Suffield, Sarah R.↗

THERMAL MODELING OF HANFORD CESIUM AND STRONTIUM CANISTERS DURING SIMULATED LOADING

A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was built to simulate planned testing of heater assemblies within a canister and overpack for the Hanford Lead Canister (HLC) project. The HLC is a canister storage system that will contain heaters to simulate the decay heat of nuclear material and provide the canister storage system with environmental conditions equivalent to the operating conditions on a dry storage pad. The HLC will be equipped with long-term data collection and monitoring systems to provide an early warning of corrosion, pitting, cracking, or other signs of canister degradation that might threaten the integrity of the containment boundary over the potentially long term of dry storage. An important part of the HLC development is to make pretest numerical predictions for the behavior of the heated canister during the simulated radiolytic decay heat testing, which simulates the dry storage system during loading operations. The simulated radiolytic decay heat test is planned for mid-2024 in a configuration that includes the heater assembly, overpack, and canister, but with the lids removed to allow loading cesium and strontium capsules into the canister. One of the goals of the test is to evaluate the thermal behavior of the canister and overpack assembly in the ambient air of the test facility, which will provide data critical to validating the thermal models and understanding how the HLC will perform as a system once deployed. To best approximate real-world conditions, the CFD model includes the full air volume of the mock-up truck bay the heated canister test will be performed in, enabling detailed investigation of how the heated canister affects airflow around it. Rigorous pre-deployment testing of the complete HLC cask and canister system is intended to be completed before the HLC is deployed in the 2028 timeframe. This study presents the pre-test temperature predictions of the simulated radiolytic decay heat test. A description of the heater assembly, canister, and overpack system is presented. The model was developed with the commercial CFD software STAR-CCM+. An uncertainty analysis was run with the CFD model to determine the uncertainty in the temperature predictions and provide a range over which the predicted temperatures are expected to vary. The uncertainty analysis was preformed by coupling STAR-CCM+ with the software Dakota, which provides advanced parametric analyses, including quantification of margins and uncertainty with computational models. This work is expected to provide insight into SNF canister behavior.

Carpenter-Graffy, Dina E.↗

Impacts of Experimentally Obtained Harmonic Spectrums of Residential Appliances on Distribution Feeder

Owing to the increased use of power electronic based appliances and energy-efficient home equipment such as modern lighting loads, the percentage of nonlinear loads has increased in the distribution system, which can impact system performance, loss, and stability. Thus a comprehensive knowledge of their power quality and harmonic analysis is essential to improve the load models, voltage stability assessment, determination of possible interactions at harmonic frequencies, protection planning, and the effect of system impedance. This paper focuses on harmonic load flow analysis for multiple residential load types to determine the expected impacts on an modeled distribution secondary. For this study, the household appliances include lighting, power electronic, resistive, and motor loads with a nominal supply voltage of 120 V single-phase or 240 V split phase at a nominal frequency of 60 Hz. The harmonic spectrums, as obtained from the experimental evaluation of real loads, are used to inform the harmonic load flow for a detailed secondary network, including the distribution service transformer extracted from a real distribution feeder's model. Additionally, the impact of voltage harmonics on a three-phase test load is presented with experimental results. The harmonic data of the transformer terminal voltage, as obtained from the former load flow study, are scaled to generate the source voltage for the three-phase configuration of the grid simulator to make the test setup very similar to a typical secondary design in the U.S.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗

Reactor rate modulation oscillation analysis with two detectors in Double Chooz

A θ 13 oscillation analysis based on the observed antineutrino rates at the Double Chooz far and near detectors for different reactor power conditions is presented. This approach provides a so far unique simultaneous determination of θ 13 and the total background rates without relying on any assumptions on the specific background contributions. The analysis comprises 865 days of data collected in both detectors with at least one reactor in operation. The oscillation results are enhanced by the use of 24.06 days (12.74 days) of reactor-off data in the far (near) detector. The analysis considers the ${\overline{\nu}}_e$ interactions up to a visible energy of 8.5 MeV, using the events at higher energies to build a cosmogenic background model considering fast-neutrons interactions and 9 Li decays. The background-model-independent determination of the mixing angle yields sin 2 (2 θ 13 ) = 0.094 ± 0.017, being the best-fit total background rates fully consistent with the cosmogenic background model. A second oscillation analysis is also performed constraining the total background rates to the cosmogenic background estimates. While the central value is not significantly modified due to the consistency between the reactor-off data and the background estimates, the addition of the background model reduces the uncertainty on θ 13 to 0.015. Along with the oscillation results, the normalization of the anti-neutrino rate is measured with a precision of 0.86%, reducing the 1.43% uncertainty associated to the expectation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Assembly of the Populus Microbiome Is Temporally Dynamic and Determined by Selective and Stochastic Factors

Recent work shows that the plant microbiome, particularly the initial assembly of this microbiome, influences plant health, survival, and fitness. Here, we characterize the initial assembly of the Populus microbiome across ten genotypes belonging to two poplar species in a common garden using 16S rRNA gene and ITS2 region amplicon sequencing of the leaf endosphere, leaf surface, root endosphere, and rhizosphere. We sampled these microbiomes three times throughout the first growing season and found that the composition of the microbiome changed dramatically over time across all plant-associated habitats and host genotypes. For archaea and bacteria, these changes were dominated by strong homogenizing selection (accounting for 29 to 62% of pairwise comparisons). However, fungal assembly was generally characterized by multiple ecological assembly processes (i.e., a mix of weak selective and dispersal processes). Interestingly, genotype, while a significant moderator of microbiome composition, generally explained less variation than sample date across plant-associated habitats. We defined a set of core genera that accounted for, on average, 36% of the microbiome. The relative abundance of this core community was consistent over time. Additionally, using source tracking modeling, we determined that new microbial taxa colonize from both aboveground and belowground sources, and combined with our ecological assembly null models, we found that both selective and dispersal processes explained the differences between exo- (i.e., leaf surface and rhizosphere) and endospheric microbiomes. Taken together, our results suggest that the initial assembly of the Populus microbiome is time-, genotype-, and habitat-dependent and is moderated by both selective and stochastic factors.

16S rRNA↗

Targeted inhibition of gut bacterial β-glucuronidase activity enhances anticancer drug efficacy

Irinotecan treats a range of solid tumors, but its effectiveness is severely limited by gastrointestinal (GI) tract toxicity caused by gut bacterial β-glucuronidase (GUS) enzymes. Targeted bacterial GUS inhibitors have been shown to partially alleviate irinotecan-induced GI tract damage and resultant diarrhea in mice. Here, we unravel the mechanistic basis for GI protection by gut microbial GUS inhibitors using in vivo models. We use in vitro, in fimo, and in vivo models to determine whether GUS inhibition alters the anticancer efficacy of irinotecan. We demonstrate that a single dose of irinotecan increases GI bacterial GUS activity in 1 d and reduces intestinal epithelial cell proliferation in 5 d, both blocked by a single dose of a GUS inhibitor. In a tumor xenograft model, GUS inhibition prevents intestinal toxicity and maintains the antitumor efficacy of irinotecan. Remarkably, GUS inhibitor also effectively blocks the striking irinotecan-induced bloom of Enterobacteriaceae in immune-deficient mice. In a genetically engineered mouse model of cancer, GUS inhibition alleviates gut damage, improves survival, and does not alter gut microbial composition; however, by allowing dose intensification, it dramatically improves irinotecan’s effectiveness, reducing tumors to a fraction of that achieved by irinotecan alone, while simultaneously promoting epithelial regeneration. These results indicate that targeted gut microbial enzyme inhibitors can improve cancer chemotherapeutic outcomes by protecting the gut epithelium from microbial dysbiosis and proliferative crypt damage.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

An Introduction to Word Embeddings and Language Models

Language models have advanced at a phenomenal pace over the past decade. This document provides a short introduction to terminology, word embeddings (aka low-dimensional representations), and popular large-scale language models (LMs). Word embeddings are used to represent words as numerical vectors and are context-independent, meaning a word can only have a single representation (e.g., club can only be club sandwich, not golf club ). Language models can determine the probability of a given sequence of words occurring in a sentence and can provide context to distinguish between words and phrases that sound similar. LMs are context-dependent (e.g., club can be club sandwich or golf club ) and largely fall in two main classes – autoregressive and autoencoding models. Autoregressive models are pretrained on the classic language modeling task: guess the next token having read all the previous ones. Those models can be fine-tuned and achieve great results on many tasks, the most natural application is text generation. A typical example of such models is GPT, but others include GPT-2, GPT-3, CTLR, TRANSFORMER-XL, REFORMER, XLNET. Autoencoding models are pretrained by corrupting the input tokens in some way and trying to reconstruct the original sentence. They can be fine-tuned and achieve great results on many tasks such as text generation, but their most natural application is sentence classification or token classification. A typical example of such models is BERT, but others include ROBERTA, ALBERT, XML, XML-ROBERTA, FLAUBERT AND LONGFORMER.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Simulations, Modeling and Data Analysis of Parity Violating Electron Scattering Experiments

In the Standard Model (SM) of nuclear and particle physics, parity violation is incorporated through the representation of the weak interaction as a chiral gauge interaction. Only the left-handed components of particles and right-handed components of antiparticles participate in weak interactions in the Standard Model. This implies that parity is asymmetric for the weak interaction. Parity violating electron scattering (PVES) experiments are designed to probe the physics parameters related to the SM, with the possibility to discover physics beyond the SM (BSM) by measuring the parity violating asymmetry ¿¿¿ of longitudinally polarized electrons scattered off unpolarized targets with high precision. This dissertation will be focused on two PVES experiments, the next 208Pb Lead Radius Experiment (PREX-II), and the Measurement of a Lepton-Lepton Electroweak Reaction (MOLLER) experiment, as well as in some small sections, the Calcium Radius Experiment (CREX) and P2 experiment which are also PVES experiments). PREX-II and CREX experiments, performed in Hall A at the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (Jefferson Lab), measured ¿¿¿ in the elastic scattering of longitudinally polarized electrons from 208Pb and 48Ca targets to provide a precise model independent determination of the neutron skin thickness of 208Pb and 48Ca nuclei, respectively. The MOLLER experiment, proposed to start in 2027 and also to be performed in Hall A at Jefferson Lab, is to measure ¿¿¿ of longitudinally polarized electrons scattered off unpolarized electrons (Møller scattering) to determine the weak charge of electrons ¿¿¿ and the weak mixing angle ¿¿ with high precision. As for the P2 experiment, which will be performed at the upcoming MESA accelerator in Mainz Germany, it is to measure the weak charge of proton ¿¿¿ using ¿¿¿ in the elastic electron-proton scattering of polarized electrons off unpolarized protons. The final results from the PREX-II experiment are presented as ¿¿¿=550±16 (¿¿¿¿)±8 (¿¿¿¿) parts-per-billion (ppb). Combining the PREX-I and PREX-II results, the neutron skin thickness from PREX experiments is determined as ¿¿-¿¿=0.283±0.071 ¿¿ in 208Pb. This thesis lists the software and computational contribution of the author to these PVES experiments, including writing scripts and software to help with the PREX-II/CREX experiments, analyzing data to provide useful information and systematic uncertainty for the PREX-II experiment, modeling and simulations for the MOLLER, and providing an alternative design of an electronic equipment for the P2 experiment.

Chen, Yufan↗

Simulations, Modeling and Data Analysis of Parity Violating Electron Scattering Experiments

In the Standard Model (SM) of nuclear and particle physics, parity violation is incorporated through the representation of the weak interaction as a chiral gauge interaction. Only the left-handed components of particles and right-handed components of antiparticles participate in weak interactions in the Standard Model. This implies that parity is asymmetric for the weak interaction. Parity violating electron scattering (PVES) experiments are designed to probe the physics parameters related to the SM, with the possibility to discover physics beyond the SM (BSM) by measuring the parity violating asymmetry ¿¿¿ of longitudinally polarized electrons scattered off unpolarized targets with high precision. This dissertation will be focused on two PVES experiments, the next 208Pb Lead Radius Experiment (PREX-II), and the Measurement of a Lepton-Lepton Electroweak Reaction (MOLLER) experiment, as well as in some small sections, the Calcium Radius Experiment (CREX) and P2 experiment which are also PVES experiments). PREX-II and CREX experiments, performed in Hall A at the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (Jefferson Lab), measured ¿¿¿ in the elastic scattering of longitudinally polarized electrons from 208Pb and 48Ca targets to provide a precise model independent determination of the neutron skin thickness of 208Pb and 48Ca nuclei, respectively. The MOLLER experiment, proposed to start in 2027 and also to be performed in Hall A at Jefferson Lab, is to measure ¿¿¿ of longitudinally polarized electrons scattered off unpolarized electrons (Møller scattering) to determine the weak charge of electrons ¿¿¿ and the weak mixing angle ¿¿ with high precision. As for the P2 experiment, which will be performed at the upcoming MESA accelerator in Mainz Germany, it is to measure the weak charge of proton ¿¿¿ using ¿¿¿ in the elastic electron-proton scattering of polarized electrons off unpolarized protons. The final results from the PREX-II experiment are presented as ¿¿¿=550±16 (¿¿¿¿)±8 (¿¿¿¿) parts-per-billion (ppb). Combining the PREX-I and PREX-II results, the neutron skin thickness from PREX experiments is determined as ¿¿-¿¿=0.283±0.071 ¿¿ in 208Pb. This thesis lists the software and computational contribution of the author to these PVES experiments, including writing scripts and software to help with the PREX-II/CREX experiments, analyzing data to provide useful information and systematic uncertainty for the PREX-II experiment, modeling and simulations for the MOLLER, and providing an alternative design of an electronic equipment for the P2 experiment.

Chen, Yufan↗

Evaluating E. coli genome‐scale metabolic model accuracy with high‐throughput mutant fitness data

Abstract The Escherichia coli genome‐scale metabolic model (GEM) is an exemplar systems biology model for the simulation of cellular metabolism. Experimental validation of model predictions is essential to pinpoint uncertainty and ensure continued development of accurate models. Here, we quantified the accuracy of four subsequent E. coli GEMs using published mutant fitness data across thousands of genes and 25 different carbon sources. This evaluation demonstrated the utility of the area under a precision–recall curve relative to alternative accuracy metrics. An analysis of errors in the latest (iML1515) model identified several vitamins/cofactors that are likely available to mutants despite being absent from the experimental growth medium and highlighted isoenzyme gene‐protein‐reaction mapping as a key source of inaccurate predictions. A machine learning approach further identified metabolic fluxes through hydrogen ion exchange and specific central metabolism branch points as important determinants of model accuracy. This work outlines improved practices for the assessment of GEM accuracy with high‐throughput mutant fitness data and highlights promising areas for future model refinement in E. coli and beyond.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Prognostic analysis of high-flow nasal cannula therapy and non-invasive ventilation in mild to moderate hypoxemia patients and construction of a machine learning model for 48-h intubation prediction—a retrospective analysis of the MIMIC database

Background This study aims to investigate the clinical outcome between high-flow nasal cannula (HFNC) and non-invasive ventilation (NIV) therapy in mild to moderate hypoxemic patients on the first ICU day and to develop a predictive model of 48-h intubation. Methods The study included adult patients from the MIMIC III and IV databases who first initiated HFNC or NIV therapy due to mild to moderate hypoxemia (100 < PaO2/FiO2 ≤ 300). The 48-h and 30-day intubation rates were compared using cross-sectional and survival analysis. Nine machine learning and six ensemble algorithms were deployed to construct the 48-h intubation predictive models, of which the optimal model was determined by its prediction accuracy. The top 10 risk and protective factors were identified using the Shapley interpretation algorithm. Result A total of 123,042 patients were screened, of which, 673 were from the MIMIC IV database for ventilation therapy comparison (HFNC n = 363, NIV n = 310) and 48-h intubation predictive model construction (training dataset n = 471, internal validation set n = 202) and 408 were from the MIMIC III database for external validation. The NIV group had a lower intubation rate (23.1% vs. 16.1%, p = 0.001), ICU 28-day mortality (18.5% vs. 11.6%, p = 0.014), and in-hospital mortality (19.6% vs. 11.9%, p = 0.007) compared to the HFNC group. Survival analysis showed that the total and 48-h intubation rates were not significantly different. The ensemble AdaBoost decision tree model (internal and external validation set AUROC 0.878, 0.726) had the best predictive accuracy performance. The model Shapley algorithm showed Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), acute physiology scores (APSIII), the minimum and maximum lactate value as risk factors for early failure and age, the maximum PaCO 2 and PH value, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), the minimum PaO 2 /FiO 2 ratio, and PaO 2 value as protective factors. Conclusion NIV was associated with lower intubation rate and ICU 28-day and in-hospital mortality. Further survival analysis reinforced that the effect of NIV on the intubation rate might partly be attributed to the other impact factors. The ensemble AdaBoost decision tree model may assist clinicians in making clinical decisions, and early organ function support to improve patients’ SOFA, APSIII, GCS, PaCO 2 , PaO 2 , PH, PaO 2 /FiO 2 ratio, and lactate values can reduce the early failure rate and improve patient prognosis.

Fu, Wei↗

Constraints on the Cosmic Expansion Rate at Redshift 2.3 from the Lyman- α Forest

We determine the product of the expansion rate and angular-diameter distance at redshift z =2.3 from the anisotropy of Lyman-α (Ly⁢α) forest correlations measured by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). Our result is the most precise from large-scale structure at z > 1. Using the flat Λ cold dark matter model we determine the matter density to be Ω m = 0.3⁢6$^{+0.03}_{–0.04}$ from Ly⁢α alone. This is a factor of 2 tighter than baryon acoustic oscillation results from the same data due to our use of a wide range of scales (25 < r < 180 ℎ –1 Mpc). Using a nucleosynthesis prior, we measure the Hubble constant to be H o = 63.2 ± 2.5 km/s/Mpc. In combination with other SDSS tracers, we find H o = 67.2 ± 0.9 km/s/Mpc and measure the dark energy equation-of-state parameter to be w = –0.90 ± 0.12. Our Letter opens a new avenue for constraining cosmology at high redshift.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗