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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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Crew Performance Support System to Aid in Anomaly Resolution: Concept of Operations

As missions progress into deep space, communication delays and disruptions will disenable the crew’s reliance on Earth experts. There are also limitations in the amount of data that can be downlinked to the ground. It is prudent to assume that critical, complex vehicle or habitat sub-systems will malfunction at a time when a lunar or Mars’ crew cannot rely on the Earth-Support team to detect, diagnose and resolve the problem and it is impractical to expect a small crew to step-in with the same level of expertise as 50+ authorities. The crew will need novel processes and advanced technological support to independently identify and resolve safety- and time-critical anomalies. That a self-reliant crew is unable to respond appropriately to time-critical anomalies is a significant risk to crew safety and mission success. This risk is driven by several factors; novel and unanticipated anomalies would not have been trained pre-flight, the crew could forget their pre-flight training or spaceflight stressors could impair the crew’s problem-solving ability. At last year’s IWS, Beard reported that a single spaceflight stressor (elevated CO2) could undermine the crew’s ability to independently respond to emergencies. Concept of Operations (ConOps) provide a common view of future system functions to all stakeholders. For the current project, a ConOps was developed that describes the operational processes, practices and capabilities needed by a crew of astronauts on deep space missions to autonomously respond to anticipated and unanticipated anomalies. It is crucial to recognize that, as of August 2018 existing technologies are unable to effectively support crew anomaly response to unanticipated events. “Intelligent technology” has not reached a maturity level that permits generalizing a solution to novel situations. For example, to train intelligent technology requires volumes of data that do not exist. The complexities involved in a manned mission to Mars cannot be compared to sending rovers to Mars using scripted software. This ConOps proposes a Crew Performance Support System (CPSS) that will push NASA and its industry partners toward what will be required for a safe and successful manned mission to Mars. Anomaly resolution during a deep space mission will take place within a dynamic, or changing, context. The figure to the left shows five broad contextual variables: the organizational culture, mission context, system characteristics, team characteristics and individual characteristics. The yellow arrow indicates that spaceflight and task-related stressors can affect system, team and individual crewmember characteristics and therefore anomaly response potential. The figure depicts a protective umbrella of Human-System Integration (HSI) principles that should be instituted during CPSS development including a balanced workload, shared situation awareness and building an appropriate level of trust in the automation. The figure also depicts two interrelated and cooperative components, an HSI Data System and other Enabling Capabilities will be required to support crew anomaly response and Earth-Support situation awareness. As we journey from ISS to Gateway to Mars, multiple, simultaneous and integrated research and development efforts (i.e., support systems co-evolution) must be implemented to meet the problem-solving challenges a self-reliant crew will face on a Mars’ mission. The crossovers between the capabilities are just as important as the discrete capabilities themselves. As the capabilities mature, the lines between the support subdomains will blur and an integrated system will emerge. The ConOps summarizes current knowledge about how highly trained people solve anomalies in safety- and time-critical situations, describes a group of capabilities that could help to reduce the extant risk and documents requirements levied on additional systems that provides critical inputs to the CPSS. Scenarios are used to promote a shared understanding of processes, practices and technological goals needed for safe and productive manned missions beyond LEO.

HSIA risk↗
NASA NTRS2017

Assessing Uncertainties in Gridded Emissions: A Case Study for Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide (FFCO2) Emission Data

Fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions (FFCO2) are the largest input to the global carbon cycle on a decadal time scale. Because total emissions are assumed to be reasonably well constrained by fuel statistics, FFCO2 often serves as a reference in order to deduce carbon uptake by poorly understood terrestrial and ocean sinks. Conventional atmospheric CO2 flux inversions solve for spatially explicit regional sources and sinks and estimate land and ocean fluxes by subtracting FFCO2. Thus, errors in FFCO2 can propagate into the final inferred flux estimates. Gridded emissions are often based on disaggregation of emissions estimated at national or regional level. Although national and regional total FFCO2 are well known, gridded emission fields are subject to additional uncertainties due to the emission disaggregation. Assessing such uncertainties is often challenging because of the lack of physical measurements for evaluation. We first review difficulties in assessing uncertainties associated with gridded FFCO2 emission data and present several approaches for evaluation of such uncertainties at multiple scales. Given known limitations, inter-emission data differences are often used as a proxy for the uncertainty. The popular approach allows us to characterize differences in emissions, but does not allow us to fully quantify emission disaggregation biases. Our work aims to vicariously evaluate FFCO2 emission data using atmospheric models and measurements. We show a global simulation experiment where uncertainty estimates are propagated as an atmospheric tracer (uncertainty tracer) alongside CO2 in NASA's GEOS model and discuss implications of FFCO2 uncertainties in the context of flux inversions. We also demonstrate the use of high resolution urban CO2 simulations as a tool for objectively evaluating FFCO2 data over intense emission regions. Though this study focuses on FFCO2 emission data, the outcome of this study could also help improve the knowledge of similar gridded emissions data for non-CO2 compounds with similar emission characteristics.

FFCO↗
DOE OSTI2017

Optimizing a Knowledge-driven Prospectivity Model for Gold Deposits Within Peräpohja Belt, Northern Finland

This paper combines knowledge- and data-driven prospectivity mapping approaches by using the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) spatial statistical technique to optimize the process of rescaling input datasets and the process of data integration when using a fuzzy logic prospectivity mapping method. The methodology is tested in an active mineral exploration terrain within the Paleoproterozoic Peräpohja Belt (PB) in the Northern Fennoscandian Shield, Finland. The PB comprises a greenschist to amphibolite facies, complexly deformed supracrustal sequence of variable quartzites, mafic volcanic rocks and volcaniclastic rocks, carbonate rocks, black shales, mica schists and graywackes. These formations were deposited on Archean basement and 2.44 Ga layered intrusions, during the multiple rifting of the Archean basement (2.44–1.92 Ga). Younger intrusive units in the PB comprise 2.20–2.13 Ga gabbroic sills or dikes and 1.98 Ga A-type granites. Metamorphism and complex deformation of the PB took place during the Svecofennian orogeny (1.9–1.8 Ga) and were followed by intrusions of post-orogenic granitoids (1.81–1.77 Ga). The recent mineral exploration activities have indicated several gold-bearing mineral occurrences within the PB. The Rompas Au-U mineralization is hosted within deformed and metamorphosed calc-silicate veins enclosed within mafic volcanic rocks and contains uranium-bearing zones without gold and very high-grade (>10,000 g/t Au) gold pockets with uraninite and uraninite-pyrobitumen nodules. In the vicinity of the Rompas, a magnesium skarn hosted disseminated-stockwork gold mineralization was also recognized at the Palokas-Rajapalot prospect. The exploration criteria translated into a fuzzy logic prospectivity model included data derived from regional till geochemistry (Fe, Cu, Co, Ni, Au, Te, K), high-resolution airborne geophysics (magnetic field total intensity, electromagnetic, gamma radiation), ground gravity and regional bedrock map (structures). The current exploration licenses and exploration drilling sites for gold were used to validate the knowledge-driven mineral prospectivity model.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS2014

LADEE Multi-Domain Simulation

The Lunar Atmosphere Dust Environment Explorer (LADEE) was a small explorer class spacecraft that was launched on Sept 7, 2013 and that was de-orbited and successfully impacted the Moons surface on April 17, 2014 after completing all of the mission objectives. The low-cost rapidly prototyped hardware design used for the spacecraft was extend to the development of the software base. To achieve this goal, a Model Based Design approach was utilized to develop the onboard flight software, and out of this development a model based multipurpose simulator was created of the LADEE spacecraft and its mission environment. This simulator extended the traditional function of propagating the vehicle's kinematic and rotational states and included the electrical and thermal states propagation. Traditionally, these domains are handled by domain specific high fidelity simulations that use the states histories from other domains as input. By reducing the fidelity and abstracting the relevant features being monitored and controlled by the flight software, it was possible to model the coupling across these domains resulting in more accurate overall system behavior. A faster than real-time workstation (WSIM) version of the LADEE simulator was used to develop and test the software control algorithms in the Simulink environment. To maximize the performance of the simulation, modeling knobs were introduced to reduce the resolution of the some of the domains models when the effects of that domain were not significant for the scope of that simulation. The automatic code generation feature in Simulink was used to port the simulation to several real-time environments to support Processor-in-the-Loop (PIL) and Hardware-in-the-Loop (HIL) testing, verification and validation. The real-time environment required that the design of each of the domain models be deterministic as possible in the time required to perform all of the calculations to update its states. The simulation interface was designed to be compatible with the command interface employed by the LADEE mission operation team. The WSIM, PIL, and HIL simulators thus used a common interface and thus were used for flight software testing, for mission operations personnel training (nominal and off-nominal operations) prior to the mission and to perform command sequence verification during the mission. This presentation will look at the modeling strategies used to create a common interface to the simulator and to model and couple multiple domains within the simulation, the results of those strategies, and the lessons learned.

Multi-Domain↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterizing natural fractures and sub-seismic faults for well completion of Marcellus shale in the MSEEL Consortium project, West Virginia, USA

The Middle Devonian Marcellus shale play has emerged as a major world-class hydrocarbon accumulation and represents one of the largest and most prolific shale plays in the world. According to many outcrop studies in the region, natural fractures are well developed in the Marcellus Shale. However, evaluating fractures in the subsurface is often a significant challenge due to a lack of sufficient data. Therefore, in the Marcellus Shale Energy and Environment Laboratory (MSEEL) consortium project, significant efforts have been made to acquire high-quality image logs in the Marcellus laterals. The project provided tremendous opportunities to characterize the natural fractures and sub-seismic faults and to evaluate their impact on well stimulation. In this study, about 70,000 ft of acquired high-resolution logging while drilling (LWD) acoustic images from five long laterals located in Monongalia County, West Virginia, were processed and interpreted. In addition, the study used high-quality micro-resistivity images from a pilot well, allowing the evaluation of natural fractures in the entire Marcellus vertical sequence. Based on the available acoustic images, the natural fractures were classified into three basic categories: high-amplitude fractures, low-amplitude fractures, and faults. Further, larger open fractures can also be determined when a low-amplitude fracture is evident on caliper images. The fractures in the Marcellus usually have a medium to high angle dip; however, multiple fracture sets in terms of strike orientation were clearly observed in all the laterals. The fracture set with a strike at NE-SW (or 60-240 deg) seems to be the predominant one in all the wells. A few other sets, including those with N-S, NWW-SEE, and E-W strikes, were also observed. Several sub-seismic faults, with mostly a low dip angle and a NE-SW strike, have also been seen in two of the laterals. The fracture density is variable across all the laterals, ranging from very low (or none) to very high (up to 5 fractures per ft). The average fracture density for all the laterals is about 1 fracture per 10 ft. In the vertical sequence, the natural fracture development showed a clear preference for shale or shaly facies over carbonate-rich or thin limestone layers. The interpreted fracture and fault data were used as input data for the stimulation design with the purpose of better understanding the fractures’ impact on well stimulation. Production data from the laterals were also used to evaluate the natural fractures’ influence on well performance. The quality image database and the consistent interpretation results for the entire project enabled a systematic approach to characterizing fractures and, more importantly, to evaluating the impact of fractures on well stimulation and production.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Forest aboveground biomass estimation through integration of sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 time series: assessing models trained on GEDI and field inventory benchmarks

Accurate and spatially explicit forest Aboveground Biomass (AGB) mapping through remote sensing is critical for quantifying terrestrial carbon stocks and informing effective forest management strategies. However, AGB estimation in dense forests with complex terrain remains challenging due to satellite sensor signal saturation problem (saturation issue occurs in high biomass forests), structural complexity, and limited ground truth for calibration. This study presents a novel framework that integrates multi-temporal Sentinel-2 optical imagery, ALOS PALSAR-2 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data, and topographic variables with explainable Machine Learning to map AGB across mountainous forests within subtropical and temperate oceanic climate zones of Mexico. We evaluate the effects of temporal granularity and sensor synergy by comparing multiple temporal inputs and sensor configurations (Sentinel-2, PALSAR-2, and their fusion), and assess model performance using two reference datasets: NASA GEDI LiDAR-derived biomass and Mexico’s National Forest and Soil Inventory (INFyS). Our results showed that models trained on INFyS consistently outperformed those trained on GEDI, highlighting limitations in GEDI’s reliability in biomass estimates within this study region. Furthermore, the integration of Sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 provided improved predictions compared to single-sensor models, particularly when combined with temporally explicit yearly statistics. The best-performing model, which was trained on INFyS data, and considered both Sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 yearly statistics, as well as topographic variables, achieved an R2 of 0.64, RMSE of 51.10 Mg/ha, and relative RMSE (rRMSE) of 58.69%. Explainable ML analysis identified Sentinel-2 spectral indices and topographic features as key predictors, while PALSAR-2 metrics provided complementary information, partially mitigating saturation effects in high-biomass areas. Specifically, integrating both sensors substantially improved AGB estimation in high biomass forest (≥200 Mg/ha), yielding 98% gains over optical-only model, with resulting estimates exceeding GEDI L4B by 29% and ESA-CCI-BIOMASS by 174%. Terrain-stratified analysis indicated close agreement with GEDI in low-slope areas, with increasing divergence as slope steepness increased, while estimates remained consistently higher than ESA-CCI-BIOMASS across all slope classes. The proposed approach advances multi-sensor fusion and temporal feature engineering for AGB mapping using open-access satellite datasets, providing a scalable and reproducible framework for annual biomass monitoring in topographically complex mountainous forests. The resulting 25 m resolution biomass product has the potential to provide spatially detailed information for forest monitoring and may support applications in carbon accounting and forest management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating the potential for bird‐habitat models to support biodiversity‐friendly urban planning

Abstract Urban expansion poses a major threat to wildlife populations. Biodiversity‐friendly urban landscapes could deliver benefits for both wildlife and people, by incorporating conservation and ecosystem services objectives. Well‐designed urban developments could also soften the ecological impacts of urbanization. However, delivering urban landscapes that integrate biodiversity requirements effectively remains challenging. Ecological models, designed to predict wildlife population responses to alternative urban designs, could prove effective in supporting the creation of biodiversity‐friendly urban landscapes. Here, we combine national‐scale bird abundance data with high resolution, spatially explicit habitat data to characterize relationships between bird densities and urban landscape form in Britain. From these analyses and cross validation, we evaluate the potential for well‐parameterized, species‐specific models to be used to predict bird densities in novel or modified urban areas. Our analyses indicate that responses of bird abundance to urban habitat are species‐specific and complex, with few variables consistently affecting a large proportion of species. However, contiguous areas of greenspace within urban sites are preferential for accommodating breeding birds, compared to a more fragmented arrangement of multiple, small greenspace patches. In combination, the bird‐habitat relationships identified could successfully predict observed variation in abundance for most bird species considered. Further evaluation of habitat descriptor variables, spatial scales of species' habitat use and analytical modelling approaches may be needed to improve the predictive ability of bird‐habitat models for certain species, particularly waterbirds and those observed less frequently in urban areas. Synthesis and applications . We modelled breeding bird abundance in built‐up areas with respect to the characteristics and contexts of urban environments. While most variables were important for multiple species, responses overall were species‐specific, so simple assemblage metrics, like diversity, will not describe the variation in bird communities well. However, the results illustrate the potential of an evidence‐based, spatially explicit evaluation of urban development impacts on biodiversity, by predicting the consequences for bird numbers. Subject to verification of predictive ability, practitioners can apply the models to compare, for example, land‐sparing and sharing within developments, or to quantify the biodiversity requirements for effective offsetting. This would be facilitated by incorporation into an online tool allowing user‐determined input scenarios.

Plummer, Kate E.↗
DOE OSTI2014

Utilization of the St. Peter Sandstone in the Illinois Basin for CO2 Sequestration

This project is part of a larger project co-funded by the United States Department of Energy (US DOE) under cooperative agreement DE-FE0002068 from 12/08/2009 through 9/31/2014. The study is to evaluate the potential of formations within the Cambro-Ordovician strata above the Mt. Simon Sandstone as potential targets for carbon dioxide (CO2) sequestration in the Illinois and Michigan Basins. This report evaluates the potential injectivity of the Ordovician St. Peter Sandstone. The evaluation of this formation was accomplished using wireline data, core data, pressure data, and seismic data acquired through funding in this project as well as existing data from two additional, separately funded projects: the US DOE funded Illinois Basin – Decatur Project (IBDP) being conducted by the Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium (MGSC) in Macon County, Illinois, and the Illinois Industrial Carbon Capture and Sequestration (ICCS) Project funded through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA), which received a phase two award from DOE. This study addresses the question of whether or not the St. Peter Sandstone may serve as a suitable target for CO2 sequestration at locations within the Illinois Basin where it lies at greater depths (below the underground source of drinking water (USDW)) than at the IBDP site. The work performed included numerous improvements to the existing St. Peter reservoir model created in 2010. Model size and spatial resolution were increased resulting in a 3 fold increase in the number of model cells. Seismic data was utilized to inform spatial porosity distribution and an extensive core database was used to develop porosity-permeability relationships. The analysis involved a Base Model representative of the St. Peter at “in-situ” conditions, followed by the creation of two hypothetical models at in-situ + 1,000 feet (ft.) (300 m) and in-situ + 2,000 ft. (600 m) depths through systematic depthdependent adjustment of the Base Model parameters. Properties for the depth shifted models were based on porosity versus depth relationship extracted from the core database followed by application of the porosity-permeability relationship. Each of the three resulting models were used as input to dynamic simulations with the single well injection target of 3.2 million tons per annum (MTPA) for 30 years using an appropriate fracture gradient based bottom hole pressure limit for each injection level. Modeling results are presented in terms of well bottomhole pressure (BHP), injection rate profiles, and three-dimensional (3D) saturation and differential pressure volumes at selected simulation times. Results suggest that the target CO2 injection rate of 3.2 MTPA may be achieved in the St. Peter Sandstone at in-situ conditions and at the in-situ +1,000 ft. (300 m) depth using a single injector well. In the latter case the target injection rate is achieved after a ramp up period which is caused by multi-phase flow effects and thus subject to increased modeling uncertainty. Results confirm that the target rate may not be achieved at the in-situ +2,000 ft. (600 m) level even with multiple wells. These new modeling results for the in-situ case are more optimistic than previous modeling results. This difference is attributed to the difference in methods and data used to develop model permeability distributions. Recommendations for further work include restriction of modeling activity to the in-situ +1,000 ft. (300 m) and shallower depth interval, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, and refinement of porosity and permeability estimates through depth and area selective querying of the available core database. It is also suggested that further modeling efforts include scope for evaluating project performance in terms of metrics directly related to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Class VI permit requirements for the area of review (AoR) definition and post injection site closure monitoring.

Will, Robert↗
DOE OSTI2017

High-Resolution Characterization of Comingled Contaminants in the Deep Vadose Zone, Hanford Site, Washington - 17387

The contaminated deep vadose zone in the Central Plateau of the Hanford Site in Washington state presents a unique challenge to remediation. The Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act, commonly known as the CERCLA project responsible for addressing these deep contaminants is designated as the 200-Deep Vadose Zone Operable Unit (DV-1 project). The vadose zone is 55-82 meters (180-270 feet) thick and is contaminated with both radiological and chemical contaminants from multiple historical waste streams. The mobile contaminants from this waste are still present in the deep vadose zone and pose a potential threat to the groundwater. Characterizing the nature and extent of the comingled mobile contaminants is an important step before assessing possible remedial alternatives. One factor controlling the migration and distribution of subsurface contaminants is the lithologic heterogeneity of the vadose zone sediments. A sampling plan for the DV-1 project includes continuous sediment core collection and analysis to identify key lithologic factors (i.e., small-scale bedding and structural features) that act as barriers, preferential pathways or conduits for mobile contaminants migrating through the vadose zone. Over six hundred meters (2,000 feet) of intact sediment core from 26 boreholes were collected in 1.5 meters (5 feet) long, 10 centimeter (4-inch) diameter segments. These intact sediment samples provide significant improvement in the level of detail and understanding of mechanisms and features controlling contaminant distribution that is not possible with traditional homogenized drill cuttings or conventional split-spoon samples. Detailed geological descriptions and photographs of the intact core are correlated to high-resolution geophysical logs which aid in the development of a comprehensive contaminant distribution profile of the borehole. These lithologic interpretations are used to define specific depth intervals for sampling based on changes in moisture, lithology, and elevated gamma radiation. The selected samples are analyzed for contaminants of concern, geochemical parameters, and hydraulic properties. Significant lithologic features observed in the intact cores include sharp contact boundaries to graded bedding, iron-oxide and carbonate cementation, silty laminations, clastic dike intrusions, and soft sediment deformation. Preliminary geologic logs integrated with the sample analysis indicate features that correlate to the variable distribution of contaminants both laterally and vertically. Integration of measured hydraulic parameters to lithologic units in individual borehole profiles provide key inputs for more precise geo-framework and vadose zone flux models supporting the DV-1 project. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2016

Active Interrogation using Photofission Technique for Nuclear Materials Control and Accountability

Innovative systems with increased sensitivity and resolution are in great demand to detect diversion and to prevent misuse in support of nuclear materials management for the U.S. fuel cycle. Nuclear fission is the most important multiplicative process involved in non-destructive active interrogation. This process produces the most easily recognizable signature for nuclear materials. In addition to thermal or high-energy neutrons, high-energy gamma rays can also excite a nucleus and cause fission through a process known as photofission. Electron linear accelerators (linacs) are widely used as the interrogating photon sources for inspection methods involving photofission technique. After photofission reactions, prompt signals are much stronger than the delayed signals, but it is difficult to quantify them in practical measurements. Delayed signals are easily distinguishable from the interrogating radiation. Linac-based, advanced inspection techniques utilizing the delayed signals after photofission have been extensively studied for homeland security applications. Previous research also showed that a unique delayed gamma ray energy spectrum exists for each fissionable isotope. In this work, high-energy delayed γ-rays were demonstrated to be signatures for detection, identification, and quantification of special nuclear materials. Such γ-rays were measured in between linac pulses using independent data acquisition systems. A list-mode system was developed to measure low-energy delayed γ-rays after irradiation. Photofission product yields of 238 U and 239 Pu were determined based on the measured delayed γ-ray spectra. The differential yields of delayed γ-rays were also proven to be able to discriminate nuclear from non-nuclear materials. The measurement outcomes were compared with Monte Carlo simulation results. It was demonstrated that the current available codes have capabilities and limitations in the simulation of photofission process. A two-fold approach was used to address the high-rate challenge in used nuclear fuel assay based on photofission technique. First, a standard HPGe preamplifier was modified to improve its capabilities in high-rate pulsed photofission environment. Second, advanced pulse processing algorithms were shown to greatly improve throughput rate without large sacrifice in energy resolution at ultra-high input count rate. Two customized gamma spectroscopy systems were also developed in real-time on FPGAs. They were shown to have promising performance matching available commercial units.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS2017

Daily Ambient Air Pollution Metrics for Five Cities: Evaluation of Data Fusion-Based Estimates and Uncertainties

Spatiotemporal characterization of ambient air pollutant concentrations is increasingly relying on the combination of observations and air quality models to provide well-constrained, spatially and temporally complete pollutant concentration fields. Air quality models, in particular, are attractive, as they characterize the emissions, meteorological, and physiochemical process linkages explicitly while providing continuous spatial structure. However, such modeling is computationally intensive and has biases. The limitations of spatially sparse and temporally incomplete observations can be overcome by blending the data with estimates from a physically and chemically coherent model, driven by emissions and meteorological inputs. We recently developed a data fusion method that blends ambient ground observations and chemical transport-modeled (CTM) data to estimate daily, spatially resolved pollutant concentrations and associatedcorrelations. In this study, we assess the ability of the data fusion method to produce daily metrics (i.e., 1-hr max, 8-hr max, and 24-hr average) of ambient air pollution that capture spatiotemporal air pollution trends for 12 pollutants (CO, NO2, NOx, O3, SO2, PM (sub10), PM (sub 2.5), and five PM (sub 2.5) components) across five metropolitan areas (Atlanta, Birmingham, Dallas, Pittsburgh, and St. Louis), from 2002 to 2008. Three sets of comparisons are performed: (1) the CTM concentrations are evaluated for each pollutant and metropolitan domain, (2) the data fusion concentrations are compared with the monitor data, (3) a comprehensive cross-validation analysis against observed data evaluates the quality of the data fusion model simulations across multiple metropolitan domains. The resulting daily spatial field estimates of air pollutant concentrations and uncertainties are not only consistent with observations, emissions, andmeteorology, but substantially improve CTM-derived results for nearly all pollutants and all cities, with the exception of NO2 for Birmingham. The greatest improvements occur for O3 and PM (sub 2.5). Squared spatiotemporal correlation coefficients range between simulations and observations determined using cross-validation across all cities for air pollutants of secondary and mixed origins are R-squared equal to 0.88-0.93 (O3), 0.81-0.89 (SO4), 0.67-0.83 (PM (sub 2.5)), 0.52-0.72 (NO3), 0.43-0.80 (NH4), 0.32-0.51 (OC), and 0.14-0.71 (PM (sub 10)). Results for relatively homogeneous pollutants of secondary origin, tend to be better than those for more spatially heterogeneous (larger spatial gradients) pollutants of primary origin (NOx, CO, SO2 and EC). Generally, background concentrations and spatial concentration gradients reflect interurban airshed complexity and the effects of regional transport, whereas daily spatial pattern variability shows intra urban consistency in the fused data. With sufficiently high CTM spatial resolution, traffic-related pollutants exhibit gradual concentration gradients that peak toward the urban centers. Ambient pollutant concentration uncertainty estimates for the fused data are both more accurate and smaller than those for either the observations or the model simulations alone.

spatiotemporal fusion↗
NASA NTRS2022

Cloud Mask Intercomparison eXercise (CMIX): An evaluation of cloud masking algorithms for Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2

Cloud cover is a major limiting factor in exploiting time-series data acquired by optical spaceborne remote sensing sensors. Multiple methods have been developed to address the problem of cloud detection in satellite imagery and a number of cloud masking algorithms have been developed for optical sensors but very few studies have carried out quantitative intercomparison of state-of-the-art methods in this domain. This paper summarizes results of the first Cloud Masking Intercomparison eXercise (CMIX) conducted within the Committee Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) Working Group on Calibration & Validation (WGCV). CEOS is the forum for space agency coordination and cooperation on Earth observations, with activities organized under working groups. CMIX, as one such activity, is an international collaborative effort aimed at intercomparing cloud detection algorithms for moderate-spatial resolution (10–30 m) spaceborne optical sensors. The focus of CMIX is on open and free imagery acquired by the Landsat 8 (NASA/USGS) and Sentinel-2 (ESA) missions. Ten algorithms developed by nine teams from fourteen different organizations representing universities, research centers and industry, as well as space agencies (CNES, ESA, DLR, and NASA), are evaluated within the CMIX. Those algorithms vary in their approach and concepts utilized which were based on various spectral properties, spatial and temporal features, as well as machine learning methods. Algorithm outputs are evaluated against existing reference cloud mask datasets. Those datasets vary in sampling methods, geographical distribution, sample unit (points, polygons, full image labels), and generation approaches (experts, machine learning, sky images). Overall, the performance of algorithms varied depending on the reference dataset, which can be attributed to differences in how the reference datasets were produced. The algorithms were in good agreement for thick cloud detection, which were opaque and had lower uncertainties in their identification, in contrast to thin/semi-transparent clouds detection. Not only did CMIX allow identification of strengths and weaknesses of existing algorithms and potential areas of improvements, but also the problems associated with the existing reference datasets. The paper concludes with recommendations on generating new reference datasets, metrics, and an analysis framework to be further exploited and additional input datasets to be considered by future CMIX activities.

Sergii Skakun↗
NASA NTRS2013

Urban Image Classification: Per-Pixel Classifiers, Sub-Pixel Analysis, Object-Based Image Analysis, and Geospatial Methods: Chapter - 10

Remote sensing methods used to generate base maps to analyze the urban environment rely predominantly on digital sensor data from space-borne platforms. This is due in part from new sources of high spatial resolution data covering the globe, a variety of multispectral and multitemporal sources, sophisticated statistical and geospatial methods, and compatibility with GIS data sources and methods. The goal of this chapter is to review the four groups of classification methods for digital sensor data from space-borne platforms; per-pixel, sub-pixel, object-based (spatial-based), and geospatial methods. Per-pixel methods are widely used methods that classify pixels into distinct categories based solely on the spectral and ancillary information within that pixel. They are used for simple calculations of environmental indices (e.g., NDVI) to sophisticated expert systems to assign urban land covers. Researchers recognize however, that even with the smallest pixel size the spectral information within a pixel is really a combination of multiple urban surfaces. Sub-pixel classification methods therefore aim to statistically quantify the mixture of surfaces to improve overall classification accuracy. While within pixel variations exist, there is also significant evidence that groups of nearby pixels have similar spectral information and therefore belong to the same classification category. Object-oriented methods have emerged that group pixels prior to classification based on spectral similarity and spatial proximity. Classification accuracy using object-based methods show significant success and promise for numerous urban 3 applications. Like the object-oriented methods that recognize the importance of spatial proximity, geospatial methods for urban mapping also utilize neighboring pixels in the classification process. The primary difference though is that geostatistical methods (e.g., spatial autocorrelation methods) are utilized during both the pre- and post-classification steps. Within this chapter, each of the four approaches is described in terms of scale and accuracy classifying urban land use and urban land cover; and for its range of urban applications. We demonstrate the overview of four main classification groups in Figure 1 while Table 1 details the approaches with respect to classification requirements and procedures (e.g., reflectance conversion, steps before training sample selection, training samples, spatial approaches commonly used, classifiers, primary inputs for classification, output structures, number of output layers, and accuracy assessment). The chapter concludes with a brief summary of the methods reviewed and the challenges that remain in developing new classification methods for improving the efficiency and accuracy of mapping urban areas.

Myint, Soe W.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Imaging the End-to-End Dynamics of the Global Solar Wind-Magnetosphere Interaction

Much of what we know about the solar wind’s interaction with the Earth’s magnetosphere has been gained from isolated in situ measurements by single or multiple spacecraft. Based on their observations, we know that reconnection, whether on the dayside magnetopause or deep within the Earth’s magnetotail, controls the flow of solar wind energy into and through the global system. We know that nightside activity provides the energized particles that power geomagnetic storms. But by their very nature these isolated in situ measurements cannot provide an instantaneous global view of the entire system or its cross-scale dynamics. As a result, we don’t know which mode of reconnection prevails on the dayside magnetopause or within the magnetotail as a function of solar wind and geomagnetic conditions. We don’t know which mode or modes of nightside activity supply the most energized particles to the ring current. Nor do we know the dominant loss mode for ring current decay: precipitation, magnetopause outflow, or charge exchange with neutrals. Nor do we know how processes deep within the magnetosphere provide feedback to those happening in the outer magnetosphere. The answers to these questions could have an impact far beyond magnetospheric physics, since magnetic reconnection, particle acceleration, and charge-exchange are fundamental plasma processes that operate at other planets and throughout the universe. Comprehensive end-to-end global imaging of the key micro, meso-, and macro-scale plasma structures that comprise the magnetosphere will provide the answers to these questions via observations with a spatial resolution that exceeds anything possible with in situ measurements. Each proposed interaction mechanism generates a diagnostic plasma structure or boundary signature. Global, end-to-end, imaging provides the pathway to understanding the system as a whole, its constituent parts, and its cross-scale processes on a continuous basis, as needed to quantify the flow of solar wind energy through the global magnetospheric system. The significance of each mechanism is the product of its amplitude and occurrence rate. This white paper describes how a comprehensively-instrumented single spacecraft in a high-latitude circular polar orbit can provide the essential observations needed to track and quantify the flow of solar wind energy through the magnetosphere, including the solar wind plasma and magnetic field input, the magnetopause location in soft X-rays, the auroral oval in far ultraviolet, the ring current in energetic neutrals, the plasmasphere in extreme ultraviolet, the exosphere in Lyman-, the microstructure of the nightside auroral oval in ground-based all sky cameras, and the magnetic perturbations of ionospheric current patterns seen by ground-based magnetometers.

D G Sibeck↗
NASA NTRS1994

Quantitative 3-D imaging topogrammetry for telemedicine applications

The technology to reliably transmit high-resolution visual imagery over short to medium distances in real time has led to the serious considerations of the use of telemedicine, telepresence, and telerobotics in the delivery of health care. These concepts may involve, and evolve toward: consultation from remote expert teaching centers; diagnosis; triage; real-time remote advice to the surgeon; and real-time remote surgical instrument manipulation (telerobotics with virtual reality). Further extrapolation leads to teledesign and telereplication of spare surgical parts through quantitative teleimaging of 3-D surfaces tied to CAD/CAM devices and an artificially intelligent archival data base of 'normal' shapes. The ability to generate 'topogrames' or 3-D surface numerical tables of coordinate values capable of creating computer-generated virtual holographic-like displays, machine part replication, and statistical diagnostic shape assessment is critical to the progression of telemedicine. Any virtual reality simulation will remain in 'video-game' realm until realistic dimensional and spatial relational inputs from real measurements in vivo during surgeries are added to an ever-growing statistical data archive. The challenges of managing and interpreting this 3-D data base, which would include radiographic and surface quantitative data, are considerable. As technology drives toward dynamic and continuous 3-D surface measurements, presenting millions of X, Y, Z data points per second of flexing, stretching, moving human organs, the knowledge base and interpretive capabilities of 'brilliant robots' to work as a surgeon's tireless assistants becomes imaginable. The brilliant robot would 'see' what the surgeon sees--and more, for the robot could quantify its 3-D sensing and would 'see' in a wider spectral range than humans, and could zoom its 'eyes' from the macro world to long-distance microscopy. Unerring robot hands could rapidly perform machine-aided suturing with precision micro-sewing machines, splice neural connections with laser welds, micro-bore through constricted vessels, and computer combine ultrasound, microradiography, and 3-D mini-borescopes to quickly assess and trace vascular problems in situ. The spatial relationships between organs, robotic arms, and end-effector diagnostic, manipulative, and surgical instruments would be constantly monitored by the robot 'brain' using inputs from its multiple 3-D quantitative 'eyes' remote sensing, as well as by contact and proximity force measuring devices. Methods to create accurate and quantitative 3-D topograms at continuous video data rates are described.

Altschuler, Bruce R.↗
DOE OSTI2020

The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500

Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are the main driver of current and future climate change. The integrated assessment community has quantified anthropogenic emissions for the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios, each of which represents a different future socio-economic projection and political environment. Here, we provide the greenhouse gas concentrations for these SSP scenarios using the reduced-complexity climate–carbon-cycle model MAGICC7.0. We extend historical, observationally based concentration data with SSP concentration projections from 2015 to 2500 for 43 greenhouse gases with monthly and latitudinal resolution. CO 2 concentrations by 2100 range from 393 to 1135 ppm for the lowest (SSP1-1.9) and highest (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios, respectively. We also provide the concentration extensions beyond 2100 based on assumptions regarding the trajectories of fossil fuels and land use change emissions, net negative emissions, and the fraction of non-CO 2 emissions. By 2150, CO 2 concentrations in the lowest emission scenario are approximately 350 ppm and approximately plateau at that level until 2500, whereas the highest fossil-fuel-driven scenario projects CO 2 concentrations of 1737 ppm and reaches concentrations beyond 2000 ppm by 2250. We estimate that the share of CO 2 in the total radiative forcing contribution of all considered 43 long-lived greenhouse gases increases from 66% for the present day to roughly 68% to 85% by the time of maximum forcing in the 21st century. For this estimation, we updated simple radiative forcing parameterizations that reflect the Oslo Line-By-Line model results. In comparison to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs), the five main SSPs (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) are more evenly spaced and extend to lower 2100 radiative forcing and temperatures. Performing two pairs of six-member historical ensembles with CESM1.2.2, we estimate the effect on surface air temperatures of applying latitudinally and seasonally resolved GHG concentrations. We find that the ensemble differences in the March–April–May (MAM) season provide a regional warming in higher northern latitudes of up to 0.4 K over the historical period, latitudinally averaged of about 0.1 K, which we estimate to be comparable to the upper bound (~5 % level) of natural variability. In comparison to the comparatively straight line of the last 2000 years, the greenhouse gas concentrations since the onset of the industrial period and this studies' projections over the next 100 to 500 years unequivocally depict a “hockey-stick” upwards shape. The SSP concentration time series derived in this study provide a harmonized set of input assumptions for long-term climate science analysis; they also provide an indication of the wide set of futures that societal developments and policy implementations can lead to – ranging from multiple degrees of future warming on the one side to approximately 1.5°C warming on the other.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Quantifying Rates of Erosion Using Historical Aerial Photos - 19478

Erosion can play an important role in the fate and transport of waste at sites where disposal of long-lived waste is anticipated. The statistical characterization of key processes related to erosion is essential to the understanding of site stability through time. In this work multi-temporal historical aerial images are analyzed in conjunction with orthophotography and Lidar data to develop probability distributions for variables representing important erosion processes. Scans of photographic negatives were obtained for multiple photographs and several negatives were scanned with a calibrated photogrammetric scanner by Geomni (formerly Blue Skies Consulting) in Belen, New Mexico. Other negatives were provided by USDA or scanned on a high-resolution, large format media scanner in the United States National Archives Cartographic Research Room, College Park, Maryland (1939). An additional set of aerial photographs was obtained from the USGS EROS Data Center web site. For other years, photographic prints were available for aerial photography. Several prints were scanned with a large-format media scanner at 1200 dpi. Ground control points for selected digital images used in the stereoscopic analyses were identified in ArcMap. Ground control points were collected by matching features which could be identified in the aerial photography as well as the orthophotography or shaded relief imagery from the Lidar dataset. Such features included fence line intersections, road intersections, railroad bridges, and structures, depending on the age of the photography. Many old fence lines and abandoned roads remained visible in the shaded relief imagery while they were completely obscured by tree canopy in modern photography. Ground control elevations were sampled from the Lidar-based DEM or directly from point clouds. The image coordinates and matching three-dimensional projected coordinates of the ground control points were exported to IDL where parameters for a three-dimensional direct linear transformation (DLT) were obtained. Built-in singular value decomposition routines were used to solve an overdetermined set of equations for the eleven parameters of the DLT for a particular historical photograph. A solution to the DLT parameters was obtained for each historical aerial photograph in which features of interest were identified using the stereoscope. Ultimately, this process resulted in the identification of locations for features like gully heads using both the Lidar dataset and projection of the estimated location from the historical aerial photo under consideration back to the Lidar dataset. The distance between the estimate of the location from the historical image and that of the Lidar dataset was the estimated distance the feature has moved. This distance was then divided by the number of years between the Lidar dataset and the year of the historical aerial image of interest to get a rate of movement through time. This was done for several dozen points on each historical aerial image. There was inevitable uncertainty associated with the estimation of points from the historical aerial imagery. This includes estimation of changes in locations of features like gully heads through time. In this work a method to estimate the uncertainty associated with measurements of locations of features using the stereoscopic analysis is developed and applied. For features with locations in space that do not change (e.g., road intersections, etc.) the difference in measurements of locations from the Lidar dataset and that of the estimate from the historical aerial image provides an observation of the measurement error. These points used to estimate the measurement error are referred to as control points. For each of the historical aerial images, a different measurement error distribution is estimated using control points. These measurement errors are combined with the estimated distances from the stereoscopic analyses to produce distributions of gully retreat rates and hillslope erosion rates used along with output from Erosion Working Group (EWG) Landscape Evolution Models (LEMs) to provide statistical probability distributions for input into the PPA Model. Specifically, gully head retreat rate and gully widening rate were characterized using statistical probability distributions. The central limit theorem was then applied to develop rates that represent long-term averages that are used to inform a PPA Model built in GoldSim. The importance of these rates with respect to characterization of future risk can then assessed using sensitivity analyses. This provides an approach to determine if subsequent reduction of the uncertainty associated with the probability distributions of erosion rates will correspond to meaningful reduction in the estimation of future risk from the site. Ultimately this is a general method that utilizes historical aerial imagery to estimate rates of erosion with uncertainty. This information can be used to inform PPA models to project future risks from a given site. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS2020

Low-level liquid cloud properties during ORACLES retrieved using airborne polarimetric measurements and a neural network algorithm

In this study we developed a neural network (NN) that can be used to retrieve cloud microphysical properties from multiangular and multispectral polarimetric remote sensing observations. This effort builds upon our previous work, which explored the sensitivity of neural network input, architecture, and other design requirements for this type of remote sensing problem. In particular this work introduces a framework for appropriately weighting total and polarized reflectances, which have vastly different magnitudes and measurement uncertainties. The NN is trained using an artificial training set and applied to research scanning polarimeter (RSP) data obtained during the ORACLES field campaign (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS). The polarimetric RSP observations are unique in that they observe the same cloud from a very large number of angles within a variety of spectral bands, resulting in a large dataset that can be explored rapidly with a NN approach. The usefulness of applying a NN to a dataset such as this one stems from the possibility of rapidly obtaining a retrieval that could be subsequently applied as a first guess for slower but more rigorous physical-based retrieval algorithms. This approach could be particularly advantageous for more complicated atmospheric retrievals – such as when an aerosol layer lies above clouds like in ORACLES. For RSP observations obtained during ORACLES 2016, comparisons between the NN and standard parametric polarimetric (PP) cloud retrieval give reasonable results for droplet effective radius (r(e): R=0.756, RMSE=1.74 µm) and cloud optical thickness (τ: R=0.950, RMSE=1.82). This level of statistical agreement is shown to be similar to comparisons between the two most well-established cloud retrievals, namely, the polarimetric and the bispectral total reflectance cloud retrievals. The NN retrievals from the ORACLES 2017 dataset result in retrievals of r(e) (R=0.54, RMSE=4.77 µm) and τ (R=0.785, RMSE=5.61) that behave much more poorly. In particular we found that our NN retrieval approach does not perform well for thin (τ<3), inhomogeneous, or broken clouds. We also found that correction for above-cloud atmospheric absorption improved the NN retrievals moderately – but retrievals without this correction still behaved similarly to existing cloud retrievals with a slight systematic offset.

SPECTRAL-RESOLUTION LIDAR↗