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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2004

NASA Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research: South Carolina

The use of an appropriate relationship model is critical for reliable prediction of future urban growth. Identification of proper variables and mathematic functions and determination of the weights or coefficients are the key tasks for building such a model. Although the conventional logistic regression model is appropriate for handing land use problems, it appears insufficient to address the issue of interdependency of the predictor variables. This study used an alternative approach to simulation and modeling urban growth using artificial neural networks. It developed an operational neural network model trained using a robust backpropagation method. The model was applied in the Myrtle Beach region of South Carolina, and tested with both global datasets and areal datasets to examine the strength of both regional models and areal models. The results indicate that the neural network model not only has many theoretic advantages over other conventional mathematic models in representing the complex urban systems, but also is practically superior to the logistic model in its capability to predict urban growth with better - accuracy and less variation. The neural network model is particularly effective in terms of successfully identifying urban patterns in the rural areas where the logistic model often falls short. It was also found from the area-based tests that there are significant intra-regional differentiations in urban growth with different rules and rates. This suggests that the global modeling approach, or one model for the entire region, may not be adequate for simulation of a urban growth at the regional scale. Future research should develop methods for identification and subdivision of these areas and use a set of area-based models to address the issues of multi-centered, intra- regionally differentiated urban growth.

Sutton, Michael A.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Reliability and availability modeling of coupled communication networks - A simplified modeling approach

The network-complexity of LANs and of LANs that are interconnected by bridges and routers poses a challenging reliability-modeling problem. The present effort toward these problems' solution attempts to simplify them by reducing their number of states through truncation and state merging, as suggested by Shooman and Laemmel (1990). Through the use of state merging, it becomes possible to reduce the Bateman-Cortes 161 state model to a two state model with a closed-form solution. In the case of coupled networks, a technique which allows for problem-decomposition must be used.

Shooman, Martin L.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deterministic Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) Model for the EGS Collab Project on the 4850 Level of the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF)

The EGS Collab is conducting hydraulic fracture stimulation and fluid circulation experiments in the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) located in Lead, South Dakota. A total of eight ~60m-long subhorizontal boreholes were drilled from the 4850 Level (~1.5 km below the ground surface) into the crystalline rock of this former mine. Six of these holes are used for geophysical monitoring, one is used for hydraulic fracture stimulation, and the remaining hole was designed as a production borehole that receives water from the injection well via the induced and natural fracture system. The primary goal of creating the discrete fracture network model is to show that these modeling methods are critical for the development of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). This includes the prediction of rock behavior during fracturing and during an extended period of water flow between the parallel injection and production boreholes. Understanding the results from the induced fracturing and flow is complicated by the presence of significant natural fractures that interact with the stimulation and/or flow pathways. The delineation and characterization of natural fractures is thus an important part of the project, and therefore a model of the Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) was developed on a deterministic basis. The DFN was populated using observations and interpretations integrated from drift (horizontal passageways that allow access in the underground) fracture mapping, analysis of core recovered from the eight boreholes, borehole televiewer logs and videos, and observations of flow between and within boreholes and in the drift. The natural fracture system is dominated by a pervasive northwest-trending, steeply dipping shear system that is identifiable in the drifts and the core. Hydraulic fracture stimulation, flow/tracer circulation tests, and geophysical monitoring revealed that the behavior of the injected water, and perhaps the growth of induced fractures, has been significantly influenced by the existing fractures identified in the DFN.

40 EE - Geothermal Technologies Office (EE-4G)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Real Time Effective Impedance Estimation for Power System State Estimation

Here, we introduce two tools-the Effective Impedance State Estimator (EISE), and the Real Time Effective Impedance Estimator (RTEIE). The EISE is novel in that it is an entirely data-driven state estimator, and does not require a network model. Thus, the EISE is well suited for applications in which an accurate network model is not available. Instead of using a network impedance model, the EISE uses an effective impedance network model that is learned online by the RTEIE. The RTEIE recursively estimates the effective impedance network model using phasor measurement unit (PMU) measurements. The mathematical reasoning for using an effective impedance model, rather than a full network impedance model, is given. The recursive estimation framework allows the RTEIE to take the entire history of phasor measurements into account to produce a model estimate, while still adjusting to changes in the network impedance due to external factors such as topology changes and temperature. The merits of the RTEIE and EISE are demonstrated by comparing the accuracy of the EISE with a conventional state estimator on a toy network.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Neural network surrogate models for equations of state

Equation of state (EOS) data provide necessary information for accurate multiphysics modeling, which is necessary for fields such as inertial confinement fusion. Here, we suggest a neural network surrogate model of energy and entropy and use thermodynamic relationships to derive other necessary thermodynamic EOS quantities. We incorporate phase information into the model by training a phase classifier and using phase-specific regression models, which improves the modal prediction accuracy. Our model predicts energy values to 1% relative error and entropy to 3.5% relative error in a log-transformed space. Although sound speed predictions require further improvement, the derived pressure values are accurate within 10% relative error. Our results suggest that neural network models can effectively model EOS for inertial confinement fusion simulation applications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A framework for strategic discovery of credible neural network surrogate models under uncertainty

The widespread integration of deep neural networks in developing data-driven surrogate models for high-fidelity simulations of complex physical systems highlights the critical necessity for robust uncertainty quantification techniques and credibility assessment methodologies, ensuring the reliable deployment of surrogate models in consequential decision-making. Here, this study presents the Occam Plausibility Algorithm for surrogate models (OPAL-surrogate), providing a systematic framework to uncover predictive neural network-based surrogate models within the large space of potential models, including various neural network classes and choices of architecture and hyperparameters. The framework is grounded in hierarchical Bayesian inferences and employs model validation tests to evaluate the credibility and prediction reliability of the surrogate models under uncertainty. Leveraging these principles, OPAL-surrogate introduces a systematic and efficient strategy for balancing the trade-off between model complexity, accuracy, and prediction uncertainty. The effectiveness of OPAL-surrogate is demonstrated through two modeling problems, including the deformation of porous materials for building insulation and turbulent combustion flow for ablation of solid fuels within hybrid rocket motors.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning Models for Network Traffic Classification in Programmable Logic

Network traffic classification via machine learning on network packet payloads has emerged as an active area of research for network security due to the high accuracy machine learning models have achieved in classifying payloads. For effective deployment as part of network security, these machine learning models must not only classify malicious packet payloads accurately, they must also identify anomalous payloads and perform inference at speeds generally faster than 10,000 packets per second to be effective. This work explores the in- ference speeds and accuracy of several neural network models implemented in programmable logic on various field programmable gate arrays (FPGA) including the Xilinx VC1902 and Xilinx Zynq Ultrascale+. This work also presents the design and performance of both an autoencoder and variational autoencoder programmed on the FPGA for identifying anomalous packet payloads. The performance benefits of the FPGA implementation for this type of packet payload inspection driven by machine learning are compared against graphics processing unit (GPU) inference implementations run on two state-of-the-art datacenter GPU devices, the NVIDIA V100 and A100. The model accuracy difference between the FPGA and GPU implementations was found to be 4% or less while the Xilinx VC1902 outperformed both the NVIDIA V100 and A100 for inference speeds on all the models explored except the variational autoencoder.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Recurrent convolutional neural networks for modeling nonadiabatic dynamics of quantum-classical systems

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have recently been extensively applied to model the time evolution in fluid dynamics, weather predictions, and even chaotic systems due to their ability to capture temporal dependencies and sequential patterns in data. Here we present an RNN model based on convolutional neural networks for modeling the nonlinear nonadiabatic dynamics of hybrid quantum-classical systems. The dynamical evolution of the hybrid systems is governed by equations of motion for classical degrees of freedom and von Neumann equation for electrons. The Physics-Aware Recurrent Convolution (PARC) neural network structure incorporates a differentiator-integrator architecture that inductively models the spatiotemporal dynamics of generic physical systems. Here, we apply our RNN approach to learn the space-time evolution of a one-dimensional semiclassical Holstein model after an interaction quench. For shallow quenches (small changes in electron-lattice coupling), the deterministic dynamics can be accurately captured using a single-CNN-based recurrent network. In contrast, deep quenches induce chaotic evolution, making long-term trajectory prediction significantly more challenging. Nonetheless, we demonstrate that the PARC-CNN architecture can effectively learn the statistical climate of the Holstein model under deep-quench conditions.

Holstein model↗
DOE OSTI2021

Risk-Averse Bi-Level Stochastic Network Interdiction Model for Cyber-Security Risk Management

Security of cyber networks is crucial; recent severe cyber-attacks have had a devastating effect on many large organizations. The attack graph, which maps the potential attack paths of a cyber network, is a popular tool for analyzing cyber system vulnerability. In this study, we propose a bi-level stochastic network interdiction model on an attack graph to enable a risk-averse, resource constrained cyber network defender to optimally deploy security countermeasures that protect against attackers with an uncertain budget. This risk- averse conditional-value-at-risk (CVaR) model minimizes a weighted sum of the expected maximum loss over all scenarios and the expected maximum loss from the most damaging attack scenarios. We develop a customized constraint and column generation algorithm to solve our model as well as several acceleration techniques to improve the computational efficiency. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the acceleration techniques enable the solution of relatively large problems within a reasonable amount of time: applying all the acceleration techniques also reduces the average computation time of the basic algorithm by 71% for 100-node graphs. Using metrics called mean-risk value of stochastic solution and value of risk-aversion, computational results suggest that our stochastic risk-averse model significantly outperforms deterministic and risk-neutral models when 1) the distribution of attacker budget is heavy-right-tailed and 2) the defender is highly risk-averse.

Bhuiyan, Tanveer H.↗
NASA NTRS1978

A Closed Network Queue Model of Underground Coal Mining Production, Failure, and Repair

Underground coal mining system production, failures, and repair cycles were mathematically modeled as a closed network of two queues in series. The model was designed to better understand the technological constraints on availability of current underground mining systems, and to develop guidelines for estimating the availability of advanced mining systems and their associated needs for spares as well as production and maintenance personnel. It was found that: mine performance is theoretically limited by the maintainability ratio, significant gains in availability appear possible by means of small improvements in the time between failures the number of crews and sections should be properly balanced for any given maintainability ratio, and main haulage systems closest to the mine mouth require the most attention to reliability.

Lohman, G. M.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Algorithms for Performance, Dependability, and Performability Evaluation using Stochastic Activity Networks

Modeling tools and technologies are important for aerospace development. At the University of Illinois, we have worked on advancing the state of the art in modeling by Markov reward models in two important areas: reducing the memory necessary to numerically solve systems represented as stochastic activity networks and other stochastic Petri net extensions while still obtaining solutions in a reasonable amount of time, and finding numerically stable and memory-efficient methods to solve for the reward accumulated during a finite mission time. A long standing problem when modeling with high level formalisms such as stochastic activity networks is the so-called state space explosion, where the number of states increases exponentially with size of the high level model. Thus, the corresponding Markov model becomes prohibitively large and solution is constrained by the the size of primary memory. To reduce the memory necessary to numerically solve complex systems, we propose new methods that can tolerate such large state spaces that do not require any special structure in the model (as many other techniques do). First, we develop methods that generate row and columns of the state transition-rate-matrix on-the-fly, eliminating the need to explicitly store the matrix at all. Next, we introduce a new iterative solution method, called modified adaptive Gauss-Seidel, that exhibits locality in its use of data from the state transition-rate-matrix, permitting us to cache portions of the matrix and hence reduce the solution time. Finally, we develop a new memory and computationally efficient technique for Gauss-Seidel based solvers that avoids the need for generating rows of A in order to solve Ax = b. This is a significant performance improvement for on-the-fly methods as well as other recent solution techniques based on Kronecker operators. Taken together, these new results show that one can solve very large models without any special structure.

Deavours, Daniel D.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Software cost/resource modeling: Deep space network software cost estimation model

A parametric software cost estimation model prepared for JPL deep space network (DSN) data systems implementation tasks is presented. The resource estimation model incorporates principles and data from a number of existing models, such as those of the General Research Corporation, Doty Associates, IBM (Walston-Felix), Rome Air Force Development Center, University of Maryland, and Rayleigh-Norden-Putnam. The model calibrates task magnitude and difficulty, development environment, and software technology effects through prompted responses to a set of approximately 50 questions. Parameters in the model are adjusted to fit JPL software lifecycle statistics. The estimation model output scales a standard DSN work breakdown structure skeleton, which is then input to a PERT/CPM system, producing a detailed schedule and resource budget for the project being planned.

Tausworthe, R. J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Model metamers reveal divergent invariances between biological and artificial neural networks

Deep neural network models of sensory systems are often proposed to learn representational transformations with invariances like those in the brain. To reveal these invariances, we generated ‘model metamers’, stimuli whose activations within a model stage are matched to those of a natural stimulus. Metamers for state-of-the-art supervised and unsupervised neural network models of vision and audition were often completely unrecognizable to humans when generated from late model stages, suggesting differences between model and human invariances. Targeted model changes improved human recognizability of model metamers but did not eliminate the overall human–model discrepancy. The human recognizability of a model’s metamers was well predicted by their recognizability by other models, suggesting that models contain idiosyncratic invariances in addition to those required by the task. Metamer recognizability dissociated from both traditional brain-based benchmarks and adversarial vulnerability, revealing a distinct failure mode of existing sensory models and providing a complementary benchmark for model assessment.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

pyflowline: a mesh-independent river network generator for hydrologic models

River networks are crucial in hydrologic and Earth system models. Accurately representing river networks in spatially distributed hydrologic models requires considering the model's spatial discretization and computational mesh. However, current methods of generating river networks for hydrologic models do not typically support unstructured meshes. Unstructured meshes offer numerous advantages over traditional, structured meshes. To overcome this limitation, we developed PyFlowline, a Python package that generates mesh-independent river networks. With PyFlowline, hydrologic modelers can generate conceptual river networks and their topological relationships for both structured and unstructured meshes.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characteristics of a cost-effective blood test for colorectal cancer screening

Background: Blood-based biomarker tests can potentially change the landscape of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. We characterize the conditions under which blood test screening would be as effective and cost-effective as annual fecal immunochemical testing or decennial colonoscopy. Methods: We used the 3 Cancer Information and Surveillance Modeling Network–Colon models to compare scenarios of no screening, annual fecal immunochemical testing, decennial colonoscopy, and a blood test meeting Centers for Medicare & Medicaid (CMS) coverage criteria (74% CRC sensitivity and 90% specificity). We varied the sensitivity to detect CRC (74%-92%), advanced adenomas (10%-50%), screening interval (1-3 years), and test cost ($25-$500). Primary outcomes included quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) gained from screening and costs for a US average-risk cohort of individuals aged 45 years. Results: Annual fecal immunochemical testing yielded 125-163 QALY gained per 1000 at a cost of 3811-5384 dollars per person, whereas colonoscopy yielded 132-177 QALY gained at a cost of 5375-7031 dollars per person. A blood test with 92% CRC sensitivity and 50% advanced adenoma sensitivity yielded 117-162 QALY gained if used every 3 years and 133-173 QALY gained if used every year but would not be cost-effective if priced above $$125 per test. If used every 3 years, a $500 blood test only meeting CMS coverage criteria yielded 83-116 QALY gained at a cost of $8559-$9413 per person. Conclusion: Blood tests that only meet CMS coverage requirements should not be recommended to patients who would otherwise undergo screening by colonoscopy or fecal immunochemical testing because of lower benefit. Blood tests need higher advanced adenoma sensitivity (above 40%) and lower costs (below $125) to be cost-effective.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

SBML Level 3: an extensible format for the exchange and reuse of biological models

Systems biology has experienced dramatic growth in the number, size, and complexity of computational models. To reproduce simulation results and reuse models, researchers must exchange unambiguous model descriptions. We review the latest edition of the Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML), a format designed for this purpose. A community of modelers and software authors developed SBML Level 3 over the past decade. Its modular form consists of a core suited to representing reaction-based models and packages that extend the core with features suited to other model types including constraint-based models, reaction-diffusion models, logical network models, and rule-based models. The format leverages two decades of SBML and a rich software ecosystem that transformed how systems biologists build and interact with models. More recently, the rise of multiscale models of whole cells and organs, and new data sources such as single-cell measurements and live imaging, has precipitated new ways of integrating data with models. We provide our perspectives on the challenges presented by these developments and how SBML Level 3 provides the foundation needed to support this evolution.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1972

A feedback control model for network flow with multiple pure time delays

A control model describing a network flow hindered by multiple pure time (or transport) delays is formulated. Feedbacks connect each desired output with a single control sector situated at the origin. The dynamic formulation invokes the use of differential difference equations. This causes the characteristic equation of the model to consist of transcendental functions instead of a common algebraic polynomial. A general graphical criterion is developed to evaluate the stability of such a problem. A digital computer simulation confirms the validity of such criterion. An optimal decision making process with multiple delays is presented.

Press, J.↗
NASA NTRS2010

A Minimax Network Flow Model for Characterizing the Impact of Slot Restrictions

This paper proposes a model for evaluating long-term measures to reduce congestion at airports in the National Airspace System (NAS). This model is constructed with the goal of assessing the global impacts of congestion management strategies, specifically slot restrictions. We develop the Minimax Node Throughput Problem (MINNTHRU), a multicommodity network flow model that provides insight into air traffic patterns when one minimizes the worst-case operation across all airports in a given network. MINNTHRU is thus formulated as a model where congestion arises from network topology. It reflects not market-driven airline objectives, but those of a regulatory authority seeking a distribution of air traffic beneficial to all airports, in response to congestion management measures. After discussing an algorithm for solving MINNTHRU for moderate-sized (30 nodes) and larger networks, we use this model to study the impacts of slot restrictions on the operation of an entire hub-spoke airport network. For both a small example network and a medium-sized network based on 30 airports in the NAS, we use MINNTHRU to demonstrate that increasing the severity of slot restrictions increases the traffic around unconstrained hub airports as well as the worst-case level of operation over all airports.

Lee, Douglas W.↗