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DOE OSTI2022

CondiDiag1.0: a flexible online diagnostic tool for conditional sampling and budget analysis in the E3SM atmosphere model (EAM)

Abstract. Numerical models used in weather and climate prediction take into account a comprehensive set of atmospheric processes (i.e., phenomena) such as the resolved and unresolved fluid dynamics, radiative transfer, cloud and aerosol life cycles, and mass or energy exchanges with the Earth's surface. In order to identify model deficiencies and improve predictive skills, it is important to obtain process-level understanding of the interactions between different processes. Conditional sampling and budget analysis are powerful tools for process-oriented model evaluation, but they often require tedious ad hoc coding and large amounts of instantaneous model output, resulting in inefficient use of human and computing resources. This paper presents an online diagnostic tool that addresses this challenge by monitoring model variables in a generic manner as they evolve within the time integration cycle. The tool is convenient to use. It allows users to select sampling conditions and specify monitored variables at run time. Both the evolving values of the model variables and their increments caused by different atmospheric processes can be monitored and archived. Online calculation of vertical integrals is also supported. Multiple sampling conditions can be monitored in a single simulation in combination with unconditional sampling. The paper explains in detail the design and implementation of the tool in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 1. The usage is demonstrated through three examples: a global budget analysis of dust aerosol mass concentration, a composite analysis of sea salt emission and its dependency on surface wind speed, and a conditionally sampled relative humidity budget. The tool is expected to be easily portable to closely related atmospheric models that use the same or similar data structures and time integration methods.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Development, verification, and validation of comprehensive acoustic fluid-structure interaction capabilities in an open-source computational platform

The acoustic fluid-structure interaction (FSI) formulation is a practical numerical approach for the seismic analysis of fluid-filled tanks. However, there are no verification and validation studies reported in the literature that demonstrate the ability of an acoustic FSI numerical model to predict responses important to structural and mechanical design for intense translational and rotational earthquake inputs. Herein, an acoustic FSI formulation is implemented in the open-source Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE), and is formally verified and validated using analytical solutions and code-to-code verification, and experimental data, respectively. The analytical solutions are for small amplitude, unidirectional seismic inputs. The code-to-code verification utilizes a previously verified and validated Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) numerical model in the commercial finite element code LS-DYNA. The validation studies utilize a comprehensive data set assembled from results of 3D earthquake-simulator tests of a fluid-filled vessel. The acoustic numerical model in MOOSE is verified and validated for hydrodynamic pressures and support reactions except for cases that involve significant convective response. For small amplitude inputs, numerically predicted wave heights match those of the analytical solutions. The numerical model is not verified and validated for wave height calculations under intense 3D seismic inputs. The run times for the acoustic FSI simulations in MOOSE are an order of magnitude, or more, shorter than for the corresponding ALE simulations in LS-DYNA. The utility of the MOOSE acoustic FSI implementation is demonstrated by seismic analysis of a building equipped with a fluid-filled, advanced nuclear reactor.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Development, Monitoring, and Control of Fracture Thermal Energy Storage (FTES) in Crystalline Rock Formations (DEMO-FTES) (CRADA Final Report)

The DEMO-FTES project sought to demonstrate the thermal efficiency of fracture thermal energy storage (FTES) through numerical simulations, laboratory and meso-scale field tests. A detailed dimensional and scaling analysis was performed to identify key parameters and how they can be most effectively scaled to the laboratory and decameter scale. Numerical models were developed and used for three purposes: 1. Before field experiments, numerical modelling can be used to estimate fracture properties based on previous data from the EGS Collab experiment and then predict thermal hydrological behaviors of the fracture system with hot water injection/withdrawal, therefore, help to design the experiments (e.g., to decide the duration of the cycles based on the flow rate the pump can provide, and the estimated fracture properties); 2. After the field experiment, to estimate the system properties during the experiment (as the size and shape of a fracture could change over time), and understand why system performance is different than what has been predicted, i.e., to help understand the meso-scale test; and, 3. To model the lab experiments and estimate fracture properties and storage efficiency. Ultimately, the experiment and numerical models could shed light on the processes and uncertainty happening during fracture activation and help understand the scaling between lab and field test, and finally, the design and optimization of potential fracture thermal energy storage systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multiphysics and Multiscale Modeling of Coupled Transport of Chloride Ions in Concrete

Chloride ions (Cl−)-induced corrosion is one of the main degradation mechanisms in reinforced concrete (RC) structures. In most situations, the degradation initiates with the transport of Cl− from the surface of the concrete towards the reinforcing steel. The accumulation of Cl− at the steel-concrete interface could initiate reinforcement corrosion once a threshold Cl− concentration is achieved. An accurate numerical model of the Cl− transport in concrete is required to predict the corrosion initiation in RC structures. However, existing numerical models lack a representation of the heterogenous concrete microstructure resulting from the varying environmental conditions and the indirect effect of time dependent temperature and relative humidity (RH) on the water adsorption and Cl− binding isotherms. In this study, a numerical model is developed to study the coupled transport of Cl− with heat, RH and oxygen (O2) into the concrete. The modeling of the concrete microstructure is performed using the Virtual Cement and Concrete Testing Laboratory (VCCTL) code developed by the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). The concept of equivalent maturation time is utilized to eliminate the limitation of simulating concrete microstructure using VCCTL in specific environmental conditions such as adiabatic. Thus, a time-dependent concrete microstructure, which depends on the hydration reactions coupled with the temperature and RH of the environment, is achieved to study the Cl− transport. Additionally, Cl− binding isotherms, which are a function of the pH of the concrete pore solution, Cl− concentration, and weight fraction of mono-sulfate aluminate (AFm) and calcium-silicate-hydrate (C-S-H), obtained from an experimental study by the same authors are utilized to account for the Cl− binding of cement hydration products. The temperature dependent RH diffusion was considered to account for the transport of Cl− with moisture transport. The temperature and RH diffusion in the concrete domain, composite theory, and Cl− binding and water adsorption isotherms are used in combination, to estimate the ensuing Cl− diffusion field within the concrete. The coupled transport process of heat, RH, Cl−, and O2 is implemented in the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) developed by the U.S. Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The model was verified and validated using data from multiple experimental studies with different concrete mixture proportions, curing durations, and environmental conditions. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis was performed to identify that the water-to-cement (w/c) ratio, the exposure duration, the boundary conditions: temperature, RH, surface Cl− concentration, Cl− diffusion coefficient in the capillary water, and the critical RH are the important parameters that govern the Cl− transport in RC structures. In a case study, the capabilities of the developed numerical model are demonstrated by studying the complex 2D diffusion of Cl− in a RC beam located in two different climatic regions: warm and humid weather in Galveston, Texas, and cold and dry weather in North Minnesota, Minnesota, subjected to time varying temperature, RH, and surface Cl− concentrations.

composite theory↗

DOE OSTI2023

An evaluation of meteorological data prediction over Washington, D.C.: Comparison of DCNet observations and NAM model outputs

This study presents an example of how outputs of operational and readily-available mesoscale numerical models can be adapted to initialize dispersion calculations within the urban surface roughness layer. Three years of urban meteorological observations from central Washington, DC, are compared against forecast outputs of the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model. NAM wind speed predictions underestimate the observations in light winds and overestimate the measurements in high winds. Average wind directions are consistent. However, an adjustment of the predicted direction of the plume by –20° is needed. The uncertainty associated with this adjustment is large in light NAM wind speed with no evident variation by season. The values of the standard deviation of the wind direction, σθ derived from NAM model outputs underestimate the observations by a small amount (about –1.5 to –2.5°). The results presented here indicate that mesoscale numerical model outputs can provide information adequate for dispersion calculations. However, levels of uncertainty associated with implementation of the suggested procedures increase with decreasing wind speed, causing considerable uncertainty in the implementation of adjustments as low wind speed conditions are approached. Results and recommendations reported here should not be extended to other numerical models or other cities without further testing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Improved numerical methods for simulating complex mixture transport across asymmetric polymer membranes using a Maxwell–Stefan model

Not provided.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Comprehensive Review of Latent Space Dynamics Identification Algorithms for Intrusive and Non-Intrusive Reduced-Order-Modeling

Numerical solvers of partial differential equations (PDEs) have been widely employed for simulating physical systems. However, the computational cost remains a major bottleneck in various scientific and engineering applications, which has motivated the development of reduced-order models (ROMs). Recently, machine-learning-based ROMs have gained significant popularity and are promising for addressing some limitations of traditional ROM methods, especially for advection dominated systems. In this chapter, we focus on a particular framework known as Latent Space Dynamics Identification (LaSDI), which transforms the high-fidelity data, governed by a PDE, to simpler and low-dimensional latent-space data, governed by ordinary differential equations (ODEs). These ODEs can be learned and subsequently interpolated to make ROM predictions. Each building block of LaSDI can be easily modulated depending on the application, which makes the LaSDI framework highly flexible. In particular, we present strategies to enforce the laws of thermodynamics into LaSDI models (tLaSDI), enhance robustness in the presence of noise through the weak form (WLaSDI), select high-fidelity training data efficiently through active learning (gLaSDI, GPLaSDI), and quantify the ROM prediction uncertainty through Gaussian processes (GPLaSDI). We demonstrate the performance of different LaSDI approaches on Burgers equation, a non-linear heat conduction problem, and a plasma physics problem, showing that LaSDI algorithms can achieve relative errors of less than a few percent and up to thousands of times speed-ups.

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science (c↗

DOE OSTI2023

Combustion of petroleum-based transportation fuels and their blends with biofuels: a new approach for developing surrogates and understanding the effects of blending

Accurate and versatile reaction mechanisms are necessary to simulate combustion of transportation fuels blended with biofuels for improving fuel efficiency, reducing fuel consumption and mitigating the formation and emissions of combustion products harmful to the atmosphere. This project involved a combined effort of simulation and experimentation of liquid fuel burning using a combustion configuration amenable to numerical modeling with a level of detail not previously achieved for blends of biofuels with gasoline certification and surrogate fuels. The configuration of an isolated droplet burning under conditions where gas transport arises solely from fuel evaporation was selected as the platform for experiments and numerical modeling. The spherical symmetry and one-dimensional gas transport that results enabled simulating the droplet burning process with an precedented level of detail. Processes associated with unsteady gas and liquid transport, formation of particulate and gaseous products, radiation, multicomponent phase equilibrium at the droplet surface and moving boundary effects from droplet evaporation, were incorporated in a single numerical framework. The numerical model was based on the open source code OPENSmoke++ (OS) adapted to incorporate the effects noted above. In addition to simulation, an experimental design was developed for the isolated droplet configuration to acquire the data needed for validating the numerical model. Several broad accomplishments of the project were the following: demonstrating generally excellent agreement between measured and simulated combustion parameters for the fuel blends examined that included mixtures of heptane and isobutanol as a model system, and surrogates comprised of up to seven miscible components mixed with ethanol or isobutanol as representative biofuel additives; using a new approach to validate reaction mechanisms of biofuel blends which incorporated fuel evaporation into the process along with developing an experimental design for acquiring data to compare with simulations; and showing that a wealth of information could be obtained on the combustion physics of biofuels from experiments requiring volumes on the order of only nanoliters at a time thus opening the way to evaluating biofuels synthesized by new processes early in development.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2023

Computational framework for modeling of physical process

Techniques, systems, and devices are described for providing a computational frame for estimating high-dimensional stochastic behaviors. In one exemplary aspect, a method for performing numerical estimation includes receiving a set of measurements of a stochastic behavior. The set of correlated measurements follows a non-standard probability distribution and is non-linearly correlated. Also, a non-linear relationship exists between a set of system variables that describes the stochastic behavior and a corresponding set of measurements. The method includes determining, based on the set of measurements, a numerical model of the stochastic behavior. The numerical model comprises a feature space comprising non-correlated features corresponding to the stochastic behavior. The non-correlated features have a dimensionality of M and the set of measurements has a dimensionality of N, M being smaller than N. The method includes generating a set of approximated system variables corresponding to the set of measurements based on the numerical model.

Chen, Xiao↗

DOE OSTI2024

Computational framework for modeling of physical process

Chen, Xiao↗

DOE OSTI2022

Independent Review of Groundwater Remediation Strategy for Hexavalent Chromium and RDX Groundwater Plumes at Los Alamos National Laboratory (Rev. 1)

Site operations at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) resulted in the release of oxidized chromium, Cr(VI), into Sandia Canyon from cooling tower effluent from 1956 until 1972. The chromium traveled with the surface water approximately 3 miles downstream before migrating below ground surface. Chromium concentrations exceed 50 μg/L in the upper portion of the aquifer. Another LANL groundwater plume of concern is associated with RDX (Royal Demolition Explosives, 1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine). Between 1951 and 1996, RDX was released to the mesa-top facilities' process water outfall, adjacent and underlying soils, and alluvial sediments, along with surface water in Cañon de Valle. Between 2000 and 2010, two remedial actions were deployed, removing much of the near-surface RDX, however, recharge due to precipitation has transported RDX into the perched-intermediate zone and into the regional aquifer. The report documents an independent technical review by scientists from the Department of Energy (DOE) Network of National Laboratories for Environmental Management and Stewardship (NNLEMS) to provide recommendations for potential near term actions to address and optimize remediation for both the Cr(VI) and RDX plumes. The proposed near-term remedial actions include design of pump and treat systems for Cr(VI) and monitoring and study for natural attenuation for RDX. The review assesses existing data, conceptual and numerical modeling, and it recommends a technical integration process to support identifying and implementing strategic, effective and efficient remedies. The DOE Environmental Management Los Alamos Field Office (EM-LA) and their cleanup contractor Newport News Nuclear-BWTX, LLC Los Alamos (N3B) provided the information required for the review. Interviews were also conducted with regulators to obtain the full spectrum of technical, regulatory and scientific perspectives. The independent review team was impressed by the capabilities, experiences, innovativeness, and insightfulness of the technical representatives from both the regulator, the New Mexico Environment Department (NMED) and N3B. Incorporation of vadose zone flow pathways in the conceptual site model (CSM) and configuring the numerical modeling for the site was generally state-of-the-practice (or better). This could be considered state-of-the-art by addressing uncertainties related to spatial extent of hydraulic windows. The reviews from the regulators were thorough and often provided useful concepts for consideration and future/study resolutions. The overarching consensus recommendation of independent review team is that the LANL groundwater plumes should be addressed in context of the emerging "management of complex sites" paradigm.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

Calibrating uncertain parameters in melt pool simulations of additive manufacturing

Melt pool scale numerical modeling of additive manufacturing (AM) processes can provide predictive capabilities and theoretical insight into the process-property-structure-performance relationships for AM parts. Despite capabilities of numerical models to solve complex multi-physics problems, it is often important to consider a tradeoff between detailed physics and computational cost. Therefore, sources of uncertainty in both experimental conditions and the parameters needed for modeling require models to be validated against empirical evidence. Here, a method is proposed to calibrate uncertain parameters used in continuum-scale melt pool models for powder bed fusion (PBF) AM. Both a simplified heat transfer model and a heat transfer and fluid flow model were investigated. A surrogate model and Markov chain-based optimization algorithm calibrated melt pool geometry for models within experimental variation of the target melt pool width and depth from the NIST AM-Bench 2018-02 dataset. The melt pool temperature distributions, solidification parameters, and simulated multi-layer solidification microstructures were compared between the two models. Similar results from both models indicate that calibrated, lower fidelity numerical models may be used in place of higher fidelity models to generate melt pool solidification data. Finally, these calibrated models therefore enable lower computational cost melt pool simulations without a noticeable decrease in simulation accuracy for grain-scale microstructure simulations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2019

Enhancement of EM Pump Performance through Modeling and Testing

Liquid sodium has seen development as a nuclear reactor coolant in the United States for over 50 years. While sodium has many desirable characteristics as a heat transfer fluid, its reactivity poses numerous engineering challenges for even the most basic plant components like pumps. Despite the challenges, mechanical pumps have seen success in sodium service albeit at the expense of simplicity and flexibility. In fact, significant failures of these pumps have been recorded which can be attributed to their complexity. Notwithstanding the complexity, mechanical pumps are still widely proposed for the main circuit pump of sodium cooled reactors. However, an alternative to mechanical pumps are Electromagnetic Induction Pumps (EMIPs) which use the principle of the Lorentz Force. EMIPs avoid mechanically moving parts in contact with sodium which simplifies the design by avoiding mechanical wear and seals. Therefore, these pumps are generally safer and more reliable than their mechanical counterparts. That being said, EMIPs suffer from relatively low efficiencies that range from 5% to 45%. Some of the inefficiencies are inherent to the EMIPs pumps; namely, inefficiencies arise in the form of resistive heating losses in the fluid itself. However, other inefficiencies arise from Edge Effects which include Finite Length and Finite Width effects. Due to the significant safety advantages EMIPs have compared to mechanical pumps, there is a strong motivation to integrate these technologies into the design of Generation IV liquid-metal-cooled nuclear power plants. However, EMIPs have low efficiencies partly attributed to Edge Effects. Much of the literature focusing on Edge Effects is dated or simply does not exist in the public domain. More recently, numerical models of EMIPs have shown promising results. However, these models are often custom solvers or use complex software suits which limit their application. This report describes the work completed to understand Edge Effects in two EMIPs designs. These designs are the Annular Linear Induction Pump (ALIP) and Permanent Magnet Induction Pump (PMIP) also known as a Moving Magnet Pump (MMP). The methodology developed during this project aim at measuring key performance parameters (pressure-flowrate and efficiency-slip performance) using high temperature liquid-sodium. Baseline experimental measurements were then used to verify the accuracy of numerical models developed in the software suit ANSYS/FLUENT. On the experimental side, instrumentation was developed to characterize the pressure-flowrate and efficiency-slip performance of both the ALIP and PMIP in high-temperature liquid-sodium. Additionally, instrumentation was developed to measure potential output pressure pulsations and the magnetic field distributions. Moreover, a specialized ALIP was constructed to study the impacts magnetic field tapering, also known as coil grading, on the Finite Length Effect. Lastly, experimental performance curves of the PMIP were collected at 300 oC and 600 oC and compared to analytical theory which accounted for Finite Width Effects. These results showed that the Finite Width Effect and non-uniform magnetic field in a PMIP impact the performance. On the numerical side, models were developed using the software suit FLUENT/ANSYS. These methods were initially compared against a simple MHD flow in a Permanent Magnet Electromagnet Flowmeter (PMEMFM). The results were significant in that they showed agreeance between the numerical model and demonstrated that PMEMFM’s could be calibrated numerically. These modeling methods were then applied to a prototypic PMIP. Results showed that this simple model provided reasonably accurate results of the PMIP p-Q performance.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Unveiling the Essential Parameters Driving Mineral Reactions during CO2 Storage in Carbonate Aquifers through Proxy Models

Numerical simulation is a commonly employed technique for studying carbon dioxide (CO2) storage processes in porous media, particularly saline aquifers. It enables the representation of diverse trapping mechanisms and the assessment of CO2 retention capacity within the subsurface. The intricate physicochemical phenomena involved necessitate the incorporation of multiphase flow, accurate depiction of fluid and rock properties, and their interactions. Among these factors, geochemical reaction rates and mechanisms are pivotal for successful CO2 trapping in carbonate reactive rocks. However, research on kinetic parameters and the influence of lithology on CO2 storage remains limited. This limitation is partly due to the challenges faced in laboratory experiments, where the time scale of the reactions and the lack of in situ conditions hinder accurate measurement of mineral reaction rates. This study employs proxy models constructed using response surfaces calibrated with simulation results to address uncertainties associated with geochemical reactions. Monte Carlo simulation is utilized to explore a broader range of parameters and identify influential factors affecting CO2 mineralization. The findings indicate that an open database containing kinetic parameters can support uncertainty assessment. Additionally, the proxy models effectively represent objective functions related to CO2 injectivity and mineralization, with calcite dissolution playing a predominant role. pH, calcite concentration, and CO2 injection rate significantly impact dolomite precipitation, while quartz content remains unaffected.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Effect of toolpath in large-format additive manufacturing with bio-derived composites

There has been growing interest in integrating bio-derived composites into Large-format additive manufacturing (LFAM) feedstocks to reduce the use of petroleum-derived materials and reduce the overall carbon footprint of LFAM. However, these materials present unique challenges during manufacturing due to their variability, which can lead to unintended deformations and failures attributable to suboptimal process conditions. While numerical modelling has been extensively employed to simulate numerous manufacturing processes, its application in LFAM with bio-derived composites remains limited. This study addresses this gap by systematically developing a numerical model to simulate the LFAM process using bio-based materials, specifically wood fiber-reinforced polylactic acid (PLA/WF). Experimental investigations were conducted to characterise the thermal and mechanical properties of additively manufactured PLA/WF specimens. Numerical simulations were performed to predict temperature profiles and deformations during LFAM. The effect of varying infill patterns, internal structures, and tool paths on the temperature distribution and deformation of printed parts was explored using the developed model. This article aims to advance the utilisation of bio-derived composites in LFAM systems and provide a comprehensive understanding of the LFAM process. The findings offer valuable insights for optimising process parameters and enhancing the performance of LFAM with bio-based composites.

Large-format additive manufacturing↗

DOE OSTI2023

Turbulence modeling to aid tidal energy resource characterization in the Western Passage, Maine, USA

Numerical models combined with field measurements are regularly used to characterize tidal energy resources at potential energetic sites. However, most existing works only focus on the tidal hydrodynamic characteristics, and turbulence parameters are often not reported because of the lack of high-quality turbulence measurements and the limitations of numerical models in resolving turbulent eddies. In this study, we used FVCOM - a hydrostatic primitive equation (HPE) model - to characterize the tidal energy resource in the Western Passage, Maine, USA, by taking care of the essential macro-scale turbulence properties. We observed an excellent model performance using the Mellor-Yamada Level 2.5 Turbulence Model; estimating the spatial and vertical distribution of the turbulent kinetic energy and intensity added a new perspective to the site ranking for tidal energy converter (TEC) deployments. In addition, we also examined the role of channel geometry and bathymetry, such as headlands and underwater sills, in enhancing turbulent eddies around potential TEC siting locations. Ultimately, the detailed analysis of the turbulent flow characteristics has changed the site-ranking results and demonstrated that the regional-scale HPE models could be used for the relative understanding of more or less turbulent sites for a refined resource assessment.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2022

Centrifuge modeling and numerical analysis on lateral performance of mono-bucket foundation for offshore wind turbines

The lateral loading performance of the mono-bucket foundation for offshore wind turbines is investigated in this study through a series of centrifuge tests and numerical analysis. Six mono-bucket models are considered to assess the influences of aspect ratio under the ultimate condition. The FE model is validated against the centrifuge test results, and the failure mechanism of the foundation is revealed. The parametric study and sensitivity analysis of the soil parameters are performed in the numerical simulations. A modified theoretical calculation method is proposed to estimate the ultimate lateral capacity of the suction bucket foundation by solving the limit equilibrium equations. A correction term is added in the calculation using the “m” method. The position of the rotation center is calculated, demonstrating a better accuracy compared to the previously reported geometric method. The modified calculation method is verified against the field test, the centrifuge test, and the laboratory test. The method is proved to be applicable in estimating the lateral performance of the mono-bucket foundation in a general form. Finally, this study aims to provide well-documented data and design references for practical engineers.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

3-D Geological Modeling for Numerical Flow Simulation Studies of Gas Hydrate Reservoirs at the Kuparuk State 7-11-12 Pad in the Prudhoe Bay Unit on the Alaska North Slope

Accurate reservoir evaluation requires reliable three-dimensional (3-D) geological models. Here, this study conducted 3-D geological modeling for numerical flow simulation of the B1 sand gas hydrate reservoir at the Kuparuk State 7-11-12 pad, Prudhoe Bay Unit, Alaska North Slope. The model integrates well logs, core, and seismic data to address spatial heterogeneity in geological structures and reservoir properties. Two modeling types were performed: structural framework modeling and petrophysical property modeling. For structural framework modeling, seismic data and well log markers were used to reproduce subsurface structures characterized by a normal fault system. A volume-based modeling algorithm and stair-stepping grid were applied. The resulting 3-D model comprised 2,640,000 grid cells across 264 layers, including seven fault grids. For petrophysical property modeling, total porosity was initially modeled using sequential Gaussian simulation with collocated cokriging. To reproduce the upward coarsening of the B1 sand, upscaled log-derived total porosity and a three-dimensional (3-D) trend depicting total porosity variation were used as primary and secondary data, respectively. Gas hydrate saturation distribution was modeled similarly, with secondary data from estimated porosity distribution and seismic-derived acoustic impedance map enhancing accuracy. Results indicate higher gas hydrate saturation in the upper part of the B1 sand and areas with higher acoustic impedance. Intrinsic permeability was modeled from the total porosity and clay-bound water volume, and effective permeability was derived from the gas hydrate saturation and intrinsic permeability distributions based on the “Tokyo model”. Effective permeability distributions were influenced by the total porosity, gas hydrate saturation, and intrinsic permeability. Within the same layer, higher gas hydrate saturation leads to decreased effective permeability. In total, 100 sets of multiple scenarios were prepared, providing input data for dynamic flow simulations to evaluate the effects of lateral heterogeneity in reservoir properties and the hydraulic characteristics of faults on production behavior for preassessment before the long-term production test.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗