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At least 217 records · Page 12

Estimation of parameters in linear structural relationships Sensitivity to the choice of the ratio of error variances

Maximum likelihood estimation of parameters in linear structural relationships under normality assumptions requires knowledge of one or more of the model parameters if no replication is available. The most common assumption added to the model definition is that the ratio of the error variances of the response and predictor variates is known. This paper investigates the use of asymptotic formulae for variances and mean squared errors as a function of sample size and the assumed value for the error variance ratio.

Lakshminarayanan, M. Y.

Polarization of synchrotron radiation from relativistic Schwarzschild circular geodesics.

The pattern of geodesic synchrotron radiation emitted by a charge in an orbit close to the circular photon orbit at 3M around a nonrotating black hole of mass M is studied. The analysis is carried out using Stokes parameters, which completely characterize the state of the wave. The linear polarization, as observed at infinity, is total in the orbital plane and not smaller than 90% at the half-width of the beam. At the poles, pure circular polarization would be observed. In the region between the orbit plane and the poles the polarization shows features not present in ordinary synchrotron radiation. In our model, parameters more sensitive to deviations from the orbital plane are the Stokes parameter s (sub 2) and the tilt angle of the polarization ellipse.

Breuer, R. A.

Mars Sample Return Using Commercial Capabilities: Propulsive Entry, Descent, and Landing of a Capsule Form Vehicle

This paper describes a critical portion of the work that has been done at NASA, Ames Research Center regarding the use of the commercially developed Dragon capsule as a delivery vehicle for the elements of a high priority Mars Sample Return mission. The objective of the investigation was to determine entry and landed mass capabilities that cover anticipated mission conditions. The "Red Dragon", Mars configuration, uses supersonic retro-propulsion, with no required parachute system, to perform Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) maneuvers. The propulsive system proposed for use is the same system that will perform an abort, if necessary, for a human rated version of the Dragon capsule. Standard trajectory analysis tools are applied to publically available information about Dragon and other legacy capsule forms in order to perform the investigation. Trajectory simulation parameters include entry velocity, flight path angle, lift to drag Ratio (L/D), landing site elevation, atmosphere density, and total entry mass, in addition engineering assumptions for the performance of the propulsion system are stated. Mass estimates for major elements of the overall proposed architecture are coupled to this EDL analysis to close the overall architecture. Three synodic launch opportunities, beginning with the 2022 opportunity, define the arrival conditions. Results state the relations between the analysis parameters as well as sensitivities to those parameters. The EDL performance envelope includes landing altitudes between 0 and -4 km referenced to the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter datum as well as minimum and maximum atmosphere density. Total entry masses between 7 and 10 mt are considered with architecture closure occurring between 9.0 and 10 mt. Propellant mass fractions for each major phase of the EDL - Entry, Terminal Descent, and Hazard Avoidance - have been derived. An assessment of the effect of the entry conditions on the Thermal Protection System (TPS) currently in use for Dragon missions shows no significant stressors. A useful payload mass of 2.0 mt is provided and includes mass and grow allowance for a Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV), Earth Return Vehicle (ERV), and mission unique equipment. The useful payload supports an architecture that receives a sample from another surface asset and sends it directly back to Earth for recovery in a high Earth orbit. The work shows that emerging commercial capabilities as well as previously studied EDL methodologies can be used to efficiently support an important planetary science objective. The work also has applications for human exploration missions that will also use propulsive EDL techniques

EDL

Low-thrust trajectory Bacon plots for Mars mission design

The best way to understand a mission design trade space is by creating a good map of all the possibilities, and by knowing how to read it. Bacon plots, which are low-thrust analogs to porkchop plots, give insight into key parameters and sensitivities of possible transfers to Mars (or other destinations). They are mission and parameter specific, and can be created to represent single or multiple legs. This paper outlines the creation process and lessons learned in interpreting the results. An example is given on how bacon plots have been employed for complex mission-level optimization.

Olikara, Zubin

Dissipative compensators for flexible spacecraft control

The problem of controller design for flexible spacecraft is addressed. Model-based compensators, which rely on the knowledge of the system parameters to tune the state estimator, are considered. The instability mechanisms resulting from high sensitivity to parameter uncertainties are investigated. Dissipative controllers, which use collocated actuators and sensors, are also considered, and the robustness properties of constant-gain dissipative controllers in the presence of unmodeled elastic-mode dynamics, sensor/actuator nonlinearities, and actuator dynamics are summarized. In order to improve the performance without sacrificing robustness, a class of dissipative dynamic compensators is proposed and is shown to retain robust stability in the presence of second-order actuator dynamics if acceleration feedback is employed. A class of dissipative dynamic controllers is proposed which consists of a low-authority, constant-gain controller and a high-authority dynamic compensator. A procedure for designing an optimal dissipative dynamic compensator is given which minimizes a quadratic performance criterion. Such compensators offer the promise of better performance while still retaining robust stability.

Joshi, S. M.

Design sensitivity analysis using EAL. Part 1: Conventional design parameters

A numerical implementation of design sensitivity analysis of builtup structures is presented, using the versatility and convenience of an existing finite element structural analysis code and its database management system. The finite element code used in the implemenatation presented is the Engineering Analysis Language (EAL), which is based on a hybrid method of analysis. It was shown that design sensitivity computations can be carried out using the database management system of EAL, without writing a separate program and a separate database. Conventional (sizing) design parameters such as cross-sectional area of beams or thickness of plates and plane elastic solid components are considered. Compliance, displacement, and stress functionals are considered as performance criteria. The method presented is being extended to implement shape design sensitivity analysis using a domain method and a design component method.

Dopker, B.

Bayesian estimation - A sensitivity analysis

The robustness of the assigned prior distribution in a Bayesian estimation problem is examined. A Bayesian analysis for a stochastic intensity parameter of a Poisson distribution is summarized in which the natural conjugate is assigned as the prior distribution of the random parameter. The sensitivity analysis is carried out by assuming the existence of a true prior which is different in form from that of the assigned prior distribution. By using mean-squared error as a measure of performance, the ensuing Bayes decision function is compared to the corresponding minimum variance unbiased estimator. Results indicate that the Bayes estimator is largely robust to deviations from the assigned prior and remains squared-error superior to the MVU type within a broad region.

Canavos, G. C.

Influences of joystick spring resistance on the execution of simple and complex positioning movements

To provide good proprioceptive feedback in a manual control device for a designation task, spring resistance of a joystick was optimized by adjustment of centering force and deflection nonlinearly with each other by using the psychophysical method of cross modality matching. Designation with zero and first order systems showed that the coarse adjustment was insensitive to stick and certain task parameters, although it was influenced by some biomechanical parameters and the anticipated demands of the final control positioning. Only the more difficult fine adjustment is sensitive to parameter alterations and therefore suitable for optimization attempts. The strong centering of the stick by a nonlinear degressive spring resistance facilitates fine adjustment. Through this, total adjustment time with the first order system is reduced by more than thirty percent, compared to a linear resistance. Tracking experiments affirm the usefulness and preference of nonlinear spring resistance.

Rothbauer, G.

Machine Learning Driven Sensitivity Analysis of E3SM Land Model Parameters for Wetland Methane Emissions

Methane (CH 4 ) is globally the second most critical greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide, contributing to 16%–25% of the observed atmospheric warming. Wetlands are the primary natural source of methane emissions globally. However, wetland methane emission estimates from biogeochemistry models contain considerable uncertainty. One of the main sources of this uncertainty arises from the numerous uncertain model parameters within various physical, biological, and chemical processes that influence methane production, oxidation, and transport. Sensitivity Analysis (SA) can help identify critical parameters for methane emission and achieve reduced biases and uncertainties in future projections. This study performs SA for 19 selected parameters responsible for critical biogeochemical processes in the methane module of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). The impact of these parameters on various CH 4 fluxes is examined at 14 FLUXNET- CH 4 sites with diverse vegetation types. Given the extensive number of model simulations needed for global variance-based SA, we employ a machine learning (ML) algorithm to emulate the complex behavior of ELM methane biogeochemistry. We found that parameters linked to CH 4 production and diffusion generally present the highest sensitivities despite apparent seasonal variation. Comparing simulated emissions from perturbed parameter sets against FLUXNET-CH 4 observations revealed that better performances can be achieved at each site compared to the default parameter values. This presents a scope for further improving simulated emissions using parameter calibration with advanced optimization techniques.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Sensitivity of optimum solutions to problem parameters

In an aircraft configuration optimization, the information of interest is the sensitivity of optimal block fuel consumption and wing aspect ratio and area, to variations of required range and payload. The objectives of this study are: (1) to show how the equations capable of yielding the sensitivity derivatives (the sensitivity equations) can be obtained for a constrained optimum regardless of the type of optimization algorithm that was used to arrive at the optimum point, (2) to review the solvability of the sensitivity equations and (3) to report on applications on structural optimization. Numerical examples, which demonstrate the sensitivity analysis, include a tubular column and a three-bar truss for which closed form solutions are obtained, a ten-bar truss that requires the use of a finite element analysis, and a thin-walled beam characterized by strongly nonlinear constraints for local buckling. It is concluded that a practically significant extrapolation accuracy may be obtained for a reasonably broad range of parameter changes; and that accuracy does not depend strongly on the degree of convergence of the optimum solution from which the sensitivity derivatives are obtained.

Sobieszczanski-Sobieski, J.

Finite Element Model Calibration Approach for Area I-X

Ares I-X is a pathfinder vehicle concept under development by NASA to demonstrate a new class of launch vehicles. Although this vehicle is essentially a shell of what the Ares I vehicle will be, efforts are underway to model and calibrate the analytical models before its maiden flight. Work reported in this document will summarize the model calibration approach used including uncertainty quantification of vehicle responses and the use of non-conventional boundary conditions during component testing. Since finite element modeling is the primary modeling tool, the calibration process uses these models, often developed by different groups, to assess model deficiencies and to update parameters to reconcile test with predictions. Data for two major component tests and the flight vehicle are presented along with the calibration results. For calibration, sensitivity analysis is conducted using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). To reduce the computational burden associated with ANOVA calculations, response surface models are used in lieu of computationally intensive finite element solutions. From the sensitivity studies, parameter importance is assessed as a function of frequency. In addition, the work presents an approach to evaluate the probability that a parameter set exists to reconcile test with analysis. Comparisons of pretest predictions of frequency response uncertainty bounds with measured data, results from the variance-based sensitivity analysis, and results from component test models with calibrated boundary stiffness models are all presented.

Horta, Lucas G.

Finite Element Model Calibration Approach for Ares I-X

Ares I-X is a pathfinder vehicle concept under development by NASA to demonstrate a new class of launch vehicles. Although this vehicle is essentially a shell of what the Ares I vehicle will be, efforts are underway to model and calibrate the analytical models before its maiden flight. Work reported in this document will summarize the model calibration approach used including uncertainty quantification of vehicle responses and the use of nonconventional boundary conditions during component testing. Since finite element modeling is the primary modeling tool, the calibration process uses these models, often developed by different groups, to assess model deficiencies and to update parameters to reconcile test with predictions. Data for two major component tests and the flight vehicle are presented along with the calibration results. For calibration, sensitivity analysis is conducted using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). To reduce the computational burden associated with ANOVA calculations, response surface models are used in lieu of computationally intensive finite element solutions. From the sensitivity studies, parameter importance is assessed as a function of frequency. In addition, the work presents an approach to evaluate the probability that a parameter set exists to reconcile test with analysis. Comparisons of pre-test predictions of frequency response uncertainty bounds with measured data, results from the variance-based sensitivity analysis, and results from component test models with calibrated boundary stiffness models are all presented.

Horta, Lucas G.

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses of a Two-Parameter Impedance Prediction Model

This paper presents comparisons of predicted impedance uncertainty limits derived from Monte-Carlo-type simulations with a Two-Parameter (TP) impedance prediction model and measured impedance uncertainty limits based on multiple tests acquired in NASA Langley test rigs. These predicted and measured impedance uncertainty limits are used to evaluate the effects of simultaneous randomization of each input parameter for the impedance prediction and measurement processes. A sensitivity analysis is then used to further evaluate the TP prediction model by varying its input parameters on an individual basis. The variation imposed on the input parameters is based on measurements conducted with multiple tests in the NASA Langley normal incidence and grazing incidence impedance tubes; thus, the input parameters are assigned uncertainties commensurate with those of the measured data. These same measured data are used with the NASA Langley impedance measurement (eduction) processes to determine the corresponding measured impedance uncertainty limits, such that the predicted and measured impedance uncertainty limits (95% confidence intervals) can be compared. The measured reactance 95% confidence intervals encompass the corresponding predicted reactance confidence intervals over the frequency range of interest. The same is true for the confidence intervals of the measured and predicted resistance at near-resonance frequencies, but the predicted resistance confidence intervals are lower than the measured resistance confidence intervals (no overlap) at frequencies away from resonance. A sensitivity analysis indicates the discharge coefficient uncertainty is the major contributor to uncertainty in the predicted impedances for the perforate-over-honeycomb liner used in this study. This insight regarding the relative importance of each input parameter will be used to guide the design of experiments with test rigs currently being brought on-line at NASA Langley.

Jones, M. G.

CONCURRENT, CONDENSED STEIN VARIATIONAL GRADIENT DESCENT FOR UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION OF NEURAL NETWORKS

In this work, we propose a Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) method to concurrently sparsify, train, and provide uncertainty quantification (UQ) of a complexly parameterized model, such as a neural network (NN). It employs a graph reconciliation and condensation process to reduce complexity and increase similarity in the Stein ensemble of parameterizations. Therefore, the proposed concurrent, condensed SVGD (ccSVGD) method can provide UQ on parameters, not just outputs. Furthermore, the parameter reduction speeds up the convergence of the Stein gradient descent as it reduces the combinatorial complexity by aligning and differentiating the sensitivity to parameters. These properties are demonstrated with an illustrative example and an application to a mechanical response representation problem in solid mechanics.

42 ENGINEERING

Polarimetric thermal emission from rough surfaces

Recent theoretical works have suggested the potential of passive polarimetry in the remote sensing of geophysical media. It was shown that the third Stokes parameter U of the thermal emission may become larger for azimuthally asymmetric fields of observation. In order to investigate the potential applicability of passive polarimetry to the remote sensing of ocean surface, measurements of the polarimetric thermal emission from a sinusoidal water surface and a numerical study of the polarimetric thermal emission from randomly rough ocean surfaces were performed. Measurements of sinusoidal water surface thermal emission were performed using a sinusoidal water surface which was created by placing a thin sheet of fiberglass with a sinusoidal profile in two dimensions extended infinitely in the third dimension onto a water surface. The theory of thermal emission from a 'two-layer' periodic surface is derived and the exact solution is performed using both the extended boundary condition method (EBC) and the method of moments (MOM). The theoretical predictions are found to be in good agreement with the experimental results once the effects of the radiometer antenna pattern are included and the contribution of background noise to the measurements is modeled. The experimental results show that the U parameter indicates the direction of periodicity of the water surface and can approach values of up to 30 K for the surface observed. Next, a numerical study of polarimetric thermal emission from randomly rough surfaces was performed. A Monte Carlo technique utilizing an exact method for calculating thermal emission was chosen for the study to avoid any of the limitations of the commonly used approximate methods in rough surface scattering. In this Monte Carlo technique, a set of finite rough surface profiles in two dimensions with desired statistics was generated and extended periodically. The polarimetric thermal emission from each surface of the set was then calculated using both the EBC and the MOM and the results were averaged. The surface statistics chosen were intended to model a wind perturbed ocean surface in the X to Ku band microwave region. The results indicate that the U parameter is sensitive to the azimuthal angle between the surface periodicity and the looking angle and to the rms height of the surface, and that the U parameter is fairly insensitive to variations in polar angle, permittivity, surface power law spectrum, and surface spectrum high frequency cutoff. These properties give further strength to the idea of using the U parameter to detect wind direction over the ocean.

Johnson, J. T.

Enabling Mission Flexibility to Battery Driven Deep Space Endeavors With Generalized Battery-Health-Monitoring Using Physics-Based and Data-Driven Reduced-Order Models

The needs and requirements for an electrochemical energy storage for deep space exploration is well explored. It is often understood that different mission sites and environmental conditions require different battery chemistries or technologies. Additionally, various engineering solutions are deployed to overcome specific chemical challenges. One often overlooked need is the “health” monitoring of an electrochemical storage system. The term generalized health monitoring, as envisioned in this work, refers to the monitoring of various aspects such as electrode health, electrolyte health, reaction pathway health, cooling system health, sensor health, and BMS health [1]. Generalized health monitoring allows mission leads, engineers, and scientists to incorporate flexibility in mission designs, make on-the-fly mission changes, and extend the duration of science missions. Moreover, it enables automation and data-driven decision-making without compromising safety and performance. Recently, our group developed a hierarchy of thermal reduced-order models (TROM) by combining a physics-based modeling approach and data-driven model reduction techniques applied to flight data [2]. The resulting TROMs were found to be not only accurate but also identifiable from the flight data. Consequently, the coefficient of variance of the model parameters is small over the course of hundreds of flights, allowing for monitoring the parameter evolution trajectories as the battery ages and degrades. These parameters constitute the metrics of the generalized health of a battery. Monitoring their evolution allows such models to be used for anomaly detection and prognostics, improving early detection of abnormal behavior and thus enabling timely maintenance, longer battery life, and enhanced battery safety. For this presentation, the practicality of the thermal model will be validated on a pack of 14cells under various topology configurations such as 1S14P, 2P7S, 7S2P, and 1P14S. It is well known that manufacturing and non-uniform aging lead to variability in the performance of a cell, which is exacerbated by cell balancing during active load. Additionally, in extreme scenarios, the paramount objective is to complete the mission, regardless of the stresses on the battery. Topology-induced balancing issues further stress the battery. The goal of this study is to determine if the noise (identifiability) in the reduced-order thermal model parameters is sensitive to topology, cell spacing, cooling strategy, and manufacturing or age variability. The variability in cells is considered by assuming a multimodal distribution for microscopic parameters of a cell (such as porosity, tortuosity, reaction kinetics, volumetric thermal conductivity, and volumetric heat capacity). The compounded effect of manufacturing variability, topological selection, cooling strategies, and cell balancing ages each cell in a battery differently. The study aims to clarify whether the challenge in extracting maximum information depends on the minimum number of sensors or models used for data extraction.

Automation

Coverage modeling for dependability analysis of fault-tolerant systems

Several different models for predicting coverage in a fault-tolerant system, including models for permanent, intermittent, and transient errors, are discussed. Markov, semi-Markov, nonhomogeneous Markov, and extended stochastic Petri net models for computing coverage are developed. Two types of events that interfere with recovery are examined; and methods for modeling such events, whether they are deterministic or random, are given. The sensitivity of system reliability/availability to the coverage parameter and the sensitivity of the coverage parameter to various error-handling strategies are investigated. It is found that a policy of attempting transient recovery upon detection of an error can actually increase the unreliability of the system. This result is true if the error detectability is not nearly perfect, so that the risk of producing an undetectable error is greater than the benefit gained by not discarding the component.

Dugan, Joanne Bechta

Multibody for Everybody (M4E): A Symbolic Dynamics Modeling Tool with Applications in Simulation, Control, and Optimization

Developing the analytical model of a multibody system is often the initial step in control and optimization. The analytical model (equations of motion) describes a system’s time evolution under specified forcing conditions. Although developing these equations is easy for simple systems, this process becomes more complex for systems composed of multiple bodies. Deriving equations of motion for complex multibody systems requires specialized expertise in multibody dynamics, is time-consuming, and is susceptible to error. To address this issue, this paper presents an open-source, easy-to-use, systematic framework to derive symbolic equations of motion in both Python and MATLAB using the joint coordinate formulation. This formulation results in a set of ordinary differential equations that use the minimum set of coordinates needed to model a system. The symbolic representation provides better insight into the influence of design parameters on system performance, facilitates sensitivity analysis and parameter studies, and supports direct implementation of control and optimization routines. The tool enables numerical simulation for specified parameter sets, is modular for straightforward integration with other tools and libraries, and allows incorporation of hydrodynamics, mooring, and other external forces. The result is a reproducible, extensible pipeline for modeling, simulation, and design of complex multibody systems. The proposed tool is versatile and can be applied to domains such as robotics, control, and design. In addition, we integrated external libraries that provide capabilities for modeling offshore systems such as underwater robots and marine energy converters.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER