Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “parameter sensitivity”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

PSA 2025 Presentation: "Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis of a Generation IV Pebble Bed Reactor Using MELCOR 2.2"

Accompanying the advancement of reactor technologies is the need for computational modeling and simulation to predict their behavior under normal operating conditions and accident scenarios. New Generation IV reactor designs which employ non-conventional fuel have a particular need for modeling the behavior and release of radionuclides and other material from the fuel. In this work, MELCOR version 2.2, a system-level safety and accident scenario code developed by Sandia National Laboratories, was used to model a 200-MWth pebble bed modular reactor and calculate the inventories of circulating and deposited graphite, metal dust, and elemental components released from the fuel elements. A base case modeling the reactor under standard operating conditions was calculated using MELCOR and the inventories were extrapolated to 30 years of operation time using a logarithmic regression fit. A sensitivity analysis was also performed in which several key parameters for the base case model were modified to explore the effect of these changes on the inventories calculated by MELCOR. A set of transient scenario simulations for a depressurized loss of forced cooling (DLOFC) accident were also performed. The results of the sensitivity analysis and transient simulations are reported and discussed in relation to the modeling techniques used for this study.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Blowing in the dark matter wind

Abstract Interactions between dark matter and ordinary matter will transfer momentum, and therefore give rise to a force on ordinary matter due to the dark matter ‘wind.’ We show that this force can be maximal in a realistic model of dark matter, meaning that an order-1 fraction of the dark matter momentum incident on a target of ordinary matter is reflected. The model consists of light (m ϕ ≲ eV) scalar dark matter with an effective interaction$$ {\phi}^2\overline{\psi}\psi $$ ϕ 2 ψ ¯ ψ , whereψis an electron or nucleon field. If the coupling is repulsive and sufficiently strong, the fieldϕis excluded from ordinary matter, analogous to the Meissner effect for photons in a superconductor. We show that there is a large region of parameter space that is compatible with existing constraints, where the force is large enough to be detected by existing force probes, such as satellite tests of the equivalence principle and torsion balance experiments. However, shielding of the dark matter by ordinary matter prevents existing experiments from being sensitive to the dark matter force. We show that precise measurements of spacecraft trajectories proposed to test long distance modifications of gravity are sensitive to this force for a wide range of parameters.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Incorporating Physical Priors into Weakly Supervised Anomaly Detection

We propose a new machine-learning-based anomaly detection strategy for comparing data with a background-only reference (a form of weak supervision). The sensitivity of previous strategies degrades significantly when the signal is too rare or there are many unhelpful features. Our prior-assisted weak supervision (PAWS) method incorporates information from a class of signal models to significantly enhance the search sensitivity of weakly supervised approaches. As long as the true signal is in the prespecified class, PAWS matches the sensitivity of a dedicated, fully supervised method without specifying the exact parameters ahead of time. On the benchmark LHC Olympics anomaly detection dataset, our mix of semisupervised and weakly supervised learning is able to extend the sensitivity over previous methods by a factor of 10 in cross section. Furthermore, if we add irrelevant (noise) dimensions to the inputs, classical methods degrade by another factor of 10 in cross section while PAWS remains insensitive to noise. This new approach could be applied in a number of scenarios and pushes the frontier of sensitivity between completely model-agnostic approaches and fully model-specific searches.

artificial neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sensitivity of magnetic islands in permanent magnet stellarators using the gradient and Hessian methods

Stellarator plasmas are known to be very sensitive to perturbations in the magnetic field. The permanent magnet stellarator was in part developed as a solution to high machining tolerances placed on the shape properties of electromagnetic coils in traditional stellarators. However, as a consequence of this high sensitivity to the field structure, sensitivities of permanent magnet stellarator plasmas to perturbations of permanent magnet properties must necessarily be well-understood. The gradient and Hessian matrix methods have been previously demonstrated to be useful sensitivity analysis methods for modular coils. We apply these two methods to the study of island width sensitivities in both the MUSE and PM4STELL permanent magnet stellarator projects. These sensitivity methods were used to determine the relative impacts of permanent magnet parameter perturbations on island widths in the vacuum field approximation of both stellarator equilibria. The square of resonant magnetic field perturbation is used here as a proxy for island width. In particular, gradients of magnetizations of individual magnets were examined in MUSE, as well as gradients of magnet group displacements informed by device design. Three different forms of permanent magnet magnetization perturbations are investigated for MUSE, and the flux surface response to perturbations is demonstrated. The Hessian matrix method is applied to PM4STELL, illustrating the sensitivity of dominant island widths to displacements of toroidal wedge structures. These methods allow for selective direction of experimental resources toward regions of heightened sensitivity, while constraints on less impactful permanent magnet parameters can be relaxed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Bayesian Multi-fidelity Neural Network to Predict Nonlinear Frequency Backbone Curves

The use of structural mechanics models during the design process often leads to the development of models of varying fidelity. Often low-fidelity models are efficient to simulate but lack accuracy, while the high-fidelity counterparts are accurate with less efficiency. Here, this paper presents a multi-fidelity surrogate modeling approach that combines the accuracy of a high-fidelity finite element model with the efficiency of a low-fidelity model to train an even faster surrogate model that parameterizes the design space of interest. The objective of these models is to predict the nonlinear frequency backbone curves of the Tribomechadynamics Research Challenge benchmark structure which exhibits simultaneous nonlinearities from frictional contact and geometric nonlinearity. The surrogate model consists of an ensemble of neural networks that learn the mapping between low and high-fidelity data through nonlinear transformations. Bayesian neural networks are used to assess the surrogate model's uncertainty. Once trained, the multi-fidelity neural network is used to perform sensitivity analysis to assess the influence of the design parameters on the predicted backbone curves. Additionally, Bayesian calibration is performed to update the input parameter distributions to correlate the model parameters to the collection of experimentally measured backbone curves.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

A computational investigation of high-flux, plate-and-frame membrane modules for industrial carbon capture

In this work, we study the application of membrane-based separation systems for carbon capture, considering plate-and-frame membrane modules. The successful deployment of membrane CO 2 capture system relies on high-performing membranes as well as effective membrane modules that can fully exploit the developed membranes. A plate-and-frame membrane module is especially attractive for CO 2 capture from industrial flue gas due to its lower pressure drop compared to its counterparts such as spiral wound modules and hollow fiber modules. To design better plate-and-frame modules, we investigate their basic unit - a single membrane stack through a combination of computational modeling and experimental investigations. The modeling approach is based on Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) to represent a multiphysics problem, including the fluid flow and diffusion processes within a membrane module. We use experimental data collected under different operating conditions to validate the CFD model. Numerical results suggest a good agreement between experiments and model outputs for the CO 2 recovery, CO 2 mole fraction in the retentate and permeate, and stage-cut. The CFD model is able to predict accurately the flow behavior, providing valuable insights on the effects of fluid dynamics on mass transfer of CO 2 . We also carry out a sensitivity analysis to identify the effect of key parameters on the CO 2 recovery and the CO 2 purity of the outlet streams.

CFD simulation↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Bayesian inference approach to analyze apparent activation barriers and reaction orders from microreactor data

Statistical analysis of steady-state catalytic kinetic data is often limited by data sparsity due to the slow pace at which the data is collected. Data sparsity and limitations in statistical analysis make it difficult to differentiate between mechanistic models and catalytic sites. A Bayesian inference tool is reported for catalysis researchers to estimate error in the determination of reaction orders from steady state microreactor data. The benefits of a Bayesian inference approach are discussed, as an alternative to the more common frequentist approach. The approach incorporates prior knowledge of the system and the data collected to form an error estimate on reaction orders. We investigated the effects of three distinct data treatments—individual fitting of trials, pooled analysis, and constrained regression methods—on the precision and uncertainty of reaction order determinations. To assess the robustness of our findings, we conducted sensitivity analyses to evaluate the influence of Bayesian parameters on uncertainty estimation. Additionally, we utilized synthetic data to illustrate how data quality impacts the precision of uncertainty assessments. We show Bayesian analysis can obtain a more precise estimation of error with a sparse data set than a frequentist analysis. Finally, this work provides strong evidence that the adoption of Bayesian analysis of kinetic data may help researchers make more precise arguments as to the strength of their evidence for a particular mechanistic hypothesis, or in comparing across different catalysts.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

An analytic theory for the degree of Arctic Amplification

Arctic Amplification (AA), the amplified surface warming in the Arctic relative to the global mean, is a robust and impactful feature of climate change. While the basic physical picture of AA has been depicted, a clear understanding of how the degree of AA is determined has not been established. Here, by deciphering the intricate role of atmospheric heat transport (AHT), we build a two-box energy-balance model of AA and derive that the degree of AA is a simple nonlinear function of the Arctic and global feedbacks, the meridional heterogeneity in radiative forcing, and the partial sensitivities of AHT to global mean warming and meridional warming gradient. The formula captures the varying degree of AA in individual climate models and attributes the variation to specific physical factors. It further conveys a concise picture of how essential physics mutually determine the degree of AA and limit the range within 1.5~3.5. Our results articulate AHT as both forcing and feedback to AA, highlighting its partial sensitivities instead of total change as the key parameters for understanding AA. We also find that the effect of lapse rate feedback, a widely-recognized major contributor to AA, is fully offset by the effect of water vapor feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Competing magnetic phases in Cr 3+𝛿 ⁢Te 4 are spatially segregated

Cr 1+𝑥⁢ Te 2 is a self-intercalated van der Waals system that is of current interest for its room-temperature room-temperature ferromagnetic (FM) phases and tunable topological properties. In bulk samples, the strain from the interstitial Cr ions leads to distinct structural phases for different ranges of 𝑥. Early neutron powder diffraction (NPD) measurements on the monoclinic phase Cr 3 ⁢Te 4 (𝑥=0.5) presented evidence for competing FM and antiferromagnetic (AFM) phases. Here we apply neutron diffraction to a single crystal of Cr 3+𝛿 ⁢Te 4 with 𝛿=−0.10 and discover that it consists of two distinct monoclinic phases, one with FM order below 𝑇 C ≈321 K and another that develops AFM order below 𝑇 N ≈86 K. In contrast, we find that a crystal with 𝛿=−0.26 exhibits only FM order below 𝑇 C ≈285 K. The single-crystal analysis is complemented by results obtained with NPD, x-ray powder diffraction, and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) measurements on the 𝛿=−0.10 composition. From observations of spontaneous magnetostriction of opposite sign at 𝑇 C and 𝑇 N , along with the TEM evidence for both monoclinic phases in a single thin ( ≈100 nm) grain, we conclude that the two phases must have a fine-grained ( ≲100 nm) intergrowth character, as might occur from high-temperature spinodal decomposition during the growth process. Calculations of the relaxed lattice structures for the FM and AFM phases with density functional theory provide a rationalization of the observed spontaneous magnetostrictions. Correlations between the magnitude and orientation of the magnetic moments with lattice parameter variation demonstrate that the magnetic orders are sensitive to strain, thus explaining why magnetic ordering temperatures and anisotropies can be different between bulk and thin-film samples, when the latter are subject to epitaxial strain. Our results point to the need to investigate the supposed coexistence FM and AFM phases reported elsewhere in the Cr 1+𝑥 ⁢Te 2 system, such as in the Cr 5 ⁢Te 8 phase (𝑥=0.25).

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Understanding the Quadrupole Mass Filter and Testing a High-Resolution QMS RGA for ITER

A common type of residual gas analyzer is the quadrupole mass spectrometer. One of the main components within this instrument is a mass filter known as the quadrupole. It is responsible for the selective throughput of the ionized gas particles - by ascending mass number - prior to ion impacts on the analyzer (or detector) surface from which the ion current signal is generated for processing. However, the quadrupole is not fully described in relation to the electric field characteristics and the function as an ion mass separator. This paper describes the basic origins of the electrical design, the intricate assembly criteria, and performance of the quadrupole within the spectrometer. A specialized quadrupole mass spectrometer is part of a configuration for a diagnostic gas analyzer system planned for ITER, a fusion research machine. It has a verified capability, essential as a diagnostic criterion for this reactor project, to successfully deconvolute the mass signals of Helium-4 and deuterium (reactor fuel exhaust gases, separated by only 0.026 atomic mass units), down to a relative three-percent concentration of the former gas. The associated preliminary testing, performed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, is also addressed. Finally, one of the key parameters used to express gas concentration, the relative sensitivity factor, will be explained, including an evaluation of dependency on other variables.

Marcus, Chris [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000190139636)↗
DOE OSTI2024

FY24: LEMMs: Long-term, Electrochemical Materials degradation Models

FY24 progress for LEMMs: Long-term, Electrochemical Materials degradation Models LDRD project are presented. Significant progress toward creating validated corrosion models was made in this FY paving success in future FY’s for success with battery model development and validation. Specifically, models for various forms of corrosion were probed for sensitivities showing a significant influence of reactive transport parameters for hydroxide species on the run time of the models. Further, cryo-genic time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectroscopy was utilized to map ions in a frozen corrosion droplet showing the precipitates/precipitate species near corroding locations. Additionally, a realistic corrosion droplet was created that accounted for evaporation and condensation coupled with corrosion. This pushes the boundary of corrosion modeling and will be validated in future FY’s.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

CFD modeling of high-flux plate-and-frame membrane modules for industrial carbon capture

In this work, we study the application of membrane-based separation systems for carbon capture, considering plate-and-frame membrane modules. The successful deployment of membrane CO2 capture system relies on high-performing membranes as well as effective membrane modules that can fully exploit the developed membranes. A plate-and-frame membrane module is especially attractive for CO2 capture from industrial flue gas due to its lower pressure drop compared to its counterparts such as spiral wound modules and hollow fiber modules. To design better plate-and-frame modules, we investigate their basic unit - a single membrane stack through a combination of computational modeling and experimental investigations. The modeling approach is based on Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) to represent a multiphysics problem, including the fluid flow and diffusion processes within a membrane module. We use experimental data collected under different operating conditions to validate the CFD model. Numerical results suggest a good agreement between experiments and model outputs for the CO2 recovery, CO2 mole fraction in the retentate and permeate, and stage-cut. The CFD model is able to predict accurately the flow behavior, providing valuable insights on the effects of fluid dynamics on mass transfer of CO2. We also carry out a sensitivity analysis to identify the effect of key parameters on the CO2 recovery and the CO2 purity of the outlet streams.

Dosso, Cheick↗
DOE OSTI2025

Examination of Factors Affecting the Cost and Performance of a Natural Gas Combined Cycle Equipped with Carbon Dioxide Capture

The purpose of this Technical Note is to report the findings of an examination of the effect of plausible deviations in select study assumptions on the reported cost and performance estimates for a power plant case drawn from NETL’s “Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants Volume 1: Bituminous Coal and Natural Gas to Electricity” (known as the Fossil Energy Baseline). An F-Class NGCC power plant equipped with state-of-the-art, solvent-based, post-combustion carbon dioxide (CO2) capture (95 percent carbon capture rate)—designated as Case B31B.95—was selected for this work. This sensitivity analysis provides insight into the effects of parameter variations within and across selected categories—ambient conditions, construction cost, natural gas (NG) price, capacity factor, and finance—on the plant performance and capital and operating and maintenance (O&M) costs, and the subsequent impact on common figures of merit.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling uncertainties in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission factors related to switchgrass-based biofuel production

This study investigates uncertainties in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission factors related to switchgrass-based biofuel production in Michigan. Using three life cycle assessment (LCA) databases— US lifecycle inventory database (USLCI), GREET, and Ecoinvent—each with multiple versions, we recalculated the global warming intensity (GWI) and GHG mitigation potential in a static calculation. Employing Monte Carlo simulations along with local and global sensitivity analyses, we assess uncertainties and pinpoint key parameters influencing GWI.

greenhouse ga emmission↗
DOE OSTI2025

Are light curve classification metrics good proxies for SN Ia cosmological constraining power?

Context. When selecting a light curve classifier for use as part of a photometric supernova Ia (SN Ia) cosmological analysis, it is common to make decisions based on metrics of classification performance, such as the contamination within the photometrically classified SN Ia sample, rather than a measure of cosmological constraining power. If the former is an appropriate proxy for the latter, this practice would eliminate the computational expense of a full cosmology forecast in the analysis pipeline design process. Aims. This study tests the assumption that light curve classification metrics are an appropriate proxy for cosmology metrics. Methods. We emulated photometric SN Ia cosmology light curve samples with controlled contamination rates of individual contaminant classes and evaluated each of them under a set of classification metrics. We then derived cosmological parameter constraints from all samples under two common analysis approaches and quantified the impact of contamination by each contaminant class on the resulting cosmological parameter estimates. Results. We observe that cosmology metrics are sensitive to both the contamination rate and the class of the contaminating population, whereas the classification metrics are shown to be insensitive to the latter. Conclusions. Based on these findings, we discourage any exclusive reliance on light curve classification-based metrics for analysis design decisions, which (counterintuitively) include but are not limited to the classifier choice. Instead, we recommend optimising science analysis pipeline design choices using a metric of the information gained about the physical parameters of interest.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Universal time scalings of sensitivity in Markovian quantum metrology

Assuming Markovian time evolution of a quantum sensing system, we study the general characterization of the optimal sensitivity scalings with time, under most general quantum control protocols. We allow the estimated parameter to influence both the Hamiltonian as well as the dissipative part of the quantum master equation and focus on the asymptotic-time along with the short-time sensitivity scalings. We find that via simple algebraic conditions (in terms of the Hamiltonian, the jump operators as well as their parameter derivatives), one can characterize the four classes of metrological models that represent: quadratic-linear, quadratic-quadratic, linear-linear, and linear-quadratic time scalings. We also investigate the relevant time scales on which the transition between the two regimes appears. Additionally, we provide universal numerical methods to obtain quantitative bounds on sensitivity that are the tightest that exist in the literature. Simplicity and universality of our results make it suitable for diverse applications in quantum metrology.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Insights into the soft brittle-to-ductile transition from discrete dislocation dynamics

The Brittle-to-ductile transition (BDT) in body centered cubic metals exhibits a soft transition wherein the fracture toughness gradually rises to before the onset of ductility. The resultant brittle-to-ductile transition temperature can be described with an Arrhenius relationship whose activation energy is related to plasticity in the material. To provide further insight into the nature of the BDTT, in this work we utilized a discrete dislo- cation dynamics model with a crack to simulate the BDT and how it depends on the thermally activated nature of plasticity. The interrelationship between the BDT activation energy and the dislocation mobility parameters were determined via the calculation of first order sensitivity coefficients. This analysis allows us to demonstrate that the activation energy for the BDT is directly related to the activation energy for plasticity through an effective stress that defines this relationship. This effective stress physically is the average stress on the dislocations that move out of the crack. Lastly, we are able to show that this effective stress is dictated by the low temperature fracture toughness or cleave energy of the material and the source position, the latter of which can be affected by processing. Collectively, these results provide new insight into what controls the thermal activation of the BDT and what are the important parameters to control it.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of recent updates to neutrino oscillation parameters on the effective Majorana neutrino mass in 0 ν β β decay

We investigate how recent updates to neutrino oscillation parameters and the sum of neutrino masses influence the sensitivity of neutrinoless double-beta ( 0 ν β β ) decay experiments. Incorporating the latest cosmological constraints on the sum of neutrino masses and laboratory measurements on oscillations, we determine the sum of neutrino masses for both the normal hierarchy (NH) and the inverted hierarchy (IH). Our analysis reveals a narrow range for the sum of neutrino masses, approximately 0.06 eV / c 2 for NH and 0.102 eV / c 2 for IH. Utilizing these constraints, we calculate the effective Majorana masses for both NH and IH scenarios, establishing the corresponding allowed regions. Importantly, we find that the minimum neutrino mass is nonzero, as constrained by the current oscillation parameters. Additionally, we estimate the half-life of 0 ν β β decay using these effective Majorana masses for both NH and IH. Our results suggest that upcoming ton-scale experiments will comprehensively explore the IH scenario, while 100-ton-scale experiments will effectively probe the parameter space for the NH scenario, provided the background index can achieve 1 event/kton-year in the region of interest. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗