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DOE OSTI2024

Economic Parameter Uncertainty Quantification Demonstration

HERON has recently added uncertainty quantification capabilities for economic parameters. Users may now associate a distribution with certain cash flow parameters to simulate uncertainty in cost or other economic inputs. For example, a user may want to capture the uncertainty of capital expenditures of an advanced nuclear power plant because public data is hard to find or is not available yet. This new addition allows users to account for that uncertainty.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Determination of Neutrino Oscillation Parameters through the Feldman-Cousins Method by the NOvA Experiment

The NOvA experiment presents new measurements of the neutrino oscillation parameters obtained through a fit to data from the one megawatt NuMI neutrino beam in the NOvA detectors. The analysis uses muon-neutrino disappearance and electron-neutrino appearance in both neutrino and antineutrino beam polarities. With the addition of $\sim$ 100%\) more neutrino-mode beam exposure over the previously reported results, this analysis employs the unified approach of Feldman and Cousins to determine the confidence level intervals for the oscillation parameters $\theta_{23}, \delta_{CP}$, and $\Delta m_{32}^2$ for both neutrino mass orderings.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Parameter-Varying Hydrodynamic Model of a Single Vane in a Variable-Geometry Oscillating Surge Wave Energy Converter: Preprint

This paper presents a study on the time-varying hydrodynamic modeling of an individual flap of a variable geometry oscillating surge wave energy converter (VGOSWEC). The WEC design incorporates controlled surfaces that can modify their orientation relative to the wave motion, reducing hydrodynamic pressure and related loads. This research focuses on characterizing the behavior of the oscillating WEC using a simplified model and three methods for achieving a continuous time-variant model: discrete hydrodynamic parameters, interpolation of hydrodynamic parameters, and a fitting function. The results of this study contribute to the understanding of time-varying hydrodynamic effects in variable geometry oscillating WECs. The findings provide insights into the potential for reducing structural loads and improving the overall performance of such devices. Further research and development in this area could lead to advancements in WEC technologies, enabling their integration into the competitive energy market.

HYDRO ENERGY,TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2025

GeoLoRA: Geometric integration for parameter efficient fine-tuning

Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) has become a widely used method for parameter-efficient fine-tuning of large-scale, pre-trained neural networks. However, LoRA and its extensions face several challenges, including the need for rank adaptivity, robustness, and computational efficiency during the fine-tuning process. We introduce GeoLoRA, a novel approach that addresses these limitations by leveraging dynamical low-rank approximation theory. GeoLoRA requires only a single backpropagation pass over the small-rank adapters, significantly reducing computational cost as compared to similar dynamical low-rank training methods and making it faster than popular baselines such as AdaLoRA. This allows GeoLoRA to efficiently adapt the allocated parameter budget across the model, achieving smaller low-rank adapters compared to heuristic methods like AdaLoRA and LoRA, while maintaining critical convergence, descent, and error-bound theoretical guarantees. The resulting method is not only more efficient but also more robust to varying hyperparameter settings. We demonstrate the effectiveness of GeoLoRA on several state-of-the-art benchmarks, showing that it outperforms existing methods in both accuracy and computational efficiency.

Schotthoefer, Steffen [ORNL] (ORCID:00000002156965↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simulation-based inference for neutrino interaction model parameter tuning

High-energy physics experiments studying neutrinos rely heavily on simulations of their interactions with atomic nuclei. Limitations in the theoretical understanding of these interactions typically necessitate ad hoc tuning of simulation model parameters to data. Traditional tuning methods for neutrino experiments have largely relied on simple algorithms for numerical optimization. While adequate for the modest goals of initial efforts, the complexity of future neutrino tuning campaigns is expected to increase substantially, and new approaches will be needed to make progress. In this paper, we examine the application of simulation-based inference (SBI) to the neutrino interaction model tuning for the first time. Using a previous tuning study performed by the MicroBooNE experiment as a test case, we find that our SBI algorithm can correctly infer the tuned parameter values when confronted with a mock data set generated according to the MicroBooNE procedure. This initial proof-of-principle illustrates a promising new technique for next-generation simulation tuning campaigns for the neutrino experimental community.

Tame-Narvaez, Karla [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000022249↗

DOE OSTI2026

Latest Constraints on Three-Flavor Neutrino Oscillation Parameters from the NOvA Experiment

NOvA, is a two-detector, long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment located at Fermilab, Batavia, IL, USA. The NOvA experiment was designed primarily to constrain neutrino oscillation parameters by analyzing $\nu_\mu (\bar{\nu}_\mu)$ disappearance and $\nu_e (\bar{\nu}_e)$ appearance data observed at the far detector using a high purity beam of neutrinos and anti-neutrinos from Fermilab's NuMI beamline. The NOvA experiment consists of two functionally identical, finely granulated liquid tracking calorimeters, both situated 14.6 mrad off-axis to the beam direction. The NOvA near detector, situated 100 meters underground and 1 kilometer from the beam source, detects the non-oscillated $\nu_\mu (\bar{\nu}_\mu)$ and beam $\nu_e (\bar{\nu}_e)$ events. The far detector, located in Ash River, MN, USA, 810 kilometers from the beam source, records the non-oscillated $\nu_\mu (\bar{\nu}_\mu)$ and the oscillated $\nu_\mu (\bar{\nu}_\mu) \to \nu_e (\bar{\nu}_e)$ events. The most recent measurements of three flavor neutrino oscillation parameters based on an analysis of the data collected from neutrino-beam exposure of $26.60 \times 10^{20}$ POT and anti-neutrino beam exposure of $12.50\times 10^{20}$ POT including an additional low energy $\nu_e$ sample, will be discussed here.

Choudhary, Brajesh [Delhi U.] (ORCID:0000000150291↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling household-level party composition behavior for multiparty activities: a random parameter nested logit modeling approach

This study presents findings of a household-level party composition model for multiparty activities. It exploits data from a comprehensive Household Travel Survey conducted by Chicago Metropolitan Agency of Planning. The study estimates a random parameter nested logit model to capture households’ unobserved preference heterogeneity and non-proportional substitution patterns in terms of activity party composition for multiparty activities. A wide variety of household demographics, activity attributes and residential neighborhood characteristics are examined in this paper. The magnitude of the impacts of the determinants are tested in this study by analyzing the elasticity of the variables, which suggests that household demographics and attributes of the multiparty activities have significant effects on the household-level activity party composition. Residential neighborhood characteristics, although somewhat less impactful, still play a meaningful role. This model will be implemented within the POLARIS transportation systems simulator to improve the activity generation modeling workflow, and the prediction accuracy of various activity-travel components.

activity party composition↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fiber orientation and porosity in large-format extrusion process: The role of processing parameters

Controlling fiber orientation and porosity in short-fiber thermoplastic composites is important for enhancing mechanical, electrical and thermal properties in large-format additive manufacturing. This study employs a factorial design of experiments (DoE) to assess the effects of nozzle diameter (5.08 mm–10.16 mm), temperature (230–250 °C), and extruder screw speed (150–280 rpm) on flow rate, shear rate, porosity, fiber orientation, fiber length and tensile strength in 20 % carbon fiber-filled acrylonitrile butadiene styrene. ANOVA results show that screw speed significantly impacts flow rate, while nozzle diameter and temperature have lesser effects. Shear rate increases with smaller nozzles and higher speeds. Porosity decreases from 5.58 % with a 10.16 mm nozzle to 3.11 % with a 5.08 mm nozzle at 150 rpm due to increased shear rates, which induce shear thinning, reducing viscosity and facilitating gas escape. Larger nozzles (10.16 mm) produce larger, more heterogeneous pores, while smaller nozzles (5.08 mm) yield smaller, uniform pores. Beads produced with the 5.08 mm nozzle exhibit longer fiber lengths due to reduced residence time, lower shear stress, and better alignment. Fiber orientation improves with smaller nozzles due to higher shear rates but decreases with higher screw speeds (280 rpm) due to shorter residence times. The highest fiber alignment (A xx ∼ 0.65) and low porosity (∼3%) were achieved with a 5.08 mm nozzle at 150 rpm, while equivalent additive manufacturing-compression molding samples exhibited better tensile strength (∼93 MPa) under these conditions. In conclusion, these findings emphasize the importance of optimizing processing parameters to enhance fiber alignment and reduce porosity for improved mechanical performance.

Design of experiments↗

DOE OSTI2025

An implementation of neural simulation-based inference for parameter estimation in ATLAS

Neural simulation-based inference (NSBI) is a powerful class of machine-learning-based methods for statistical inference that naturally handles high-dimensional parameter estimation without the need to bin data into low-dimensional summary histograms. Such methods are promising for a range of measurements, including at the Large Hadron Collider, where no single observable may be optimal to scan over the entire theoretical phase space under consideration, or where binning data into histograms could result in a loss of sensitivity. This work develops a NSBI framework for statistical inference, using neural networks to estimate probability density ratios, which enables the application to a full-scale analysis. It incorporates a large number of systematic uncertainties, quantifies the uncertainty due to the finite number of events in training samples, develops a method to construct confidence intervals, and demonstrates a series of intermediate diagnostic checks that can be performed to validate the robustness of the method. As an example, the power and feasibility of the method are assessed on simulated data for a simplified version of an off-shell Higgs boson couplings measurement in the four-lepton final states. This approach represents an extension to the standard statistical methodology used by the experiments at the Large Hadron Collider, and can benefit many physics analyses.

frequentist statistics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Measuring σ 8 using DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys Emission-Line galaxies and Planck CMB lensing, and the impact of dust on parameter inference

Measuring the growth of structure is a powerful probe for studying the dark sector, especially in light of the σ 8 tension between primary CMB anisotropy and low-redshift surveys. This paper provides a new measurement of the amplitude of the matter power spectrum, σ 8 , using galaxy-galaxy and galaxy-CMB lensing power spectra of Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Legacy Imaging Surveys Emission-Line Galaxies and the Planck 2018 CMB lensing map. We create an ELG catalog composed of 24 million galaxies and with a purity of 85%, covering a redshift range 0 < z < 3, with z mean = 1.09. We implement several novel systematic corrections, such as jointly modeling the contribution of imaging systematics and photometric redshift uncertainties to the covariance matrix. We also study the impacts of various dust maps on cosmological parameter inference. We measure the cross-power spectra over f sky = 0.25 with a signal-to-background ratio of up to 30σ. We find that the choice of dust maps to account for imaging systematics in estimating the ELG overdensity field has a significant impact on the final estimated values of σ 8 and Ω M , with far-infrared emission-based dust maps preferring σ 8 to be as low as 0.702 ± 0.030, and stellar-reddening-based dust maps preferring as high as 0.719 ± 0.030. The highest preferred value is at ∼ 3 σ tension with the Planck primary anisotropy results. These findings indicate a need for tomographic analyses at high redshifts and joint modeling of systematics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: DR6 power spectra, likelihoods and ΛCDM parameters

We present power spectra of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy in temperature and polarization, measured from the Data Release 6 maps made from Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) data. These cover 19,000 deg 2 of sky in bands centered at 98, 150 and 220 GHz, with white noise levels three times lower than Planck in polarization. We find that the ACT angular power spectra estimated over 10,000 deg 2 , and measured to arcminute scales in TT, TE and EE, are well fit by the sum of CMB and foregrounds, where the CMB spectra are described by the ΛCDM model. Combining ACT with larger-scale Planck data, the joint P-ACT dataset provides tight limits on the ingredients, expansion rate, and initial conditions of the universe. We find similar constraining power, and consistent results, from either the Planck power spectra or from ACT combined with WMAP data, as well as from either temperature or polarization in the joint P-ACT dataset. When combined with CMB lensing from ACT and Planck, and baryon acoustic oscillation data from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI DR1), we measure a baryon density of Ω b h 2 = 0.0226 ± 0.0001, a cold dark matter density of Ω c h 2 = 0.118 ± 0.001, a Hubble constant of H 0 = 68.22 ± 0.36 km/s/Mpc, a spectral index of n s = 0.974 ± 0.003, and an amplitude of density fluctuations of σ 8 = 0.813 ± 0.005. Including the DESI DR2 data tightens the Hubble constant to H 0 = 68.43 ± 0.27 km/s/Mpc; ΛCDM parameters agree between the P-ACT and DESI DR2 data at the 1.6σ level. We find no evidence for excess lensing in the power spectrum, and no departure from spatial flatness. The contribution from Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) anisotropy is detected at high significance; we find evidence for a tilt with suppressed small-scale power compared to our baseline SZ template spectrum, consistent with hydrodynamical simulations with feedback.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cosmological parameter estimation with a joint-likelihood analysis of the cosmic microwave background and big bang nucleosynthesis

Here, we present a joint-likelihood analysis of big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) and cosmic microwave background (CMB) data, consistently combining likelihoods and taking into account uncertainties in nuclear reaction rates for the first time. Bayesian inference is performed on the baryon abundance and the effective number of neutrino species, 𝑁 eff , using a CMB Boltzmann solver in combination with LINX , a new flexible and efficient BBN code. We marginalize over Planck nuisance parameters and nuclear rates to find 𝑁 eff =3.0⁢8$^{+0.15}_{−0.14}$, 2.9⁢4$^{+0.16}_{−0.15}$, or 2.96$^{+0.13}_{−0.14}$, for three separate reaction networks. This framework enables robust testing of the lambda cold dark matter paradigm and its variants with CMB and BBN data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Insights into Slip-Rate Time Functions, Rupture Parameter Correlations, and Ground Motions from Validated Multicycle Earthquake Ruptures

Earthquake strong-motion predictions using kinematic source modeling require knowledge of the slip-rate functions (SRFs) along the rupture and their distinct characteristics in asperities, background (off-asperity) areas and near the surface. Here, in this study we analyzed SRFs from well-validated, self-consistent, and fully dynamic rupture models from earthquake cycles obeying a rate-and-state friction law, from our companion study (Galvez et al., 2021). The shapes of SRFs in asperities are well described by the regularized Yoffe function (RYF), which has only two parameters: rise time T r and smoothing time T s , which control the generation of long- and short-period ground motions, respectively. In background areas, we demonstrate that, in addition to the primary rupture, multiple secondary ruptures may also nucleate from rupture heterogeneities related to asperities, resulting in SRFs with multiple peaks. Because it is impossible to fit a multiple-peak SRF by the single-peak RYF, we describe SRFs in background areas in an effective way by fitting their amplitude spectra with the RYF spectra. Such spectrally effective RYFs capture salient aspects of seismic-wave generation and can be used in rupture generators for strong motion prediction. We found that small T s values correlate with small characteristic weakening distances, large peak slip rates (PSRs), and large rupture velocities. T r values are larger in background areas and smaller in asperities. Within the shallow aseismic zone, T s values approximately quadruple whereas T r values approximately double. Because of this dominant T s increase, PSR values decrease in the near-surface zone. These features indicate that the generation of strong motions by the near-surface portions of the rupture is negligible in the studied scenarios.

Geosciences↗

DOE OSTI2025

Turbulent Parameters by airborne measurements over BNF in March 2025

The original data were collected during the AAF Engineering Flights (AEF2025) in the vicinity of the ARM Bankhead National Forest (BNF) Atmospheric Observatory (https://www.arm.gov/capabilities/observatories/bnf ) in northwestern Alabama in March 2025. The ARM Aerial Facility ArcticShark uncrewed aerial system (UAS, https://www.arm.gov/capabilities/observatories/aaf/uas) was based at the public-use airport of Posey Field, Alabama (FAA LID: 1M4, 34.28027778° N, 87.60055556° W, 283m MSL) from March 10 through March 24, 2025. The ArcticShark UAS performed nine flights, including eight research flights over the AMF3 (BNF Main Site) and Supplemental Facilities to measure atmospheric state, turbulence, surface IR temperature and imagery, and aerosol number concentration and size distribution. The current data set presents a collection of turbulent parameters in the atmospheric boundary layer or lower free troposphere based on airborne measurement throughout the field campaign. The primary instruments used to create the current data set were the Aircraft Integrated Meteorological Measurement System (AIMMS-30) and the fine-wire thermocouple probe.

Atmosphere↗

DOE OSTI2025

CHELAX-BNF: Turbulent Parameters by airborne measurements

The original data were collected on board the ARM Aerial Facility ArcticShark uncrewed aerial system (UAS; https://www.arm.gov/capabilities/observatories/aaf/uas ) during the “Characterizing HEterogeneous Land-Atmosphere eXchanges at BNF” field campaign (CHEAX-BNF; https://arm.gov/research/campaigns/aaf2025CHELAX-BNF ). The ARM Aerial Facility ArcticShark UAS was based at the public-use airport of Posey Field, AL (FAA LID: 1M4, 34.28027778° N, 87.60055556° W, 283m MSL) from May 28 through June 23, 2025. The ArcticShark UAS performed 5 flights, including 4 research flights over the BNF Main Site (ARM Mobile Facility 3, https://arm.gov/capabilities/observatories/amf ) and Supplemental Facilities to measure atmospheric state, turbulence, surface IR temperature and imagery, aerosol number concentration, and aerosol size distribution. The current data set presents a collection of turbulent parameters in the atmospheric boundary layer or lower free troposphere based on airborne measurement throughout the field campaign. The primary instruments used to create the current data set were the Aircraft Integrated Meteorological Measurement System (AIMMS-30) and the fine-wire thermocouple probe.

Aircraft Integrated Meteorological Measurement Sys↗

DOE OSTI2024

Rapid Inverse Parameter Inference Using Physics-Informed Neural Network

As Li-ion batteries become more essential in today's economy, tools need to be developed to accurately and rapidly diagnose a battery's internal state-of-health. Using a Li-ion battery's (high-rate) voltage response, it is proposed to determine a battery's internal state through Bayesian calibration. However, Bayesian calibration is notoriously slow and requires thousands of model runs. To accelerate parameter inference using Bayesian calibration, a surrogate model is developed to replace the underlying physics-based Li-ion model. Developing a surrogate model for rapid Bayesian calibration analysis is discussed for both the single particle model (SPM) and the pseudo two-dimensional (P2D) model. Surrogate models are constructed using physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) that encode the influence of internal properties on observed voltage responses. In practice, a neural network can be trained by: 1) using simulation results of the physics-based model (i.e., a data-loss approach); 2) using the residuals of the governing equations themselves (i.e., a physics-loss approach); or 3) using a combination of simulation results and governing equation residuals. In the present work, PINNs are developed using a variety of training losses and neural network architectures. In this analysis, it is shown that a PINN surrogate model can be reliably trained with only physics-informed loss. However, using a coupled data-informed and physics-loss approach produced the most accurate PINNs.

Bayesian calibration↗

DOE OSTI2026

Speedup of UEDGE Parameter Scans Using Machine-Learning Optimized OpenMP Parallelization and a Continuation Solver

This article presents the OpenMP parallelization of the preconditioning Jacobian assembly and right‐hand side residual evaluation in UEDGE. A continuation algorithm, utilizing the internal NKSOL implicit Jacobian‐Free Newton‐Krylov solver to efficiently scan physical parameters, is also presented. The implemented parallelization reduces the computational time for a benchmark scan run on 32 threads by compared to the serial version when using trained random forest regression models to identify the optimal decomposition of the system of equations. Random forest regression models applied to the UEDGE time‐dependent and continuation solver algorithms did not yield meaningful improvement in computational performance. A benchmark DIII‐D gas injection rate scan in the 0.35–0.75 kA interval, performed on a test cluster using the parallelized code and continuation solver, produced 1066 steady‐state solutions with a 22 s average wall‐clock computational time per steady‐state solution.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Tracking discontinuities in parameter space

We develop a geometric framework in Feynman-parameter space to determine constraints on the sequential discontinuities of Feynman integrals. Our method is based on tracking the deformation of the integration contour as external kinematics are analytically continued. This procedure imposes powerful constraints on the analytic structure of Feynman integrals, providing crucial inputs for their bootstrap. We demonstrate the usefulness of this framework by applying it to integrals in dimensional regularization, with higher propagator powers, and to examples with non-uniform transcendental weight. The method is illustrated with several one- and two-loop calculations.

Differential and Algebraic Geometry↗