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At least 217 records · Page 12

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DOE OSTI2020

Numerical wave modeling for operational and survival analyses of wave energy converters at the US Navy Wave Energy Test Site in Hawaii

The US Navy Wave Energy Test Site (WETS) is currently operating three grid-connected berths off Marine Corps Base Hawaii in support of technological development through scaled-model testing and pre-commercial prototyping. The location on the east shore of Oahu is open to year-round wind waves and seasonal north swells as well as severe seas from subtropical systems and hurricanes. We have assembled a spectral wave model system comprising WAVEWATCH III and SWAN on a hierarchy of global, regional, and nearshore computational grids. With wind forcing from global forecast and rean-alysis datasets as well as their regional downscaling, the system produces operational 7-day wave forecasts and a long-term hindcast. The daily forecasts, validated with real-time buoy measurements, facilitate safe deployment, operation, and retrieval of wave energy converters (WECs). The wave hindcast from 1979 to 2017 defines the intra- and inter-annual variations for statistical analysis of sea states and energy resources. Due to limited occurrences of hurricanes in Hawaii waters, their wind forcing is determined parametrically with simulated tracks from climate model downscaling. Finally, systematic analysis of the hindcast and simulation datasets provides significant wave heights from trade winds, swells, subtropical systems, and hurricanes with return periods up to 100 years for WECs survival analysis.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2024

Principles of two-dimensional terahertz spectroscopy of collective excitations: The case of Josephson plasmons in layered superconductors

Two-dimensional terahertz spectroscopy (2DTS), a terahertz analog of nuclear magnetic resonance, is a new technique poised to address many open questions in complex condensed matter systems. The conventional theoretical framework used ubiquitously for interpreting multidimensional spectra of discrete quantum level systems is, however, insufficient for the continua of collective excitations in strongly correlated materials. Here, in this work, we develop a theory for 2DTS of a model collective excitation, the Josephson plasma resonance in layered superconductors. Starting from a mean-field approach at temperatures well below the superconducting phase transition, we obtain expressions for the multidimensional nonlinear responses that are amenable to intuition derived from the conventional single-mode scenario. We then consider temperatures near the superconducting critical temperature T c , where dynamics beyond mean-field become important and conventional intuition fails. As fluctuations proliferate near T c , the dominant contribution to nonlinear response comes from an optical parametric drive of counterpropagating Josephson plasmons, which gives rise to 2D spectra that are qualitatively different from the mean-field predictions. As such, and in contrast to one-dimensional spectroscopy techniques, such as third harmonic generation, 2DTS can be used to directly probe thermally excited finite-momentum plasmons and their interactions. Our theory can readily be tested in cuprates, and we discuss implications beyond the present context of Josephson plasmons.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity-Driven Experimental Design to Facilitate Control of Dynamical Systems

Control of nonlinear dynamical systems is a complex and multifaceted process. Essential elements of many engineering systems include high-fidelity physics-based modeling, offline trajectory planning, feedback control design, and data acquisition strategies to reduce uncertainties. Here this article proposes an optimization-centric perspective which couples these elements in a cohesive framework. We introduce a novel use of hyper-differential sensitivity analysis to understand the sensitivity of feedback controllers to parametric uncertainty in physics-based models used for trajectory planning. These sensitivities provide a foundation to define an optimal experimental design which seeks to acquire data most relevant in reducing demand on the feedback controller. Our proposed framework is illustrated on the Zermelo navigation problem and a hypersonic trajectory control problem using data from NASA’s X-43 hypersonic flight tests.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Development of pebble-based extruded carbon rods for extreme plasma heat flux environments

This work presents first experiments toward the development of continuously renewable (extrudable) pebble-based carbon rods for use as plasma-facing components in extreme steady-state plasma flux environments. The primary envisioned application of this work is a first wall that can survive long-term in future magnetic fusion power reactors while also improving recovery of the reactor fuel (tritium and deuterium atoms). Bench tests applying extreme steady-state front-surface heat loads of up to 50 MW/m 2 are presented. Continuous pebble rod front-surface recession and intact pebble recovery are successfully demonstrated, at a rate of order 0.2 cm/s. Numerical simulations of the pebble rod front-surface recession are able to match observations reasonably well, indicating that the recession mechanism can be understood as occurring due to pebble thermal expansion and resulting shock and cracking of the inter-pebble binder. Tests of the pebble rod extrusion demonstrate that friction between the rods and the stainless-steel extrusion channel is tolerably low (<50 N for the expected channel length) over a wide range of temperatures. Front-surface outgassing rates below 1000 Torr L/s/m 2 are achieved, believed to be sufficiently low for use in magnetic fusion reactors. In conclusion, initial parametric scans over pebble rod size and binder fraction to vary front-surface recession rates are presented.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

The merger fraction of post-starburst galaxies in UNIONS

ABSTRACT Post-starburst galaxies (PSBs) are defined as having experienced a recent burst of star formation, followed by a prompt truncation in further activity. Identifying the mechanism(s) causing a galaxy to experience a post-starburst phase therefore provides integral insight into the causes of rapid quenching. Galaxy mergers have long been proposed as a possible post-starburst trigger. Effectively testing this hypothesis requires a large spectroscopic galaxy survey to identify the rare PSBs as well as high-quality imaging and robust morphology metrics to identify mergers. We bring together these critical elements by selecting PSBs from the overlap of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and the Canada–France Imaging Survey and applying a suite of classification methods: non-parametric morphology metrics such as asymmetry and Gini-M20, a convolutional neural network trained to identify post-merger galaxies, and visual classification. This work is therefore the largest and most comprehensive assessment of the merger fraction of PSBs to date. We find that the merger fraction of PSBs ranges from 19 per cent to 42 per cent depending on the merger identification method and details of the PSB sample selection. These merger fractions represent an excess of 3–46× relative to non-PSB control samples. Our results demonstrate that mergers play a significant role in generating PSBs, but that other mechanisms are also required. However, applying our merger identification metrics to known post-mergers in the IllustrisTNG simulation shows that 70 per cent of recent post-mergers (≲200 Myr) would not be detected. Thus, we cannot exclude the possibility that nearly all PSBs have undergone a merger in their recent past.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

THERMAL MODELING OF HANFORD LEAD CANISTER’S HEATER BENCH TESTS

A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was built to simulate planned testing of heater assemblies for the Hanford Lead Canister (HLC) project. The HLC is a canister storage system that will contain heaters to simulate the decay heat of nuclear material and provide the canister storage system with environmental conditions equivalent to the operating conditions on a dry storage pad. The HLC will be equipped with long-term data collection and monitoring systems to provide an early warning of corrosion, pitting, cracking, or other signs of canister degradation that might threaten the integrity of the containment boundary over the potentially long term of dry storage. An important part of the HLC development is to confirm the function and ability of the electric heater assemblies that were specially designed to provide heating similar to the decay heat of nuclear material contained within the canister storage system. Heater bench testing is planned for early 2022 in a test configuration that does not include the canister. The goal of the bench testing is to verify that the heaters can replicate the decay heat of a canister with nuclear material and to validate the thermal models, which are critical to understanding the HLC’s thermal environment, including the local air flow within the canister storage system. Testing of the heater assemblies inside the canister system are planned in the future to validate canister level thermal models, and rigorous pre-deployment testing of the complete HLC cask and canister system is intended to be completed before the HLC is deployed in the 2025-2026 timeframe. This study presents the pre-test temperature predictions of the bench testing. A description of the heater assemblies and planned bench testing is presented. The model was developed with the commercial CFD code STAR-CCM+. An uncertainty analysis was run with the CFD model to determine the uncertainty in the temperature predictions and provide a range over which the predicted temperatures are expected to vary. The uncertainty analysis was performed by coupling STAR-CCM+ with the software Dakota, which provides advanced parametric analyses, including quantification of margins and uncertainty with computational models. This work is expected to provide insight into SNF canister behavior.

Suffield, Sarah R.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Survival analysis of localized prostate cancer with deep learning

In recent years, data-driven, deep-learning-based models have shown great promise in medical risk prediction. By utilizing the large-scale Electronic Health Record data found in the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, the largest integrated healthcare system in the United States, we have developed an automated, personalized risk prediction model to support the clinical decision-making process for localized prostate cancer patients. This method combines the representative power of deep learning and the analytical interpretability of parametric regression models and can implement both time-dependent and static input data. To collect a comprehensive evaluation of model performances, we calculate time-dependent C-statistics C td over 2-, 5-, and 10-year time horizons using either a composite outcome or prostate cancer mortality as the target event. The composite outcome combines the Prostate-Specific Antigen (PSA) test, metastasis, and prostate cancer mortality. Our longitudinal model Recurrent Deep Survival Machine (RDSM) achieved C td 0.85 (0.83), 0.80 (0.83), and 0.76 (0.81), while the cross-sectional model Deep Survival Machine (DSM) attained C td 0.85 (0.82), 0.80 (0.82), and 0.76 (0.79) for the 2-, 5-, and 10-year composite (mortality) outcomes, respectively. In addition to estimating the survival probability, our method can quantify the uncertainty associated with the prediction. The uncertainty scores show a consistent correlation with the prediction accuracy. We find PSA and prostate cancer stage information are the most important indicators in risk prediction. Our work demonstrates the utility of the data-driven machine learning model in prostate cancer risk prediction, which can play a critical role in the clinical decision system.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Analysis of the HAE activity in the TJ-II stellarator using a Landau closure model

The aim of this study is to analyze the stability of helical Alfvén eigenmodes (HAEs) in TJ-II discharges and the stabilizing effect of the energetic particles generated by the neutral beam injector (NBI) on pressure gradient-driven modes (PGDMs). HAE and PGDM stability is studied using the linear version of the gyro-fluid code FAR3d and the continuous structure by the STELLGAP code. First, Alfvén eigenmode (AE) and PGDM activity observed in the experiments is reproduced by the simulations, identifying unstable m/n = 4/7 − 2/3 and 7/12 − 5/8 HAEs triggered around ρ = 0.66 showing a frequency of 209 and 204 kHz, respectively, as well as 5/3 PGDM. Next, a parametric study is performed with respect to the thermal ion density and iota profile in the middle-outer plasma region to verify the robustness of the simulation results with respect to the uncertainty of experimental profiles. The analysis confirms that experimental uncertainty does not cause large deviations in the simulation results, showing the destabilization of the same HAEs for all the configurations tested. The simulations also indicate the decay of the 5/3 PGDM growth rate as the energetic particle (EP) population in the plasma increases, consistent with the experiment. Stability analysis of the n = 3, 7, 11, n = 5, 9, 13, n = 6, 10, 14, and n = 8, 12 helical families is performed with respect to the NBI operational regime for different EP energies, β as well as deposition profiles. The most unstable configuration is the radially localized on-axis NBI operation (stiff EP density profile gradients nearby the magnetic axis). Using the simulation model that reproduces the observed Alfvén activity, we extend the study to analyze NBI performance within a theoretical framework. It shows that increasing NBI voltage (which raises EP energy) leads to a degradation in NBI performance for a given power (related to EP β and their density). To achieve better NBI operation, higher voltage must be balanced with lower injection power, ensuring stable AEs while keeping the same EP β.

Plasma confinement↗

DOE OSTI2024

Measurement of Angular Coefficients of B ¯ → D * ℓ ν ¯ ℓ : Implications for | V c b | and Tests of Lepton Flavor Universality

We measure the complete set of angular coefficients J i for exclusive B ¯ → D * ℓ ν ¯ ℓ decays ( ℓ = e , μ ). Our analysis uses the full 711 fb − 1 Belle dataset with hadronic tag-side reconstruction. The results allow us to extract the form factors describing the B ¯ → D * transition and the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa matrix element | V cb | . Using recent lattice QCD calculations for the hadronic form factors, we find | V cb | = ( 40.7 ± 0.7 ) × 10 − 3 using the Boyd-Grinstein-Lebed parametrization, compatible with determinations from inclusive semileptonic decays. We search for lepton flavor universality violation as a function of the hadronic recoil parameter w and investigate the differences of the electron and muon angular distributions. We find no deviation from standard model expectations. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Selecting durable building envelope systems with machine learning assisted hygrothermal simulations database

Hygrothermal simulations provide insight into the energy performance and moisture durability of building envelope components under dynamic conditions. The inputs required for hygrothermal simulations are extensive, and carrying out simulations and analyses requires expert knowledge. An expert system, the Building Science Advisor (BSA), has been developed to predict the performance and select the energy-efficient and durable building envelope systems for different climates. The BSA consists of decision rules based on expert opinions and thousands of parametric simulation results for selected wall systems. The number of potential wall systems results in millions, too many to simulate all of them. We present how machine learning can help predict durability data, such as mold growth, while minimizing the number of simulations needed to run. The simulation results are used for training and validation of machine learning tools for predicting wall durability. We tested Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Gradient Boosted Decision Trees (GBDT) for their applicability and model accuracy. Models developed with both methods showed adequate prediction performance (root mean square error of 0.195 and 0.209, respectively). Finally, we introduce how the information supports guidance for envelope design via an easy-to-use web-based tool that does not require the end-user to run hygrothermal simulations.

Salonvaara, Mikael↗

DOE OSTI2026

Lyapunov-Based Iterative Learning of Regions of Attraction for Autonomous Systems

This paper proposes a novel algorithm for estimating the region of attraction of equilibrium points for nonlinear discrete-time autonomous systems. The method iteratively expands an initial estimate of the region of attraction by constructing unions of sublevel sets of learned functions parametrized as neural networks. Unlike conventional techniques that rely on a single global Lyapunov function, the proposed approach provides a collection of local Lyapunov-like functions, enabling richer representations and potentially larger region of attraction estimates. These functions are trained using sampled state-space data, and their Lipschitz continuity ensures that desirable properties extend beyond the training samples. The devised strategy is tested via numerical simulations, demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Lyapunov-Based Iterative Learning of the Region of Attraction for Autonomous Systems

This presentation introduces a novel algorithm for estimating the region of attraction of equilibrium points for nonlinear discrete-time autonomous systems. The method iteratively expands an initial estimate of the region of attraction by constructing unions of sublevel sets of learned functions parametrized as neural networks. Unlike conventional techniques that rely on a single global Lyapunov function, the proposed approach provides a collection of local Lyapunov-like functions, enabling richer representations and potentially larger region of attraction estimates. These functions are trained using sampled state-space data, and their Lipschitz continuity ensures that desirable properties extend beyond the training samples. The devised strategy is tested via numerical simulations, demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Chromium-coated cladding analysis under simulated LOCA burst conditions

Of the near-term accident-tolerant fuel concepts identified, chromium coatings have been shown to slow cladding oxidation without altering fuel system geometry or greatly affecting neutronic performance. To identify how coated cladding tubes perform under high-temperature accident conditions, pressurized-tube burst tests were conducted in the Severe Accident Test Station at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. To analyze how the coating affects cladding behavior, coated and uncoated cladding burst tests were simulated by using the BISON fuel performance code. Thermocouple data from these tests were fit into axial and azimuthal profiles and combined to generate 3D cladding surface temperatures, and pressure transducer data were compared until cladding failure. Additionally, the cladding temperatures at failure and the internal gas pressure evolution show relatively good agreement between the simulation and experiment results. Simulations were then extrapolated to demonstrate the coatings effectiveness to increasing the cladding burst temperature by using a parametric evaluation of the initial tube gas pressure. This work demonstrates the possibility of an increased cladding failure margin under transient conditions due to the addition of chromium coating, and more pertinently, an increased cladding failure margin from more accurate experimental characterization.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis for SPERT III E-core reactivity measurement benchmarking

The Special Power Excursion Reactor Test (SPERT) III E-core experiment is important because it provides critical data on reactor behavior under significant reactivity insertions, which is essential for validating computer simulations and ensuring the safety of modern light water reactors. Its design similarities to contemporary reactors make it a valuable resource for understanding and mitigating extreme hazards in nuclear operations. The current study details the application of formal parametric uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis to a model of the SPERT-III E-core model for zero power reactivity benchmarking. Additionally, the reactivity impact from various modeling assumptions is quantified. Overall, an conservative estimate for an uncertainty in k$_{\text{eff}}$ of $\pm$1257 was observed. A less conservative, more realistic, uncertainty estimate of $\pm$1096 pcm can be justified by the potential for various parametric uncertainties to become negligible when sampled independently across the ~1400 pins in the core. The experimental results fall within both of these uncertainty bounds. Standardized regression coefficient as well as Sobol indices are used to identify the guide tube thicknesses as the primary contributors to the uncertainty in k$_{\text{eff}}$. Overall, this study provides information on how the uncertainties in input parameters and modeling methods impact simulated k$_{\text{eff}}$ values and can be used to aid model building efforts for future code validation with the SPERT-III E-core experiment.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

An analysis of parameter compression and Full-Modeling techniques with Velocileptors for DESI 2024 and beyond

In anticipation of forthcoming data releases of current and future spectroscopic surveys, we present the validation tests and analysis of systematic effects within velocileptors modeling pipeline when fitting mock data from the AbacusSummit N-body simulations. We compare the constraints obtained from parameter compression methods to the direct fitting (Full-Modeling) approaches of modeling the galaxy power spectra, and show that the ShapeFit extension to the traditional template method is consistent with the Full-Modeling method within the standard ΛCDM parameter space. We show the dependence on scale cuts when fitting the different redshift bins using the ShapeFit and Full-Modeling methods. We test the ability to jointly fit data from multiple redshift bins as well as joint analysis of the pre-reconstruction power spectrum with the post-reconstruction BAO correlation function signal. We further demonstrate the behavior of the model when opening up the parameter space beyond ΛCDM and also when combining likelihoods with external datasets, namely the Planck CMB priors. Finally, we describe different parametrization options for the galaxy bias, counterterm, and stochastic parameters, and employ the halo model in order to physically motivate suitable priors that are necessary to ensure the stability of the perturbation theory.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Trust-Region Approximation of Extreme Trajectories in Power System Dynamics

In this work we present a novel technique, based on a trust-region optimization algorithm and second-order trajectory sensitivities, to compute the extreme trajectories of power system dynamic simulations given a bounded set that represents parametric uncertainty. Furthermore, we show how this method, while remaining computationally efficient compared with sampling-based techniques, overcomes the limitations of previous sensitivity-based techniques to approximate the bounds of the trajectories when the local approximation loses validity because of the nonlinearity. We present several numerical experiments that showcase the accuracy and scalability of the technique, including a demonstration on the IEEE New England test system.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Unraveling nonperturbative QCD with transverse momentum hadronic structures

The main purpose of this thesis is to investigate the theoretical foundations of the factorization theorems that involve transverse quark and gluon momentum distributions, and to better understand the interface between foundational questions and phenomenological applications. Many of these applications involve using transverse parton momentum dependent (TMD) correlation functions as tools for probing the complex nonperturbative structures of the hadrons. We first introduce the concepts of collinear and TMD factorization in a toy-model theory and, by leveraging the comparative simplicity of such a model, we test the range of validity and limitations of the factorization approach. At the same time, we introduce the conventional approaches that are adopted for the phenomenological extractions of the TMD distributions, and catalog the advantages and disadvantages. Following the general theoretical framework of factorization, we then develop a different approach to TMD phenomenology that is able to systematically integrate the perturbative and non perturbative information in parametrizations of TMD distributions, while being completely consistent with their operator definitions and the predictions of QCD, including their nontrivial evolution. The name Hadron Structure Oriented approach, or HSO, is coined in order to emphasize the central role of the nonperturbative nature of QCD and its relation to the partonic structure of hadrons. Finally, we provide a first phenomenological implementation of the HSO approach by extracting TMD distributions relying on low-to-moderate energy Drell-Yan data. The quality and robustness of the results are then compared against higher energy processes like high-Q2 Z0 boson production. Our analysis demonstrates the feasibility of this novel approach and points the way toward the improvements it can achieve in future applications.

Rainaldi, Tommaso [Old Dominion Univ., Norfolk, VA↗

DOE OSTI2022

Application of the Continuum Damage Mechanics Wilshire-Cano-Stewart (WCS) Model

In this study, the applications of the continuum damage mechanics-based Wilshire-Cano-Stewart (WCS) model are explored to predict rupture time, minimum-creep-strain-rate (MCSR), damage, damage evolution, and creep deformation. Increase knowledge in manufacturing methods has pushed the limit of material science and the development of new materials. Conventional testing is required to qualify materials against creep which according to the ASME B&PV III code, 10,000+ hours of experiments are necessary for each heat before materials are put into service. This process is costly and not feasible for new materials. As an alternative, models have been employed to predict creep behaviors and reduce the amount of time necessary for material qualification. Many models have been developed to predict distinct creep behaviors and the question of which model is best remains. Amongst current models, the WCS model has emerge with the ability to predict multiple behaviors using an explicit analytical approach with the ability to predict long-term creep. In this study the novel continuum damage mechanics WCS is employed in multiple applications. The goals of the study are (a) to discuss and determine the framework of the WCS model and validated it mathematically and using parametric simulations, (b) applied the model to accelerated creep data to show the capabilities of the model with non-conventional data, and (c) applied a novel numerical method, the datum temperature method (DTM) to show the model extrapolations and interpolations capabilities with limited and reduce data sets. To accomplish these goals, data is gathered for alloy P91 and Inconel 718 to develop and post-audit validate the model. The benefits of using the WCS model is that it provides an explicit stress and temperature dependency ideal for extrapolations, the coupled equations are suitable for finite element analysis (FEA) implementation, and it follows an explicit calibration approach. The model also proves that it can be applied to accelerated testing data and using the DTM.

Cano, Jaime A↗