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Results for “persistence models”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2020

Asymmetric Surface Brightness Structure of Caustic Crossing Arc in SDSS J1226+2152: A Case for Dark Matter Substructure

We study the highly magnified arc SGAS J122651.3+215220 caused by a star-forming galaxy at z s = 2.93 crossing the lensing caustic cast by the galaxy cluster SDSS J1226+2152 (z l = 0.43), using Hubble Space Telescope observations. We report in the arc several asymmetric surface brightness features whose angular separations are a fraction of an arcsecond from the lensing critical curve and appear to be highly but unequally magnified image pairs of underlying compact sources, with one brightest pair having clear asymmetry consistently across four filters. One explanation of unequal magnification is microlensing by intracluster stars, which induces independent flux variations in the images of individual or groups of source stars in the lensed galaxy. For a second possibility, intracluster dark matter subhaloes invisible to telescopes effectively perturb lensing magnifications near the critical curve and give rise to persistently unequal image pairs. Our modelling suggests, at least for the most prominent identified image pair, that the microlensing hypothesis is in tension with the absence of notable asymmetry variation over a six-year baseline, while subhaloes of ∼10 6 –10 8 \Mꙩ anticipated from structure formation with cold dark matter typically produce stationary and sizable asymmetries. We judge that observations at additional times and more precise lens models are necessary to stringently constrain temporal variability and robustly distinguish between the two explanations. The arc under this study is a scheduled target of a Director’s Discretionary Early Release Science program of the James Webb Space Telescope, which will provide deep images and a high-resolution view with integral field spectroscopy.

Liang Dai↗
NASA NTRS1989

Evolutionary models of the rotating sun

A new rotating stellar evolution code is developed and applied to the sun. A hydrostatic fully convective premain-sequence model is evolved to the age of the sun. As the model evolves, it accounts for angular-momentum loss via a magnetic wind and angular-momentum redistribution by rotationally induced instabilities. The resulting models have an oblateness in agreement with observed upper limits. The rotation curves show two main features: the outer layers exhibit minimal radial differential rotation, and a rapidly rotating central core is preserved. These basic features persist through a wide range of model parameters.

Pinsonneault, M. H.↗
NASA NTRS1987

On producing an alloy of uniform composition during rapid solidification processing

The fundamental mechanisms responsible for both micro scale and macro scale compositional variations during cellular and dendritic solidification are discussed. It is shown that presently available models for cellular and dendritic growth in alloys predict only the elimination of macrosegregation during rapid solidification but that microsegregation still persists even in this regime. A simple model is proposed here to describe the complete elimination of microsegregation in the rapid solidification regime. A solid of ideally uniform composition can be produced with no micro or macro segregation at both very low large solidifation rates.

Laxmanan, V.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling the dynamic response of rock masses with multiple compliant fluid saturated joint sets - Part II: Continuum modeling

Part I of this two-part paper describes enhancements of a mesoscale model to include: many non-persistent fluid saturated joints with finite area, normal compliance with hysteresis and the weakening effects of angular deviation in the joint sets and of fluid pressure in the joints. The objective of this Part II is to use the results of the mesoscale model as simulated data to inspire functional forms in a continuum model for rock masses with multiple compliant fluid saturated joint sets which include these enhancements. Also, an algorithm is proposed for reducing the number of joint sets being modeled. Examples are presented here which show that the continuum model can predict similar anisotropic response to that observed in mesoscale simulations. In contrast with the mesoscale model, the continuum model can be used for large scale simulations of real applications, smoothly transitioning from coupled inelastic thermomechanical response near an explosive source to orthotropic elastic response far from the source.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Robustness of topological persistence in knowledge distillation for wearable sensor data

Topological data analysis (TDA) has shown great success in various applications involving wearable sensor data. However, there are difficulties in leveraging topological features in machine learning and wearable sensors because of the large time consumption and computational resources required to extract the features. To address this problem, knowledge distillation (KD) is utilized to generate a small model and accommodate topological features with persistence image (PI) representations from the raw time series data. Deploying topological knowledge in KD enables the student to achieve better performance compared to the one trained solely on raw time series data. However, it is not yet known if there are coherent characteristics for topological features in PI, which can aid in improving the performance during KD. In this paper, we investigate the suitability and challenges of utilizing topological features in KD for wearable sensor data, thereby contributing to the advancement of the field. Our study explores the impact of transferred topological features by comparing the Teacher-to-Student framework with Multiple Teachers-to-Student where teachers utilize both time series data and persistence images obtained by TDA as inputs. Additionally, we conduct a rigorous examination of topological knowledge effects by testing under various corruptions, knowledge types, and learning strategies in the context of human activity recognition tasks. Our analysis of topological features in KD presents the optimal strategy for incorporating these features. This study includes datasets of varying scales, window lengths, and activity classes, providing a comprehensive evaluation. Our results demonstrate that leveraging topological features in KD to enhance performance across databases.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

An Open-source Llm Enhanced-tool Specialized In Helping Moose Related Problems And Tasks

MOOSEenger is an open-source, terminal-first chat application for the MOOSE ecosystem that couples specialized parsing of MOOSE documentation and “.i” input files with retrieval-augmented generation to deliver grounded answers about multiphysics modeling and workflows. It includes dedicated readers for MOOSE-style HTML and a pyhit-based parser that uses the MOOSE syntax tree to preserve block structure and attach retrieval metadata. A data-ingestion pipeline performs semantic chunking into atomic facts and stores them hierarchically in a local Chroma vector database that maintains parent–child relationships across documents; the system can ingest directories, individual files, and single-page web content, and it provides CRUD operations (insert, update, delete) to manage the corpus. At query time, relevant chunks are embedded, retrieved, and fused into the model context, with interactive features such as token streaming, persistent chat history, and dynamic RAG (retrieval triggered by user input or intermediate model output). Deployment is flexible: MOOSEenger runs with local Ollama models or remote Hugging Face/OpenAI backends—typically coordinating generation, lightweight tagging/summarization, and embeddings across three models—and it also supports a server mode and integration with the VS Code Continue interface.

Li, Mengnan [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Idah↗
DOE OSTI2022

Limitations of reanalysis data for wind power applications

Wind energy resource estimates commonly depend on simulated wind speed profiles generated by reanalysis or weather models due to the lack of long time series measurements with sufficient coverage at relevant heights (roughly 90 m above ground). However, modeled data, including reanalyses, can be noisy and display a wide range of biases and errors, variously attributed to terrain effects, poor coverage of assimilated inputs, and model resolution. Wind generation records, if available at high temporal and geographical resolution, can provide a proxy for wind measurements and allow for evaluation of reanalyses and weather model wind time series. We use a 7-year-long data set of hourly, plant-level generation records from over 100 wind plants across Texas to evaluate two commonly used reanalysis data sets (MERRA2 and ERA5). Additionally, we use 1-year of records (2019) to evaluate an operational, high-resolution regional weather modeling product (HRRR v3). We find that across the region, and across all modeling products, the modeled representation of wind generation (i.e., wind speeds at hub heights passed through a power curve) has relatively small mean errors when aggregated daily, but that accuracy and hourly correlation have a strong diurnal sensitivity. Accuracy and correlation systematically decline through the evening and markedly improve after sunrise. These diurnal patterns persist even in the highest resolution model tested (HRRR v3). We hypothesize the nighttime decline in accuracy is mostly due to poorly represented boundary layer conditions, perhaps related to model representation of stability, while other uncertainties (such as wake effects) play a secondary role.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning for postprocessing ensemble streamflow forecasts

Skillful streamflow forecasts can inform decisions in various areas of water policy and management. We integrate numerical weather prediction ensembles, distributed hydrological model, and machine learning to generate ensemble streamflow forecasts at medium-range lead times (1–7 days). We demonstrate the application of machine learning as postprocessor for improving the quality of ensemble streamflow forecasts. Our results show that the machine learning postprocessor can improve streamflow forecasts relative to low-complexity forecasts (e.g., climatological and temporal persistence) as well as standalone hydrometeorological modeling and neural network. The relative gain in forecast skill from postprocessor is generally higher at medium-range timescales compared to shorter lead times; high flows compared to low–moderate flows, and the warm season compared to the cool ones. Overall, our results highlight the benefits of machine learning in many aspects for improving both the skill and reliability of streamflow forecasts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2000

Dynamic Investigation of Static Divergence: Analysis and Testing

The phenomenon known as aeroelastic divergence is the focus of this work. The analyses and experiment presented here show that divergence can occur without a structural dynamic mode losing its oscillatory nature. Aeroelastic divergence occurs when the structural restorative capability or stiffness of a structure is overwhelmed by the static aerodynamic moment. This static aeroelastic coupling does not require the structural dynamic system behavior to cease, however. Aeroelastic changes in the dynamic mode behavior are governed not only by the stiffness, but by damping and inertial properties. The work presented here supports these fundamental assertions by examining a simple system: a typical section airfoil with only a rotational structural degree of freedom. Analytical results identified configurations that exhibit different types of dynamic mode behavior as the system encounters divergence. A wind tunnel model was designed and tested to examine divergence experimentally. The experimental results validate the analytical calculations and explicitly examine the divergence phenomenon where the dynamic mode persists. Three configurations of the wind tunnel model were tested. The experimental results agree very well with the analytical predictions of subcritical characteristics, divergence velocity, and behavior of the noncritical dynamic mode at divergence.

Heeg, Jennifer↗
DOE OSTI2020

Technical note: Deep learning for creating surrogate models of precipitation in Earth system models

Abstract. We investigate techniques for using deep neural networks to produce surrogatemodels for short-term climate forecasts. A convolutional neural network istrained on 97 years of monthly precipitation output from the 1pctCO2 run (theCO 2 concentration increases by 1 % per year) simulated by the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2). The neural network clearly outperforms a persistence forecast anddoes not show substantially degraded performance even when the forecast lengthis extended to 120 months. The model is prone to underpredicting precipitationin areas characterized by intense precipitation events. Scheduled sampling(forcing the model to gradually use its own past predictions rather than groundtruth) is essential for avoiding amplification of early forecasting errors.However, the use of scheduled sampling also necessitates preforecasting(generating forecasts prior to the first forecast date) to obtain adequateperformance for the first few prediction time steps. We document the trainingprocedures and hyperparameter optimization process for researchers who wish toextend the use of neural networks in developing surrogate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Large Source of Cloud Condensation Nuclei from New Particle Formation in the Tropics

Cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) can affect cloud properties and therefore the Earth’s radiative balance. New particle formation (NPF) from condensable vapours in the free troposphere has been suggested to contribute to CCN, especially in remote, pristine atmospheric regions, but direct evidence is sparse, and the magnitude of this contribution is uncertain. Here we use in-situ aircraft measurements of vertical profiles of aerosol size distributions to present a global-scale survey of NPF occurrence. We observed intense NPF occurring at high altitude in tropical convective regions over both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Together with the results of chemical-transport models, our findings indicate that NPF persists at all longitudes as a global-scale band in the tropical upper troposphere, covering about 40% of the Earth’s surface. Furthermore, we find that this NPF in the tropical upper troposphere is a globally important source of CCN in the lower troposphere, where they can affect cloud properties. Our findings suggest that the production of CCN, as these new particles descend towards the surface, is currently not adequately captured in global models, because they tend to underestimate both the magnitude of tropical upper tropospheric NPF and the subsequent growth to CCN sizes. This has potential implications for cloud albedo and the global radiative balance.

Atmospheric chemistry↗
NASA NTRS2010

Aircraft Trajectory Optimization and Contrails Avoidance in the Presence of Winds

There are indications that persistent contrails can lead to adverse climate change, although the complete effect on climate forcing is still uncertain. A flight trajectory optimization algorithm with fuel and contrails models, which develops alternative flight paths, provides policy makers the necessary data to make tradeoffs between persistent contrails mitigation and aircraft fuel consumption. This study develops an algorithm that calculates wind-optimal trajectories for cruising aircraft while avoiding the regions of airspace prone to persistent contrails formation. The optimal trajectories are developed by solving a non-linear optimal control problem with path constraints. The regions of airspace favorable to persistent contrails formation are modeled as penalty areas that aircraft should avoid and are adjustable. The tradeoff between persistent contrails formation and additional fuel consumption is investigated, with and without altitude optimization, for 12 city-pairs in the continental United States. Without altitude optimization, the reduction in contrail travel times is gradual with increase in total fuel consumption. When altitude is optimized, a two percent increase in total fuel consumption can reduce the total travel times through contrail regions by more than six times. Allowing further increase in fuel consumption does not seem to result in proportionate decrease in contrail travel times.

Ng, Hok K.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Understanding the causes of satellite–model discrepancies in aerosol–cloud interactions using near-LES simulations of marine boundary layer clouds

Aerosol–cloud interactions (ACI) remain the largest source of uncertainty in model estimates of anthropogenic radiative forcing, primarily because of deficiencies in representing aerosol–cloud microphysical processes that lead to inconsistent cloud liquid water path (LWP) responses to aerosol perturbations between observations and models. To investigate this discrepancy, we conducted a series of large-eddy-scale simulations driven by realistic meteorology over the eastern North Atlantic, and evaluated LWP susceptibility, precipitation processes, and boundary layer thermodynamics using satellite and ground-based observations. Simulated LWP responses show a strong dependence on cloud state. Non-precipitating thin clouds exhibit a modest LWP decrease with increasing cloud droplet number concentration (N d ), consistent in sign but weaker in magnitude than satellite estimates, reflecting enhanced turbulent mixing and evaporation. The largest model-observation discrepancy occurs in non-precipitating thick clouds, where simulated LWP susceptibilities are strongly positive (+0.32) while observations indicate large negative values (−0.69). This discrepancy stems from excessive precipitation driven by underestimated entrainment, overly active accretion, and overly broad drop-size distributions in polluted conditions. While our high-resolution setup mitigates the excessive drizzling common in coarser models and captures key regime transitions, these biases persist – highlighting that improved parameterizations of cloud-top processes, precipitation, and aerosol effects are needed beyond simply increasing model resolution. Additionally, misrepresented moisture inversions in reanalysis introduce a moist bias in cloud-top relative humidity, further amplifying positive LWP susceptibility. Our results also suggest that large negative N d –LWP relationships in observations may reflect internal cloud processes rather than true ACI effects.

Aerosol-cloud interaction↗
NASA NTRS2020

Over-Winter Persistence of Supraglacial Lakes on the Greenland Ice Sheet: Results and Insights From a New Model

We present a newly developed 1-D numerical energy-balance and phase transition supraglacial lake model: Glacier Lake. Glacier Lake incorporates snowfall, in situ snow and ice melt, incoming water from the surrounding catchment, ice lid formation, basal freeze-up and thermal stratification. Snow cover and temperature are varied to test lake development through winter and the maximum lid thickness is recorded. Average wintertime temperatures of −2 to −30◦C and total snowfall of 0 to 3.45 m lead to a range of the maximum lid thickness from 1.2 to 2.8 m after ~250 days, with snow cover exerting the dominant control. An initial ice temperature of −15◦C with simulated advection of cold ice from upstream results in 0.6 m of basal freeze-up. This suggests that lakes with water depths above 1.3 to 3.4 m (dependent on winter snowfall and temperature) upon lid formation will persist through winter. These buried lakes can provide a sizeable water store at the start of the melt season, expedite future lake formation and warm underlying ice even in winter.

glacier hydrology↗
NASA NTRS2017

Remote Linkages to Anomalous Winter Atmospheric Ridging over the Northeastern Pacific

Severe drought in California between 2013 and 2016 has been linked to the multiyear persistence of anomalously high atmospheric pressure over the northeastern Pacific Ocean, which deflected the Pacific storm track northward and suppressed regional precipitation during California's winter 'rainy season.' Multiple hypotheses have emerged regarding why this high pressure ridge near the west coast of North America was so resilient-including unusual sea surface temperature patterns in the Pacific Ocean, reductions in Arctic sea ice, random atmospheric variability, or some combination thereof. Here we explore relationships between previously documented atmospheric conditions over the North Pacific and several potential remote oceanic and cryospheric influences using both observational data and a large ensemble of climate model simulations. Our results suggest that persistent wintertime atmospheric ridging similar to that implicated in California's 2013-2016 drought can at least partially be linked to unusual Pacific sea surface temperatures, and that Pacific Ocean conditions may offer some degree of cool-season foresight in this region despite the presence of substantial internal variability.

California drought;Atmospheric ridging;Ocean-atmos↗
NASA NTRS1998

The Impact of Deviation from Michaelis-Menten Saturation on Mathematical Model Stability Properties

Based on purely abstract ecological theory, it has been argued that a system composed of two or more consumers competing for the same resource cannot persist. By analysis on a Monod format mathematical model, Hubble and others demonstrated that this assertion is true for all but very special cases of such competing organisms which are determined by an index formed by a grouping of. the parameters which characterize the biological processes of the competing organisms. In the laboratory, using a bioreactor, Hansen and Hubble obtained confirmatory results for several cases of two competing species, and they characterized it as "qualitative confirmation" of the assertion. This result is amazing, since the analysis required the exact equality of the hey index, and it seems certain that no pair of organism species could have exactly equal values. It is quite plausible, however, that pairs of organism species could have approximately equal indices, and the question of how different they could be and still have coexistence of the two (or more) presents itself. In this paper, the pursuit of this question and a compatible resolution is presented.

Blackwell, Charles↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fingerprinting Interactions between Proteins and Ligands for Facilitating Machine Learning in Drug Discovery

Molecular recognition is fundamental in biology, underpinning intricate processes through specific protein–ligand interactions. This understanding is pivotal in drug discovery, yet traditional experimental methods face limitations in exploring the vast chemical space. Computational approaches, notably quantitative structure–activity/property relationship analysis, have gained prominence. Molecular fingerprints encode molecular structures and serve as property profiles, which are essential in drug discovery. While two-dimensional (2D) fingerprints are commonly used, three-dimensional (3D) structural interaction fingerprints offer enhanced structural features specific to target proteins. Machine learning models trained on interaction fingerprints enable precise binding prediction. Recent focus has shifted to structure-based predictive modeling, with machine-learning scoring functions excelling due to feature engineering guided by key interactions. Notably, 3D interaction fingerprints are gaining ground due to their robustness. Various structural interaction fingerprints have been developed and used in drug discovery, each with unique capabilities. This review recapitulates the developed structural interaction fingerprints and provides two case studies to illustrate the power of interaction fingerprint-driven machine learning. The first elucidates structure–activity relationships in β2 adrenoceptor ligands, demonstrating the ability to differentiate agonists and antagonists. The second employs a retrosynthesis-based pre-trained molecular representation to predict protein–ligand dissociation rates, offering insights into binding kinetics. Despite remarkable progress, challenges persist in interpreting complex machine learning models built on 3D fingerprints, emphasizing the need for strategies to make predictions interpretable. Binding site plasticity and induced fit effects pose additional complexities. Interaction fingerprints are promising but require continued research to harness their full potential.

3D structural interaction fingerprints↗