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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Large-scale inflatable structures for tunnel protection: a review of the Resilient Tunnel Plug project

The protection of underground civil infrastructure continues to be a high priority for transportation and transit security agencies. In particular, rail transit tunnels running under bodies of water are susceptible to disruptions due to flooding caused by extraordinary climatic events such as hurricanes or other events resulting from human activities. Several events have taken place in the past decades that have demonstrated the need to mitigate vulnerabilities or, at least, minimize the consequences of catastrophic events. Although it is impossible to prevent all situations that can lead to flooding, damage can be substantially decreased by reducing the area affected by the event. To minimize the effects of an event, a possible approach is to compartmentalize the tunnel system by creating temporary barriers that can contain the propagation of flooding until a more permanent solution can be implemented. One way to create a temporary barrier is by the deployment of a large-scale inflatable structure, also known as an inflatable plug. In such an application, the inflatable structure is prepared for placement, either permanently or temporally, and maintained ready for deployment, inflation, and pressurization when needed. The internal plug pressure imparts a normal force against the tunnel wall surface with the friction between the plug and tunnel surfaces opposing axial movement of the plug. The sealing effectiveness depends on the ability of the inflatable structure to self-deploy and fit, without human intervention, to the intricacies of the perimeter of the conduit being sealed. Primary design constraints include having the plug stowed away from the dynamic envelope of the trains and being able to withhold the pressure of the flooding water. This work presents a compilation of the main aspects of the activities completed for the development of large-scale inflatable structures as part of the Resilient Tunnel Plug (RTP) Project. The main test results and lessons learned are presented to demonstrate the viability of implementing large-scale inflatable plugs for the containment of flooding in rail tunnels systems. Over 400 coupon and specimen tests, 200 reduced scale tests, and 100 full-scale tests were conducted to demonstrate the efficacy of the design of different prototypes over a 10-year research and development project. The culmination of the work was 12 large-scale flooding demonstrations where the inflatable tunnel plug was shown able to be deployed remotely and withstand a simulated flooding event.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Combinatorial Evaluation of Physical Feature Engineering, Classical Machine Learning, and Deep Learning Models for Synchrophasor Data at Scale

A major objective of the project was to train and evaluate the effectiveness of multiple event and anomaly detection, identification and classification deep temporal learning models for processing of real-time phasor measurement unit (PMU) data streams. A vast dataset, consisting of two years of phasor measurements from all three U.S. Interconnections, was curated and released by the Department of Energy (DOE) through Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). The dataset also included an event log that provided event times and types (e.g. generator trips, line trips, planned service events, transformer operations, etc.). Our analysis of this dataset addressed six (6) of the eleven (11) research priorities identified in Funding Opportunity Announcement (FOA) DE-FOA-0001861 “Big Data Analysis of Synchrophasor Data” (FOA 1861). Rather than being limited to pre-determined specific algorithms, this project relied on the uniquely structured, highly performant underlying time series database capabilities of the PredictiveGrid platform to assess the vast dataset utilizing a wide variety of algorithms.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Urbanization Impact on Regional Climate and Extreme Weather: Current Understanding, Uncertainties, and Future Research Directions

Abstract Urban environments lie at the confluence of social, cultural, and economic activities and have unique biophysical characteristics due to continued infrastructure development that generally replaces natural landscapes with built-up structures. The vast majority of studies on urban perturbation of local weather and climate have been centered on the urban heat island (UHI) effect, referring to the higher temperature in cities compared to their natural surroundings. Besides the UHI effect and heat waves, urbanization also impacts atmospheric moisture, wind, boundary layer structure, cloud formation, dispersion of air pollutants, precipitation, and storms. In this review article, we first introduce the datasets and methods used in studying urban areas and their impacts through both observation and modeling and then summarize the scientific insights on the impact of urbanization on various aspects of regional climate and extreme weather based on more than 500 studies. We also highlight the major research gaps and challenges in our understanding of the impacts of urbanization and provide our perspective and recommendations for future research priorities and directions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Emissions minimization on road networks via Generic Second Order Models

In this paper we consider the problem of estimating emissions due to vehicular traffic on complex networks, and minimizing their effect by regulating traffic at junctions. For the traffic evolution, we consider a Generic Second Order Model, which encompasses the majority of two-equations (i.e., second-order) models available in the literature, and extend it to road networks with merge and diverge junctions. The dynamics on the whole network is determined by selecting a solution to the Riemann Problems at junctions, i.e., the Cauchy problems with constant initial data on each incident road. The latter are solved by assuming the maximization of the flow and assigning a traffic distribution coefficient for outgoing roads of diverges, and a priority rule for incoming roads of merges. A general emission model is considered and its parameters are tuned to the $ {\mathrm{NO_{x}}} $ emission rate. The minimization of emissions is then formulated in terms of the traffic distribution and priority parameters, taking into account travel times. A comparison is provided between roundabouts with optimized parameters and traffic lights, which correspond to time-varying traffic priorities. Our approach can be adapted to manage traffic in complex networks in order to reduce emissions while keeping travel time at acceptable levels.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The PARADIGM Project: Case Study in Balancing Experiment Uncertainty with Design simplicity

Accurate nuclear data are required for simulations of many applications including nuclear criticality safety. Actinide nuclear data at intermediate energies (from 1 to 100s of keV) are imprecise and inaccurate, because of scarce differential data, and an insufficient theory approach to capture the structures expected in the data to yield evaluated nuclear data, and lack of integral data for proper validation. This is a known deficiency but has proved challenging to address. More specifically, only 5% of integral experiments in the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) benchmark suite address intermediate energies (Fig. 1). Associated calculated effective multiplication factor, k eff , values for these experiments are far outside the experimental uncertainties and are 25× further from experiment than for fast energies. These differences could either stem from systematic biases in nuclear data, experiments or both. The goal of the PARADIGM (PARallel Approach of Differential and InteGral Measurements) project is to significantly reduce (by more than tens of percent) the uncertainties of intermediate energy actinide nuclear data. The PARADIGM project designed and intends to execute LANSCE (Los Alamos Neutron Science CEnter) and NCERC (National Criticality Experiments Research Center) intermediate experiments in parallel. They will specifically address a high priority nuclear data need—reducing bias and uncertainty in intermediate plutonium nuclear data. The two experiment will achieve that by informing each other and nuclear theory. By doing all these steps in parallel, the timeline to deliver improved nuclear data to users will significantly be reduced. This work will focus on the integral experiment final design and the balance of design and modeling simplicity while minimizing experiment uncertainty.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

U.S. Efforts in Support of Examinations at Fukushima Daiichi - November 2022 Meeting Notes and Information Request Status

Information obtained from Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (Daiichi) is required to inform future Decontamination and Decommissioning (D&D) activities, improving the ability of the Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, Incorporated (TEPCO Holdings) to characterize potential hazards and to ensure the safety of workers involved with cleanup activities. This information also has important implications for the safety and operation of U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. This document summarizes results from the Fiscal Year 2023 (FY2023) U.S. effort to review Daiichi information and extract insights to enhance the safety of existing and future nuclear power plant designs. This U.S. effort, which was initiated in 2014 by the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy, is completed by a group of experts in reactor safety and plant operations that identify examination needs and evaluate recent Daiichi examination data to address these needs. Fukushima-related information and associated discussions during these meetings benefit operating, new, and advanced reactors. Significant safety insights have been and are continuing to be obtained in several areas: system and component performance, radionuclide surveys and sampling, debris end-state location, combustible gas effects, and plant operations and maintenance. In addition to reducing uncertainties related to severe accident modeling progression, these insights have and continue to be used to update guidance for severe accident prevention, mitigation, and emergency planning. Furthermore, Daiichi-related activities, such as code modeling improvements and analysis, testing, and new technology deployment efforts, have the potential to offer additional benefits to the operating fleet and new LWR and non-LWR designs. U.S. evaluations of obtained examination information and input regarding future Daiichi examinations are of interest to several organizations within Japan. Since its inception, the U.S. has provided consensus input for high priority time-sequenced examination tasks and supporting research activities. In their Mid-to-Long-term Examination Plan for 1F investigations, TEPCO included all remaining U.S. consensus information requests and additional information requests they identified. TEPCO periodically provides reports on the status of these requests (reflecting D&D priorities, new insights from investigations, and new technologies that become available). Hence, U.S. experts agreed that it was appropriate for TEPCO to track and prioritize these information requests as D&D progresses. U.S. experts will continue to review and comment on the information obtained from examinations and, as needed, provide additional details and relevant background material to support future examinations. As documented in this report, several other items, such as additional details on information requests pertaining to ex-vessel examinations, relevant references from prior research, additional documents to provide insights regarding recent investigation findings, and reviews of recently released documents, were agreed to during the FY2023 meeting.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO 2

Abstract. The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global mean temperature expected to occur following the cessation of net CO 2 emissions and as such is a critical parameter for calculating the remaining carbon budget. The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) was established to gain a better understanding of the potential magnitude and sign of ZEC, in addition to the processes that underlie this metric. A total of 18 Earth system models of both full and intermediate complexity participated in ZECMIP. All models conducted an experiment where atmospheric CO 2 concentration increases exponentially until 1000 PgC has been emitted. Thereafter emissions are set to zero and models are configured to allow free evolution of atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Many models conducted additional second-priority simulations with different cumulative emission totals and an alternative idealized emissions pathway with a gradual transition to zero emissions. The inter-model range of ZEC 50 years after emissions cease for the 1000 PgC experiment is -0.36 to 0.29°C, with a model ensemble mean of -0.07 °C, median of -0.05°C, and standard deviation of 0.19°C. Models exhibit a wide variety of behaviours after emissions cease, with some models continuing to warm for decades to millennia and others cooling substantially. Analysis shows that both the carbon uptake by the ocean and the terrestrial biosphere are important for counteracting the warming effect from the reduction in ocean heat uptake in the decades after emissions cease. This warming effect is difficult to constrain due to high uncertainty in the efficacy of ocean heat uptake. Overall, the most likely value of ZEC on multi-decadal timescales is close to zero, consistent with previous model experiments and simple theory.

MacDougall, Andrew H.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Considerations for Improving the Technoeconomic Viability of Heat Pipe Microreactors by Employing a Functional Containment Approach

The economic cost of a microreactor is being investigated by leveraging MARVEL cost information in conjunction with some simplified design and analysis activities to present a hypothetical, yet feasible, option for investigation. This bottom-up cost estimate for a hypothetical commercial microreactor will be used to provide guidance to the industry and research communities regarding where priorities should be set to improve the viability of broad microreactor deployment. To support the design and analysis activities required to present a feasible option, some understanding of maximum accidental radionuclide releases and consequences is needed to provide bounding estimates on containment or confinement systems for radionuclide retention. To estimate fission product barrier and retention performance, a gaussian plume dose and dispersion model is employed, with isotopic inventories being propagated between barriers assuming conservative fractional release rates. Demonstrably conservative meteorological assumptions are also assumed. Standard reference release rates are assumed where safety requirements could be easily and economically employed. Results are provided in units of total effective dose equivalent as a function of distance from the release (i.e., the reactor). Initial results indicate that the hypothetical microreactor will likely need to credit the fuel cladding and at least one other barrier, or combination of barriers, to ensure public health and safety as required during a postulated accident. This approach is referred to as “functional containment,” since no single barrier will be relied upon for satisfying regulatory requirements and fundamental safety functions for radionuclide retention. Finally, a set of barrier options are provided so that future economic analyses can select the most viable design path.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Investigation into Reductive Separation of Tc-99 from Low Activity Waste Off-Gas Condensate by Zero Valent Iron Materials - 20311

This study is investigating the potential for reductive separation of technetium-99 (Tc) from off-gas condensate generated from vitrification of legacy tank waste at the Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant. Management of Tc is a high-priority activity for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM) complex, which must be addressed based on knowledge gaps and technology development needs outlined in the DOE-EM Technetium Management Program Plan [1]. Technetium is one of the main risk drivers in the permanent disposal of low activity waste (LAW) by vitrification at the Hanford Site due to its high volatility and only fractional incorporation into borosilicate glass. Volatilized Tc will be captured by an off-gas treatment system, and the current plan is to continuously recycle generated condensate back to the LAW glass melter feed. Off-gas recycling is effective at increasing Tc loading in the LAW glass, but it also disproportionately increases concentrations of sulfate, halides, and other volatile compounds impeding overall LAW processing leading to significantly greater waste glass volume requirements. Removal of Tc from secondary liquid waste offers an alternative disposal route to continuous off-gas recycling which may result in significant reduction of the volumes of LAW waste glass and substantial cost savings. The objective of this research funded by the DOE-EM Minority Serving Institutions Partnership Program (MSIPP) is to determine the suitability of zero valent iron (ZVI) as a separation technology to remove Tc from the off-gas condensate stream to minimize its recycle. While ZVI has been proposed for various remediation applications with Tc, it has not been studied for its suitability for removing Tc from the LAW off-gas condensate. The goal is to identify the optimal conditions for which Tc{sup (VII)} will be reduced to Tc{sup (IV)} species and incorporated into an iron matrix. This paper presents a programmatic overview of our evaluation of commercial ZVI materials for their efficiency towards Tc{sup (VII)} reductive removal from simplified off-gas simulant solutions under aerobic conditions. Tc concentrations in solutions were monitored for up to 30 days to determine efficiency and kinetics of reductive removal of Tc. The best performing candidate materials were selected for further experiments evaluating the effects of (1) variable ionic strength, (2) the presence of chromium and corrosive anions, and (3) ZVI aging on Tc{sup (VII)} reductive removal in batch experiments. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Regulatory Mechanisms to Enable Investments in Electric Utility Resilience

In 2019, Sandia National Laboratories contracted Synapse Energy Economics (Synapse) to research the integration of community and electric utility resilience investment planning as part of the Designing Resilient Communities: A Consequence-Based Approach for Grid Investment (DRC) project. Synapse produced a series of reports to explore the challenges and opportunities in several key areas, including benefit-cost analysis, performance metrics, microgrids, and regulatory mechanisms to promote investments in electric system resilience. This report focuses on regulatory mechanisms to improve resilience. Regulatory mechanisms that improve resilience are approaches that electric utility regulators can use to align utility, customer, and third-party investments with regulatory, ratepayer, community, and other important stakeholder interests and priorities for resilience. Cost-of-service regulation may fail to provide utilities with adequate guidance or incentives regarding community priorities for infrastructure hardening and disaster recovery. The application of other types of regulatory mechanisms to resilience investments can help. This report: characterizes regulatory objective as they apply to resilience; identifies several regulatory mechanisms that are used or can be adapted to improve the resilience of the electric system--including performance-based regulation, integrated planning, tariffs and programs to leverage private investment, alternative lines of business for utilities, enhanced cost recovery, and securitization; provides a case study of each regulatory mechanism; summarizes findings across the case studies; and suggests how these regulatory mechanisms might be improved and applied to resilience moving forward. In this report, we assess the effectiveness of a range of utility regulatory mechanisms at evaluating and prioritizing utility investments in grid resilience. First, we characterize regulatory objectives which underly all regulatory mechanisms. We then describe seven types of regulatory mechanisms that can be used to improve resilience--including performance-based regulation, integrated planning, tariffs and programs to leverage private investment, alternative lines of business for utilities, enhanced cost recovery, and securitization--and provide a case study for each one. We summarize our findings on the extent to which these regulatory mechanisms have supported resilience to date. We conclude with suggestions on how these regulatory mechanisms might be improved and applied to resilience moving forward.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Final Design of a New Pulsed-Neutron Die-Away Experimental Testbed for Thermal Scattering Law Benchmarks (PNDA) (IER-501 CED-2)

This report presents the final design (CED-2) of IER-501, a testbed for pulsed-neutron die-away (PNDA) experiments at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). The PNDA experiments will be high-quality benchmarks that serve to optimize and validate thermal neutron scattering laws (TSLs), which are high-priority nuclear data for the Department of Energy’s Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP). This CED-2 was guided by experimental results gathered from a prototype experimental set-up rather than with detailed simulations as is typically done for criticality experiments. The report presents the PNDA design and its equipment, and it documents the methodology used to postprocess the measured data. It discusses how experimental configurations influenced the decay-constant eigenvalue, or the integral parameter, of the experiment. The studied variations included the distance from the target to the generator, the orientation of the generator relative to the box, the orientation of the target to the generator, the effect of HDPE lining in the shielding box, the settings of the generator, and finally the benefits of using a low-scatter facility. From these results, a final configuration for the target, detectors, shielding box, and neutron generator was chosen. Two factors particularly influenced the chosen configuration: the reproducibility of the experiment’s geometry for benchmark modeling, and the minimization of measured neutrons scattered off the shielding box.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Building Envelope Characteristics in Cold Climates

Prescriptive guidelines for thermal insulation in the design of buildings in cold climates have traditionally been derived by a holistic consideration of climatic factors, energy policy, environmental policy, and economics. The differences in thermal barrier requirements in buildings across the arctic and subarctic regions of the world are influenced as much by the differing priorities of the governing bodies that set these requirements as by actual physical demands and conditions. Usually, national requirements for building envelope characteristics such as thermal insulation values, building envelope airtightness, vapor permeability, building mass, and detailing are based on economics, durability, and environmental considerations. Consideration of thermal energy system resilience provides a new paradigm through which to view the optimization of these parameters. The paper describes specifics of construction in cold climates; summarizes best practice requirements for the building envelope characteristics for buildings located in cold and arctic climate of the United States, Canada, and Scandinavian countries; provides some details illustrating how to implement these requirements; and compares the effects of different levels of building envelope efficiency and building mass on indoor air temperature decay when heat supply is interrupted. The paper also presents results from experts' discussions during the consultation forum "Thermal Energy Systems Resilience in Cold/Arctic Climates" (ERDC 2020) and research conducted under the IEA EBC Annex 73, the Environmental Security Technology Certification Program (ESTCP) Project "Technologies Integration to Achieve Resilient, Low-Energy Military Installations," and U.S. Army Program project 633734T1500 under Military Engineering Technology Demonstration. The paper complements the Cold-Climate Design Guide (ASHRAE 2015) with a focus on the resilience of thermal energy systems.

Arctic↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hydropower representation in water and energy system models: a review of divergences and call for reconciliation

Abstract Reservoir-based hydropower systems represent key interactions between water and energy systems and are being transformed under policy initiatives driven by increasing water and energy demand, the desire to reduce environmental impacts, and interacting effects of climate change. Such policies are often guided by complex system models, whereby divergence in system representations can potentially translate to incompatible planning outcomes, thereby undermining any planning that may rely on them. We review different approaches and assumptions in hydropower representation in water and energy systems. While the models and issues are relevant globally, the review focuses on applications in California given its extensive development of energy and water models for policy planning, but discusses the extent to which these observations apply to other regions. Structurally, both water-driven and energy-driven management models are similar. However, in energy models, hydropower is often represented as a single-priority output. Water management models typically allocate water for competing priorities, which are generally uninformed by dynamic electricity load demand, and often result in a lower priority for hydropower. In water models, constraints are increasingly resolved for non-energy components (e.g. inflow hydrology and non-energy water demand); few analogues exist for energy models. These limitations may result in inadequate representations of each respective sector, and vastly different planning outcomes for the same facilities between the two different sectors. These divergent modeling approaches manifest themselves in California where poorly reconciled outcomes may affect decisions in hydropower licensing, electricity grid flexibility and decarbonization, and planning for environmental water. Fully integrated water-energy models are computationally intensive and specific to certain regions, but better representation of each domain in respective efforts would help reconcile divergences in planning and management efforts related to hydropower across energy and water systems.

Rheinheimer, David E. (ORCID:0000000315259069)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Small-Signal Angle Stability-Oriented False Data Injection Cyber-Attacks on Power Systems

The small-signal angle stability (SSAS) of a power system is determined by the property of operation points. The widely applied false data injection (FDI) cyber-attack, however, is able to stealthily mislead the optimal power flow (OPF) and thus compromise operation points, leading to damages to the SSAS margin. Here, to provide insights for cyber defenders, this paper proposes and investigates a stealthy SSAS-oriented FDI cyber-attack focusing on two attacking purposes, i.e., the SSAS margin and operation cost, with higher priority on the former one. First, this paper establishes a novel bi-level model with an implicit SSAS constraint based on a structure preserving model to compromise operation points. Then, for the SSAS interarea mode in a typical two-area system, this paper formulates closed-form expressions of how the SSAS margin and operation cost behave with respect to stealthy injections. By comparison, for the SSAS local mode in general power systems, this paper proposes a moving target cyber-attack-based hierarchical solution algorithm. Simulation results on a two-area system, a Kundur 11 bus system, and a modified IEEE 14 bus system demonstrate the significant damaging effects of the proposed SSAS-oriented FDI cyber-attack and the conflict between the two attacking purposes.

Benders decomposition↗
DOE OSTI2024

Technical note: Optimizing the in situ cosmogenic 36 Cl extraction and measurement workflow for geologic applications

Abstract. In situ cosmogenic 36Cl analysis by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) is routinely employed to date Quaternary surfaces and assess rates of landscape evolution. However, standard laboratory preparation procedures for 36Cl dating require the addition of large amounts of isotopically enriched chlorine spike solution; these solutions are expensive and increasingly difficult to acquire from commercial sources. In addition, the typical workflow for 36Cl dating involves measuring both 35Cl/37Cl and 36Cl/Cl concurrently on the high-energy (post-accelerator) end of the AMS system, but 35Cl/37Cl determinations using this technique can be complicated by isotope fractionation and system memory during measurement. The traditional workflow also does not provide 36Cl extraction laboratories with the data needed to calculate native Cl concentrations in advance of 36Cl/Cl measurements. In light of these concerns, we present an improved workflow for extracting and measuring chlorine in geologic materials. Our initial step is to characterize 35Cl/37Cl on sample aliquots of up to ∼1 g prepared in Ag(Cl, Br) matrices, which greatly reduces the amount of isotopically enriched spike solution required to measure native Cl content in each sample. To avoid potential issues with isotope fractionation through the accelerator, 35Cl/37Cl is measured on the low-energy, pre-accelerator end of the AMS line. Then, for 36Cl/Cl measurements, we extract Cl as AgCl or Ag(Cl, Br) in analytical batches with a consistent total Cl load across all samples; this step is intended to minimize source memory effects during 36Cl/Cl measurements and allows the preparation of AMS standards that are customized to match known Cl contents in the samples. To assess the efficacy of this extraction and measurement workflow, we compare chlorine isotope ratio measurements on seven geologic samples prepared using standard procedures and the updated workflow. Measurements of 35Cl/37Cl and 36Cl/Cl are consistent between the two workflows, and 35Cl/37Cl values measured using our methods have considerably higher precision than those measured following standard protocols. The chemical preparation and measurement workflow presented here (1) reduces the amount of isotopically enriched chlorine spike used per rock sample by up to 95 %; (2) identifies rocks with high native Cl concentrations, which may be lower priority for 36Cl surface exposure dating, at an early stage of analysis; and (3) allows laboratory users to maintain control over the total chlorine content within and across analytical batches. These methods can be incorporated into existing laboratory and AMS protocols for 36Cl analyses and will increase the accessibility of 36Cl dating for geologic applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Understanding Structures of Cyber Competition in an Era of Major Power Rivalry

Over the past two decades, the cyber domain has emerged and evolved into a key strategic domain for nations across the globe. Security strategies are espoused by heads of state that focus on how to manage the increasingly enormous, crosscutting impact that the cyber domain has on national security across economic, military, intelligence, intellectual property, and countless other facets. These strategies frequently evolve, and even change entirely, as leaders adapt to new technologies and administrations change. Even if these strategies did not change at all, they would take inordinate amounts of time to effectively implement within the organizational structures of government. The time required to go from setting department and agency-level goals, to the time small teams have well-oiled processes and expertise to accomplish tactical objectives that meet the strategic vision is lengthy. With near certainty, by the time objectives and vision are implemented, the landscape, strategy, or both has changed entirely. While this churn will likely never cease due to the rapidly changing nature of the cyber domain, this problem raises an important question: can governmental structures be organized to rapidly adapt to changing cyber strategies? As offices responsible for particular missions in cyberspace shuffle about within the bureaucracy, are technical capabilities enabled or enhanced? No matter how advanced a particular technical capability is or how adept the staff is at solving problems, they will be ineffective if placed haphazardly within the organization: the right authorities may not exist for their office, the correct lines of interpersonal communication may not be established properly, or insufficient resources have not been allocated to effectively deploy a brilliant technical solution. This concept of organizational agility in the context of national cyber capabilities is important when taking into account the National Defense Strategy’s emphasis on cyber capability and the ability of the United States to compete and rapidly adapt to new challenges posed by rivals. As a nation, we are at a point where technology evolves rapidly enough to warrant thoughtful and nimble changes to the bureaucratic structures that support how cyber operations are carried out. Taking these questions and cross-comparing them to the organizational structures across China, Russia, and the United States provides for an interesting thought experiment. As non-democratic regimes, China and Russia have differing priorities and internal power dynamics than the United States and thus organize their governments differently. By combining known and broadcasted strategies of these nations with the observed technical capabilities demonstrated in the public domain, we can begin to see how organizational structures map to strategic goals and directly enable technical capabilities. Insight can be gained by introducing organizational structures into traditional analysis focusing solely around strategies and capabilities; additionally, otherwise unknown capabilities or intents might be discovered or inferred by analyzing organizational structures alone. Analyzing cyber operations from this oft-overlooked perspective could potentially provide useful insight and more concrete actions that can be undertaken to realize the National Defense Strategy’s goals.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2024

Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020–2021

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub ( https://covid19forecasthub.org ). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1–4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

How to support EV adoption: Tradeoffs between charging infrastructure investments and vehicle subsidies in California

Supporting the adoption of zero-emission vehicle (ZEVs), including plug-in electric vehicles (EVs), has become a priority for governments due to their ability to reduce petroleum demand, improve air quality, and reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Optimal strategies to accelerate EV adoption must weigh the relative value of alternative policy mechanisms to consumers, including public charging infrastructure and vehicle purchase subsidies. We use a historically validated light-duty vehicle consumer choice tool, the ADOPT model, to simulate personal light-duty vehicle adoption and related emissions in California. ADOPT is updated to incorporate a quantification of the tangible value of public charging infrastructure, allowing us to simulate the impact of investments in public charging infrastructure and vehicle purchase subsidies under different scenarios. We show that both policies result in increased EV adoption, with the most effective policy varying depending on vehicle technology assumptions. Under conservative technology improvement assumptions, infrastructure investments are most effective in promoting EV sales and reducing CO2 emissions, while under optimistic technology improvement assumptions a combination of infrastructure and subsidies best supports EV sales and CO2 emission reductions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗