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DOE OSTI2023

Fusion Innovation and the Valley of Death—Lessons from Fission

Over the past several decades, the United States (U.S.) and other countries have done important research and development in advanced nuclear energy technologies, both fission and fusion. The urgency of our current climate, energy, and security needs have prompted a concerted effort by innovators, investors, and the public sector to transition from research and development (R&D) to demonstration and commercialization—to cross the proverbial “valley of death.” The stakes are high: humanity needs clean energy options, and the failure of any promising alternative will lower our odds of success. The process of moving an innovation into use has often been described in phases that begin with early research and end with deployment at scale. Between those two phases lies an area often referred to as the “valley of death” because it can require a long period of time, large investments, and often includes significant challenges related to regulation, standardization, and entering markets already structured around incumbent technologies. What can we learn from recent experience with fission to inform our path forward with fusion? At least five key lessons rise to the top: 1) Set bold targets; 2) Empower the private sector; 3) Engage with regulators and the public; 4) Address costs and markets; and 5) Deliver results. Here, this editorial will consider each of these in turn.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Active Lithium Injection for a Real Time Control of the Divertor Heat Flux for Fusion Devices

When the local heat flux exceeds specified flux limit, tungsten PFC surfaces can be damaged, which is not acceptable for a reliable reactor operations. The divertor PFCs are typically designed for a specific heat flux limit usually assuming an average steady-state heat flux which is typically 5–10 MW/m 2 . However, in addition to steady-state heat flux, fusion reactor divertor PFCs could experience transient heat fluxes such as ELMs and/or other magnetic reconnection events which can deposit large transient heat fluxes onto the divertor PFCs. The transient divertor heat flux could be significantly larger than the steady-state heat flux which could damage the solid PFC surfaces. The divertor heat flux can be subjected to additional complications such as the uncertainties in the the divertor strike point heat flux projection. Moreover, there are additional experimental observations of non-axisymmetric power flux which can occur under non-axisymmetric magnetic perturbations. The liquid lithium (LL) PFCs is more resilient against such transient heat fluxes as they could evaporate LL as needed and the lost LL can be then replenished afterward. In this paper, we analyze a case for a transient divertor heat pulse of 1 MJ in 10 ms for a ITER-size reactor. This is a small perturbation (~ 0.1%) to the expected plasma stored energy compared to the previously analyzed case of 20 MJ heat pulse. Even with this relatively modest heat pulse, the LL surface undergoes ~ 100 °C temperature rise. However, the resulting LL surface heating without rapid cooldown mechanism could lead to excessive LL evaporation continuing well after the transient heat flux resulting in a significant Li injection of ~ 0.6 mol in about a 200 ms period. This amount of Li injection could cause plasma dilution and performance degradation. On the other hand, an active Li injection capability if optimized could prevent the LL surface temperature rise and thus reducing subsequent Li evaporation into the plasma by a factor of 7 compared to the passive LL PFC case. A crucial tool of active Li injection is a rapid response pellet injector which could inject light impurity pellets before the excessive heat flux could reach the divertor plate causing serious damage. A simple pellet ablation model suggests a favorable pellet deposition profile for smaller ~ 0.1 mm radius pellet with ~ 10–20 m/s velocity. Moreover, if it is possible to inject from the private flux region, the pellet injection efficiency into the high heat flux strike point region can be as high as 80% compared to ~ 50% for the injection from outer radius region. The pellet deposition efficiency can be further improved by designing a shell-pellet which can burst when a certain ablation fraction is reached. Finally, a possible implementation technique using an inductive pellet injector with a rapid time response of a few msec is proposed here which can be tested in NSTX-U.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Native bee Pollination Ecosystem Services in Agricultural Wetlands and Riparian Protected Lands

Abstract Many freshwater wetlands and riparian systems are protected within agricultural landscapes. Yet, pollinator ecosystem services are seldom considered key ecosystem services provided by these conservation easements. The purpose of this study is to explore the extent of protected aquatic lands to provide pollination ecosystem services by assessing pollinator abundances, crop yield changes, and value estimations of increased soybean yields from a subset of common native solitary bees. We created a novel geodatabase of United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) conservation easements and used this database in the InVEST crop pollination model to model wild solitary bee pollination. We then estimated the monetary value of yield increases provided by pollinators. We found that wetland uplands provided the greatest potential for pollination services for ground nesting bees, followed by herbaceous and forested riparian respectively. Stem nesters preferred forested riparian, then upland habitats. In soybeans fields, we found wild pollinators can provide up to 5.5% yield response from current private aquatic conservation lands. The current landscape is not optimized to use wetlands and riparian conservation lands as pollinator habitat, but these results suggest protected aquatic lands can sustainably increase wild pollination services to agricultural crops if landscapes are managed, protected, and optimized with pollinator services as co-benefit.

Hinson, Audra L. (ORCID:0000000242314820)↗
DOE OSTI2025

60 years of science in ICF: from conception to scientific breakeven on the National Ignition Facility

The recent achievements of a burning plasma, fusion ignition, and scientific energy gain with deuterium-tritium (DT) fuel at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s National Ignition Facility (NIF) represents a major milestone in the development of inertial confinement fusion (ICF) and all of fusion research. In these experiments, fuel pressures well in excess of hundreds of GBars were achieved in the compressed fuel, and robust alpha heating of the fuel, far in excess of the energy provided by the implosion, were demonstrated for the first time. These achievements occurred 60 years after the inception of ICF and the first laser demonstration, and were made possible by more than five decades of research at laser facilities around the world. Advances in laser technology both in wavelength and precision, motivated by improved understanding of laser-plasma interaction physics and the demands of targets; improvements in target fabrication inspired by the need to control and minimize hydrodynamic instabilities in the implosion; and multi-dimensional simulations and diagnostics have been critical to this achievement. This paper will summarize the scientific and technical advances, the surprises, and the challenges that had to be overcome to achieve these goals.

fusion↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reliability metrics and their management implications for open pond algae cultivation

The prevalence of contaminating organisms in outdoor algae cultivation, with the often-associated dramatic crop failures, necessitates the need for metrics describing production system reliability. Standard metrics for algae cultivation reliability are critically needed to be able to map improvements in operational parameters, but do not currently exist. In this work, we present a set of standard metrics including mean time to failure (MTTF) and mean time between failures (MTBF) as the basis for the calculation of pond failure rate (FR) and reliability coefficient (RC). Metrics associated with the numbers of contaminating organisms such as abundance ratio (AR), prevalence of infection (PI), and mean intensity of infection (MII) are also relevant. These metrics, based on measured experimental values of outdoor pond performance during the Algae Testbed Public-Private Partnership (ATP3) Unified Field Studies (UFS), provide a basis for quantifying pond failure and provide insight into potential pond management and contaminant mitigation strategies. From these reliability metrics applied to this dataset, we are able to link operational parameters, such as harvest frequency and inoculum source, to pond reliability for different algae strains and seasons, and from an assessment of AR, provide contamination thresholds beyond which a culture may be unrecoverable. Ultimately, the implementation of widely-practiced and simple-to-calculate algae pond reliability metrics calculated from rapid and easy to collect data or observations will reduce risk and uncertainty in large-scale algae deployment and aid in the development of integrated pest management (IPM) strategies.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

The impacts of building characteristics, social psychological and cultural factors on indoor environment quality productivity belief

Indoor environmental quality (IEQ) plays a key role in determining occupants' productivity at work; however, analyses of the interconnected factors among building physical, attitudinal, social and demographic components in one study are lacking. To fill this research gap, this study investigates these interconnected factors' influence on occupants’ IEQ-productivity belief, defined as a personal, subjective evaluation of the linkage between the impacts of five IEQ aspects (the quality of indoor temperature, air, natural and electric lighting, and acoustics) and productivity. A cross-sectional survey data was collected in university offices from six countries (Brazil, Italy, Poland, Switzerland, Taiwan and the U.S.). Results of multiple linear regression models indicate that IEQ satisfaction is the strongest positive predictor of the IEQ-productivity belief and this relationship is stronger in private offices. Country of residence is the second primary predictor. Several attitudinal-behavioral factors, including thermal comfort, perceived ease of controlling indoor environmental features, and attitudes toward sharing controls are all positively associated with IEQ-productivity belief. Interestingly, the level of control accessibility to light switches has the strongest impact as opposed to other controls. On the other hand, group norms and conformity intention are not significant predictors. Regarding demographics, men are more likely than women to perceive the IEQs to have positive impacts on their productivity, without considering other variables in the regression model; however, women are more likely than men to consider all IEQs as having positive impacts on productivity, after considering other variables. Furthermore, our findings provide suggestions for prioritizing wellness in the workplace since the early design stage.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Intersecting heuristic adaptive strategies, building design and energy saving intentions when facing discomfort environment: A cross-country analysis

Occupants' adaptive strategies play an important role in the energy consumption of office buildings. Previous research has mostly focused on the adaptive strategies triggered by occupants' indoor discomfort; however, it is crucial to understand if specific adaptive strategies are linked to occupants' energy-saving intentions. This study explores the relationships among employees’ heuristic decision-making in their first choice of adaptive strategies (technological solutions or personal adjustments) when facing extreme discomfort conditions, and their energy-saving intentions, then links these patterns with building design, workplace contextual factors, and demographics. A cross-sectional survey was collected among university employees from China, Brazil, Italy, Poland, Switzerland, and the US. Our results demonstrated that the accessibility to indoor environmental controls (IECs) and office type are the significant factors for adaptive strategies. There was a positive relationship between the number of IEC features and the percentage of employees choosing a technological solution. When feeling too hot, occupants in private offices are more likely to adopt a technological solution, whereas occupants in cubicles are more likely to choose a personal adjustment. Occupants with energy-saving intentions are less likely to choose thermostat adjustments or use portable devices as adaptive strategies than their counterparts. Lastly, the cluster analysis suggests females were more likely to use adaptive strategies for energy-saving purposes than males. The majority of occupants would turn on/off lighting to save energy. The study provides the contributions in the connection between the heuristic decision-making process and energy-saving intentions and recommendations on design strategies for building architects, engineers, and managers.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Understanding collective human movement dynamics during large-scale events using big geosocial data analytics

Conventional approaches for modeling human mobility pattern often focus on human activity and movement dynamics in their regular daily lives and cannot capture changes in human movement dynamics in response to large-scale events. With the rapid advancement of information and communication technologies, many researchers have adopted alternative data sources (e.g., cell phone records, GPS trajectory data) from private data vendors to study human movement dynamics in response to large-scale natural or societal events. Big geosocial data such as georeferenced tweets are publicly available and dynamically evolving as real-world events are happening, making it more likely to capture the real-time sentiments and responses of populations. However, precisely-geolocated geosocial data is scarce and biased toward urban population centers. In this research, we developed a big geosocial data analytical framework for extracting human movement dynamics in response to large-scale events from publicly available georeferenced tweets. The framework includes a two-stage data collection module that collects data in a more targeted fashion in order to mitigate the data scarcity issue of georeferenced tweets; in addition, a variable bandwidth kernel density estimation(VB-KDE) approach was adopted to fuse georeference information at different spatial scales, further augmenting the signals of human movement dynamics contained in georeferenced tweets. To correct for the sampling bias of georeferenced tweets, we adjusted the number of tweets for different spatial units (e.g., county, state) by population. To demonstrate the performance of the proposed analytic framework, we chose an astronomical event that occurred nationwide across the United States, i.e., the 2017 Great American Eclipse, as an example event and studied the human movement dynamics in response to this event. Finally, this analytic framework can easily be applied to other types of large-scale events such as hurricanes or earthquakes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

The U.S. Fusion Materials Community Roadmap: Near-term research priorities for the development of plasma-facing and structural materials for fusion power plants

In response to the needs of a rapidly growing private fusion industry, the U.S. Fusion Materials Coordinating Committee (FMCC) and the broader U.S. fusion materials research community undertook an extensive effort to create a comprehensive roadmap for fusion materials development. The result of this effort was the U.S. Fusion Materials Community Roadmap (US-FMCR), which describes the steps needed to advance the technical maturity of leading candidates for plasma-facing materials and structural materials for fusion power plants from laboratory-scale experiments to a point of sufficient technological readiness for industrial adoption and implementation. However, researchers face significant resource constraints as well as very aggressive pilot plant development timelines. Thus, the research strategies detailed in the US-FMCR require further assessment to downselect the specific tasks that must be prioritized within the next two to three years, in order to make the most efficient use of funding, human resources, and experimental facilities. This paper presents an overview of the US-FMCR and its development process. We also present the subset of research objectives that the FMCC identified as the most urgent research priorities for the U.S. fusion materials research community. The state-of-the-art of materials research is also highlighted for each class of materials considered in the US-FMCR. The recommendations presented here integrate an extensive evaluation of the current status of fusion materials research with a broad cross-section of opinion from the wider U.S. fusion community.

Ferry, Sara [Massachusetts Institute of Technology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enabling end-to-end secure federated learning in biomedical research on heterogeneous computing environments with APPFLx

Facilitating large-scale, cross-institutional collaboration in biomedical machine learning (ML) projects requires a trustworthy and resilient federated learning (FL) environment to ensure that sensitive information such as protected health information is kept confidential. Specifically designed for this purpose, this work introduces APPFLx - a low-code, easy-to-use FL framework that enables easy setup, configuration, and running of FL experiments. APPFLx removes administrative boundaries of research organizations and healthcare systems while providing secure end-to-end communication, privacy-preserving functionality, and identity management. Furthermore, it is completely agnostic to the underlying computational infrastructure of participating clients, allowing an instantaneous deployment of this framework into existing computing infrastructures. Experimentally, the utility of APPFLx is demonstrated in two case studies: (1) predicting participant age from electrocardiogram (ECG) waveforms, and (2) detecting COVID-19 disease from chest radiographs. Here, ML models were securely trained across heterogeneous computing resources, including a combination of on-premise high-performance computing and cloud computing facilities. By securely unlocking data from multiple sources for training without directly sharing it, these FL models enhance generalizability and performance compared to centralized training models while ensuring data remains protected. In conclusion, APPFLx demonstrated itself as an easy-to-use framework for accelerating biomedical studies across organizations and healthcare systems on large datasets while maintaining the protection of private medical data.

Biomedical Research↗
DOE OSTI2022

Digitalization of an experimental electrochemical reactor via the smart manufacturing innovation platform

The exponential increase in data produced over the last two decades has revolutionized the way we collect, store, process, analyze, model, and interpret information to improve profitability. Manufacturing is no exception. How- ever, Smart Manufacturing, the digital practice, organization, workforce, and infrastructure transformation for collection and deployment of data and models at scale and at all levels of manufacturing, is a complex, costly, and labor-intensive journey that is still seeing slow adoption. The Clean Energy Smart Manufacturing Innovation Institute (CESMII), a national Manufacturing USA public-private partnership sponsored by the Department of Energy, is addressing this scaled use of data and modeling in manufacturing. CESMII has focused on how to col- lect and use operating data for numerous applications that improve productivity, precision, and performance of manufacturing operations from factory floor to supply chain using process simulation, predictive analytics, mon- itoring and control, and real-time optimization. Because contextualized data are key, CESMII has developed the Smart Manufacturing Innovation Platform (SMIP) to lower the barriers to the data that are needed to accelerate data-based model building, improve data visualization, and more quickly gain insights. Reusable, standards-based ways of doing data collection, ingestion, and contextualization are particularly important for scaling access and use of data. The SMIP uses a standards-based definition and construct for reusable information models called an SM Profile. When an SM Profile is used in conjunction with the SMIP, the SMIP ensures the availability of contextualized, operational data for model building. The present work demonstrates Smart Manufacturing and the application of the SMIP for building several data-centered models for the operation and control of an ex- perimental electrochemical reactor that reduces carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) gas to valuable liquid and gas chemicals, such as alcohols, olefins, and syngas. We describe how the SMIP plays a central role in more effective model building and we demonstrate how the electochemical reactor can be controlled and optimized for the desired products. Use of the SMIP involves the transmission of real-time sensor measurements to a cloud resource so that the operating data are available to all model building experts. The data collection and transmission process is fully automated to greatly reduce the need for manual manipulation of the data. Data-driven machine learning models are used for advanced real-time state estimation, real-time optimization, and model-based feedback control for the reactor. The application models are implemented as a system to monitor the data flow and control the electrochemical reactor with a single visualization interface. SM Profiles are used to demonstrate reusability of the information models for the reactor and the instrumentation. The application packages, algorithms, and user interfaces developed are cast as Docker images in a library to facilitate reusability of the application models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Developing energy flexibility in clusters of buildings: A critical analysis of barriers from planning to operation

This paper examines building energy flexibility at an aggregated level and addresses the main barriers and research gaps for the development of this resource across three design and development phases: market and policy, early planning and design, and operation. We review methodologies and tools and discuss barriers, challenges, and opportunities, incorporating policy, economic, technical, professional, and social perspectives. Although various legal and regulatory frameworks exist to foster the development of energy flexibility for small buildings, financing mechanisms are limited with a significant number of perceived risks undermining private investment. For the early planning and design phase, planners and designers lack appropriate tools and face interoperability challenges, which often results in insufficient consideration of demand response programs. The review of the operational phase highlighted the socio-technical challenges related to both the complexity of deployment and communication, as well as privacy and acceptability issues. Finally, the paper proposes a number of targeted research directions to address challenges and promote greater energy flexibility deployments, including capturing building demand side dynamics, improving baseline estimations and developing seamless connectivity between buildings and districts.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Farmer characteristics and decision-making: A model for bioenergy crop adoption

We report the commercial development of biofuels and bioproducts depends on whether renewable biomass feedstock is available while not directly competing with the production of food. Farmers are one of the most important stakeholders in the biofuel supply chain and confront a range of uncertainties while entering the bioenergy market. Their decision-making process is extremely complex and rarely purely rational. Modeling farmer behavior requires considering a wide range of individual-level factors, socio-temporal dynamics, institutional settings, and their interactions. These characteristics make agent-based modeling a suitable framework for evaluating such systems. We developed a model to simulate farmer bioenergy crop adoption behavior across a 50-county study region in Nebraska, Kansas, and Colorado. The analysis considers adoption decisions for two bioenergy feedstocks, crop residues and energy crops. We examine the influence of individual and farm characteristics, market structure, social networks, and media influence on farmer adoption decisions. Our results indicate that different factors can have varied impacts on the speed of adoption for the crop residues and energy crops. Identifying levers that have the most impact on grower adoption can inform the design of interventions both from policy and private sector standpoints with important implications for the future the bioenergy industry.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Linkages between Policy and Business Innovation in the Development of China’s Energy Performance Contracting Market

China has a large and growing energy performance contracting (EPC) market, which has played a significant role in driving energy efficiency retrofits and improvements This paper evaluates how policies and business innovations have worked synergistically to expand China’s EPC market. We analyze the interconnected roles of four key factors: incentive policies, China’s Five-Year Plans, and business innovations in diversifying contract models and strengthening measurement and verification. We use multiple data sources for the analysis, including detailed information on business choices in 21 pilot projects, industry-wide surveys, and policy information. Our study indicates that supportive policies were important for the initial market development. As the market was established and continued to grow, the private sector started to take initiatives to address the issues that are left out of the policies, which helped overcome certain market barriers and enabled the sustainable growth of the market. Future policies could incorporate the successful innovations from the businesses to ensure long-term development of China’s EPC market. Understanding these policy and business drivers in a holistic way is critical to understanding how China was able to leverage its relatively small policy investments into much larger transformation of its existing buildings and industrial facilities through energy efficiency retrofits. This in turn can be informative for other countries seeking to achieve large-scale energy efficiency improvements.

Zhou, Yuanrong↗
DOE OSTI2020

Identifying institutional barriers and policy implications for sustainable energy technology adoption among large organizations in California

Large organizations wield considerable market power, their procurement activities can be leveraged to achieve social, economic and environmental goals by ‘pulling’ more desirable products into the market. However, while there is substantial research in individual consumer buying behavior and market barriers to sustainable technology adoption, less is known about large organizational buying behavior and the impact of institutional barriers in this area. To address these research gaps, in this work we conducted an exploratory study aimed at better understanding the process through which large organizations purchase sustainable energy technologies and what internal barriers they experience during that process. Additionally, we surveyed and interviewed 120 individuals involved in procurement from Californian organizations representing both public and private sectors. Survey results indicate the need to resolve the conflict between prioritizing lowest first cost and lowest life cycle cost, better engage multiple stakeholders involved in internal decision-making around purchasing, and improve existing procurement tools or offer new ones. We provide recommendations for how policymakers can apply our findings to increase the adoption of sustainable energy technologies in their own organizations and communities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cataloging US state policy patterns towards microgrid deployment

Frequent extreme weather events have called for rigorous and timely efforts for alternative non-wire solutions. These efforts are getting more widespread to offer a perfect alternative as the conventional grid becomes progressively less resilient. One of these solutions is microgrids that can disconnect from the grid and offer grid resilience during an outage. While this technology is still finding its footing in the industry, states across the US are employing policy patterns and forms of instruments to support its deployment. This study includes a systemic review of the US by conducting a binary analysis of all 50 states (including Washington D.C, excluding other US territories) using seven variables. The results show four major policy approaches to microgrids: i) supporting microgrids through a definitive legislative activity leading to further policy action; ii) direct efforts from the public utilities commissions without a concrete legislative push; iii) initiatives from institutions other than the commissions; and lastly, iv) self-initiated community and private consumer efforts. The results help understand what policy instruments are being used in each of these patterns to support this niche technology that still faces regulatory challenges.

Furqan, Maham↗
DOE OSTI2023

Extremely rapid, Lagrangian modeling of 2D flooding: A rivulet-based approach

Estimates of potential flood inundation areas and depths are critical to informing the preparedness, response, and investment decisions of many government agencies and private sector organizations, especially under a changing climate. The standard modeling approaches, however, are often either computationally intensive or constrained in their accuracy or applicability. A novel, rivulet-based, 2D model of pluvial flooding is described in this article that is 10,000 to 10 million times less computationally complex than the full solution of the shallow water equations, yet achieves inundation area hit rates of between 0.8 and 0.9 and relative absolute mean errors of 10%-20% across a wide range of flow depths. This combination of accuracy and efficiency will enable real-time depth estimates during flood events, detailed sensitivity analyses, and the generation of large ensembles to support broad uncertainty analyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Can we have clean energy and grow our crops too? Solar siting on agricultural land in the United States

We report a record amount of large-scale solar development is proposed and under construction in the US Midwest, much of it on agricultural land. This article contributes to the social science literature on renewable energy and public acceptance by addressing stakeholder perspectives on developing utility-scale solar power on agricultural land and complex institutional dynamics that shape these siting decisions. How do stakeholders’ interactions coproduce solar siting decisions? How are the existing complex contexts of energy and agricultural systems affecting solar siting? Who are the stakeholders involved in agricultural solar siting, and how do their epistemic paradigms about using agricultural land, especially prime farmland, differ? To answer these questions, interviews were conducted and analyzed across energy, agriculture, government, and expert stakeholder groups, focusing on Michigan, with comparison to other states. The results provide a conceptual map of stakeholder interaction related to solar development on farmland and characterize the main epistemic paradigms shaping stakeholder conflict. Issues shaping agricultural community perceptions include identity and farmland, the decisions of local farmland renters and non-operating landlords, prime versus lower quality farmland, farm financial viability, and farmland as private property or a public good. Some scientists and engineers seek to alleviate conflicts and drawbacks of agricultural land conversion for solar use by combining farming and solar energy generation: a practice called agrivoltaics. We argue that agrivoltaics are currently treated as a technological fix by not accounting for stakeholder interaction in complex policy, community, and scientific institutions. We conclude by identifying interdisciplinary research priorities to develop socially robust designs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗