Sequential Probabilities and the Learning and Retention of Tracking Skill
Sequential probabilities, and learning and retention of tracking task skill
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Detection of the Earth with the SETI microwave observing system assumed to be operating out in the galaxy
This paper estimates the maximum range at which radar signals from the Earth could be detected by a search system similar to the NASA Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence Microwave Observing Project (SETI MOP) assumed to be operating out in the galaxy. Figures are calculated for the Targeted Search, and for the Sky Survey parts of the MOP, both operating, as currently planned, in the second half of the decade of the 1990s. Only the most powerful terrestrial transmitters are considered, namely, the planetary radar at Arecibo in Puerto Rico, and the ballistic missile early warning systems (BMEWS). In each case the probabilities of detection over the life of the MOP are also calculated. The calculation assumes that we are only in the eavesdropping mode. Transmissions intended to be detected by SETI systems are likely to be much stronger and would of course be found with higher probability to a greater range. Also, it is assumed that the transmitting civilization is at the same level of technological evolution as ours on Earth. This is very improbable. If we were to detect another technological civilization, it would, on statistical grounds, be much older than we are and might well have much more powerful transmitters. Both factors would make detection by the NASA MOP a much more likely outcome.
NASA Center ARC↗
Evidence for hot gaseous coronae around the Magellanic Clouds
High-dispersion IUE far-UV spectra were obtained for five stars in the LMC and two stars in the SMC. At Magellanic Cloud velocities, all the spectra exhibit very strong interstellar lines of Al III, Si IV, and C IV, in addition to the usual lower ionization stage lines associated with H I region absorption. In two stars interstellar N V is also detected at the 50 mA level. From a consideration of the strength, width, and radial velocity of these high ionization stage lines, it is argued that regions of hot halo gas have probably been detected in front of the Magellanic Clouds. The regions detected exhibit absorption characteristics very similar to that of the Milky Way corona described previously by Savage and de Boer (1979). A cloud detected in the line of sight to HD 5980 in the SMC at a radial velocity of 300 km/s is of unknown origin.
De Boer, K. S.↗
Constraining Gamma-Ray Pulsar Gap Models with a Simulated Pulsar Population
With the large sample of young gamma-ray pulsars discovered by the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT), population synthesis has become a powerful tool for comparing their collective properties with model predictions. We synthesised a pulsar population based on a radio emission model and four gamma-ray gap models (Polar Cap, Slot Gap, Outer Gap, and One Pole Caustic). Applying gamma-ray and radio visibility criteria, we normalise the simulation to the number of detected radio pulsars by a select group of ten radio surveys. The luminosity and the wide beams from the outer gaps can easily account for the number of Fermi detections in 2 years of observations. The wide slot-gap beam requires an increase by a factor of 10 of the predicted luminosity to produce a reasonable number of gamma-ray pulsars. Such large increases in the luminosity may be accommodated by implementing offset polar caps. The narrow polar-cap beams contribute at most only a handful of LAT pulsars. Using standard distributions in birth location and pulsar spin-down power (E), we skew the initial magnetic field and period distributions in a an attempt to account for the high E Fermi pulsars. While we compromise the agreement between simulated and detected distributions of radio pulsars, the simulations fail to reproduce the LAT findings: all models under-predict the number of LAT pulsars with high E , and they cannot explain the high probability of detecting both the radio and gamma-ray beams at high E. The beaming factor remains close to 1.0 over 4 decades in E evolution for the slot gap whereas it significantly decreases with increasing age for the outer gaps. The evolution of the enhanced slot-gap luminosity with E is compatible with the large dispersion of gamma-ray luminosity seen in the LAT data. The stronger evolution predicted for the outer gap, which is linked to the polar cap heating by the return current, is apparently not supported by the LAT data. The LAT sample of gamma-ray pulsars therefore provides a fresh perspective on the early evolution of the luminosity and beam width of the gamma-ray emission from young pulsars, calling for thin and more luminous gaps.
Pierbattista, Marco↗
Analyzing the Subjectivity of Hole-Type Image Quality Indicators for Radiography
Hole-type penetrameters used as image quality indicators (IQIs) for radiography have an inherent degree of subjectivity to their interpretation. The 1T (one times the thickness of the penetrameter) hole is so small, it can be difficult to distinguish from noise. It is suspected that an operator’s knowledge of the true location of the 1T hole may subconsciously influence a false positive identification of the 1T hole when in fact it cannot be discerned. In the case of computed radiography (CR), the size of the phosphor particles may lead to a noise pattern with features on the scale of the 1T hole. Per NASA-STD-5009, the 1T hole must be detected in order to achieve adequate sensitivity. This is based on the historical understanding that this sensitivity will enable detection of the minimum detectable flaw sizes listed in the standard. It’s important to understand if 1T sensitivity is being achieved, and the associated risk if not. This study sought to determine the true detectability of 1T-sized holes in aluminum and Inconel by creating and inspecting a set of penetrameters with randomly placed holes. Enough holes and vacant zones were created to enable a full probability of detection study with 90% detectability, 95% confidence. Testing is ongoing, but preliminary results have shown poor detectability. The detection rate is slightly better for Inconel than aluminum, slightly better using a micro-focus vs. mini-focus tube, and definitively better for film than CR. One of the key questions of this study is whether historical requirements for film are applicable for CR, and these initial findings suggest they may not be. There is also a requirement in the NASA standard for the minimum contrast-to-noise ratio of the hole. The results have shown that this numerical threshold does not correlate well with visual detection. This raises questions about the true nature of detection, in an age of image processing vs. human judgement. As the results indicate that the detection of 1T holes is unreliable, the next challenge will be determining what sensitivity is really achieved, and what is needed.
Erin Lanigan↗
Analyzing the Subjectivity of Hole-Type Image Quality Indicators for Radiography
Hole-type penetrameters used as image quality indicators (IQIs) for radiography have an inherent degree of subjectivity to their interpretation. The 1T (one times the thickness of the penetrameter) hole is so small, it can be difficult to distinguish from noise. It is suspected that an operator’s knowledge of the true location of the 1T hole may subconsciously influence a false positive identification of the 1T hole when in fact it cannot be discerned. In the case of computed radiography (CR), the size of the phosphor particles may lead to a noise pattern with features on the scale of the 1T hole. Per NASA-STD-5009, the 1T hole must be detected in order to achieve adequate sensitivity. This is based on the historical understanding that this sensitivity will enable detection of the minimum detectable flaw sizes listed in the standard. It’s important to understand if 1T sensitivity is being achieved, and the associated risk if not. This study sought to determine the true detectability of 1T-sized holes in aluminum and Inconel by creating and inspecting a set of penetrameters with randomly placed holes. Enough holes and vacant zones were created to enable a full probability of detection study with 90% detectability, 95% confidence. Testing is ongoing, but preliminary results have shown poor detectability. The detection rate is slightly better for Inconel than aluminum, slightly better using a micro-focus vs. mini-focus tube, and definitively better for film than CR. One of the key questions of this study is whether historical requirements for film are applicable for CR, and these initial findings suggest they may not be. There is also a requirement in the NASA standard for the minimum contrast-to-noise ratio of the hole. The results have shown that this numerical threshold does not correlate well with visual detection. This raises questions about the true nature of detection, in an age of image processing vs. human judgement. As the results indicate that the detection of 1T holes is unreliable, the next challenge will be determining what sensitivity is really achieved, and what is needed.
Erin Lanigan↗
Stimulus configuration determines the detectability of motion signals in noise
We measured the detectability of moving signal dots in dynamic noise to determine whether local motion signals are preferentially combined along an axis parallel to the direction of motion. Observers were asked to detect a signal composed of three dots moving in a linear trajectory among dynamic noise dots. The signal dots were collinear and equally spaced in a configuration that was either parallel to or perpendicular to their trajectory. The probability of detecting the signal was measured as a function of noise density, over a range of signal dot spacings from 0.5 degrees to 5.0 degrees. At any given noise density, the signal in the parallel configuration was more detectable than that in the perpendicular configuration. Our four observers could tolerate 1.5-2.5 times more noise in the parallel configuration. This improvement is not due merely to temporal summation between consecutive dots in the parallel trajectory. Temporal summation functions measured on our observers indicate that the benefit from spatial coincidence of the dots lasts for no more than 50 ms, whereas the increased detectability of the parallel configuration is observed up to the largest temporal separations tested (210 ms). These results demonstrate that dots arranged parallel to the signal trajectory are more easily detected than those arranged perpendicularly. Moreover, this enhancement points to the existence of visual mechanisms that preferentially organize motion information parallel to the direction of motion.
Non-NASA Center↗
The Safety Course Design and Operations of Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPV)
Following a Commercial Launch Vehicle On-Pad COPV (Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels) failure, a request was received by the NESC (NASA Engineering and Safety Center) June 14, 2014. An assessment was approved July 10, 2014, to develop and assess the capability of scanning eddy current (EC) nondestructive evaluation (NDE) methods for mapping thickness and inspection for flaws. Current methods could not identify thickness reduction from necking and critical flaw detection was not possible with conventional dye penetrant (PT) methods, so sensitive EC scanning techniques were needed. Developmental methods existed, but had not been fully developed, nor had the requisite capability assessment (i.e., a POD (Probability of Detection) study) been performed.
Saulsberry, Regor↗
Observations of optical counterparts of Gamma-Ray bursts
This is a final report for a contract begun in Dec. 1987 and ended in Mar. 1989 to use the existing Lincoln Laboratory Experimental Test Site in Socorro, NM to search for optical counterparts to gamma-ray bursts. The objective was to develop an autonomous staring system to search for stationary, transient optical flashes. The search was to use an existing 31-inch telescope equipped with a sensitive video detector. The approach for the search was to develop real-time processing software to monitor the video signal from the detector and to record any transient, point-like flashes that occurred in the field of view. The system would have been able to detect fainter flashes (B is approximately 15(sup m) in 1/30 s, delta(m(sub v)) = 0.25(sup m)) than other systems but lacked a large field of view (only 1.2 deg diameter) necessary to give a high probability of detecting a random flash on the sky. As such, the plan was to monitor known gamma-ray burst error boxes and wait for a repetition of an earlier event. The high payoff of good sensitivity with high angular resolution (1 pixel = 10sec) and good time resolution (30 s) to allow post-burst searches warranted funding if the cost was not prohibitive. The contract began in the middle of the three-year cycle for High Energy Astrophysics Gamma-Ray Astronomy Research and Analysis Program. This final report briefly describes the portion of the plan completed under the original contract.
Knight, Frederick K.↗
Statistical comparison of pooled nitrogen washout data of various altitude decompression response groups
This analysis was done to determine whether various decompression response groups could be characterized by the pooled nitrogen (N2) washout profiles of the group members, pooling individual washout profiles provided a smooth time dependent function of means representative of the decompression response group. No statistically significant differences were detected. The statistical comparisons of the profiles were performed by means of univariate weighted t-test at each 5 minute profile point, and with levels of significance of 5 and 10 percent. The estimated powers of the tests (i.e., probabilities) to detect the observed differences in the pooled profiles were of the order of 8 to 30 percent.
Edwards, B. F.↗
Multipurpose Pressure Vessel Scanner and Photon Doppler Velocimetry
Critical flight hardware typically undergoes a series of nondestructive evaluation methods to screen for defects before it is integrated into the flight system. Conventionally, pressure vessels have been inspected for flaws using a technique known as fluorescent dye penetrant, which is biased to inspector interpretation. An alternate method known as eddy current is automated and can detect small cracks better than dye penetrant. A new multipurpose pressure vessel scanner has been developed to perform internal and external eddy current scanning, laser profilometry, and thickness mapping on pressure vessels. Before this system can be implemented throughout industry, a probability of detection (POD) study needs to be performed to validate the system's eddy current crack/flaw capabilities. The POD sample set will consist of 6 flight-like metal pressure vessel liners with defects of known size. Preparation for the POD includes sample set fabrication, system operation, procedure development, and eddy current settings optimization. For this, collaborating with subject matter experts was required. This technical paper details the preparation activities leading up to the POD study currently scheduled for winter 2015/2016. Once validated, this system will be a proven innovation for increasing the safety and reliability of necessary flight hardware. Additionally, testing of frangible joint requires Photon Doppler Velocimetry (PDV) and Digital Image Correlation instrumentation. There is often noise associated with PDV data, which necessitates a frequency modulation (FM) signal-to-noise pre-test. Generally, FM radio works by varying the carrier frequency and mixing it with a fixed frequency source, creating a beat frequency which is represented by audio frequency that can be heard between about 20 to 20,000 Hz. Similarly, PDV reflects a shifted frequency (a phenomenon known as the Doppler Effect) from a moving source and mixes it with a fixed source frequency, which results in a beat frequency. However, for PDV, discerning the signal from the noise is difficult without a moving source to induce the modulation. A rotating wheel is currently being used as the moving source but its configuration is impractical and has cumbersome placement inside the current frangible joint test cell. As a way to combat this problem and verify a satisfactory signal-to-noise ratio, a reflective moving crystal piezo will be used to modulate a beat frequency, and an absorptive target will be used to block the signal in order to determine any back reflection coming from the probe and discern the true signal-to-noise ratio. The piezo will be mounted and inserted onto the test table on an extendable telescopic antenna grounded by a magnetic base in the test zone. This piezo configuration will be more compatible within the test zone and allow for easy removal of the disk following acceptable signal verification and prior to frangible joint tests.
Ellis, Tayera↗
Multipurpose Pressure Vessel Scanner and Photon Doppler Velocimetry
Critical flight hardware typically undergoes a series of nondestructive evaluation methods to screen for defects before it is integrated into the flight system. Conventionally, pressure vessels have been inspected for flaws using a technique known as fluorescent dye penetrant, which is biased to inspector interpretation. An alternate method known as eddy current is automated and can detect small cracks better than dye penetrant. A new multipurpose pressure vessel scanner has been developed to perform internal and external eddy current scanning, laser profilometry, and thickness mapping on pressure vessels. Before this system can be implemented throughout industry, a probability of detection (POD) study needs to be performed to validate the system’s eddy current crack/flaw capabilities. The POD sample set will consist of 6 flight-like metal pressure vessel liners with defects of known size. Preparation for the POD includes sample set fabrication, system operation, procedure development, and eddy current settings optimization. For this, collaborating with subject matter experts was required. This technical paper details the preparation activities leading up to the POD study currently scheduled for winter 2015/2016. Once validated, this system will be a proven innovation for increasing the safety and reliability of necessary flight hardware.Additionally, testing of frangible joint requires Photon Doppler Velocimetry (PDV) and Digital Image Correlation instrumentation. There is often noise associated with PDV data, which necessitates a frequency modulation (FM) signal-to-noise pre-test. Generally, FM radio works by varying the carrier frequency and mixing it with a fixed frequency source, creating a beat frequency which is represented by audio frequency that can be heard between about 20 to 20,000 Hz. Similarly, PDV reflects a shifted frequency (a phenomenon known as the Doppler Effect) from a moving source and mixes it with a fixed source frequency, which results in a beat frequency. However, for PDV, discerning the signal from the noise is difficult without a moving source to induce the modulation. A rotating wheel is currently being used as the moving source but its configuration is impractical and has cumbersome placement inside the current frangible joint test cell. As a way to combat this problem and verify a satisfactory signal-to-noise ratio, a reflective moving crystal piezo will be used to modulate a beat frequency, and an absorptive target will be used to block the signal in order to determine any back reflection coming from the probe and discern the true signal-to noise ratio. The piezo will be mounted and inserted onto the test table on an extendable telescopic antenna grounded by a magnetic base in the test zone. This piezo configuration will be more compatible within the test zone and allow for easy removal of the disk following acceptable signal verification and prior to frangible joint tests.Additionally, topics of what was learned and smaller tasks given at White Sands Test Facility (WSTF) will be discussed. All statements in this paper are newly gained knowledge of what I have learned, observed, and have done while at WSTF.
Ellis, Tayera↗
Radar and infrared remote sensing of geothermal features at Pilgrim Springs, Alaska
High-altitude radar and thermal imagery collected by the NASA research aircraft WB57F were used to examine the structural setting and distribution of radiant temperatures of geothermal anomalies in the Pilgrim Springs, Alaska area. Like-polarized radar imagery with perpendicular look directions provides the best structural data for lineament analysis, although more than half the mapped lineaments are easily detectable on conventional aerial photography. Radiometer data and imagery from a thermal scanner were used to evaluate radiant surface temperatures, which ranged from 3 to 17 C. The evening imagery, which utilized density-slicing techniques, detected thermal anomalies associated with geothermal heat sources. The study indicates that high-altitude predawn thermal imagery may be able to locate relatively large areas of hot ground in site-specific studies in the vegetated Alaskan terrain. This imagery will probably not detect gentle lateral gradients.
Dean, K. G.↗
A search for Earth-approaching asteroids
New automated methods were developed for the detection and discrimination of Earth-approaching asteriods. Specifically, utilizing state-of-the-art, electron-bombarded, silicon diode, beam scanned, low light level television cameras and the most advanced video processing equipment available. The improvement of the limiting magnitude for a 50% probability of detection, increase the areal search rate, and minimize the burden on humans of the search effort. To this end, three increasingly automated and sophisticated versions of the data acquisition, storage, and processing systems, were designed and implemented. The celestial sphere were searched for Earth-approaching minor planets. An example of this effort is the recent cataloging of 1982 HS=3343 VNEDZEL. This particular high eccentricity, high inclination object is of a type even more rare than are Earth-approaching asteriods. Several of these were found.
Taff, L. G.↗
A Comparison of the Capability of Sensitivity Level 3 and Sensitivity Level 4 Fluorescent Penetrants to Detect Fatigue Cracks in Various Metals
In April 2008, NASA-STD-5009 established a requirement that only sensitivity level 4 penetrants are acceptable for NASA Standard Level liquid penetrant inspections. Having NASA contractors change existing processes or perform demonstration tests to certify sensitivity level 3 penetrants posed a potentially huge cost to the Agency. This study was conducted to directly compare the probability of detection (POD) of sensitivity level 3 and level 4 penetrants using both Method A and Method D inspection processes. POD demonstration tests were performed on 6061-Al, Haynes 188 and Ti-6Al-4V crack panel sets. The study results strongly support the conclusion that sensitivity level 3 penetrants are acceptable for NASA Standard Level inspections.
Parker, Bradford H.↗
Dejection and/or prevention of human diseases through remote sensing
The use of remote sensors for the detection of probable areas of disease infestation, and possibly as a tool in the control of these diseases, is discussed. Particular attention is given to malaria, encephalitis, and Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever. The vector ecology, epidemiology, and pathogenesis of these diseases are examined. The use of remote sensors to detect the presence of Red Tide is also discussed.
Edmisten, J. A.↗
Detection of the Carbon Monoxide Ion (CO+) in the Interstellar Medium and a Planetary Nebula
We report detection of the carbon monoxide ion (CO+) in the interstellar medium (Ml7SW) and a planetary nebula (NGC 7027). These detections are based on observations of three millimeter and submillimeter transitions in M17SW and one in NGC 7027. Chemical models suggest that CO+ should be most abundant where complex molecules are least likely to be present. In our search for CO+ we therefore minimized the chance of confusion while maximizing the probability of detection by observing regions whose chemistry is dominated by the effects of ultraviolet radiation.
Latter, William B.↗
Boundary detection criteria for satellite altimeters
A procedure for using satellite altimeter data to determine the time of crossing of a surface boundary, such as ocean land or ocean ice, with the primary objective to flag altimeter data that do not properly represent oceanographic measurements were studied. Water to land crossing and water to sea ice crossing were investigated. For ocean ice crossings, a large increase in AGC occurred. Waveform tests for increasing the probability of detecting an ocean land crossing were investigated. It is recommended that the boundary test be based on a fit of the full waveform to a limited parameter set at a rate of 5 to 10 second.
Martin, C. F.↗