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At least 217 records · Page 12

A Compendium of Wind Statistics and Models for the NASA Space Shuttle and Other Aerospace Vehicle Programs

The wind profile with all of its variations with respect to altitude has been, is now, and will continue to be important for aerospace vehicle design and operations. Wind profile databases and models are used for the vehicle ascent flight design for structural wind loading, flight control systems, performance analysis, and launch operations. This report presents the evolution of wind statistics and wind models from the empirical scalar wind profile model established for the Saturn Program through the development of the vector wind profile model used for the Space Shuttle design to the variations of this wind modeling concept for the X-33 program. Because wind is a vector quantity, the vector wind models use the rigorous mathematical probability properties of the multivariate normal probability distribution. When the vehicle ascent steering commands (ascent guidance) are wind biased to the wind profile measured on the day-of-launch, ascent structural wind loads are reduced and launch probability is increased. This wind load alleviation technique is recommended in the initial phase of vehicle development. The vehicle must fly through the largest load allowable versus altitude to achieve its mission. The Gumbel extreme value probability distribution is used to obtain the probability of exceeding (or not exceeding) the load allowable. The time conditional probability function is derived from the Gumbel bivariate extreme value distribution. This time conditional function is used for calculation of wind loads persistence increments using 3.5-hour Jimsphere wind pairs. These increments are used to protect the commit-to-launch decision. Other topics presented include the Shuttle Shuttle load-response to smoothed wind profiles, a new gust model, and advancements in wind profile measuring systems. From the lessons learned and knowledge gained from past vehicle programs, the development of future launch vehicles can be accelerated. However, new vehicle programs by their very nature will require specialized support for new databases and analyses for wind, atmospheric parameters (pressure, temperature, and density versus altitude), and weather. It is for this reason that project managers are encouraged to collaborate with natural environment specialists early in the conceptual design phase. Such action will give the lead time necessary to meet the natural environment design and operational requirements, and thus, reduce development costs.

Smith, O. E.↗

Climatic and Demographic Consequences of the Massive Volcanic Eruption of 1258

Somewhere in the tropics, a volcano exploded violently during the year 1258, producing a massive stratospheric aerosol veil that eventually blanketed the globe. Arctic and Antarctic ice cores suggest that this was the world's largest volcanic eruption of the past millennium. According to contemporary chronicles, the stratospheric dry fog possibly manifested itself in Europe as a persistently cloudy aspect of the sky and also through an apparently total darkening of the eclipsed Moon. Based on a sudden temperature drop for several months in England, the eruption's initiation date can be inferred to have been probably January 1258. The frequent cold and rain that year led to severe crop damage and famine throughout much of Europe. Pestilence repeatedly broke out in 1258 and 1259; it occurred also in the Middle East, reportedly there as plague. Another very cold winter followed in 1260-1261. The troubled period's wars, famines, pestilences, and earthquakes appear to have contributed in part to the rise of the European flagellant movement of 1260, one of the most bizarre social phenomena of the Middle Ages. Analogies can be drawn with the climatic aftereffects and European social unrest following another great tropical eruption, Tambora in 1815. Some generalizations about the climatic impacts of tropical eruptions are made from these and other data.

Stothers, Richard B.↗

Tethered Satellites as an Enabling Platform for Operational Space Weather Monitoring Systems

Tethered satellites offer the potential to be an important enabling technology to support operational space weather monitoring systems. Space weather "nowcasting" and forecasting models rely on assimilation of near-real-time (NRT) space environment data to provide warnings for storm events and deleterious effects on the global societal infrastructure. Typically, these models are initialized by a climatological model to provide "most probable distributions" of environmental parameters as a function of time and space. The process of NRT data assimilation gently pulls the climate model closer toward the observed state (e.g., via Kalman smoothing) for nowcasting, and forecasting is achieved through a set of iterative semi-empirical physics-based forward-prediction calculations. Many challenges are associated with the development of an operational system, from the top-level architecture (e.g., the required space weather observatories to meet the spatial and temporal requirements of these models) down to the individual instruments capable of making the NRT measurements. This study focuses on the latter challenge: we present some examples of how tethered satellites (from 100s of m to 20 km) are uniquely suited to address certain shortfalls in our ability to measure critical environmental parameters necessary to drive these space weather models. Examples include long baseline electric field measurements, magnetized ionospheric conductivity measurements, and the ability to separate temporal from spatial irregularities in environmental parameters. Tethered satellite functional requirements are presented for two examples of space environment observables.

Gilchrist, Brian E.↗

Future Exponential Economic Growth in Space

The human population and economy are now limited by the land area, materials and energy available on Earth. As explained by Malthus, human effort can increase this population limit only gradually and linearly at any fixed level of technology. The unexpected exponential increase in population since Malthus time is due to the even greater exponential increase in agricultural and industrial productivity due to modern technology. Current opinion is divided between the limiters who see fast approaching unavoidable limits to growth and growthers who expect continuing innovation and expansion. Given the minimum energy and food needed to support each human, the population of Earth is necessarily bounded. The past human exponential expansions were based on the invention of agriculture and industry. Continued expansion could occur with future colonization of the solar system. The initial occupation of near-Earth space would probably be for immediate military and economic gains rather than to escape the limits to growth on Earth. Space habitats could exploit solar system energy, materials, and living space, first in the Earth-moon system and later throughout the solar system. Space habitats would be supported by robotic power stations, mining, manufacturing, and transportation. These could travel to the stars with the addition of propulsion and nuclear power. Human expansion into the galaxy would allow continuing exponential growth and could establish a vast interconnected galactic civilization.

Jones, Harry W.↗

Certifying Acoustic Emission for the Crack Inspection of Integrated Pressure Components

To address the limitations of other nondestructive evaluation (NDE) methods on integrated components due to access constraints, a novel Acoustic Emission (AE) pressure vessel health test was developed in accordance with ASME BPVC.V Article 12. This test was then validated using notched Ti-6Al-4V panels taken to a stress level equivalent to 1.1 times the Maximum Allowable Working Pressure (MAWP) of a flight pressure vessel. The assessment involved utilizing JSC small sample Probability of Detection (POD) calculations, which represents the initial step towards obtaining flight certification for an NDE technique. A robust filtering technique that specifically identifies crack growth was formulated with the assistance of industry partners. This detection method exhibited superior detection ability compared to other NDE methods or microscopy. Within industry, the presence of a group of triangulated energetic crack-like indications typically leads to supplemental inspection or the failure of a tank. The experimental results confirm that this approach, commonly applied to more robust tanks, can be viably extended to integrated aerospace pressure components in scenarios where components can be subjected to pressures up to 1.1 times the MAWP. The testing process encountered delays due to sensor delivery and panel fabrication. Thus far, samples with crack initiators have shown energy levels 10 times higher than blunted controls. This suggests a trend where high individual and total cluster energy could be employed as acceptance criteria. Moreover, the cumulative energy of clusters might serve as a foundation for estimating crack sizes; however, this aspect requires further assessment and localized supplemental inspections are preferred.

certifying↗

Quantum chaos, integrability, and late times in the Krylov basis

Quantum chaotic systems are conjectured to display a spectrum whose fine-grained features (gaps and correlations) are well described by random matrix theory (RMT). We propose and develop a complementary version of this conjecture: quantum chaotic systems display a Lanczos spectrum whose local means and covariances are well described by RMT. To support this proposal, we first demonstrate its validity in examples of chaotic and integrable systems. We then show that for Haar-random initial states in RMTs the mean and covariance of the Lanczos spectrum suffice to produce the full long-time behavior of general survival probabilities including the spectral form factor, as well as the spread complexity. In addition, for initial states with continuous overlap with energy eigenstates, we analytically find the long-time averages of the probabilities of Krylov basis elements in terms of the mean Lanczos spectrum. This analysis suggests a notion of eigenstate complexity, the statistics of which differentiate integrable systems and classes of quantum chaos. Lastly, we clarify the relation between spread complexity and the universality classes of RMT by exploring various values of the Dyson index and Poisson distributed spectra.

Combinatorics↗

An integrated voice and data multiple-access scheme for a land-mobile satellite system

An analytical study is performed of the satellite requirements for a land mobile satellite system (LMSS). The spacecraft (MSAT-X) would be in GEO and would be compatible with multiple access by mobile radios and antennas and fixed stations. The FCC has received a petition from NASA to reserve the 821-825 and 866-870 MHz frequencies for the LMSS, while communications with fixed earth stations would be in the Ku band. MSAT-X transponders would alter the frequencies of signal and do no processing in the original configuration considered. Channel use would be governed by an integrated demand-assigned, multiple access protocol, which would divide channels into reservation and information channels, governed by a network management center. Further analyses will cover tradeoffs between data and voice users, probability of blocking, and the performance impacts of on-board switching and variable bandwidth assignment. Initial calculations indicate that a large traffic volume can be handled with acceptable delays and voice blocking probabilities.

Li, V. O. K.↗

Efficient probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis

A systematic and efficient method for probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis is proposed. The method is based on a most-probable-point-locus concept. The locus is obtained iteratively where the initial locus is determined using the linear approximation of the service life N(X) function about the mean values of the random variables X. Linear and quadratic approximations of N(X) are established locally at the most probable points, and the reliability analysis methods are used to compute the cumulative probabilities. By using two examples, the proposed method is demonstrated to be efficient and accurate. One example involved a random loading and N(X) was computed using cycle-by-cycle integration. The method is general and can be applied to other performance functions. It is particularly suitable when the computation of the performance function is time consuming such that Monte Carlo simulation is prohibitively costly.

Wu, Y.-T.↗

Decadal Variation of the Number of El Nino Onsets and El Nino-Related Months and Estimating the Likelihood of El Nino Onset in a Warming World

Examination of the decadal variation of the number of El Nino onsets and El Nino-related months for the interval 1950-2008 clearly shows that the variation is better explained as one expressing normal fluctuation and not one related to global warming. Comparison of the recurrence periods for El Nino onsets against event durations for moderate/strong El Nino events results in a statistically important relationship that allows for the possible prediction of the onset for the next anticipated El Nino event. Because the last known El Nino was a moderate event of short duration (6 months), having onset in August 2006, unless it is a statistical outlier, one expects the next onset of El Nino probably in the latter half of 2009, with peak following in November 2009-January 2010. If true, then initial early extended forecasts of frequencies of tropical cyclones for the 2009 North Atlantic basin hurricane season probably should be revised slightly downward from near average-to-above average numbers to near average-to-below average numbers of tropical cyclones in 2009, especially as compared to averages since 1995, the beginning of the current high-activity interval for tropical cyclone activity.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Description of quantum noise by a Langevin equation

General features of the quantum noise problem expressed as the equations of motion for a particle coupled to a set of oscillators are investigated analytically. Account is taken of the properties of the companion oscillators by formulating quantum statistical correlation Langevin equations (QSLE). The frequency of the oscillators is then retained as a natural cut-off for the quantum noise. The QSLE is further extended to encompass the particle trajectory and is bounded by initial and final states of the oscillator. The states are expressed as the probability of existence at the moment of particle collision that takes the oscillator into a final state. Two noise sources then exist: a statistical uncertainty of the initial state and the quantum dynamical uncertainty associated with a transition from the initial to final state. Feynman's path-integral formulation is used to characterize the functional of the particle trajectory, which slows the particle. It is shown that the energy loss may be attributed to friction, which satisfies energy conservation laws.

Metiu, H.↗

Inferring adversarial behaviour in cyber‐physical power systems using a Bayesian attack graph approach

Abstract Highly connected smart power systems are subject to increasing vulnerabilities and adversarial threats. Defenders need to proactively identify and defend new high‐risk access paths of cyber intruders that target grid resilience. However, cyber‐physical risk analysis and defense in power systems often requires making assumptions on adversary behaviour, and these assumptions can be wrong. Thus, this work examines the problem of inferring adversary behaviour in power systems to improve risk‐based defense and detection. To achieve this, a Bayesian approach for inference of the Cyber‐Adversarial Power System (Bayes‐CAPS) is proposed that uses Bayesian networks (BNs) to define and solve the inference problem of adversarial movement in the grid infrastructure towards targets of physical impact. Specifically, BNs are used to compute conditional probabilities to queries, such as the probability of observing an event given a set of alerts. Bayes‐CAPS builds initial Bayesian attack graphs for realistic power system cyber‐physical models. These models are adaptable using collected data from the system under study. Then, Bayes‐CAPS computes the posterior probabilities of the occurrence of a security breach event in power systems. Experiments are conducted that evaluate algorithms based on time complexity, accuracy and impact of evidence for different scales and densities of network. The performance is evaluated and compared for five realistic cyber‐physical power system models of increasing size and complexities ranging from 8 to 300 substations based on computation and accuracy impacts.

Sahu, Abhijeet↗

Spin-Dependent Stereochemistry: A Nonadiabatic Quantum Dynamics Case Study of S + H 2 → SH + H Reaction

We study the spin-dependent stereodynamics of the S + H 2 → SH + H reaction by using full-dimensional quantum dynamics calculations with zero total nuclear angular momentum along the triplet 3 A" states and singlet 1 A' states. We find that the interplay between the electronic spin direction and the molecular geometry has a measurable influence on the singlet–triplet intersystem crossing reaction probabilities. Our results show that for some incident scattering angles in the body-fixed frame, the relative difference in intersystem crossing reaction probabilities (as determined between spin up and spin down initial states) can be as large as 15%. Furthermore, our findings are an ab initio demonstration of spin-dependent nonadiabatic dynamics, which we hope will shine light as far as understanding the chiral-induced spin selectivity effect.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Dynamics of homogeneous cavitation with pressure feedback

Theoretical studies of homogeneous cavitation have largely been based on the classical nucleation theory. However, existing cavitation models cannot adequately describe its dynamics at nanosecond timescale, which has been called for in other fields. We develop a model coupling nucleation kinetics with cavity growth and pressure feedback as saturation mechanisms. Our numerical studies reveal the exponential dependence of cavitation characteristics such as saturation cavity density and most probable cavity radius on model parameters: Tolman length and initial pressure. This work also sheds light on the possibility of accurately determining Tolman length, whose value has a large spread in the literature.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Low cost fluidic sensors

The gyroscopic inertial sensors used in general aviation autopilots and in stability augmentation systems probably contribute more than any other component to the initial cost and to the continuing maintenance costs of these installations. Several fluidic devices which were developed to replace the gyroscopes in the conventional ""wing-leveler'' type autopilots used in small, general aviation airplanes are described. These sensors are characterized by simplicity of design, ease of fabrication, and lack of wearing parts. A unique, fluidic, true airspeed sensor is also described. All these devices are adapted to fabrication by low cost plastic molding techniques, and their lack of wearing parts promises long, maintenance free service lives.

Garner, H. D.↗

Photon escape probabilities in a semi-infinite plane-parallel medium

It is shown in this work how to obtain the probabilities of photons escaping from a cold electron plasma environment after having undergone an arbitrary number of scatterings. This is done by retaining the exact differential cross section for Thomson scattering as opposed to using its polarization and angle averaged form. The results are given in the form of recursion relations. The geometry used is the semi-infinite plane-parallel geometry witlh a photon source located on a plane at an arbitrary optical depth below the surface. Analytical expressions are given for the probabilities which are accurate over a wide range of initial optical depth. These results can be used to model compact X-ray galactic sources which are surrounded by an electron-rich plasma.

Williams, A. C.↗

Fluvial valleys in the heavily cratered terrains of Mars: Evidence for paleoclimatic change?

Whether the formation of the Martian valley networks provides unequivocal evidence for drastically different climatic conditions remains debatable. Recent theoretical climate modeling precludes the existence of a temperate climate early in Mars' geological history. An alternative hypothesis suggests that Mars had a globally higher heat flow early in its geological history, bringing water tables to within 350 m of the surface. While a globally higher heat flow would initiate ground water circulation at depth, the valley networks probably required water tables to be even closer to the surface. Additionally, it was previously reported that the clustered distribution of the valley networks within terrain types, particularly in the heavily cratered highlands, suggests regional hydrological processes were important. The case for localized hydrothermal systems is summarized and estimates of both erosion volumes and of the implied water volumes for several Martian valley systems are presented.

Gulick, V. C.↗

Characterization of Martian Soil Fines Fraction in SNC Meteorites

Some impact-melt glasses in shergottite meteorites contain large abundances of martian atmospheric noble gases with high (129)Xe/(132)Xe ratios, accompanied by varying (87)Sr/(86)Sr (initial) ratios. These glasses contain Martian Soil Fines (MSF) probably from young volcanic terrains such as Tharsis or Elysium Mons. The composition of the MSF bearing samples is different from the average bulk composition of the host rock. These samples show the following charecteristics: a) simultaeneous enrichment of the felsic component and depletion of the mafic component relative to the host phase and b) significant secondary sulfur/sulfate excesses over the host material. The degree of enrichment and associated depletion varies from one sample to another. Earlier, we found large enrichments of felsic (Al, Ca, Na and K) component and depletion of mafic (Fe, Mg, Mn and Ti) component in several impact melt glass veins and pods of samples ,77 ,78 , 18, and ,20A in EET79001 accompanied by large sulfur/sulfate excesses. Based on these results, we proposed a model where the comminution of basaltic rocks takes place by meteoroid bombardment on the martian surface, leading to the generation of fine-grained soil near the impact sites. This fine-grained soil material is subsequently mobilized by saltation and deflation processes on Mars surface due to pervasive aeolian activity. This movement results in mechanical fractionation leading to the felsic enrichment and mafic depletion in the martian dust. We report, here, new data on an impact-melt inclusion ,507 (PAPA) from EET79001, Lith B and ,506 (ALPHA) from EET79001, Lith A and compare the results with those obtained on Shergotty impact melt glass (DBS).

Rao, M. N.↗

Adsorption and solvation of ethanol at the water liquid-vapor interface: a molecular dynamics study

The free energy profiles of methanol and ethanol at the water liquid-vapor interface at 310K were calculated using molecular dynamics computer simulations. Both alcohols exhibit a pronounced free energy minimum at the interface and, therefore, have positive adsorption at this interface. The surface excess was computed from the Gibbs adsorption isotherm and was found to be in good agreement with experimental results. Neither compound exhibits a free energy barrier between the bulk and the surface adsorbed state. Scattering calculations of ethanol molecules from a gas phase thermal distribution indicate that the mass accommodation coefficient is 0.98, and the molecules become thermalized within 10 ps of striking the interface. It was determined that the formation of the solvation structure around the ethanol molecule at the interface is not the rate-determining step in its uptake into water droplets. The motion of an ethanol molecule in a water lamella was followed for 30 ns. The time evolution of the probability distribution of finding an ethanol molecule that was initially located at the interface is very well described by the diffusion equation on the free energy surface.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗