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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1979

Energy efficient engine: Propulsion system-aircraft integration evaluation

Flight performance and operating economics of future commercial transports utilizing the energy efficient engine were assessed as well as the probability of meeting NASA's goals for TSFC, DOC, noise, and emissions. Results of the initial propulsion systems aircraft integration evaluation presented include estimates of engine performance, predictions of fuel burns, operating costs of the flight propulsion system installed in seven selected advanced study commercial transports, estimates of noise and emissions, considerations of thrust growth, and the achievement-probability analysis.

Owens, R. E.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Constraints on Mechanisms of Chondrule Formation from Chondrule Precursors and Chronology of Transient Heating Events in the Protoplanetary Disk

The mineralogy, petrography, and oxygen-isotope compositions of porphyritic chondrules—dominant chondrule type in most chondrite groups—suggest formation by incomplete melting of isotopically diverse precursors during localized transient heating events in dust-rich regions of the protoplanetary disk characterized by 16O-poor compositions (D17Odust+gas~ –7‰ to +4‰) relative to the inferred Sun’s value (D17O ~ –28 ± 2‰). The chondrule precursors included Ca,Al-rich inclusions (CAIs), amoeboid olivine aggregates (AOAs), chondrules of earlier generations, fine-grained matrix-like material, and possibly fragments of pre-existing planetesimals. Like porphyritic chondrules, igneous CAIs formed by melting of isotopically diverse precursors during transient heating events, but in an isotopically distinct, solar-like reservoir of the protoplanetary disk (D17O dust + gas ~ –24‰), probably near the proto Sun. Based on a narrow range of the initial 26Al/27Alratios inferred from the internal Al-Mg isochrons in igneous CAIs, their melting started at the very beginning of Solar System formation (t0), defined by the CV CAIs with U-corrected Pb-Pb age of 4567.3 ± 0.16 Ma and the canonical 26Al/27Al ratio of (5.25 ± 0.02) ¥ 10–5, and lasted at least 0.3 Ma. The U-corrected Pb-Pb absolute and 26Al-26Mg relative ages of porphyritic chondrules from type 3 ordinary, CO, CV, and CR carbonaceous chondrites (assuming uniform distribution of 26Al in the disk at the canonical level) suggest chondrule formation started at t0 and lasted for about 4 Ma. These observations may preclude formation of the majority of porphyritic chondrules by splashing of differentiated planetesimals and by collisions between planetesimals; instead, they are consistent with melting of dust balls by bow shocks or magnetized turbulence in the disk. Some porphyritic chondrules in equilibrated (petrologic type 4–6) ordinary chondrites contain relict fragments of coarse-grained chromite, ilmenite, phosphates, and albitic plagioclase. The similar mineral assemblage is commonly observed in type 4–6 ordinary chondrites, but is absent in type 3 chondrites, suggesting these chondrules formed by incomplete melting of thermally metamorphosed ordinary chondrite material, possibly by impacts. The CB metal-rich carbonaceous chondrites contain exclusively magnesian non-porphyritic chondrules crystallized from complete melts. These chondrules formed in a gas-melt plume generated by a hypervelocity (≥20 km/s) collision between planetesimals ~4.8 Ma after t0 in a transition or a debris disk. One of the colliding bodies was probably differentiated. The CH metal-rich carbonaceous chondrites contain chondrules formed by different mechanisms. The magnesian non-porphyritic chondrules formed in the CB impact plume ~4.8 Ma after t0. The chemically diverse (magnesian, ferroan, and Al-rich) porphyritic chondrules formed by incomplete melting of isotopically diverse precursors in the protoplanetary disk, most likely prior the CB impact plume event. We conclude that there are multiple mechanisms of chondrule formation that operated over the entire life-time of the disk.

Chondrules↗
NASA NTRS1980

Tables of Transition Probabilities and Branching Ratios for Electric Dipole Transitions Between Arbitrary Levels of Hydrogen-Like Atoms

Branching ratios in hydrogen-like atoms due to electric-dipole transitions are tabulated for the initial principal and angular momentum quantum number n, lambda, and final principal and angular momentum quantum numbers n, lambda. In table 1, transition probabilities are given for transitions n, lambda, yields n, where sums have been made with respect to lambda. In this table, 2 or = n' or = 10, o or = lambda' or = n'-1, and 1 or = n or = n'-1. In addition, averages with respect to lambda' and sums with respect to n, and lifetimes are given. In table 2, branching ratios are given for transitions n' lambda' yields ni, where sums have been made with respect to lambda. In these tables, 2 or = n' or = 10, 0 or = lambda', n'-1, and 1 or = n or = n'-1. Averages with respect to lambda' are also given. In table 3, branching ratios are given for transitions n' lambda' yields in lambda, where 1 or = n or = 5, 0 or = lambda or = n-1, n n' or = 15, and 0 or = lambda' or = n(s), where n(s), is the smaller of the two numbers n'-1 and 6. Averages with respect to lambda' are given.

Omidvar, K.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Containment Assurance Risk Framework of the Mars Sample Return Program

The Mars Sample Return campaign aims at bringing rock and atmospheric samples from Mars to Earth through a series of robotic missions. These missions would collect the samples being cached and deposited on Martian soil by the Perseverance rover, place them in a container, and launch them into Martian orbit for subsequent capture by an orbiter that would bring them back. Given there exists a non-zero probability that the samples contain biological material, precautions are being taken to design systems that would break the chain of contact between Mars and Earth. These include techniques such as sterilization of Martian particles, redundant containment vessels, and a robust reentry capsule capable of accurate landings without a parachute. Requirements exist that the probability of containment not assured of Martian-contaminated material into Earth’s biosphere be less than one in a million. To demonstrate compliance with this strict requirement, a statistical framework was developed to assess the likelihood of containment loss during each sample return phase and make a statement about the total combined mission probability of containment not assured. The work presented here describes this framework, which considers failure modes or fault conditions that can initiate failure sequences ultimately leading to containment not assured. Reliability estimates are generated from databases, design heritage, component specifications, or expert opinion in the form of probability density functions or point estimates and provided as inputs to the mathematical models that simulate the different failure sequences. The probabilistic outputs are then combined following the logic of several fault trees to compute the ultimate probability of containment not assured. Given the multidisciplinary nature of the problem and the different types of mathematical models used, the statistical tools needed for analysis are required to be computationally efficient. While standard Monte Carlo approaches are used for fast models, a multi-fidelity approach to rare event probabilities is proposed for expensive models. In this paradigm, inexpensive low-fidelity models are developed for computational acceleration purposes while the expensive high-fidelity model is kept in the loop to retain accuracy in the results. This work presents an example of end-to-end application of this framework highlighting the computational benefits of a multi-fidelity approach.

Giuseppe Cataldo↗
NASA NTRS2003

Solar Array in Simulated LEO Plasma Environment

Six different types of solar arrays have been tested in large vacuum chambers. The low earth orbit plasma environment was simulated in plasma vacuum chambers, where the parameters could be controlled precisely. Diagnostic equipment included spherical Langmuir probes, mass spectrometer, low-noise CCD camera with optical spectrometer, video camera, very sensitive current probe to measure arc current, and a voltage probe to register variations in a conductor potential. All data (except video) were obtained in digital form that allowed us to study the correlation between external parameters (plasma density, additional capacitance, bias voltage, etc) and arc characteristics (arc rate, arc current pulse width and amplitude, gas species partial pressures, and intensities of spectral lines). Arc inception voltages, arc rates, and current selections are measured for samples with different coverglass materials and thickness, interconnect designs, and cell sizes. It is shown that the array with wrapthrough interconnects have the highest arc threshold and the lowest current collection. Coverglass design with overhang results in decrease of current collection and increase of arc threshold. Doubling coverglass thickness cases the increase in arc inception voltage. Both arc inception voltage and current collection increase significantly with increasing a sample temperature to 80 C. Sustained discharges are initiated between adjacent cells with potential differences of 40 V for the sample with 300 micron coverglass thickness and 60 V for the sample with 150 micron coverglass thickness. Installation of cryogenic pump in large vacuum chamber provided the possibility of considerable outgassing of array surfaces which resulted in significant decrease of arc rate. Arc sites were determined by employing a video-camera, and it is shown that the most probable sites for arc inception are triple-junctions, even though some arcs were initiated in gaps between cells. It is also shown that the arc rate increases with increasing of ion collection current. The analysis of optical spectra (240-800 nm) reveals intensive narrow atomic lines (Ag, H) and wide molecular bands (OH, CH, SiH, SiN) that confirms a complicated mechanism of arc plasma generation. The results obtained seem to be important for the understanding of the arc inception mechanism, which is absolutely essential for progress toward the design of high-voltage solar array for space application.

Vayner, Boris↗
NASA NTRS2004

Solar Array in Simulated LEO Plasma Environment

Six different types of solar arrays have been tested in large vacuum chambers. The low Earth orbit plasma environment was simulated in plasma vacuum chambers, where the parameters could be controlled precisely. Diagnostic equipment included spherical Langmuir probes, mass spectrometer, low-noise CCD camera with optical spectrometer, video camera, very sensitive current probe to measure arc current, and a voltage probe to register variations in a conductor potential. All data (except video) were obtained in digital form that allowed us to study the correlation between external parameters (plasma density, additional capacitance, bias voltage, etc) and arc characteristics (arc rate, arc current pulse width and amplitude, gas species partial pressures, and intensities of spectral lines). Arc inception voltages, arc rates, and current collections are measured for samples with different coverglass materials and thickness, interconnect designs, and cell sizes. It is shown that the array with wrapthrough interconnects have the highest arc threshold and the lowest current collection. Coverglass design with overhang results in decrease of current collection and increase of arc threshold. Doubling coverglass thickness causes the increase in arc inception voltage. Both arc inception voltage and current collection increase significantly with increasing a sample temperature to 80 C. Sustained discharges are initiated between adjacent cells with potential differences of 40 V for the sample with 300 m coverglass thickness and 60 V for the sample with 150 m coverglass thickness. Installation of cryogenic pump in large vacuum chamber provided the possibility of considerable outgassing of array surfaces which resulted in significant decrease of arc rate. Arc sites were determined by employing a video-camera, and it is shown that the most probable sites for arc inception are triple-junctions, even though some arcs were initiated in gaps between cells. It is also shown that the arc rate increases with increasing of ion collection current. The analysis of optical spectra (240-800 nm) reveals intensive narrow atomic lines (Ag, H) and wide molecular bands (OH, CH, SiH, SiN) that confirms a complicated mechanism of arc plasma generation. The results obtained seem to be important for the understanding of the arc inception mechanism, which is absolutely essential for progress toward the design of high-voltage solar array for space application.

Vayner, Boris↗
NASA NTRS1978

Core formation, evolution, and convection: A geophysical model

A model is proposed for the formation and evolution of the Earth's core which provides an adequate energy source for maintaining the geodynamo. A modified inhomogeneous accretion model is proposed which leads to initial iron and refractory enrichment at the center of the planet. The probable heat source for melting of the core is the decay of Al. The refractory material is emplaced irregularly in the lowermost mantle with uranium and thorium serving as a long lived heat source. Fluid motions in the core are driven by the differential heating from above and the resulting cyclonic motions may be the source of the geodynamo.

Ruff, L.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Core formation, evolution, and convection - A geophysical model

A model for the formation and evolution of the earth's core, which provides an adequate energy source for maintaining the geodynamo, is proposed. A modified inhomogeneous accretion model is proposed which leads to initial iron and refractory enrichment at the center of the planet. The probable heat source for melting of the core is the decay of Al-26. The refractory material is emplaced irregularly in the lowermost mantle with uranium and thorium serving as a long-lived heat source. Fluid motions in the core are driven by the differential heating from above and the resulting cyclonic motions may be the source of the geodynamo.

Ruff, L.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Data base management: MSTRAC (keynote paper), part 8

Technical Aspects of MST radars were discussed. The name of the group is MST Radar Coordination (MSTRAC). The geophysical parameters to be included in the sample data tapes were determined. It was suggested that MSTRAC compile a catalog of existing data at each of the facilities. It is found that: (1) there is a community of interested users for MST data; (2) the initial responses from observatories indicates that interest in MSTRAC is not overwhelming, probably because of time involved; and (3) the program needs reassessment.

Avery, S. K.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Crystallization of amorphous water ice in the solar system

Electron diffraction studies of vapor-deposited water ice have characterized the dynamical structural changes during crystallization that affect volatile retention in cometary materials. Crystallization is found to occur by nucleation of small domains, while leaving a significant part of the amorphous material in a slightly more relaxed amorphous state that coexists metastably with cubic crystalline ice. The onset of the amorphous relaxation is prior to crystallization and coincides with the glass transition. Above the glass transition temperature, the crystallization kinetics are consistent with the amorphous solid becoming a "strong" viscous liquid. The amorphous component can effectively retain volatiles during crystallization if the volatile concentration is approximately 10% or less. For higher initial impurity concentrations, a significant amount of impurities is released during crystallization, probably because the impurities are trapped on the surfaces of micropores. A model for crystallization over long timescales is described that can be applied to a wide range of impure water ices under typical astrophysical conditions if the fragility factor D, which describes the viscosity behavior, can be estimated.

NASA Center ARC↗
NASA NTRS2020

Nuclear Fusion Reactions in Deuterated Metals

Nuclear fusion reactions of D-D are examined in an environment comprised of high density cold fuel embedded in metal lattices in which a small fuel portion is activated by hot neutrons. Such an environment provides for enhanced screening of the Coulomb barrier due to conduction and shell electrons of the metal lattice, or by plasma induced by ionizing radiation (γ quanta). We show that neutrons are far more efficient than energetic charged particles, such as light particles (e−, e+) or heavy particles (p, d, α) in transferring kinetic energy to fuel nuclei (D) to initiate fusion processes. It is well-known that screening increases the probability of tunneling through the Coulomb barrier. Electron screening also significantly increases the probability of large- versus small-angle Coulomb scattering of the reacting nuclei to enable subsequent nuclear reactions via tunneling. This probability is incorporated into the astrophysical factor S(E). Aspects of screening effects to enable calculation of nuclear reaction rates are also evaluated, including Coulomb scattering and localized heating of the cold fuel, primary D-D reactions, and subsequent reactions with both the fuel and the lattice nuclei. The effect of screening for enhancement of the total nuclear reaction rate is a function of multiple parameters including fuel temperature and the relative scattering probability between the fuel and lattice metal nuclei. Screening also significantly increases the probability of interaction between hot fuel and lattice nuclei increasing the likelilhood of Oppenheimer-Phillips processes opening a potential route to reaction multiplication. We demonstrate that the screened Coulomb potential of the target ion is determined by the nonlinear Vlasov potential and not by the Debye potential. In general, the effect of screening becomes important at low kinetic energy of the projectile. We examine the range of applicability of both the analytical and asymptotic expressions for the well-known electron screening lattice potential energy Ue, which is valid only for E >> Ue (E is the energy in the center of mass reference frame). We demonstrate that for E ≤ Ue, a direct calculation of Gamow factor for screened Coulomb potential is required to avoid unreasonably high values of the enhancement factor f (E) by the analytical—and more so by the asymptotic—formulas.

Vladimir Pines↗
NASA NTRS2011

Neutron Activation Analysis of Single Grains Recovered by the Hayabusa Spacecraft

The Hayabusa spacecraft was launched on May 9, 2003 and reached an asteroid Itokawa (25143 Itokawa) in September 2005. After accomplishing several scientific observations, the spacecraft tried to collect the surface material of Itokawa by touching down to the asteroid in November. The spacecraft was then navigated for the earth. In encountering several difficulties, Hayabusa finally returned to the earth on June 12, 2010 and the entry capsule was successfully recovered. Initially, a g-scale of solid material was aimed to be captured into the entry capsule. Although the sample collection was not perfectly performed, it was hoped that some extraterrestrial material was stored into the capsule. After careful and extensive examination, more than 1500 particles were recognized visibly by microscopes, most of which were eventually judged to be extraterrestrial, highly probably originated from Itokawa [1]. Several years before the launching of the Hayabusa spacecraft, the initial analysis team was officially formed under the selection panel at ISAS. As a member of this team, we have been preparing for the initial inspection of the returned material from many scientific viewpoints [2]. Once the recovered material had been confirmed to be much less than 1 g, a scheme for the initial analysis was updated accordingly [3]. In this study, we aim to analyze tiny single grains by instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA). As the initial analysis is to be started in mid-January, 2011, some progress for the initial analysis using INAA is described here. Analytical procedure

Ebihara, M.↗
NASA NTRS1974

A study of two statistical methods as applied to shuttle solid rocket booster expenditures

The state probability technique and the Monte Carlo technique are applied to finding shuttle solid rocket booster expenditure statistics. For a given attrition rate per launch, the probable number of boosters needed for a given mission of 440 launches is calculated. Several cases are considered, including the elimination of the booster after a maximum of 20 consecutive launches. Also considered is the case where the booster is composed of replaceable components with independent attrition rates. A simple cost analysis is carried out to indicate the number of boosters to build initially, depending on booster costs. Two statistical methods were applied in the analysis: (1) state probability method which consists of defining an appropriate state space for the outcome of the random trials, and (2) model simulation method or the Monte Carlo technique. It was found that the model simulation method was easier to formulate while the state probability method required less computing time and was more accurate.

Perlmutter, M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Communicating the Threat of a Tropical Cyclone to the Eastern Range

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) has developed a tool to help visualize the Wind Speed Probability product from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and to help communicate that information to space launch customers and decision makers at the 45th Space Wing (45 SW) and Kennedy Space Center (KSC) located in east central Florida. This paper reviews previous work and presents the new visualization tool, including initial feedback as well as the pros and cons. The NHC began issuing their Wind Speed Probability product for tropical cyclones publicly in 2006. The 45 WS uses this product to provide a threat assessment to 45 SW and KSC leadership for risk evaluations with an approaching tropical cyclone. Although the wind speed probabilities convey the uncertainty of a tropical cyclone well, communicating this information to customers is a challenge. The 45 WS continually strives to provide the wind speed probability information to customers in a context which clearly communicates the threat of a tropical cyclone. First, an intern from the Florida Institute of Technology (FIT) Atmospheric Sciences department, sponsored by Scitor Corporation, independently evaluated the NHC wind speed probability product. This work was later extended into a M.S. thesis at FIT, partially funded by Scitor Corporation and KSC. A second thesis at FIT further extended the evaluation partially funded by KSC. Using this analysis, the 45 WS categorized the probabilities into five probability interpretation categories: Very Low, Low, Moderate, High, and Very High. These probability interpretation categories convert the forecast probability and forecast interval into easily understood categories that are consistent across all ranges of probabilities and forecast intervals. As a follow-on project, KSC funded a summer intern to evaluate the human factors of the probability interpretation categories, which ultimately refined some of the thresholds. The 45 WS created a visualization tool to express the timing and risk for multiple locations in a single graphic. Preliminary results on an on-going project by FIT will be included in this paper. This project is developing a new method of assigning the probability interpretation categories and updating the evaluation of the performance of the NHC wind speed probability analysis.

Winters, Katherine A.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Evolution of an impact-generated dust cloud and its effects on the atmosphere

A simulation is carried out of the evolution of an optically thick dust cloud in the earth's atmosphere, and calculations are made of the effects that such a dust cloud would have on the amount of visible light reaching the surface and the temperature at the earth's surface. It is found that large quantities of dust remain in the atmosphere for periods of only three to six months. This duration is fixed by the physical processes of coagulation; these cause the rapid formation of micron-sized particles and sedimentation that quickly removes the particles from the atmosphere. The duration of the event is found to be nearly independent of the initial altitude, initial particle size, initial mass, atmospheric vertical diffusive mixing rate, and rainout rate. It depends to a slight extent on the particle density and the probability that colliding particles stick together to form a larger particle. In addition, the duration is limited by the rate at which the debris spreads from the initial impact site. A doubling code is used to calculate the visible radiative transfer in the dust clouds. It is found that light levels are too low for vision for one to six months and too low for photosynthesis for two months to one year.

Toon, O. B.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Extension of Liouville Formalism to Postinstability Dynamics

A mathematical formalism has been developed for predicting the postinstability motions of a dynamic system governed by a system of nonlinear equations and subject to initial conditions. Previously, there was no general method for prediction and mathematical modeling of postinstability behaviors (e.g., chaos and turbulence) in such a system. The formalism of nonlinear dynamics does not afford means to discriminate between stable and unstable motions: an additional stability analysis is necessary for such discrimination. However, an additional stability analysis does not suggest any modifications of a mathematical model that would enable the model to describe postinstability motions efficiently. The most important type of instability that necessitates a postinstability description is associated with positive Lyapunov exponents. Such an instability leads to exponential growth of small errors in initial conditions or, equivalently, exponential divergence of neighboring trajectories. The development of the present formalism was undertaken in an effort to remove positive Lyapunov exponents. The means chosen to accomplish this is coupling of the governing dynamical equations with the corresponding Liouville equation that describes the evolution of the flow of error probability. The underlying idea is to suppress the divergences of different trajectories that correspond to different initial conditions, without affecting a target trajectory, which is one that starts with prescribed initial conditions.

Zak, Michail↗
NASA NTRS2014

A Monte Carlo Approach to Modeling the Breakup of the Space Launch System EM-1 Core Stage with an Integrated Blast and Fragment Catalogue

The Liquid Propellant Fragment Overpressure Acceleration Model (L-FOAM) is a tool developed by Bangham Engineering Incorporated (BEi) that produces a representative debris cloud from an exploding liquid-propellant launch vehicle. Here it is applied to the Core Stage (CS) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Space Launch System (SLS launch vehicle). A combination of Probability Density Functions (PDF) based on empirical data from rocket accidents and applicable tests, as well as SLS specific geometry are combined in a MATLAB script to create unique fragment catalogues each time L-FOAM is run-tailored for a Monte Carlo approach for risk analysis. By accelerating the debris catalogue with the BEi blast model for liquid hydrogen / liquid oxygen explosions, the result is a fully integrated code that models the destruction of the CS at a given point in its trajectory and generates hundreds of individual fragment catalogues with initial imparted velocities. The BEi blast model provides the blast size (radius) and strength (overpressure) as probabilities based on empirical data and anchored with analytical work. The coupling of the L-FOAM catalogue with the BEi blast model is validated with a simulation of the Project PYRO S-IV destruct test. When running a Monte Carlo simulation, L-FOAM can accelerate all catalogues with the same blast (mean blast, 2 σ blast, etc.), or vary the blast size and strength based on their respective probabilities. L-FOAM then propagates these fragments until impact with the earth. Results from L-FOAM include a description of each fragment (dimensions, weight, ballistic coefficient, type and initial location on the rocket), imparted velocity from the blast, and impact data depending on user desired application. LFOAM application is for both near-field (fragment impact to escaping crew capsule) and far-field (fragment ground impact footprint) safety considerations. The user is thus able to use statistics from a Monte Carlo set of L-FOAM catalogues to quantify risk for a multitude of potential CS destruct scenarios. Examples include the effect of warning time on the survivability of an escaping crew capsule or the maximum fragment velocities generated by the ignition of leaking propellants in internal cavities.

Richardson, Erin↗
NASA NTRS2013

Probabilistic Modeling of the Renal Stone Formation Module

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic tool, used in mission planning decision making and medical systems risk assessments. The IMM project maintains a database of over 80 medical conditions that could occur during a spaceflight, documenting an incidence rate and end case scenarios for each. In some cases, where observational data are insufficient to adequately define the inflight medical risk, the IMM utilizes external probabilistic modules to model and estimate the event likelihoods. One such medical event of interest is an unpassed renal stone. Due to a high salt diet and high concentrations of calcium in the blood (due to bone depletion caused by unloading in the microgravity environment) astronauts are at a considerable elevated risk for developing renal calculi (nephrolithiasis) while in space. Lack of observed incidences of nephrolithiasis has led HRP to initiate the development of the Renal Stone Formation Module (RSFM) to create a probabilistic simulator capable of estimating the likelihood of symptomatic renal stone presentation in astronauts on exploration missions. The model consists of two major parts. The first is the probabilistic component, which utilizes probability distributions to assess the range of urine electrolyte parameters and a multivariate regression to transform estimated crystal density and size distributions to the likelihood of the presentation of nephrolithiasis symptoms. The second is a deterministic physical and chemical model of renal stone growth in the kidney developed by Kassemi et al. The probabilistic component of the renal stone model couples the input probability distributions describing the urine chemistry, astronaut physiology, and system parameters with the physical and chemical outputs and inputs to the deterministic stone growth model. These two parts of the model are necessary to capture the uncertainty in the likelihood estimate. The model will be driven by Monte Carlo simulations, continuously randomly sampling the probability distributions of the electrolyte concentrations and system parameters that are inputs into the deterministic model. The total urine chemistry concentrations are used to determine the urine chemistry activity using the Joint Expert Speciation System (JESS), a biochemistry model. Information used from JESS is then fed into the deterministic growth model. Outputs from JESS and the deterministic model are passed back to the probabilistic model where a multivariate regression is used to assess the likelihood of a stone forming and the likelihood of a stone requiring clinical intervention. The parameters used to determine to quantify these risks include: relative supersaturation (RS) of calcium oxalate, citrate/calcium ratio, crystal number density, total urine volume, pH, magnesium excretion, maximum stone width, and ureteral location. Methods and Validation: The RSFM is designed to perform a Monte Carlo simulation to generate probability distributions of clinically significant renal stones, as well as provide an associated uncertainty in the estimate. Initially, early versions will be used to test integration of the components and assess component validation and verification (V&V), with later versions used to address questions regarding design reference mission scenarios. Once integrated with the deterministic component, the credibility assessment of the integrated model will follow NASA STD 7009 requirements.

kidney stones↗