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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1973

Proposed reliability cost model

The research investigations which were involved in the study include: cost analysis/allocation, reliability and product assurance, forecasting methodology, systems analysis, and model-building. This is a classic example of an interdisciplinary problem, since the model-building requirements include the need for understanding and communication between technical disciplines on one hand, and the financial/accounting skill categories on the other. The systems approach is utilized within this context to establish a clearer and more objective relationship between reliability assurance and the subcategories (or subelements) that provide, or reenforce, the reliability assurance for a system. Subcategories are further subdivided as illustrated by a tree diagram. The reliability assurance elements can be seen to be potential alternative strategies, or approaches, depending on the specific goals/objectives of the trade studies. The scope was limited to the establishment of a proposed reliability cost-model format. The model format/approach is dependent upon the use of a series of subsystem-oriented CER's and sometimes possible CTR's, in devising a suitable cost-effective policy.

Delionback, L. M.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Manufacturing Cost Analysis for PEM Electrolyzers and Perspectives for Future Cost Reduction

Electrolyzer capital costs strongly influence the total levelized cost of hydrogen production and have implications for hydrogen deployment. Current electrolyzer costs are high, and large cost reductions may be needed to achieve competitive hydrogen costs and targets. Understanding pathways for cost reduction via R&D and deployment is a critical research area for informed energy planning and enabling hydrogen use. This work presents bottom-up cost estimates of polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) electrolyzer systems tied to design specifications and discusses perspectives for cost reduction opportunities based on ongoing research. We use a detailed manufacturing and process model for a 1 MW PEM electrolyzer stack and balance of plant (BOP) for rigorous cost estimation. This allows for robust estimates of component and manufacturing costs and examination of key cost contributors. Stack costs are dominated by material costs such as iridium and platinum catalysts, especially at high manufacturing rates; power electronics and hydrogen purification equipment are the largest contributors to BOP cost. At higher manufacturing rates, better equipment utilization could reduce stack costs significantly, and we estimate that experience and bulk purchasing will allow for cost reductions to some BOP components. Still, many well-established BOP technologies and stack material costs are less likely to see significant cost reductions at high manufacturing rates. As such, manufacturing scale is limited in how much it can reduce electrolyzer costs, and additional advances for cost reduction may be needed to achieve cost targets. It will likely take many combined strategies to achieve significant cost reductions for electrolyzers and enable low-cost hydrogen production. We can use our manufacturing cost model to quantify potential cost reductions from the considerations described above and demonstrate pathways to lower cost electrolyzers. This allows for better understanding of cost reduction strategies and enables more informed research, development, and deployment for electrolyzers.

cost↗

DOE OSTI2022

Accelerated Scaling to Rapid Open-Air Fabrication of Durable Perovskite Solar Modules

The goals of this SETO project (DE-EE0008559, Accelerated Scaling to Rapid Open-Air Fabrication of Durable Perovskite Solar modules) are to address the principal challenges towards the successful commercialization of perovskite solar modules utilizing scalable, high-throughput open-air spray deposition. The successful outcome of the project will provide the foundation of an all open-air spray deposited perovskite solar module with hole transport layer (HTL), perovskite, electron transport layer (ETL), and barrier layer development while establishing a fundamental understanding of perovskite device behavior under accelerated aging conditions. Through this program, we have made significant progress towards a commercializable pathway for perovskites. (1) We’ve demonstrated the successful open-air deposition of perovskite and transport layer materials. These deposition methods were chosen for their inherent scalability, and open-air processing enables a significant reduction in processing costs. These methods are also compatible with high throughputs, demonstrating the fastest perovskite film deposition at these performance levels. (2) Development of a unique all-fiber laser scribing procedure provides a high-performance, low-cost method for further improvements in scalability. (3) Our group has also placed a unique emphasis on device stability. The development of testing standards for perovskite modules is required to thoroughly evaluate potential candidates for commercialization, and we’ve taken inspiration from current industry standards to provide an honest insight into the performance and reliability of our devices. (4) An extensive cost model detailing the specific contributions of each device layer and production component provides the most thorough evaluation of any perovskite technology against conventional silicon and compound semiconductor solar devices. The cost model is a critical advancement that will provide the foundation for evaluating the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of this technology.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2000

NASA's Design and Development of a Field Goniometer Instrument Using Solid Works

With NASA suffering severe funding cutbacks, engineers at NASA are required to produce state-of-the-art hardware with limited personnel and financial resources. In light of these constraints, the new NASA mandate is to build better, faster and cheaper. In April of 1998, Stennis Space Center's Commercial Remote Sensing Program contracted to the Systems Engineering Division at NASA Ames Research Center to develop a device known as a Field Goniometer. A Field Goniometer is a device that measures bi-directional reflectance of a target, such as vegetation, relative to the sun and an imaging system in an aircraft or spacecraft. The device is able to provide a spectral fingerprint of the surface it is measuring in wavelengths from 350nm-2500nm using a hyperspectral imager. To accomplish this project, several obstacles had to be overcome. First, the design had to be completed in less than four months. Second, due to the complexity of the design, the use of solid modeling was highly desirable but most of the group's solid modelers were assigned to other jobs. Third, the amount of funding available from the customer was one half to one third the funding typically expended for a job of this nature. Our choices for this project were to design with standard 2-D CAD systems currently used in-house or train additional engineers on our existing solids package or purchase a new solid model package. The use of a 2D CAD system was very undesirable due to the complexity of the design. Using our existing solids modeler would have required a learning curve for our engineers that would be incompatible with our schedule. Prior to this project, a member of our design group researched the solid modeling industry and decided to purchase SolidWorks. After examining the product for ease of use, modeling capability, training time required and cost, we decided our highest probability of success would be to design with Solidworks. During the design phase, our fabrication group was able to provide input at the very early stages, which added significant benefit to the final product. Fabrication cost and schedule savings have been realized by having complex part geometries translated directly from the SolidWorks design models to Surfcam and other computer-aided manufacturing (CAM) software. This direct model translation capability optimized the fabrication processes. The end result was that we were able to successfully complete the project on time and on budget. Other advantages of using SolidWorks, as cited by the design team, include a rapid negotiation of the initial learning curve, the ability to develop solid model hardware prototypes (used to communicate the design intent to both the customer and the fabricator), and the ability to work as a team collaborating on a large, complex model. These types of tools and efforts represent our response to NASA's challenge to produce higher quality products within shorter design and fabrication times.

Turner, Mark↗

DOE OSTI2026

Heliostat sizing methodology for concentrating solar thermal industrial process heat projects

This study presents a method to obtain a heliostat size that minimizes the levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of a heliostat-based concentrating solar thermal system for applications of solar heating for industrial processes at operating temperatures from 565 to 1550°C. The method extends prior work by embedding a routine for system design that obtains near-optimal subsystem sizes, increasing the fidelity of drive cost functions, and adding an optical performance model to supplement the previously developed cost models, which we update to reflect current pricing trends. An illustrative business case is developed for Daggett, California, targeting specified annual thermal energy outputs of 50 to 400 GWh th . Optical performance is modeled using verified estimates from the literature. A surrogate heliostat cost model, derived from commercial heliostat designs and scaled for production volume, installation, and operations and maintenance costs, is used to develop cost functions. Results show that heliostat size strongly affects the LCOH, producing a characteristic U-shaped trend with a robust near-optimal window of 7-20 m 2 ; the heliostat size producing the lowest project cost in our study grows slightly as the project size increases, and is reduced as the operating temperature increases. The findings in this study are consistent with the general trend of smaller heliostats being deployed at existing projects for high-temperature industrial process heat and reflect the significant reduction in power electronics and other per-heliostat costs. The methodology we propose is general and can be tailored to revised cost curves as the technology continues to evolve.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Heliostat Sizing Methodology for Solar Heat for Industrial Processes

This study presents a method to obtain a heliostat size that minimizes the levelized cost of a heliostat-based concentrating solar thermal system for industrial process heat (IPH) applications at operating temperatures from 565 to 1550 degrees Celsius. The method extends prior work by embedding a routine for system design that obtains near-optimal subsystem sizes, increasing the fidelity of drive cost functions, and adding an optical performance model. An illustrative business case is developed for Daggett, California, targeting specified annual thermal energy outputs of 50 to 400 GWhth. Optical performance is modeled using verified estimates from the literature. A surrogate heliostat cost model, derived from commercial heliostat designs and scaled for production volume, installation, and operations and maintenance costs, is used to develop cost functions. Results show that heliostat size strongly affects the levelized cost of heat (LCOH), producing a characteristic U-shaped trend with a robust near-optimal window of 8 - 12 m2; the heliostat size producing the lowest project cost in our study grows slightly as the project size increases, and is reduced as the operating temperature increases. The findings in this study are consistent with the general trend of smaller heliostats under deployment at existing projects for high-temperature industrial process heat and reflect the significant reduction in power electronics and other per-heliostat costs. The methodology we propose is general and can be tailored to revised cost curves as the technology continues to evolve.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1994

The associate principal astronomer telescope operations model

This paper outlines a new telescope operations model that is intended to achieve low operating costs with high operating efficiency and high scientific productivity. The model is based on the existing Principal Astronomer approach used in conjunction with ATIS, a language for commanding remotely located automatic telescopes. This paper introduces the notion of an Associate Principal Astronomer, or APA. At the heart of the APA is automatic observation loading and scheduling software, and it is this software that is expected to help achieve efficient and productive telescope operations. The purpose of the APA system is to make it possible for astronomers to submit observation requests to and obtain resulting data from remote automatic telescopes, via the Internet, in a highly-automated way that minimizes human interaction with the system and maximizes the scientific return from observing time.

Drummond, Mark↗

NASA NTRS1994

Operations and support cost modeling of conceptual space vehicles

The University of Dayton is pleased to submit this annual report to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center which documents the development of an operations and support (O&S) cost model as part of a larger life cycle cost (LCC) structure. It is intended for use during the conceptual design of new launch vehicles and spacecraft. This research is being conducted under NASA Research Grant NAG-1-1327. This research effort changes the focus from that of the first two years in which a reliability and maintainability model was developed to the initial development of an operations and support life cycle cost model. Cost categories were initially patterned after NASA's three axis work breakdown structure consisting of a configuration axis (vehicle), a function axis, and a cost axis. A revised cost element structure (CES), which is currently under study by NASA, was used to established the basic cost elements used in the model. While the focus of the effort was on operations and maintenance costs and other recurring costs, the computerized model allowed for other cost categories such as RDT&E and production costs to be addressed. Secondary tasks performed concurrent with the development of the costing model included support and upgrades to the reliability and maintainability (R&M) model. The primary result of the current research has been a methodology and a computer implementation of the methodology to provide for timely operations and support cost analysis during the conceptual design activities.

Ebeling, Charles↗

DOE OSTI2022

Techno-economic analysis of offshore wind PEM water electrolysis for H 2 production

A model for producing hydrogen via offshore wind electrolysis was developed and the levelized costs of both energy and hydrogen were calculated. Here, this model calculated the cost of hydrogen produced by offshore wind and showed that the levelized cost of energy for hydrogen production and transportation to shore could be lower than for electricity transmission from offshore wind farms, using real wind data from a particular location. Therefore, direct coupling of the electrolysis system with offshore wind turbine is more advantageous than transmitting electricity to shore and then producing hydrogen via traditional electrolysis; the cost of hydrogen from offshore wind electrolysis is estimated to be $\$2.09$/kg, vs $\$3.86$/kg from traditional electrolysis using wind power.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2020

GEOPHIRES v2.0

GEOPHIRES v2.0 is a geothermal techno-economic simulation tool upgraded from GEOPHIRES v1.2. The name stands for "GEOthermal energy for Production of Heat and electricity (“IR”) Economically Simulated". GEOPHIRES combines reservoir, wellbore, and surface plant technical models with cost correlations and levelized cost models to estimate the capital and operation and maintenance costs, instantaneous and lifetime energy production, and overall levelized cost of energy of a geothermal plant. In addition to electricity generation, direct-use heat applications and combined heat and power or cogeneration can be modeled. Various upgrades have been implemented to develop GEOPHIRES v2.0, including: updating the built-in cost correlations, coupling to the external reservoir simulator TOUGH2, enhancing the built-in wellbore simulator, converting the programming language to Python, and making the code open-source. Users are encouraged to build upon the tool, e.g. by implementing their own correlations or coupling to other simulators.

Beckers, Koenraad↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Towards A Flexible Data Fusion Tool Incorporating Model, Satellite, Regulatory Monitor and Low-Cost Sensor Data for Air Quality Estimation and Forecasting

Air quality managers, researchers, and concerned community scientists around the world have a variety of sources for air quality information, ranging from traditional regulatory monitoring networks and atmospheric chemistry models to remote sensing data products and low-cost sensor networks. However, the ability to incorporate data from these disparate sources and synthesize a comprehensive overview of the local air quality situation remains a considerable barrier for many end-users. This presentation will outline a tool, currently in development, which will address this need using a flexible data fusion approach. The tool will make use of air quality forecast model outputs (primarily from the NASA GEOS-CF composition forecast modeling system), satellite remote sensing data (from instruments including MODIS, VIIRS, TROPOMI, plus TEMPO for the US when available), and in-situ data from official regulatory and/or low-cost networks where these are available. The ability to incorporate data from low-cost sensor networks will be a key feature of the tool; it will make use of other available data sources to calibrate the low-cost sensor data on a regional scale, then use these calibrated low-cost sensor data for localized updating to resolve finer-scale air quality patterns. Development of this tool is taking place with the help of national and international partners and end-user groups, coordinated through the US EPA and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The tool is being developed on the Google Earth Engine cloud computing platform to facilitate integration of diverse data sources and free access by a broad community of end-users. Stewardship of the tool will be passed to US EPA and UNEP to support future activities with end-users in the US and around the world, and the tool itself will remain freely accessible. We hope that this tool will lower the barrier to entry for various user groups worldwide, including community scientists, who struggle to integrate disparate data sources to gain insight into their local air quality situations. This presentation will cover the early stages of the development of the tool, including the underlying methods and some pilot case studies in integrating low-cost sensor data.

global models↗

DOE OSTI2025

Current state and future projections of drying processes in the US food and pulp and paper sectors: Energy, economic, and environmental assessment

The pulp and paper (P/P) and food sectors are the third- and fifth-largest industrial energy consumers in the United States, with total on-site energy consumption of 2,039 TBtu and 1,144 TBtu, respectively. Thermal drying processes for moisture removal, which are energy-intensive, play a critical role in both industries. This study is the first to evaluate state- and national-level US drying energy demand for these sectors from 2020 to 2050. To complete this evaluation, we developed a thermodynamic modeling framework integrated with economic and environmental models to compute product-specific drying energy intensity and estimate the sector-specific costs and emissions profiles associated with drying operations. The model-predicted energy intensity was validated against the literature. Using current and projected annual production volumes in these sectors, we estimated total drying energy use. Results indicate that drying accounts for 22 % of total energy consumption in the P/P sector and 10 % in the food sector. The estimated annual energy cost (2020) to operate thermal dryers is $\$$919 M in the P/P sector and $\$$417 M in the food sector. Additionally, drying contributes to 25 % of total CO 2 e emissions in the P/P sector (including biogenic) and 15 % of emissions in the food sector. Regional performance shows that the Southern US is the leading energy consumer for P/P drying, whereas the Midwest leads in food drying. This study presents both potential solutions to enhance drying efficiency and barriers to implementation. Energy efficiency improvements, low-carbon fuels, and electrification are discussed as key pathways for reducing costs and optimizing industrial drying processes.

3E analysis↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multifunctional landscapes for dedicated bioenergy crops lead to low-carbon market-competitive biofuels

Switchgrass is a promising feedstock for cellulosic biorefineries, due to its ability to maintain comparatively high biomass yields across a wide range of soil and climatic conditions. However, there is an incomplete understanding of the economic and environmental tradeoffs associated with cultivating switchgrass on low-productivity land for conversion to biofuels. This study surveys prior literature and demonstrates a new integrated assessment framework, including agroecosystem, ecosystem services valuation, technoeconomic, and life-cycle assessment models, to quantify and contextualize the economic and environmental impacts of switchgrass cultivation on marginal land with downstream conversion to biofuels. Monetizing and incorporating the value of ecosystem services, such as improved water quality benefits from nitrate and sediment reductions, climate change mitigation benefits from CO 2 emission reduction, and recreational and pollination benefits from increased biodiversity, the modeled multifunctional landscape reduces the ethanol production cost by 33.3–58.9 cents/$\scriptsize{L}$-gasoline-equivalent ($\$$1.3–2.2/gge). Planting switchgrass in low productivity land improves soil health, resulting in the carbon footprint reduction credit of 12.8–20.2 gCO 2e /MJ. For an improved switchgrass-to-ethanol conversion pathway with the maximum benefits from ecosystem services, the minimum ethanol selling price and carbon footprint of ethanol, respectively, could reach to 31 cents/$\scriptsize{L}$-gasoline-equivalent (47% reduction relative to average gasoline price) and 3 gCO 2e /MJ (97% reduction relative to gasoline). In conclusion, this low carbon renewable ethanol leads to substantial State and/or Federal policy incentives (~$\$$1/$\scriptsize{L}$-gasoline-equivalent) providing a large benefit to biorefinery operators, farmers, and the public as a whole.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Electrochemical conversion of carbon dioxide into chemicals and fuels

CO 2 electrolysis could provide a route to recycle waste CO 2 back to useful carbon-based products that are the basis of today’s economy. Opus 12 worked together with LBNL staff to further develop their CO 2 conversion electrolyzer. Improvements were made to catalyst testing throughput and long-term testing up to 1000h. A basic techno-economic model was constructed to estimate the product cost of CO 2 -derived compounds.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1980

Software cost/resource modeling

The Putnam method for planning the time/work effort component of software development is evaluated. This software costing model, based on Norden-Rayleigh product life cycle concepts, was applied to four development projects. The time/effort tradeoff leading to savings attainable when development time on a project is extended by a few months is demonstrated. The software equation which relates the principal parameters of development time, total effort, system size, and the development environment is presented.

Golden, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Scale Model Icing Research Tunnel

NASA Lewis Research Center's Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) is the world's largest refrigerated wind tunnel and one of only three icing wind tunnel facilities in the United States. The IRT was constructed in the 1940's and has been operated continually since it was built. In this facility, natural icing conditions are duplicated to test the effects of inflight icing on actual aircraft components as well as on models of airplanes and helicopters. IRT tests have been used successfully to reduce flight test hours for the certification of ice-detection instrumentation and ice protection systems. To ensure that the IRT will remain the world's premier icing facility well into the next century, Lewis is making some renovations and is planning others. These improvements include modernizing the control room, replacing the fan blades with new ones to increase the test section maximum velocity to 430 mph, installing new spray bars to increase the size and uniformity of the artificial icing cloud, and replacing the facility heat exchanger. Most of the improvements will have a first-order effect on the IRT's airflow quality. To help us understand these effects and evaluate potential improvements to the flow characteristics of the IRT, we built a modular 1/10th-scale aerodynamic model of the facility. This closed-loop scale-model pilot tunnel was fabricated onsite in the various shops of Lewis' Fabrication Support Division. The tunnel's rectangular sections are composed of acrylic walls supported by an aluminum angle framework. Its turning vanes are made of tubing machined to the contour of the IRT turning vanes. The fan leg of the tunnel, which transitions from rectangular to circular and back to rectangular cross sections, is fabricated of fiberglass sections. The contraction section of the tunnel is constructed from sheet aluminum. A 12-bladed aluminum fan is coupled to a turbine powered by high-pressure air capable of driving the maximum test section velocity to 550 ft/sec (Mach 0.45). The air turbine and instrumentation are housed inside a fiberglass nacelle. Total and static pressure measurements can be taken around the loop, and velocity and flow angularity measurements can be taken with hot-wire and five-hole probes at specific locations. The Scale Model Icing Research Tunnel (SMIRT) is undergoing checkout tests to determine how its airflow characteristics compare with the IRT. Near-term uses for this scale-model tunnel include determining the aerodynamic effects of replacing the 52-yearold W-shaped heat exchanger with a flat-faced heat exchanger. SMIRT is an integral part of the improvements planned for the IRT because testing the proposed IRT improvements in a scale-model tunnel will lower costs and improve productivity.

Canacci, Victor A.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Cost Models for MMC Manufacturing Processes

Processes for the manufacture of advanced metal matrix composites are rapidly approaching maturity in the research laboratory and there is growing interest in their transition to industrial production. However, research conducted to date has almost exclusively focused on overcoming the technical barriers to producing high-quality material and little attention has been given to the economical feasibility of these laboratory approaches and process cost issues. A quantitative cost modeling (QCM) approach was developed to address these issues. QCM are cost analysis tools based on predictive process models relating process conditions to the attributes of the final product. An important attribute, of the QCM approach is the ability to predict the sensitivity of material production costs to product quality and to quantitatively explore trade-offs between cost and quality. Applications of the cost models allow more efficient direction of future MMC process technology development and a more accurate assessment of MMC market potential. Cost models were developed for two state-of-the art metal matrix composite (MMC) manufacturing processes: tape casting and plasma spray deposition. Quality and Cost models are presented for both processes and the resulting predicted quality-cost curves are presented and discussed.

Elzey, Dana M.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Techno-Economic Analysis of Biofuel Production via Catalytic Upgrading of Carbohydrates in Paper Sludge

A full-plant model was developed using correlations from a rigorous mass and energy balance and based on experimental results to determine the MFSP and its Sensitivity Analysis in the production of a hydrocarbon product from Paper Sludge. In this base case a preliminary MFSP of $5.97/GGE has been determined. This value is higher than the results reported in recent NREL reports. The difference is explained since much larger capacity plants are considered in those reports, and because we are not considering the production of co-products that bring the fuel costs down. The obtained model is being used to guide the next steps in our laboratory work since the team is now aware of which are the more sensitive process parameters "impacting" the MFSP of the final product.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗