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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Chemical Signatures of Seasonally Unique Anthropogenic Influences on Organic Aerosol Composition in the Central Amazon

Urbanization and fires perturb the quantities and composition of fine organic aerosol in the central Amazon, with ramifications for radiative forcing and public health. These disturbances include not only direct emissions of particulates and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) precursors, but also changes in the pathways through which biogenic precursors form SOA. The composition of ambient organic aerosol is complex and incompletely characterized, encompassing millions of potential structures relatively few of which have been synthesized and characterized. Through analysis of submicron aerosol samples from the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon2014/5) field campaign by two-dimensional gas chromatography coupled with machine learning, ~1300 unique compounds were traced and characterized over two seasons. Fires and urban emissions produced chemically and interseasonally distinct impacts on product signatures, with only ~50% of compounds observed in both seasons. Seasonally unique populations point to the importance of aqueous processing in Amazonian aerosol ageing, but further mechanistic insights are impeded by limited product identity knowledge. Further, less than 10% of compounds were identifiable at an isomer-specific level. Overall, the findings (i) provide compositional characterization of anthropogenic influence on submicron organic aerosol in the Amazon, (ii) identify key season-to-season differences in chemical signatures, and (iii) highlight high-priority knowledge gaps in current speciated knowledge.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dynamic Accounting of Carbon Uptake in the Built Environment

Transforming building materials from net life-cycle CO 2 e emitters to carbon sinks is a key pathway towards decarbonizing the industrial sector. Current life-cycle assessments of materials (particularly “low-carbon” materials) often focus on cradle-to-gate emissions, which can exclude emissions and uptake (i.e., fluxes) later in the materials’ life-cycle. Further, conventional CO 2 e emission characterization disregards the dynamic effects of the timing of emissions and uptake on cumulative radiative forcing from processes like manufacturing, biomass growth, and the decadal carbon storage in long-lived building materials. This work presents a framework to analyze the cradle-to-grave CO 2 e balance of building materials using a time-dependent global warming potential calculation. We apply this framework in the dynamic accounting of carbon uptake in the built environment (D-CUBE) tool and examine two case studies: concrete and cross-laminated timber (CLT). When accounting for dynamic effects, the long storage time of biogenic carbon in CLT results in reduced warming, while the slow rate of uptake via concrete carbonation does not result in significant reductions in global warming. The D-CUBE tool allows for consistent comparisons across materials and emissions mitigation strategies at varying life-cycle stages and can be adapted to other materials or systems with different lifespans and applications. The flexibility of D-CUBE and the ability to identify CO 2 e emission hot-spot life-cycle stages will be instrumental in identifying pathways to achieving net-carbon-sequestering building materials.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Atmospheric Brown Carbon on the Tibetan Plateau: Regional Differences in Chemical Composition and Light Absorption Properties

In this work, fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) filter samples were collected from two high-altitude remote sites located in the southern (QOMS) and northern (WLG) regions of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) to explore the regional differences in brown carbon (BrC) properties. Chemical differences in BrC composition representative of these two areas were inferred from molecular-level analysis of the PM 2.5 samples using high-performance liquid chromatography coupled with photodiode array and high-resolution mass spectrometry detectors. The results show that more polar BrC chromophores were abundant in QOMS samples, while contributions from polar and less polar chromophores were comparable in WLG samples. A higher mass absorption coefficient of BrC was observed at QOMS than at WLG. Strong BrC chromophores in QOMS samples were identified as oxygenated aromatics and nitrophenol compounds, while organosulfate compounds were found in the WLG sample. The results of this study indicate regional differences in BrC chromophores and provide insights into their sources and chemical processes, which should be considered for predictive understanding and modeling of the radiative forcing of aerosol in the TP area.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling the Impact of the Organic Aerosol Phase State on Multiphase OH Reactive Uptake Kinetics and the Resultant Heterogeneous Oxidation Timescale of Organic Aerosol in the Amazon Rainforest

Accurate predictions of chemical lifetime, i.e., oxidation timescale and change in the mass of organic aerosols (OAs) in atmospheric models, are critical to quantify the impacts of OA on aerosol–cloud interactions, radiative forcing, and air quality. The heterogeneous oxidation of OA by hydroxyl (OH) radicals is a key process governing OA mass changes during their oxidation. Recently, laboratory observations of the OH uptake coefficient (γ OH ) and heterogeneous reaction rate (k het,OH ) for different OA systems with varying phase states have been combined to develop a new parameterization of γ OH and k het,OH as a function of the OA phase state, i.e., viscosity (η OA ). Here, in this work, we use a recently published viscosity prediction framework to analyze the new γ OH and k het,OH parameterization with a box model. Subsequently, we implement this box model to predict γ OH and k het,OH over the Amazon rainforest in the dry-to-wet transition season with both significant biomass burning and biogenic influences. Relevant parameters within our box model are specified based on detailed regional model simulations over the Amazon using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem). η OA is predicted as a function of species volatility, OA composition (including water uptake) along with ambient relative humidity (RH), and temperature. Based on ambient conditions simulated by WRF-Chem over the entire atmospheric column, we use the box model to predict the upper bounds of the heterogeneous oxidation timescale of OA. Based on previous laboratory measurements, we assume that this heterogeneous OH oxidation causes fragmentation (carbon loss) of OA, followed by the evaporation of the fragmented molecules that results in the exponential decay of OA. We predict that the oxidation timescale of OA is ~1 month near the Earth’s surface in the pristine Amazonian background because of low OH concentrations. But OA is oxidized more rapidly within urban and wildfire plumes near the Earth’s surface with an order of magnitude higher OH concentrations compared to the pristine background, causing the simulated oxidation timescale of OA to be much shorter, ~3–4 days. At 3–5 km altitudes where biomass burning OA is predicted to be semisolid, the heterogeneous oxidation timescale is estimated as ~6 days to 3 weeks and decreases with increasing OH concentrations within plumes. We show that the simulated mass loss of OA is strongly size-dependent, where smaller particles oxidize more rapidly compared to larger particles due to their greater per-particle surface area-to-volume ratio. Increasing urbanization and deforestation in the Amazon in the future might increase OH concentrations in the background Amazon, causing faster oxidation of OA. At higher altitudes above liquid clouds, especially in the upper troposphere where temperatures approach ~250 K, future measurements are needed to reduce the uncertainties related to the mass loss of OA at colder temperatures and low relative humidity conditions due to its heterogeneous OH oxidation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Chemical Imaging of Atmospheric Biomass Burning Particles from North American Wildfires

The effects of biomass burning aerosols (BBA) on radiative forcing and cloud formation depend on chemical composition and the internal structures of individual particles within smoke plumes. To improve our understanding of the chemical and physical properties of BBA emitted at different times of the day and their evolution during atmospheric aging, we conducted a study as a part of the Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality field campaign. Particle samples were collected onboard a research aircraft from smoke plumes from a wildfire in eastern Oregon during late afternoon and nighttime flights on August 28, 2019. A time-resolved aerosol collector was used to collect samples on substrates for offline spectromicroscopic imaging to investigate the single-particle characteristics of BBA particles. Approximately 20,400 individual particles from 10 selected samples were analyzed using computer-controlled scanning electron microscopy coupled with energy-dispersive X-ray microanalysis, revealing their elemental composition, morphology, and viscosity. Elemental microanalysis indicated that aged potassium is likely found in the form of K 2 SO 4 , KNO 3 , and possible K-organic salts. Further chemical speciation and carbon bonding mapping within individual particles were conducted using synchrotron-based scanning transmission X-ray microscopy (STXM) coupled with near edge X-ray absorption fine structure (NEXAFS) spectroscopy. Real-time, water-soluble light absorption measurements were acquired using a particle-into-liquid sampler instrument coupled to a liquid waveguide capillary cell and total organic analyzer. In the late afternoon samples, 65% of the total particle number population consisted entirely of organic components, compared to 46% in the nighttime particles. These differences were attributed to discrepancies in composition at the time of emission and to the daytime condensation and accumulation of photochemically formed secondary organic material on existing BBA particles, a process that halts at night. Microscopy images indicated that particle viscosity was lower in the nighttime particles (<10 1 Pa·s), likely due to increased relative humidity and a higher contribution from hygroscopic inorganic components. The chemical heterogeneity of individual particles was quantified using STXM-derived mixing state parameters. The nature of carbon bonding within individual particles was inferred from the extent of carbon sp 2 hybridization derived from NEXAFS spectra. Average percentages of sp 2 hybridization range between 40% and 60%, with no noticeable differences between late afternoon and nighttime flights. These findings were compared with the online optical properties of both late afternoon and nighttime smoke plumes, providing valuable insights into the complex relationship between chemical composition and optical properties of BBA particles at different times of the day.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Doubling of U.S. Population Exposure to Climate Extremes by 2050

We quantify historical and projected trends in the population exposure to climate extremes as measured by the United States National Center for Environmental Information Climate Extremes Index (CEI). Based on the analyses of the historical observations, we find that the U.S. has already experienced a rise in the occurrence of aggregated extremes in recent decades, consistent with the climate response to historical increases in radiative forcing. Additionally, we find that exposure can be expected to intensify under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, with all counties permanently exceeding the baseline variability in the occurrence of extreme hot days, warm nights, and drought conditions by 2050. As a result, every county in the U.S. is projected to permanently exceed the historical CEI variability (as measured by one standard deviation during the 1981–2005 period). Based on the current population distribution, this unprecedented change implies a yearly exposure to extreme conditions for one in every three people. We find that the increasing trend in exposure to the aggregated extremes is already detectable over much of the U.S., and particularly in the central and eastern U.S. The high correspondence between the pattern of trends in our simulations and observations increases confidence in the projected amplification of population exposure to unprecedented combinations of extreme climate conditions, should greenhouse gas concentrations continue to escalate along their current trajectory.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling the Sources and Transport Processes During Extreme Ammonia Episodes in the U.S. Corn Belt

Abstract Atmospheric ammonia (NH 3 ) is the primary form of reactive nitrogen (N r ) and a precursor of ammonium (NH 4 + ) aerosols. Ammonia has been linked to adverse impacts on human health, the loss of ecosystem biodiversity, and plays a key role in aerosol radiative forcing. The midwestern United States is the major NH 3 source in North America because of dense livestock operations and the high use of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers. Here, we combine tall‐tower (100 m) observations in Minnesota and Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF‐Chem) modeling to investigate high and low NH 3 emission episodes within the U.S. Corn Belt to improve our understanding of the distribution of emission sources and transport processes. We examined observations and performed model simulations for cases in February through November of 2017 and 2018. The results showed the following: (1) Peak emissions in November 2017 were enhanced by above‐normal air temperatures, implying a Q 10 (i.e., the change in NH 3 emissions for a temperature increase of 10°C) of 2.5 for emissions. (2) The intensive livestock emissions rom northern Iowa, approximately 400 km away from the tall tower, accounted for 17.6% of the abundance in tall‐tower NH 3 mixing ratios. (3) Ammonia mixing ratios in the innermost domain 3 frequently (i.e., 336 hr, 48% of November 2017) exceeded 5.3 ppb, an important air quality health standard. (4) In November 2017, simulated NH 3 net ecosystem exchange (the difference between NH 3 emissions and dry deposition) accounted for 60–65% of gross NH 3 emissions for agricultural areas and was 2.8–3.1 times the emissions of forested areas. (5) We estimated a mean annual NH 3 net ecosystem exchange of 1.60 ± 0.06 nmol · m −2 · s −1 for agricultural lands and −0.07 ± 0.02 nmol · m −2 · s −1 for forested lands. These results imply that future warmer fall temperatures will enhance agricultural NH 3 emissions, increase the frequency of dangerous NH 3 episodes, and enhance dry NH 3 deposition in adjacent forested lands.

Hu, Cheng↗
DOE OSTI2020

Aquaplanets as a Framework for Examination of Aerosol Effects

Although fundamental to the planetary radiative balance, aerosol impacts are highly uncertain in climate simulations because of the uneven distribution of aerosol sources and the complex interactions with radiation and clouds that are difficult to represent in climate models. This study proposes that aquaplanet configurations represent an idealized framework to investigate aerosol effects. As a simple demonstration, a series of aquaplanet simulations with the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 shows that the spatial distribution of aerosol emissions changes the aerosol effective radiative forcing even with unchanged total emissions. Some statistical properties of the simulations are presented to show that relatively short model integrations yield robust results. Much of the aerosol effect is shown to arise from aerosol–cloud interactions, especially through rapid adjustments associated with the aerosol lifetime effect that alter the cloud optical thickness.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effects of Low-Carbon Energy Adoption on Airborne Particulate Matter Concentrations With Feedbacks to Future Climate Over California

California plans to reduce emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs) through adoption of new energy systems that will also lower concentrations of short-lived absorbing soot contained in airborne particulate matter (PM). Here we examine the direct and indirect effects of reduced PM concentrations under a low-carbon energy (GHG-Step) scenario on radiative forcing in California. Simulations were carried out using the source-oriented WRF/Chem (SOWC) model with 12 km spatial resolution for the year 2054. Furthermore, the avoided aerosol emissions due to technology advances in the GHG-Step scenario reduce ground level PM concentrations by ~8.85% over land compared to the Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario, but changes to meteorological parameters are more modest. Top-of-atmospheric forcing predicted by the SOWC model increased by 0.15 W m -2 , surface temperature warmed by 0.001 K, and planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) increased by 2.20 cm in the GHG-Step scenario compared to the BAU scenario. PM climate feedbacks are small because the significant changes in ground level PM concentrations associated with the GHG-Step scenario are limited to the first few hundred meters of the atmosphere, with little change for the majority of the vertical column above that level. As an order-of-magnitude comparison, the long-term effects of global reductions in GHG emissions (RCP8.5–RCP4.5) lowered average surface temperature over the California study domain by approximately 0.76 K. The effects of long-lived climate pollutants such as CO 2 are much stronger than the effects of short-lived climate pollutants such as PM soot over California in the year 2054.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Accelerating Radiation Computations for Dynamical Models With Targeted Machine Learning and Code Optimization

Abstract Atmospheric radiation is the main driver of weather and climate, yet due to a complicated absorption spectrum, the precise treatment of radiative transfer in numerical weather and climate models is computationally unfeasible. Radiation parameterizations need to maximize computational efficiency as well as accuracy, and for predicting the future climate many greenhouse gases need to be included. In this work, neural networks (NNs) were developed to replace the gas optics computations in a modern radiation scheme (RTE+RRTMGP) by using carefully constructed models and training data. The NNs, implemented in Fortran and utilizing BLAS for batched inference, are faster by a factor of 1–6, depending on the software and hardware platforms. We combined the accelerated gas optics with a refactored radiative transfer solver, resulting in clear‐sky longwave (shortwave) fluxes being 3.5 (1.8) faster to compute on an Intel platform. The accuracy, evaluated with benchmark line‐by‐line computations across a large range of atmospheric conditions, is very similar to the original scheme with errors in heating rates and top‐of‐atmosphere radiative forcings typically below 0.1 K day −1 and 0.5 W m −2 , respectively. These results show that targeted machine learning, code restructuring techniques, and the use of numerical libraries can yield material gains in efficiency while retaining accuracy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Carbon Accumulation, Flux, and Fate in Stordalen Mire, a Permafrost Peatland in Transition

Abstract Stordalen Mire is a peatland in the discontinuous permafrost zone in arctic Sweden that exhibits a habitat gradient from permafrost palsa, to Sphagnum bog underlain by permafrost, to Eriophorum ‐dominated fully thawed fen. We used three independent approaches to evaluate the annual, multi‐decadal, and millennial apparent carbon accumulation rates (aCAR) across this gradient: seven years of direct semi‐continuous measurement of CO 2 and CH 4 exchange, and 21 core profiles for 210 Pb and 14 C peat dating. Year‐round chamber measurements indicated net carbon balance of −13 ± 8, −49 ± 15, and −91 ± 43 g C m −2 y −1 for the years 2012–2018 in palsa, bog, and fen, respectively. Methane emission offset 2%, 7%, and 17% of the CO 2 uptake rate across this gradient. Recent aCAR indicates higher C accumulation rates in surface peats in the palsa and bog compared to current CO 2 fluxes, but these assessments are more similar in the fen. aCAR increased from low millennial‐scale levels (17–29 g C m −2 y −1 ) to moderate aCAR of the past century (72–81 g C m −2 y −1 ) to higher recent aCAR of 90–147 g C m −2 y −1 . Recent permafrost collapse, greater inundation and vegetation response has made the landscape a stronger CO 2 sink, but this CO 2 sink is increasingly offset by rising CH 4 emissions, dominated by modern carbon as determined by 14 C. The higher CH 4 emissions result in higher net CO 2‐equivalent emissions, indicating that radiative forcing of this mire and similar permafrost ecosystems will exert a warming influence on future climate.

Holmes, M. E.↗
DOE OSTI2021

High-Latitude Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Can Be More Effective if Injection Is Limited to Spring

Stratospheric aerosol geoengineering focused on the Arctic could substantially reduce local and worldwide impacts of anthropogenic global warming. Because the Arctic receives little sunlight during the winter, stratospheric aerosols present in the winter at high latitudes have little impact on the climate, whereas stratospheric aerosols present during the summer achieve larger changes in radiative forcing. Injecting SO 2 in the spring leads to peak aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the summer. We demonstrate that spring injection produces approximately twice as much summer AOD as year-round injection and restores approximately twice as much September sea ice, resulting in less increase in stratospheric sulfur burden, stratospheric heating, and stratospheric ozone depletion per unit of sea ice restored. Furthermore, we also find that differences in AOD between different seasonal injection strategies are small compared to the difference between annual and spring injection.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Vegetation Response to Rising CO 2 Amplifies Contrasts in Water Resources Between Global Wet and Dry Land Areas

Rising atmospheric CO 2 impacts on vegetation physiological processes can alter land feedbacks on precipitation and water resources, but understanding of regional differences in these changes is uncertain. We investigate the impact of rising CO 2 on land water resources for different wetness levels using four Earth system models. We find an overall tendency of runoff to increase across all wetness levels. However, runoff increases in wet regions are much larger than those in dry regions, especially in wet seasons. This substantial amplification of contrasts between wet and dry regions increases at 3% per 100 ppm increase in CO 2 relative to the historical period, reaching 18% for a quadrupling of CO 2 , quantified by a new wetting contrast index (WCI). Physiological effects suppress evapotranspiration more in wet than dry regions, which has a larger contribution than radiative forcing to the amplification of runoff contrast, reshaping the spatial distribution of future land water resources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Influence of Dust-Smoke Mixtures on Boundary Layer Processes and Nocturnal Warming in the Sahel

Using a single column model with ground-based, aircraft, and satellite data sets we assess the combined role of smoke and dust aerosols, land degradation/aridization (LDA), and their impact on the planetary boundary layer (PBL) in influencing near-surface air temperature over the Sahel. Our study is unique because it assesses the combined role of smoke and dust aerosols on PBL evolution and near-surface air temperatures during both day and nighttime. More importantly, using a theoretical framework, we provide a careful explanation of the geophysical processes responsible for the changes in PBL and near-surface air temperature. Our results indicate that during northern hemisphere winter months, dust, and smoke over Sahel radiatively combine to impact the PBL. We show that aerosol mixtures dominated by dust modify PBL height in a manner that minimizes/maximizes surface layer cooling/warming at times when daytime maximum/nocturnal minimum temperatures occur. Furthermore, we find that increasing smoke contribution to total column aerosol optical extinction counteracts nighttime warming through daytime cooling. When smoke constitutes half or more of to the total column aerosol optical extinction, the ratio of longwave to shortwave radiative forcing is less than 10%, and nighttime cooling ensues. Minimum temperature is most sensitive to changes in mid-visible aerosol optical depth (AOD) values <1 and doubling of dust AOD within this range during the 1950–1980 Sahelian LDA event is estimated to have a nocturnal warming potential of 0.6°C.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Strong Local Evaporative Cooling Over Land Due to Atmospheric Aerosols

Abstract Aerosols can enhance terrestrial productivity through increased absorption of solar radiation by the shaded portion of the plant canopy—the diffuse radiation fertilization effect. Although this process can, in principle, alter surface evaporation due to the coupling between plant water loss and carbon uptake, with the potential to change the surface temperature, aerosol‐climate interactions have been traditionally viewed in light of the radiative effects within the atmosphere. Here, we develop a modeling framework that combines global atmosphere and land model simulations with a conceptual diagnostic tool to investigate these interactions from a surface energy budget perspective. Aerosols increase the terrestrial evaporative fraction, or the portion of net incoming energy consumed by evaporation, by over 4% globally and as much as ∼40% regionally. The main mechanism for this is the increase in energy allocation from sensible to latent heat due to global dimming (reduction in global shortwave radiation) and slightly augmented by diffuse radiation fertilization. In regions with moderately dense vegetation (leaf area index >2), the local surface cooling response to aerosols is dominated by this evaporative pathway, not the reduction in incident radiation. Diffuse radiation fertilization alone has a stronger impact on gross primary productivity (+2.18 Pg C y −1 or +1.8%) than on land evaporation (+0.18 W m −2 or +0.48%) and surface temperature (−0.01 K). Our results suggest that it is important for land surface models to distinguish between quantity (change in total magnitude) and quality (change in diffuse fraction) of radiative forcing for properly simulating surface climate.

Chakraborty, TC↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Fall and Rise of the Global Climate Model

Abstract Global models are an essential tool for climate projections, but conventional coarse‐resolution atmospheric general circulation models suffer from errors both in their parameterized cloud physics and in their representation of climatically important circulation features. A notable recent study by Terai et al. (2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ms002274) documents a global model capable of reproducing the regime‐based effect of aerosols on cloud liquid water path expected from observational evidence. This may represent a significant advance in cloud process fidelity in global models. Such models can be expected to give a better estimate of the effective radiative forcing of the climate. If this advance in cloud process representation can be matched by advances in the representation of circulation features such as monsoons, then such models may also be able to navigate the complex tangle between spatially heterogeneous aerosol–cloud interactions and regional circulation patterns. This tight link between aerosol and circulation results in anthropogenic perturbations of climate variables of societal importance, such as regional rainfall distributions. Upcoming global models with km‐scale resolution may improve the regional circulation and be able to take advantage of the Terai et al. (2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ms002274) improvement in cloud physics. If so, an era of significantly improved regional climate projection capabilities may soon dawn. If not, then the improvement in cloud physics might spur intensified efforts on problems in model dynamics. Either way, based on the rapid changes in aerosol emissions in the near future, learning to make reliable projections based on biased models is a skill that will not go out of style.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mechanisms and Impacts of Earth System Tipping Elements

Tipping elements are components of the Earth system which may respond nonlinearly to anthropogenic climate change by transitioning toward substantially different long-term states upon passing key thresholds or “tipping points.” In some cases, such changes could produce additional greenhouse gas emissions or radiative forcing that could compound global warming. Improved understanding of tipping elements is important for predicting future climate risks and their impacts. Here we review mechanisms, predictions, impacts, and knowledge gaps associated with 10 notable Earth system components proposed to be tipping elements. We evaluate which tipping elements are approaching critical thresholds and whether shifts may manifest rapidly or over longer timescales. Some tipping elements have a higher risk of crossing tipping points under middle-of-the-road emissions pathways and will possibly affect major ecosystems, climate patterns, and/or carbon cycling within the 21st century. However, literature assessing different emissions scenarios indicates a strong potential to reduce impacts associated with many tipping elements through climate change mitigation. The studies synthesized in our review suggest most tipping elements do not possess the potential for abrupt future change within years, and some proposed tipping elements may not exhibit tipping behavior, rather responding more predictably and directly to the magnitude of forcing. Nevertheless, uncertainties remain associated with many tipping elements, highlighting an acute need for further research and modeling to better constrain risks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Formation Process of Particles and Cloud Condensation Nuclei Over the Amazon Rainforest: The Role of Local and Remote New-Particle Formation

Understanding the formation processes of particles and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) in pristine environments is a major challenge in accurately assessing anthropogenic radiative forcing. Here, using a state-of-the-art model that systematically simulates the chemical processes controlling new-particle formation (NPF) and multi-scale chemical transport, we find that NPF contributes ~90% of the particle number and ~80% of the CCN at 0.5% supersaturation (CCN0.5%) in the pristine Amazon boundary layer during the wet season. The corresponding contributions are only ~30% and ~20% during the dry season because of prevalent biomass burning. In both seasons, about half of the NPF-induced particles and ~85% of the NPF-induced CCN0.5% in the boundary layer originate from the long-range transport of new particles formed hundreds to thousands of kilometers away. Moreover, about 50–65% of the NPF-induced particles and 35–50% of the NPF induced CCN0.5% originate from the downward transport of new particles formed in the free troposphere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗