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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

SysCaps (Language Interfaces for Simulation Surrogates of Complex Systems) [SWR-24-97]

You've found the official code repository for the paper "SysCaps: Language Interfaces for Simulation Surrogates of Complex Systems," presented at the Foundation Models for Science: Progress, Opportunities, and Challenges workshop at NeurIPS 2024. Our paper conjectures that interfaces (both text templates as well as conversational) makes interacting with simulation surrogate models for complex systems more intuitive and accessible for both non-experts and experts. "System captions", or SysCaps, are text-based descriptions of systems based on information contained in simulation metadata. Our paper's goal is to train multimodal regression models that take text inputs (SysCaps) and timeseries inputs (exogenous system conditions such as hourly weather) and regress timeseries simulation outputs (e.g. hourly building energy consumption). The experiments in our paper with building and wind farm simulators, which can be reproduced using this codebase, aim to help us understand whether a) accurate regression in this setting is possible and b) if so, how well can we do it. Paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.19653

Emami, Patrick↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning models for volumetric swelling in uranium nitride

Machine learning methods are applied to predict the volumetric swelling rate of the nuclear fuel uranium nitride (UN) over various temperatures, irradiation conditions, and power densities. Both kernel-based methods and symbolic regression models for UN swelling are developed and compared with multiple experimental datasets. We find that the UN pellet geometry and dimensions must be taken into account to accurately model swelling behavior. Strong agreement is observed between the developed machine learning models and the data. The predictive error generated by the machine learning models improves on empirical models taken from the literature. Sensitivity analysis is performed to determine which properties such as temperature, burnup, and power density, are most important in the swelling process. We find that machine learning can be used to quickly develop accurate swelling models for nuclear materials. In conclusion, the presented results illustrate the potential of machine learning to determine volumetric swelling in UN.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS2024

Evaluation, Analysis, and Application of Internal Strain-Gage Balance Data

Experimental processes, analytical methods, and numerical algorithms are described that may be used to predict the forces and moments of an internal strain–gage balance during a wind tunnel test. First, the control volume model of a strain–gage balance and the concepts of load state, load space, and output space are introduced. These important abstractions provide a better understanding of fundamental characteristics of different balance load prediction approaches. Then, the description of strain–gage balance data and the definition of the primary bridge sensitivity are discussed. Afterwards, basic elements of the calibration of a typical six–component balance are reviewed. Two fundamentally different balance load prediction methods, the processing of check loads, and related topics are also discussed. Three real–world balance data examples are reviewed in great detail to illustrate typical analysis results for a variety of strain–gage balance designs. Finally, important observations are summarized and recommendations are provided. – Additional information and detailed mathematical derivations can be found in the appendices of the document. They include the following topics: balance terminology, definitions of important statistical metrics, balance axis system conventions, balance load transformations, the combined load diagram, electrical output format options, bi–directional output characteristics, determination of the natural zeros, derivation of two balance load prediction methods, description of two tare load iteration algorithms, modeling of balance temperature effects, basics of three–component moment balances, definition of the percent contribution, detection of linear and near–linear dependencies in balance calibration data, a regression model search algorithm, balance interactions, and other related information.

strain-gage balance↗
DOE OSTI2025

PAVC Gridded 20m Alaska NGEE Tier3 PFTs v1.0

These 20-meter spatial resolution gridded products provide per-pixel fractional cover (%) of Next Generation Ecosystem Experiments (NGEE) Arctic Plant Functional Types (PFTs) Tier 3 across Alaska, north of the boreal treeline. The products were developed for the NGEE Arctic project, which is improving Arctic vegetation representation and parameterization of the E3SM Land Model. This dataset includes 8 files containing fractional cover for NGEE Tier 3 PFTs (https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/view/doi:10.15485/2529470): (1) bryophytes; (2) lichens; (3) non-vascular plants, i.e., the sum of lichens and bryophytes; (4) deciduous shrubs, (5) evergreen shrubs, (6) forbs, (7) graminoids, and a non-PFT class, (8) litter. Each pixel contains the percent cover (expressed as a fraction of total ground cover) that was predicted by random-forest regression models. The random-forest models were trained on cover data collected at 978 plots from 2010 to 2021, of which are archived in the Pan-Arctic Vegetation Cover (PAVC) database (https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/2483557). The plot cover was linked to 20-meter spatial resolution, satellite-derived predictor variables: Sentinel-2 spectra and Sentinel-1 polarizations averaged over the 2019 growing season, as well as topographical features derived from ArcticDEM. Then, spatio-temporally anomalous plot data that introduced large variability to the regression outcomes were dropped using the Cook’s distance outlier detection method, and the models were re-created using high-quality plots and their associated satellite derived explanatory variables per each PFT. The correlations between plot-observed and satellite-derived fractional cover for all PFTs were well correlated (R2 = 0.69–0.95 and 0.5 for litter) and had low RMSE bias (0.02–0.11). This research was performed as a part of the NGEE Arctic project. The NGEE Arctic project was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2007

Productivity Analysis of Public and Private Airports: A Causal Investigation

Around the world, airports are being viewed as enterprises, rather than public services, which are expected to be managed efficiently and provide passengers with courteous customer services. Governments are, increasingly, turning to the private sectors for their efficiency in managing the operation, financing, and development, as well as providing security for airports. Operational and financial performance evaluation has become increasingly important to airport operators due to recent trends in airport privatization. Assessing performance allows the airport operators to plan for human resources and capital investment as efficiently as possible. Productivity measurements may be used as comparisons and guidelines in strategic planning, in the internal analysis of operational efficiency and effectiveness, and in assessing the competitive position of an airport in transportation industry. The primary purpose of this paper is to investigate the operational and financial efficiencies of 22 major airports in the United States and Europe. These airports are divided into three groups based on private ownership (7 British Airport Authority airports), public ownership (8 major United States airports), and a mix of private and public ownership (7 major European Union airports. The detail ownership structures of these airports are presented in Appendix A. Total factor productivity (TFP) model was utilized to measure airport performance in terms of financial and operational efficiencies and to develop a benchmarking tool to identify the areas of strength and weakness. A regression model was then employed to measure the relationship between TFP and ownership structure. Finally a Granger causality test was performed to determine whether ownership structure is a Granger cause of TFP. The results of the analysis presented in this paper demonstrate that there is not a significant relationship between airport TFP and ownership structure. Airport productivity and efficiency is, however dependent upon the level of competition, choice of the market, and regulatory control.

Vasigh, Bijan↗
NASA NTRS2023

Accounting for Dose Uncertainty in Dose-Response Curve Estimation Using Hierarchical Bayes Models

As part of their development of the technology for low-boom supersonic flight, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is planning to conduct a set of supersonic aircraft annoyance surveys in select communities in the United States, to measure public perception of the reduced sonic boom. The relationship between a noise exposure level of a supersonic flight event and the probability of an individual being highly annoyed by the event is quantified by a dose-response curve, which is usually based on logistic regression modeling. Unavoidable amounts of estimation error are expected in the upcoming noise measurements, which can bias the results of the logistic regression if ignored. Hence, the development of an estimation approach that accounts for such error when estimating the dose-response curve is imperative. In this paper, an evaluation study is conducted to assess the impact of measurement error on dose-response curve estimation. For this, hierarchical Bayes models using different specifications are fit to data collected by NASA in 2018, as part of a risk-reduction study of supersonic flights affecting Galveston, Texas. It is observed that the estimated dose-response curve appears sensitive to uncertainty in dose measurements, being subject to attenuation bias.

community response↗
NASA NTRS2021

Evaluation, Analysis, and Application of Internal Strain-Gage Balance Data

Experimental processes, analytical methods, and numerical algorithms are described that may be used to predict the forces and moments of an internal strain-gage balance during a wind tunnel test. First, the control volume model of a strain-gage balance and the concepts of load state, load space, and output space are introduced. These important abstractions provide a better understanding of fundamental characteristics of different balance load prediction approaches. Then, the description of strain-gage balance data and the definition of the primary gage sensitivity is discussed. Afterwards, basic elements of the calibration of a typical six-component balance are reviewed. Two fundamentally different balance load prediction methods, the processing of check loads, and related topics are also discussed. Three real-world balance data examples are reviewed in great detail to illustrate typical analysis results for a variety of strain-gage balance designs. Finally, important observations are summarized and recommendations are provided. Additional information and detailed mathematical derivations can be found in the appendices of the document. They include the following topics: balance terminology, definitions of important statistical metrics, balance axis system conventions, balance load transformations, the combined load diagram, electrical output format options, bi-directional gage output characteristics, determination of the natural zeros, derivation of two balance load prediction methods, description of two tare load iteration algorithms, modeling of balance temperature effects, basics of three-component moment balances, definition of the percent contribution, detection of linear and near-linear dependencies in balance calibration data, a regression model term selection algorithm, and other related topics.

wind tunnel test↗
DOE OSTI2026

Frequency-Nadir-Constrained Unit Commitment for Low-Inertia, High-IBR Island Power Systems [Slides]

The process of energy decarbonization in island power systems is accelerated due to the swift integration of inverter-based renewable energy resources (IBRs). The unique features of such systems, including rapid frequency changes resulting from potential generation outages or imbalances due to the unpredictability of renewable power, pose a significant challenge in maintaining the frequency nadir without external support. This paper presents a unit commitment (UC) model with data-driven frequency nadir constraints, including either frequency nadir or minimum inertia requirements, helping to limit frequency deviations after significant generator outages. The constraints are formulated using a linear regression model that takes advantage of real-world, year-long generation scheduling and dynamic simulation data. The efficacy of the proposed UC model is verified through a year-long simulation in an actual island power system using historical weather data. The alternative minimum inertia constraint, derived from actual system operation assumptions, is also evaluated. Findings demonstrate that the proposed frequency nadir constraint notably improves the system's frequency nadir under high photovoltaic (PV) penetration levels, albeit with a slight increase in generation costs, when compared to the alternative minimum inertia constraint.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1990

Early experiences building a software quality prediction model

Early experiences building a software quality prediction model are discussed. The overall research objective is to establish a capability to project a software system's quality from an analysis of its design. The technical approach is to build multivariate models for estimating reliability and maintainability. Data from 21 Ada subsystems were analyzed to test hypotheses about various design structures leading to failure-prone or unmaintainable systems. Current design variables highlight the interconnectivity and visibility of compilation units. Other model variables provide for the effects of reusability and software changes. Reported results are preliminary because additional project data is being obtained and new hypotheses are being developed and tested. Current multivariate regression models are encouraging, explaining 60 to 80 percent of the variation in error density of the subsystems.

Agresti, W. W.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mitigating the Impacts of Measurement Error in the Quesst Mission Community Noise Study

Beginning in 2025, the NASA Quesst mission will conduct a series of community response tests involving flyovers of the X-59 aircraft at select localities across the United States. Several waves of a longitudinal survey will be administered over approximately one month of testing in order to capture perceptual responses to low-amplitude sonic booms, or “sonic thumps”. Simultaneously, noise exposure levels will be estimated by fusing model-based predictions with measurements taken from a sparse network of monitors in the region. As one of the aims of the study is to produce a dose-response curve, a regression model relating perceptual response to noise exposure levels, it is important to acknowledge the potential attenuation bias that results from measurement error in the estimated noise exposure levels. In this presentation we review and compare several methods for dealing with measurement error in generalized linear mixed models. The methods are demonstrated on simulated data and real data collected during past NASA risk reduction studies.

measurement error↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Prediction of Aircraft Estimated Time of Arrival Using A Supervised Learning Approach

We present a novel data-driven approach for prediction of the estimated time of arrival (ETA) of aircraft in the terminal area via the implementation of a Random Forest regression model. The model uses data fused from a number of sources (flight track, weather, flight plan information, etc.) and provides predictions for the remaining flight time for aircraft landing at Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) International Airport. The predictions are made when the aircraft is at a distance of 200-miles from the airport. The results show that the model is able to predict estimated time of arrival to within ± 5 min for 90% of the flights in the test data with the mean absolute error being lower at 145 seconds. This paper covers the entire pipeline of data collection, preprocessing, setup and training of the ML model, and the results obtained for DFW.

Machine learning↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using Data Science Tools to Reveal and Understand Subtle Relationships of Inhibitor Structure in Frontal Ring-Opening Metathesis Polymerization

The rate of frontal ring-opening metathesis polymerization (FROMP) using the Grubbs generation II catalyst is impacted by both the concentration and choice of monomers and inhibitors, usually organophosphorus derivatives. Herein we report a data-science-driven workflow to evaluate how these factors impact both the rate of FROMP and how long the formulation of the mixture is stable (pot life). Using this workflow, we built a classification model using a single-node decision tree to determine how a simple phosphine structural descriptor (V bur-near ) can bin long versus short pot life. Additionally, we applied a nonlinear kernel ridge regression model to predict how the inhibitor and selection/concentration of comonomers impact the FROMP rate. Furthermore, the analysis provides selection criteria for material network structures that span from highly cross-linked thermosets to non-cross-linked thermoplastics as well as degradable and nondegradable materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1992

Analysis of the lettuce data from the variable pressure growth chamber at NASA Johnson Space Center: A three-stage nested design model

A model of three-stage nested experimental design was applied to analyze the lettuce data obtained from the variable pressure growth chamber test bed at NASA-Johnson Space Center. From the results of an application of the analysis of variance and covariance on the data set, it was noted that all of the (uncontrollable) factors, Side, Zone, Height and (controllable) PAR (photosynthetically active radiation), had nonhomogeneous effects on the dry weight of the edible biomass of lettuce per pot. Incidentally, the variations accountable to the (uncontrollable) factorial heterogeneities are merely 9 percent and 17 percent of the total variation for both the first and second crop test, respectively. After adjusting for the PAR as a covariate in the no-intercept model, the accountable variations to all the four factors are 94 percent and 92 percent for the first and the second crop test, respectively. With the use of a no-intercept simple linear regression model, the accountable variations to the factor PAR are 92 percent and 90 percent for the first and the second crop test, respectively. Evidently, the (controllable) factor PAR is the dominating one.

Lee, Tze-San↗
NASA NTRS2020

Data Science for Weather Impacts on Crop Yield

Private businesses in sectors, such as food, energy, and retail, as well as public sector and federal agencies are interested in the predictive understanding of weather impacts on crop yield, which is an important aspect of food security. Scientific literature has mainly examined how crop yield is impacted by growing season-averaged weather indices. Although a few studies did consider weather extremes in their analysis, their scope was either restricted to measuring their conditional relationship with yield or the extreme event types considered were limited. Selection of regression models, whether the more commonly used linear approaches or nonlinear methods, have not been appropriately justified in this context. Here, we develop data-driven methods to examine two inter-related hypotheses for improved scientific understanding and enhanced predictive modeling. The first hypothesis, that extreme weather indices have a statistically significant information content in them is found to be valid based on linear and nonlinear methods for pairwise dependence. The second hypothesis, examines the value addition of nonlinear regression methods, and suggests that linear approaches may not alone be adequate. The results of this study can inform scientific understanding, generation and relevance of indices and end-to-end risk assessment systems in the context of climate impacts on crop yield. An immediate application may be in the context of NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) which facilitates the generation and dissemination of impacts relevant weather data and indices using a multitude of satellite-derived data sets and model outputs.

Data mining, food security, weather impacts↗
NASA NTRS1981

Application of thermal model for pan evaporation to the hydrology of a defined medium, the sponge

A technique is presented which estimates pan evaporation from the commonly observed values of daily maximum and minimum air temperatures. These two variables are transformed to saturation vapor pressure equivalents which are used in a simple linear regression model. The model provides reasonably accurate estimates of pan evaporation rates over a large geographic area. The derived evaporation algorithm is combined with precipitation to obtain a simple moisture variable. A hypothetical medium with a capacity of 8 inches of water is initialized at 4 inches. The medium behaves like a sponge: it absorbs all incident precipitation, with runoff or drainage occurring only after it is saturated. Water is lost from this simple system through evaporation just as from a Class A pan, but at a rate proportional to its degree of saturation. The contents of the sponge is a moisture index calculated from only the maximum and minium temperatures and precipitation.

Trenchard, M. H.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Simulation and Application of Bayesian Dose Uncertainty Modeling for Low-Boom Community Noise Surveys

In dose-response modeling, failing to account for dose uncertainty can cause artificial flattening of the estimated slope of the dose-response curve. Previous analyses of NASA sonic boom community noise survey data utilized a Bayesian multilevel logistic regression model, which did not account for dose uncertainty. The current work extends the model to account for either classical or Berkson dose uncertainty. The extended model is applied to two simulated dose-response datasets to illustrate conditions under which the dose uncertainty term does and does not correct for the artificial flattening introduced by dose uncertainty. Finally, the extended model is applied to two previous NASA sonic boom community noise surveys. The resulting dose-response curve slope for the average participant is 5 to 10% steeper, but the difference in the noise dose that elicits a 5% highly annoyed response is small (less than 1 dB). The difference remains insignificant when producing population summary dose-response curves. Commentary is included on applicability to future X-59 low-boom community noise survey data modeling and analysis.

X-59↗
NASA NTRS2015

Solid Rocket Motor Combustion Instability Modeling in COMSOL Multiphysics

Combustion instability modeling of Solid Rocket Motors (SRM) remains a topic of active research. Many rockets display violent fluctuations in pressure, velocity, and temperature originating from the complex interactions between the combustion process, acoustics, and steady-state gas dynamics. Recent advances in defining the energy transport of disturbances within steady flow-fields have been applied by combustion stability modelers to improve the analysis framework. Employing this more accurate global energy balance requires a higher fidelity model of the SRM flow-field and acoustic mode shapes. The current industry standard analysis tool utilizes a one dimensional analysis of the time dependent fluid dynamics along with a quasi-three dimensional propellant grain regression model to determine the SRM ballistics. The code then couples with another application that calculates the eigenvalues of the one dimensional homogenous wave equation. The mean flow parameters and acoustic normal modes are coupled to evaluate the stability theory developed and popularized by Culick. The assumption of a linear, non-dissipative wave in a quiescent fluid remains valid while acoustic amplitudes are small and local gas velocities stay below Mach 0.2. The current study employs the COMSOL Multiphysics finite element framework to model the steady flow-field parameters and acoustic normal modes of a generic SRM. This work builds upon previous efforts to verify the use of the acoustic velocity potential equation (AVPE) laid out by Campos. The acoustic velocity potential (psi) describing the acoustic wave motion in the presence of an inhomogeneous steady high-speed flow is defined by, del squared psi - (lambda/c) squared psi - M x [M x del((del)(psi))] - 2((lambda)(M)/c + M x del(M) x (del)(psi) - 2(lambda)(psi)[M x del(1/c)] = 0. with M as the Mach vector, c as the speed of sound, and λ as the complex eigenvalue. The study requires one way coupling of the CFD High Mach Number Flow (HMNF) and mathematics module. The HMNF module evaluates the gas flow inside of a SRM using St. Robert's law to model the solid propellant burn rate, slip boundary conditions, and the supersonic outflow condition. Results from the HMNF model are verified by comparing the pertinent ballistics parameters with the industry standard code outputs (i.e. pressure drop, axial velocity, exit velocity). These results are then used by the coefficient form of the mathematics module to determine the complex eigenvalues of the AVPE. The mathematics model is truncated at the nozzle sonic line, where a zero flux boundary condition is self-satisfying. The remaining boundaries are modeled with a zero flux boundary condition, assuming zero acoustic absorption on all surfaces. The one way coupled analysis is perform four times utilizing geometries determined through traditional SRM modeling procedures. The results of the steady-state CFD and AVPE analyses are used to calculate the linear acoustic growth rate as is defined by Flandro and Jacob. In order to verify the process implemented within COMSOL we first employ the Culick theory and compare the results with the industry standard. After the process is verified, the Flandro/Jacob energy balance theory is employed and results displayed.

Fischbach, S. R.↗