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At least 217 records · Page 12

CARES/LIFE Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life Prediction Program

This manual describes the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life Prediction (CARES/LIFE) computer program. The program calculates the time-dependent reliability of monolithic ceramic components subjected to thermomechanical and/or proof test loading. CARES/LIFE is an extension of the CARES (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program. The program uses results from MSC/NASTRAN, ABAQUS, and ANSYS finite element analysis programs to evaluate component reliability due to inherent surface and/or volume type flaws. CARES/LIFE accounts for the phenomenon of subcritical crack growth (SCG) by utilizing the power law, Paris law, or Walker law. The two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function is used to characterize the variation in component strength. The effects of multiaxial stresses are modeled by using either the principle of independent action (PIA), the Weibull normal stress averaging method (NSA), or the Batdorf theory. Inert strength and fatigue parameters are estimated from rupture strength data of naturally flawed specimens loaded in static, dynamic, or cyclic fatigue. The probabilistic time-dependent theories used in CARES/LIFE, along with the input and output for CARES/LIFE, are described. Example problems to demonstrate various features of the program are also included.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗

SCREAM: Space-based Cognitive Reliability Error Analysis Method

Given both ground-based performance shaping factors (PSFs) collected by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) and potential space-based PSFs collected by JSC's HH&P, this year's task is to determine how to combine them for future human reliability analysis (HRA) of space missions. All HRA to date for space missions have been based on ground data (i.e. 1-G environment). There is no space-based HRA approach. The target of this project to produce a "first of its kind" HRA approach for space missions. As humans go beyond Earth orbit and missions become longer, human performance and reliability is expected to degrade. The questions become by how much, when, and what, leading to defining the overall effect on crew risk. Knowing this information earlier rather than later will help us mitigate this risk by vehicle design, crew training, and operational workarounds.

Boyer, Roger L.↗

Software For Analysis Of Reliability, Redundancy, And Cost

CARRAC is software tool for combined analysis of reliability, redundancy, and cost of alternative choices of subsystem that is part of larger system. Uses various parameters entered from computer keyboard to determine subsystem and redundancy method (if any) that minimizes cost. Also, calculation selected from five different mathematical models that enable application of CARRAC to wide variety of cases. Uses parameters to calculate and compare total expected cost for alternatives of a chosen subsystem. Written in Microsoft Quick-Basic v4.5.

Patterson, R. L.↗

Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (CARES). Users and programmers manual

This manual describes how to use the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (CARES) computer program. The primary function of the code is to calculate the fast fracture reliability or failure probability of macroscopically isotropic ceramic components. These components may be subjected to complex thermomechanical loadings, such as those found in heat engine applications. The program uses results from MSC/NASTRAN or ANSYS finite element analysis programs to evaluate component reliability due to inherent surface and/or volume type flaws. CARES utilizes the Batdorf model and the two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function to describe the effect of multiaxial stress states on material strength. The principle of independent action (PIA) and the Weibull normal stress averaging models are also included. Weibull material strength parameters, the Batdorf crack density coefficient, and other related statistical quantities are estimated from four-point bend bar or unifrom uniaxial tensile specimen fracture strength data. Parameter estimation can be performed for single or multiple failure modes by using the least-square analysis or the maximum likelihood method. Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit tests, ninety percent confidence intervals on the Weibull parameters, and Kanofsky-Srinivasan ninety percent confidence band values are also provided. The probabilistic fast-fracture theories used in CARES, along with the input and output for CARES, are described. Example problems to demonstrate various feature of the program are also included. This manual describes the MSC/NASTRAN version of the CARES program.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗

Robustness Analysis and Reliable Flight Regime Estimation of an Integrated Resilent Control System for a Transport Aircraft

Formal robustness analysis of aircraft control upset prevention and recovery systems could play an important role in their validation and ultimate certification. As a part of the validation process, this paper describes an analysis method for determining a reliable flight regime in the flight envelope within which an integrated resilent control system can achieve the desired performance of tracking command signals and detecting additive faults in the presence of parameter uncertainty and unmodeled dynamics. To calculate a reliable flight regime, a structured singular value analysis method is applied to analyze the closed-loop system over the entire flight envelope. To use the structured singular value analysis method, a linear fractional transform (LFT) model of a transport aircraft longitudinal dynamics is developed over the flight envelope by using a preliminary LFT modeling software tool developed at the NASA Langley Research Center, which utilizes a matrix-based computational approach. The developed LFT model can capture original nonlinear dynamics over the flight envelope with the ! block which contains key varying parameters: angle of attack and velocity, and real parameter uncertainty: aerodynamic coefficient uncertainty and moment of inertia uncertainty. Using the developed LFT model and a formal robustness analysis method, a reliable flight regime is calculated for a transport aircraft closed-loop system.

Shin, Jong-Yeob↗

Advanced Power Electronics and Electric Machines

The advanced power electronics and electric machines (APEEM) research group at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has developed world-class experimental and modeling capabilities for designing and evaluating efficient and reliable power electronics and electric machines thermal management systems. They also design, fabricate and characterize advanced power electronics packaging, and are developing state-of-health monitoring techniques. These researchers deliver safe, reliable, high performing, power-dense components that allow seamless integration between renewable energy sources, electric transportation, and the grid, helping to make widespread electric vehicle (EV) adoption and greenhouse gas emissions reduction more feasible. This document outlines the group's major capabilities in the areas of power electronics; module development and characterization; thermal modeling and management; thermomechanical reliability analysis of devices, modules, inverters/converters, and electric machines; physics-of-failure-based reliability analysis; and microelectronics. It also overviews the group's state-of-the-art equipment for fluid-based thermal management; thermal measurement & characterization; thermomechanical reliability analysis; micro- and power electronics measurement & characterization; and prototype fabrication, as well as the group's world-class modeling and simulation capabilities.

advanced gate drivers↗

System design of the Pioneer Venus spacecraft. Volume 3: Systems analysis

The mission, systems, operations, ground systems, and reliability analysis of the Thor/Delta baseline design used for the Pioneer Space Probe are discussed. Tradeoff decisions concerning spin axis orientation, bus antenna design, communication system design, probe descent, and reduced science payload are analyzed. The reliability analysis is made for the probe bus mission, large probe mission, and small probe mission. Detailed mission sequences were established to identify critical areas and provide phasing of critical operation.

Fisher, J. N.↗

Characterization of a mock up nuclear waste package using energy resolved MeV neutron analysis

Reliable radiographic methods for characterizing nuclear waste packages non-destructively (without the need to open containers) have the potential to significantly contribute to safe handling and future disposal options, particularly for legacy waste of unknown content. Due to required shielding of waste containers and the need to characterize materials consisting of light elements, X-ray methods are not suitable. Here, energy-resolved MeV neutron radiography is demonstrated as a first-of-its-kind application for non-destructive and remote examination of mock up nuclear waste packages from a safe position using time-of-flight techniques enabled by a novel event-mode imaging detector system. Energy-resolved neutron transmission spectra were measured spatially, permitting the detection of analogue materials to actual nuclear waste such as water, melamine, and ion exchange resin within a 2.54 cm wall thickness steel pipe. The results demonstrate the capability to locate the materials through this wall thickness by radiography and tomographic reconstruction, revealing detailed 3D distributions and structural anomalies. The method effectively detects residual water in ion exchange resin, highlighting its sensitivity to moisture content, a crucial parameter for nuclear waste characterization. Monte Carlo simulations are in agreement with the experimental findings, providing a pathway to simulate waste forms more difficult to tackle experimentally. This work paves the way to apply sub-nanosecond intense MeV neutron sources, such as laser-driven neutron sources under development, to nuclear waste characterization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Transor analysis

Reliability and failure modes of adaptive restoring circuit module Transor

LOGIC CIRCUIT↗

Novel composites for wing and fuselage applications

Probabilistic predictions based on the IPACS code are presented for the material and structural response of unnotched and notched, IM6/3501-6 Gr/Ep laminates. Comparisons of predicted and measured modulus and strength distributions are given for unnotched unidirectional, cross-ply and quasi-isotropic laminates. The predicted modulus distributions were found to correlate well with the test results for all three unnotched laminates. Correlations of strength distributions for the unnotched laminates are judged good for the unidirectional laminate and fair for the cross-ply laminate, whereas the strength correlation for the quasi-isotropic laminate is judged poor because IPACS did not have a progressive failure capability at the time this work was performed. The report also presents probabilistic and structural reliability analysis predictions for the strain concentration factor (SCF) for an open-hole, quasi-isotropic laminate subjected to longitudinal tension. A special procedure was developed to adapt IPACS for the structural reliability analysis. The reliability results show the importance of identifying the most significant random variables upon which the SCF depends, and of having accurate scatter values for these variables.

Sobel, L. H.↗

EVALUATION OF HRA METHODOLOGIES FOR APPLICATION IN SDP WORK

This study critically evaluates human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies applicable to regulatory probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) model, with a particular focus on their role in supporting the significance determination process (SDP) in nuclear safety assessment. Firstly, three widely utilized HRA methods – IDHEAS-ECA, SPAR-H, and ASEP/THERP – were qualitatively and quantitatively assessed. Qualitative assessments were conducted using attributes from the NEA/CSNI/R(2015)1 report, while quantitative evaluations employed regression and correlation analyses to compare predicted human error probabilities (HEPs) against empirical data. Results reveal distinct strengths, for example, IDHEAS-ECA’s robust predictive accuracy and K-HRA’s alignment with operational practices. In addition, dependency analysis and recovery analysis were critically evaluated. For dependency analysis, the methods’ handling of inter-task dependencies and their impact on HEPs were examined, while recovery analysis highlighted strategies for mitigating failure events. Furthermore, strategies were proposed to evaluate performance-shaping factors under conditions of reduced human performance, such as stress, fatigue, or cognitive overload, addressing specific challenges faced in SDP evaluations. Human errors from KINS’s operational performance information system event reports were evaluated as a case study. This study identifies gaps and provides actionable insights to ensure their validity and applicability in SDP HRA applications. This paper is a part of research conducted by KINS, and it should be noted that this result does not represent the regulatory position of KINS.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Loss Landscape Analysis for Reliable Quantized ML Models for Scientific Sensing

In this paper, we propose a method to perform empirical analysis of the loss landscape of machine learning (ML) models. The method is applied to two ML models for scientific sensing, which necessitates quantization to be deployed and are subject to noise and perturbations due to experimental conditions. Our method allows assessing the robustness of ML models to such effects as a function of quantization precision and under different regularization techniques -- two crucial concerns that remained underexplored so far. By investigating the interplay between performance, efficiency, and robustness by means of loss landscape analysis, we both established a strong correlation between gently-shaped landscapes and robustness to input and weight perturbations and observed other intriguing and non-obvious phenomena. Our method allows a systematic exploration of such trade-offs a priori, i.e., without training and testing multiple models, leading to more efficient development workflows. This work also highlights the importance of incorporating robustness into the Pareto optimization of ML models, enabling more reliable and adaptive scientific sensing systems.

Baldi, Tommaso [Pisa, Scuola Normale Superiore]↗

An Integrated Framework for Risk Assessment of Safety-related Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems in Nuclear Power Plants: Methodology Advancement and Application

This report documents activities performed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) during fiscal year (FY) 2024 for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, Risk Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway, Digital Instrumentation and Control (DI&C) Risk Assessment project. The goal of the RISA Pathway is to optimize safety margins and minimize uncertainties to achieve economic efficiencies while maintaining high levels of safety. This is accomplished by providing scientific basis to better represent safety margins and factors that contribute to cost and safety, and by developing new technologies that reduce operating costs. The research efforts for FY 2024 encompass methodology refinement and exploration. The efforts include: (1) The implementation of a natural language processing tool to expedite key aspects of the reliability analysis methods developed by INL; (2) advances to support intersystem CCF analysis by providing guidance for and identification of coupling mechanisms that may contribute to CCF; (3) the investigation of how generative artificial intelligence tools can aid in hazard analysis and diversity and defense in depth (i.e., D3) assessments; (4) Industry collaboration, allowing the demonstration of and INL's risk assessment tools to support risk assessment of DI&C systems at early and late stages of development; (4) a roadmap for the development of a software for each of INL's risk assessment tools; (5) The development of a theory and methodology manual for a risk quantification methodology; (6) the development of a reliability analysis for machine learning (ML)-integrated control systems.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Availability Estimation for Facilities in Extreme Geographical Locations

A value added analysis for the Reliability. Availability and Maintainability of McMurdo Ground Station was developed, which will be a useful tool for system managers in sparing, maintenance planning and determining vital performance metrics needed for readiness assessment of the upgrades to the McMurdo System. Output of this study can also be used as inputs and recommendations for the application of Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) for the system. ReliaSoft's BlockSim. a commercial Reliability Analysis software package, has been used to model the availability of the system upgrade to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Near Earth Network (NEN) Ground Station at McMurdo Station in the Antarctica. The logistics challenges due to the closure of access to McMurdo Station during the Antarctic winter was modeled using a weighted composite of four Weibull distributions. one of the possible choices for statistical distributions throughout the software program and usually used to account for failure rates of components supplied by different manufacturers. The inaccessibility of the antenna site on a hill outside McMurdo Station throughout one year due to severe weather was modeled with a Weibull distribution for the repair crew availability. The Weibull distribution is based on an analysis of the available weather data for the antenna site for 2007 in combination with the rules for travel restrictions due to severe weather imposed by the administrating agency, the National Science Foundation (NSF). The simulations resulted in an upper bound for the system availability and allowed for identification of components that would improve availability based on a higher on-site spare count than initially planned.

Fischer, Gerd M.↗

Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics and Optimum Fracture Control Analytical Procedures for a Reusable Solid Rocket Motor Case

A methodology for the reliability analysis of a reusable solid rocket motor case is discussed. The analysis is based on probabilistic fracture mechanics and probability distribution for initial flaw sizes. The developed reliability analysis is used to select the structural design variables of the solid rocket motor case on the basis of minimum expected cost and specified reliability bounds during the projected design life of the case. Effects of failure prevention plans such as nondestructive inspection and the material erosion between missions are also considered in the developed procedure for selection of design variables. The reliability-based procedure can be modified to consider other similar structures of reusable space vehicle systems with different failure prevention plans.

Hanagud, S.↗

Reusable solid rocket motor case - Optimum probabilistic fracture control

A methodology for the reliability analysis of a reusable solid rocket motor case is discussed in this paper. The analysis is based on probabilistic fracture mechanics and probability distribution for initial flaw sizes. The developed reliability analysis can be used to select the structural design variables of the solid rocket motor case on the basis of minimum expected cost and specified reliability bounds during the projected design life of the case. Effects on failure prevention plans such as nondestructive inspection and the material erosion between missions can also be considered in the developed procedure for selection of design variables. The reliability-based procedure that has been discussed in this paper can easily be modified to consider other similar structures of reusable space vehicle systems with different fracture control plans.

Hanagud, S.↗