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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty Quantification for Capacity Expansion Planning

This report quantifies the uncertainty in output decisions from a Capacity Expansion Planning (CEP) model. The need to understand how uncertainties within CEP models and modeling assumptions affect Quantities of Interest (QoIs) such as expansion and operating costs, as well as expansion decisions remains an ongoing challenge in scientific research and industrial operations. This area of research is particularly important for models which seek to capture how large networks will evolve and operate under increased sources of variable generation, i.e., higher penetration of renewable technologies such as solar and wind generators. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) of CEP models which estimate expansion costs and decisions, and production cost models which estimate operating costs and dispatch decisions, is a key focus of research at NREL. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) represents a state-of-the-art CEP model and considers a range of possible grid evolutions in an attempt to identify key drivers, ramifications, and decisions which contribute to better informed investment and policy decisions. However, research to quantify how uncertainties and model assumptions, such as unit commitment (UC), within ReEDS may be affecting its outputs remains challenging due to to size and complexity of the model

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development of Renewable Energy Data for Facilitating the Clean Energy Transition in Vietnam

Vietnam is transforming its power system with an increasing share of variable renewable energy (VRE) in the generation mix and plans to achieve 27% VRE by capacity in 2030 and 42% by capacity in 2045, as indicated by the draft Eighth Power Development Plan for 2020–-2045 (PDP8). Further increase in VRE penetration is possible with data-driven analysis where availability of data, specifically VRE data, becomes critical. NREL has worked with various stakeholders in Vietnam to create high-resolution multi-year VRE data publicly available to all. This paper reviews this new VRE data for Vietnam and how different stakeholders can use this data to inform VRE deployment decisions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2013

Wind/PV Generation for Frequency Regulation and Oscillation Damping in the Eastern Interconnection

This report presents the control of renewable energy sources, including the variable-speed wind generators and solar photovoltaic (PV) generators, for frequency regulation and inter-area oscillation damping in the U.S. Eastern Interconnection (EI). In this report, based on the user-defined wind/PV generator electrical control model and the 16,000-bus Eastern Interconnection dynamic model, the additional controllers for frequency regulation and inter-area oscillation damping are developed and incorporated and the potential contributions of renewable energy sources to the EI system frequency regulation and inter-area oscillation damping are evaluated.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improved Decarbonization Planning through Climate Resiliency Modeling

California has set ambitious decarbonization goals concerning both emissions and the portion of energy generated by renewable resources. However, climate change poses considerable uncertainties. Variation in load is driven both by the level of electrification as well as the impact of climate change on weather. Further, climate change stands to make weather more variable, impacting not just load but generation from renewable resources. In this paper, we approach the issue of the impacts of climate change on decarbonization planning from two perspectives. First, we look at the range of decarbonization pathways through 8 pathways that account for differences in socioeconomic development, global emissions, and warming. Second, we develop a more robust way of ensuring the reliability of energy resources planning than the commonly used planning reserve margin. We show that the proposed method can save between 6 and 14 billion dollars in investment and maintenance costs and outline critical policy implications concerning the reliance of power plants for satisfying planning reliability requirements, including the potential retirement of dozens of peaker power plants.

Anderson, Osten P.↗
DOE OSTI2012

Impact of Transmission on Resource Adequacy in Systems with Wind and Solar Power: Preprint

Variable generation is on track to become a significant contributor to electric power systems worldwide. Thus, it is important to analyze the effect that renewables will have on the reliability of systems. In this paper we present a new tool being implemented at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, which allows the inclusion of variable generation in the power system resource adequacy. Thetool is used to quantify the potential contribution of transmission to reliability in highly interconnected systems and an example is provided using the Western Interconnection footprint.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

A reduced-form approach for representing the impacts of wind and solar PV deployment on the structure and operation of the electricity system

In many climate change mitigation scenarios, integrated assessment models of the energy and climate systems rely heavily on renewable energy technologies with variable and uncertain generation, such as wind and solar PV, to achieve substantial decarbonization of the electricity sector. However, these models often include very little temporal resolution and thus have difficulty in representing the integration costs that arise from mismatches between electricity supply and demand. The global integrated assessment model, MESSAGE, has been updated to explicitly model the trade-offs between variable renewable energy (VRE) deployment and its impacts on the electricity system, including the implications for electricity curtailment, backup capacity, and system flexibility. These impacts have been parameterized using a reduced-form approach, which allows VRE integration impacts to be quantified on a regional basis. In addition, thermoelectric technologies were updated to include two modes of operation, baseload and flexible, to better account for the cost, efficiency, and availability penalties associated with flexible operation. In this paper, the modeling approach used in MESSAGE is explained and the implications for VRE deployment in mitigation scenarios are assessed. Three important stylized facts associated with integrating high VRE shares are successfully reproduced by our modeling approach: (1) the significant reduction in the utilization of non-VRE power plants; (2) the diminishing role for traditional baseload generators, such as nuclear and coal, and the transition to more flexible technologies; and (3) the importance of electricity storage and hydrogen electrolysis in facilitating the deployment of VRE.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2019

The long-term impacts of carbon and variable renewable energy policies on electricity markets

We present a computationally-efficient optimization model that finds the least-cost generation unit expansion, commitment, and dispatch plan to serve hourly electricity demand and ancillary service requirements. We apply the model to a case study based on data from the electricity market in Texas (ERCOT) to analyze the market and investment impacts of several incentive mechanisms that support variable renewable energy (VRE) investments and carbon emission reductions. In contrast to many previous studies, the model determines least-cost VRE investments under different cost and incentive assumptions rather than analyzing scenarios where VRE expansion is pre-determined. We find that electricity prices can vary significantly under different incentive mechanisms, even when comparable generation portfolios result. Therefore, the preferred incentive mechanism depends on stakeholder objectives as well as the prevailing electricity market framework. Our results indicate that a carbon tax is more system cost-efficient for reducing emissions, while production and investment tax credits are more system cost-efficient for increasing VRE investments. Similarly, incentive mechanisms that reduce electricity prices may increase the need for separate revenue sufficiency mechanisms (e.g. a capacity market) more than a policy that increases electricity prices. Moreover, the impacts on consumer payments are not always aligned with changes in system costs. Overall, the analysis illustrates the importance of considering electricity market impacts in assessing the economic efficiency of VRE and carbon incentive mechanisms.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Variability of interconnected wind plants: correlation length and its dependence on variability time scale

The variability in wind-generated electricity complicates the integration of this electricity into the electrical grid. This challenge steepens as the percentage of renewably-generated electricity on the grid grows, but variability can be reduced by exploiting geographic diversity: correlations between wind farms decrease as the separation between wind farms increases. However, how far is far enough to reduce variability? Grid management requires balancing production on various timescales, and so consideration of correlations reflective of those timescales can guide the appropriate spatial scales of geographic diversity grid integration. To answer 'how far is far enough,' we investigate the universal behavior of geographic diversity by exploring wind-speed correlations using three extensive datasets spanning continents, durations and time resolution. First, one year of five-minute wind power generation data from 29 wind farms span 1270 km across Southeastern Australia (Australian Energy Market Operator). Second, 45 years of hourly 10 m wind-speeds from 117 stations span 5000 km across Canada (National Climate Data Archive of Environment Canada). Finally, four years of five-minute wind-speeds from 14 meteorological towers span 350 km of the Northwestern US (Bonneville Power Administration). After removing diurnal cycles and seasonal trends from all datasets, we investigate dependence of correlation length on time scale by digitally high-pass filtering the data on 0.25–2000 h timescales and calculating correlations between sites for each high-pass filter cut-off. Correlations fall to zero with increasing station separation distance, but the characteristic correlation length varies with the high-pass filter applied: the higher the cut-off frequency, the smaller the station separation required to achieve de-correlation. Remarkable similarities between these three datasets reveal behavior that, if universal, could be particularly useful for grid management. For high-pass filter time constants shorter than about τ = 38 h, all datasets exhibit a correlation length $\xi $ that falls at least as fast as ${{\tau }^{-1}}$ . Since the inter-site separation needed for statistical independence falls for shorter time scales, higher-rate fluctuations can be effectively smoothed by aggregating wind plants over areas smaller than otherwise estimated.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Grid Integration and the Carrying Capacity of the U.S. Grid to Incorporate Variable Renewable Energy

In the United States and elsewhere, renewable energy (RE) generation supplies an increasingly large percentage of annual demand, including nine U.S. states where wind comprised over 10% of in-state generation in 2013. This white paper summarizes the challenges to integrating increasing amounts of variable RE, identifies emerging practices in power system planning and operation that can facilitate grid integration, and proposes a unifying concept—economic carrying capacity—that can provide a framework for evaluating actions to accommodate higher penetrations of RE. There is growing recognition that while technical challenges to variable RE integration are real, they can generally be addressed via a variety of solutions that vary in implementation cost. As a result, limits to RE penetration are primarily economic, driven by factors that include transmission and the flexibility of the power grid to balance supply and demand. This limit can be expressed as economic carrying capacity, or the point at which variable RE is no longer economically competitive or desirable to the system or society.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2017

Chapter 11: Marine and Hydrokinetic Power Generation and Power Plants

Marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) power generation is a relatively new type of renewable generation. Predecessors such as wind power generation, hydropower plant generation, geothermal generation, photovoltaic generation, and solar thermal generation have gained a lot of attention because of their successful implementation. The successful integration of renewable generation into the electric power grid has energized the power system global communities to take the lessons learned, innovations, and market structure to focus on the large potential of MHK to also contribute to the pool of renewable energy generation. This chapter covers the broad spectrum of MHK generation. The state-of-the-art power takeoff methods will be discussed. Types of electrical generators will be presented, and the options for implementation will be presented.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2024

Baseload Hydrogen Production Using Nuclear and Renewable Energy: A Comparative Analysis

As the global push towards net zero carbon gains momentum, the demand for clean hydrogen is expected to grow rapidly across various sectors, including transportation, industries and electrical grids. To meet this growing hydrogen demand, baseload hydrogen production facilities capable of providing a continuous and reliable supply of hydrogen will be necessary throughout the world. This paper explores the technoeconomic feasibility of establishing baseload electrolytic hydrogen production facilities in the United States, utilizing different clean generation resources. The key criteria include maintaining a consistent supply of clean hydrogen without putting baseload demand stress to already vulnerable power grid. In order to do that, the proposed facilities will host onsite clean power generation and energy storage technologies. The proposed facilities can capitalize on available investment and production incentives and have ability to export excess electricity to the utility at a bulk price. Several scenarios are considered based on the clean energy resources to support the electrolysis process including light water reactors (LWRs) currently evaluating retirement options, wind, solar PVs, and advanced small modular reactors (SMRs). For each scenario, a hypothetical hydrogen production facility is considered in a location in the US where the primary generation resource is at its peak strength. Comparative analysis in this paper reveal that the nuclear power plants are most economically viable for baseload hydrogen production facilities, outperforming renewable-based facilities with significantly lower levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH). Even under best-case scenarios for resource availability, incentives and export prices, renewable-based facilities face challenges due to daily and seasonal generation variability, resulting in large installation sizes and lower capacity factors. Among renewable-based facilities, complementarity hybrids, providing more stable power supply, demonstrate superior economics compared to facilities based on a single renewable technology. While LWR-powered facility can achieve a negative LCOH with incentives, SMR-powered facilities can provide economic hydrogen supply with LCOH below $1/kg with high temperature electrolysis option. The analysis in this paper underscores the pivotal role of nuclear energy in the future hydrogen economy.

08 - HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Technical and Economic Assessment of LWR Flexible Operation for Generation and Demand Balancing to Optimize Plant Revenue

With increased penetration of subsidized variable renewable energy (VRE) resources and competition from low natural gas prices, existing light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPPs) are struggling to remain economically competitive. This work examines the potential economic competitiveness of various thermal energy storage (TES) technologies when coupled directly or indirectly with a NPP. To highlight their relative economic competitiveness, we contrast several energy storage solutions in stochastic dispatch optimization. We leverage data from recent work analyzing a range of TES technologies with varying capital costs, performance, and technology readiness level (TRL) to establish our case. We explore inserting these technologies into an electricity market with existing nuclear generation and large projected variable renewable energy (VRE) penetration. Although these technologies' projected capital costs may make them unlikely candidates in their current state, this analysis demonstrates a high-fidelity techno-economic analysis of energy storage. Furthermore, as the projected cost of energy storage technologies evolves, this analysis sets a precedent for similar future investigations. One region with projected trends that may be unfavorable for existing nuclear capacity is the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) market. New York state’s baseload generation has been historically provided by fossil-fired and nuclear assets. However, amid economic pressures from subsidized VREs and low natural gas prices, the state has recently deactivated Indian Point nuclear power plant units 2 and 3. Furthermore, the state plans to meet its zero-emission generation target by 2040 by replacing fossil-fired capacity with significant investments in VRE resources like wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery storage. Increased intermittent resource penetration lowers the baseload power requirement, adding further economic pressure to the state’s three remaining NPPs still in operation. With three NPPs still in operation in New York, this work analyzes potential economic benefits to NPPs on the New York grid when directly or indirectly coupled with various TES technologies. This work requires two modeling steps to analyze the potential economic benefits of various system configurations of the TES directly or indirectly coupled with nuclear. First, this analysis leverages capacity expansion modeling by experts at the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). Using their deterministic capacity expansion model, U.S. Regional Economy, Greenhouse Gas, and Energy (US-REGEN), EPRI analysts evaluated the capacity and generation evolution of the New York state energy market under four projection scenarios. These four projection scenarios were developed to represent the potential evolution of the capacity and generation in NYISO from 2015 to 2050 under various economic, technology, and policy constraints. The results from these capacity expansion models are then used as boundary conditions in the second modeling step. The second modeling step uses the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) for a set of stochastic techno-economic analyses (STEAs) to investigate the potential increase in the economic viability of various configurations of the TES. With no current capacity expansion capabilities, HERON takes the data generated from US-REGEN for 2050 to generate synthetic load, solar, and wind data. Then HERON economically optimizes the capacity and dispatch of the various TES configurations. The potential economic benefit is the differential net present value (NPV) of the TES configurations from the no-TES baseline. As a stochastic techno-economic analysis package, HERON introduces uncertainty into the economic metrics, while US-REGEN trades resolution for reduced computational complexity. Using HERON also allows the modeling of direct thermal coupling, a feature not common in capacity and dispatch models. As expected, with high capital costs, the costs of introducing energy storage for all the technologies considered outweighed the potential economic benefit of this strategy for flexible plant operation. The benefit of this analysis is primarily in demonstrating a workflow that examines innovative solutions to increase NPP revenue via TES coupling. HERON’s stochastic capacity and dispatch optimization process used in this work has proven an effective tool in observing and evaluating the impact of introducing storage technologies in a grid energy system.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Transient Stability Assessment of Power Systems With Uncertain Renewable Generation: Preprint

The transient stability of a power system depends heavily on its operational state at the moment of a fault. In systems where the penetration of renewable generation is significant, the dispatch of the conventional fleet of synchronous generators is uncertain at the time of dynamic security analysis. Hence, the assessment of transient stability requires the solution of a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations with unknown initial conditions and inputs. To this end, we set forth a computational framework that relies on Taylor polynomials, where variables are associated with the level of renewable generation. This paper describes the details of the method and illustrates its application on a nine-bus test system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2011

Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS)

The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) is a deterministic optimization model of the deployment of electric power generation technologies and transmission infrastructure throughout the contiguous United States into the future. The model, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Strategic Energy Analysis Center, is designed to analyze the critical energy issues in the electric sector, especially with respect to potential energy policies, such as clean energy and renewable energy standards or carbon restrictions. ReEDS provides a detailed treatment of electricity-generating and electrical storage technologies and specifically addresses a variety of issues related to renewable energy technologies, including accessibility and cost of transmission, regional quality of renewable resources, seasonal and diurnal generation profiles, variability of wind and solar power, and the influence of variability on the reliability of the electrical grid. ReEDS addresses these issues through a highly discretized regional structure, explicit statistical treatment of the variability in wind and solar output over time, and consideration of ancillary services' requirements and costs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2017

Grid-Level Application of Electrical Energy Storage: Example Use Cases in the United States and China

Electrical energy storage (EES) systems are expected to play an increasing role in helping the United States and China-the world's largest economies with the two largest power systems-meet the challenges of integrating more variable renewable resources and enhancing the reliability of power systems by improving the operating capabilities of the electric grid. EES systems are becoming integral components of a resilient and efficient grid through a diverse set of applications that include energy management, load shifting, frequency regulation, grid stabilization, and voltage support.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2013

Distributed Smart Grid Asset Control Strategies for Providing Ancillary Services

With large-scale plans to integrate renewable generation driven mainly by state-level renewable portfolio requirements, more resources will be needed to compensate for the uncertainty and variability associated with intermittent generation resources. Distributed assets can be used to mitigate the concerns associated with renewable energy resources and to keep costs down. Under such conditions, performing primary frequency control using only supply-side resources becomes not only prohibitively expensive but also technically difficult. It is therefore important to explore how a sufficient proportion of the loads could assume a routine role in primary frequency control to maintain the stability of the system at an acceptable cost. The main objective of this project is to develop a novel hierarchical distributed framework for frequency based load control. The framework involves two decision layers. The top decision layer determines the optimal gain for aggregated loads for each load bus. The gains are computed using decentralized robust control methods, and will be broadcast to the corresponding participating loads every control period. The second layer consists of a large number of heterogeneous devices, which switch probabilistically during contingencies so that aggregated power change matches the desired amount according to the most recently received gains. The simulation results show great potential to enable systematic design of demand-side primary frequency control with stability guarantees on the overall power system. The proposed design systematically accounts for the interactions between the total load response and bulk power system frequency dynamics. It also guarantees frequency stability under a wide range of time varying operating conditions. The local device-level load response rules fully respect the device constraints (such as temperature setpoint, compressor time delays of HVACs, or arrival and departure of the deferrable loads), which are crucial for implementing real load control programs. The promise of autonomous, Grid Friendly™ response by smart appliances in the form of under-frequency load shedding was demonstrated in the GridWise Olympic Peninsula Demonstration in 2006. Each controller monitored the power grid voltage signal and requested that electrical load be shed by its appliance whenever electric power-grid frequency fell below 59.95 Hz. The controllers and their appliances responded reliably to each shallow under-frequency event, which was an average of one event per day and shed their loads for the durations of these events. Another objective of this project was to perform extensive simulation studies to investigate the impact of a population of Grid Friendly™ Appliances (GFAs) on the bulk power system frequency stability. The GFAs considered in this report are represented as demonstration units with water heaters individually modeled.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗