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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2026

Microstructure‐Informed Analysis Framework for Lattice Structures: Guiding Topology‐Material Synergy in Titanium Alloys

In this work we discuss a microstructure‐informed analysis framework for lattice structures that maps the material's microstructural response to guide topology selection and mechanical performance optimization. By coupling geometrical topology with intrinsic material behavior, we demonstrate how anisotropic microstructural response can inform the design of optimized lattice structures. To illustrate this concept, we focus on two distinct classes of titanium alloys: Ti5553 (Ti‐5Al‐5Mo‐5V‐3Cr wt%), which exhibits a predominantly ‐phase microstructure, and Ti64 (Ti‐6Al‐4V wt%), which features a dual‐phase structure. These alloys exhibit markedly different mechanical responses under multiaxial loading in “fully dense” solid form. The strut‐level stress analysis of these alloys reveals how specific microstructural characteristics can guide the selection of appropriate lattice topologies. Two representative lattice configurations, one stretching‐dominated and one bending‐dominated, are evaluated under identical loading conditions to explore how microstructure‐driven design can lead to topology choices that are better suited to accommodate shear or other critical local stress states, thereby enhancing mechanical performance. A strut‐level mechanics‐based analysis is performed to evaluate shear stress distribution and highlight the role of topology‐microstructure synergy and compatibility in determining overall lattice behavior. The findings emphasize the importance of designing structures that are both load‐aware and microstructure‐responsive, enabling more effective material utilization in advanced engineering applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Validating the galaxy and quasar catalog-level blinding scheme for the DESI 2024 analysis

In the era of precision cosmology, ensuring the integrity of data analysis through blinding techniques is paramount — a challenge particularly relevant for the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). DESI represents a monumental effort to map the cosmic web, with the goal to measure the redshifts of tens of millions of galaxies and quasars. Given the data volume and the impact of the findings, the potential for confirmation bias poses a significant challenge. To address this, we implement and validate a comprehensive blind analysis strategy for DESI Data Release 1 (DR1), tailored to the specific observables DESI is most sensitive to: Baryonic Acoustic Oscillations (BAO), Redshift-Space Distortion (RSD) and primordial non-Gaussianities (PNG). We carry out the blinding at the catalog level, implementing shifts in the redshifts of the observed galaxies to blind for BAO and RSD signals and weights to blind for PNG through a scale-dependent bias. We validate the blinding technique on mocks as well as on data by applying a second blinding layer to perform a series of sanity checks; the latter allows probing complexities in real data not captured in mocks. We find that the blinding strategy alters the data vector in a controlled way, and the BAO and RSD analysis choices are robust to blinding. The successful validation of the blinding strategy paves the way for the unblinded DESI DR1 analysis, alongside future blind analyses with DESI and other surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Computational Analysis of Hydraulic Efficiency of Michigan DOT Covers J and K

Drainage structures are used in urban street and highway systems to capture stormwater runoff. These structures typically consist of catch basins fitted with grates, inlets, or combination grate/inlet configurations that collect runoff and convey it through buried drainage systems. They are strategically placed within curb-and-gutter systems to enhance public safety by efficiently removing water from roadways and thereby reducing the risk of hydroplaning. The performance of drainage structures is commonly evaluated in terms of hydraulic efficiency, defined as the percentage of flow captured by the basin relative to the total flow reaching the structure. Understanding the hydraulic performance of these structures allows designers to properly space inlets, resulting in cost-effective designs that also help ensure the safety of the traveling public. MDOT uses a variety of drainage structures for runoff capture, as documented in Michigan Department of Transportation (MDOT) Drainage Manual. Many of these structures incorporate sinusoidal-type grates that are not addressed in HEC-22. Because physical modeling of these structures has been limited, further analysis is needed to verify their capture efficiency. Under current MDOT practice, the capture efficiency of these grates is estimated by assuming performance similar to that of a comparably sized reticuline grate described in HEC22. The first phase of this effort, titled Computational Analysis of Hydraulic Efficiency of Michigan DOT Cover C, focused on evaluating the hydraulic performance of MDOT’s Cover C grate. Cover C was selected as the initial test candidate because its sinusoidal pattern is representative of other MDOT grates, while it is typically used in high-volume, higher-speed applications. A similar version, Cover CX, is used on interstate highways but does not include transverse bars for bicycle safety. The current second phase of the study expands this work to evaluate MDOT’s Covers J and K. These grates were selected for additional analysis to further assess the hydraulic performance of MDOT drainage structures that are not directly represented by grate configurations in HEC-22. The results of this phase will build on the findings from the Cover C analysis and support improved understanding of the capture efficiency of MDOT’s standard drainage grates. This report is intended to serve as a companion document to the earlier study, Computational Analysis of Hydraulic Efficiency of Michigan DOT Cover C [3]. The present work applies the same overall CFD-based evaluation approach to MDOT Covers J and K and compares the resulting performance trends with those previously identified for Cover C. In particular, both studies assess on-grade interception efficiency, sag-location hydraulic capacity, and the effects of partial obstruction relative to HEC-22-based design estimates.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mapping Thermal Conductivity at the Atomic Scale: A Step toward the Thermal Design of Materials

We describe a spatial decomposition of the thermal conductivity, termed site-projected thermal conductivity, which quantifies the thermal conduction activity at each atomic site—a critical parameter for the thermal design of materials. The method is based on the Green–Kubo formula and the harmonic approximation and requires the force-constant and dynamical matrices, as well as a relaxed structural model. Throughout the study, it uses high quality models previously tested and compared to many experiments. It discusses the method and underlying approximations for amorphous silicon, carries the detailed analysis for amorphous silicon, and then examines an amorphous-crystal silicon interface and representative carbon materials. This study identifies the sites and local structures that reduce heat transport, and quantify these (estimate the spatial range) over which these “thermal defects” are effective. It identifies filamentary structures in the amorphous silicon network which impact heat transport and electronic structure (the Urbach edge) and electronic transport.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stress localization investigation of additively manufactured GRCop-42 thin-wall structure

A full-field crystal plasticity (CP) framework is presented for the GRCop-42 alloy to study microscopic mechanical behavior and local stress heterogeneities. The microstructures of additively manufactured (AM) materials are often unique relative to conventionally processed materials, and the local thermal histories drive these differences during the build process. These thermal histories depend on the process parameters (laser power, scan speed, and scan strategy) and the part geometry. Prior research has shown that the mechanical properties of thin-walled structures can vary significantly with wall thickness due to changes in the thermal boundary conditions during manufacturing. It is, therefore, desirable to perform CP simulations based on the phenomenological constitutive model to predict the local mechanical responses induced by microstructural heterogeneities. This work generates representative microstructures based on experimentally collected grain information (i.e., texture) for grain scale stress analysis, and the material constitutive parameters are calibrated using the experimental mechanical testing data. Here, we specifically investigated the effect of crystallographic texture and grain morphologies on the size-dependent mechanical properties of AM GRCop-42. The selection of appropriate material properties for implementing an effective free surface boundary condition and the influence of adjacent buffer layers are also discussed. Analysis of local field results reveals a strong correlation between stress localization and the initial grain orientation. However, no significant relationship between the misorientation of the individual adjacent grains and the average misorientation is observed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Introducing Molecular Hypernetworks for Discovery in Multidimensional Metabolomics Data

Orthogonal separations of data from high-resolution mass spectrometry can provide insight into sample composition and address challenges of complete annotation of molecules in untargeted metabolomics. “Molecular networks” (MNs), as used in the Global Natural Products Social Molecular Networking platform, are a prominent strategy for exploring and visualizing molecular relationships and improving annotation. MNs are mathematical graphs showing the relationships between measured multidimensional data features. MNs also show promise for using network science algorithms to automatically identify targets for annotation candidates and to dereplicate features associated with a single molecular identity. Here, this paper introduces “molecular hypernetworks” (MHNs) as more complex MN models able to natively represent multiway relationships among observations. Compared to MNs, MHNs can more parsimoniously represent the inherent complexity present among groups of observations, initially supporting improved exploratory data analysis and visualization. MHNs also promise to increase confidence in annotation propagation, for both human and analytical processing. We first illustrate MHNs with simple examples, and build them from liquid chromatography- and ion mobility spectrometry-separated MS data. We then describe a method to construct MHNs directly from existing MNs as their “clique reconstructions”, demonstrating their utility by comparing examples of previously published graph-based MNs to their respective MHNs.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hydropower capacity factors trending down in the United States

Abstract The United States hydropower fleet has faced increasing environmental and regulatory pressures over the last half century, potentially constraining total generation. Here we show that annual capacity factor has declined at four fifths of United States hydropower plants since 1980, with two thirds of decreasing trends significant at p < 0.05. Results are based on an analysis of annual energy generation totals and nameplate capacities for 610 plants (>5 megawatt), representing 87% of total conventional hydropower capacity in the United States. On aggregate, changes in capacity factor imply a fleetwide, cumulative generation decrease of 23% since 1980 before factoring in capacity upgrades—akin to retiring a Hoover Dam once every two to three years. Changes in water availability explain energy decline in only 21% of plants, highlighting the importance of non-climatic drivers of generation, including deterioration of plant equipment as well as changes to dam operations in support of nonpower objectives.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Augmenting machine learning of Grad–Shafranov equilibrium reconstruction with Green's functions

This work presents a method for predicting plasma equilibria in tokamak fusion experiments and reactors. The approach involves representing the plasma current as a linear combination of basis functions using principal component analysis of plasma toroidal current densities (J t ) from the EFIT-AI equilibrium database. Then utilizing EFIT's Green's function tables, basis functions are created for the poloidal flux (ψ) and diagnostics generated from the toroidal current (J t ). Similar to the idea of a physics-informed neural network (NN), this physically enforces consistency between ψ, J t , and the synthetic diagnostics. First, the predictive capability of a least squares technique to minimize the error on the synthetic diagnostics is employed. The results show that the method achieves high accuracy in predicting ψ and moderate accuracy in predicting J t with median R 2 = 0.9993 and R 2 = 0.978, respectively. A comprehensive NN using a network architecture search is also employed to predict the coefficients of the basis functions. The NN demonstrates significantly better performance compared to the least squares method with median R 2 = 0.9997 and 0.9916 for J t and ψ, respectively. The robustness of the method is evaluated by handling missing or incorrect data through the least squares filling of missing data, which shows that the NN prediction remains strong even with a reduced number of diagnostics. Additionally, the method is tested on plasmas outside of the training range showing reasonable results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Overview of ASDEX upgrade results in view of ITER and DEMO

Experiments on ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) in 2021 and 2022 have addressed a number of critical issues for ITER and EU DEMO. A major objective of the AUG programme is to shed light on the underlying physics of confinement, stability, and plasma exhaust in order to allow reliable extrapolation of results obtained on present day machines to these reactor-grade devices. Concerning pedestal physics, the mitigation of edge localised modes (ELMs) using resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) was found to be consistent with a reduction of the linear peeling-ballooning stability threshold due to the helical deformation of the plasma. Conversely, ELM suppression by RMPs is ascribed to an increased pedestal transport that keeps the plasma away from this boundary. Candidates for this increased transport are locally enhanced turbulence and a locked magnetic island in the pedestal. The enhanced D-alpha (EDA) and quasi-continuous exhaust (QCE) regimes have been established as promising ELM-free scenarios. Here, the pressure gradient at the foot of the H-mode pedestal is reduced by a quasi-coherent mode, consistent with violation of the high-n ballooning mode stability limit there. This is suggestive that the EDA and QCE regimes have a common underlying physics origin. In the area of transport physics, full radius models for both L- and H-modes have been developed. These models predict energy confinement in AUG better than the commonly used global scaling laws, representing a large step towards the goal of predictive capability. A new momentum transport analysis framework has been developed that provides access to the intrinsic torque in the plasma core. In the field of exhaust, the X-Point Radiator (XPR), a cold and dense plasma region on closed flux surfaces close to the X-point, was described by an analytical model that provides an understanding of its formation as well as its stability, i.e., the conditions under which it transitions into a deleterious MARFE with the potential to result in a disruptive termination. With the XPR close to the divertor target, a new detached divertor concept, the compact radiative divertor, was developed. Here, the exhaust power is radiated before reaching the target, allowing close proximity of the X-point to the target. No limitations by the shallow field line angle due to the large flux expansion were observed, and sufficient compression of neutral density was demonstrated. With respect to the pumping of non-recycling impurities, the divertor enrichment was found to mainly depend on the ionisation energy of the impurity under consideration. In the area of MHD physics, analysis of the hot plasma core motion in sawtooth crashes showed good agreement with nonlinear 2-fluid simulations. This indicates that the fast reconnection observed in these events is adequately described including the pressure gradient and the electron inertia in the parallel Ohm’s law. Concerning disruption physics, a shattered pellet injection system was installed in collaboration with the ITER International Organisation. Thanks to the ability to vary the shard size distribution independently of the injection velocity, as well as its impurity admixture, it was possible to tailor the current quench rate, which is an important requirement for future large devices such as ITER. Progress was also made modelling the force reduction of VDEs induced by massive gas injection on AUG. The H-mode density limit was characterised in terms of safe operational space with a newly developed active feedback control method that allowed the stability boundary to be probed several times within a single discharge without inducing a disruptive termination. Regarding integrated operation scenarios, the role of density peaking in the confinement of the ITER baseline scenario (high plasma current) was clarified. The usual energy confinement scaling ITER98(p,y) does not capture this effect, but the more recent H20 scaling does, highlighting again the importance of developing adequate physics based models. Advanced tokamak scenarios, aiming at large non-inductive current fraction due to non-standard profiles of the safety factor in combination with high normalised plasma pressure were studied with a focus on their access conditions. A method to guide the approach of the targeted safety factor profiles was developed, and the conditions for achieving good confinement were clarified. Based on this, two types of advanced scenarios (‘hybrid’ and ‘elevated’

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Cryogenic Muon Tagging System Integrated with a Superconducting Qubit Device for Radiation-Induced Error Mitigation

Superconducting qubits are highly sensitive to ionizing radiation, which can induce correlated errors and limit scalable fault-tolerant quantum computing. In particular, cosmic-ray muons can deposit energy in the substrate, generating phonon bursts that break Cooper pairs and produce quasiparticles, leading to correlated decoherence events across multiple qubits. We present the development of a cryogenic muon tagging system based on Kinetic Inductance Detectors (KIDs) and its integration with superconducting quantum hardware. Originally developed within the ACE-SuperQ project and validated as a standalone detector, the system demonstrated a muon tagging efficiency of approximately 90% and excellent agreement with Monte Carlo simulations. Building on this validation, the tagging system has been integrated with a multi-qubit superconducting chip operated in a dilution refrigerator. The detector configuration consists of a multi-layer KID stack arranged above and below the quantum device, enabling time-coincident identification of muon-induced events within the same cryogenic environment. The integrated setup has been successfully commissioned, enabling simultaneous operation of the qubit chip and the muon tagging system. A first measurement campaign has been carried out, and preliminary data show time-correlated events between the muon tagging detectors and the qubit readout. A quantitative analysis of radiation-induced effects on qubit performance is currently ongoing. This work represents a step toward the implementation of event-level radiation tagging as a tool for characterizing and potentially mitigating correlated errors in superconducting quantum processors, while establishing a modular platform for future studies at the interface between particle physics and quantum information science.

Roy, Tanay [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000019442862X)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Growth-associated polyhydroxybutyrate accumulation in Azospira suillum PS during aerobic and perchlorate respiration

Polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHAs) are widespread microbial storage polymers increasingly recognized for roles beyond carbon and energy storage, including redox homeostasis and stress physiology. While PHA accumulation is classically associated with stationary-phase metabolism under severe nutrient imbalance, comparatively little is known about growth-associated PHA synthesis in facultative anaerobes with unusual respiratory strategies. Here, we investigated polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB) metabolism in Azospira suillum PS, a genetically tractable perchlorate-reducing bacterium capable of both aerobic and anaerobic respiration. Using physiological growth experiments, targeted gene deletions, PHB extractions, and intracellular redox measurements, we examined PHB accumulation under varying respiratory and nutrient conditions. We demonstrate that PHB accumulates during exponential growth under moderately nitrogen-limited conditions, both aerobically and during perchlorate respiration, representing a rare example of growth-associated PHB synthesis under anaerobic conditions. Genomic analysis revealed four phaC homologs, one of which could not be deleted under the experimental conditions tested and co-localized with phaB and phaR. Redox profiling further revealed a strong positive correlation between PHB accumulation and intracellular NADPH/NADP+ ratios. Together, these findings expand the physiological contexts in which PHB synthesis is known to occur and highlight perchlorate-respiring bacteria as underexplored model systems for studying growth-integrated carbon and redox storage strategies.

Meier, David A O↗
DOE OSTI2025

Searches for New Physics With Muon Conversion at Fermilab and Triboson Production at the LHC

We report on several efforts to search for physics beyond the standard model of particle physics at broad energy scales. The Mu2e experiment at Fermilab will search for charged lepton flavor violation via the muon to electron conversion process, which is suppressed in the Standard Model. Mu2e will be operated at a low energy, yet can probe New Physics at very high mass scales (O(1e3 - 1e4 ) TeV). At high energies, the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC continues to deliver an impressive suite of Standard Model measurements and limits on a variety of New Physics signatures. Mu2e is under construction and slated to collect its first physics data in the coming years. This thesis describes work done during the construction phase of Mu2e and focuses on two critical areas: magnetic field modeling and statistical analysis. We describe a novel method for field modeling which we validate using a simulated dataset representing the expected magnetic field in the Detector Solenoid. This method blends a standard least-squares fitting technique that utilizes physically motivated analytical model functions with a novel physics informed network that is constructed to obey Maxwell’s equations. We show the technique can model the field with an accuracy of 10−7 despite the presence of injected noise in the pseudo-measurements at the 10−5 level. We then present preliminary results of the calibration of 3D Hall probes at the sub-10−4 level. These probes will be used to directly measure the Mu2e Detector Solenoid magnetic field on a sparse grid; these measurements serve as the input to the field model fitting. Finally, we describe the first implementation of both an unbinned shape analysis and a Bayesian interpretation applied to Mu2e pseudo-data. Up to 20% tighter limits can be set by the shape analysis compared to a standard cut & count analysis. The AlCap experiment collected data at PSI in 2015 to measure several important quantities related to nuclear muon capture on an aluminum target, which is a significant background process for Mu2e. The neutron emission from muon capture can introduce background hits in the Mu2e detectors and can increase radiation damage in various elements of the apparatus. We present measurements of the neutron group fluence and mean neutron multiplicity for muon capture on aluminum nuclei. Finally, we discuss an analysis of triboson production at CMS using an Effective Field Theory framework. Standard Model triboson production, which was first observed at CMS in 2020, has a relatively small cross section and provides direct access to both anomalous triple gauge couplings and quartic gauge couplings. These couplings, interpreted in the Standard Model Effective Field Theory, are studied in the present work. We target the boosted regime where the background rate is low and yields are enhanced when dimension-6 and dimension-8 Wilson coefficients are non-zero. We do not observe an excess in the data and therefore set bounds on the Wilson coefficients. For dimension-6 coefficients the tightest observed (expected) bounds are set on cW /Λ2 where Λ is the mass scale of new physics; the bounds are [−0.13, 0.12] TeV−2 ([−0.12, 0.12] TeV−2 ) at 95% CL. The tightest bounds in dimension-8 are set on fT,0 / Λ4 ; the observed (expected) bounds at 95% CL are [−0.63, 0.69] TeV−4 ([−0.54, 0.62] TeV−4 ). Additional results are presented which include scenarios where multiple Wilson coefficients are non-zero, the application of signal model clipping to address unitarity violation in Effective Field Theories, and a novel template fit developed for easier reinterpretation of our results.

Kampa, Cole Erik [Northwestern U. (main)] (ORCID:0↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Autoconversion Representation in E3SMv2 Using an Ensemble of Large-Eddy Simulations of Low-Level Warm Clouds

In numerical atmospheric models that treat cloud and rain droplet populations as separate condensate categories, precipitation initiation in warm clouds is often represented by an autoconversion rate (Au), which is the rate of formation of new rain droplets through the collisions of cloud droplets. Being a function of the cloud droplet size distribution (DSD), the local Au is commonly parameterized as a function of DSD moments: cloud droplet number (n c ) and mass (q c ) concentrations. When applied in a large-scale model, the grid-mean Au must also include a correction, or enhancement factor, to account for the horizontal variability of the cloud properties across the model grid. In this study, we evaluate the Au representation in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) climate model using large-eddy simulations (LES), which explicitly resolve cloud droplet spectra, and therefore the local Au, as well as its spatial variability. The analysis of an ensemble of warm low-level cloud cases shows that the E3SMv2 formulation represents the Au reasonably well compared to the horizontally averaged explicitly computed rate from LES. The agreement, however, comes from a combination of an underestimated E3SM-tuned local Au rate and an overestimated subgrid cloud variability enhancement factor. The latter bias is traced to neglecting the horizontal variability of n c and its co-variability with q c in parameterizing the grid-mean Au.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Unified Description of Cuprate Superconductors by Fractionalized Electrons Emerging from Integrated Analyses of Photoemission Spectra and Quasiparticle Interference

Electronic structure of high-temperature superconducting cuprates is studied by analyzing experimental data independently obtained from two complementary spectroscopies: one, quasiparticle interference (QPI) measured by scanning-tunneling microscopy, and the other, angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy (ARPES). We combine these two sets of data in a unified theoretical analysis. Through explicit calculations of experimentally measurable quantities, we show that a simple two-component fermion model (TCFM) representing electron fractionalization succeeds in reproducing various detailed features of these experimental data: ARPES and QPI data are concomitantly reproduced by the TCFM in full energy and momentum spaces. The measured QPI pattern reveals a signature characteristic of the TCFM, distinct from the conventional single-component prediction, supporting the validity of the electron fractionalization in the cuprates. The integrated analysis also solves the puzzles of ARPES and QPI data that are seemingly inconsistent with each other. The overall success of the TCFM offers a comprehensive understanding of the electronic structure of the cuprates, in particular, the unoccupied side of the spectra, of which momentum-resolved structure has long been unexplored experimentally. We further predict that a characteristic QPI pattern should appear in the unoccupied high-energy part if the fractionalization is at work. We propose that integrated-spectroscopy analyses offer a promising way to explore challenging issues of strongly correlated electron systems.

Sakai, Shiro [Sophia University; RIKEN Center for ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Circularity Futures Workshop Series: Summary Report

The aim of this report is to synthesize key feedback received from the three-part Circularity Futures workshop series held in Spring 2024. The workshop series was conducted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) on behalf of U.S. Department of Energy, Office Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), and was broken into three workshops: Workshop 1 - Circularity Analysis Needs and Priorities; Workshop 2 - Circularity Metrics and Indicators; and Workshop 3 - Circularity Data. Together, the workshops focused on identifying the existing priorities and gaps in the circularity modeling space, understanding different stakeholders' use and interpretation of circularity metrics and indicators, identifying common data gaps and data quality challenges, and assessing the robustness of available solutions. The workshop series brought a diverse group of stakeholders - including representatives from U.S. government offices, national labs, nonprofit organizations, industry, and academia - to collect first-hand feedback on needs, priorities, challenges and opportunities in the circularity modeling and analysis space. The workshop discussions highlighted numerous common needs, priorities and challenges among the interviewed groups. Several topics were frequently discussed, including: 1) Circularity as a pathway for sustainable economic growth: While circularity is generally defined in terms of resource conservation and reducing wasteful disposal of materials, participants agreed that circular strategies should serve broader economic, environmental, and social goals. It is therefore crucial for circularity analysis to look beyond waste reduction and instead evaluate a variety of impact metrics such as cost savings, job creation, air quality, and pollutant emissions. Mutli-criteria decision-making frameworks may be useful for making sense of disparate metrics and evaluating tradeoffs between impact categories.; 2) Economic and social factors are not well understood: Underdevelopment of existing end-of-life (EOL) management infrastructure, inconsistent standardization codes and policy space in reusing recycled content, and suboptimal collection and sorting strategies collectively contribute to uncertainty about the economic potential of circular pathways. The latter observation is consistent among all technologies but more emphasized for renewable energy systems. Social impacts of circularity practices are less understood and less researched than other sustainability aspects.; 3) Inconsistent methods for assessing emerging technologies: LCA and TEA results vary widely depending on the assumptions made with regards to market adoption of new technologies. Emerging technologies suffer limited availability of data needed to conduct a robust circularity analysis. Yet, understanding projected impacts of proposed nascent technology is a key need for different stakeholder groups.; and 4) Lack of temporally and geospatially explicit data: There is a need for open data that represents variations in circularity technologies over time and location. The lack thereof leads to aggregated and potentially misrepresented results in circularity analysis. Sensitivity analyses should be included to verify whether options perceived as more sustainable align with real-world practices.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Commercial, industrial, and institutional discount rate estimation for efficiency standards analysis: Sector-level data 1998–2023

Underlying each of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) federal appliance and equipment energy conservation standards are a set of complex analyses of the projected costs and benefits of regulation. Any new or amended standard must be designed to achieve significant additional energy conservation, provided that it is technologically feasible and economically justified (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A)). DOE determines economic justification based on whether the benefits exceed the burdens, considering a variety of factors, including the economic impact of the standard on consumers of the product and the savings in lifetime operating cost compared to any increase in price or maintenance expenses (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)). As part of this determination, DOE conducts a life-cycle cost (LCC) analysis, which models the combined impact of appliance first cost and operating cost changes on a representative commercial building sample to identify the fraction of customers achieving LCC savings or incurring net cost at the considered efficiency levels. Thus, the commercial discount rate value(s) used to calculate the present value of energy cost savings within the LCC model implicitly plays a role in estimating the economic impact of potential standard levels. This report provides an in-depth discussion of the commercial discount rate estimation process relying on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to estimate a business’ cost of equity, and by adding a risk adjustment factor to the risk-free rate associated with long-term U.S. Treasury bonds to estimate their cost of debt. It is an update to previous reports on estimating commercial discount rates from firm-level and sector-level financial data (e.g., Fujita, 2021, 2016). Major topics covered in this report include the following: • Discount rate estimation methods and rationale • Data sources used and data limitations • Discount rate distributions for use in standards analysis • Discount rate estimation methods and distributions specific to the small business subgroup analysis.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Molecular and Epidemiological Investigation of Fluconazole-resistant Candida parapsilosis —Georgia, United States, 2021

Abstract Background Reports of fluconazole-resistant Candida parapsilosis bloodstream infections are increasing. We describe a cluster of fluconazole-resistant C parapsilosis bloodstream infections identified in 2021 on routine surveillance by the Georgia Emerging Infections Program in conjunction with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Methods Whole-genome sequencing was used to analyze C parapsilosis bloodstream infections isolates. Epidemiological data were obtained from medical records. A social network analysis was conducted using Georgia Hospital Discharge Data. Results Twenty fluconazole-resistant isolates were identified in 2021, representing the largest proportion (34%) of fluconazole-resistant C parapsilosis bloodstream infections identified in Georgia since surveillance began in 2008. All resistant isolates were closely genetically related and contained the Y132F mutation in the ERG11 gene. Patients with fluconazole-resistant isolates were more likely to have resided at long-term acute care hospitals compared with patients with susceptible isolates (P = .01). There was a trend toward increased mechanical ventilation and prior azole use in patients with fluconazole-resistant isolates. Social network analysis revealed that patients with fluconazole-resistant isolates interfaced with a distinct set of healthcare facilities centered around 2 long-term acute care hospitals compared with patients with susceptible isolates. Conclusions Whole-genome sequencing results showing that fluconazole-resistant C parapsilosis isolates from Georgia surveillance demonstrated low genetic diversity compared with susceptible isolates and their association with a facility network centered around 2 long-term acute care hospitals suggests clonal spread of fluconazole-resistant C parapsilosis. Further studies are needed to better understand the sudden emergence and transmission of fluconazole-resistant C parapsilosis.

Misas, Elizabeth (ORCID:0000000162437716)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analysis as a Key Guiding Tool for Waste Carbon Utilization

Over a billion metric tons of waste and biomass are projected to be available in a future mature market in the United States. These resources represent an opportunity to decouple chemical and polymer production from conventional fossil fuel feedstocks, but such a broad solution space can also make for challenging decision-making. This talk will provide researchers with an introduction to key analysis techniques such as techno-economic analysis, life cycle assessment, and material flow analysis: how they are conducted and how they can be used to benchmark the costs, environmental impacts, and circularity of new innovations as well as to identify opportunities for prioritization and optimization. Using a series of examples related to plastic recycling and chemical manufacturing, we will explore how analysis can guide where and how to leverage waste carbon in supply chains towards a future circular economy.

chemical↗