Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “scenario modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2011

Potential Effects of Health Care Policy Decisions on Physician Availability

Many regions in America are experiencing downward trends in the number of practicing physicians and the number of available physician hours, resulting in a worrisome decrease in the availability of health care services. Recent changes in American health care legislation may induce a rapid change in the demand for health care services, which in turn will result in a new supply-demand equilibrium . In this paper we develop a system dynamics model linking physician availability to health care demand and profitability. We use this model to explore scenarios based on different initial conditions and describe possible outcomes for a range of different policy decisions.

Garcia, Christopher↗
NASA NTRS2005

Gas Concentration Mapping of Arenal Volcano Using AVEMS

The Airborne Volcanic Emissions Mass Spectrometer (AVEMS) System developed by NASA-Kennedy Space Center and deployed in collaboration with the National Center for Advanced Technology (CENAT) and the University of Costa Rica was used for mapping the volcanic plume of Arenal Volcano, the most active volcano in Costa Rica. The measurements were conducted as part of the second CARTA (Costa Rica Airborne Research and Technology Application) mission conducted in March 2005. The CARTA 2005 mission, involving multiple sensors and agencies, consisted of three different planes collecting data over all of Costa Rica. The WB-57F from NASA collected ground data with a digital camera, an analog photogrametric camera (RC-30), a multispectral scanner (MASTER) and a hyperspectral sensor (HYMAP). The second aircraft, a King Air 200 from DoE, mounted with a LIDAR based instrument, targeted topography mapping and forest density measurements. A smaller third aircraft, a Navajo from Costa Rica, integrated with the AVEMS instrument and designed for real-time measurements of air pollutants from both natural and anthropogenic sources, was flown over the volcanoes. The improved AVEMS system is designed for deployment via aircraft, car or hand-transport. The 85 pound system employs a 200 Da quadrupole mass analyzer, has a volume of 92,000 cubic cm, requires 350 W of power at steady state, can operate up to an altitude of 41,000 feet above sea level (-65 C; 50 torr). The system uses on-board gas bottles on-site calibration and is capable of monitoring and quantifying up to 16 gases simultaneously. The in-situ gas data in this work, consisting of helium, carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide and acetone, was acquired in conjunction of GPS data which was plotted with the ground imagery, topography and remote sensing data collected by the other instruments, allowing the 3 dimensional visualization of the volcanic plume at Arenal Volcano. The modeling of possible scenarios of Arenal s activity and its direct impact on the surrounding populated areas in now possible with the combined set of data, linking in-situ data with remote sensing data. The study also helps in the understanding of pyroclastic flow behavior in case of a major eruption.

Diaz, J. Andres↗
NASA NTRS2008

Volcanic Gas Emissions Mapping Using a Mass Spectrometer System

The visualization of hazardous gaseous emissions at volcanoes using in-situ mass spectrometry (MS) is a key step towards a better comprehension of the geophysical phenomena surrounding eruptive activity. In-Situ gas data consisting of helium, carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, and other gas species, were acquired with an MS system. MS and global position system (GPS) data were plotted on ground imagery, topography, and remote sensing data collected by a host of instruments during the second Costa Rica Airborne Research and Technology Applications (CARTA) mission This combination of gas and imaging data allowed 3-dimensional (3-D) visualization of the volcanic plume end the mapping of gas concentration at several volcanic structures and urban areas This combined set of data has demonstrated a better tool to assess hazardous conditions by visualizing and modeling of possible scenarios of volcanic activity. The MS system is used for in-situ measurement of three-dimensional gas concentrations at different volcanic locations with three different transportation platforms, aircraft, auto, and hand carried. The demonstration for urban contamination mapping is also presented as another possible use for the MS system.

Griffin, Timothy P.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Integrated Medical Model Project - Overview and Summary of Historical Application

Introduction: The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project represents one aspect of NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) to quantitatively assess medical risks to astronauts for existing operational missions as well as missions associated with future exploration and commercial space flight ventures. The IMM takes a probabilistic approach to assessing the likelihood and specific outcomes of one hundred medical conditions within the envelope of accepted space flight standards of care over a selectable range of mission capabilities. A specially developed Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) maintains evidence-based, organizational knowledge across a variety of data sources. Since becoming operational in 2011, version 3.0 of the IMM, the supporting iMED, and the expertise of the IMM project team have contributed to a wide range of decision and informational processes for the space medical and human research community. This presentation provides an overview of the IMM conceptual architecture and range of application through examples of actual space flight community questions posed to the IMM project. Methods: Figure 1 [see document] illustrates the IMM modeling system and scenario process. As illustrated, the IMM computational architecture is based on Probabilistic Risk Assessment techniques. Nineteen assumptions and limitations define the IMM application domain. Scenario definitions include crew medical attributes and mission specific details. The IMM forecasts probabilities of loss of crew life (LOCL), evacuation (EVAC), quality time lost during the mission, number of medical resources utilized and the number and type of medical events by combining scenario information with in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical information stored in the iMED. In addition, the metrics provide the integrated information necessary to estimate optimized in-flight medical kit contents under constraints of mass and volume or acceptable level of mission risk. Results and Conclusions: Historically, IMM simulations support Science and Technology planning, Exploration mission planning, and ISS program operations by supplying simulation support, iMED data information, and subject matter expertise to Crew Health and Safety and the HRP. Upcoming release of IMM version 4.0 seeks to provide enhanced functionality to increase the quality of risk decisions made using the IMM through a more accurate representation of the real world system.

Myers, J.↗
NASA NTRS2015

The Role of Cooling in Pahohoe Emplacement on Planetary Surfaces.

Abundant evidence is emerging that many lavas on Mars were emplaced as slow-moving pahoehoe flows. Models for such scenarios contrast sharply with those for steep-sloped applications where gravity is the dominant force. The mode of flow emplacement on low slopes is characterized by toe formation and inflation. In the latter phase of pahoehoe flow emplacement, stagnation, inflation, and toe formation are most closely tied to the final topography, dimensions, and morphologic features. This mode of emplacement is particularly relevant to the low slopes of planetary surfaces such as the plains of Mars, Io and the Moon.

Pahoehoe Lava Flows; Pressure Dependent Simulation↗
NASA NTRS2015

Evaluating Coastal Landscape Response to Sea-Level Rise in the Northeastern United States - Approach and Methods

The U.S. Geological Survey is examining effects of future sea-level rise on the coastal landscape from Maine to Virginia by producing spatially explicit, probabilistic predictions using sea-level projections, vertical land movement rates (due to isostacy), elevation data, and land-cover data. Sea-level-rise scenarios used as model inputs are generated by using multiple sources of information, including Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models following representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. A Bayesian network is used to develop a predictive coastal response model that integrates the sea-level, elevation, and land-cover data with assigned probabilities that account for interactions with coastal geomorphology as well as the corresponding ecological and societal systems it supports. The effects of sea-level rise are presented as (1) level of landscape submergence and (2) coastal response type characterized as either static (that is, inundation) or dynamic (that is, landform or landscape change). Results are produced at a spatial scale of 30 meters for four decades (the 2020s, 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). The probabilistic predictions can be applied to landscape management decisions based on sea-level-rise effects as well as on assessments of the prediction uncertainty and need for improved data or fundamental understanding. This report describes the methods used to produce predictions, including information on input datasets; the modeling approach; model outputs; data-quality-control procedures; and information on how to access the data and metadata online.

terrain↗
NASA NTRS2016

Flight Test 4 Preliminary Results: NASA Ames SSI

Realization of the expected proliferation of Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) operations in the National Airspace System (NAS) depends on the development and validation of performance standards for UAS Detect and Avoid (DAA) Systems. The RTCA Special Committee 228 is charged with leading the development of draft Minimum Operational Performance Standards (MOPS) for UAS DAA Systems. NASA, as a participating member of RTCA SC-228 is committed to supporting the development and validation of draft requirements as well as the safety substantiation and end-to-end assessment of DAA system performance. The Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Integration into the National Airspace System (NAS) Project conducted flight test program, referred to as Flight Test 4, at Armstrong Flight Research Center from April -June 2016. Part of the test flights were dedicated to the NASA Ames-developed Detect and Avoid (DAA) System referred to as JADEM (Java Architecture for DAA Extensibility and Modeling). The encounter scenarios, which involved NASA's Ikhana UAS and a manned intruder aircraft, were designed to collect data on DAA system performance in real-world conditions and uncertainties with four different surveillance sensor systems. Flight test 4 has four objectives: (1) validate DAA requirements in stressing cases that drive MOPS requirements, including: high-speed cooperative intruder, low-speed non-cooperative intruder, high vertical closure rate encounter, and Mode CS-only intruder (i.e. without ADS-B), (2) validate TCASDAA alerting and guidance interoperability concept in the presence of realistic sensor, tracking and navigational errors and in multiple-intruder encounters against both cooperative and non-cooperative intruders, (3) validate Well Clear Recovery guidance in the presence of realistic sensor, tracking and navigational errors, and (4) validate DAA alerting and guidance requirements in the presence of realistic sensor, tracking and navigational errors. The results will be presented at RTCA Special Committee 228 in support of final verification and validation of the DAA MOPS.

Detect-And-Avoid (DAA)↗
NASA NTRS2018

Modeling the Risk of U.S. Offshore Oil & Gas Exploration-Well Drilling, Commercial Nuclear Plants, and Human Spaceflight

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has been applied in different industries for many years. Each industry and technology area presents varying challenges and priorities, and the risk models therefore need to be somewhat different. This paper compares aspects of risk modeling of offshore drilling, nuclear plant operation, and human spaceflight. Risk models in all three technology areas have certain high-level similarities: (1) they employ redundancy and diversity in their means to prevent or mitigate risk, including a mix of active and passive systems designed to respond to off-normal evolutions; (2) they are affected by human reliability; (3) their models require consideration of coupling between scenario structure and scenario phenomenology. But in examining the models in more detail, one sees important differences in methodology and emphasis. For purposes of comparison, this paper discusses aspects of a risk model of an offshore drilling operation in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, focusing on where such a development differs in important ways from models of commercial U.S. nuclear plants and models developed for human spaceflight.

Boyer, Roger L.↗
NASA NTRS1996

(abstract) Ice Clipper -- A Low-Cost Europa Sample Return Mission

Presented is a discussion of a new idea for a Europa sample return mission that is currently being developed at JPL as a Discovery proposal to NASA. Ejecta samples will be taken in a flyby of Europa, captured in aerogel and returned via a near free-return trajectory to direct reentry and parachute landing on Earth. Ejecta particles of the Europa surface will be created by striking the surface with a 10 kg impactor prior to a 50 km flyby. A mass spectrometer will analyze ejecta during the flyby as well as the atmosphere of Europa. Science, navigation requirements, ejecta modeling, and mission scenario will be discussed.

Europa↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probing the Properties of Superheavy Dark Matter Annihilating or Decaying into Neutrinos With Ultra-High Energy Neutrino Experiments

The evidence for dark matter particles,x, is compelling based on Galactic to cosmological scale observations. Thus far, the promising weakly interacting massive particle scenario have eluded detection, motivating alternative models of dark matter. We consider scenarios involving super-heavy dark matter (SHDM) that potentially can decay or annihilate to neutrinos and antineutrinos. In the mass range m(sub x) =10(exp 7) −10(exp 15) GeV, we evaluate the sensitivities of future observatories PO-EMMA and GRAND for indirect dark matter detection via the measurement of neutrino-induced extensive air showers (EAS), compute the Auger and ANITA limits using their last up-to-date sensitivities, and compare them with IceCube limits. We also show that the uncertainties related to the dark matter distribution in the Galactic halo have a large impact on the neutrino flux. We show that a ground-based radio detector such as GRAND can achieve high sensitivities due to its large effective area and high duty cycle. Space-based Cherenkov detectors such as POEMMA that measure the EAS optical Cherenkov signal have the advantage of full-sky coverage and rapid slewing, enabling an optimized SHDM observation strategy focusing on the Galactic Center. We show that increasing the field of view of the Cherenkov detectors can significantly enhance the sensitivity. Moreover, POEMMA’s fluorescence observation mode that measures EAS above20EeV will achieve state-of-the-art sensitivity to SHDM properties at the highest mass scales.

Claire Guepin↗
NASA NTRS2021

A Dusty Veil Shading Betelgeuse During Its Great Dimming

Red supergiants are the most common final evolutionary stage of stars that have initial masses between 8 and 35 times that of the Sun. During this stage, which lasts roughly 100,000 years, red supergiants experience substantial mass loss. However, the mechanism for this mass loss is unknown. Mass loss may affect the evolutionary path, collapse and future supernova light curve of a red supergiant, and its ultimate fate as either a neutron star or a black hole. From November 2019 to March 2020, Betelgeuse—the second-closest red supergiant to Earth (roughly 220 parsecs, or 724 light years, away)—experienced a historic dimming of its visible brightness. Usually having an apparent magnitude between 0.1 and 1.0, its visual brightness decreased to 1.614 ± 0.008 magnitudes around 7–13 February 2020—an event referred to as Betelgeuse’s Great Dimming. Here we report high-angular-resolution observations showing that the southern hemisphere of Betelgeuse was ten times darker than usual in the visible spectrum during its Great Dimming. Observations and modelling support a scenario in which a dust clump formed recently in the vicinity of the star, owing to a local temperature decrease in a cool patch that appeared on the photosphere. The directly imaged brightness variations of Betelgeuse evolved on a timescale of weeks. Our findings suggest that a component of mass loss from red supergiants is inhomogeneous, linked to a very contrasted and rapidly changing photosphere.

Time-domain astronomy↗
NASA NTRS2022

Milwaukee Urban Development: Assessing Climate Vulnerability through the InVEST Model on Urban Cooling in Milwaukee Using NASA Earth Observations

Milwaukee’s neighborhoods experience increased social, health, and ecological stress from the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect due to changing land cover and climate. Extreme urban heat disproportionately affects Black and Latine communities due to systematic disinvestment in infrastructure and lack of resources to cope with heat. Our partner, Groundwork Milwaukee, supports Environmental Justice organizing around urban heat in historically redlined neighborhoods. This study explores heat mitigation in Metcalfe Park, one such neighborhood that is a focus area for our partner, as well as across the city and county of Milwaukee. Our team utilized the Natural Capital Project’s Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Model for urban cooling to model heat mitigation scenarios for Milwaukee in support of Groundwork’s climate resilience and heat mitigation work. The data inputs used in our analysis were Land Use Land Cover (LULC), evapotranspiration, and surface temperature derived from NASA Earth observations, as well as a biophysical table containing land cover class attributes. We developed a heat vulnerability index from American Community Survey datasets and satellite imagery to identify areas in most need of heat mitigation intervention. We found that central and northwest city areas, home to a majority of Milwaukee’s Black and Latine population, have low heat mitigation and high vulnerability to heat impacts compared to the rest of the county. We also found that tree canopy increases across scales are effective in promoting heat mitigation. Our results and end products will bolster the efforts of our partners to make decisions on heat mitigation strategies, build community resilience, and reverse legacies of environmental racism in the face of extreme heat and climate change.

urban heat island↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Deploying a Self-Supervised Learning Based Model to Search Events Across Space and Time

Motivation - Scientific Study of natural events, phenomena, or disasters require examples which span across time and space. - Machine Learning adaptation is on the rise, but there’s a lack of labeled training datasets that could be used to train or validate the models. - Best case scenario: - There’s an event database that tracks events available through time and space. - Provides all data associated with the events. - Real life scenario: - Some events are better tracked than others. - Scientists need to spend significant time identifying and gathering examples of events from different sources.

Iksha Gurung↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Machine learning based noise reduction for satellite products: application to solar-induced fluorescence retrievals using simulated and real data

In the past two decades, global satellite measurements of terrestrial chlorophyll solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) have been used widely for a number of different applications related to physiology, phenology, and productivity of plants. However, SIF retrievals are inherently noisy due to the relatively small SIF spectral signature in comparison with observational noise. In this work, we examine how a spectral-based approach that employs principal component analysis along with a relatively shallow artificial neural network can be used to reduce noise and other artifacts in satellite level 2 (L2) products. We first apply the approach in a controlled environment in which radiance spectra are simulated with a full atmospheric and surface radiative transfer model for different scenarios including various SIF values that are known. Various levels of noise can be added to the simulated spectra. Resulting noisy and noise-reduced SIF retrievals are compared with the true values to assess performance. We then apply the noise reduction approach to real SIF derived from instruments flying on meteorological satellites. The results are evaluated by comparing SIF retrievals from different platforms with each other and with other independent data sets, showing enhanced capability to capture seasonal and interannual variability in SIF.

Chlorophyll fluorescence↗
NASA NTRS2023

Evaluation of the Tau-Omega Model over a Dense Corn Canopy at P- and L-band

As an emerging technique, P-band (0.3-1GHz) may improve soil moisture remote sensing compared to L-band (1.4 GHz) SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) and SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) missions, because of its greater moisture retrieval depth resulting from its longer wavelength. Consequently, a number of tower-based experiments were undertaken in Victoria, Australia, to understand and quantify potential improvements. The study reported here has extended the evaluation of the tau-omega model to a scenario with a dense corn canopy whose vegetation water content reached ~20 kg/m 2 , and compared the soil moisture retrieval performance at P- and L-band. Based on the locally calibrated parameters, the results from both the SCA (Single Channel Algorithm) and DCA (Dual Channel Algorithm) approaches presented a clear reduction in vegetation impact at P-band compared to L-band. While the root-mean-square error (RMSE) for P-band did not achieve the 0.04-m 3 /m 3 target accuracy of SMOS and SMAP, i.e., 0.054 m 3 /m 3 for the SCA and 0.074 m 3 /m 3 for the DCA, this performance can be regarded as acceptable considering the extremely high vegetation water content. In comparison, the RMSEs at L-band were larger than 0.1 m 3 /m 3 for both the SCA and the DCA approaches. Additionally, DCA performed better in correlation coefficient and unbiased RMSE, while SCA performed better in RMSE at P-band due to the larger bias when using DCA. Moreover, the calibrated vegetation parameters at P-band were found to apply to broader conditions than those at L-band, likely due to the reduced vegetation impact.

P-band↗
NASA NTRS1989

Predictive performance models and multiple task performance

Five models that predict how performance of multiple tasks will interact in complex task scenarios are discussed. The models are shown in terms of the assumptions they make about human operator divided attention. The different assumptions about attention are then empirically validated in a multitask helicopter flight simulation. It is concluded from this simulation that the most important assumption relates to the coding of demand level of different component tasks.

Wickens, Christopher D.↗
NASA NTRS2022

A Model-Based Approach for Europa Lander Mission Concept Exploration

This study investigates the usage of a system model as a means to capture concept formulation for a potentialmission. Efforts are underway at JPL to explore thearchitectural and system concepts for a lander on Europa.Executing a mission on the surface of Europa poses uniquechallenges that will require the lander to operate with onboardautonomy that is more sophisticated than systems previouslyoperated by JPL. Current tasks to explore surface missionconcepts intend to identify concepts that enable a high degree ofonboard autonomy as well as identify the issues and technicallimitations that restrict autonomy. The Europa lander missionconcept team is developing a system model to support thisexploration.The results of this study highlight how executable systemmodeling and the associated engineering environment may beapplied to pre-project conceptual exploration. The applicationof system modeling has resulted in a central system model thatprecisely describes the concepts formulated by the EuropaLander Mission Concept Team. Documentation in the form ofdiagrams and narrative has been directly generated from thesystem model and accessible by team members in a webapplication. The executability of the system model enablesvarious analyses such as simulation of interactions betweencomponents and evaluating system behavior againstrequirements. Execution of the system model has produced statetimelines, plots of system variables, and simulation traces basedon input scenarios. The executable system model enables therapid and repeatable production of these artifacts.

Reeves, Glenn↗
NASA NTRS2015

Exploring NASA Human Spaceflight and Pioneering Scenarios

The life cycle cost analysis of space exploration scenarios is explored via a merger of (1) scenario planning, separating context and (2) modeling and analysis of specific content. Numerous scenarios are presented, leading to cross-cutting recommendations addressing life cycle costs, productivity, and approaches applicable to any scenarios. Approaches address technical and non-technical factors.

cost modeling estimation↗