SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “scenario reduction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 217 records · Page 12

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2022

Global Food Insecurity and Famine From Reduced Crop, Marine Fishery and Livestock Production Due to Climate Disruption From Nuclear War Soot Injection

Atmospheric soot loadings from nuclear weapon detonation would cause disruptions to the Earth’s climate, limiting terrestrial and aquatic food production. Here, we use climate, crop and fishery models to estimate the impacts arising from six scenarios of stratospheric soot injection, predicting the total food calories available in each nation post-war after stored food is consumed. In quantifying impacts away from target areas, we demonstrate that soot injections larger than 5 Tg would lead to mass food shortages, and livestock and aquatic food production would be unable to compensate for reduced crop output, in almost all countries. Adaptation measures such as food waste reduction would have limited impact on increasing available calories. We estimate more than 2 billion people could die from nuclear war between India and Pakistan, and more than 5 billion could die from a war between the United States and Russia—underlining the importance of global cooperation in preventing nuclear war.

Atmospheric soot↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Extravehicular Activity on the Lunar Surface: Mapping Mitigation Risk Consequence for Crew Needing Assistance or Rescue

Extravehicular activity (EVA) on the lunar surface presents unique risks to crew with possibility for injury. Without appropriate assistance or rescue capability, inability to nominally ambulate and return to a lander, especially during early Artemis missions, could have catastrophic consequences. Mapping likelihood and consequence safety risk associated with identified injury scenarios establishes a baseline from which to assess potential mitigation solutions to ensure crew health and safety. Causes leading to the need for incapacitated crew rescue (ICR) during EVA on the lunar surface were previously identified and classified using an ICR/Acute Injury scenario spectrum. Severe scenarios are those when the affected astronaut requires either partial or full continuous assistance from the rescuer. Evaluation of these continual reliance conditions included calculating event probabilities (likelihoods) associated with an early Artemis mission and mapping them to established Exploration System Directorate (ESD) probability thresholds; safety consequences were analyzed and correlated to defined ESD personnel safety categories. These resulting likelihood and consequence values served as a baseline for assessing risk reduction of three mitigation capabilities: crew assistance (rescuer crew) only, walking assist devices, and a wheeled transport device. Of the twenty-five continual reliance conditions, ten were evaluated as “catastrophic” (Level 5, loss of life) during EVA on the lunar surface with probabilities ranging from moderate to very low during an early Artemis mission. Crew assistance only and walking assist devices showed similar potential for risk reduction, with four of the ten causes decreasing to Level 4. A wheeled transport device further increased risk reduction with six of the ten conditions decreasing to Level 4. Given the catastrophic consequence of several identified conditions, assessments should be performed to determine the feasibility of mitigation capabilities. It is currently unknown whether a rescuer astronaut could effectively provide continuous assistance to enable both crew to return safely to the lander from the standpoint of both suit geometry and human performance. Although resulting in an increase in resources, providing a wheeled transport provides the highest risk reduction potential, and walking assist devices may have prevention as well as mitigation benefits.

lunar surface↗

NASA NTRS2012

Global Warming Induced Changes in Rainfall Characteristics in IPCC AR5 Models

Changes in rainfall characteristic induced by global warming are examined from outputs of IPCC AR5 models. Different scenarios of climate warming including a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), a medium mitigation scenario (RCP 4.5), and 1% per year CO2 increase are compared to 20th century simulations (historical). Results show that even though the spatial distribution of monthly rainfall anomalies vary greatly among models, the ensemble mean from a sizable sample (about 10) of AR5 models show a robust signal attributable to GHG warming featuring a shift in the global rainfall probability distribution function (PDF) with significant increase (>100%) in very heavy rain, reduction (10-20% ) in moderate rain and increase in light to very light rains. Changes in extreme rainfall as a function of seasons and latitudes are also examined, and are similar to the non-seasonal stratified data, but with more specific spatial dependence. These results are consistent from TRMM and GPCP rainfall observations suggesting that extreme rainfall events are occurring more frequently with wet areas getting wetter and dry-area-getting drier in a GHG induced warmer climate.

Lau, William K. M.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Case Study of Meteoroid Fluence on a Mars Sample Return Mission

This paper presents results from an analysis to assess the fluence of meteoroids on the Mars Sample Return Campaign Micrometeoroid Protection System (MMPS) and probability of damage to the Earth Entry System Thermal Protection System (TPS). Results are presented for the mission Outbound trajectory from Earth to Mars. The MEM3 meteoroid environment model was used for the assessment. Results are presented showing the reduction in fluence on cube faces and on the MMPS that can be achieved by selection of an anti-velocity orientation of the MMPS. A methodology is presented that determines the cumulative fluence on the MMPS using the MEM3 meteoroid fluxes and the spacecraft attitude profile over the trajectory. Resulting distributions of fluence over impact velocity, angle, and mass are presented. The fluence results are used to establish velocity-angle scenarios for hydrocode simulation and to assess net damage fluence to the TPS. Example tables containing Smooth Particle Hydrodynamics Code (SPHC) simulation scenarios as well as hypothetical hydrocode simulation scenarios for illustration purposes are presented. The tables present the resulting net damaging fluence to the TPS for each scenario and the total across the scenarios. Additionally, examples of CTH hydrocode simulation are included, demonstrating their use for determining critical impactor across the impactor parameter space, and damage of impactors that penetrate the MMPS.

Micrometeoroid↗

NASA NTRS2011

Advanced Life Support Technologies and Scenarios

As NASA looks beyond the International Space Station toward long-duration, deep space missions away from Earth, the current practice of supplying consumables and spares will not be practical nor affordable. New approaches are sought for life support and habitation systems that will reduce dependency on Earth and increase mission sustainability. To reduce launch mass, further closure of Environmental Control and Life Support Systems (ECLSS) beyond the current capability of the ISS will be required. Areas of particular interest include achieving higher degrees of recycling within Atmosphere Revitalization, Water Recovery and Waste Management Systems. NASA is currently investigating advanced carbon dioxide reduction processes that surpass the level of oxygen recovery available from the Sabatier Carbon Dioxide Reduction Assembly (CRA) on the ISS. Improving the efficiency of the recovery of water from spacecraft solid and liquid wastes is possible through use of emerging technologies such as the heat melt compactor and brine dewatering systems. Another significant consumable is that of food. Food production systems based on higher plants may not only contribute significantly to the diet, but also contribute to atmosphere revitalization, water purification and waste utilization. Bioreactors may be potentially utilized for wastewater and solid waste management. The level at which bioregenerative technologies are utilized will depend on their comparative requirements for spacecraft resources including mass, power, volume, heat rejection, crew time and reliability. Planetary protection requirements will need to be considered for missions to other solar system bodies.

Barta, Daniel J.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Uncertainties in estimates of the risks of late effects from space radiation

Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Using the linear-additivity model for radiation risks, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain an estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including a deep space outpost and Mars missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, e.g., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well-defined confidence limits. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2023

High Tide or Riptide on the Cosmic Shoreline? A Water-Rich Atmosphere or Stellar Contamination for the Warm Super-Earth GJ 486b from JWST Observations

Planets orbiting M-dwarf stars are prime targets in the search for rocky exoplanet atmospheres. The small size of M dwarfs renders their planets exceptional targets for transmission spectroscopy, facilitating atmospheric characterization. However, it remains unknown whether their host stars’ highly variable extreme-UV radiation environments allow atmospheres to persist. With JWST, we have begun to determine whether or not the most favorable rocky worlds orbiting M dwarfs have detectable atmospheres. Here, we present a 2.8—5.2 µm JWST NIRSpec/G395H transmission spectrum of the warm (700 K, 40.3× Earth’s insolation) super-Earth GJ 486b (1.3 R⊕ and 3.0 M⊕). The measured spectrum from our two transits of GJ 486b deviates from a flat line at 2.2 − 3.3σ, based on three independent reductions. Through a combination of forward and retrieval models, we determine that GJ 486b either has a water-rich atmosphere (with the most stringent constraint on the retrieved water abundance of H2O > 10% to 2σ) or the transmission spectrum is contaminated by water present in cool unocculted starspots. We also find that the measured stellar spectrum is best fit by a stellar model with cool starspots and hot faculae. While both retrieval scenarios provide equal quality fits (χ2ν = 1.0) to our NIRSpec/G395H observations, shorter wavelength observations can break this degeneracy and reveal if GJ 486b sustains a water-rich atmosphere.

JWST↗

NASA NTRS1991

Near-term lunar nuclear thermal rocket engine options

The Nuclear Thermal Rocket (NTR) is an attractive candidate propulsion system option for manned planetary missions. Its high performance capability for such missions translates into a substantial reduction in low-earth-orbit (LEO) required mass and trip times with increased operational flexibility. This study examined NTR engine options that could support near-term lunar mission operations. Expander and gas generator cycle, solid-core NERVA derivative reactor-based NTR engines were investigated. Weight, size, operational characteristics, and design features for representative NTR engine concepts are presented. The impact of using these NTR engines for a typical lunar mission scenario is also examined.

Pelaccio, Dennis G.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Expanding Regional Airport Usage to Accommodate Increased Air Traffic Demand

Small regional airports present an underutilized source of capacity in the national air transportation system. This study sought to determine whether a 50 percent increase in national operations could be achieved by limiting demand growth at large hub airports and instead growing traffic levels at the surrounding regional airports. This demand scenario for future air traffic in the United States was generated and used as input to a 24-hour simulation of the national airspace system. Results of the demand generation process and metrics predicting the simulation results are presented, in addition to the actual simulation results. The demand generation process showed that sufficient runway capacity exists at regional airports to offload a significant portion of traffic from hub airports. Predictive metrics forecast a large reduction of delays at most major airports when demand is shifted. The simulation results then show that offloading hub traffic can significantly reduce nationwide delays.

Russell, Carl R.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Potential Lunar In-Situ Resource Utilization Experiments and Mission Scenarios

The extraction and use of resources on the Moon, known as In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU), can potentially reduce the cost and risk of human lunar exploration while also increasing science achieved. By not having to bring all of the shielding and mission consumables from Earth and being able to make products on the Moon, missions may require less mass to accomplish the same objectives, carry more science equipment, go to more sites of exploration, and/or provide options to recover from failures not possible with delivery of spares and consumables from Earth alone. While lunar ISRU has significant potential for mass, cost, and risk reduction for human lunar missions, it has never been demonstrated before in space. To demonstrate that ISRU can meet mission needs and to increase confidence in incorporating ISRU capabilities into mission architectures, terrestrial laboratory and analog field testing along with robotic precursor missions are required. A stepwise approach with international collaboration is recommended. This paper will outline the role of ISRU in future lunar missions, and define the approach and possible experiments to increase confidence in ISRU applications for future human lunar exploration

Sanders, Gerald B.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Global Warming in the 21st Century: An Alternate Scenario

A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as CFCs, CH4 and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, whose positive and negative climate forcings are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change of climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs In the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition-specific longterm global monitoring of aerosol properties.

Hansen, James E.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Uncertainties in Estimates of the Risks of Late Effects from Space Radiation

The health risks faced by astronauts from space radiation include cancer, cataracts, hereditary effects, and non-cancer morbidity and mortality risks related to the diseases of the old age. Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Within the linear-additivity model, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain a Maximum Likelihood estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including ISS, lunar station, deep space outpost, and Mar's missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time, and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative objective's, i.e., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Aerocapture as an Option for Ice Giants Mission

Aerocapture is an atmospheric maneuver where the aerodynamic forces of the vehicle (lift and drag) are used to provide the 𝞓V needed to slow down from the approach hyperbolic trajectory to achieve the desired captured orbit around the target planet. The aeroassist capture provides a large savings in propulsion needed to change the velocity of the vehicle, since aerodynamic forces rather than propulsive systems provide the change in velocity. Aerocapture requires an integrated system level design, including thermal protection systems, actuator systems for aerodynamic modulation, and guidance and control systems that can autonomously command the change in the aeroassist forces. Although aerocapture has been proposed for many situations in the past, including Mars, Venus, Titan, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune orbiters as well as for Earth demonstration missions, it has not been attempted on any missions. However, many studies in the past three decades that have considered aerocapture as a design option have concluded that there are large mass savings that come from using aeroassist forces rather than propulsive forces to put a spacecraft into a captured orbit. The benefits are destination dependent, but some of the largest mass savings occur for the Ice Giants planets. Due to the large hyperbolic velocities of interplanetary trajectories approaching Uranus and Neptune, large amount of propulsion must be used to put a spacecraft in science orbits around these planets. Aerocapture can reduce the propulsion needs by dissipating energy in the sizable atmospheres of Uranus and Neptune. NASA commissioned a detailed study analysis to quantify the benefits, if any, for use at Neptune. The study found that even having to provide a heat shield aerocapture could deliver 40% more payload than an all-propulsive vehicle, and also provides for a 3–4-year reduction in trip time. Mass savings are expected also at Uranus with an aerocapture mission. Additionally, more recent advances in thermal protection systems and guidance and control systems show a path to increase capabilities beyond those results. This paper will discuss the merits of including aerocapture as an option for an Ice Giants mission. The discussion will focus on the cost and mass savings of using aerocapture instead of propulsive burns for Ice Giants orbiter mission scenarios while also detailing a potential concept of operations and entry vehicle design. Finally, the talk will discuss more recent work that shows aerocapture design is possible without the development of any novel entry vehicle. Thus, aerocapture can significantly improve science capabilities for an Ice Giants mission.

Soumyo Dutta↗

NASA NTRS2003

Facesheet Delamination of Composite Sandwich Materials at Cryogenic Temperatures

The next generation of space transportation vehicles will require advances in lightweight structural materials and related design concepts to meet the increased demands on performance. One potential source for significant structural weight reduction is the replacement of traditional metallic cryogenic fuel tanks with new designs for polymeric matrix composite tanks. These new tank designs may take the form of thin-walled sandwich constructed with lightweight core and composite facesheets. Life-time durability requirements imply the materials must safely carry pressure loads, external structural loads, resist leakage and operate over an extremely wide temperature range. Aside from catastrophic events like tank wall penetration, one of the most likely scenarios for failure of a tank wall of sandwich construction is the permeation of cryogenic fluid into the sandwich core and the subsequent delamination of the sandwich facesheet due to the build-up of excessive internal pressure. The research presented in this paper was undertaken to help understand this specific problem of core to facesheet delamination in cryogenic environments and relate this data to basic mechanical properties. The experimental results presented herein provide data on the strain energy release rate (toughness) of the interface between the facesheet and the core of a composite sandwich subjected to simulated internal pressure. A unique test apparatus and associated test methods are described and the results are presented to highlight the effects of cryogenic temperature on the measured material properties.

Gates, Thomas S.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Modelling the Future Hydroclimatology of the Lower Fraser River and its Impacts on the Spawning Migration Survival of Sockeye Salmon

Short episodic high temperature events can be lethal for migrating adult Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.). We downscaled temperatures for the Fraser River, British Columbia to evaluate the impact of climate warming on the frequency of exceeding thermal thresholds associated with salmon migratory success. Alarmingly, a modest 1.0 C increase in average summer water temperature over 100 years (1981-2000 to 2081-2100) tripled the number of days per year exceeding critical salmonid thermal thresholds (i.e. 19.0 C). Refined thresholds for two populations (Gates Creek and Weaver Creek) of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) were defined using physiological constraint models based on aerobic scope. While extreme temperatures leading to complete aerobic collapse remained unlikely under our warming scenario, both populations were increasingly forced to migrate upriver at reduced levels of aerobic performance (e.g. in 80% of future simulations, => 90% of salmon encountered temperatures exceeding population specific thermal optima for maximum aerobic scope; T(sub opt)) = 16.3 C for Gates Creek and T(sub sopt)=14.5 C for Weaver Creek). Assuming recent changes to river entry timing persist, we also predicted dramatic increases in the probability of freshwater mortality for Weaver Creek salmon due to reductions in aerobic, and general physiological, performance (e.g. in 42% of future simulations =>50% of Weaver Creek fish exceeded temperature thresholds associated with 0 - 60% of maximum aerobic scope). Potential for adaptation via directional selection on run-timing was more evident for the Weaver Creek population. Early entry Weaver Creek fish experienced 25% (range: 15 - 31%) more suboptimal temperatures than late entrants, compared with an 8% difference (range: 0 - 17%) between early and late Gates Creek fish. Our results emphasize the need to consider daily temperature variability in association with population-specific differences in behaviour and physiological constraints when forecasting impacts of climate change on migratory survival of aquatic species.

Hague, M. J.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Global Warming in the Twenty-First Century: An Alternative Scenario

A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven mainly by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH4, and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, the positive and negative climate forcings of which are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change in climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs in the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this reduction of non-CO2 GHGs could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition specific long-term global monitoring of aerosol properties.

Hansen, James↗

NASA NTRS2000

Global Warming in the Twenty-First Century: An Alternative Scenario

Hansen, James↗

NASA NTRS1992

Model based estimation of image depth and displacement

Passive depth and displacement map determinations have become an important part of computer vision processing. Applications that make use of this type of information include autonomous navigation, robotic assembly, image sequence compression, structure identification, and 3-D motion estimation. With the reliance of such systems on visual image characteristics, a need to overcome image degradations, such as random image-capture noise, motion, and quantization effects, is clearly necessary. Many depth and displacement estimation algorithms also introduce additional distortions due to the gradient operations performed on the noisy intensity images. These degradations can limit the accuracy and reliability of the displacement or depth information extracted from such sequences. Recognizing the previously stated conditions, a new method to model and estimate a restored depth or displacement field is presented. Once a model has been established, the field can be filtered using currently established multidimensional algorithms. In particular, the reduced order model Kalman filter (ROMKF), which has been shown to be an effective tool in the reduction of image intensity distortions, was applied to the computed displacement fields. Results of the application of this model show significant improvements on the restored field. Previous attempts at restoring the depth or displacement fields assumed homogeneous characteristics which resulted in the smoothing of discontinuities. In these situations, edges were lost. An adaptive model parameter selection method is provided that maintains sharp edge boundaries in the restored field. This has been successfully applied to images representative of robotic scenarios. In order to accommodate image sequences, the standard 2-D ROMKF model is extended into 3-D by the incorporation of a deterministic component based on previously restored fields. The inclusion of past depth and displacement fields allows a means of incorporating the temporal information into the restoration process. A summary on the conditions that indicate which type of filtering should be applied to a field is provided.

Damour, Kevin T.↗