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At least 217 records · Page 12

Central Asia Seismic Hazard Assessment (Casha) "Complete" Catalog of Earthquakes

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments (PSHA) greatly benefit from reliable earthquake catalogs. Central Asia, while rich in seismic monitoring history, reports a fraction of their earthquake data to international data collection centres. Furthermore, since the collapse of Soviet Union until now, monitoring and data collection efforts in Central Asia have not been centralized, making monitoring and reporting uneven and disconnected in this time period. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has undertaken a multi-year effort to systematically work with national seismic monitoring and data centres and seismic networks in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan to compile a unified seismological bulletin for Central Asia. In tandem with this effort, an earthquake catalog that is processed to be PSHA ready was also generated. The processing for this effort included further duplicate identification and removal, magnitude harmonization and catalog completeness analyses. This report describes the “complete” PSHA-ready earthquake catalog, including the completeness intervals that were applied.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Washington Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis Heat, Permeability, and Fracture Model Data

This submission contains raster and vector data for the entire state of Washington, with specific emphasis on the three geothermal play fairway sites: Mount St. Helens seismic zone (MSHSZ), Wind River valley (WRV), and Mount Baker (MB). Data are provided for 3 major geothermal models: heat, permeability, and fluid-filled fractures, and an additional infrastructure model. Both of the permeability and fluid-filled-fracture models are produced at 200 m and at 2 km depths; the heat model is only produced at the 200 m depth. Values are provided for both model favorability and model confidence. A combined model at 200m and 2 km depths is provided for favorability, confidence, and exploration risk. Raster data are provided in GeoTiff format and have a statewide coverage. Cell size is 104.355 ft; file type is unsigned 8-bit integer (0-255); 0 represents no favorability or confidence; 255 represents maximum favorability or confidence. The NAD83(HARN)/Washington South (ftUS) projection is used (EPSG:2927). Vector data are provided in shapefile or comma-delimited text file formats. Geographic coordinates, where provided, are in WGS84. A readme file accompanies each folder and provides an overview and description of the enclosed data. The heat model combines 5 intermediate raster layers (which are included in the download package): temperature gradient wells, young volcanic vents, hot springs, young intrusive volcanic rocks, and geothermometry. The permeability model combines 8 intermediate raster layers: density of mapped faults, 2D dilation tendency of mapped faults, 2D slip tendency of mapped faults, seismicity, 3D dilation tendency, 3D slip tendency, 3D maximum coulomb shear stress, and 3D slip gradients. The fluid-filled fracture model combines up to 4 intermediate rasters: resistivity from magneto-telluric 3D inversions, seismicity, Vp/Vs anomalies from passive seismic tomography, and Vs anomalies from ambient-noise tomography. A statewide infrastructure model is also provided that formalizes land-use constraints and restrictions relevant for geothermal prospecting and development. This model combines 10 intermediate rasters: areas off limits to drilling, existing or proposed geothermal leases, DNR-owned land, land-use restrictions along the Columbia River Gorge, areas inundated by water, availability of potential process water, proximity to existing roads, proximity to transmission lines, distance from urban areas, and snow-related elevation restrictions. Supporting vector data for the development of each raster layer is provided. For details on the areas of interest and modeling process please see the 'WA_State_Play_Fairway_Phase_2_Technical_Report' in the download package.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Structure of the Ecuadorian Upper Plate From a Joint Seismic‐Gravity Inversion

The Ecuadorian portion of the South American subduction zone presents an interesting case study in the structure and complex evolution of an upper plate. There are outstanding questions about its tectonic history, composition, and magmatic processes. While previous studies have employed ambient noise tomography to image the Ecuadorian upper plate, surface wave inversions alone often lack sensitivity at relevant shallow depths. This limitation can be overcome with an independent, complementary data set, such as gravity. We have jointly inverted Rayleigh wave phase velocities and Bouguer gravity anomalies to provide a more detailed seismic velocity model of the Ecuadorian upper plate. Our joint inversion has yielded several key improvements from previous models. First, we observe much shallower slow velocities beneath major basins (the Manabí, Progreso, and Gulf of Guayaquil), better aligning with expected basin structure. Second, we identify a high-velocity block beneath the entire forearc, corresponding to the Piñon Terrane, with velocities suggesting the presence of ultramafic material. Third, we highlight a new narrow swath of slow velocities beneath the Ecuadorian Andes, which closely follows the active volcanoes along the Eastern Cordillera. The extent of these slow velocities coincides with the termination of active arc volcanism and the predicted location of the subducted Carnegie Ridge. The predicted compositions for the mid to lower crust in the region preclude a purely compositional explanation for these velocities, suggesting that some level of partial melt is necessary.

Birkey, Andrew [Univ. of Delaware, Newark, DE (Uni↗

Automatic Seismic Phase Picking Using Deep Learning for the EGS Collab project

Microseismic monitoring plays an important role in many energy-related and environmental industries.The microseismic event catalog and seismic structure of the subsurface are two of the primary outputsof the microseismic monitoring system. Though rough locations of microseismic events can be estimated automatically, obtaining high-resolution microseismic event locations requires a significant amount of human laborespecially on seismic phase picking. Unlike traditional automatic pickers that are usually less precise than human analysts, a fewrecently proposed algorithms based on deepneural networks(DNN)were able to match or surpass human performance for earthquake signals. Due to differences in the spatial scale of the study area, sensor sampling rate, and geometry of the monitoring system, it is not clear whether these deepneural networkmodels can be used to speed up microseismic data processing. In this paper, we adapted the DNN based technique for automatic phase picking of microseismic signals. We usedmicroseismic data recorded at the experiment 1 site of the enhancedgeothermal system (EGS) Collab project anddesigneda workflowthat we call transfer-learning aided double-difference tomography (TADT),thatcombines transfer learning and seismic tomography. We re-train an existing DNN with our data to obtain a newmodel using around 3500 seismogramsand associated manual phase picks. Thistransfer learnedmodel is able to reach human performance but muchfaster than human analysts. The transfer-learning-derived phase pickswereused to improve microseismic event locations and imagethesubsurface. The results are similar to or slightly better than those obtained with manual phase picks.

Chai, Chengping↗

Landslide monitoring using seismic refraction tomography – The importance of incorporating topographic variations

Seismic refraction tomography provides images of the elastic properties of subsurface materials in landslide settings. Seismic velocities are sensitive to changes in moisture content, which is a triggering factor in the initiation of many landslides. However, the application of the method to long-term monitoring of landslides is rarely used, given the challenges in undertaking repeat surveys and in handling and minimizing the errors arising from processing time-lapse surveys. This work presents a simple method and workflow for producing a reliable time-series of inverted seismic velocity models. This method is tested using data acquired during a recent, novel, long-term seismic refraction monitoring campaign at an active landslide in the UK. Potential sources of error include those arising from inaccurate and inconsistent determination of first-arrival times, inaccurate receiver positioning, and selection of inappropriate inversion starting models. At our site, a comparative analysis of variations in seismic velocity to real-world variations in topography over time shows that topographic error alone can account for changes in seismic velocity of greater than ±10% in a significant proportion (23%) of the data acquired. The seismic velocity variations arising from real material property changes at the near-surface of the landslide, linked to other sources of environmental data, are demonstrated to be of a similar magnitude. Over the monitoring period we observe subtle variations in the bulk seismic velocity of the sliding layer that are demonstrably related to variations in moisture content. This highlights the need to incorporate accurate topographic information for each time-step in the monitoring time-series. The goal of the proposed workflow is to minimize the sources of potential errors, and to preserve the changes observed by real variations in the subsurface. Following the workflow produces spatially comparable, time-lapse velocity cross-sections formulated from disparate, discretely-acquired datasets. These practical steps aim to aid the use of the seismic refraction tomography method for the long-term monitoring of landslides prone to hydrological destabilization.

Whiteley, J. S.↗

Towards quantifying the reaction network around the sulfate–methane-transition-zone in the Ulleung Basin, East Sea, with a kinetic modeling approach

We present a kinetic model based upon pore water data collected from eight sites drilled during the second Ulleung Basin gas hydrate drilling expedition (UBGH2) in 2010. Three sites were drilled at locations where acoustic chimneys were identified in seismic data, and the rest were drilled on non-chimney (i.e. background) environments. Our model, coupled a comprehensive compositional and isotopic data set, is used to illustrate the different biogeochemical processes at play in those two environments, in terms of reactions around the sulfate-methane-transition-zone (SMTZ). Organic matter decomposition is an important process for production of methane, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and consumption of sulfate in the non-chimney sites, whereas anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) dominates both carbon and sulfur cycles in the chimney environment. Different sources of methane mediate AOM in the two settings. Internally produced methane through CO₂ reduction (CR) and methanogenesis fuels AOM in the non-chimney sites, whereas AOM is sustained by methane from external sources in the chimney sites. We also simulate the system evolution from non-chimney to chimney conditions by increasing the bottom methane supply to a non-chimney setting. We show that the higher CH₄ flux leads to a higher microbial activity of AOM, and more organic matter decomposition through methanogenesis. A higher methanogenesis rate and a smaller CR contribution relative to AOM in the chimney sites is responsible for the isotopically light DIC and heavy methane in this environment, relative to the non-chimney sites.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Evolution of Induced Fracture Networks Using Machine Learning Correlation Image Analysis

Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) can enrich the Nation’s energy portfolio by increasing the amount of renewable baseload power available to the electrical grid. Microseismic activity, due to fluid resource injection and production, provides critical insight into the processes that occur within EGS subsurface fracture networks. To more precisely characterize these fracture networks, we leverage recent advances in deep neural network (DNN) image analysis techniques. Using seismic spectrogram data collected during a meso scale EGS field experiment as image inputs, we developed a new approach to correlate microseismic events. Our results indicate that our chosen DNN is able to estimate the correlation value between highly correlated events (i.e., cross-correlation coefficients greater than approximately 0.7), but has difficulty estimating correlation values between poorly correlated events. In physical systems however, the highly correlated microseismic events are the events of interest. Therefore, this data-driven method has shown potential for improving domestic Energy and Resource Security, advancing the current methods available to image subsurface EGS thermal reservoirs to enhance the availability of clean and reliable energy to the national electric grid.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Fibre-optic based DAS technology for Long-term Seismic Monitoring of Carbon Capture and Storage Projects

Long-term seismic monitoring of carbon capture and storage projects (CCS) is needed to verify that the injected gas is safely stored in the subsurface until permanence can be assured. Conventional surface seismic monitoring techniques are usually expensive, require highly invasive surface operations, and need significant time investments on the part of personnel for both the field effort and processing the acquired data. For these reasons, permanent reservoir monitoring (PRM) technologies are preferred, as they can offer a cost-effective solution for long-term monitoring. In this context, we have developed and trialed the use of distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) coupled to permanent rotary sources, called surface orbital vibrators (SOV), with the objective to build a continuous monitoring array for CCS projects.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Introduction to Special Section: Machine Learning for Image-based Geologic Interpretation

Image-based geological interpretation has been a labor-intensive and time-consuming process because it requires well-trained geoscientists to identify geological structures, features, and textures from various types of images. These images include scanning electron microscopic images, optical microscopic images, optical photos, resistivity images, seismic volumes, remote-sensing images, etc. With fast-evolving machine learning (ML) technology and computing power in recent decades, computers can achieve nearhuman-level to super-human-level performance with scalable high efficiency in the computer vision field. These technological revolutions facilitated image-based geological interpretation in petroleum exploration and production. For example, a fault picking method applied to 3-D seismic volume data using deep learning can achieve superior performance in comparison to conventional auto-picking methods. In addition, under the new normal of low oil prices, the petroleum industry seeks cost-effective strategies such as automating traditionally labor-intensive processes. Nevertheless, the potential of applying ML to geological image interpretation is still facing a few key challenges including data scarcity, data distribution, poor data and/or label quality, data leakage, learning algorithms, model architecture, training methodologies, testing and evaluation metrics, hyper-parameters optimization, model drift, production deployment, and the like.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Narrow-Band Least-Squares Infrasound Array Processing

Infrasound data from arrays can be used to detect, locate, and quantify a variety of natural and anthropogenic sources from local to remote distances. However, many array processing methods use a single broad frequency range to process the data, which can lead to signals of interest being missed due to the choice of frequency limits or simultaneous clutter sources. In this work, we introduce a new open-source Python code that processes infrasound array data in multiple sequential narrow frequency bands using the least-squares approach. We test our algorithm on a few examples of natural sources (volcanic eruptions, mass movements, and bolides) for a variety of array configurations. Our method reduces the need to choose frequency limits for processing, which may result in missed signals, and it is parallelized to decrease the computational burden. Improvements of our narrow-band least-squares algorithm over broad-band least-squares processing include the ability to distinguish between multiple simultaneous sources if distinct in their frequency content (e.g., microbarom or surf vs. volcanic eruption), the ability to track changes in frequency content of a signal through time, and a decreased need to fine-tune frequency limits for processing. We incorporate a measure of planarity of the wavefield across the array (sigma tau, στ) as well as the ability to utilize the robust least trimmed squares algorithm to improve signal processing and insight into array performance. Our implementation allows for more detailed characterization of infrasound signals recorded at arrays that can improve monitoring and enhance research capabilities.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Temporal Explosion Source Processes of Declared Nuclear Tests in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea

In this work we highlight a preliminary temporal source analysis of the six declared Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) nuclear tests. We use regional seismic data to estimate relative source time functions (RSTFs) via iterative time-domain deconvolution (Ammon, 2006; Pippin, 2022) of vertical-component ground motions recorded within 2000 km of the source region. Since RSTFs are ideally independent of site and propagation effects, their amplitude spectrum is equivalent to the source spectral ratio, but they also retain phase information. We compare observed RSTFs (in the time and frequency domains) with synthetic RSTFs derived from the Mueller & Murphy (1971) explosion source model. The resolution of these time functions varies, however, we generally obtain high-quality results within the limitations of the recording broadband instrumentation. The results indicate that this method effectively preserves source time-history information that can be used for temporal analysis of remote nuclear explosions. This preliminary analysis is intended to assess the viability of using time-domain deconvolution methods for extracting temporal source information.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

The EGS Collab Project – Stimulations at Two Depths

The EGS Collab project, supported by the US Department of Energy, is performing intensively monitored rock stimulation and flow tests at the 10-m scale in an underground research laboratory to address challenges in implementing enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Data and observations from the field tests are compared to simulations to understand processes and build confidence in numerical modeling of the processes. We have completed Experiment 1 (of 3), which examined hydraulic fracturing in a well-characterized underground fractured phyllite test bed at a depth of approximately 1.5 km at the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) in Lead, South Dakota. Testbed characterization included fracture mapping, borehole acoustic and optical televiewers, full waveform sonic, conductivity, resistivity, temperature, campaign p- and s-wave investigations and electrical resistance tomography. Borehole geophysical techniques including passive seismic, continuous active source seismic monitoring, electrical resistance tomography, fiber-based distributed strain, distributed temperature, and distributed acoustic monitoring, were used to carefully monitor stimulation events and flow tests. More than a dozen stimulations and nearly one year of flow tests were performed. Quality data and detailed observations were collected and analyzed during stimulation and water flow tests using ambient temperature and chilled water. We achieved adaptive control of the tests using real-time monitoring and rapid dissemination of data and near-real-time simulation. More detailed numerical simulation was performed to answer key experimental design questions, forecast fracture propagation trajectories and extents, and analyze and evaluate results. Data are freely available from the Geothermal Data Repository. Experiment 2 examines the potential for hydraulic shearing in amphibolite at a depth of about 1.25 km at SURF. This site has a different set of stress and fracture conditions than Experiment 1. The Experiment 2 testbed consists of nine subhorizontal boreholes configured in two fans of two boreholes which surround the testbed and contain grouted-in electrical resistance tomography, seismic sensors, active seismic sources and distributed fiber sensors. A “five-spot” set of test wells that extends from a custom mined alcove includes an injection well and four production/monitoring wells. The testbed was characterized geophysically and hydrologically, and three stimulations have been performed using the Step-Rate Injection Method for Fracture In-Situ Properties (SIMFIP) tool to measure strains, and a new strain quantifying tool (downhole robotic strain analysis tool -DORSA) was deployed in a monitoring hole during stimulation. Real-time data were broadcast during stimulations to allow real-time response to arising issues.

EGS Collab, Enhanced Geothermal Systems, EGS, fiel↗

Fully Autonomous Multiplet Event Detection: Application to Local-Distance Monitoring of Blood Falls Seismicity

We apply a fully autonomous icequake detection methodology to a single day of high-sample rate (200 Hz) seismic network data recorded from the terminus of Taylor Glacier, ANT that temporally coincided with a brine release episode near Blood Falls (May 13, 2014). We demonstrate a statistically validated procedure to assemble waveforms triggered by icequakes into populations of clusters linked by intra-event waveform similarity. Our processing methodology implements a noise-adaptive power detector coupled with a complete-linkage clustering algorithm and noise-adaptive correlation detector. This detector-chain reveals a population of 20 multiplet sequences that includes ~150 icequakes and produces zero false alarms on the concurrent, diurnally variable noise. Our results are very promising for identifying changes in background seismicity associated with the presence or absence of brine release episodes. We thereby suggest that our methodology could be applied to longer time periods to establish a brine-release monitoring program for Blood Falls that is based on icequake detections.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Experimental evidence for dynamic friction on rock fractures from frequency-dependent nonlinear hysteresis and harmonic generation: Low-Frequency Torsional Dynamic Friction

Frictional properties affect the propagation of high-amplitude seismic waves across rock fractures and faults. Laboratory evidence suggests that these properties can be measured in active seismic surveys, potentially offering a route to characterizing friction in situ. Here, we present experimental results from a subresonance torsional modulus and attenuation apparatus that utilizes micron-scale sinusoidal oscillations to probe the nonlinear stress-strain relation at a range of strain amplitudes and rates. Nonlinear effects are further quantified using harmonic distortion; however, time series data best illuminate underlying physical processes. The low-frequency stress-strain hysteretic loops show stiffening at the sinusoid's static ends, but stiffening is reduced above a threshold frequency. This shape is determined by harmonic generation in the strain; the stress signal has no harmonics, confirming that the fractured sample is the source of the nonlinearity. These qualitative observations suggest the presence of rate-dependent friction and are consistent between fractures in three different rock types. We propose that static friction at the low strain rate part of the cycle, when given sufficient “healing” time at low oscillation frequencies, causes this stiffening cusp shape in the hysteresis loop. While rate-and-state friction is commonly used to represent dynamic friction, it cannot capture static friction or negative slip velocities. So we implement another dynamic friction model, based on the work of Dahl, which describes this process and produces similar results. Since the two models have a similar form, parameterizations of field data could constraint fault model inputs, such as specific location velocity strengthening or weakening properties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Earthquake Ground Motion Simulations on the Sierra High-Performance Computing System

Physics-based three-dimensional (3D) numerical simulations of earthquake ground motions provide an alternative to reliance on limited and highly scattered empirical data and models for seismic hazard assessment. We performed fully 3D earthquake ground motion simulations on the Sierra and Lassen high-performance computing (HPC) platforms at Livermore Computing. These new HPC platforms feature graphics processing unit (GPU) acceleration for improved performance. Ground motions were computed with SW4, a summation-by-parts finite difference code for anelastic wave propagation. SW4 was recently enhanced to run efficiently on GPU-accelerated platforms. We found that SW4 runs almost fifty (50) times faster in terms of node-hours on new GPU-accelerated platforms compared to conventional central processing unit (CPU) platforms with agreement of computed ground motion time-series to the full single precision which they are written. We focused on moment magnitude, M W , 7.0 earthquakes on the Hayward Fault. We were able to run three simulations resolving ground motions from static displacements (0 Hz) to frequencies of 10 Hz (wavelengths as short as 50 meters) making these Sierra calculations the highest resolution regional-scale earthquake simulations ever made for California. Results show good agreement between simulated ground motion intensities (peak ground velocity and acceleration, spectral response) and empirical models, including frequencies above 10 Hz. On Lassen we were able to run a suite of 52 M W 7.0 Hayward Fault earthquake simulations resolved 0-5 Hz for both plane-layered, one-dimensional (1D) and 3D Earth models. These simulations were used to develop a methodology for characterizing and removing systematic path and site effects which bias ground motion intensities. These simulations using the newly enhanced SW4 code allow us to run higher resolution seismic simulations with shorter run times, providing a new capability for seismic hazard and risk studies. Results were presented at scientific conferences and workshops and two publications are being prepared based on work performed in this project.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Multi-INT Signature Collection and Exploitation for Security Los Alamos LDRD Report

This project demonstrates the feasibility of a 2-D passive tracking capability for ground-based and airborne moving sources using multi-INT signal processing of acoustic and seismic signals. We leveraged the recent DDSTE-supported investment in rapid deployable sensors (the Los Alamos Rapid-deployable Sensor Array—LARSA), and used uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAV) as a data source. Moving source types are characterized by their variability with time (exemplified but not limited to the Doppler shift of a passing vehicle) and the signatures used for detection should have similar characteristics. We have demonstrated that time-varying sensor signatures (TVS) combined with time-stable sensor signatures provide a more complete understanding of moving source behavior and drive towards path prediction. Importantly, we have collected a new, relevant LANL dataset of moving sources (small UAV flights and vehicle movement), developed new signatures, and demonstrated a capability to identify, track and forecast the position of TVS.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Volcano infrasound: progress and future directions

Over the past two decades (2000–2020), volcano infrasound (acoustic waves with frequencies less than 20 Hz propagating in the atmosphere) has evolved from an area of academic research to a useful monitoring tool. As a result, infrasound is routinely used by volcano observatories around the world to detect, locate, and characterize volcanic activity. It is particularly useful in confirming subaerial activity and monitoring remote eruptions, and it has shown promise in forecasting paroxysmal activity at open-vent systems. Fundamental research on volcano infrasound is providing substantial new insights on eruption dynamics and volcanic processes and will continue to do so over the next decade. The increased availability of infrasound sensors will expand observations of varied eruption styles, and the associated increase in data volume will make machine learning workflows more feasible. More sophisticated modeling will be applied to examine infrasound source and propagation effects from local to global distances, leading to improved infrasound-derived estimates of eruption properties. Future work will use infrasound to detect, locate, and characterize moving flows, such as pyroclastic density currents, lahars, rockfalls, lava flows, and avalanches. Infrasound observations will be further integrated with other data streams, such as seismic, ground- and satellite-based thermal and visual imagery, geodetic, lightning, and gas data. The volcano infrasound community should continue efforts to make data and codes accessible and to improve diversity, equity, and inclusion in the field. In summary, the next decade of volcano infrasound research will continue to advance our understanding of complex volcano processes through increased data availability, sensor technologies, enhanced modeling capabilities, and novel data analysis methods that will improve hazard detection and mitigation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Study of seismicity around Toba area based on relocation hypocenter result from BMKG catalogue

Toba area has complex tectonic setting attracting many earth scientists to study and understand tectonic and geological process or setting. The area is affected by oblique subduction zone, Renun Sumatran fault sub segment and some volcanoes that are near it. The earthquake catalogue provided by BMKG from April, 2009 to December, 2011 must be relocated firstly to get the precise hypocenter. We used catalogue data of P and S phase or P phase only and double-difference method to relocate the earthquakes. The results show hypocenter position enhancement that can be interpreted tectonically. The earthquakes after relocation relating to the Sumatran fault, subduction zone, volcanoes and seismic activities beneath Toba caldera can be mapped clearly. The relocated hypocenters in this study are very important to provide information for seismic hazard assessment and disaster mitigation study.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗